Categories 22

  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • The ‘Tiktok ban’ law is ‘not just a Tiktok ban’ says Sacks. It could be the new Patriot Act. E170: Tech's Vibe Shift, TikTok ban debate, Vertical AI boom, Florida bans lab-grown meat & more - YouTube ‘The worst ideas are bipartisan.’ This one was 50-0. Not 47.3, not 42.8. There was hardly any debate. The may have been ‘stampeded’ into passing it.
    ‘My alarm bells go off when DC acts with this kind of unanimity, because the only time they do that, when they become a uniparty, is when the national security state wants some new power. Entry into Iraq War, Patriot Act.’
    ‘They always cite classification when they don’t want the public to know something.'
    If this is about we can't have our apps in China but their are here, and we want to stop that, put it in a trade bill, said Sacks. This isn't in a trade bill, it just gives new powers to the government to define foreign adversary controlled applications and websites.
    What does this app do that other apps don't do? It hasn't been shown.
    There's so many AGs going after Facebook and Insta and other tech companies, making their bones, and could go after ByteDance, yet none are. Why not? and suddenly 100% support for this law.
    Remedy not narrowly tailored, and law will lead to weaponization.
    The Patriot Act was written with sunset provisions, but although it expired in 2020 without being reauthorized, government agencies retain most of the authorities granted by the act.
    Secret Tiktok Ban Hearings / Lobbying - YouTube
    Although there are political differences among people, ‘we should be able to come together on these issues like ... mass surveillance’. ‘It is a major threat to your rights.’
    They want to ‘collect data that can’t be collected right now.'
    The idea that TikTok is dangeous because it seeds misinformation or discontent in America. ‘No one seeds more discontent than the MSM in the US. They pit political parties against each other on a constant basis.’
    ‘Vague language is always alarming ... because everyone who is under this legislation is at risk.’
    FOSS developers are in every country including foreign adversaries. ‘That doesn’t mean they have misaligned influence.'
    Tiktok may be becoming a problem for ‘the Israeli establishiment.’ Billionaires.
    The work of journalists going undercover. Those involved are ... taking money from the pro-Israel lobby.
    ADL policing speech. APAC funding politiicans, who can fund and run a candidate against you if they don't like your platform or speech.
    #Politics
    Trudeau's new online censorship law - Problems with Bill C-63 / the Online Arms Law - YouTube

    Another State Does Away w/Mandatory Bar Exam for Attorneys - YouTube

    DOJ has sued Apple over iPhone monopoly.
    One argument: When Apple encounters competitive threats, it doesn't lower prices, but rather imposes a ‘series of shapeshifting rules and restrictions in its App Store guidelines and dev agreements.’ ... ‘Blocks, essentially, that forces people to stay.’
    ‘Peak Apple’ has been said by some.
    To a challenge that Android phone users couldn't send videos to people they knew, Cook responded ‘Buy your mom an iPhone.’
    The issue has been talked about in terms of government wants Apple to be integrative with nonApple products. Apple has always had this policy. Consumers are paying for this product.
    A sort of ‘democrat’ view is that ‘Apple will keep abusing power until they’re checked' and so they have to be checked. They want ‘the industry to stand for more interoperability’.
    Point of reference is when Microsoft (which had 95% of the market at that time for PCs) tried to dominate search with a browser, and how they would have continued. 'They had substantial market power and what they were in the process of doing was the smart thing from the business standpoint. They would have killed the competing browser, then baked their own into Windows, and with that you control search. They were trying to break html and openStandards and using all kinds of funky code. They were telling computer makers that they could get Windows for cheap (or free?) with the browser bundle, or pay $150 each computer without the browser monopoly thing. Same thing Google does on phones with Android basically.
    I would probably say that for that particular issue, it is fine as long as the company is small (10% of market or less). Another tactic would be for Android to deny interrelation with Apple until Apple permits it.

    Reddit IPOd. How will they monetize?

    UK Police Force told: 'Women who criticise gender ideology should be treated as terrorists' - YouTube
    #Terrorism

    Google fined 250 million euros for using news articles to train chatbot | BBC News - YouTube

    A law in US will reduce real estate agent commissions by shifting it from (current) seller pays 6% in a contract when he lists, to buyer and seller each pay 2% or 3% or so. No buyer will agree to this, it is considered. They can look on Redfin and go look at the house themselves.
    The current way is considered to be a kind of a racket, which only works because the seller pays it and is sort of force to.
    You buy a house for $1m and then sell it for $1.1, but have to pay $60k to an agent. A great service by an agent might get $1.2 whereas a bad one might get 800k.
    They might remove half the fees in the industry this way.
    Agents might start to work hourly. Or they might change a fee rather than a commission, for various homebuying services. Or a flat rate plus percentage ($1m house means $10k, plus 10% over that price ... or and 20% for the next hundred K over the price), flat fee guaranteed plus commission for performance.
    Opportunity for startups, leveraging AI.


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 15,2024
  • State Court Says Local Officers Can't Spy From Above Without a Warrant - YouTube
    Alaska constitution. US Constitution actually has language to allow doing this, it says if you can fly over and look down then you can fly over and look down and take pictures.
    Aircraft must have a warrant to use a camera with zoom lens.
    In 2012, police flew over the yard to take a look, and saw ‘unidentifyable plants' and got a warrant on that (how?) to enter the property. Several appeals.
    Alaska Supreme court: ‘The Alaska Constitution protects the right to be free of unreasonable searches. The fact that a random person might catch a glimpse of your yard while flying from one place to another does not make it reasonable for law enforcement officials to take to the skies and train high powered optics on the private space right outside your home without a warrant.’
    Just because people can see something doesn't mean police can take a telephoto lens and all these different sensors and things (heat sensors) and do anything.
    The Constitutions talks about what steps the government can and cannot take to surveil you, and you have to ask yourself what kinds of things would we want them doing or not doing. ... You want law enforcement to enforce the laws, but they get a tip somebody's growing something, so they fly over and take pictures with a giant lens.
    Are all Americans fascinated with Alaska?
    #StateConstitutions

    House passes TikTok bill: What investors need to know - YouTube
    Is it actually starting? A trend which will protect people from tracking and spying?
    ‘Tiktok should be banned,' one commenter said, because of their extraordinary ability to influence public opinion. Will we see Congress actually do something to make a thing that should be actually happen?

    He Brought A Nailgun To A Protest - What Is The Law? - YouTube
    It can't fire 152.4meters per second, so not a ‘firearm’. (Note that some nailguns can achieve over that, particlarly powder-actuated ones.)
    It is a weapon carried to a public meeting. It is a weapon carried for a dangerous purpose (unless he went and got it for self-defense after getting in an altercation).
    He was carrying a weapon while committing another crime, if he was assaulting. Then he would be assaulting with a weapon (just drawing a fist or pointing a projectile weapon is assualt).



  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 11,2024
  • Lawyer: Bad Copyright Claims Cost Rick Beato a Ton - YouTube
    ‘clearly fair use’ during an interview to talk about the thing.

    Is Oregon's controversial drug decriminalization plan working? - YouTube

    Crime Lab Scientist Deleted and Tampered w/DNA Results in 600 Cases - YouTube
    The findings ‘put all of her work in question’. 29 years. Data retention and quality control measures were violated, showing how specious these are having them as the reliable part of a system.
    When DNA, blood, fingerprint testing is done, it's just sent to the prosecutor or whoever, it's not delivered into the court. The person doing the testing doesn't come into the court and participate and say who they are and what they found. The person is not, as perhaps they should be, a witness. They can't be cross-examined, an integral part of reliable justice systems. If a witness seems not credible you can cross-examine them on that. If the woman tester here were later called to court regarding a test she did, she could be cross-examined on her reliability as a witness because she had these manipulated/deleted tests.
    How many retrials must now be done? where the convicted may not have had true evidence presented, and at the least didn't get a fair trial. It looks like 652 trials going back to 2008. Some of the convicted would have already been sentenced and served time in jail and been released.
    'She deleted and altered data that concealed her tampering with controls ... her failure to troubleshoot issues within the testing process ... failed to provide thorough documentation in the case record related to certain tests ... cut corners ...
    CBI apparently doesn occasionally find their agents have issues. But this is 29 years later.
    Steven noted that one way this sort of thing happens is that in law enforcement (like other things) some people start to believe that their hunches are magically correct and ‘though the evidence doesn’t point towards this guy I know they did it, so we're going to construct a case around this person.' And police might be coming to this tester and saying Hey I know you did some tests but this isn't helping us, and might pressure her to give them evidence that helps their case because they're sure the person did it, and maybe they make her job hard for her if she doesn't cooperate. Or maybe it's laziness on her part.
    There are a lot of steps in the travel of a piece of evidence, through storage, transport, packaging, testing, between buildings, data entry, retrieval. Sometimes you hear about how something wasn't done properly for various reasons. Maybe the guys just wanted to finish work to go out for a beer because it was somebody's birthday so they cut corners, whatever.


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 05,2024
  • Terrorism charges laid against man accused in Edmonton City Hall attack - YouTube

    Cops Use 'Find My iPhone' App, Search Wrong House, Hit w/$3.8M Verdict - YouTube
    Can you think of an easier way to get $4m?
    The phone location wasn't precise and they thought it was. The phone they were looking for was somewhere else.
    A new Colorado law (2022 police reform bill) allows people to sue police over violations of their state constitutional rights. Sue in state court. (Fed constitutional rights, you have to show it's a clearly established right, otherwise the police can say ‘qualified immunity’ which made it difficult to pursue wrongs, and that's why Colorado did this).
    Woke up to an alarm, military style police, armored vehicle, police dog, etc. ‘on her lawn’. They busted into the garage even though she told them how to open the door. They busted ceiling tiles to get into the attic. Broke some other things. 'Biggest damage to her sense of safety.' 'Has difficulty sleeping.' 'Moved to a different neighborhood.'
    ACLU of Colorado. Her verdict appears to be against not the PD but 2 employees. Can she collect?
    #StateConstitutionalRights

    Algos could be regulated to not conduce echo-chambers.
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 01,2024
  • Why a Senate bill could see Pornhub blocked in Canada | TECH NEWS - YouTube
    Digital IDs or facial recognition.

    FBI informant Smirnov arrested again over charges on false Hunter Biden reports - YouTube
    Same charges?

    Two Montreal universities launch lawsuits against the Quebec government - YouTube
    For tuition hikes.

    Dominican hospital charges Atlanta couple $7,100, refuses to give itemized bill - YouTube

    Case Adjourned When Jurors Can't Be Found Who Are Willing to Convict - YouTube
    Voir dire. $500 fine for feeding the homeless without the city's permission in Houston.
    90 tickets have been issued since March against volunteers of this organization (not an individual) which serves meals near the city library. City has lost every case.
    Voir dire often comes up in murder and assault in cases where people have strong feelings about things, and in capital punishment.
    Jury nulificaiton can also happen when a jury agrees about guilt but still aquit. Often they disagree with the law. Is this guy a criminal or a good neighbor?
    Sometimes a jury says, 'The prosecution has one version, and the defence has a completely different version, and I'm actually buying THAT version.'
    Sometimes the person has excuses for what they've done, and that excuse might not rise to where the court's gonna say ‘If you find this you can acquit.’ But a jury looking at the facts might say say I understand that what they did was illegal, but I understand why they did it, and I think I woulda done it, you woulda done it, I think reasonable people would've done that, considering the circumstances. So I can't vote to convict that person.

    Company That Sweeps Up License Plate Data Faces Class Action Trial in May - YouTube
    They use license plate scanners, drive around, develop location data on cars and sell that to marketers. 22m plates per month are scanned by this company.
    Not consistent with civil liberties, it is argued. Mass surveilance program. Detailed picture of people lives, home, other peoples' homes, doctors, place of worship, businesses they frequent.
    Is there something intrusive about this? Sweeping up the info on a plate, not just the person who happens to be there at that moment unconnected to the person anyway. But building a detailed profile of people.
    Defense says no one has been directly harmed.
    According to a Cali 2016 law that says if you sue for a broken law, you can get minimum $2500. 22m people times that. The plaintiff may also want equable relief ie to make them stop.

    Teachers sue Gavin Newsom for forcing them to lie about students' gender - YouTube (Fox)

    City to Install Speed Cameras on Interstate for 'Safety' - YouTube
    'Other cities that have implemented similar measures have seen a massive increase in revenue.' A money printing machine, paid for by citizens, many from out of state. You don't have to pay the machine a salary either.

    "There's NO such thing as PARENTAL RIGHTS in Canada" - YouTube
    ‘It’s dangerous and harmful' to do what he doesn't want lawmakers to do, and the way they talk about it is ‘hateful.’ The people in question are ‘just trying to be kids.’
    Commenter: "Someone with rights but no responsibilities is a tyrant.
    Someone with responsibilities but no rights is a slave."

    HOA sends him 1 dozen-plus parking tickets, but he doesn’t own a car - YouTube
    These things should mandatorily have a papertrail of who touched a procedure, with either their name or id number on a list on the actual document the person gets.

    Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and Altman began a year ago, says Musk biographer Walter Isaacson - YouTube
    Motivations? Relationship started in 2012. Musk worried about AI getting out of control. They had made OpenAI opensource, nonprofit. Falling out and Altman decided it wasn't going to be any longer opensource or nonprofit. Musk wanted to go back to original documents about what the project was, and saw, the biographer says, they would wind up in court. Altman had offered Musk shares and said he could make money off it. Musk doesn't want money really, he wants OpenAI opened up to opensource, as the original documents said, so it can't run out of control.
    You can't take an opensource, nonprofit and turn it into what they're doing now (something pretty much controlled by Microsoft), is the issue, the biographer said.
    They had a bunch of founding documents, the emails between the two men talking about it.
    #Musk
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • Air Canada found liable for chatbot’s bad advice on plane tickets - YouTube
    AC said they are not responsible for something their employees or workers, even a chatbot, say. The chatbot is not a separate legal entity, he argued.
    Airline's Insane Defense in Lawsuit it Lost - YouTube

    The Flipper Zero Ban is Insane - YouTube
    No evidence one was ever used to steal cars in Canada. Can't even really do it, it seems, unless you have the fob and trigger it outside range of the car, then go to the car and open it.
    100k cars were stolen in Canada in 2022, and there's a lot of meetings on the subject in Ottawa this week.

    College student tracking Taylor Swift’s jets fires back in legal letter - YouTube
    What do you do when someone makes themselves a personal nuisance? Generally, laws are created to prevent these actions, but how would we define the wrong here?
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024
  • Police Now Need a Warrant to Access Ring Footage - YouTube

    Causing Someone to Stop Walking is Now a Crime in Vegas - YouTube

    Blinding headlights are growing problem on US roads - YouTube

    Is he for real? Destruction of evidence isn't viewed as criminal act by Trudeau government - YouTube

    City Sues to Keep Its Police Chase Policy Hidden - YouTube
    Because police have rules for when they will continue a police chase and when they will not pursue further becaues negatives outweigh positives.
    But now a bystander was struck and killed during a chase. They want to know if the police were following their policy at the time.
    They have the Freedom and Information Act in Texas.

    Anna Paulina Luna Asks If Hillary Clinton Or Stacey Abrams Should Be Charged With 'Insurrection' - YouTube
    #Terrorism #Politics

    Ford government's wage restraint law deemed unconstitutional - YouTube
    Bill 124. Workers could be eligible for $billions in backpay.
    'Violated the collective bargaining rights of workers.'
    ‘unconstitutional bill passed in 2019.’
    #Canada
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024
  • Section230 repeal (to have more censorship), both sides seem to want it in Congress (at least the lack of reliability). Current grandstanding, maybe even support, but we'll regret where it goes, which is more censorship. Scapegoating, moral panic, chance to grandstand?
    Instead of having lots of small players, you have a handful, so it's easier to blame or attack them. ‘If you apply a very small error rate to a very large number (3.5b monthly), even if you say .01% error rate, that’s 3m unintended consequences. A law of large numbers. In China they mandate what products (mostly video games) children can use and how many hours per day.
    Every time there's an alleged harm, a bully whateer, they're going to try to pin it on SM, to show that they consumed something that led or contributed to this. Disproportionate relative to harm.
    There's linups around the world to sue these companies if we let them be sued. Flood of litigation. The companies will have to content moderate even stricter, just as a corporate act. ‘That Republican content caused a situation that caused this harm’ so they censor more of it.
    Do you think there will still be conversations online about gun ownership enthusiasm (or even second amendment rights)? or will it result every time in a plaintiffs lawsuit every time there's a shooting, not going after the person who made the post, but the platform.
    Lawyers looking at all that money they could extract, and their fees is 10 or 20% of $100s of millions. Bringing bullying, sexual cases to jury trials and they're going to think they're ‘on the right side of history.’ There will be lawyers specialized in this kind of case. Funded cases by hedgefunds.
    The rules on the field were X and people were trying to follow those rules.

    Elon ruled against in pay compensation package completion
    The company went up $50b. When Elon negotiated, no one thought he could hit all these things. They've 10xed. He got no guaranteed compensation, but instead he only got any compensation if he hit ‘crazy’ milestones. Decent or good performance wouldn't have got him anything. TSLA had the largest short position ever. He had tried 3 CEOs and thought none would be able to do it. He was sleeping on the factory floor. So massively positively affected shareholders. The deal was a win-win. 73 or 80% of shareholders approved the deal. It's the deal most shareholders of any company would want. Most CEOs would not take this deal. Most CEOs have compensation packages counter to shareholder value, and instead they raise debt, increasing the enterprise value by loading up on debt, and then do repurchase plans. Debt doesn't do good for shareholders but it does for CEO. Wile Elon spent the last 5 years making TSLA go 10x.
    A shareholder (9 shares) ('the nameplace for the lawfirm going after Elon') sued and won that the pay package didn't go through (Elon can appeal).
    Delaware had highly predictable governance, but now maybe not, said Chamath.
    Will ‘100%’ have a ripple effect on how CEOs do their contracts. They will want something totally gameable where they have 90% support on the surface. EPS targets for CEOs (Elon did it on pure profit and performance) meaning debt). What companies will chose Delaware?
    Is this part of Biden's ‘We gotta get this guy’ thing? Sacks asked. Delaware is a Biden state. FCC is spending $15k per person to do wireless internet when Starlink would cost them 1500. Why? And they're gonna go out and buy Starlink while they're waiting anyway.
    Lawyers may take $19b of the plaintiff's winnings as a fee, by far the largest gain for lawyers in the Delaware Chancery Court history.
    Musk may reincorporate in Texas, but they would have to pay corporate tax rather than 0 corporate tax in Delaware but like $250k in a fee.
    For a pay contract to work for a CEO there has to be a possibility of pain as well as gain, otherwise, like the megagrants of CEOs in the past, they will just think about how rich (very rich or more rich than that) their pay will be. Patrick Boyle highlighted.

    Vince McMahon’s resignation from TKO ‘not enough’: Attorney - YouTube
    She was late 30s, he was sending sexualized content of her around without complaint from her, and now years later she ‘wants to end the culture of cooercive control’ where ‘she feld imprisoned.’
    Don't we need some nice clear and hard definitions of what can be illegal treatment? or it could be on the other side, a constitutional protection or a law against being slandered in a lawsuit for treatment that was accepted at the time. Howver, that might not be beneficial to lawyers who make a lot off this ambiguity.


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • More provinces looking to ban phones in classrooms - YouTube

    Squatters turn Beverly Hills mansion into party house - YouTube
    Keeping neighbors u p with noise.
    The police were called to attend but the people came up with a false lease. The courts won't do anything, the real estate agent says, because squatters have rights.
    Police swarm Beverly Crest mansion occupied by squatters - YouTube
    Someone called saying someone with a knife was entering the building.
    But the police couldn't evict them. Detained and released. ‘If someone enters your house while you’re away and changes the locks there's nothing you can do about it.' LA.

    Palm Springs home values in "free-fall" after city cracks down on Airbnb - YouTube

    Federal lawsuit claims common fridge failures are corporate fraud - YouTube

    Hong Kong court orders Chinese property developer Evergrande to liquidate | DW News - YouTube

    "Should It Be Illegal?" - Controversy Over Taylor Swift AI Nude Images - YouTube
    Things that a minority of people can see immediately, it requires actually happening (and sometimes thereby passing the point of proper control) for the magority to even acknowledge. The only rational solution becomes only possible to them to consider at that point.

    I-Team: Study: Nearly 1,000 Georgians wrongly arrested due to false positive drug field tests - YouTube

    TSN confirms names of former WJC players facing charges - YouTube
    No one has details of statements what happened in the room, but after a date with one hockey player and consensual sex in a hotel room, allegedly other guys entered and had other kinds of relations alleged to be assault.
    Recently, I listened to a bballer talk about how different it is for them. That sport pays a lot relatively, and they just pay their girls and they also just call the shots. Paying means buying them things or whatever. Acceptance of the thing could be interpreted to mean consent.

    Toronto-area teacher’s aide acquitted of sexual assault says her reputation is ruined - YouTube
    Apparently without even questioning the story told by the student, who was known to ‘have a propensity’ for ‘violence and falsehood’. People assume that if a person is charged the police have reason to do so. ‘How the people we trusted are the ones that failed us the most.’

    Official arrested for speaking at her own meeting. Her rights were violated, judge says - YouTube
    She was criticizing country sheriff at an open meeting. Told she was disrupting the public meeting and removed in handcuffs. Charges later dropped. She filed suit against them. ‘This is not ... Putin’s [or] ... AlAdas' country. We do not arrest our political opponents because of something they said.'
    Ohio has a law that law. Misdemeanor where you can use obstructive speech or conduct outrage the sensibilities of the group.
    An inmate had died and she and the sheriff were going back and forth about it.
    Happened a year and a half ago, now making headlines.


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 30,2024

  • Macy's and Sunglass Hut.

    Raped him with a shank pressed against his neck when he went to the bathroom.

     
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 26,2024
  • Invoking Emergencies Act against convoy protests was unreasonable, court rules - YouTube
    Infringed 'Charter rights’. 2B Freedom of Expression. 8 Search and Seizure. Didn't find any infringement on Movement.
    Finding was very different than the the ‘public inquiry’, the Merlo Commission which had found that what the government did was ok.
    At the time, there was a lot of talk about the ‘CSIS defintion of a naitonal threat.’ Justice Mosley said it doesn't matter if CSIS says that, although it might have weight and be considered. ... The seizing and freezing of bank accounts affected people beyond those they were trying to affect. ... Unreasonable invocation of the Emergencies Act.
    Judge said this is why it's important to have thes public interest litigants [CCLA] to bring these cases forward.
    #Canada #HumanRights
    The CCLA hadn't asked for costs or any remedy other than a declaration.
    ‘Canadian government’ expected to appeal.
    What happens when a court finds a democratic government violates the Constitution? Can a person who is a PM/President retain authority after they have publicly broken the law against many people and violated a whole nation? and how can they hope to afterwards talk about other people as criminals?
    Trudeau government has been saying that ‘economic harm’ can constitute ‘a national threat to Canada.’ Nope. ‘Gaslighting’ Court rules Trudeau's invocation of Emergencies Act was UNREASONABLE and UNCONSTITUTIONAL - YouTube
    Government lost on all measures, not just one. Everything they did, basically, was illegal (unconstitutional) (except perhaps againts Movement).
    The Trudeau Regime Just Got a Whole Lot Worse - YouTube

    FBI DEFIES Judge’s Order To Turn Over Seth Rich’s Laptop! - YouTube

    Supreme Court may reel in power of federal agencies in major case - YouTube
    Medicine, air quality. Who has power to decide? The government-created agencies or the courts, in deciding how to interpret laws? Fishing agency forces fishing boats to carry a government observer on their boat and to pay for it. Currently, courts defer to these types of agencies. ‘That’s where the government almost automatically wins. The government's argument just has to be within the realm of acceptibility, the realm of plausibility.' But the fishermen are saying the agency is overstepping. Lower judges are instructed they have to rule in the government's favor. 40-year precedent. Decision expected in June.
    Healthcare, things won't ‘move as smoothly.’
    #CivilRights
    We investigated the German farmer protests - YouTube

    Supreme Court Vacates Rulings Against Vaccine Mandates - YouTube
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • Court Orders Police to Give Man's Phone Back After 175M Failed Password Attempts - YouTube
    In Ottawa, Canada. How long should they be allowed to keep it? How many passcode guesses? They wanted to keep the phones for 2 years. They use a dictionary of passwords, leetspeak, and numbers. Takes about days to test 30m passcodes, but depends if the password is in the dictionary. Software (Mentalist) allows them to generate passcodes customized to what's known about the suspect.
    The judge is framing it as a property rights question, not a privacy rights question.

    Proposed Law Would Block Use of Bodycam Footage on YouTube - YouTube
    ‘Seeks to protect women’ and ‘young’ individuals also languaged, ‘young women’. Open public records act requests. Leveraged for gains on SM.

    State Court OKs Warrantless Searches Based on 'Nonverbal' Gestures - YouTube
    Wyoming.
    ‘Based on believed’ consent. What if the person who opens the door is just a visitor? Good faith belief. ‘Believed authority to consent.’ A smart officer will now just not ask if the residence is theirs, but will just say ‘Can I come in?’ and on ‘good faith’ believe the person had authority to consent nonverbally. If a man shrugs his shoulders, they can assume that means ‘I don’t care go ahead and search' when actually he meant ‘Why are you asking me that? its’ not my place' when he shrugged. Things that before would have meant the police don't have consent now mean the police do have.

    Court Allows Suit to be Served Via Bitcoin Wallet - YouTube
    #Crypto

    Canadian customs officers could soon be based in U.S. for the first time - YouTube
    ‘Preclearance.’
    Canadian guards would arrest people wanted under US law.
    Border guards and their lawyers didn't evne know about this until journalists at CBC just called them to comment on the story. They have a lot of concerns, and don't know anything about how it would work.
    Are all laws in Canada passed in secret from anyone they might affect? because it seems to be this way a lot.

    900 Wrongful Convictions in British Post Office Scandal - YouTube
    #UK
    Not accused. Convicted. Because of a faulty computer system. Left them ‘bankrupt and bronken.’ Fixed after a TV docudrama roused public support, not before, not even after then news published on it. The State owned post office maintained that Horizon (their software) was reliable and said the branch managers were guilty. Some went to prison, some were bankrupt trying to defend themselves, became community pariahs, accused of stealing, marriages fell apart.
    Similar problem happened years ago in Michigan, Lehto said, to handle what they wanted to be an easy way to deal with unemployment claims, flagging people falsely of receiving fraudlently obtained unemployment money, and prosecuted them, saying they had to pay the money back. Class actions were served. Trusting machines to do our thinking for us, and make decisions for us.

    Huge Civil Asset Forfeiture Win for the Marine - YouTube
    #Nevada
    How many civil asset forfeitures happen in the US?

    Man Sues 27 Women for Comments on 'Are We Dating the Same Guy?' - YouTube
    Apparently there are Facebook groups like this for regions/cities. Sometimes it's someone's husband or wife.
    Relatedly, the state is looking at new legislation to prevent sharing of personal information online.

    GREAT 2A DECISION: Federal Judge Rules Post Offices ARE NOT Sensitive Places! - YouTube
    (Didn't watch.)

    The current legislation limiting big tech is not meaningful. Of all the big fines handed out to the big tech companies last year, the biggest fine was paid off in 7 days. Andy Yen. You can't change those companies behavior unless you're forced to. DMA coming into force this year in Europe though.

    Saskatoon passengers landing in Orlando told they 'entered the country illegally' - YouTube
    A staff member opened the wrong door so they didn't pass through customs.

    Madonna sued by fans in New York over late concert start time | BBC News - YouTube

    Is the ‘Panemic Treaty’ the next ‘Patriot Act’?

    Reports Ireland govt is trying to make new hate speech laws so citizens can't complain about immigration, which perhaps they majority oppose?
    Will Sin Fein become increasingly the nationalist party?

    Police Called To Stop Filming During Piano Livestream - YouTube
    This is something legislatures are going to have to decide. Should people be unrestricted in where they film/livestream? Do public spaces belong to people who don't care about others who may not want to be in their videos? or does it belong to people who would limit the ability of others to film?
    #CivilRights
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08,2024
  • Ohio men awarded $300K after they were thrown out of council meeting, arrested - YouTube

    'MY HOUSE NOW': Handyman finds creative way to force out squatters - YouTube



  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 02,2024
  • Disney loses famous Mickey Mouse copyright in 2024, along with many others - YouTube
    After pressuring courts to (aquiese and) modify copyright law how many times?

    When is it legal to dox someone? When they have 50k followers, is it of general interest?


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023
  • Rite Aid to be barred from using facial recognition under proposed FTC settlement - YouTube
    They falsely tagged consumers as shoplifters.
    They took images and processed them with facial recognition without notifying customers.
    The Dolan family has gotten in trouble for using facial recognition for banning people they didn't like from Madison Square Garden.
    ‘Drug stores are not a place where people should be recorded.’
    Is there space in the market for ‘privacy stores', stores that explicitly state with signage they don't record or track you?

    Couple Loses the Multimillion Dollar African 'Mask Case' - YouTube
    You can't go get some of the money from something you used to own, that was later sold by someone else, France.
    The previous owners failed to exercise due diligence in evaluating thie artistic and historical value.
    They had said the art dealer who bought it mislead them. He said he didn't know it would be worth that much. When he found it was worth like $4m, he offered them $300k after the fact. He bought it for like $150.

    New Law Requires Police to Tell You Why They Pulled You Over - YouTube
    Cali starting Jan 1. 'For among other reasons, just so that they have a reason.' Otherwise, in some places, they'll just pull you over and ask you all kinds of questions, and may aggravate you, and then later tell you Oh you did this. Cali police will have to state their reason before asking any quesion on a subject.
    Now, in Cali, if they say, Hey your headlight is out, and then they say Where you comin from? you will realize that quesiton has nothing to do with the reason they pulled you over.
    To stop ‘pretextual stops’.
    ‘Do you know why I pulled you over’ puts you on the defensive immediately, and there is a tension there.
    Oakland Privacy.
    With the new law, the officer can still withhold the reason if he believes it is ‘necassary to protect life or property from imminent threat.'
    Constitutionally (Federal), police don't have to tell you why they pulled you over, the Supreme Court has said (they've also said police don't have to tell you why you're being arrested). State laws may require it.
    This is only California.
    #California

    Woman Sued for $250K by Singer's Reps to Stop Her Merchandise Sales - YouTube
    ‘That would be one of the problems with allowing people to be served by email.’ Some states (including Illinois) allow this. Their email landed in her junkmail folder and she missed the 21-day window. I have email accounts I don't check for years.
    The country singer called the woman personally and said they do have a team that goes after internional companies fake merch sellers who make millions, but he knows she's not doing that. He said it made him sick to his stomach. He sent her $11k, double what she's lost to medical bills for a heart condition. He's also going to make a similar profile on Tumblr, sell it and donate the proceeds to the woman. He invited her to a concert where he'll invite her on stage and give her a hug and apologize in person.
    Most summons are done in person. Some (like for big companies with a resident reciever for these mails) can be served by mail, with their cooperation. You can consent to electronic service, but you have to consent, in other states (not Illinois).
    Letho points out a good scam, where you can create a gmail account for the person you want to serve, serve them by email to that account, then log into that account and say you received it, and then the real person would have to prove that that's not their email account.

    Landlords Required To Build EV Chargers At Renters' Request New Illinois Law! - YouTube

    Giuliani Files for Bankruptcy - YouTube
    Intentional torts not discharged with bankruptcy, so he'll maintain the debt. He was found to have falsely accused 2 2020 election workers of fascilitating fraud. $168m in damages. ??

    SiriusXM Sued for How Hard it is to Cancel - YouTube

    Gas Station Near Airport Accused of Price Gouging - YouTube

    Controversial Florida law sends cities scrambling for new council members - YouTube
    Sharing net worth.

    Huge NEWS in Julian Assange Case: Lawsuit Against CIA for SPYING on Attorneys Will Proceed | Rising - YouTube
    #Assange

    Nightmare Squatters Inspire New Anti-Squatting Law - YouTube
    Better crafted than past failed lawsuits. First line of the suit is that we need independent journalism for democracy to work. It's a lawsuit not just about money. It's a gripe about input and output.
    The output has included verbatim text from NYT articles.
    The debate will be about fair use, the defense against copyright infringement.
    Millions of articles.
    Timing. Sue early. With Google during it's rise, it took journalism and payed nothing, until later we just consider that normal. Challenge assumptions before they become the norm.

    New York Times sues AI companies over copyright infringement - YouTube
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • Safe Deposit Box Case Heard by Ninth Circuit - YouTube
    Fourth Amendment versus unreasonalbe search and seizer. And Fifth for having private property taken without compensation. Institute for Justice. Allegation is FBI has no probable cause to open boxes or after opening them, to keep the stuff. And FBI lost all kinds of stuff they had documented in order to not lose. IJ wants the appeals court to difinitively state that the FBI violated individuals' rights, and to force Fedgov to distroy copies it made of private things like medical documents etc. ‘Oh you want your document back here you go’ but they have a copy. FBI did need to document the contents of the boxes in order to properly give the contents back to the owners, Lehto speculated, otherwise people could just show up and say Hey I'm box number 5 and they couldn't say what was in the box to confirm. However, that seems false, because if they prove they had the box through identity and rental records that should be the only thing needed.

    Sheriff Letter IN FAVOR of Civil Asset Forfeiture - YouTube

    Law deems Illegal immigration a state crime in Texas - YouTube
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 12,2023
  • China Fines Everything: $3 Vegetables Sale=$15K Fine, GitHub Visit=$300K Fine, Puppy Joke=$2M Fine - YouTube

    Sony Steals Customers' Purchased Content - Piracy is COMPLETELY JUSTIFIED! - YouTube

    High Court Judge Arrested and Charged - YouTube
    Tasmania, assault and emotional abuse. Media not allowed, court restricted publishing name of victim in accordance with family violence act. A crime that wouldn't get any headlines if it had just been an ordinary person off the street, because it was a Supreme Court justice they escorted him through back door etc.

    Amazon Sued for Selling Bathroom 'Spycam' - YouTube
    ‘Amazon cannot claim shock.' Spycam designed to look like a towel hook. Underage woman in her bathroom, a foreign exchange student.

    Google Loses App Store Antitrust Fight With Fortnite Maker Epic Games - YouTube

    83-Year-Old Woman Handcuffed and Forced to Kneel During Stop Can Sue the Police - YouTube
    Google and Apple as gatekeepers. Thumb on the scale. By jury. The jury understood the issues and case and made a decision. In past cases they used a judge. Google will appeal, so its an issue that'll be settled in years. Google says when you use Android you can use any app etc, and that's technically true but in practice not what Google makes it sound like, which was part of the case.

    New Hampshire Man John DeLee is Not Guilty of Bar Fight Murder: Defense - YouTube
    This is just the argument.
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fp4Hljh9PKc

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDWdXXclQvs

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GKg1UucxNc

    The sheriff isn´t allowed to keep it, so they give it to the Fed who does their due dillegence for 20% and then returns 80% to the sheriff. ´The financial motive makes it inconsistent with due process.' Ẃe keep getting robbed by the Sheriff.' The TRO burden isn´t met. ‘Prove to us you’re innocent.' ‘Uncontroverted.’ ‘All you have is self-serving statements.’

    ‘Law enforcement, across the entire USA, represent the single greatest threat to our personal safety and well being,' said a commenter. Both the almost only prevention of crime organizations and also perhaps the largest criminal organizations.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Take_Care_of_Maya

    This case was decided today, 7 years after the events, siding with the family. Is law enforcement or health care the greatest harm in the USA? Like police, its something that generally serves but also is widely evidenced to harm.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqhPUmyrfGI

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0GGvr_2XOg

    DEA et al, keeping it. ‘There’s nothing different than being robbed. Someone come up with a gun and take your money.'

    Between 2000 and 2016, a Jacksonville's airport's customs seized $108m in cash.

    The foundation of war is economics. - Musk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqBWhQ09qNM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s-BEj97SxI

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7tp4UZgxKg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4S3QQOO02U

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkVQ4-JM2aQ

     
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OzkkNb2cpo

    Arrested for misplacing a document at a council meeting, after arranging a petition for the resignation of the mayor.

    She couldn't sue the city council officials because they have qualified immunity, and they had made sufficient probable cause to arrest her (that she had perhaps stolen her document).

    “Backdoor censorship."

    The police in that city arrested her and then released her a day later, dropping the charges. Ie she wasn't taken to trial. But she as the defendent has been trying to have the court to take it to trial so she can prove she had been wronged through law/police.

    She's trying to say that the qualified immunity does not fit this case.

    It's a ‘what if’ case. What if we allow city councils and authorities to do this.

    Institute of Justice is working on it. Is IoJ the new ACLU?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KH3VYCh7z5o

    Is good faith enough?

    Some people were killed at home, and the police requested anyone (among 1b search users) who had searched that address.

    There is little about a person that isn't revealed by reviewing a 1-month search history, including things they tell no one because they're private (and sometimes they would otherwise not even address).

    The majority recognized people have a constitutional right to privacy in their internet search querries, and that these impact speech rights.

    Before the Amendments were written, there was a ‘general warrant’ where a judge gave police a general warrant to go around, knock on random doors and say ‘we have a warrant’ and barge in. Since the Amendment, police need a specific warrant where they say who or what they are looking for.

    EFF disappointed with the results of the case.

    Go to your search results for the month and look through them, and see if you would like strangers/authorities to have that info. Now consider that of your family members.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpU9LdxO9aE

    The court took the trial on the road and it was hosted at a highschool. It's much easier to go see.

    The argument police/city used was “We didn't need a warrant because we were just flying a drone over your property.” They also used “an anonymous tip by a neighbor" for an impetus. Their argument was that the drone was not touching the ground.

    The town council is using tax dollars and “don't even seem to care” if this case is taken to the Supreme court and the costs associated?

    Another what if case. Every town council will buy a drone and regularly fly it over every property all the time and look for things.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lietcrJy1MU

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jg7W296G2ik

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rnzQ6A2Nv8

    Said to be to combat planned obsolesence and companies selling cars that they know won't last. The bill also has things to do with right to repair.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJcsXRhArA8

    What about TV? Phones? Junk food? Exercise?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8MnGgsOKjqs

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hHOFZUCC5E

    Can't take drone images ‘for surveilance’. Originally journalists had sued to be able to and won, but on appeal this. It's legal only up to 8 feet off the ground and you can't use ‘ampificaiton’ (zoom).

    ‘And nothing in the No-Fly provisions has anything to do with speech or expression. These are flight restrictions, not speech restrictions.’

    #Drones #Privacy

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQfloQlSmFg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MirpRkmruOg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8mFzFaGE-c

    First in US. Seattle PD can't knowingly lie, saying it undermines public trust in police (not outweighed, said mayor). We might also say in society in general, since police will lie to one friend saying his friend said he did things and thereby pressure him into ratting on his friend. People have falsely confessed to murder because they were lied to and browbeaten in this way. The can still lie for felonies but not minor property crimes.

    Seattle PD can't make a false statement to press or in any way that ‘shocks the conscience’ so we don't know what that means yet.

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aU9dJgFa8Dc

    Not much progress against monopoly.

    Ecosystem, rather than just different parts of a business.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROtcckDw4Nc

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvp9AX0HaMw

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXQrlbfyu1E

    A juror had said that the defendent deserves to go to jail because they're rich, white, and entitled. Another juror told the judge this, but it was a lie. Juror26 said 'm standing up for white people.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UScNk39xUTk

    WHO is not elected.

    ‘What’s with all the secrecy?'

    It's all happening by default, if no one does anything. Just by not doing anything, something happens.

    100k signatures in the UK, but still no public hearing. Canada and Australia also got more than enough signatures.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pttMVC3ia9Y

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzHo5TM--6A

    The racial equality policy written by NY DA Bragg aims at equality of outcome, not treating people equally. The statement the victim of the original crime made reads like he was the aggressor and the perpetrator was the victim, the lawyer says. ‘Evidence mischaracterized.’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0NWv1R-0ws

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqsUH2-AgA8

    Any streamer who makes $10k would have to register with the Can govt and then hand over info on their listeners.

    In the vid, they also comment on how hate laws are used by the government to oppress groups who oppose them.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeQI30LyajM

    Usually people complain when Cali passes a new law.

    This is a ‘backspace’ for data brokers (those who buy and sell personal data). With one single request all the companies have to delete it at once. 500 data brokers are already registered with California.

    Most states sell your drivers licence info to the companies who collect this data. Post offices sell your new address when you change address. Post offices sell info on which people have recently moved to an area.

    ‘We’ll sell it if you promise to use it properly.'

    'The burden of policing data brokers shouldn't be on consumers.'

    People can go get your property data, taxes, whether you're up to date.

    Note: if you write your name and address a certain way, you will be able to track from which original source your address for junk mail was leaked/sold.

    JPM net income up 24-35% (lower figure excludes First Republic purchase).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EknWd3rtdR8

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 25,2023
  • Court Says Cops Can Come Up w/Probable Cause AFTER the Arrest - YouTube 

    How did the 8th Circuit get to that (clearly unconstitutional)?


    Tinder launches $500-per-month subscription to its most active users - YouTube 

    Will ‘Chinese spies’ become the next pretense for invasion of privacy? The two pillars of the past 20 years, one is basically defunct and the other seems waning through counter-opinion/saviness of it being a pretense.

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 18,2023
  • Cops Were Wrong to Extend Traffic Stop by 3 Minutes - YouTube 

    “A seizure violates the 4th Amendment when an officer extends a traffic stop with tasks unrelated to the traffic mission, absent independent reasonable suspicion. ”So, if they pull you over for a tail light being out, once they've notified you of that and perhaps ticketed you, then that traffic stop should end. If they sit there and start fishing, ie throwing questions at the owner and stalling, that would be ‘extending the traffic stop unreasonably.’ Other tasks are unlawful if they add time to the stop and they are otherwise unsupported by independent reasonable suspicion of wrongdoing. It might be an issue entering things as evidence found during that extra time. - 9th Circuit Court of Appeals of California

    End-to-End Encryption Will Be an Historical Footnote! - YouTube 

    Legal mass wiretapping? Under the banner of stopping CSE, of course. Currently, there are no other options.

    Apple does content scanning on devices, using AI, as a compromise with 3letters. A12 Neural Engine, the same thing that was used to remove YouTube videos that mentioned the pandemic, violence, guns, etc, in iPhones since iPhone10 2017.

    Employers now must post salary ranges on all job listings across New York state - YouTube 

  • Afroman being sued by officers after they raided his house | ABCNL - YouTube 

    Violation of privacy, claimed.

    Congress rejects a CBDC, the Fed's building one anyway - YouTube 

    Fed can do this without Congressional authorization because they don't depend on it for funding. Fed can 'write laws' and lots, while Congress is held by by opposition parties.

    Burford Capital Eyes 37,000% Return in Argentina Win - YouTube 

    Litigation funding. American lawyers (and trial?) against Argentinian government.



    Monopolizing search by making deals with phone makers to be the default search.

    Of all the things Google and other tech giants are bad for doing, this is one thing they are not bad for. Google Search is the best. When I can't get results using non-spy search engines, I go to Google and it is an excellent product. What would be nice would be competing excellent products, for different types of search (Google provides search for specific information queries of a certain type, and they also put answers in the results, stock graphs, etc, but they are useless for finding interesting and new things, blogs, bloggers, non-commercial things). Or they could take up the privacy issue with Google.

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04,2023


  • Listing things as ‘on sale’ without actually discounting the price. They raise the price to double the price for a short time, then discount it back to the original $20 price.

    JCPenny, Foot Locker, Eddit Bauer facing lawsuits currently.

    Reportedly, the financial damange is worse if they lose market share to competitors (monetary damange and bad PR), worse than if they didn't do this price

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ghmxnK1LUg

    trick. Even if it's like $20m. Because these suits will likely disappear.

    Cali has a regulation where the older price has to have been for 3 months, but reportedly this doesn't really prevent the stores.


    Huawei Building Secret Network for Chips: Trade Group - YouTube 

    Shenzhen. To get around US sanctions.



    Violence won in Denmark?



    Secret recording of insurance lobbyist reveals plan to change CA insurance law - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023

  • How Ken Griffin got a law changed in Florida - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 14,2023







  • Printer Ink, It's a SCAM - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 05,2023

  • Congressmen have a state in the system through stocks, but sleezy things happen.

    Another option is to limit politicians power over the economy.

    Politicians have info and know what's coming. And they maybe aren't good at actually punishing their own members.

    Difference between trading and (broad-based) investing.

    CNBC on-air hosts can't own individual securities either (company policy). They can own mutual funds and ETFs and other kinds of securities.

    Diminimism. 5% versus 50% of portfolio.

    ...


    ..


    "As Seen On TV" companies accused of knocking off products made by small inventors - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 19,2023

  • ...


    ...

    - YouTube  (video not available now)

    ...


    If the courts side with OpenAI and Meta, will writers be too soured to write new works going forward?
    ...

    It used to be just open season at Twitter, rubber stamping Fisa requests, said Musk. Now they will still comply with Fisa requests, but they will review them and it has to be something they agree with is a danger to the public. “We're the only social media company doing that, as far as I know.” “A lot of this does depend on the willingness of the company to oppose government demands.” “I don't know if we can do more than that. We'll try to be as transparent as possible, so that other citizens can raise the alarm bells to oppose the government.”

    ...

    “It's not so much that the regulators are instructing Tesla and SpaceX, but more that since we have to think about things internally and then justify it TO regulators, it makes us just think about the problem more, and in thinking about the problem more it makes its safer. As opposed to the regulators specifically pointing out the ways to make it safer. It just forces us to think about it more.” - Musk

    ...


    “We have been duped by big tech into believing that ... either that we participate online and participate in transacting business and communicating on the internet but we wave all of our privacy and property rights, or we simply don't engage in activity on the internet. That is a false choice ...” - Ryan Clarkson
    Yet no one has shown us alternatives to the online things we use.

    ...



    Including that mergers should not eliminate substantial competition or increase risk of coordination, eliminate a potential entrant in a concentrated market, and substantially lessen competition by creating a firm that controls products its rivals use to compete.

    This document isn't law, but rather a summary of how the FTC sees the law and how they'll try to act upon it. But for people looking at it, it might be so restrictive it's not worth looking at. Companies can say ‘I’m going to challenge it, I don't think it's right.'
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 14,2023

  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 03,2023
  • Oregon finally legalizes pumping your own gas | Hacker News 

  • “Large corps weaponize ... this undemocratic dispute settlement regime ...” - Elizabeth Warren

    “Sedes” removed from territorial jurisdictions, and can set their own regulatory standards, tax policy, court system (basically run their own government).

    At first the people of the country didn't even know this was happening. ... Then there was massive uprising. Indiginous societies ... A new leader was elected on a campaign to overturn this law .. did so. But then the Trade Agreement (that no one really knew about), that empower corporations to be able to challenge democratic policies, outside of the court system, this isn't in a US or Honduran court, it's in a private tribunal of private sector lawyers, three arbitrators who will decide ...

    “The company is using this [lawsuit for $12b, 1/3 of the country's budget, which would ‘bankrupt’ the country] as a tool to try to bully the government.”

  • Making a website for them.

    She hasn't even made any websites yet, but she said she's afraid she'd be forced to make websites for something she opposes which is gay marriage. SCOTUS 6-3 said she can't be forced to do so because it is her speech right.

    This is not about her religeon. She objected on speech grounds. Where is the line? Is the couple's speech, which is through a website designer, also compromised?


  • Supreme Court Strikes Down Student Loan Forgiveness | Biden’s Next Move - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 26,2023
  • Multas por no inscribir a los recién nacidos en Nicaragua - YouTube 

  • DeSantis.

    China, Russia, Venezuela, Iran, NK, Cuba, Syria. They would have to rent.

    Florida is top state for foreign buyers and China is top source of buyers. Real estate is the second most important revenue source in Florida after tourism.

    25 states have or are looking at laws preventing Chinese state actors from buying farmland. This idea is popular in both parties.

  • Facial recognition, predictive policing, realtime biometric surveillance in public places. “High risk applications” that they want guardrails or bans.

    Looking at forcing developers to insert things that will prevent it from creating illegal material. Another thing is making companies publish summaries of the copyright content they used.

  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 11,2023
  • Lawfare versus Trump continues. Almost every time I've seen a headline with Trump for the past couple years it's been him being charged with something. Years after the start of the accusations, the evidence is found to be scant or nonexistent, according to later headlines.
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 01,2023
  • Expresidente Mauricio Funes, condenado a 14 años de cárcel por negociar con pandillas en El Salvador - YouTube 

  • Amazon let workers access videos from people's houses when it wasn't necessary to do their jobs. Unfettered access.

    Alexa kept voice and other info on kids for years, violating their privacy rights, according to finding.
  • May, 2023
  • May 18,2023

  • May, 2023
  • May 06,2023
  • Idaho criminalizes helping minors travel out of state to get an abortion - YouTube 
  • May, 2023
  • May 01,2023
  • Australians seeking compensation for being 'allegedly injured from COVID vaccines’ - Sky News Australia
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 15,2023
  • Headlines for past week had US military leak of war plans re Ukraine. Later headlines about possibly identifying the leak (through online accounts?). Headlines about gov changing how it handles online information.

    Most people commented saying it was a way, or would be used as a way, to justify taking more civil rights away.

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 08,2023

  • "Restrict Act" being debated in Congress.

    ?Ban VPNs, impose fines?

     
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 07,2023
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 30,2023
  • US Copyright Office Issues Rules For Generative AI - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 29,2023
  • EU’s Ban On Tattoo Ink: Breaking Down the Chemistry - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 27,2023
  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Responds To House GOP's Just-Passed Parents' Bill Of Rights - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 22,2023

  • The Germans I know are not impressed by the government doing this over the past months.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 15,2023
  • India allows foreign law firms to set up offices, move seen as 'game changer' | Latest English News - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 12,2023
  • 6 suspects, ages 11-14, in custody after woman beaten unconscious in brutal attack - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 11,2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 08,2023

  • "It improves transparency" said lawmaker, to require news and other orgs that receive more that 20% of their rev from external to register as 'foreign agents'.

     

  • As a response to the administering of mRNA Covid vaccines under 'emergency use authorization' (at the time) without receiving FDA approval. 

    "This was fast-tracked. There's no liability. There's no access to the data. The risk-benefit analysis has not been done. There's no informed consent."

     
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 06,2023


  •  
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 02,2023

  • (not this isn't news. It's from like 2014, but recently popped up on my feeds.)

    It's legal in Florida. "But you better be squeaky clean otherwise you give them another reason because you draw attention to yourself."

    He hangs a plastic bag outside his driver's window but the window stays closed.

    In the bag are license, registration, and insurance. All the ID he'll need.

    "Because the second you open your window, they can say they smell alcohol or drugs emitting from the vehicle. And the moment that you say a word, they can say that your speech was slurred."

    "A lot of people are uncomfortable with the idea that police can just stop you for no reason. And if you're not comfortable with that, this is a good way of handling a checkpoint. And there are good cops and there are bad cops. The purpose of this flyer is to protect innocent people from bad cops."



  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 01,2023
  • Matt Walsh Joins Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves As State Bans Gender Reassignment Surgery For Minors - YouTube 
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 13,2023

  • To give Parliament power to overturn Supreme Court decisions and appoint judges.

    80k people in central TA.

    Seems to have something to do with LGBT at the moment.

  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 03,2023
  • Trump's Testimony To New York AG's Fraud Probe Investigators - YouTube  
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 20,2023

  • Pre-installed apps, restricted ability to remove apps, measures to ensure search is Google.
     
    Renewed hopes for Indian startups.
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 30,2022

  • Over half of customers had delays recently.

    With no delay compensation in the US yet, it's cheaper to give bad service and even cancel a flight than to operate it in certain situations. Eu has this already. Congress may act.

  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 18,2022

  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 09,2022
  • Public interviews have given Sam Bankman-Fried an opportunity to set up a defense, says professor - YouTube 
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 08,2022

  • I think this is just about carried cash, not all 'wealth' as they titled it, but I haven't watched the full vid yet. However, you could make the point that cash seized from a home is another category.
     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 05,2022
  • It's illegal under EU law to platform RT, Greenwald said
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 04,2022

  • Veil for women is the main focus, and what women can say. (Also anything that is Islamic/Sharia) like alcohol, mingling or men and women.

    Morality police really formed in early 1990s.

    Iranians also have been using apps to notify each other where the checkpoints are set up where they check for moral clothing use.

    Iranian protests (began in September, several hundred have died so far in multiple protest events) are still making headlines.

    Other countries have similar things. "Any country where you have strict codes of behavior enforced ... [Saudi Arabia although it has eased restrictions for women over recent years], Sudan, Malaysia. Enforcing public order sometimes.

     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 02,2022
  • Indonesia set to penalize sex outside marriage, reportedly
  • Qatar did a lot to ensure Temporary Worker Immigrants visas weren't tied to a specific employer (which led to abuses like if you don't do this you're fired and you'll be shipped out of the country)
     
    Where is the line between bargains and exploitation?

    Do they have safety? Food? Shelter?

    What is the direction of the progress? How much further is there to go? Who will care about this specific question in 2 or 3 years?

    The Truth of the Matter: World Cup Geopolitics - YouTube 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 27,2022
  • (Old: The baby name Xaea12 would have violated Cali law because it contains characters not in the modern English alphabet, so Elon and Grimes changed it to X AE A-XI)

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 26,2022

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 16,2022

  • Rent control soon, they say.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 15,2022

  • And smart glasses.

      
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 01,2022

  • (Teresa Vicente, Phil of Law professor at University of Mercia)


     
     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 24,2022

  • Recently some random person posted about the Alex Jones trial, asking what he said that was different from MSM or government agencies.
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 17,2022

  • A grocery store (or other private property) can be forced to host speech, according to common law.

    SM platforms are different from newspapers because what is published in a newspaper is so because the newspaper made a choice to publish it. It is the newspaper's speech.

    SM platforms are primarily conduits.

    Parades make choices about who goes in them. This is their first amendment right, so they can discriminate against gays. They can't be forced to make a choice, akin to a newspaper. The parade organizer is more like a newspaper.

    Schools can be forced to host military parades, although they can of course speak out against them.

    SM have no space considerations. Forcing a newspaper or tv station to publish something means they can't publish something else which means they lose money on that space, and curtails the owners ability to speak in its own form.

    The SC has been very clear on protecting from forced affiliation claims. Plus SM platforms can actively say what they want against opinions. Coerced endorsement.

    For newspapers or TV or parades, do editorial decisions occur after the speech has occurred or before? After? That is not what an editor does.

    SM platforms have constantly said they aren't the speaker. That it isn't their speech. (Section 230.)

    Publishers make a decision to repeat something someone else said. Now they're saying it too. Now you're a publisher.

    Common Carrier doctrine dates back before US founding, in common law. It vests states with the power to impose nondiscrimination obligations on communication and transportation providers who hold themselves to serve all members of the public without individualized bargaining. (Telegraph invented in 1830 was the first communications service subjected to Common Carrier at the end of the 19th C. Legislators were concerned private entities that controlled this new tech would use their power to manipulate the flow of info to the public when it served their economic or political self-interest. Western Union (the largest) sometimes refused to carry messages from journalists that competed with its ally AP. The first law required them to receive dispatches to and from any individual on the payment of their usual charges to transmit them with impartiality and good faith. And to transmit them in the order they were received.

    Phone companies are privileged by law to filter obscene or harassing expression. Spam calling. And they often do. So phone companies aren't quite required to accept all transmissions.
    Public transport companies can kick people off their vehicles. They're forced to accept everybody but can be forced to revoke that.

    SM is the dominant means of communication (although not exclusive).

    Commerce, friendship, family, speech, persuasion, picketing, pamphleting, concerts, protests. There a public interest in the social media communication.
     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 22,2022

  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 20,2022
  • Mexico arrests former top prosecutor over 2014 missing students case • FRANCE 24 English - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 09,2022

  • Eyesbrows raised for: lots going to IRS, so they can do more active work perhaps, lots of government oversight of drug companies, emphasis on climate initiatives when other issues seem to some people more pressing.

    $740b, so taxes will be raising, it's been said, during a time when Americans might not want taxes raised.
     
  • FBI Searches Trump's Home in Unprecedented Move - YouTube

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 24,2022
  • Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade

    1971 - 1973
     
  • Supreme Court strikes NY law (as unconstitutional) that required permits for concealed guns

    Before, New Yorkers had to show they had self-defense needs to get the permit.

    NY mayor not happy, nor Biden. It affects 40 states, Biden said.

    NY can still require people get licenses on condition of things like background checks and mental health records, said an analyst. They can also limit guns in places like overcroweded places, courts, maybe trains.

    Getting a gun is the same as before in NY. You still have to go through the same process to get a license. What is different is that anyone who has that license can concealed carry.

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 22,2022

  • Expanding the tax base. Sector is highly unregulated.

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 16,2022
  • Japan announced up to $2000 and 1 year jail terms for online insults

    They already have the law, but it calls for a fine of $75 and no more than 30 days in jail.

    An actress killed herself two years ago, and in last days she was sharing some of the insults she had received online. This law change is considered to be related.

    Lawmakers added a provision that they would reexamine the law in 3 years, and if the impact was positive it would remain.

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 10,2022
  • Thailand, which had very strict drug laws, legalized cannabis

    People can grow it at home, and can consume it. The government is giving away 1m seedlings. It's being sold in stores.

    However, possession of extracts stronger than 0.2% THC are not allowed.

  • 2 British men, who were fighting in Ukraine against Russia, sentenced to death after surrender during Mariupol battle

    Russia calls them foreign mercenaries. It's expected they won't be executed, but will be held as diplomatic tools. Sentenced in Donetsk, Ukraine, occupied by Russian forces. Maybe a prisoner swap.

    The men had been in Ukraine since 2017, serving in the army there, reportedly. One has a well-established life there and a Ukrainian wife.

    Russia does not follow any international order, some say, and this can be kept in mind. The court is recognized by Russia and no other countries. Western MSM refers to it as a show trial.

    The men have 30 days to appeal.

     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 25,2022
  • An African man who was imprisoned in Guantanamo is suing Canada for allegedly supplying the US with false info about him

    He suffered various types of torture and maltreatment in the US torture prison.
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 12,2022
  • Taiwan considering harsher chip protection industry laws

    Everyone wants to buy chip manufacturers now. Taiwan is concerned China will obtain it's chip tech.

    Wion reported Taiwan accounts for 94% of the world's most advanced semi manufacturing capacities.

    How can you protect against economic espionage and talent poaching?

     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 07,2022
  • New Supreme Court justice in US

    First black woman, but for many the interesting thing is she was a public defender before.

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 21,2022

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 16,2022
  • Lobola (bride price) is now mandatory in Uganda

    ... with a clause empowering marriage officers to find out whether a bride price was paid. 

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 14,2022
  • "We saw Chapter 7, the authority given under Chapter 7, being used now as a weapon to route a whole family [Gadafi's], to commit the murders that occurred in the country ... bombs" - Robert Mugabe, President of Zimbabwe at UN General Assembly 67th Session, October 1, 20212

    Chapter 7 of NATO to operate in Libya in protection of civilians.

    This speech is seeing virality now in light of Ukraine.

    Also interesting, it could just be the sources I have in front of me, but it seems Africa / Africans are having more of a voice on Ukraine than I remember them having. Their leader's speeches in places like UN counsels, their increased number of vloggers and bloggers. Also, it might be Africa will be able to argue with a lot of authority, given their experience over the past 100 years.


     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 09,2022
  • Biden issued an executive order on crypto

    ... and Bitcoin went up. His order was to look into it and come up with what to do about it, it looks like.

    It's being seen by many in the asset class as a defining or watershed moment (just because it's getting this kind of attention and treatment, not because there's anything concrete, which of course there's not).

    There had been questions about crypto. How to regulate it? Who's going to regulate it? What kind of posture should the US have in terms of competitiveness and innovation in this technology?

    People say the markets like certainty, even if sometimes it's something not positive, it's the certainty that the markets react positively to.

    What does this mean as a new competitive infrastructure for the US? How does the US stay strong in this industry, while still addressing the risks?

    How does the dollar work in this new world? How is it kept safe and sound, so this can grow and flourish?

    US dollar competitiveness on the internet is a strategic national issue.

    Bipartisan engagement about this issue.

    One of the questions is whether the US should do a central bank digital currency.

    China has a stable coin, but it has a lot of surveillance in it.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 01,2022
  • Reportedly, Latvia and Czech Republic have made it illegal to support Russia

    That basically means Speech.

    25% of Latvia is Russians.

    Czech said 1-3 years possible for supporting Russia.

  • In Brazil, they amended the constitution to guarantee data protection as a fundamental right

    The guys on Techlore said they didn't seen anything like that possibly happening in the States for decades. The only thing they could see was if they expanded the Fourth Amendment to include digital property.

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 15,2022
  • PM Trudeau invokes 'emergencies act' against truckers

    Gives extra powers to police and Fed gov can now freeze bank accounts of the truckers and anyone associated with them (participating in roadblock, funding them), It also means they can revoke insurance on the trucks.

    Reportedly, it also expands tax-funded terrorism and money-laundering laws to include crowdfunding websites.

    GiveSendGo has ignored an order and given some of the millions raised for the trucker protest (from countries all over).

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 12,2022
  • US gov now considering disinformation (free speech) as terrorism

    MDM (mis-, dis-, and mal-information)

    People who spread this could be considered 'threat actors.' If your words could lead to a protest against the gov, and that protest could lead to violence, they could label people who spoke those words domestic terrorists.

    Iverson points out that many things that were originally labelled 'misinformation' turned out to be true over the past year or two.

    Kim Iversen: FREE SPEECH Now Labeled As Domestic Terrorism By DHS. Working With BIG TECH To Surveil? - YouTube  
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 29,2022
  • Minister who crafted Canadian Charter suing government for violating it

    "I'm the only first minister (of those who drafted the Charter in the early 1980s) left alive who was at that conference and helped draft these freedoms and these rights and the Constitution Act of 1982 itself. And I do this very reluctantly. I've been watching this thing for two years, I've been speaking out about it ... and I've come to the conclusion now that I must as a Canadian and as one of the writers and founders of the Constitution Act of 1982, not only speak about it. I must act about it. I must show Canadians that I'm so concerned as a citizen and as a former first minister ... that I must take action against my own government because they have violated rights that I and others helped craft in 1981-1982." - Brian Peckford

    "There is a section in Charter of Rights and Freedoms which allows governments to override these freedoms in unusual circumstance. And I remember this very well when we were crafting the constitution. These unusual circumstances, because of putting it in the constitution, it's not a Federal act or a provincial act, it's in a constitution which is supposed to enshrine permanent values and give glue to the country. So this Section One can only be used, and I remember this well, in times of peril, in times of war and insurrection, or when the State is in peril, when the existence of the State is in peril."

    "Even in the extreme circumstance that you try to make Section One apply ... then there are four tests that had to be met in order for it to apply. That means it must be demonstrably justified that what the action is is worthwhile. In other words, some kind of cost-benefit analysis must be done by law, it must be done within reasonable limits, and fourthly and most importantly, all those three must be done within the context of a free and democratic society. And a free and democratic society to me means parliamentary democracy in our country. We have 14 parliaments, and they have all been completely silent. There's no parliamentary committee anywhere in any of those 14 parliaments looking at what's happening to our country. There are the people's representatives."

    He said that newspapers in the country, which in the past did carry his letters when he wanted to comment on some public policy, but since he started talking this way, they have not carried his letters, or even acknowledged that they've received his letters.

    He noted that lots of news organizations in the country have received money from the government. Over $600m.

    His legal team is basing their claim on the freedom of mobility guarantee (since he has to specify something). He commented that in Canada, the second largest country by land mass, freedom of travel was very important. The government has banned travel by plane and train (and sometimes highways, I've heard). "In other words, we can't travel across our own nation."

    (He said they also considered freedom of association, and freedom of assembly. "Lots of people and churches were prevented from getting together.") (And there's currently a curfew in Quebec.)

    "If us as first ministers had wanted to just have protecting rights and freedoms that could easily be changed, we wouldn't have gone to the constitution. We would have said, 'Just put an act in the Federal parliament, put acts in all the parliaments, and then up to the whim of the political party of the time to change it. We wanted to safeguard it, so it would be beyond the whim of political machinations and therefore could not be changed, only in the most extreme circumstances."

    He also noted that the Oaks Test (coming from a Supreme Court case in 1986) about what Section One meant, and [in the current situation] the lower courts have not looked at this test. This is highly unusual because the courts always look to the precedent set by the highest court ... in determining what they will do in their case. The absence of seeing the Oaks test in the lower courts is very troubling and is the other reason we must take this kind of action at this time."

    "And this is where I ... come down and say, 'We have to exhaust all of the civilized legal processes that we set up under our constitution. ..."

    When asked what the current process was, if not by parliamentary discussion and decision, for the government to take these actions, ever the Charter rights, Peckford said, "Here's where the most insidious part of this equation comes into play. What the governments have done is used, in many cases, existing legislation under which they have the power to make regulation. So they've used existing emergencies, legislation, and inflated it enough or interpreted it in a manner that they can also use in this circumstance and therefore issue additional regulation. And then in other cases, they did not fully explain or have a parliamentary committee look at other amendments when they opened their parliament and closed it within two or three days or a week. In other words, sufficient debate wasn't allowed to understand the repercussions of what they were doing, when they were giving more power to the minister and more power to the public health officer."

    He said it was worse than just not allowing debate, "because we had time. One can perhaps relieve or excuse, if one wants to, and say, For the first 90 days, when this thing began, you could make an argument that OK, the government's had to move. But in any rational way if they had used the emergency measures planning that was already in place, they would have moved to protect the vulnerable first. And then did a study on the rest. What else do we need to do in society. What they did is just a cart blanche over all of society without giving second thought to it."

    "... not only are the vaccines destructive. More destructive than any vaccine in our history, and that's a scientific fact, they have had time to adjust, and this is where they have not even been nimble."

    He discussed that many decisions are made by government based on opinion polling of Canadians in the street, but that the polls were sometimes affected by advertising and (government subsidized legacy media) news, saying "Here they are advertising that you've gotta get vaccinated, on the television, and they're actually even doing ads for children, and trying to talk to children directly through a public ad, so they're feeding off themselves. They're creating enough fear so they'll get the poll they want to get."

    "Canadians are very trusting of their government," he noted. (I've also noticed this a lot.)


     
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 21,2022

  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 16,2021
  • San Fran mayor proposes giving police real-time access to surveillance videos

    ... 'in some cases.' As well assnging police a role of dealing with poor drug users in 'The Tenderloin.'
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 11,2021
  • Texas abortion law

    "If the legislatures of the several states may, at will, annul the judgements of the courts of the United States, and destroy the rights acquired under those judgements, the Constitution itself becomes a solemn mockery." - Chief Justice Roberts

    Currently, the Texas law is the strictest in the States, banning abortion after 6 weeks, when 90% of abortions happen. The Supreme Court (Conservative majority) said OK, 5-4, this is a weird new thing, we don't understand it yet, weird procedural question, but abortion providers haven't given us enough reason to tell Texan judges not to enforce it.

    R V Wade (1973) said 24 weeks. Are Women's rights being violated now, since abortions after 6 weeks are not being done. The Constitutionality won't be worked out, people say, until there's a real case brought forward (a lawsuit by a Texan--perhaps one of their anti-abortion groups like Right to Life) to be tried.

    The Texas law is enforced in a unique way, which is why Conservatives on the Supreme Court said they didn't have the power to intervene here. State officials don't enforce it. Individual Texans sue both providers and anyone who aids and abets an abortion. Doctors said they would comply by not doing abortions after 6 weeks.

    A civil avenue for any individual to sue anyone else for violating a certain law.

    Americans to a considerable but not overwhelming degree would favor laws against abortions in the 3rd trimester (80% according to Gallup) and a slight majority (60%) would favor laws for the 2nd trimester.

    Texas poll found 50% of Texas support making abortion illegal after 6 weeks. 67% of Republicans and 27% of Democrats said they supported these bills.

    (This story has been going on for a few months now.)
      
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 10,2021
  • UK court ruled in US appeal that Assange can be extradited to US

    ... judges were reassured by US promises to reduce the risk of Assange's suicide.

    Assanges fiance and lawyers will appeal. The appeal will be on assurances, not on free speech of political motivation for extradition.

    But his lawyers can also try to reverse the judgement by challenging last January's findings that Assange's leaks ammounted to a crime. We don't know if such an appeal would be heard.

  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 09,2021
  • Why should Americans not lie and fake crimes against themselves when their government does it?



    #Integrity #Leadership #US
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 08,2021
  • US companies versus vaccine mandates

    "A vaccine mandate for a disease that's just out in the world is not a hazard that's unique to the workplace. And using an emergency temporary standard to mandate a vaccine is not an appropriate use of the emergency temporary standard." - Sara Harbison, Pelican Institute
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 06,2021

  •  
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 30,2021
  • Justices denying anti-vaccine mandate cases

    "Mass General is Massachusetts's largest private employer with about 80,000 employees. Their vaccine mandate went into effect on November 5th. Non-compliant employees were subsequently fired. Several of them filed a lawsuit to prevent the vaccine mandate from taking effect.

    "Barrett declined the vaccine case from Indiana University and Breyer declined this one from Massachusetts. Six of the nine judges turned down a similar case from Maine. It's not looking hopeful for the anti-vaccine mandate crowd."

    This caused some commenters to say they think the Supreme Court has become part of the DeepState.

    But others have noted that this is a purely business decision, and working for a company is at-will in most jobs (a company can mandate you have to wear blue on mondays).

    Others noted that because the vaccines (mRNA) are still experimental (one of the biggest concerns of people not wanting to get or mandate them), forcing people to get them violates the Nuremburg Code (if people later die those who participated even in small ways in forcing people to undergo the procedure liable for deaths).

    #Pandemic #CivilRights #HumanRights

    Nuremberg Code — United States Holocaust Memorial Museum  
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 19,2021
  • Kyle Rittenhouse found not guilty

    Kenosha, WI shooting. Shot 3 men, of which 2 died, at a protest against police brutality. Rittenhouse was 17, armed with an AR-15 style rifle, on the location to protect a car dealership.

    This has been a massive news story for the past month, quite political between Dems and Republicans. The other day, a Dem news org issued a sort of personal correction where the host said they earlier thought Rittenhouse did the agressing, but now said it looked to them like he was aggressed against.

    I only bothered to look at one or two videos on this, just to see what it was, at the start of the trial, and the video the news org showed made it look this way to me also. Unclear about events, but that Rittenhouse was agressing. And I'm not a Democrat news org. Some questions then about how the news presents unresolved legal accusations.


     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 14,2021
  • Fed gov of Austria ordered a lockdown for non-vaccinated people

    Barred from leaving their homes, with threat of a $500 fine. Applies to anyone not 'fully vaccinated' or previously infected.

    65% of the country is vaccinated.


    Protests:


     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 05,2021
  • Halal (Muslim) and kosher (Jewish) food in Greece

    A recent law made permission for production of food products in these two ways.

    But on review, the Hellenic court annulled the permits because existing Greek law requires anesthesia for animals slaughtered, and said the halal and kosher production methods were 'inhumane' because they killed animals without first removing sensation to pain.

    In recent years, 5 northern and eastern European nations have banned ritual slaughter.

    #Animals #Greece #CivilRights
     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 01,2021
  • Assange extradition appeal trial underway

    US reps offering 'assurances' Assange will be treated OK. Assange reps highlighting CIA plans to kidnap, kill, etc.

  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 27,2021
  • EU (ECJ) fines Poland 1m Euros per day

    In Poland there's a disciplinary chamber that, critics say, can make judges leave if they don't follow the 'right wing' party line.

    The chamber, EU says, violates EU law because it compromises the independence of the judiciary in Poland.

    ECJ decided this last summer and Poland accepted it, but Poland didn't really take any steps to remove the chamber.

    The method of fines is standard for the EU when a country does something they don't like, but usually the countries fall into line.

    In September, one of Poland's high courts (with ties to government it is said) also decided Poland's courts can overrule the ECJ.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 09,2021
  • EU majority vote against mass surveillance through facial recognition

    ... such as that used by police. It's called 'biometric surveillance.'

    It's not a law against, that they voted for. It's more of a statement against the idea.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 05,2021
  • Tesla ordered to pay $137M to ex-worker over hostile work environment

    He was an elevator operator who said someone or people did racial abuse to him.
     
    What percentage of people would you guess would willingly have someone do racial abuse to them for even $137?
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 28,2021
  • R. Kelly found guilty

    Groupies going backstage and getting the performer's number and hooking up were recast by the court/media as victims being groomed. Kelly's wife, a person he loved, was also treated as a crime.

    It was reported as a victory for the MeToo movement.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 20,2021
  • China, famous 'MeToo' case thrown out

    3 years ago, a TV station employee alleged a prominent TV host groped her and used force to kiss her when she was an intern under him. She sued him for damages, and he countersued for damage of his reputation.

    The trial she initiated ended today with the finding that she had not shown enough evidence to prove her boss had done so. The accused was not 'even' required to come to court to testify. Some feminists and others considered the trial something of a Chinese MeToo thing.

    The woman, Zhou Xiaoxuan, said it was worth it either way, and she knew the outcome could have gone either way. "I am very honored to have gone through this together with everyone.'

    She will appeal, she said.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 12,2021
  • Canadian govts go for mandatory vaccines

    ... but there were large protests outside city halls and hospitals over the freedom to chose. A further concern has to do with people not feeling the vaccines currently being offered are not adequately tested, we don't know enough about them, and they don't feel comfortable putting it in their bodies.

    Legally, people have the freedom to choose they don't want a vaccine, according to Canadian employment lawyer Lior Samfiru. It can't be forced on them. He said it's actually a human rights violation (to require a medical procedure and also to distinguish between people who have and don't have Covid) as well. He said it's not legal for employers to impose it on employees, and if they let employees for this they are liable to pay severance (possibly up to 2 years). Samfiru said people who challenge their employers have a good chance of success.

    In the US, however, it might be different. Dorit Reiss, law professor at the University of California Hastings, told CNBC there was a history of vaccine mandates in the workplace. Health care employers have required vaccines, and some restaurants have required Hep A vaccines. Employment is at will, which means the employer gets to set many of the workplace rules, and vaccine rules are health and safety rules, making the workplace safer. But there is a question whether the government can mandate a vaccine under an emergency authorization (which it is currently under in the US). However, the EUA only limits the Federal government and doesn't say anything about other employers. Citizens don't have constitutional rights against employers, although they may have some legal rights.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 20,2021
  • New China data privacy law

    ... goes into effect Nov. 1.

    It targets digital companies. Collecting a lot of random info on users in order to 'provide a better service' seems it'll be not as available to businesses. The restrictions in the bill target businesses and don't really apply to the CCP.

    Under the law, companies are required to only collect the minimal amount of data for a service, and must obtain consent for collecting sensitive info (like biometrics), offer easy opt-out options, and if they want to transfer data overseas they have to get govt approval first.

    Does this put China ahead of the West in internet privacy?

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 06,2021
  • Some Afghanis are fleeing to cities to escape new Taliban law

    'If they don't kill us today, they'll kill us tomorrow,' a husband told a wife who worked as a teacher for years before being promoted to principal, after death threats began. She worked at a government-run school in an increasingly Taliban-controlled town. Schools are attacked by rockets and suicide bombers sometimes. The Taliban have their own schools. The couple moved to the city where Taliban holds no real sway, although some of her sons remained in the town.

    A typical punishment for women: public whippings for an unmarried woman talking on the phone with a man. A married woman who did something similar could be hanged.

    A local government head sitting at a local trial said to France24: 'Today, just like yesterday, all Taliban decisions must be in harmony with Islamic law. Whether it be stoning to death, decapitation, or mutilation of the hand, these are strong principles of Islam. They're strong principles of Sharia. And we will never change thm until judgement day.'

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 30,2021
  • Hong Kong man jailed 'under national security law'

    The man, during pro-democracy protests in HK against the Chinese government, purposefully rode his superbike at a line of police. He carried a flag which read 'Liberate Hong Kong.'

    Western media is headlining this as the first person to be charged under Hong Kong's new national security law, and highlighting the law's restrictions on protest slogans that are 'capable of inciting others,' on secessionist activity, and that without a guilty plea there should be no leniency.

    ... despite this man's actions being clearly not just protest oriented.

    This may logically make China appear unfairly presented, and give China a valid claim to such. American commenters on the story noted that the man would probably have been gunned down by US police if he tried that in NY. ... However, China may follow this trial of what many consider an aggressive act with trials of peaceful protesters, journalists (which reportedly it has lined up about 30 of them), etc.

    9 years. He will appeal.

    (following this video clip, the motorbike was on the ground with police surrounding him. It appears he slowed and turned to the side and did not hit any police once he charged up close to them.)

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 22,2021
  • Tanzania government rounds up members of opposition party, talk they might charge them with terrorism

    Previous VP now president after death of previous president extending authoritarian tendencies used by previous president?

  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 19,2021
  • Design trolls lose another lawsuit over their copyrights

    Design Basics is a website that uploads lots of house plans, copyrights them, then sues home builders (they've sued over 100 in recent years).

    Introduction from KANNE, SCUDDER, Circuit Judge:

    Copyright law protects individual expression while encouraging creativity and maintaining the public interest in spreading ideas. In recent years, however, a cottage industry of opportunistic copyright holders—earning the derisive moniker “intellectual property trolls”—has emerged, in which a troll enforces copyrights not to protect expression, but to extract payments through litigation. Design Basics, LLC fits that bill.

    The firm, which holds copyright in 2 Nos. 18-3202, 19-3118 & 20-1515 several thousand single-family home floor plans, has brought over 100 infringement suits against home builders in recent years. But many defendants—the targets of the settlement-extraction scheme—are starting to push back. This case is a good example.

    We have affirmed dismissal of Design Basics’s lawsuits twice in recent years. See Design Basics LLC v. Signature Con-struction, Inc., 994 F.3d 879 (7th Cir. 2021); Design Basics, LLC v.Lexington Homes, Inc.,858 F.3d 1093 (7th Cir. 2017). We do so again today. In dismissing Design Basics’s copyright in-fringement suit against the Kerstiens family’s home building business, the district court recognized that the firm has a thin copyright in its plans because they consist largely of standard features found in homes across America. We agree and affirm.

    #Copyright #Design #Trolling

    Design Basics, LLC v. Kerstiens Homes & Designs, Inc, No. 18-3202 (7th Cir. 2021)
     
  • Climate litigation on rise

    ... like the German case on human rights climate grounds.

    Norway is facing a climate suit (from Friends of the Earth) for its plans to drill in the Arctic.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 30,2021
  • Bill Cosby released, conviction overturned (vacated) on rights issue

    ... after serving 2 years of his 5 - 10, sentenced for giving quaaludes to a woman who said he later sexually assaulted her.

    The judge said Cosby's due process rights had been seriously violated in the trial because a prosecutor had made a deal with Cosby under the table, after which Cosby in his statement included that he had given quaaludes to a woman he was pursuing years earlier.

    Some have said the judge with this move has set a precedent that, although police are notoriously allowed to lie to pursue convictions, when a prosecutor makes a deal saying he won't prosecute that's basically equivalent to an immunity deal. If later judges follow his lead. However, I don't know that DAs were ever allowed to lie to get testimony the way police currently are.

    Another option the court could have taken is to send the case down for another trial, without using the evidence the judge said he didn't like.

    From the ruling: "In accordance with the advice his attorneys, Cosby relied upon D.A. Castor’s publicannouncement that he would not be prosecuted. His reliance was reasonable, and itresulted in the deprivation of a fundamental constitutional right when he was compelledto furnished self-incriminating testimony. Cosby reasonably relied upon theCommonwealth’s decision for approximately ten years. When he announced hisdeclination decision on behalf of the Commonwealth, District Attorney Castor knew thatCosby would be forced to testify based upon the Commonwealth’s assurances. Knowingthat he induced Cosby’s reliance, and that his decision not to prosecute was designed todo just that, D.A. Castor made no attempt in 2005 or in any of the ten years that followedto remedy any misperception or to stop Cosby from openly and detrimentally relying uponthat decision. In light of these circumstances, the subsequent decision by successorD.A.s to prosecute Cosby violated Cosby’s due process rights. No other conclusioncomports with the principles of due process and fundamental fairness to which all aspectsof our criminal justice system must adhere."

    However, legal professionals have asked whether Cosby should be saved from bad legal advice to wave his fifth, which he may have done in the interest of not looking guilty in front of the jury.


     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 29,2021
  • Mexico decriminalized recreational marijuana

    ... by video conference, the Supreme Court 'recognized the right to the recreational use of marijuana.'

    It's still not legal. The Supreme Court can just cross out unconstitutional laws. Legalization (rules for consuming, growing and selling) is for the Senate and Congress.

  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 16,2021
  • Word is both sides of US Congress is taking aim at Big Tech

    Usually, they seem quite antagonistic but people say they're aligning on this issue.

    Antitrust bills.

  • DOJ used powers to legally spy on Journalists and elected members of Congress

    We don't know everything about the story, or what led to the Trump admin investigating journalists, because of the US's secrecy (even in its court trials).

    Rather than investigating the journalists, they went to the tech companies that had the emails and other information and served them not only a warrant for the information, but a gag order (non-disclosure order). Once the gag orders expired, companies were able to notify the journalists.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 13,2021
  • right to speak from his expertise and experience.  

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  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • "In a resource-starved industry, few newsrooms can offer the type of mentoring, guidance and time that it takes to shape a great journalist."
    "But the cost of a journalism education has become an insurmountable barrier for exactly the kind of people we need the most."
    "News has too often been reported by predominantly middle-class, white, male journalists."
    One Way to Help a Journalism Industry in Crisis: Make J-School Free : Journalism/
    'If you offer something for free, there's no accountability; people don't appreciate what they're being given if you just hand it to them.'
    'On the backs of whom? English majors? Engineering majors? Grad students Someone has to pay the journalism professors.'


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 15,2024
  • IN FULL: Yanis Varoufakis' Address to the National Press Club of Australia - YouTube



  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 05,2024
  • Scandal grows around fraudulent New York Times "mass rapes" investigation, with Ali Abunimah - YouTube
    ‘Recycled claims’ by Israel government, atrocity claims against Hamas, no evidence produced for even one victim. ‘Relying on testimony,’ not evidence, the Times corrected their early story to say.

  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 01,2024



  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • https://www.niemanlab.org/2024/02/six-months-in-journalist-owned-tech-publication-404-media-is-profitable/

    Let's talk about what's being missed in Tucker vs Putin.... - YouTube
    Chris Wallace DESTROYS former colleague Tucker Carlson - YouTube

    Another Journalist Sues Over Raid Of The Marion County Newspaper’s Offices : Journalism/

    Banned in Europe, sold in Canada. What’s in your food? (Marketplace) - YouTube

  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024
  • What Tucker Carlson's Putin Interview Means for X - YouTube
    Probably a lot of advertisers don't want their content shown beside this, but probably a lot of those advertisers are no longer on X (exodus a year ago). Now thicker skinned ones remain on X. (What even could lure back those exodused?)
    How is BlueSky doing? Keep tabs. Mastodon?
    No one is going to be talking about Facebook when it comes to these uncommon interviews though. And dems will be watching the shows too, I assume, so they'll be warmed/lured to X.

    Exclusive: Tucker Carlson Interviews Vladimir Putin - YouTube
    One thing that seems a point is that when other world leaders are elected (not all but some), you can see the leader really does decide what the country does. When we've watched American presidents make statements on the election trail and then change in office, etc, it seems the president doesn't make many decisions, even the ones he's allowed to make.

    Putin's Puppet Show feat. Tucker "The Propagandist" Carlson || Peter Zeihan - YouTube
    ‘There’s really no point in going to the substance of Tucker Carlson's interview.'
    ‘He's been a Russian shill for several years.'
    Zeihen refers to Tucker as a ‘shill’.

    I would guess the main problem ruling politicians see with people like Carlson is that they are so used to Agenda Setting being enough to maintain Their Order (they own the majority of the media, in Canada it is almost absolute with a state media organization, in USA it is a bipartizan political news system) they don't need to do deeper level (and more risky) forms of propaganda. When someone forces a legitimate competing truth or agenda into the mainstream and they are forced to address it on its own terms, they either look bad or have to try other forms of propaganda/oppression.

    The thing we can say here is that when politicians (or anyone) are challenged in a legitimate way, have legitimate competition, are forced to talk against the truth and not their version of it/inventions, they are forced to do a better job, and citizens get a better country. Citizens have a lot of motive to nationalism. If you like/listen to Tucker/Putin, you are not a patriot, you are a traitor, you should support USA, you should critisize everything an opponent of ‘the government’ says and does and support everything your national government does. You should not even listen to those competing people. This leads to poorer and poorer leaders and a worse nation.
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024

  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • BI to do 8% layoffs.

    A professional journalist in the US starts at $50-60k, can move up to $80k. The overhead (including managers etc) costs mean that the company pays $200-300k for that one journalist. 2 stories a week. Needs 100-150k people to read it at $10 cpm. Subscribers can do it at 10 or 15 people reading each story. But now we have experts doing broadcasting (not maybe exactly reporting though).

    Traditional news lke BI, using ‘anonymous’ (basically, because not a celebrity who can lose their most valuable commodity ie cred if they lie) journalists uses ‘lying as a service’. ‘So you just have to ignore it all.’ Chamath. ‘Clickbait disinformation.’ Also a lot of trad media put out not just ‘not the truth’ but ‘the official narrative’ which is disinformation. Sacks. ‘Stenographers for the White House' printing ‘whatever they tell you to print’ rather than vetting it and telling you which part is the truth. ‘Gelman amnesia’.

    The Economist, AP and Reuters have boots on the ground. Newswires are not great businesses.

    Wikipedia and other companies that work opposite to Google Pagerank, have a weakness when it comes to Bios of Living People. If a company fails, someone was an investor, your fired someone, they have motivation to write bad things. Interest groups. Activists who are funded as a full time job to diseminate propaganda.

    Triangulate towards the truth, not just one source. You can do this on Twitter by following a few hundred people you respect.

    https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/98832/
    Vot Tak news website.
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 30,2024

  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 26,2024
  • CBC lets Trudeau off the hook after Federal Court rules Emergencies Act invocation unconstitutional - YouTube

    No independent media in Canada. Less resistence. Tucker. Most of the 'media is corporate welfare cases and you're never gonna get the truth out of them.' Gord Magill. ‘I don’t know if there's any political solutions to this. People need to start looking into themselves.'

  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • Gunmen storm Ecuadorian television studio while live on air - YouTube
    Balaclavas. Police special forces entered and took control about an hour later.
    The president is calling opposing groups ‘terrorists’, reportedly.
    Recently, the president took control of several prisons, which before had been controlled by gangs.
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08,2024
  • Headlines because WSJ did a piece on Musk's drug use.


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023
  • Zazlof likes CNN for reasons other than the bottom line. He says it's a great global asset. Influence. And has been traditionally a good business, a billion in profit sometimes. An election year, news tend to benefit.



  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • Walter Isaacson on AI's implications for journalism: This could be a 'godsend' for good journalism - YouTube
    ‘The principles of copyright we have apply, to AI and to all new techs.’ This could be good for good journalism. We just had a decade where good journalism ‘has been decimated by the internet because the business model doesn’t work anymore. That's why Time Magazine is so thin.' But now you can licence your content if you send someone to the ground in Gaza to report. And there will be competition among AI services to rewrite it.
    To prevent unwanted scraping, publishers can just slide false information articles into the library, and only they have tabs on which ones.

    [The Biden admin] had total control of the media discourse (controlling all platforms) until Elon bought Twitter on a whim, just because he cares a lot about free speech. They're so upset with Elon for opening up free speech. - All-In Podcast

    NYT getting criticism for editing a statement by Hunter Biden taking out the key word ‘financially’ and just printing ‘Let me state as clearly as I can. My father was not involved in my business.’ Breaking basic journalistic standards. Who took out the word? ‘They bury their corrections’ #NYT
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 12,2023
  • Sports Illustrated called out for articles by fake writers with AI profile photos - YouTube
    Part of the reason we want people, not AI, in positions of responsibiltiy like journalism is because work is part of improvement, which results in a more proficient person. Ultimate decisions (such as will this thing be OK or harmful to us) are made by (influenced by, informed by, taught by) wise people. If people do not become professionals, there will be no experienced, wise people in these roles.

    #AI

    Judge Who Signed Newspaper Warrant Won't Be Disciplined - YouTube
    ‘The evidence did not support the search warrant.’ Instead of disciplining the magistrate, they just said ‘next time slow down.' First Amendment and journalists. Journalists' home, home of a council woman raided, alleging ‘identity theft. In the raid of the news office, police took computers and cell phones and took documents that revealed confidential sources for stories unrelated to the investigation. ‘Police weaponizing search warrants against journalists’ requiring police to get a subpoeina instead of a search warrant for journalists, in order to have the courts oversee what's happening when they do something with journalists. This way, journalists are brought into court and told to answer questions, rather than just kick down the door and take everything, which compromises journalism, and also looks like they're trying to shut down the paper/journalist.

    The town tried to shut down the newspaper. Other newspapers nearby stepped up and said ‘we’ll help you get your editions out.'

    Those reviewing whether the magistrate should be disciplined decided no because he hand't been found ‘incompetant.’ Their standard for that. ‘Just don’t cross the line of incompetance and you're ok.'

    Commenter: 'If signing the warrant wasn't incompetent we can only assume it was malicious.' Another: ‘ Sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice.’ Another: ' Wait signing a warrant that is ILLEGAL and violates federal law was not incompetence? ok then it was criminal because they knew what they were signing.'
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • What is the worst thing that happened today? - Elon

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BYH4K4kHJA

    #Canada

    If you have 20m users and over $1b revenue (only Meta and Google). Meta didn't want to comply and now blocks Canadian news organization links. Google threatened to do the same but now has reached a deal and the links are not blocked.

    It's to compensate news organizations when they share their links (?and click through to them?). Not all ‘news’, but some news that meets certain standards they decided. Google didn't want to deal with each organization, but is willing to deal with one organization that represents them all.

    Question of democracy. If voting relies on news, and if people who now get their news from online, can't access reputable news organizations, could pose challenges. Perhaps a bigger principle at stake.

    #Journalism

  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • How Israel Suppresses The Media - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 25,2023
  • Rupert Murdoch gives up Chairman title at Fox Corp., News Corp. - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 18,2023

  • “Is Apple the next IBM?” - Animal Spirits, The Compound

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04,2023
  • The Canadian Dream is to LEAVE CANADA! But Why? - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023
  • Editor of Marion County Record discusses possible motives behind police raid of newsroom - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 14,2023
  • South Carolina newspapers evolve a new paradigm to survive - YouTube 
  • May, 2023
  • May 15,2023
  • VICE Going Bankrupt


  • May, 2023
  • May 08,2023
  • Funny and Interesting Headlines

    The Biden family has so many whistle blowers we're 'starting to lose track' - GOP rep - FoxNews
     
    "Let it Rot" - China's Youth are Giving Up on Life
  • May, 2023
  • May 03,2023
  • Palki quit Lion News

    She said they were doing news curation, and needed to move to do something different and tell the India story in a more compelling fashion.

    It's true that Lion News on YouTube is valuable more because it gives a non-US-propaganda take on events and doesn't actually present anything of its own, it seems. It also has it's own obviously indulged political biases, but not to the point of being really problematic as long as there are alternative news sources to round things out.
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 25,2023
  • Headlines all over, and all talk shows, as Tucker Carlson let go by FoxNews.

    Also, Don Lemmon says CNN fired him. He said his agent told him and he was surprised.
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 16,2023

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 11,2023


  • Different date, different story

     
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 07,2023
  • Funny and Interesting Headlines




    Uh, Stormy? France24.

     
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 04,2023
  • VICE brand now completely over?

    Recent vlog I saw from them was titled 'The Dark Side of the 90s' or something like that.
     
    Would like to see a chart of how long it takes after a corporate buyout / originator stops caring, until a brand like VICE, MTV, etc is completely over.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 11,2023

  • BBC cancelling shows because presenters refuse to go on air.

    Lineker had tweeted criticism of PM Sunak's migrants policy.

    "When you work for a public institution ... it can be hard to differentiate between the person's views and the corporation's views."

    Did he cross the guidelines of BBC policy?


    Result, in terms of public framing/understanding of the story: Lineker crisis exposes impartiality row at heart of BBC • FRANCE 24 English - YouTube

    But who was right? BBC in attempting to preserve impartiality of journalists who work for a public news service? or did they just give in to protest?

     
     
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 03,2023
  • Funny and Interesting Headlines

    Tanzanian President's Brutal Speech Explaining the Stupidity of Western Leaders - 2natcheki

    Self-driving Repossessed Cars - Switched to Linux



    Mar 13
     
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 18,2023

  • Is this what's called an 'attack piece'?
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 11,2022

  • "Demographic hunting business." "Politically homogeneous" is "fundamentally untrustworthy." 90% on NYT readers vote one way. Fox and MSNBC it's close to 100% one way.

    "You should be able to reproduce news stories" like in science, but with anonymous sources this isn't possible.

    Not really ashamed of error.
     
    One thing news organizations can do to keep their articles clean of opinion is give their writers a place to publish their opinions while they are expected to keep their news journalistic.
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 21,2022
  • Funny and interesting headlines lately

    For Tech Workers, Pink Slips and Anxiety Replace Perks and Parties | WSJ Wall Street Journal

    The End of Magical Thinking: When Narratives Fail - Blockworks Macro

    The End of the Future with Peter Thiel
    Fastest way though the city? Inline skating!

    How Bernard Arnault ruined fashion



     
  • May, 2022
  • May 15,2022

  • In the video, the officials are whacking those that are bearing the coffin (ie both hands holding the weight above their shoulders).
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 16,2022
  • Funny and interesting headlines this month




    2 inmates at women-only NJ prison became pregnant from transgender - FoxNews
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 31,2022

  •  
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 18,2022
  • RT and Sputnik have closed some things down, and have been banned from some US/Western platforms

    This happened right after the invasion of Ukraine a few weeks ago, but I just watched this interview with Abby Martin who said this:

    " RT America was an incredible opportunity to highlight voices like Chris Hedges, consistent anti-war like myself, Lee Camp. And that was unmatched. That platform that RT America gave us was unmatched. Our viewpoints are not allowed on the corporate media. Dissent against empire is not allowed on the corporate media. And that is why we had to go to places like Russia Today, in order to have a platform for these very important and crucial perspectives."

    She said the US was looking for a chance to shut down alternative media.

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 11,2022
  • Funny titles

    4Chan attempts to raid Facebooks Metaverse ... [SomeOrdinaryGamers)

    Chinese President Xi JinPing is under pressure right now, says former Australian PM [CNBC]

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 01,2022
  • Ukrainian Defense Ministry published a video claiming to be a Ukrainian fighter jet shooting down a Russian one

    ... This is according to RT.

    The footage was from a video game.

    RT also said the footage many have shared of Zelinskyy in military dress on the front lines of Kiev, is actually from several months ago during practices.
     
  • Twitter has made it so you can't search for Russia Today and Sputnik, reportedly

     
  • EU banned Russia Today and Sputnik media

    In the West (or the world?) Russia's main media sites are regarded not really as news but more as of propaganda.

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 09,2022

  • Dr. John Campbell reviews censorship of BMJ and Cochrane on social media

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 07,2022
  • Some funny and interesting headlines for Feb 2022

    "Racism" Is the Left's Weapon of War - Michael Knowles

    INSIDE Big Pharma: employees say their careers have been made into a lie - Teryn Gregson

    Nothing says sedition like beeping your horn - Fox News

    Canadian gelato shop owner breaks down crying after threats for donation to truckers - Fox News ... after her shop was doxed
     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 02,2022
  • In the West, many vloggers, personalities, and regular commenters basically don't trust MSM at all
     
    This is talked about quite a bit these days.
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 28,2022
  • "You can't legislate, judges can't solve these problems, you can't get FOIA requests to get the documents. You need whistle blowers." - James O'Keefe of Project Veritas

    "You need people on the inside who are brave enough to jump on a metaphorical grenade."

  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 18,2022
  • CNN reportedly losing viewers

    Fox News doing better.
     
    Is CNN really losing viewers though? The numbers are down from the same week a year ago, which was the Capital riot news.
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 14,2021
  • Tourists questioning Western mass media reports about Ethiopia, because they're currently there

    3 YouTube links:




     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 15,2021
  • John Campbell censored, responded by seeing who internet censors are (mostly people who work in journalism)


     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 08,2021
  • Pandora Papers

    (Filed under ¿Journalism? rather than under Journalism)

    Many many documents were leaked, not showing illegal activity or wrongdoing, but simply how wealthy people move money and make purchases.

    Things like photos of homes that the owners wanted to keep private were shown. Anyone wanting to rob them can say "Thanks."

    People like Ringo Star are in it. Everyone knows he's rich, knows how he made money, and he's not suspected of wrongdoing.

    Types of documents in the leaks: passports, bank statements, tax declarations, company and corp records, real estate contracts and due diligence questionnaires.

    The way this data data was taken from lawyers offices and financial firms was most likely illegal, it is considered.

    The org that published (or gave to 600 journalists to pick through) the leak was the ICJ.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 31,2021
  • Funny or interesting headlines this month

    Afghanistan will return to 'safe haven for terrorism': Retired Brigadier General Kimmitt : CNBC

    French youth: Politically active but not voting : France24
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 13,2021
  • Nicaragua newspaper out of paper

    They can't get more imported, and they expressed doubts about the reason. They said they'd continue to publish online. The paper is La Prensa.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 21,2021
  • Some funny or interesting headlines this month

    'Biden’s Against Hate-Crimes, Unless They Are In Israel' | By Robert Inlakesh : RT

    Blinken vows to support journalists - critics raise Assange case (regarding the Secretary of State's 'defense' of Iran-critical VOA journalist Masih Alinejad) : RT

    Haiti president assassination suspects trained by Pentagon : RT (This is completely false and not journalism - the report was just about that the assassins had some American training or something in their lives, not that the Pentagon had anything to do with the assassination.)

    9/11 families want Biden to declassify documents or stay away from 20-year memorials: CNBC (Bush, Obama, Trump admins all declined to release them. The DoJ is likely to order a review of them, while they have been classified under the state secrets)

    US Spent $89 Billion & 20 Years Building Afghan Army and All of It was Toppled in Just Days : The Free Thought Project


     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 08,2021
  • Saudi Arabia is going to have a news platform with a studio in DC.

    It will have journalists who were formerly part of AJ, Fox, NBC, and Sirius XM. It is expected before the end of the year.

    It's part of a new lobbying effort aimed at the White House and Congress.

    This is according to the DOJ: SA's foreign lobbying disclosures.

    The news org will be owned by Taqnia ETS, a SA-based subsidiary of SA's $400b PIF (Public Investment Fund). Taqnia is supervised by the Saudi Ministry of Info.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 26,2021
  • Americans trust in news down to 29%

    According to Digital News Report's study of many countries. US trusted their news the least of all countries included. Canadians trusted their news 45%. Finlanders trusted theirs the most at 65%.

    The US level has declined steadily from 40% in 2017, and it is thought to be due in part to the pandemic, the media relationship with Trump, and increasingly prioritizing their audience's preferences or reactions to presenting quality news.

    The business model of creating hate and outrage to sell news to a particular demographic is considered to probably continue to increase, according to some analysts.


     

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  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • Politics of Water in the Himalayan Region - YouTube
    Commenter: 'Hydropolitics is a fractional issue, but discussing the solutions is of course a good step in the right direction. Investment water speculation, in the guise of legitimate water trading based on the premise that everything has a price, is a much weightier issue.
    'All our water problems are rooted in the lack of water literacy...'

    The relationship between China and India is at an all time rock bottom. Before talking about water politics, they might need a reinvigoraiton of the broader relationship first before the very thorny water and water challenges.
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 05,2024
  • U.S. to airdrop aid into Gaza - YouTube
    Israel military opened fire as civilians waited for life-saving supplies, reportedly. Israel said most of the injuries came in a crush or hit by vehicles as the vehicles tried to escape.

    Is China's 40-year experiment with the West over? | DW Business - YouTube
    Saw the West as bags of money in the 80s. Saw them as dangerous for ideas, etc, so they isolated them to a couple coastal cities. They set up 13 open cities, invited foreign companies to invest as long as they'd export the product (without taxes). All kinds of promotional activities to get them to invest. Labor costs were so low, maybe 1/10th the production costs as if done in the US. China at that time seen as a plucky underdog. Had the nicest hotels in the hothouse districts, anyone could get a meeting with a minster in the cities. People got the impression China was trying to redo it's entire legal system to do business etc with the West. Chinese were barely making enough to eat before this.
    They had 180 newspapers. 3 years later 1800 magazines, 100 TV stations. One regulator for many, so they couldn't regulate, and you felt you didn't look over your shoulder, led to explosion in the arts. Then demands for a better life, control of inflation, protested, everyone joined the protest, same time Gorachev visited. They strenthnd central control, much less free during 90s, but because tons of capital was flowing into China, people didn't feel it or worry too much. Until 2008-09 GFC and Olympics.
    Foreign governments were hopeful about integration, possibly just fooling themselves about the nature of China. They were all investing and profiting from China.

    For a foreign company now (not before), all it takes is some Chinese company to file a lawsuit against you, and you can't leave the country. It's not high-level threats, it's just little stuff that is enough to keep you from going there and trying.

    Because China focuses on copying foreign tech rather than making new tech, they create value destruction, not new tech. They drive down prices sometimes but don't get on top of the product curve. Planned economy.

    There's concern China is building significant overcapacity in the auto sector: CFR’s Michael Froman - YouTube
    National security risks from connected auto.
    China is going to be building more in Mexico, which has free trade to US.
    Musk says the Chinese EVs are better than US cars except Teslas.
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 01,2024
  • CBC News: The National | Canada to reimpose visas for Mexicans - YouTube


  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • China Urges US to Lift ‘Illegal, Unilateral’ Sanctions - YouTube
    He appealed to Blinken (Secretary of State).
    ‘The trend towards economic globalization cannot be reversed.’
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024
  • Canada-Ukraine free trade deal passes in House despite Conservative opposition | Power & Politics - YouTube

    Major German corporation accused of links to human rights abuses in China | DW News - YouTube

    World is 'grateful' to India for buying Russian oil, India's minister of petroleum claims - YouTube

    What the F*CK Is Happening In Canada?!! - YouTube
    Canada rep abroad.


  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024
  • The West is very often a good short term ally but a bad long term ally.



  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • ICJ ruled Israel must take steps to prevent genocide. Headlines Israels said ICJ is antisemitic. Is it possible to criticize israel and not be antisemitic, and if so how?

    ‘"Russian cosmonauts will no longer be delivered to the ISS. They will work under a different program,” Borisenko told lenta.ru. "It goes about the creation of our own national orbital station.’ called ROSS.

    Iran allegedly hired Canadian citizens to conduct killings on U.S. soil - YouTube
    A network of drug traffickers operate with carte blanche in Iran, under protection of the government there, and in exchange do assasinations, kidnappings, around the world, who are dissidents or opponents of Iran.
    $350k to shoot them repeatedly in the head to make an example of them.
    Events from 2021. One of the assasins is allegedly HA.

    Today the official border guard forces are former independence fighters against the government military regime. They are free to pursue their own business interests in return.

    Kamila Valieva decision happened today, and she's disqualified for 4 years from the date of the test. It takes away her titles (medals are handed out by other organization).
    ‘She’s a minor.' ‘The amount of substance was relatively small.’
    ‘Threw the book at her.' ‘Could have given her a 2 year or 3 year.’ ‘This was supposed to be judged on an individual level, not a Russia level.’

    Geopolitics is supplanting economic efficiency as the primary driver of goods moving throught the global supply chain. Red Sea is happening at same time as drought in Panama. Global instability in supply chains. Made in country paradigm. A long chain in past few years. Point when a shift takes place in where goods are made.

    Canada sending $40M more in aid for Gaza after pausing UNRWA funding | Power & Politics - YouTube
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • U.S. will retaliate if Houthis continue Red Sea attacks, Biden says - YouTube
    US, UK, AUS, Canada, Netherlands, Bahrain (but, it seems, only US physically), to ‘restore deterrance.’
    Sacks thinks several US politicians want a wider war in the Middle East ie US and Israel vs Iran.

    Headlines that Milei says he won't make good relaitons with countries that are socialist. First flaw?
    #Milei
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08,2024
  • Could Turkey be kicked out of NATO for note being a trusted ally? Turkey has one of the biggest armies in Europe. Could it side more towards Russia?

    Possible conflicts: Guayana and Venezuela. Ethiopia and Egypt or Eritrea (spilling into Red Sea, Houthis), Middle East. Ukraine. Iran.
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023
  • Ukraine war: Kyiv forced to cut military operations as foreign aid dries up | BBC News - YouTube

    Venezuala and US exchanged prisoners.
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • Hungary blocks €50bn of EU funding for Ukraine | BBC News - YouTube
    #Economics
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • Should we consider Hamas members as created by Israel?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvQCZvgi2l0

  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LgR5KJIcX8

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qj8lC4TFw4k

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-bsYDAHDhM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKMZKGWA3dE

    6% favor Palestinians. 36% say treat both the same (which is down from 53% in 2014. Also, less people are ‘unsure’ than in 2014).

    Republicans and Independents put securing the US/Mex border as the #1 security consideration, followed by aid for Israel, while democracts put Ukraine at top then aid to Israel.

    Is this just an impossible situation for US leaders? Israel is their partner and no matter what they have to side with them (or even criticise or admit criticism of them), but people naturally are not impressed with Israel or the situation there, and so US leaders must want nothing other than to avoid this topic. People immediatley after the invasion started protesting at the US government buildings, which allowed this to be a news story in headlines.

    Basically, Hamas forcing the situation, forcing Israel to act more brusquely, forces other people/nations to one side or the other (it comes up at the UN, newspapers, etc). If they chose immorally it can be uncomfortable and detrimental for them.

    Similarly, the India situation in Canada right now.

    Is it that there hasn't been much confrontation in a while? China and the US only a couple years ago became non-mutual-silence-allies at the upper government levels.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbwNAqllmoo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0pet5QC7wk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNulBQC4tfs

    Venezuela is a source of some of the heaviest crude, and there are few places that can process this. US wants to do more refining.

    Azerbaijan had blocaded Nagorno-Karabakh for months and then invaded and took full control in a 24-hour offensive. The Armenian separatists agreed to disarm and most of the 100k Armenians relocated themselves to Armenia.

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • Syrian pres's plane escorted by air protection of Pakistan, Iran, SA and Russia, as a precaution against ‘Anglo-American Empire’ ‘Rules Based Reich’. - Some blogger named Corrine

    The Iranians look down on the Chinese as an inferior society, Zeihan said. Really? and on what grounds?

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 25,2023
  • India expels Canada diplomat as Sikh murder row escalates - BBC News - YouTube 

    Campaining for a separate land for Sikhs in northern India, for this branded a ‘terrorist’ by India? India has longstanding concerns that within the large Indian population in Canada, they are conducting anti-India activities. Kalastan movement. Separatism.



    India says Canada must stop providing safe haven for separatists - YouTube 

    The separatist government of Tibet has been in India for how many years now? Daramsala.

    Poland says it will no longer supply weapons to Ukraine | DW News - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 18,2023





  • U.S. and Iran swap prisoners, releasing $6B in frozen Iranian oil funds - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04,2023
  • Beijing bans seafood from Japan after Fukushima nuclear plant releases treated radioactive water - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023
  • We need to be very careful in our approach to China at a moment of this kind of difficulty, and I think we need to be more attentive to avoiding a situation where we terrify China with potential economic damange that we're going to do to them. - Sommers on China's tough week (Country Garden now after Evergrand months ago, decision to not report youth unemployment)
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 03,2023

  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 19,2023
  • Musk wants regulation for AI. He recently stressed that when he went to China and met with leaders. And that the main objection to regulation in the US was that if US did regulation China would jump ahead of them. To China, he noted that without regulation, a superintelligence could find itself in control, which is not what the leadership in China wants.

    Enforcement is difficult.

    ...



    ... to HK and Singapore. They'll still have a standalone tech center in China that will comply.


    ...

    US cuts off funding to Wuhan Lab connected to Covid origins - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 26,2023

  • Although you could say the reverse is just as true.
  • May, 2023
  • May 24,2023
  • México dará visas temporales a centroamericanos para trabajar en obras públicas - YouTube 

  • May, 2023
  • May 17,2023

  • Derisking the Taiwan element.
  • May, 2023
  • May 03,2023
  • Turkey's Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu claims US' attempting political coup in Turkey | WION - YouTube 
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 15,2023
  • Headlines France govt is (?) in support of One China

    Xi meeting with Brazil president

    China offering $10b to Afghanistan gov for access to lithium
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 12,2023
  • Without Merkel, France may be seen as more of the voice
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 06,2023
  • Apple set to open its first official retail store in India | Latest English News | WION - YouTube 

  • US has begun free trade negotiations with Taiwan. When complete, treating Taiwan as an independent country will be not just core to US foreign policy, but core to domestic econ and trade policy also.
     
    (Not doing it with just paper.)
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 03,2023
  • Japan distances itself from the US and buys Russian oil - YouTube 
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 02,2023

  • White House (dealing with inflation) is not pleased. Maybe somewhat surprised.
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 01,2023


  • 🚨BRICS Nations To Issue NEW Currency BACKED BY GOLD To Further Weaken The US Dollar - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 28,2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 26,2023

  • This continent mas many suitors

     
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 23,2023
  • China on edge as Mongolian boy is hailed as new Buddhist Lama | Latest English News | WION - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 15,2023
  • Roubini thinks there's a significant chance Israel strikes Iran this year, since Iran is building ability to have a bomb which would mean 'Israel cannot wait.'

  • (Because US doesn't have influence over Iran.)
     
    US still very close to SA on specific issues (security, intelligence, strategy). Still their biggest partner.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 05,2023

  • Pulitzer Price-winning Journalist Seymour Hersh

    Apparently they sent some kind of warning to allies beforehand.

     
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 01,2023
  • China's suggestions for ending Ukraine War

    Includes points that will be of interest to much of the developing world (dealing with inflation and lack of supplies).



    China has experience with NKorea. China has perhaps been a brake on NKorean rhetoric.

    What Putin wouldn't have liked: reference to Human Rights.

    Doesn't reference Ukraine's territorial rights, so a non-starter.

    A ceasefire would buy time for Russia (which is low on weapons and trained soldiers), so Ukraine wouldn't favor a ceasefire probably.

     

  • "That elites have simply been wrong about China for nearly 30 years." "Underestimated the CCP."

    Both parties.

    Mao, Tianamen, recently Covid lockdown.

    Most favored nation trading status granted to China in 2000 and admitting China to WTO in 2001, were start of long downward spiral.

    (Things the minority has said for a while in order to keep problems like the current ones from happening, but only becoming the mainstream ideas once the problems have already happened.)

    New young politicians.
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 27,2023

  • EU in its sanctions decisions targets products that can't be backfilled through third countries. Russia can still source sanctioned goods through a series of countries. And paying.

    EU wants to get Turkey at the table to modify this. Intelligence gathering. Threatening with financial sanctions and access.

    Plastics, steering wheels, chips. Other dual use goods.

    Import jobs must be fun right now.
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 24,2023
  • We also know that U.S. is going to use this debt against Ukraine, says analyst - YouTube 
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 21,2023
  • China donated $100m to Cuba last month


  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 05,2022
  • Example of how China is not an easy country to govern

    List of current issues between China and Australia: swimmers, drugs, Crown Casino, Papau New Guinea, Huawei, Pacific Stepup, Solomon Islands, Gladdis Leo, South China Sea, general issues of interference, Australians relations with the US, trade, coal, barley, marine endowment, Hong Kong, protests at the University of Queensland, Chinese Australian writer Mr Yang in prison, Uigers.

    The current government also, it has been said, alienated many rich Chinese with the corruption scandal, and tech people with how they handled tech over the past couple years.
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 02,2022
  • Iran on the threshold gets more benefits and fewer costs, but if it crosses the threshold (a device and guidance) they get less benefits and higher costs - Alterman
     
    Completely unconstrained by agreements, without any inspectors, without any insight, maybe puts them in a dangerous place, where they're more liable to be surprised in a bad way. Versus continuing in unsatisfactory agreements you're constantly trying to improve, but with continuing dialog, insights, and tools to use.

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 27,2022


  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 16,2022

  • India takes charge of G20 Presidency
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 17,2022

  • Chips, selling tech to one country or the other, not both. Questions about low-quality tech.

    China, Zeihan says, is making things uncomfortable for Putin, making him play a subservient or belittled role. We can guess what this means for their ideas about Taiwan.

    US, Zeihan says, is demonstrating strength when it comes to actuallySerious issues of national security, even if they have been seen as weak in less vital issues over the past while.
     
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 14,2022
  • "Everything Trump said he was going to do Biden is now turning into policy (regarding China)" - Zeihan
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 02,2022
  • Pelosi went to Taiwan

    After a week or two of headline news about her possibly going/possibly not/China not wanting her to. US headlines only I read, so I can't say what China's real position was.
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 24,2022
  • "It has been proven time and again that sanctions are a boomerang and a double-edged sword, to politicize, instrumentalize and weaponize the global economy, and to willfully impose sanctions by taking advantage of one's dominant status ... will only end up hurting one's own interest, as well as the interests of others, and inflict suffering on people around the world." - Xi speaking at BRICS summit

  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 22,2022
  • Saudi crown prince visiting 3 nations

    Turkey, Egypt, Jordan.

    Currently at the president's palace in Ankara. Apparently, among other things like oil and normalizing relations (media attacks), Turkey's to drop the Kashogi trial in Istanbul. When the journalist was killed Erdogan blamed the highest levels of SA for the killing.
     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 16,2022

  • WTO requires unanimous support from members to pass deals, but in the current global climate it doesn't seem to be able to pass anything

    Most recently, India was the sole opposition to a fishing restrictions bill. India pointed to Europe buying of gas from Russia and Biden visiting SA, and how those are justified as 'national interest.'

    Recently, India and S Africa wanted vaccine formulas but were denied. Only a couple countries supported them in the WTO.

     
  • May, 2022
  • May 17,2022
  • Turkey blocked Sweden and Finland bids to join NATO

    Sweden and Finland had a decades-old policy of neutrality that they now seem to want to change.

    NATO needs a unanimous vote for new members.

    The main reason given by Turkey is that those countries host Kurdish groups the Turkish government deems terrorists.

    Diplomats from the two countries are going to Turkey to try diplomacy, but Erdogan publicly said they shouldn't bother to tire themselves, as Turkey won't accept counties that impose sanctions (export bans on Turkey... Sweden halted arms sales to Turkey after Turkish intervention in Syria 3 years ago) on Turkey, because then NATO would cease to be a security organization and start to be a place where reps of terrorist organizations are represented.

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 27,2022
  • 'For 75 years...': India's veiled dig at US, UK during resolution on use of veto power - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 01,2022
  • What if sanctions were imposed on all US citizens every time the US invaded another country?

    This question was raised by BreakThrough News, whose commenters said Americans would probably not think that was fair, since they don't have any say in what their government does.

    The sanctions against Russia do not target explicitly citizens but that is who will feel the sanctions.

     
  • Berlin's technical university has cut off all academic ties with Russia

  • "The number one priority now is for a serious diplomatic initiative that sorts this mess out, by giving Putin something he can present the Russian people with as a victory" - Yanis Varoufakis

    "... In exchange for troop withdrawal. That he ceases all hostilities ..."
     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 25,2021
  • Hostage diplomacy worked for China

    ... The Huawei exec who's been under house arrest in Vancouver for a couple years on request by America (they said she bypassed their embargo on Iran, I think, and wanted her deported to the US. She's been arguing against deportation from Canada since then).

    Shortly after the exec's detention, China detained two Canadians, saying they were spying. (It sounds like they were never charged, just detained until now).

    Shortly after the exec recently made a deal with the US and was released by Canada to return to China, China released the two Canadian men.

    "Because it was so blatently a form of hostage diplomacy I think people are going to start thinking about how they deal with China. ... a major emerging power that doesn't really follow international law, so there's a lot of implications that need to be addressed." - Clifford Coonan

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 21,2021
  • Biden mentions ' relentless diplomacy' after 'relentless war' in Afghanistan, at UN meeting

    ... amid a speech full of platitudes about the most common topics. He also mentioned 'human rights' and the UN Charter, which might make some viewers at home laugh. The US targets and goals he mentioned were the same as the past eras, and with the same language of urgency (in allying with the US?).

    He mentioned "leading the world toward a more peaceful, prosperous future for ALL people. Instead of continuing to fight the wars of the past we are fixing our eyes on [?Will we get something new or specific here? Nope.] devoting our resources to the challenges that hold the keys to our collective future." Climate, pandemic, global power dynamics, trade, cyber, 'the threat of terrorism as it stands today,' were what he mentioned.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 27,2021
  • Some say diplomacy in the US done less by (career) diplomats and more by people from political backgrounds

    Highlighted by the recent talks between China and the US in Anchorage, where the US government was represented by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in which the US reportedly brought a list of demands/complaints against China, and which didn't go over very well with the Chinese.

    Now Wendy Sherman will head a mission to China. China may send only lower level officials to talk to her.

    Wendy Sherman is a diplomat and politician since the Clinton presidency, and also active under Hillary.

    But the question being raised is 'How much does Sherman know about China or Chinese?' She might have some superficial armchair knowledge, but no real competency, it is thought.

    The Russians and Chinese do use career diplomats, real career professionals.

    This idea came to our attention by a vlog by Alexander Mercouris.

    US is criticized for trying to 'coerce' China into doing things the US wants. Treating China as an adversary or enemy, and only talking to China really when the US wants it to do something.

    China's diplomacy

    China has also been considered to alienate its global partners through it's foreign policy. China frequently makes criticisms of America that are a great stretch, such as equating China's current human rights abuses with those that took place in America 100 years ago.

    China's 'wolf warrior diplomacy,' where it acts forcefully abroad, may be popular within China, but it may be alienating other countries, including Asian countries (reported rise in anti-Chinese sentiment in the region). What place do wolves have in society?

    'I think (the non-issuance of Chinese visas to US students, due reportedly to China's non-infection policy during the pandemic, while China wants removed the US political sanction on Chinese students who want to study in the US) is a good thing actually. The US side should put forward such demands, such concerns, because this is engagement. The US side will say, "I want Beijing to do this and that," the Chinese side will say, "I want Washington to do this and that." In this way, we can cooperate and reduce their concerns," commented Qinduo Xu of Pangoal and CGTN.

      

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  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • Assembly theory explains and quantifies selection and evolution | Nature
    Controversial.
    ‘AT conceptualizes objects not as point particles, but as entities defined by their possible formation histories. This allows objects to show evidence of selection, within well-defined boundaries of individuals or selected units. We introduce a measure called assembly (A), capturing the degree of causation required to produce a given ensemble of objects. This approach enables us to incorporate novelty generation and selection into the physics of complex objects. It explains how these objects can be characterized through a forward dynamical process considering their assembly.’

    Blue Origin is doing a moon lander. 3000kg expendable cargo MK1. They're making a solar-cell making machine that uses lunar regulith to make the solar cells.
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 03,2023
  • "The 20th Century will be better remembered as the century of psuedoscience than of real science." - Watifalthist

    “Science as a mirror for beliefs”

    “It took the Germans and North Europeans to make use of it and finally conquer the world with it. Science went into the doldrums after that, but suddenly has reared its head again." - Malcolm McLaren, years ago
  • May, 2023
  • May 01,2023
  • AI presented researchers with thousands of possible VX-like chemicals (Verge article)

    "Of course, it does require some expertise. If somebody were to put this together without knowing anything about chemistry, they would ultimately probably generate stuff that was not very useful. And there’s still the next step of having to get those molecules synthesized. Finding a potential drug or potential new toxic molecule is one thing; the next step of synthesis — actually creating a new molecule in the real world — would be another barrier."

    ...

    "The big gap to start with is that you really don’t know if these molecules are actually toxic or not. There’s going to be some amount of false positives. If we’re walking ourselves through what a bad agent would be thinking or doing, they would have to make a decision on which of these new molecules they would want to synthesize ultimately.

    "As far as synthesis routes, this could be a make it or break it. If you find something that looks like a chemical warfare agent and try to get that synthesized, chances are it’s not going to happen. A lot of the chemical building blocks of these chemical warfare agents are well known and are watched. They’re regulated. But there’s so many synthesis companies. As long as it doesn’t look like a chemical warfare agent, they’re most likely going to just synthesize it and send it right back because who knows what the molecule is being used for, right?"

    "We just want more researchers to acknowledge and be aware of potential misuse. When you start working in the chemistry space, you do get informed about misuse of chemistry, and you’re sort of responsible for making sure you avoid that as much as possible. In machine learning, there’s nothing of the sort. There’s no guidance on misuse of the technology. "
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 10,2023

  • 2040 for most of the world, 2070 for the Antarctic.

    1987 CFCs were banned by an international treaty. This could be done so easily because substitutes for CFCs were available (unlike CO2, the other thing people are focused on for the climate).

    Anecdote. In 2018 scientists detected a rise in CFCs, and they were traced to factories in China. Soon after, CFCs resumed their downward trend.
      
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 18,2022

  • Science?

    The data it's based on can't be access by us, it's not public domain data. So it can't be peer reviewed, Campbell says.

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 02,2022
  • PRMs - Human humoral fluid-phase pattern recognition molecules

    Recognition and inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 by humoral innate immunity pattern recognition molecules
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 06,2021
  • Men are more upset about being deceived regarding a woman's looks, women more upset about his occupation or volunteerism

    Several hundred WEIRD (white, educated, industrialized, rich and democratic) undergrads around age 21 were studied.

    Sex Differences in Response to Deception Across Mate-Value Traits of Attractiveness, Job Status, and Altruism in Online Dating 
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 27,2021
  • Some scientific organizations now will censor themselves on anything that gives offense to others

    Reportedly, the Royal Society of Chemistry issued a letter to its editors to keep from publishing offensive content, which included the words, 'we bear in mind that it is the perception of the recipient that we should consider, regardless of the author's intention' and that they should look for anything that could potentially cause offense.

    They explicitly say what is offensive content: 'Any content that could reasonably offend someone on the basis of their age, gender, race, sexual orientation, religeous or political beliefs, marital or parental status, physical features, national origin, social status, or disability.'

  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 02,2021

  • People know, or at least reveal info about, their friends and family more accurately than about themselves, researchers say.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 01,2021
  • New material lattice

    ... which looks similar to a 3d honeycomb, and whose cells have 14 sides each, 3d printed from flexible polymer, then heated until only pure carbon remained.

    They shot sand-like particles at the lattice (similar to what space debris does). At low speeds it bounced off. At high speeds it gouged out craters, crushing the lattice, and remained lodged in the material (didn't pierce the material).



     
  • 'Time neurons' that help brain know when something happened (episodic memory)

    "The activity of the population of hippocampal cells allowed for decoding one temporal epoch from another."


    Human hippocampal neurons track moments in a sequence of events - Leila Reddy et al. at the French national research agency CNRS in Toulouse
     
  • 3d printing tiny lattices water climbs up

    The lattice cells are only 1mm wide.

    New printers are allowing for tiny cells to be printed which, similar to the way trees use capillary action and surface tension to draw water upwards from roots to leaves (which was the model copied here), overcome a problem we have when we try to use liquids (and gasses), which is that we have only been able to use a small part of their mass as their exposed surfaces (like the surface of a container of water). If we can arrange the liquid to have more surface, we can increase its ability to perform things like cooling and exchanging gasses.

    The lattices not only increase the amount of water we can have facing outward. They also bypass the downward pull of gravity (and in the future we'll be able to control the path the liquid takes along a lattice design).


     
  • May, 2021
  • May 01,2021
  • Convicts in private prisons serve 90 days longer than public prisons

    This is about 5% longer.

    In private prisons, the company's contract has it that they are payed a per diem for each occupied bed.

    "The delayed release erodes half of the cost savings offered by private contracting and is linked to the greater likelihood of conduct violations in private prisons. The additional days served do not lead to apparent changes in inmate recidivism," according to the author.*

    Mukherjee, Anita. "Impacts of Private Prison Contracting on Inmate Time Served and Recidivism."

     
  • How much is a dollar difference?

    A lot more than a dollar, according to research that concluded that Americans pay an average $33 more on auto loans, after analyzing a data set of 35m such loans.

    People perceive the difference between prices that end in 9 and one number higher that ends in 0 as being more different that just one dollar. This is especially true with numbers ending in 99 and 00.

    *An Empirical Bargaining Model with Left-Digit Bias: A Study on Auto Loan Monthly Payments. Zhenling Jiang

  • Conversations don't end when we want them to

    In fact, on average they last twice as long as desired, according to some new research at Harvard, which concluded that the reason for this is a 'coordination problem': conversants have no idea when their partner wants to end and think their partner wants to keep going.

    The reason for this 'unsolvable' problem is that conversants require information they usually keep from each other to know when to end a discussion.

    We usually end conversations through highly routine practices, they noted, such as re-stating the reason they started the conversation ("Well, I just wanted to see you you were doing") or making arrangements ("So let's sort out what time on Monday").

    *Do conversations end when people want them to? Adam M. Mastroianni et al.

  • Wasp benefits

    UC London and U East Anglia researchers studying wasps ave found that while people generally hate them, that hate is in large part due to ignorance about the benefits they bring.

    Their recent study points out that wasps are effective pest controllers. There are 33,000 wasp species. Some are specialized in which aphids, caterpillars or other insects they hunt as food, and can be used as pest control for crops that have to deal with those specific insects. Other wasps hunt insects more generally and can be used for multi-crop farms.

    They're also important pollinators, and some plant species are completely dependent on wasps for reproduction.

    There is also some evidence, although not much as yet, about various values of wasps for making medicine and as a food source.

    *Ryan E. Brock, Alessandro Cini, Seirian Sumner. Ecosystem services provided by aculeate wasps.

     

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  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • The Real Reason They Want to Ban TikTok - YouTube
    They're framing censorship as an act of self defense against a foreign adversary. The same as the did against Trump once they designated him a tool of Russia and proceeded to spy on him. It's how the war on terror was started. Afghanistan.

    ‘The problem is there’s always a national security excuse for anything you wanna do.'

    The next target would be X, Carlson thinks.
    Probably it's not lost on anyone that on TikTok the republican candidate is doing well, and X is considered the only chance of accurate information in the months before the election next November. Republicans and their issues are widely considered not free to speak on Facebook, YouTube, etc (all other major platforms) as well as most TV media, which are owned by Dems.



  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 11,2024

  • Free speech crisis is unlike past ones where the government explicitly did it. Incentivised by indirect carrots and sticks. Isolation and scapegoating for those who diverge from the common opinion.
    Those on the right, which doesn't control universities, are more interested in freedom generally, consituttionally averse to safety-ism because they are stiff-upperlip-resilient types, so they are more into free speech. Liberals consider free speech dangerous.
    Dr. Kathleen Stock on the Crisis of Academic Freedom: A Talk at the Launch of the CAF - YouTube


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 05,2024
  • 'Is That Not Speech?': Amy Coney Barrett Questions Lawyer About Social Media 'Editorial Control' - YouTube

    Trudeau TARGETS Canadians with NEW INSANE LAW! - YouTube
    ‘to impose house arrest on someone who is feared to commit a hate crime in the future -- even if they have not yet done so already.’ ‘could be make do wear an electronic tag'
    One commenter: 'I don’t know how much more people can take? We need 100% free speech- feelings be damned.'

    Hamilton Public Health delays suspension of high school students with overdue vaccines - YouTube
    A vaccine requirement for high school students. Students were notified they would be suspended if they didn't do it.
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/delaying-vaccine-suspensions-in-hamilton-1.7132546
    Diptheria, measles, tetanus.


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 01,2024
  • China's Crackdown on ‘Hedonistic’ Bankers Fuels Industry Brain Drain - YouTube
    Where are they going though? Some to Hong Kong, some from banking to crypto, to digital banking. 78% of banks have reduced personnel or something. Some big jobs pay have been cut in half.
    People don't want this many people in the sector, they want the sector to serve the people rather than lavish lifestyles. Government wants other sectors, like manufacturing. They want sectors to be self-regulated, so China doesn't have the corruption (which they have now).
    #China

    This P.E.I. senior has no fixed address. He says there aren't enough services for people like him - YouTube
    #Canada #Technology

    Has AI made it ok to say the economy is sort of stagnating (considering inflation)?
  • Why Were Campus Vending Machines Using Facial Recognition Software? - YouTube

    Police now need warrant for IP addresses, Canada's top court rules - YouTube
    #Canada
    Canadians should have a reasonable expectation of privacy for thier IP addresses, Supreme Court said. It would be an unreasonable search and seizure without a warrant. It is a breadcrumb on a trail that could tell Google or Meta a lot of information about that individual.
    Not the same ruling as two lower courts.
    The man had allegedly used fraudulent credit card info and the police had pursued the matter without a warrant.


  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • PROTEST

    India Locks Down Capital as Farmers Protest - YouTube

    "We are not a radical fringe," Freedom protesters return - YouTube
    Without warrant. Not even seeking a warrant (?because it's illegal for them to do this?). They're battling with a senator and ‘didn’t want to release this information.'
    US domestic internet traffic.
    We don't know which data brockerage companies are selling to them.

    London's ULEZ camera-blocking dinosaurs who "won't stop until hated scheme is scrapped" - YouTube
  • The NSA is BUYING Your Internet History?! - YouTube


  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024
  • PROTEST

  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024
  • 'UNCONSTITUTIONAL': Montana AG warns over IRS' new program - YouTube


    PROTEST
    Chaos in Brussels as farmer protesters clash with police in front of European Parliament - YouTube
    Montrealers protest Bill 31, demand housing minister step down - YouTube
    Moscow police detain journalists at anti-war protest | DW News - YouTube

  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • PROTEST

    How French farmers evaded police to block world's biggest food market | Dispatch - YouTube

    Vehicles as weapons of protest and notice these years. (What happens if people allow them to become electronic with kill switches out of their control?) If people were on foot, they would command much less attention, and be much easier to handle (riot police move in to a protest and disperse it with gas and unpleasantness, versus everyone in their big vehicle).


  • https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/98831/
    'suspected of publicly justifying terrorism and publicly spreading knowingly false information about the actions of the Russian Armed Forces' ...
    ‘In compliance with Russian laws, banks freeze the funds of people placed on this list and suspend the provision of services to them.’
    #terrorism

    The freedom to research and do great things.
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 26,2024
  • Blade Runners in UK.
    None of the CFL ULEZ signs tell you you've entered a zone where they're going to charge you.
    There's no turnback routes, opponents say.
    'I want my children to move freely, without having every single one of their movements tracked and traced and digitalized. They should be able to drive down to the coast to get fish and chips on a whim, without having to think Well, how much is this going to cost us? not only in fuel, but how many ghettos are we going to go through, and charged for passing through?
    Blade Runners: One Man Destroys EVERY SINGLE ULEZ Camera In His London Borough - YouTube
    ‘I know it’s a risk, but the alternative to just sit and do nothing is just not within us.'
    #UK
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • ‘I’m seven months pregnant’: Qld nurse fired for refusing COVID jab - YouTube
    #Australia

    Man who waved terrorist flag in Toronto charged with public incitement of hatred: police - YouTube
    Speech clearly illegal in Canada now.

    Bret Weinstein Exposes the World Health Organization’s Dark Agenda - YouTube
    The elmination of national and personal sovereignty at Davos right now being discussed, Weinstein says. Sign on to an agreement in which a director general of the WHO can define (climate change?) trigger emergency modifications to Constitution etc. The name of the document/proposal has shifted names, is in language you can't understand, game search engine tech perhaps. The number of items in it is hard to track.
    Proposed remedies WHO can mandate named are vaccines, gene therapy technology, travel/passports only for those who have accepted these remedies, forbid other medicaitons, censorship ie how these measures can be discussed.
    ‘Once we decide (allow) there is something above your doctor relative to your health, that can be an excuse for all manner of tyrany.’ ‘A coup against medicine by something else.’
    Those who oppose this public scare are not just failing to understand but are failing to protect others, and are demonized. Morality.
    A lot of this has to do with the death of journalists. Today's are biologists, scientists, talk show hosts, actors stepping in to fill this role.
    ‘The west is compromised.’ Weinstein. He thinks the west has already collapsed and the current state is a vague echo. ‘Consent of the governed is too dangerous to tolerate.’ We don't know who's driving it. We can see some of the partners.
    ‘They’re going to create some kind of chaos.'
    ‘Taking apart the structures on which we depend.’
    Why did Bret Weinstein, as a 50 something man, decide to say these things publicly? He doesn't think he has a choice, despite the problems it's caused him and his brother and their family. He doesn't think he'd be able to look himself in the mirror if he didn't say what he thought needed to be said. Bobby Kennedy Junior said that there are fates far worse than death, Weinstein cited. Humanity is depending on everybody who has a position from which to see what is taking place, to grapple with what it might mean, to describe it so that the public might understand where there interests are, to do what needs to be done if we're to have a chance of delivering a planet to our children and grandchildren that is worthy of them, a system that allows them to live meaningful, healthy lives, we have to speak up. ‘I don’t know how to do that.' He feels he can't tell people they need to do that, to take their risks, too dangerous to stand up then not enough to stand up to change the course of human history. If everyone stands up they greatly outnumber those we are pitted against, although they are ferociously powerful.
    Goliath, said Weinstein, made its biggest mistake during Covid, when it took all the competant people, all the couragous people, and shoved them out of the institutions where they were hanging on, and it created the dream team. All are now at least somewhat awake, have been picked on by the same enemy, they have all of the people who know how to think. Weinstein likes our odds.

    Here's What Really Happened on January 6th - YouTube
    He doesn't think military was involved, after looking at evidene. He thinks mainly FBI (at the highest level and government at the highest level) and then other law enforcement and capitol police was kind of tricked into participating.

    The last group they don't control is rural people who are self-sufficient.
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08,2024
  • Ohio men awarded $300K after they were thrown out of council meeting, arrested - YouTube

    'Police recording lists of citizens who've committed wrongthink is deeply sinister & authoritarian' - YouTube



  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 02,2024
  • State Sup. Crt. Rules You Do Not Have to Give Your Passcode to the Police - YouTube

    Your Driver's License Photo Could be Used in a Criminal Lineup - YouTube

    Lee Kuan Yew on "interfering" in the private lives of Singaporeans | From the archives - YouTube


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023
  • Transportation Authority Now Seizing Cars of Toll Evaders - YouTube

    Gravitas: Iranians dance to protest the crackdown on happiness - YouTube
    #protest
    An older man danced in public with 12 men providing chorus around him, it was on SM. The 12 were picked up and beaten. His SM profile, which also had videos of him dancing, was scrubbed and replaced with the emblem of the Iranian judiciary. ‘Shut down for creating criminal content.’ Many people have posted videos of themselves dancing to this song now. Even the Iranian national soccer team.
    The man's SM account was restored, reportedly.

    Encrypted Client Hello - Online Privacy's Missing Piece - YouTube
  • FCC comissioner


  •  



  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • Cars have been 'weaponized': Auto expert Mike Caudill - YouTube
    Through the idea of breathalizing.
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 12,2023
  • ¿Qué consecuencias tendrá para Panamá el cierre de la mina de cobre más grande de Centroamérica? - YouTube
    #protest

    Why Bill Gates Is Pushing for Global Digital IDs and Taking Over America’s Farmland – Seamus Bruner - YouTube

    On Hold for 11 DAYS Trying to Get Unemployment - YouTube
    In Michigan, he said, they had put in an algo that would detect patterns and decide ‘this is fraudulent’ and without a decision by a person, the system would act and issue a letter to the person ‘We’ve determined what you're doing is fraudulent.' When people said ‘No, I didn’t do anything fraudulent,' it was a problem trying to get that straightened out. ‘Some of the things that were flagged were inappropriately flagged.’
    One of the biggest issues employment insurance has is identity fraud.
    ‘Any time you call for someone to collect your money, they’ll answer really fast. Any time you call to complain, hm, not so fast.' Everyone has noticed this. It can be the same company. They route these different types of calls to different departments. Someone running the company has decided we will assign this many people to sales, this many to customer service. They've probably discovered that they can leave you on hold, and you probably won't change services.
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • ‘The First Amendment is a very qualified right.’ - Schreli

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0STyovb1y0

    #Protest

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5UqgY7OA48

    #India

  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRdEwWHvQlQ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ln4rsxWq3WM

    But the Mexican government didn't like that Samsung and Motorola did this, and economically punished them.

    The phone companies did this through the devices IMEI. It reached into devices and locked the users from accessing their info.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4N0tiuXNmKY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7I7W99OVcjo

    #Protest

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCwpkM1LSv0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1jaBOvClFg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR723ap2OvY>>

    They went to different court houses and thumbed through the warrants police gave Google to get info.

    In one case, a police officer's personal car was stolen, and the police requested Google for all the phones that were in the area at that time and also for all searches for the model of radio the car had. Google gave them location data but not search data.

    A search warrant used to be for an individual, but this is for a location or a seach term, and involves everyone. Geofence warrants. Keyword search warrants. Legislation has been proposed in CA and NY to ban these types of warrants. Google received 60k search warrants last year, double those of 2019.

    Is Google safeguarding user privacy? Google has a department for reviewing these requests. ‘If you collect this data, they will come to request it.’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqhUJPPR21g

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otqOqBlr3Z4

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/2Qs6kdvprt0

    Surveillance and control as a form of ‘violence’?

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04,2023
  • States look to involuntarily hospitalize people to confront growing mental health crisis - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023

  • Parents are expected to upload selfies to confirm their age. They will review the photos not ID and will assess how old a photo looks, to unlock the game.

    What kinds of things do we have people thinking about all day long when they're playing these games?

    Can A.I. steal your password? Study finds 95% accuracy by listening to keyboard typing - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 19,2023

  • Privacy anyone? Not so much.
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 03,2023

  • Didn't watch but.


    Nearly 1,000 arrested on fourth night of riots in France - BBC News - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 17,2023

  • India's laws and practices against what many consider human rights continues.
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 04,2023
  • “How can you say there's personal freedom in a place where you can't spend more than $1000 without all your information being taken down?" (Europe)

    Maybe Thailand Shouldn't Be "a Less Cash Reliant Society"? - YouTube 
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 07,2023


  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 26,2023
  • Schools and service providers used to say Never use your real name on the internet. Now schools hand that data over themselves as Google School Accounts. - Switched to Linux

  • "Just as we have due process rights in the physical world we should have due process in the digital world, and this isn't happening."

    Seems to misconstrue the idea of charter/BoR, because it says government doesn't have the right, but also no one has the right to do certain things like storing passwords.

    Backdoors assume criminals, no backdoors (instead, having to get warrants) assumes civilians.

    Why do we have core datamining apps preinstalled (and constantly auto-reinstalled) on phones.

    Mention of having to use an oath of someone as part of warrant. Doesn't seem to understand the wrongs embodied in the PatriotAct etc.


  • U.S. companies have already ‘done the same or worse’ as TikTok’s data-sharing: Rep. Bowman (D-NY) - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 23,2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 14,2023
  • App Leaks Telehealth Medical Data - ThreatWire - YouTube  
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 11,2023
  • Amex, Visa and Mastercard pause work on new firearms merchant code - YouTube 
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 10,2023
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 11,2022

  • This week the German government announced they'd arrested like 1000 people in a plot to overthrow their government and install a different leader.
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 05,2022

  • Example of how censorship is an expensive staple of government? Also an example of once a small minority speaks up, the 75% or whatever who are choosing left when they know it's right are less fearful to chose right?


  • It's still platformed on Rumble.


    Greenwald said Musk's definition is NOT the standard he is now using on Twitter.



    He's banning things that could not be interpreted as illegal. He's banning things that someone (many people or himself personally) find repugnant.

    A week later, headlines criticized Musk because he suspended accounts of journalists who had been tweeting the location of his private jet or something. He responded, 'You're not special because your a journalist. You dox you get suspended.'
     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 02,2022
  • You look around, you don't see a lot of positive examples of uprisings that turned out well (in the Middle East) - Alterman

    Because political elements (not just rights, which are inclusive)? Because authoritarian response? Because law on how to arm and how to enable security forces?

     
  • 18-29 year olds number one issue they care about is having rights taken away from them

    Harvard University Youth Poll
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 24,2022

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 09,2022
  • Report: EU democracy is under attack by mercenary spyware | Latest English News | WION - YouTube 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 06,2022

  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 09,2022

  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 11,2022

  • Protesting because of their savings.

    One sign read, 'No deposits. No human rights.' Interesting to contrast the impetuses that cause Westerners and Chinese to protest.

     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 05,2022
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 04,2022

  • Attention and brain waves.
  • May, 2022
  • May 31,2022

  • Blanket ban on hand guns, with an army of masked supporters behind him on the video image.



    How many handgun killings are there in Canada?



    Relevant that news has reported that over half of gun deaths in Ontario were from self harm.

    This follows the Texas school shooting.
  • May, 2022
  • May 23,2022
  • Microsoft Research guy commented on how if there were a breakthrough in privacy-preserving tech, there would be more use of AI

    Applications of AI to things like the huge datasets of medical records are bottlenecked by privacy issues.

    Lots of old research that was done, it has since been found that although no one knew it at the time, current tech can see that a person in one research group was the same person as in a different research group.

    Didn't know it at the time either, but scans of eyes can be used now to predict with some accuracy various thigns:


  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 27,2022
  • "The Israeli government on this front has not been putting in guardrails. They have been relentlessly realpolitik in making sure this tech gets to whomever they want it to get to to curry favor geopolitically, and not really considering the human rights consequences." - Ronan Farrow (talking about things his sources said)

    "[Israel is] the leader in this kind of tech [phone spyware]. And I think one think that has allowed this tech to flourish through several years of scandals about abusive misuse of it, is that policy makers said Well these are companies that are closely entwined with the Israeli government. The Israeli MoD oversees the purchases, the approve the countries to whom for instance NSO Group is selling. So it lent to the proceedings an air of legitimacy."

    It is a tool of soft power, helping states get this cyber-offensive spying capability. NYT etc reported recently US helped Djibouti (a military ally) purchase Pegasus. That software was used against Djibouti's PM and civilian officials.

    Farrow said that sometimes a government will go to Israel to buy it, and won't be approved, but the Israeli officials will say Hey go to these guys (outside of the official system) and they can give you this capability. Also that there are lots of other countries ready to step in to sell this capability if Israel were not to do so.

    Hari on Amanpour pointed out that who Israel sells (is allowed to sell) the software to shows global relations. (They weren't allowed to sell to Ukraine because Ukraine is fighting Russia.)

    The industry is supposed to be worth about $16b annually.

     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 15,2022
  • Shanghai residents forced from their apartments so State can use them as temporary quarantine facilities

    Videos of this are viral. (A few dozen it looks like) citizens clashing with police (police in white non-contamination suits). Wrestling as the police take away people protesting (I don't think you can even call this 'protesters').

    In another video a few dozen people assembled on a street in a protest against the closure of a school to be used as a quarantine facility. Police broke them up and forced them off the streets.

    Frustration and anger, leading to violence.

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 19,2022

  • EFF

     

  • ... reportedly, for the past 2 years during the Pandemic.

     

  • Arsenal Consulting

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 30,2021
  • FBI commanded Signal to give them account info

    Here's the account they wanted more info about, and Signal's (represented by the ACLU) response.

    Note that just because this appears like Signal is secure, it doesn't for sure mean it's not a smokescreen.






  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 18,2021
  • Dan Ellsberg interviewed by Tutsi Gabbard (US Rep Hawaii)

    (In 2019 or 2020)

    "I was the first person charged under the charges he [Assange I think he's talking about] is now facing. But I was charged as a source, and there wasn't one for 10 years after that. ... and then 3 and 9 and 1 other. There were 3 cases and then 9 under Obama. They were all either plea bargains or won in court. It's never gone to the Supreme Court.

    "Mainly they were sources like me, and they were using the Espionage Act, which was designed for spies, and has no provision in it for pleading any public interest. You can't argue in court. I wasn't allowed to speak in court to answer the question--I spoke for four and a half days--but I wasn't allowed to answer the question, 'Why did you copy the Pentagon Papers?'

    "So my lawyer, a consitution lawyer, said, 'Your honor, I've never heard of a case where the defendant was not allowed to tell the jury why he did what he did,' and Judge Burns said, 'Well, you're hearing one now,' and that's been true of every case since then..

    "So you can't get a fair trial as a whistleblower. ... you can't say anything about what the impact has been, whether there was harm, what you wanted to accomplish.

    "But it was never meant to be an official secrets act, a British type official secret s act. ... and in fact they said at the time, in 1917 when they passed this, we don't want an official secret act. The question was could you use it against a source like me. Well, that never had been done since 1917. So it was an experiment with me.

    ... But the new thing about this [Assange] is that it's the first time a journalist has been tried as a defendent, and that makes it into a full British official secrets act.

    "So it's not even just that he can't argue motives effectively, as a journalist he should not be ... it's always been clear to papers that sources, like me, should not be tried under the Espionage Act where they can't plead public interest at all. But the newspapers never got behind us very much.
     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 06,2021
  • Apple to put software on iPhones that will scan all photos user-side

    ... unlike things Microsoft and Dropbox currently do, which is scan images people upload to their cloud storage, Apple has said they are going to actually scan users phones themselves. They cited 'harm against children' as their auspice.

    Commenters have pointed out that in addition to just being privacy-invading and certain to lead to governments around the world monitoring journalists, dissidents, and everyone else, it means there will be unknown people in a room somewhere reviewing any photos they take of their children being bathed in a sink, etc.

    Commenters say it marks a change in direction for Apple, who had built a (somewhat dubious but somewhat popular) rep as going against attempts to invade their customer's privacy.

  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 28,2021
  • Turkish underworld figure, hiding out in Dubai, is blogging regularly about the dirt on Turkish politicians

    His name is Sedak Peker. Turks tune in every week for his updates, and the majority think there is at least some truth in them. Although many of the things he says are already known, that he is saying them and the evidence (although it seems there's not much in the way of evidence) makes people listen.

    His most recent video said he was now on a 'red list,' meaning there was a high chance he'd be killed, but said he would still do what he had said, which is talk about Erdogan. Erdogan has called it a 'conspiracy.'

    'People listen to him because the media here in Turkey has been silenced. They can't report many facts, so people prefer to believe what a Mafia leader says,' according to a DW Turkish Service worker.

  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 26,2021
  • US seized and blocked 33 Iranian media websites

    The US justice dept said the publishers, including a channel used by Yemen's Houthi rebels and 3 websites using by a Hezbollah group in Iraq, were using the sites to spread misinformation.The domains for the sites are registered in the US.

    Iran recently elected a new president who reportedly has already ruled out meeting with Biden, while negotiators from Iran, the US, Russia, China and other countries are working on revising the 2015 nuclear deal. Negotiators reportedly are close to a deal that would bring Iran again into compliance.

    Some wonder if the action has the possibility to derail the negotiations.

    Some critics point out that there is a concern in turning the domain name system (DNS) into a tool of geopolitical info warfare because that threatens the integrity of the internet and the global network.

    "What the US did to Iranian websites was a breach of all principles of freedom of speech, which the United States is proud of." - Some guy not identified by RT

    Who gets to decide what is info and what is misinformation? The censor of the internet?

     

Show More

Show Less

  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • Martin Kulldorff: Fired by Harvard for getting Covid right - YouTube

    Sundararajan: Chinese Government Might not Block the Sale of TikTok - YouTube
    No opposition from Congress or China either?

    Happiness has everything to do with 'family, life and adventure', says Harvard's Arthur Brooks - YouTube

    Sweet Baby Inc: In bed with the Canadian Government? - YouTube

    ‘Bad data’ is data that contradicts, missing, conflicting, or data that does not correct.'

    Apple Updates iMessage with Post Quantum Encryption - YouTube
    Signal added postQuantumEncryption before Apple. Signal is OpenSource, so other messaging apps will perhaps add their protocol soon.
    Frequently changing keys.
    Apple mentioned Signal a lot in their post, perhaps because Signal did what they are doing, but did it first. Months before Apple. Basically everything Apple is doing is what Signal did months ago.
    Signal had doubleRatchet for 10 years. OpenSource.
    Apple paid some fancy scientists to review their messenger app to make sure it was super secure. However, MO says its less good because its still closedSource. Such a level of adversary will target the platform rather than the individual. They don't have to worry if you're using Qubes, Linux, whatever. They know you're using an iPhone.
    With FOSS you don't have to just trust Apple and its scientists. You can actually review it.
    It's an iron fortress but built upon sand, said MO.

    New Satoshi emails might be a decoy, a Trojan Horse, a plant, and government maybe needs a new real crisis. From Debt to Hyperinflation: More Banks to Collapse As System Implodes, 'They Need a Crisis' – Zang - YouTube
    A banking recet after a crisis makes a CBDC easier.
    BFTP has expired.
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 11,2024
  • Chinese national, who worked for Google, allegedly stole confidential AI files - YouTube

    We're almost trained to not be influenced by (political) ads. But what about regular posts?


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 05,2024
  • DW News, March 2nd, 2024: Russian spy attack on German air force high-ups | Full Broadcast - YouTube
    Scanal. Germans talk about a bomb and sending it to Russia, and potential targets, allegedly.

    Ransomware attack behind over week-long City of Hamilton service disruption - YouTube
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 01,2024
  • This map lays out culturally-specific grocery stores in Scarborough, Ont. - YouTube
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • Google, Reddit enter $60M per year AI deal: Reuters - YouTube
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024

  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024
  • Eastern European states (all of them) are incentivized to underreport population (because of immigration). So on paper people live in Hungary but really live in Berlin or London.

    Seems Samo was right last year when he said Russian military's not in that bad a position, and Ukraine could or would probably lose. At that time MSM was all about the opposite. So was that to sell the need to spend the dollars on military consumerism?

  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • Education is secretly daycare. - Samo. As parents went to the factory and now the office.

    Prison labor keeps them busy.

    The main good of going to Harvard is demonstrating you made it to Harvard. What if there was something after college to prove?

  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 26,2024
  • Chinese Provocateurs Who Targeted YouTuber IDENTIFIED - YouTube
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • - YouTube

    It was pointed out how SEC etc have criticized Musk for the effects of his Tweets, and then their account was hacked and used to effect the markets.

    Hong Kong just had an election. People say it had more disinformation, fake info than any other election. It was all false. But now people are aware of this, they have other means of checking, fact checking.

    On SM, politicians don't have to have one coherent message. They can send out ads that say ‘Finally when we leave Europe (ie Brexit) we can have animal rights legislation’ and other ads to say ‘finally when we leave Europe we can have fox hunting again.’ Jimmy Wales. Deeply customized communication. Robo calls will be much higher quality, using big data you already know which info that demographic will go for.

    Misinformation versus malinformation versus disinformation. ‘Malinformation’ is based in truth but causes you to disbelieve in authority (ie caught in lies?), framed as ‘terrorism’ by government.
    #terrorism which is now (not a normal word as traditionally) a legal designation that causes all your rights to evaporate, Homeland Sec, what rights they have to silence you are not normal rights.

    Who investigates the investigator? In America that's Congress. But they need a DOJ that's receptive to their criminial referrales, because Congress doesn't have power to arrest. A brick wall constitutionally. ‘Until you have a president that will clean house at the DOJ and FBI,’ Higgins said, ‘... those guys are not going to arrest themselves.’
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08,2024
  • Airlines face government scrutiny over devaluation of frequent flyer programs - YouTube

    No one knows whether courts will force GPTs to pay (NYT) for use of their copyright material, and how the split would work.



  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 02,2024
  • Why reports of a surge in retail theft may be overblown - YouTube

    The doxxing of Beff Jezos | Guillaume Verdon and Lex Fridman - YouTube


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023
  • Fake Google Reviews for Mental Health and Addiction Treatment Centers - YouTube

    NY Times Sues Microsoft, OpenAI for Copyright Breaches - YouTube

    Vanderbilt's Daniel Gervais on NY Times lawsuit: A settlement makes business sense for both sides - YouTube




  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • Alex Jones reinstated on X.
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 12,2023
  • Now, there's more technology and less people actually touching things. So less journalists actually touching the story and less editors fact checking, and more opinion. Twitter used to provide access to these stories and places news wouldn't be, Zeihan commented, and this is how Twitter was in like 2014.

    False information is 90% of Zeihans feed now, he said, because Musk has done away with content moderation, although he said it had gotten better (before Musk) when they took out the Russian bots. He also like that, because he had 100k followers, he could immediately engage (they would respond to his account) with other users who could be sources for him. He said pornbots and cryptoscams get through to him.

    Ziehan said that he thought Musk was showing himself to be ‘just an unapologetic apartheid-era white South African.’ Why I'm Done With Twitter (or 'X' or whatever you call it) || Peter Zeihan - YouTube

    A commenter on Zeihan's video: ‘I agree Twitter/X has gone to crap, though it was always just crap of a different color. I disagree on why you are leaving, Peter. You stayed throughout it all but put your foot down only when Elon told Bob of Disney to go F himself, which is a very unpopular thing to do amongst the media overlords but overwhelmingly popular with the People. Racism is, as always, the card played but your hand is full of Jokers in a huff because someone said no to being held at gunpoint by cancel culture.’

    Another: 'To everyone here whining because he said something that's hard to accept, not everyone has time to wade through the bs free speech to find the good free speech. X needs to improve community notes fast. More people like Peter are checking out and soon this wonderful free speech experiment will just be another echo chamber.'

    Disney BACKLASH! Thousands CANCEL Disney Plus after Elon Musk calls out CEO Bob Iger! - YouTube
    Sony last month cut off access for users to Twitter/X.
    After Musk's recent talked-about statement F you to advertisers, hi Bob (only person specifically called out), some former Dis+ users have been posting Tweets of themselves cancelling their Dis+ membership.
    An election is coming up, and the other platforms are owned, and people consider X to be the only real chance at a fair information election. Without X, Dems who control all the other platforms could censor/control information pretty entirely. Tucker raised this issue.
    #XTwitter #Musk
    Some people think Iger wants to run for pres sometime.
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6khdlewOjjk

    - m

    Newpipe, Libretube, Freetube. GrayJay. Rumble Studio.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jnMeq6oTg4

    Jewish celebrities wrote a group letter to TikTok.

    IBM pulled ads from X after seeing its ads had been placed next to pro-Nazi (reportedly) content.

    If the Nobel organization picked one field per year that received no Nobel prize because ‘not enough progress was made' that would have a disciplining effect without a ‘bullshit check’. - Samo Burja idea

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymlhSb_k0Kk

    Info, ?fake info?, fake accounts with wild allegations to muddy the waters, debunking, fake debunking.

  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Bq-6GeRhys

    Bad trademarks are easist to get. Reviews can be purchased. Laziest solution is the most suited for Amazon-type stores?

    #Integrity

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkbS4cm9BKY

    No incentive for engagement as a business model. So no outrageous posts. Academics over influencers. Accountability, because how things are edited are transparent and documented and public.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIMI8H4SmQM

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FiJKpjKIfg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCHZCcKuezU

    Who can buy Disney's assets? Where 80% of Americans get their news, the government won't let just anybody buy it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQiAOeDoZY4

    Sweden (only in Europe) didn't lock down. It's rates were in line with other northern European/Scandanavian/Germanic countries, ie relatively low compared with Southern Europe. However, it's ‘excess deaths’ were the lowest in Europe.

    How does this lead to trust/distrust in government? The health authorities in Sweden are not politicians. They are not ‘part of the government’. They don't have a policy and then fight for it. They don't have to defend an ideology. Contrasted with Fauci.

    Twitter X is a way to reach people who don't watch TV, don't use much other social media. And maybe high quality users.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwpn7EwNmcs

    Info came from US, 5 Eyes System. “US has much better intelligence capabilities in Canada than the Canadian government does. Verified by British government." We've never seen Indian government assasinate anyone outside their own borders.

    Indian diaspora is the largest in the world. Interesting in considering the dynamics. What if India assasinates someone who acutally matters to someone. People (Indians in this case) who leave their country are often not very patriotic, so will Indians in Canada be louder than otherwise?

  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023

  • A level results: Biggest drop in top grades ever in England - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 05,2023

  • Facebook bowed to White House pressure, removed Covid-19 posts - WSJ - YouTube 
  • The Amazon Review Scandal - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 03,2023
  • polluting the information ecosystem with unverifiable AI garbage results
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 26,2023
  • US-Funded Scientist CONFIRMED As Covid Patient ZERO; Researcher Working On Gain-Of-Function: Report - YouTube 


  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 11,2023
  • Tucker Carlson published his first ep on Twitter.

    Water flooded near a Russian nuclear plant. Whoever did it would be considered a ‘terrorist’ under international law or something.

    Who did it? Both say the other side. But neither side has any integrity built up over time. So are we in a period where anyone can do anything, and no one will be sure who did it, since no one is in position to be believed?

    I tried watching on Twitter for the new experience, but it's better still on YouTube, until Twitter puts in different view screen sizes and speed control like YouTube, etc. Probably you don't want to watch this in less than 1.25x.

    “At this point we don't know what our leaders are doing. We're not allowed to know. By definition, that is not a democracy. And that's fine with the [mainstream] media. ... Stop asking how we got so rich. Here's another story about racism. Go eat eachother. ... That's how most of us now live ... manipulated by lies, silenced by taboos. It is unhealthy, and it's dehumanizing, and we're tired of it. As of today we've come to Twitter, which we hope will be the shortwave radio under the blankets [referring to illicit listening to information on radios in Soviet Russia]. We're told there's no gatekeepers here. If that turns out to be false we'll leave, but in the meantime we're grateful to be here.”

  • May, 2023
  • May 30,2023
  • People have been pondering if Musk is the new biggest Republican media mogul

  • May, 2023
  • May 01,2023

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 26,2023

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 25,2023
  • Twitter applies blue checkmarks to a bunch of accounts (big accounts, maybe all accounts over 1m)

    The blue check says the person paid $8 and verified their phone number, but lots of these people said they didn't do that, and many oppose the idea.

    There is also a legal angle. US fed law prohibits false endorsement of a product.

    Some found a way to remove their blue checkmark, but some saw Twitter restore it to their accounts several times, such as anti blue check mark comedian Dril.

    Last month (week?), Musk said he was personally paying for some celebrities blue check marks. So it's unknown whether he's paying for these new ones or they just applied the check mark to the accounts.

    From headlines and tweets, it seems this is reflecting negatively on Musk's reputation. However, there are also people on Musk's Twitter side, it seems, as anti blue check mark people have been 'trolled' as 'cheapskates'. So maybe we could say more divisive.

    It's been said before. Media is not the same game as engineering or product making.
     
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 12,2023



  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 29,2023
  • Mayor blocks private company from releasing Ohio derailment wastewater into Baltimore system - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 12,2023

  • With such a small clientele (a hundred or two VCs or something) why couldn't they communicate together to maintain the bank?
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 08,2023
  • Tucker Carlson making headlines for his presentation of before-censorted now-public footage of Jan 6

    Some placid scenes, and also scenes with the bullhead guy walking around peacefully.

    The original footage wasn't whole. I think the tiny intelligent part of the pop knew that at the time, and Carlson's is also not whole.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 01,2023

  • $80 per vial to $20.

    16% of people in US were rationing their insulin, a survey found recently.

    "This is something we almost never see drug companies do."

    There have been independent groups of people opposing insulin prices by trying to engineer their own insulin to sell it for less (I think $5 per vial or something), who recently said they're making good progress.
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 28,2023

  • China hits back at FBI lab leak theory I DW News - YouTube 
  • Headlines now say US energy agency says most likely Covid came from lab leak in Wuhan

  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 26,2023
  • The Media Is Seething After Woody Harrelson Drops Truth Bombs About Big Pharma During SNL Monologue - YouTube 
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 22,2023
  • Reportedly, China told tech companies there not to include chatGPT in their services.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 25,2023

  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 03,2023
  • On Twitter everyone is there to teach. They're all geniuses. On YouTube people put in a question, and they're there to learn.



  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 27,2022
  • "Is there a conspiracy theory about Twitter that DIDN'T turn out to be true." - Musk, on printing the Twitter Papers, and saying it was important to do so in order to have trust on the platform going forward.

    "So far they've all turned out to be true, and more true than people thought."

    Hunter Biden, government agencies.
     
    "And it couldn't just have been happening on Twitter, so what are we gonna do about all these other platforms." - Chamath

    Elon Musk on Fixing Twitter (Free Speech, Shadow Banning & Being CEO) - YouTube 
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 04,2022
  • How universities seem (super Liberal) don't actually reflect how the students are


    "Free Speech and Constructive Dialogue at UNC-CH," 2020 - a recommended study, said Rauch

    Many students want more conservative speakers.

    In US society, actually only 8% are 'Progressive Activists'. So a minority is having a strong effect.

  • Some popular (but not necessarily new) things contributing to suppression of truth/opinion - Rauch

    Subjectivism - My lived experience must be true

    Words that Wound - Hurtful words are violence, so they must be regulated, UN human rights violation

    Identity politics - Marginalized groups get special say
     
  • The drop in confidence in universities which accompanies the lack of ability to voice true opinions (when they dissent)

    A 12 point drop recently ("unprecedented").

    Homogeneity among faculty increasing.


    Especially in certain fields. 50 to 1 progressives to conservatives. If 1 in 4 members of a faculty are conservative, a student will encounter at least one. But at 40 to 1 students may never encounter a peer who supports other positions.

     

    Big schools.


    Many openly admit discriminating against the bids for grants of right-leaning grants. They openly admit it, they're proud of it. The others who don't admit it would increase the percentage. Faculty who are right leaning report feeling the climate is hostile, 70% of them. Centrists 35%. Left less than 5%.


  • Students at US universities belief their school climate (people will be offended) prevents people from saying things they believe, on the rise


    Not just universities. General population.


    Happened in the 60s, Rauch says. People are chilled because they're concerned about the consequences of people and what they say.

    Americans self sensor now much more than during McCarthy era. Rauch says maybe because during McCarthy you could say you were against communism and you would pretty much be OK, whereas today you don't even know what things will give offense. No boundaries, no safe harbors.


    Note the sense of futility, of demoralized population. They will instead just sit at home.


  • How far down the Mussolini State road have we gone as a society?

    "It's a dangerous question [somewhat jokingly said]. ... It's way further than I would like. On the other hand we have conferences like this [Stanford Academic Freedom], we can talk about things. A lot of things we get in trouble for but we can still talk about them in small groups, anonymously. There are parts of the internet that have been taken over by the State but the internet still is in some ways more free than it was 20 years ago. ... There's an uncomfortable entanglement that the US has with China, where we're rivals but the danger is always, 'You have to chose your enemies well because you'll soon be just like them,' and are we going to copy the same sort of surveillance totalitarian AI that China has and impose that in the US?" - Peter Thiel
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 02,2022

  • A post with a swastika inside a star of David.

    Don't know how long. There's no bans, only suspensions.



     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 21,2022
  • Musk did a Twitter poll to ask if Trump should be reinstated

    Then tweeted that the people have spoken, and reinstated Trump's account


    Trump reportedly said he preferred to stay on his Truth Social app, and that Twitter had too many bots and fake accounts.

    Trump has under 5m followers on both apps.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 03,2022

  • 'Hate speech' disappears as a category. It is just someone else's opinion. Just remove spam and porn.

    If you label info as 'false,' you have to prove it's false.
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 10,2022

  • Send me photos and location data, please honey.
     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 12,2022

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 18,2022
  • NJ passes law mandating civics class for all middle schoolers

    (This happened several months ago. Supposed to be mandatory in 2022/2023 school year)

    "The insurrection was alarming to many people and served as a wakeup call that we need to prepare future generations about civics and government." - Sen Shirley Turner (D)

    "So maybe 30 years of not having civics, this is what you get." - Arlene Gardner, President of NJ Center for Civic Education, who is developing the curriculum

    "One of the areas that we've really started working on is those skills for having a CIVIL discourse when you disagree with people."




     
  • Is having 'moderators' a failed social technology?

    Today, I was cancelled from two social media platforms. After questioning a redditor about his statement about a legal topic, and him responding, and me reviewing the case he cited and responding, it seems he just banned me (was not able to comment further - just read 'error' or something).

    Then someone posted a news issue saying how much violence there was in the city/state I live in, and I posted stats (literally facts, numbers, putting it in context with the US's cities and states. I received a comment from the platform saying my comment had been removed.

    I generally don't post comments on Facebook, but thought I'd contribute today, but after that I see no reason to try to comment on it in the future.

     
  • "I trust random bloggers on the internet more than I do the CDC" - random interviewer on YouTube

    ... a sentiment I'm hearing a lot. They base this on the epistemic inferiority or conspiracy of government officials in how they handled the pandemic and spoke to the public.

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 14,2022
  • White House changed a transcript after Harris made a mistake in a speech

    Kamala Harris said "The United States stands firmly with the Ukrainian people in defense of the NATO Alliance (applause).

    In the official transcript, they added in brackets [and] before "in defense."

    White House changes Kamala Harris' 'mistake' in official transcript - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 12,2022
  • US tech giants info-actions against Russia

    Without being forced to, they've taken actions against Russia, Russians, and Russian information sources.

    Facebook reportedly will allow posts calling for violence against Russia and its president.

    Wion asked, "Isn't this criminal? Won't this promote hate? Won't this incite hostility against all Russians?"

    Google barred the Russian government from monetizing content. Apple stopped sales in Russia and cut Russia off from the ApplePlay, and has blocked RT and Sputnik outside Russia. Twitter is labeling all posts that are pro-Russian and adding a label on pro-Russian stories.

    Wion said that Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Amazon were awarded $44.5b from the DHS and DoD. For aiding the US military, providing them with digital tools that can be used in wars. Including access to databases, cloud computing, surveillance, drone tech and pushing narratives.

    Wion also pointed out the revolving door for professionals that work in big tech and then in government. And former government who now are controlling big tech companies.


     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 01,2022
  • "What bothers me is how superficial and ill-informed the whole Senate debate was. I was particularly bothered by the references to Russia as a country dying to attack Western Europe."

    George Kennan, architect of US's successful containment policy of Soviet Union, in 1998, after the senate after under Clinton US started to talk about expanding NATO, contrary to agreements made to the Soviets in 1990 as part of the talks to unify Germany.

    "I think it is the beginning of a new Cold War. I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely, and it will affect their policies. I think it was a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else. ..."

    "... Of course, there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then the NATO expanders will say that 'We always told you that is how the Russians are ...'"

    "NATO expansion was simply a lighthearted action by a Senate that has no real interest in foreign affairs."

     
  • Ukrainians are constantly glued to TV and internet to get info, but also to confirm it is a true story

    Recently some posts went viral showing an air convoy of Russia AF, which was a video from a year or so ago.

    Today there is a Russian strike on a Kyiv TV tower, and news presenters in America talking to people in Ukraine, one of the first thing that gets clarified is that, "Yes, this is a true story."

    They verify by checking multiple news channels.

    Within Russia, on the other hand, it has been said, TV and internet is controlled by the state.

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 28,2022
  • Lots of people impressed by things they're reading about regular Ukrainians, school teachers, etc and what they've decided to do in the face of the invasion

    They've been called 'bad ass' by some Americans. It's thought this might be one of the big aspects in causing European nations to decide to really help Ukraine.

    It's been noted that Putin could have used cyber attacks to cut off the internet from Ukraine, but hasn't done anything like that.

  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 07,2022
  • There's apparently a US trucker protest now

  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 06,2022
  • Joe Rogan currently most popular broadcaster in English-speaking world, maybe.

    11m people viewing every ep. Some a lot more. Compare with CNN's highest rates show last night with 700k viewers.

    He's not politically partisan.

    Neil Young made headlines last week for issuing an ultimatum or something to Spotify that it was his music or Rogan, who he said was spreading misinformation (about the pandemic). Spotify picked Rogan. But Spotify has deleted over 20k videos that talk about the pandemic, but made by other podcasters. Spotify said they cause harm. Harry and Megan have a $125m deal with Spotify, and they threatened to leave, opposing Rogan.

    Tucker Carlson noted that Whitehouse spokesperson Jen Psaki's recent comments that 'there's more that can be done' was tantamount to something the government's not allowed to do constitutionally, using government power to shut down broadcasters who criticize you. Last week Rogan made a comment about Psaki, who had recently been talking about shutting down misinformation, while SHE distributed misinformation by saying the Pfizer vaccine was approved by the FDA in their gold standard.

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 02,2022
  • Canadian Freedom Convoy

    ... is a large group of semi truck drivers who are making their way across Canada, in a protest against the liberties the government has taken against human and civil rights under the banner of Covid measures.

    Makes it actually visible, there is an opposition, and gives people an opportunity to partake in this voice. It is a world wide news story. It is also longer term, since it's been in the news for weeks now.

    "It can't be ignored," some people noted about it.

    Politicians in Canada have reportedly tried focusing on the Confederate Flag and a Swastika (MSM apparently doing a lot of the disparagement work in this), as if people were rallying behind either of those in any meaningful way. And there's reportedly been some political attempts to stop the GoFundMe funding. Or they already froze it, with over $10m raised by 130 or 140k people. Facebook also kicked off the 130k people who subscribed to a group for American truckers to get involved, or something.

    Brian Peckford went on Jordan Peterson's podcast to publicly announce his legal challenge to the government's restrictions on Canadians' civil liberties because he didn't think he could get the truth told about what he was doing on ANY other Canadian news outlet, Peterson commented.

    Last Friday the police were talking about doing digital tracking, reportedly. And now protesting isn't allowed, I heard.

    PM Trudeau apparently will not talk with the truckers.

    I would perhaps say, though, that the MSM and politicians in that country have always been like this, and have frequently misrepresented events and news, but that there's never been anything that's happened that any amount of Canadians have cared enough about.

    Trudeau publicly called the people protesting a "small fringe minority" "who are hold unacceptable views," although I doubt he would, if given time to think about this statement, really state any views were unacceptable, maybe.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 06,2021
  • "It started with Alex Jones. This is nothing new. And I think Alex Jones was the test case to see who you can silence under the pretext of 'protecting,' and they got away with it with Alex Jones, and it's only escalated since then." - David Freiheit

Show More

Show Less

  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • Scientists say they can cut HIV out of cells | BBC News - YouTube
    ESG subsidies may be drying up, and capitalism is showing people not buying them.


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 11,2024
  • More microplastics research. Cardiac event patients in the hospital volunteered their plaque to be tested. It was on average 2% microplastics (which may be acting as a scaffold for plaque to some extent). In 36 months, they had a 4x chance of death (cardiac, stroke, etc) when they had plastics versus when they didn't.
    It appears microplastics which are in blood etc touch cells, triggering an immune response which results in adverse health conditions.
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • Study finds large amount of foods contain plastics - YouTube
    Cherios has 11k nanograms of phthalates per serving. Burger king whopper 20k, Wendy's nuggets 34k. Annie's Organic Cheesy Ravioli, a childrens food in a can, topped the list with 54k. The plastics leach out of plastic bags and container.
    You should eat less processed food, say experts, and don't microwave in or store in plastic. Use glass.

    Recall: Harmful pesticides found in cereals, according to study - YouTube
    Cherios.
    Americans don't know what's in the food they eat on a daily basis.
    80% of Americans have testsed positive for clormoquat.

    Covid Vaccine Study Finds Links to Health Conditions - YouTube
    Dataset of 100m people.

    Consumer Reports says General Mills has "concerning" levels of phthalates in food products - YouTube


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • FEATURE:Japan's high-end medical services attract affluent Chinese tourists


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • Why you may be eating and drinking more microplastics than you thought - YouTube

    40% of Americans are obese. Blacks and Hispanics.

    New study everyone's talking about with plastic bottles. Before, people had considered the amount of stray plastic in a water bottle as a unit. Now they found that it's 10k tiny plastic particles in a bottle, small enough to enter cells and to pass the bloodbrain barrier.
    There's also a lot of plastic in the ocean.
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023

  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 12,2023
  • FDA Approves First Crispr Treatment for Sickle Cell Disease - YouTube
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH30GIjb3cg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UJqhG1I7tY

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • New York City public hospitals overwhelmed by increase of migrants - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 13,2023

  • Almost no one I meet has any faith in government, government health issuance/authority, or vaccines themselves, anymore. This is a stark change from when the pandemic started, when the massive majority of the population was willing to believe anything the government said, despite any evidence you might show them, which they just ignored, partially, perhaps, because they had already made committal statements in favor, or had already taken action, after which its hard to change your mind publicly. We know today about the same amount about the disease as we did within the first couple weeks about it (although the information is more common in the commons now). The things we didn't know at that time are that the vaccines would be mandated (we thought they would be voluntary), that the vaccines would be mRNA (we thought they would be regular vaccines), and that the government would not do anything to protect people from the Big Pharma profit making, and instead all governments (almost) just cooperated.

    The common people who got the vaccines obediently and docilely, too, today we find making statements against the government, and are easily enraged talking about this.

    Perhaps this is the way it works. I wondered how they would eventually come around, if at all, once they had already committed to the other side of the argument, but it seems they are able to come around by hating the authority and saying 'they tricked everyone'.

    Remember when during the first vaccines families were being broken apart because people fell on both sides of the argument? Now it seems most people are on the anti-vaccine, which is also an anti-government, side.







  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04,2023
  • CDC, increased infection risk in vaccinated - YouTube 

    Campbell says two things happening ATM. Biden wants everyone to get new vaccine. And that the new strain, people with vaccines more likely to be affected than unaffected people.

  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023
  • 62 nicaragüenses han fallecido en EE.UU., infarto es la principal causa - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 14,2023
  • JRE: This Drug Makes You Gay? - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 14,2023
  • Aspartame May Cause Cancer Says the WHO | Educational Video | Biolayne - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 17,2023

  • Vaccine spike proteins have a similar chemical profile to that of the mylin sheath peptides, so the CD4+ helperT cells which are trained by the vaccine to recognize that chemical profile can end up recognizing mylin as the same object to attack. Results in MS.

  • Epstein-barr virus (mono, the kissing disease). About 90% or 95% of people have had EBV. Not everyone gets MS, but everyone (almost, and perhaps false positives) who got MS had EBV. The etiology is now known, and a vaccine may be applied. (Similar to polio.)
  • How 3M And DuPont Are Being Sued Over ‘Forever Chemicals’ In Water - YouTube 
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 12,2023
  • A Spike in Mysterious Deaths - Why are Young People Suddenly Dropping Dead Worldwide? - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 11,2023

  • PFASs and heavy metals.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 08,2023
  • 'Is That Accurate?': Jim Jordan Calls Out Dr. Fauci On Lab Leak Using His Own Correspondence - YouTube 
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 28,2023
  • UK data, massive shift in vaccine risk / benefit analysis - YouTube 
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 25,2023
  • "If the situation has got to that level, as doctors if we can't speak up for our patients when we think harm is being committed, the word 'doctor', the meaning of 'doctor', disappears - Dr Aseem Malhotra

    Talking about how in Cali if you speak against the dominant (enforced) narrative you automatically could get your license revoked.

  • Under age 50.
     
    "At the moment in my country you can take a perfectly healthy child in to see a professional healthcare advisor, healthcare practitioner, and they will inject a healthy 5-year-old child with a messenger ribonucleic acid vaccine. That is the current position in my country at the moment. I'm not allowed to disagree with this. I merely report it."
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 23,2023
  • Switzerland Group To Provide Unvaccinated Blood Transfusions For The Unvaccinated - YouTube 
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 18,2023
  • Immunology of mRNA vaccines - YouTube 
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 31,2022

  • Safety profile.

    Scientists still can't get data from governments, 2 years later, to even be able to do a real assessment.
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 28,2022

  • African countries aren't seeing Covid cases.

    WHO is still saying countries should aim for 70% vaccination rate.

    Why would we want to increase the vaccination rate in a country like Uganda, when they don't have a problem with it, Campbell asked.

     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 04,2022
  • Many people are uncomfortable with mRNA vaccines because they're only a step away, they're adjacent, from something that was going on on the Wuhan labs called Gain of Function research, which is basically biowarfare - Peter Thiel


    All technologies, drab dystopian future, building the machines that will destroy the future.

    AGI research people used to work hard on it, and say we have to find a way for it to coexist with us, but by 2015, Thiel said, it had devolved into people not really working on it very hard and people quite pessimistic about it's potential. From transhumanist to luddite. A superhuman AGI you would never know what its real intentions were. There was a problem, they avoided it for 20 years, and one day they woke up and the best thing they can do is hand out Cool-Aid, ala People's Temple, to everybody.

    Another solution is a One World Totalitarian State.

     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 02,2022
  • Gravitas: The indirect impact of COVID - YouTube 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 27,2022
  • Quite a lot of large YouTube channels (doctors, others) are talking about higher levels of sudden cardiac arrest

    Among them John Campbell.
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 25,2022

  • "For the first time we have data in the US that says there's been more deaths (58%) in people that are vaccinated versus people that are unvaccinated." However, more Americans (82%) are vaccinated.

    Sept 21 it was 23% vaccinated people, Feb 22 42%, now August 58%. "We can no longer say this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated." Protective effects waned.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 24,2022

  • Peer reviewed literature used to be looked as as totally reliable. AsMuchAsPossible analytical.

    John Campbell apologized in this video for using peer reviewed science in journals as information when he spoke to his audience. Lancet, Nature Medicine, now open to doubt.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 20,2022

  • Lots of well-meaning, rushed steps regretted here.

    2 years 9 months since Feb 2020.

    Relative risk versus absolute risk highlighted (95% protection had been announced, 1% absolute).

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 16,2022

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 26,2022

  • "Pfizer Inc expects to roughly quadruple vaccine price,to about $110 to $130 per dose,after the United States government's current purchase program expires"

    China has severe measures. Still doing lockdowns. Yet, Campbell raises the question, although they have the capacity to do mRNA vaccines, they have opted not to. Why?

     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 09,2022
  • Doctor on FDA Vaccine Advisory Committee disagree with COVID booster guidance - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 21,2022

  • Idiocy reversed?
     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 20,2022

  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 07,2022
  • In the 1960s, less than a percent of the German population was diabetic. Now it's 10%.
     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 22,2022








  • May, 2022
  • May 31,2022

  • Cause to feel uncomfortable?

  • May, 2022
  • May 18,2022
  • Baby formula shortage in US

    A big plant (Abbot in Michigan) was put on pause by the FDA. After some reports of infection after babies ate certain baby formulas.

    Baby formula is the most regulated food.

    Some have talked about how we may have a strategic security stockpile of energy, but not of food.

    You can make your own formula, but just be careful.

    For babies age 0-3 months:

    -(non-fat free) evaporated milk: 1 can of formula to 4 of water
    -Boil to homogenize

    That's it. But you can also add (sold as liquid form) vitamins.

    Store in the fridge and use for 24 hours. Not more than 24 hours (dispose of it), because it will start to grow mold/bacteria.

    For babies aged 3-6 months:

    -1 can of evaporated milk to 3 cans of water. (ie less water)

    For babies aged 6-9 months:

    -1 can of evaporated milk to 2 cans of water

    9 - 12 months:

    -1 can of evaporated milk to 1 can of water

    ALWAYS boiling to hemogenize. ALWAYS dispose of it after 24 hours.
     
  • May, 2022
  • May 03,2022
  • Bill Gates published a book called "How to prevent the next pandemic"

    Dr John Campbell pointed out, If it really is how people can save their and others lives, why is Gates, one of the richest people there is, selling it for $25 a pop? Dr John Camplbell has free pdfs of his books.

    Short on money?

  • May, 2022
  • May 01,2022

  • Calls increase after the first second, and other vaccinations for people under 40.


  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 27,2022


  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 26,2022
  • Comments on vaccine ads
     
    (insert video later)

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 24,2022

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 18,2022

  • The drug FDA professionals resigned over, right?


  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 17,2022
  • Transmissible infection catchup

    There is currently a noticeable increase in hepatitis among children in UK and other areas. Significant percentage of them had had liver transplants (only done when needed in children). Reportedly, at least two of them had had contact, so the cause (unknown) is possibly contagious.

    It's not the first instance of higher infection rates this year. One cause is lockdown measures, which kept people from being exposed to the regular number of things, so these things are now playing catchup, it has been said.

    What is the effect of this in terms of how when less people are susceptible, an infectious disease travels less far whereas if less people are resistant the disease could travel further and faster? Is the net effect of the disease equal, greater or less?
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 12,2022

  • 250k deaths in Africa (1.4b people) reported. In US, 1m (340m people). Note that this data is not great. Reporting is one thing, and another is that many countries, including the US, include any death where the person had Covid at the time as a Covid death (which has been criticized by doctors and others).

    Vaccines produced by the West were not shipped to the global south, and were sometimes shipped after becoming expired.

    3/4 of the 6b doses globally went to 10 countries. Those countries gave their citizens 3rd and 4th doses (of tax subsidized vaccines) while not giving the other poorer countries even one dose.

    2nacheki said the pandemic has been racial.


     
  • Watch knee replacement using the MAKO Robotic arm - YouTube 
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 08,2022

  • How CDC's Vaccine Safety Missed Cases of Myocarditis | ID doc Dr. Katie Sharff discusses new study - YouTube 

  • "Let's review the Israeli study published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) recording that the efficacy of the 4th vaccine dose dwindles within 4 weeks. This efficacy reduces to 10% within 8 weeks."



     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 31,2022

  • Africa, High natural Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, 65% end of 2021 (very variable, for example high in cities while low in the countryside).

    Not by means of any 'great coordinated global effort to give people vaccines.'

     

  • Commercialization of academia, failed regulation, corporate interests, corruption.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 09,2022
  • Pfizer documents have been made public (UPDATE: This research paper has been withdrawn and reports have it that the report is 'flawed,' so the following is not solid information. Keeping it here and we'll see what happens with this later.)

    ... although some parts seem to be redacted (removed from the document).

    It was made public finally now, it seems, by court order, after a FOI request by a group called the Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency.

    The data covered a 3-month (at most) period, early on in the vaccine between Dec 1 2020 and Feb 28 2021.

    In that time, there was 42k cases of adverse affects (25k medically confirmed and 16k not). 42k out of how many doses given we don't know, because that figure seems to be redacted. The document says, "It is estimated that approximately (b) (4) doses of BNT162b2 were shipped worldwide" in that 3 month period. So without that number, we can't figure out a percentage of people who had adverse affects to vaccines.

    There were 1200 fatalities in that period resulting form the vaccine, according to the document.

    The documents are not new. The last data in it is form like Feb 2021. The report was published on Aug 2021 (but the people in the company would have had access to the data from the time it was complete, like Feb 21).

    Campbell asked why this information wasn't published before. It is health information, he noted. We weren't able to weigh the effectiveness of the vaccine when we were considering it, but could have done so better if these documents had been available, he said.

    If we had been aware of the long (several pages) list of medical conditions resulting from the vaccine, hospital staff could have kept an eye for them to better treat them, Campbell noted.

    Currently, many people (and MSM) are preoccupied with the war in Ukraine). Doesn't seem MSM is going to make much of this story.

    Campbell referenced Hippocrates, "First do no wrong." He said he thinks this has destroyed the people's trust in authorities.


     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 21,2022
  • Woman cured of HIV

    ... third person ever. First woman.

    14 months since being cured without symptoms.


     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 18,2022
  • Cases of Omicron variant rising in New Zealand



  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 14,2022
  • Israeli study makes mainstream the already-known correlation between vitamin D and infection severity

    14x risk of a severe infection if a person has deficient vitamin D level. According to another study from April 2020, risk of death from Covid 10x when the person has deficient vitamin D.

    Yet not talked about by governments. Only vaccines.



    Ivor Cummins comments that high vitamin D levels (or even adequate) is not just about taking lots of vitamin D pills, but rather is about eating an actually healthy diet of good foods, and also getting sun (up to a light pinkness not burning skin). But vitamin D pills are helpful in raising vitamin D levels, obviously.

    Cummins says a comfortable level of vitamin D that makes for a decent immune system function is around at least 30ng/ml.

    People used to have better vitamin D levels than now, according to Cummins. The percentage of vitaminD-deficient white people basically halved to 30% and black people went form like 10% to like 2% (melanin versus sun to produce vitamin D) between like 1991 and like 2002. Mexicans and other tawny people are in between whites and blacks.

    D3 half-life (from vitamin D pills or from sun) is a day or two. Ie daily routine is important for vitamin D (you can't just superboost it one per week or something and expect results that will work every day in between these superboosts). When you eat the pills, it goes to your liver to be converted to the active metabolite 25-OHD. For a vitamin D-deficient person, they might need 5000 - 10,000 IU of the vitamin pills per day.



      
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 11,2022
  • Most children now have natural immunity - YouTube  

  • Dr John Campbell: Myocarditis after vaccination, firm data - YouTube 
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 01,2022
  • Politicians have shifted to saying 'get vaccines to prevent infection' to 'get vaccines because they lessen severe symptoms'

  • Data now shows natural immunity about the same as natural immunity plus vaccines

    (the two bottom lines, which basically overlie each other (not the middle line which is just a bit above the bottom two):)


     
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 15,2022
  • We didn't have a discussion that says 'Where is the threshold?'

    ... 'We all agree, right? that there are circumstances so dangerous that your normal instincts should be put on hold. That if the ship is sinking, then that is the priority.

    'What we have not discussed is, OK, at least the initial variants of Covid were worse than the flu. How much worse than the flu does something have to be before you turn society upside down? Before you allow small businesses to be destroyed and all of that wealth transferred to their gigantic competitors?' - Bret Weinstean

  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 12,2021
  • Vitamin D - 4000 IU
    Vitamin K2 - 200 micrograms
    Zinc - 10mg (40mg considered high limit)

    Daily recommendation from Michael Cohen on Dr. John Campbell's channel. He said that if people had treated the disease differently (done vitamins etc), he wasn't sure there'd be anything like the current justification for an international pandemic.

    4000 IUs is for a regular adult. An overweight adult could merit 8000 or even up to 12000 IU. (Fat cells store but don't use D.) Also, Cohen tests patients for low Vitamin D levels.

    Aiming for a level above 50 nanograms per milliliter. For viral infections like Covid and the Flu.

    Vitamin D can be consumed without bad effects. Studies did 50k IU for 6 months and had no health issues from it.

    K2 is because D releases calcium into the blood, which could settle in clumps over time. 100 of K2 for people taking over 4000 IUs of D. People taking 1000 or 2000 IUs of D don't need K because their levels of D aren't high enough to liberate enough K.

    Zinc increased up to 50mg twice per day during a viral infection, Cohen said.

    Zinc should be added to Hydroxychloroquine, it seems to Cohen, for best results. It seems to make the difference.

    D takes time to take effect, to get to effective levels in the body. Like a few days to have an effect, a few weeks to get to effective levels. Zinc can have an effect within less than a day.

    Vitamin D in Israel
     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 14,2021
  • Dr John Campbell gets 'may be misleading' warning on his video by information gatekeepers

    Here's his response, he starts from the 'may be misleading ... click here to find out why,' and clicks to find out why: Alternative facts

     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 10,2021
  • Dangerous metals in spices on US shelves

    According to Consumer Reports, 1/3 of samples contained concerning or dangerous levels.

    Didn't matter if they were 'organic.'

    Every brand tested had lots of lead, arsenic and cadmium.

    Reasons? May be grown in areas where heavy metals are abundant in the soil. Grown and imported in large quantities because they're popular.

    Probably won't harm anyone eating a few times a week, but if combined with other sources of exposure like in water and in foods, it could be dangerous, particularly for children whose bodies are still developing. Heavy metals can't be easily cleared or metabolized, so they accumulate in the body.

    Consumer reports put a list on their website so people could check the dangerous ones and throw them out.

    The industry is largely self-regulated, and checks (FDA) are usually for bacteria (like salmonella).

     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 05,2021
  • Molnupiravir is now the first pill being taken to treat Covid

    They're supposed to take it when mild symptoms appear, and it's assumed the drug cuts death by 50%. It's not a guarantee of success, and doesn't work in everyone, so it's not a replacement for a vaccine.

    Inside cells the virus gets replicated normally. Molnupiravir introduces changes to the genetic code, and that stops it being replicated. And if you can't produce more genetic code, you can't have more virus.

    Molnupiravir was originally developed to treat flu, but apparently has other applications.

    They're also using steroids.

    Merck-MSD has applied for patent.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 30,2021
  • 32% reduction in death from Covid from fluvoxamine (usually an antidepressant)

    A 10-day course costs around $4. A well-known, essentially safe medication.

    Study published in Lancet.

    A proper trial, although there was earlier a test about this in France.

    700 medicated and 700 placebo in Brazil (also of import, most Brazilians are not vaccinated). Treatment began 2-7 days after symptoms began.

    It may have antiviral effect, but these aren't known. How does it work then? It's anti-inflammatory (it reduces inflammation inside the cells). Therefore it could prevent the cytokine storm (alveoli filling with fluid). Some antiplatelet activity also. Also increases plasma level of melatonin (improves sleep often).

    Prozac (floxamine) is another SSRI (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor), and though not currently known, may do the same thing.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 25,2021
  • Beginning to delivery less than a year

    for Phizer, sequence a virus and have a vaccine in 9 weeks. 'Compression of time.'
     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 05,2021
  • "We do know that the immunity after vaccination is better than the immunity after natural infection"

    ... is what the FDA has been saying, which seems to contradict evidence and the opinion of experts. Unless 'better' in this sentence means something other than 'more effective.'

    They say 'it appears ... that natural infection provides immunity, but that immunity is seemingly not as strong and may not be as long lasting as that provided by the vaccine.'

    They say that 'generally the immunity after natural infection tends to wane after about 90 days.' Also contradicts science.

    It also contradicts the position of the UK and Israeli data.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 13,2021
  • Some experts disagree with US gov over booster

    Key FDA meeting coming up. The US gov plan is Sept 20, 8 months after the 2nd dose people can get a booster. FDA Commissioner Woodcock said "We conclude that a booster shot will be needed to maximize ... protection ..."

    In the Lancet today 2 doctors from the FDA (who have announced their retirements due to frustration over how the FDA is handling the booster plan) and 16 other scientists published a letter saying they think current protection is holding up so "Current evidence does not, therefore, appear to show a need for boosting in the general population."

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 01,2021
  • New way to lower blood pressure: Strength training breathing muscles

    You suck at a straw that has resistance to sucking. The current regimen being used by researchers is 30 inhalations per day at high resistance.

    "IMST can be done in five minutes in your own home while you watch TV."

    The benefits were significant. Systolic bp dropped 9 points on average (exceeding benefits of 30 minutes walking 5 days a week), and equivalent also to some bp-lowing drug regimens. 6 weeks after the 36 older adults tested quit the training, most of the health benefits remained. (They' got funding to do another test with 100 people.)

    It's not yet known how it works: How strengthening breathing muscles ends up lowering blood pressure. A guess they have is that it causes cell lining blood vessels to provide more nitric oxide, causing them to relax.

    It also strengthens diaphragm muscles.

    IMST stands for High-Resistance Inspiratory Muscle Strength Training.
     

  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 27,2021
  • Biohackers aim at producing $7 insulin, compared with $300 insulin from Big Pharma

    Reportedly, insulin costs $1.50 to $5 per vial to make, but is sold for around $300. Biohackers are working on reverse engineering insulin to produce a recipe they will make public, and say they will sell vials for $7.

    Three large companies own 90% of the insulin in the world. Novo Nordisk, Lilly, and Sanofi. Millions of people need insulin, and some can't afford what they need.

    The FDA wants to open the market for insulin, according to some, and therefore they will approve the molecules created by the 'biohackers' [Open Insulin project]. Once they complete their work, they will make the recipe public so community labs around the world can produce it locally.

    'There was a time for being angry,' said one of the Open Insulin workers, 'It's not anger anymore. It's just determination.'


  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 14,2021
  • Pakistani town HIV outbreak among children

    As it it a poor, rural town where the parents work every day from the early morning, it is proving difficult to administer medicine to the young children in Rato Daro (in Sindh) who may require it for life.

    The outbreak is believed to stem from one doctor who was using unclean needles a couple of years ago. Although he was punished in the legal system, many say he was scapegoated and the responsibility lies with the government for providing good medical equipment.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 12,2021
  • FDA advisors are resigning because of Biogen's Alzheimer's drug approval

    The drug was approved, but when supporters were interviewed they couldn't say anything more compelling than that they were receiving the news positively because people suffered from Alzheimer's, without being able to say anything in favor of the drug itself.

    The drug came out a while back, and was not approved upon review last year (because no benefits were substantially proven, the FDA advisory board voted 10 against, 1 uncertain, 0 in favor), and since then nothing has changed, but the FDA decided to approve it now.

    It is rare for this type of decision to be overturned, and usually when it does happen, it's after a vote that is closer than the Biogen drug was.

    There are millions of potential consumers for the drug, and Biogen has priced it at $56,000 per year.

    Commenters said that after the third resignation, there might be some real attention on what's going on here.


    3 prestigious FDA advisors who quit:


     

Show More

Show Less

  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • Wharton finance professor sounds the alarm on soaring U.S. debt - YouTube
    Adding $1t every 100 days.
    Interest on the U.S. debt is really driving the growth at this point, says Maya MacGuineas - YouTube
    Steady march upward relative to the economy. Slows economic growth. Two parties can't compromise or work on the things they should be working on. Both say 'Not our problem at the moment.' Difficult to see how it connects to anyone's daily life.
    US public debt will be 100% of GDP in 2024?
    Worse because we wait to fix them. The changes are more difficult than if they had been done earlier.
    Where could the US cut spending? Defense? ‘Investing’? Health Care and Retirement (no candidate wants to talk about cutting Social Security)?
    Soon tax cuts will expire. Both parties want some amount of tax cuts extended, which will make the numbers even larger.
    Conversation might start the day after the election.
    Taxes will have to go up.

    The winner-take-all economics of the 21st Century. Every business we look at, you're gonna see one or two companies dominating. Advertising 20 or 30 years ago, 2 or 3% was a big share of the market. Today, 2 companies have most of the 60% of advertising which is done online. Aswath Damodaran

    At this moment, Jensen Huang is considered CEO of the greatest business ever.

    Apple In Talks to Build Google's AI Into iPhones - YouTube
    10 years of duopoly, why allow things to change? They made their search agreement in 2000. Google needed Apple more than vice versa since then, but now with an AI agreement Apple will need Google.
    Apple will leverage Google's Gemeni. Google's AI has looked bad, but not as unstable and unpredictable and new as OpenAI.
    This might mean Apple isn't as far along with its own AI as some thought. Why does it need Google?
    If Apple went with Microsoft or another company rather than Google, that would put them at odds with Google. Apple is more afraid of Google. Google does more things that can compete with Apple, and can take marketshare if they want to.
    Users don't care if Apple was first to anything. They care if the product works well.
    Apple needs AI tech, some say.
    This will be the biggest AI contract maybe, so Google will be ‘winning AI.’

    Homebuilder sentiment turns positive for the first time since July - YouTube
    People starting to get used to this 7% rate, if they can afford it.

    Apple is out of the low-margin, high competition industry of EVs.

    Indian as an EM has more transparency in the data than others. Combination of transparency in reporting and of fundamentals.

    5% Fed funds rate 'not restrictive' at this point, says Richard Bernstein's Michael Contopoulos - YouTube
    Home prices are going back up.
    Starting to talk about a hike.

    How Nintendo Avoided Massive Layoffs - YouTube
    He argues against ‘corporate America’ (different from capitalism). CEO took a 50% paycut. Sometimes the owner of small businesses take no income because they had to make payroll, that's a normal thing in small business. If you lay off people to keep making profits every period, no one wants to work for you, because you're not a leader.

    Bitcoin. Today asset class (crypto) is $2.5t, but if 3% of all assets end up in crypto, it will be $6t asset class.
    The tokenization of a lot of commercial assets. Storing digital assets or property. Tokenized economy could be $20t by 2030, which would be 10% of all the tradfi assets today.
    Halving probably priced in. Most of current move is the credibility lent by institutions and the allocation.
    ‘Bitcoin is the gold of the crypto market, Eth is the oil’.
    ‘Most of capital markets will be tokenized. Most of the record keeping, settlement payment, reconciliaiton, will be on blockchain, and the oft talked about instantaneous transfer of ownership will be instantaneous.’ Civil asset forfeiture, anyone? Freezing of bank accounts of labelled-by-government-‘terrorism’-supporting citizens/ 2-years-later proven-in-court law-abiding protesters', anyone?
    #humanrights

    Ali will probably be profitable for a while but will eventually be out-competed.

    Analyzing Economies: USA, China, Japan, Russia, India, Korea, & More - YouTube
    China, many places will block its stuff (like EVs) (not just through tariffs but actually just block). The countries (India) who want cheap Chinese stuff don't have a lot of money.

    China graduation level currently low.

    Japan's low fertility rate (bottomed out about same as Europe) is higher than anywhere else in eastern Asia.

    Japan permitting is relatively easy for making chips and other things. It took only 1.5 years to get up and running.

    IBM, which doesn't even know how to make chips, is making a chip in Japan now.

    Japan and Korea are now friends. Papered over historical things, small reparations, no truth and reconciliation. Young people like Japan, like Korea.

    Koreans work a lot, have very few kids. Korea reportedly has gender problems. Korea has a lot of debt. Koreans like to consume. Koreans might pump up immigration (Vietnamese).

    Taiwan is centered around small businesses, like Germany. Taiwan remains rich and poor. TSMC is not typical, but might be a bellweather.

    Vietnam copies China pretty well. Samsung phones are made there. Vietname is cheaper, less regulations sometimes than China (for Chinese companies), less ‘under the watchful eye’. Needs bigger businesses, which the government fears. Needs more college education.

    India incredible poverty was ended by rapid growth, massive transfers (to make people not so rural which was the problem). Get people food, get people houses. They got food and water. Now they're doing trains etc. Girls are still not going to school. Factory workers are all women.

    Pakistan is a mess. Poor but not fast growing, doesn't invest, consumes whatever it gets, borrows from IMF and defaults. Has nukes and tariffs. Low income. Military coups, power struggles, instable, two main provinces in constant revolt basically. High crime. Fertility high. Nazis. Trying not to be dragged into China alliance and China's conflicts globally. Pakistan started out richer. Focus a lot on competing (militariily) with India.

    Philippines leadership less wild. Less corrupt. Because recent leaders left.

    Aus is a masterclass in creating a nice society based on mining (bauxite and coal), supplimented by high end services, high minimum wage. Doing better than Canada, has institutions that we could copy, and are copying (Biden copied income based repayment of student loans). But international demand controls their economy, at risk of China reducing purchases.

    Russia is on a wartime footing, war economy. Everything shifting to war economy. Germany selling through third countries to Russia. China is buying Russian oil and selling Russia its stuff, but this is a business relationship. If price of oil goes down, China will drive a hard bargain. India buys military parts from Russia. Likes that Russia can protect them militarily from China.
    Interest rates and inflation high.
    Russia still import dependent.
    Russia's reserves running out, will run out this or next year. US no longer backing Ukraine like it was. Europeans are backing Ukraine. France, Poland (4% of GDP for military spending, drones).

    Poland is same size as Ukraine, but better tech.

    AI. Routine jobs will be out. Decision-making not, maybe.

    There will always be full employment because of relative costs. Erik Torenberg. Famous CEO is a good typist but hires a well-paid typist. They'll get paid very well to do these little tasks, because there'll be so much wealth. He thinks people will still be doing tasks even if AI does it better.
    AI could be worse. It could be malevolent.
    People already prefer AI doctor's bedside manner. AI girlfriends are already popular.

    The year of AI efficiency layoffs. Like 90s with internet.

    Routing the right task to the right model, which will be smaller than the total everything models used on ChatGPT right now. Small models on the device even.

    It's not even ‘liquidity,’ it's juts ‘money printing’, said Lynette Zang
    Inflation. It's just not the US dollar going away, it's the entire system, which has to reset into the new system.
    The banks are all insolvent right now, she said. All banks, because they're based on debt. Interest rates have pushed down market valuations of all that debt. Derivative bets against those debts. Debt at high levels. Fine unless forced to liquidate.
    Mnuchin came in and bought NYBC with private money.
    All this means everything, houses, clothes, can be tokenized and put on your phone.
    Risk transfer from many to the few, maintaining the system will be too expensive, market will crash. From Debt to Hyperinflation: More Banks to Collapse As System Implodes, 'They Need a Crisis' – Zang - YouTube

    2% inflation, people don't notice it. Not that the price stays the same, but that the public doesn't change its behaviour. But if it happens quickly, then they notice and they don't trust.

    After 70 years: German national team takes off adidas, puts on Nike | DW News - YouTube

    Microsoft did another aquahire of a whole AI team. Speculation that they have so much difficulty doing anything because of their monopoly they don't bother to buy the asset but rather just hire the people.
    Is this a new way to go around antitrust? Just buy a team or licence something.

    Large-scale bitcoin miners are competing head on with AI companies for power: Marathon Digital CEO - YouTube
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 15,2024
  • If you could teleport gold from Tokyo to NY in a couple minutes, people would like it.
    #Crypto
    It's not digital currency. It's digital property. It's capital preservation for everyone.

    Michael Saylor: Bitcoin, Inflation, and the Future of Money | Lex Fridman Podcast #276 - YouTube #Saylor
    Inflation CPI understates the suffering inflicted upon the working class and on companies by the political class. It's a massive shift of wealth from working class to propertied class. Shift of power from freemarket to the centrally governed or controlled market, from people to government. Saylor
    In an environment where you're infating the money supply and keeping assets constant, assets will appreciate in proportion to money supply, and the scarce desireable quality will determine value of inflation. Money supply expands 7% per year on average. Many houses have gone up in price more than 300x in 100 years, or around 6.5% per year. You're sucking 6% of the energy of the fluid that the economy is using to function. Currency moves economic energy around.
    All government policy is inflamatory and inflationary. Any policy. It interferes with free market and prevents some rational actor from doing it in a cheaper, more efficient way.
    Wars (and other policies) are never paid for with taxes. It's too transparent. If people understood the true cost, you will lose 95% of everything, you might reconsider a policy and vote for a politician. A lack of humility. People overestimate what they can accomplish. Experience causes you to reevaluate that. Our mistakes are our good ideas that I enthusiastically pursued, to the detriment of my great ideas that required 150% of my attention to propser. People pursue to many good ideas. There's a limit to what you can accomplish. Everyone underestimates the challenges of implementing, overestimate the benefits of the pursuit. Overexuberance. As the exuberance of the government expands, so must the currency supply.
    Inflation is completely misunderstood. Inflation is a vector tracking price change in every good and service.
    You can't blame them, because economists don't even understand economics. If they did, they would measure every price of housing, the full array of foods and the full array of assets, and they'd publish this every month.
    The primary problem is ‘The government will try to do good.’ It will do more harm than good. They will try to pay for it by expanding the monetary supply. They won't realize this. They'll collapse their own currencies, and mismeasure how badly they're doing that. They'll say the dollar lost 95% over 100 years. Actually it lost 99.7% over 80 years. They'll overestimage their budget and means to pay for it. They're oblivious to the damage they do to civilization. The mental model they're taught, it's Ok we can print lots of money, is defective. ... Other countries lost 99.9% or all (currency failed).
    If house prices are going up 20% per year and I say this is great for the American public because most people are home owners, I'm misrepresenting it because it's really a negative.
    Look at the ship next to us. What if I told you your ship leaked 2% every year. It's rotting 2% per year.

    MIT costs hundreds of years of many families earnings. Inefficient. The seats are uncomfortable, too. Now we have the same teachers you watch on your chair at home. You need PHDs. A PHD is $1m. There's 10m in the world. How many people COULD get a PHD if it were affordable?
    If you try to solve this by throwing money at it, you can throw a trillion dollars. $10t, you still don't get there. Harvard can't educate that many.
    Education can be infinite and for everyone.

    Open, permissionless, not censorable. Non-sovereign bearer instrument. Property. Irregardless of anyone else or government. Twitter stock will never be property in China. It will never be trusted. Property is low-frequency money. If you wanna hold it for a decade, maybe you buy a house, maybe in a decade you sell the house and buy the property again.
    What makes bitcoin ethical (to endorse) is no person can change it (well, but they can if they have influence or power). No one can do what they could if it were a security, print 1000 more copies tomorrow.
    Bitcoin is the first time we created a digital property. Everything else is securities. Sending money digitally is an IOU.
    An armed society is a polite society. If you disagree, you can always withdraw your resources from it.
    You can promote a property to the extent that you don't control it, ethically. There's an interest still, but that's different from a conflict of interest.

    8b people with mobile phones serviced by 100m companies doing billions of transactions per hour. The companies are settlings on the base level, and the companies are dealing with the consumers on proprietary layers like layer 3, and on occasion people are shuffling assets on layer 2 (moving $50 or something).

    You can't trade with a company in Nigeria. No amount of money or time. You get shut down at the banking level (you can't link a bank there with a bank in the US). At the credit card level (because they don't have the credit cards so they won't clear). At the compliance/FCP level your system is from a different political jurisdiction and it can't interface with theirs. You can do it with crypto, fast, cheap, with anyone.

    Bitcoin's a universal trust protocol. So is English. No one's payment system works everywhere. US payment systems in Russia? But bitcoin also can't be done easily in these places.

    No security can be a currency for the internet. Only a property can be.

    If bitcoin goes up, because of how much he owns, Saylor could become the wealthiest person.

    The Canadian trucker protest educated millions of people and made them start questioning their property rights and their banks. War in Ukraine was the second shock, Russian sanctions. Hyperinflation in the rest of the world a fouth shock and persistent inflation in the US a fifth.

    Bitcoin's volatility attracts all the attention, massive gains and losses, which sucks money into it. Also, it results in massive gains for traders, and that attracts capital.

    Temu spent $1.7b in 2023 to advertise and got, in a year or two, 161m users, nearing what Amazon has. It might spend $3b in 2024 on Facebook, Insta, Tiktok, Suprebowl. Temu replicates what Ali did. In 2023 sold products at a loss of about $7 per order. But others say it isn't really losing money.
    Temu connects factories with customers, cutting the middle man.
    Temu gamifies shopping with games on the app to win prizes. They have countdown timers running on each product to show when a sale ends.
    Temu shows that consumers are willing to wait (not fast shipping) as long as the price is cheap.
    Morgan Stanley reported they think their growth is cresting.
    The quality is low. Safety is a question.
    There is a data risk.

    China considering liberalizing household registration program. Currently migrant workers in cities can't access any social benefits because their household is registered back in their village. If they change this, they can buy apartments etc in the city.

    China is buying ETFs, stimulating their market similar to US did.

    If China changes just a smidge in the right thing, they'll attract tons of foreign investment.

    China government has the money to spend.

    China continues to clash with Philippines fishing boats etc. Some concern it could go too far.

    There are hundreds of millions invested in Bytedance out of the US, which represents billions in value.

    This week lots more headlines on China, not negative, some modestly positive.

    China growth more in lower-tier cities. Tier 1 and 2 are 20 or 30% of economy, 6 or 7% of population.

    China the companies that have outperformed have been doing outside markets. Growing rapidly overseas markets. Appliances and durable goods benefit from this trend, maybe.

    Some China sectors in bull market of 20% off low. Materials, renewables, smaller cap tech.

    Miniso CFO discusses company's plans to add about 1,000 stores a year over the next 5 years - YouTube
    #Retail #China

    In some countries (Nigeria currency) it's ‘staggering how much wealth was preserved.’ 'Until you get countries that run more credible fiscal policies, people are gonna wanna buy that story, and it's a story that's spreading.'
    The monetary policy for this ecosystem was set in code by Satoshi whitepaper.

    Chinese space company founders are coming in significant part from Finance (like America). Samo thinks maybe they're coping it from America, but that they don't have an Elon-tier person so it won't happen. But even if they did it would be, internationally, so controlled, similar to exporting nuclear reactors, where you better be on good terms from US or a similar Western country if you want to buy these instead of making them yourself.

    Jack Ma may have been an example of the highwater mark of how much impact on Chinese society can a purely commercial or technocratic actor that's not aligned with the CCP have. The ceiling is pretty low. Not even critiquing their policy.

    China is not like Singapore, which will use a sovereign wealth fund that will try to develop a totally new product, a novel solution to a problem. (Singapore working on insect protein, which is kind of what you need for a tiny city state to feed its population.) When China says they're going to invest in AI, it probably means close the AI gap by copying the US. What makes the individual threatening to the CCP is their popularity. If they offer something Chinese people want or like, they'll be liked too much.

    Might be a spot ETF for bitcoin in HK, and there's a lot of interest.
    To do this, you need a bunch of financial institutions working together. The stock exchange, regulated asset managers who can manage the product, licenced brokers called participating brokers, and depository services who support the running of the fund. In HK also asset custodians in cash and crypto sides. And good quality market makers to support a product after it starts trading on an exchange.
    They've seen how the US did it and can use that roadmap.
    The HK might have an advantage over the US product because you can actually pull Bitcoin out from the funds.
    The HK fees have to compete so be as low as what they US ones were set at.
    They can't launch too fast because they think most important is to have a product people like, a quality product.

    Eth etf race. US hasn't approved any product yet, so there's a more global race for that. Being first to market is critical for players investing in that space.

    China, reportedly the young are really spending, and it's their income that is limiting their spending.

    S&P large cap around 15x the mag 7. While the Russel2000, looking at the profitable companies, around 12x. ... When rates cut there will be multiple expansion plus risk appetite growing, perhaps. Tom Lee

    ‘The fallacy of a 2% inflation target by the Fed’ - Bookvar
    Because of technology, 'prices usually fall. Tech prices are keeping a lid on goods prices, and that's 0, then something else has to rise by 4% to get to the 2. So J Powell is actually rerouting for higher other prices to offset that natural decline in prices from technology, and that makes no sense.'
    The reason why there’s a 2% inflation target is not for the best thing for the economy. ‘If the inflation is at 2, ideally we would have a Fed funds rate of maybe 4, and if we go into recessoin we’ll have 400 basis points to cut in a downturn.' ‘It’s right for their own policy.'
    But they do also think 2% is good for the economy. It greases the wheels of the economy. You want a steady modest rise in inflation so people go out and spend. ... But there are a lot of people who would say the right level of inflation is 0.'

    Restaurants don't have a lot of productivity levels to raise to offset higher wages. You only have one and that's to raise your menu prices.

    VISA sees everything, every type of consumer. If the consumer is trading away from Macdonalds and going to Taco Bell, VISA sees the spend.
    They see basically no weakness anywhere on last call.

    There's also a shift in how people spend and pay. They pay with cards and don't even carry cash. They buy less for stuff around the house and go out to eat more.

    BofA says there are still excess savings. The lowest savings accounts still have a few thousand in there. They have 4x than what they had saved pre-covid.

    Cruise lines said they've seen no slowing in spending. Home restoration supplies are a little soft, because they've been booming for several years and that's already done.

    Fed might have been suprised by QT not having an impact. Then the AI boom in 2023 and earnings recovery animal spirits. Fed might have been thinking they were sailing into a deflated direction but AI boomed, and tech companies buying from each other meant high revenues.

    Nvidia's biggest customers today are trying to be its competitors. They're all trying to make their own chips.

    When a stock goes vertical (on good news or whatever) you're pulling forward a lot of future returns. It matters what you pay. A stock parabolic move can pull earnings forward 25 years.

    There's a pro-shareholder thing going on in hottest stock market Japan and hottest EM India. Whether they're actually doing this for the stock market not sure. Whether they're looking at US and saying Hey maybe there's something there not sure.

    China's middle class, over the next 5-10 years, will go from 400m to 800m (add the size of US population). Chinese love to travel to Japan, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, India. Middle class stories. Chinese travellers sprinkled $250b around the world in 2019. Shopping luxury, eat out, experience things. The more they make the more they wanna buy.

    China, even if grows 3% per year for 10 years, in terms of dollars that's still a lot of dollars.

    Apple needs another China, but the whole (asia) region will be that. But they have to compete against $10 Chinese phones.

    Netflix et all used to be like How do we get these movies to open big in China? Now it's all India.

    India printed an 8.4% GDP number for Q4.

    Tesla, multiple is still so fat. No margin of safety when fundamentals turned to the downside. Has to reach a bottoming in sales numbers for dip buyers to return, maybe. Hybrids are so hot, and that wasn't assumed years ago, they thought it was EV or not. The hybrid bridge. Toyota was in it, no one else.


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 11,2024


  •  













  • Private credit bubble. Chairman of UBS.
    PIKs. We prefer less transparency, we want them to lie to us. Huge forward risk. Things are not being priced appropriately.

    Streaming isn't profitable, people are saying.

    Alibaba to Invest in China AI Firm MiniMax at $2.5 Billion Valuation - YouTube
    Government regulator website featured(endorsed) Eddy Woo. Endorsing in what Alibaba seems to be doing (for now), which is investing in one of Xi's key initiatives, AI and cutting edge scientific innovation.

    China looking to lift all foreign restrictions in manufacturing sector, they said, it's reported.

    Investors Beware: US farmland to see historic price crash, amid soaring global ag productivity - YouTube
    US paying much more for machinery than rest of wrld. EPA is part.
    #China

    Wall Street investment funds lose billions on Evergrande bonds gamble - YouTube
    People outside China don't understand China. These things (property speculation gaming, Evergrande failure) aren't problems, they're solutions.
    China wants 100s of m to move to cities.

    We can't learn very much from China other than that the system/structure is very different, they're starting from a very different place. They can just build roads and infrastructure, but that can't be done in the West because you can't just kick people out of their homes. The West prefers our structure, so the things achieved in China can't even be considered in the West (to be done in the same way as China). Clifford Coonan

    China's government doesn't have disputes. It just gets rid of oppositions.

    Live: How China plans to resuscitate its economy | DW News - YouTube

    You can't subsidize EVs or solar panels in Germany to the extent of China, where the company's DNA has the state in it. Theoretically the subsidies on Chinese imports to Germany ‘should be massive’ to protect an industry that will otherwise disappear, like Nokia, whose tech was absorbed and more cheaply produced and sold to into the market. Germany used to have solar panel companies but China subsidized theirs and they exported to Germany. Germany didn't combat this with subsidies/tariffs, and now German solar panel companies sell Chinese panels.

    On the other side of things, China could theoretically grow in lots of areas but it's limited by the structure of control by the Party. Internet, journalism, communicaitons, privatization (insurance), tech companies. All are part of the broader picture of economic well-being. The West can do these things. The internet in China is just buying and selling goods.

    And the Party can't really reform. It can't make a lot of these reforms. They would be fundamental reforms. It would require levels of freedom that it cannot tolerate.

    Cash for clunkers policy in China. They buy your old car or home appliances, and want you to buy a new one. In the past people would just save the money to pay for education etc. Now the money goes straight to their phones and they have to spend it. (Smallish effect.)

    China big focus on exports. State subsidies, loans for EVs, probably will be for chips.

    China has no green party, so climate change is not an issue in that way.

    China, because lockdown was so severe, is perhaps still reeling from that. Could this mean growth for another year just from continued unfreezing (they did 5% last year in whatever part because of this)?

    China has deflation. You won't buy a big ticket item if you think price will go down.

    Making difficult decisions to protect national brands, not shortterm sales.

    China property markets represents savings for a lot of Chinese. Is destruction of these savings a tacit goal?

    A porsche, a lakehouse, first class.

    China will export components, parts of manufacture, in their move to circumvent tarifs and sanctions in export, relocating manufacture to other places.

    2017 China started cracking down on unsustainable growth in banks. Depositors have become cautious in investing in high-risk products. Leverage.
    State owned banks lend to domestic businesses. State funded.
    Insuring project completion. Banks will be selective in property development. Safeguard asset quality. Not just affordability but confidence the projects will be delivered on time.

    China mainland stocks. Fundamental investing is not quite working because there's a lot of structural outflow. Policy and regulatory uncertainty, people are just giving up. Low return on effort. But the reset might be largely done.
    Look for companies that can help themselves, reinvent themselves, improve operating efficiency, find new markets, be winners of industry consolidation.
    China macro is quite unpredictable.

    Musk Vs OpenAI. If people can form a company as a nonprofit (lower tax) and then make it public and make profits, why wouldn't everyone do this?
    Microsoft bought 49% (estimated Microsoft invested $10b in OpenAI). Microsoft has gone up $63b since OpenAI, putting Microsoft at $3t, the largest company in the world now.
    It appears OpenAI started opensource, with the stated concern that one company (then Google but now Microsoft appears the same thing) would get all the benefits of AI. Elon was a big investor, the biggest investor, on tihs goal. They got other investors, on the idea it was opensource and would benefit everyone. Then it was closed. (Did they also remove all the opensource people?) Then they raised money on the idea of profits and employees sold a couple billion of stock into their pockets. If it had been opensource, Microsoft could have just used the models for free and not had to pay OpenAI.
    There's also consideration Altman may have used the openAI name to do other deals not for OpenAI which might be in the region of taking the corporation's opportunities. (Alman may be getting corporate opportunities as a form of compensation when perhaps he should just be getting compensation in the corporation and the corporation should own all its opportunities. He can monetize the ecosystem. He ‘famously’ doesn't get compensated at OpenAI directly.)
    Musk put in the first $40m, most of the money. Elon would own half the company if it had been initially private, maybe. So maybe you could give him 20% to make him whole (but Elon doesn't want money it seems)?

    You would think it was more valuable in 2020, nonsovereign, decentralized, the fundamentals seem good but the product wasn't valued. ... 98% doesn't understand it, it's a bit too complicated, they're afraid of it. Saylor bought Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google. ... Just because you don't understand it doesn't mean it's not true. ... Then, in 2020, 20-somethings know they should buy Amazon, every Uber driver knows that. Get off the mobile wave, get on the crypto wave and think that through. It wasn't without risk but the alternative was throw in the towel pretty much.

    Companies forget what it means to make great products.

    Rebecca Patterson says China is biggest factor driving gold prices higher - YouTube
    From 2k to 2200. China government has been buying reserves 16 months straight, not expected to stop. Chinese people putting money in gold because where else?
    Gold's not a story until it is.
    I haven't seen gold in economics news for months, not even one headline.

    The Downfall Of Amazon Has Started - YouTube
    New fees (which theoretically should have been there before but Amazon bore them itself to win over sellers). Fees for carrying low inventory (so Amazon can't easily store it everywhere and deliver it in a day like they want to to maintain their value proposition of fast delivery). Fees for returns if a product gets a lot of returns. Cost subsidy. (This reminds me of what we might expect from Uber at some point, because other than removing number-of-cars limits for cities, it's basically taxis, which was already a long-settled cost/profit system.
    This particularly affects low-margin sellers.
    Anectodally, some shipment costs rise from $10 to $100. 20-30% cost increases.
    These fees are to use Amazon's own shipping, Amazon Prime. Sellers can use FDM if they want, and this is expensive.
    Twitter spoke up, then reddit, then MSM.
    FTC now probing Amazon. Chain Lina Khan has been writing about the Amazon ‘antitrust paradox’ since college. Now there are public complaints, whereas before going after Amazon would have provoked large criticism (from market entrants not from established businesses which were put out of business by Amazon, Walmart, etc).
    All of Amaon's profit since 2017, presumably, is from AWS, Carlson said. Amazon has actually been losing money on retail for years.
    Amazon still offers customers their (?artificially) cheap shipping, fast shipping, trust (this is under question), consistency. Amazon customers are considered wealthier than average, and sticky, not likely to switch to a third party to save money.

    For regional banks, once they reach $100b, they get extra regulations without the benefits of scale. Marketing, technology, regulating ability to spread across banking market. More mergers? Even if smaller banks have billions on the books and appear safe, compared with what JPM has, just scale makes them look less secure.

    It's been 30 years since law allowed interstate banking in the US. Diversification.

    Big Tech has been deteriorating in relative standing for 6, 8 months.

    China is world leader in EVs, low-cost photovoltaics, wind turbines, fast rail, 5G.
    A lot of these are global directional trends. Low cost supplier to core infrastructure.
    Europe and US protectionist fighting against import of Chinese EVs, but rest of the world wants them bad. ... American business is not in line with American politics. American business people applaud Chinese when they visit.
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 05,2024
  • HR should be an outside lawyer versed in employment law who can set up the company nicely so there isn't problems. Not a comisar in the company who knows and acts the gatekeeps of secrets, this person made this much, this person did this with this ...
    Coworkers should never know intimate details of another.
    HR should be administrative. But that can be software now.

    Google vs. Google: The internal struggle holding back its AI - YouTube
    This is how people are talking about it (people in the investing world). They think the problem is that Google is a liberal echo-chamber where people use their product as a tool to influence the world, at the expense of the utility of the tool. The problem isn't that Google can't, it's that it doesn't want to. (That it could easily fix the issues that produced black George Washington but because of the people and culture inside the corporate building they won't.) The employees are happy with how things are.
    Search is considered threatened by AI ‘search’, and is considered the best (most profitable, most moated) business in history. 20 years of it or something. I don't think Google search will fail, as search is about giving answers, not just information, not just words. And they know how to give answers and monetize use through the only large-scale acceptable monetization, ads and free use.

    Government just giving (stimulus checks) money to people suspected won't work, because people will just save the money (whether because of lack of confidence or just because Chinese culturally save money), not like USA.
    Confidence is really low, expectations the leadership is going to change, a rollback of regulations and pairing with the West not expected, and confidence is required for economy rebounding, perhaps. Even if government does this, it would still take a long time to convince them, because government has lost their confidence. The overall direction used to look good even when there were bumps in the road, and maybe that's not there now.

    Redistributing resources means redistributing authority. Giving money now to consumers means redistributing power.
    Changing the tax structure means changing the central/local government relationship. The levers to bend the local governments to their will.
    They control the pillars of the economy, which sectors.
    They're always fearful of major uprising in big cities. Control city populations. Never have visible inequality. Harsh policy to drive migrants out of the edges of the city.

    The leaders are failed reformers, not reluctant reformers. That makes a difference.

    They don't collect much tax on individual incomes (6% of their tax base, 1% of GDP), nor domestic consumption.
    They collect their tax mostly on investment-led growth model: value-added tax, enterprise income tax.
    They only use SOEs to stimulate the economy. Performance of SOEs should become worse. They need private sector power from now on.
    Fiscal revenue as a part of GDP is 14%. Declined steadily since 2015.
    Their fiscal constraints are more binding than observers think.
    A transitioning economy would require a different tax base, tax system. IMF raises this issue every year with China. They've said yeah we agree, for years, but last session they said they had a just-fine tax system.
    Give the market a decisive role in the economy?

    'Have we been gullible?' - Antidepressants taken by 'MILLIONS' of Brits go under the microscope - YouTube

    APPL down 3%, 10% this year, despite launching a new laptop ‘the best for AI’ which just has improvements to regular existing services. New $1.6b Europe fine. This week Europe regulation against Big Tech. Is APPL handing over the torch (to Microsoft, Nvidia?) It's a huge part of the market, of 401ks, etc.

    China's 5% GDP target is 'really ambitious,' economist says - YouTube
    Contractionary fiscal policy mostly. Require a very large infrastructure project (size of Three Gorge Dam).
    They might set a higher deficit budget.
    10 elements: Modernize supply chains, domestic brands, produce that supply chain. Higher quality development. Really encourage domestic consumption (consumer sentiment is not high).
    China sets 2024 economic targets: Here's what to know - YouTube
    Shift from mass production to high quality products, national security, social equality. A noted shift. A focus on communism.

    It's more profitable for companies to cooperate on prices than compete, says Columbia's Tim Wu - YouTube
    The most obviously anti-competitive deals are not gonna get through. The ones where they combine obvious competitors with the excuse that they're trying to take on other companies.
    The airline merger was the first that's been blocked in history, a such a minor pairing compared with ones they've allowed in the past. 10 years ago you could get any deal by saying we're coming together because we need to fight Walmart or Amazon. The industry was allowed to consolidate. We just saw airlines merge recently and not much good happening for consumers.
    There are 7 companies. Then 6 and 7 want to combine to compete with 1 and 2. They were allowed. Once there are only 3 or 4 companies, they see it's easier to cooperate on prices than to compete. Mobile, airlines. They didn't compete. T-mobile 10 years ago said they were never gonna survive, and now they're the most successful company.
    How many companies need to be in each sector to ensure competition? And how big can any one be allowed as a percentage of total sector share, before it makes it impossible for smaller ones to compete?

    Investors Beware: China's factories are moving. But not to Mexico or Vietnam. - YouTube
    Inland smaller cities.
    Much of Mexico manufacturing is China too.

    Weighing down the taxpayer: Why weight loss drugs could cost taxpayers over $1 trillion per year - YouTube
    Math.
    44m people at $15k each, $1t gross, minus savings of $200b. $800b per year, equivalent of entire medicare program.
    IP theft? ... As public payers paying that much, you do have leverage, and you should be able to use that leverage in the marketplace. It could get to the point it represents a direct transfer from US taxpayers to shareholders of these companies. There is an opportunity here (they have 35% versus need-to-have-10% profit) to come to a more reasonable price for the taxpayer without discouraging innovation. We're moving toward a place, already, where we're going to blow a giant hole in the budget. But that's not the way free markets work, that's the way central planning works. Negotiating a ‘fair’ price. That fair word again. But doesn't that work both ways? The company might be developing and pricing based on the expectation of advantage in dealing with nationwide public purchase.

    Lots of cryptcoins are way up.
    BONK coin. $15b in volume in 24 hours.
    Like last time people will buy at the top these meme coins. But this time people know, everyone's in on it, but they want to play anyway. It's a game.
    Coinbase and Robinhood are up.


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 01,2024
  • Japan Pulls Off an Early Chip Victory - YouTube
    TSMC.

    Reddit's 'Wild West' reputation isn't something that advertisers want: New York Times’ Jim Stewart - YouTube

    It is a feat if you can eek out a tiny tiny profit now.

    US government is funded not by taxes, but by treasury bonds, which are purchased by the Fed, which are purchased with printed money, which is backed by the treasury bonds themselves. - Bukele
    ‘Americans pay high taxes only to uphold the illusion that you are funding the government that you are not.’ ‘Paper backed with paper, a bubble.’
    It will entail a reengineering of the government top to bottom, Bukele said, not just the result of an election.
    ‘Put up the fight, because in the end it will be worht it.’

    Concerning reports over resources at Canadian food banks - YouTube

    The reason Canadian banks are down the last two years is because they haven't grown earnings: Wessel - YouTube

    Alphabet has an attractive valuation, but is a 'show me' stock, says BakerAvenue's King Lip - YouTube
    Other headlines about how Google could do what Meta did a year ago, when it looked like the company was ‘done’ but Zuck fired tons of people, stopped focussing on the metaverse, steered the company back towards making money. But peope say Google could but probably won't do this. We can notice here that Meta has just one person who feels completely entitled to do what he wants with his company. Google had 2 but they were (people assume) influenced to leave while government-friendly CEOs were put in place and a ‘woke’ culture prevailed over the citizens. This is a reaction to Google's AI fail making black George Washingtons etc. ... People say Google has the tech, it started a lot of the tech years ago, which smaller newer companies made public, or versions of it, and are profiting. But Google won't make their tech public. Perhaps because it's dangerous? perhaps because they've played it out and they know it's not much more than hype? Perhaps becaues it's government technology basically and they can't share it?
    Google Gemini AI is anti-white - and so is Google search - YouTube

    Microsoft now has a larger market cap than Apple.
    Also now, people are saying the NASDAQ can go up without the participation of Apple. That had been debated before. Dispell. 2% revenue growth, 7% earnings growth, for past few years, or something.

    Is capital now a burden? $10-20t excess capital that has no use? Just floating around searching for a use. Creating opportunities solely to put that money to work?
    Disaster capitalism - How financial markets benefit from the climate problem | DW Documentary - YouTube


  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024

  • Broadly, inflation is still going down. But housing is up, headline at 3.1% instead of expected 2%.

    WM CEO James Fish: We always raise prices because there is always some type of inflation - YouTube

    Credit squeeze 2024. Less cash in banks becaues it's in money market funds, and isn't available for loans. Savings from pandemic government measures are spent. Auto, credit card loans at 20%, sapping savings.

    How much debt expense US has, and might start to think longer term interest rates should go up. - Gundlach

    Economy is more vulnerable under rising rate than falling rate regime. Under a falling regime, companies in trouble might have to pay more on a spread basis, they're paying lower interest rates. They can refinance and take money out and reduce their interest expense, which prevents defaults and supports risk assets.
    Rising rates, maybe those companies will have to default.

    The 2-year is telling us we'll get 100bps of cuts within 2 years. Gundlach

    MSCI Cuts Swath of Chinese Stocks From Indexes as Market Slumps - YouTube

    Nvidia briefly overtakes Alphabet as third-largest company by market cap - YouTube

    Japan Slips Into Recession, Clouding Central Bank Rate Path - YouTube

    “$600 Million” - Jeff Bezos Strategic Move to Miami - YouTube
    Seattle to Miami. Will save from Washington States's new capital gains tax.

    Money is moving into the same sectors (tech). 25% last quarter. Concentrated.

    Misery Index (has been worse 80% of time since 70s)
    ppi vs cpi (have a lot of components, and have to look at the trajectory of each of those components)
    household net worth is in the 96th percentile
    cost of capital (not higher than 2009 or 2012) (business consideration)
    What will the terminal rate be, rather than when Fed will cut. When their costs will come in for longterm R&D.
    What we're hearing from earnings, and what the CEOs are saying (they're slowing down in labor practices). How to use AI and supply chains (haven't been that bad considering shipping prices).

    Hardest year to have a macro outlook - Drukenmiller. Not the hardest, always difficult - E Burton

    How Ghost Kitchens Went From $1 Trillion Hype To A Struggling Business Model - YouTube

    Lithium prices plummet on slowing EV demand - YouTube

    Canada giving Ukraine over 800 drones worth $95 million | Power & Politics - YouTube
    Made in Canada.
    (Not new money. Part of $500m Trudeau said last year. Total amount to Ukraine like 2.4b.)

    Company behind Stanley tumblers faces lawsuits over lead - YouTube






  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024


  • When Nebula sells, all the creators then get a payout.

    China itself is now looking at offshoring factories outside of China.

    China’s Consumer Prices Drop at Fastest Pace Since Global Financial Crisis - YouTube
    Negative inflation -0.8% for CPI. 4 months of negative inflation. 16 months of producer prices deflation.
    They need (manufacturing and infrastructure, because home investment is weak now) investment momentum. Maybe social housing construction.
    Policy credibility is low after lockdowns, less expectation about the implementation, positive incentives for government officials is low. Doing nothing is more incentivized. Cash to low income families to support their consumption suggested by analyists.
    Lots of top officials in China replaced recently. Securities regulator since 2019 on his way out. This is often associated with a boost in stocks. New guy is a discipliner. ‘The Broker Butcher.’ Government will maybe go after malicious short selling.
    Year of the Dragon, ‘most auspicous’, just started in China.
    The year of promoting consumption.

    Hermes has a wait list who've been waiting several years for a call saying they can buy a bag. So we can expect their customers will never be seen to dip, because they can just call the next person on the list.

    Chinese stocks, when will sentiment change? Need systemic change for any rally to be sustained (if there were a rally now investors would be selling into it probably). Other EM markets are looking pretty good (and their potential story is more understood), competing for the international fund flow. SKorea and Japan have corporate governance stories. American big tech only has real forseeable solid business plan. Chips and AI.

    Nvidia looking to build out custom chip segment: Reuters - YouTube
    Big companies have been looking at/starting to build their own chips for themselves, but Nvidia is saying hey we're already building chips, and we can build your custom chips for you cheaper. More specified chips.

    Off the Charts: Nikkei hits 34-year high - YouTube

    White House investing $5 billion in chips: Here's what to know - YouTube

    X Inks New Deals with WWE, BetMGM - YouTube

    Nvidia passed Amazon's market cap.
    Since last Jan up from $200 to $750. Valuation though is lower than before, at 33x (Amazon is 40x, META is 23x).
    Best capex going, but other companies have the same market.
    ARM is up 100% or so in the past few days.

    Delaware's corporate shake-up: Billionaires take aim at the state - YouTube
    Nevada, Texas.

    Ontario brewery receives onslaught of online hate after hosting Trudeau - YouTube

    Why Direct-To-Consumer Companies Like Casper, Allbirds And Peloton Are All Struggling - YouTube
    DTC brands have to keep themselves on people's radars constantly, which means continuous ad spending. Ad spending on Facebook and other platforms has gone way up over the past couple years. 10 years ago the first DTG brands had no competition and cheap ads. Now there's tons of people trying this and even competitors for the same target demographic, and then also ad prices have gone up a lot. Right now that looks great for Facebook, who raised its cost per impression 90% in 2021 (Google did 100%). But what happens when these companies stop trying?
    Warby Parker, the quintessencial DTG brand, did glasses, where there was no competition, and started right at the start of this all. But they started making brick and mortar right away. Shops with their products and brand. Also, their product is just cut out for this model, because glasses you can just mark up a lot from what they're produced for.
    Peloton pivoted to selling in big box stores. Some of these DTG companies had to make changes along te way.
    Birkenstock, Chewy also did well.
    ‘When I’m on social media, I want to be able to purchase your product right then. When I'm walking by your shop, I want to be able to purchase your product right then.'

    USA fundamentally gave away manufacturing to overseas during the 60s and 70s.

    Machine versus machine is equal USA prices to China prices for manufacturing. Labor is different. (We don't know how much Chinese factory workers make.)
    The supply chain doesn't exist in the USA becaues it hasn't done it for years.
    Through laws, USA government is funding manufacturing (chips).

    China is still the most efficient place to produce.

    If China continues to be a security threat, other countries will continue to try to look elsewhere.

    Startups Are Shutting Down! - YouTube

    Nontech companies that were made to look like tech. Old businesses repackaged to get billionaire investments.

    People hoping to repeat some profitable examples like Facebook.

    AI was the only bright spot last year. But the economy is doing just fine, labor market is tight, stock market at a high.

    Creative destruction of bad business models is a part of the capitalist system, but ‘zombie companies’ have been propped up for a while artificially with banks etc.

    ‘The deeper human connection is going to be the edge in AI.’

    Spikier print on inflation. Consumer prices up 0.3%. People talking now about higher for longer, more. The labor market has reportedly broke though. I also have not yet seen any reason to slow down on rates. You have to break something in the economy and destroy wealth/money to make dollars worth more, right? You have to have people wanting to work balance out the money to pay them, right? It was an artificial inflation, and the deflation has to mirror it, right? But I'm still invested, because you have to do what you think people will most likely do, not what they should do. ... Another way to look at is that the Fed has made the right choice (so far this year in not cutting rates).



    ‘It seems that the Fed is not finished, perhaps.’ So we might stay higher for longer and have that recession after all.

    Some people at the start said you should raise rates high and fast, to snap something to a break, and then return to normal. Then the economy, which was running at the level people wanted it to, would not break it's trend and people would continue in their habits. ... But if you prolong a different situation, a different economy, people will modify their habits and behave, longterm and habitually, a different way.

    Probably the Fed is not as suprised about the print as the market. The market is coming closer to the Fed, maybe .

    However, people are now using their savings to pay for things.

    How 2024’s Record Retirement Numbers Could Spark a Recession | WSJ - YouTube

    Alberta’s honey industry is a buzzing business - YouTube

    Romance scammers target Americans - YouTube

    Maybe private equity will lose, as they can't compete with cash.



  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024
  • Everything was reinvested in bigTech companies, but now Facebook just announced a dividend. Apple does regular buybacks.
    It means they're probably not going to do moonshots, not going to just do acquisitions that don't make any sense (which is not working also nowadays because of govenrment). ‘We’re really focussed on shareholder value.'

    An aspect to Zuckerburg/Congress/Governments is that once you get a certain size, you've ‘won too much’ and people will start pulling you back down a bit. Big Tobaco. Pharma. Big Tech. We have an easy consession, which is age. 15 or 16 maybe, for social media.

    High housing prices force wildfire victims off Maui | DW News - YouTube

    Doctors unionize as healthcare services are consolidated into corporate systems - YouTube


  • Bottom of real estate market 2012












  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 30,2024


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 26,2024



  • China stock market has fallen near it's earlier bottom. They reported 5% growth, ‘hitting' the government's target. Doubts. If they stimulate their yuan will depreciate, and they don't want a weaker exchange rate. China faces a lot of headwinds, and Xi doesn't really believe in the free market. State owned enterprise valuations. It would be so interesting to gets news about and follow events in China, but there is no such information made public. They buy 12m barrels every day, 8bcf of LNG every day, 40% of their food every day, and they have to buy it in dollars. WIlling global trading partners. CEOs there are moving their supply chains out of China, the majority, reportedly.
    They have 100m vacant apartments and condos. $57t in banking assets, $2t in banking equity. Local financing market $13t, 90% of the market is in default (?). Estimates of $4t in real estate losses.

    Everyone very pessimistic on Europe. They've saved their stimulus, though, and debt a lot of it is floating rate, and so they've already suffered the shock of rates. Also, they've already had an energy shock.

    Google pulls back on Moonshots - YouTube

    S&P new high. Almost always when that happens, 12 months later you're up. This is market behaviour, not random (but not necesarily related) historical data, Compound said. 746 days since last new high.

    Netflix up 20% in past 3 months, recently boosted by deal with exclusive WWE and surprisingly higher subs. They have no M&A intrigue. No activists. No linear decline. They don't have to focus on sports. Their TV shows have done well, not so much for films so far. They made 100 new series in 2023. Other streamers did like 10 or 15. Other platforms are now selling on to Netflix.

    Stock picking. Have to get the fundamentals right finally this year, say some. Because NVDA and APPl are both the same multiple, but Nvidia is making huge revenue percentage increases and is expected to continue, while Apple did 5% increase. Earnings reports to follow will show what the company's fundamentals are doing. Texas Instruments was quick to meet supply chains and so is now in like 4 quarters of losses, while other companies this is still or never to come.

    United Airlines CEO publicly criticizing Boeing, and mentioned they only have one other option (Airbus). Limitation of duopoly producers.

    FTC scrutinizes megacap's AI deals - YouTube
    Essentially bankrolling their own businesses.
    Comes back to them through credit for services

    2/3 of startups run out of cash in 2024/25 or something, so lots will sort of fold, freeing up talent to join other new projects. It's mostly the junior devs who are being replaced by AI reportedly.

    U.K. suspends trade negotiations with Canada - YouTube
    UK wants more access to Canadian cheese and Canada isn't going to give it. It's a supply managed protected sector (policy now but law is in congress right now to possibly pass).

    Mass EV adoption is a lot harder than early adoption, says former Ford CEO Mark Fields - YouTube

    Spot bitcoin ETFs move away from original ideals of crypto, Beam CEO argues - YouTube
    Financial institutions are getting more influence over crypto. The core promise of crypto was that people are in control of their money. So far there are no products that uphold the values of crypto at the same time as being as easy as buying an ETF. Centralizing.
    Even if the institutions are negative in terms of trading power for value, structurally they add liquidity to bitcoin and allow it to function better.
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024





  • Consumers have reached a point where they don't have the incremental spending power: Clarence Otis - YouTube
    2 years of inflation. Winding down of inflation. Efficiency instead of hiking prices. Maybe have to work harder at it.

    VanEck CEO Jan van Eck talks SEC approving bitcoin spot ETFs - YouTube

    We have a clearer idea how Bitcoin is valued, how it trades, how it is bought and sold.

    😱SHOCKING! Charging My Electric Car Costs 2X As Much As GAS!😱 - YouTube
    ?

    Costco opened its 6th store in China, massive lineups. Costco has been successful in every market they've moved into, even frugal Japan with small spaces and not as much carry transport maybe. They love moving into terrirtories of the middle class. ... Lots bought a giant US-cartoon-famous bear. Costco is limited in the amount of stores it can open in China because of lack of qualified managers, reportedly.

    Netflix may have won the streaming war. It has something for everyone, it cuts across every demographic, they have significant growth drivers, strong engagement. Like the classic bundle.

    Lots of YouTubers posting videos about ‘quitting YouTube’. YouTubers have no alternative platform. Some have come up but been attacked by YouTube etc, it seems. However, the sentiment has been there for a long time that vloggers/broadcasters are forcefully kept on YouTube's platform.

    If a company has a 30 or 50% profit margin (or more), that's a sign already that it's a monopolistic business, because in a competitive market you can't have that. A mutual detante with your biggest competitor.

    The best churn rate is Netflix, who will lose 40% per year. Disney and Hulu maybe 50%. Starz and Peakcock and Paramount, like 100 or 140%. But that means NFLX needs 100m new people per year. Facebook and Google benefit because that's where the ads will appear. Without fresh content, people will churn.

    YouTubeTV subs is doing really well. Without a box, on your phone or any device, you can view the old offering set. Will YouTube win?
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08,2024
  • Barclays downgrades Apple: Here's what you need to know - YouTube

    Tesla Deliveries Meet Estimates, Falls Behind BYD in Sales - YouTube

    World's richest billionaires add $1.5 trillion in wealth during '23 after losing $1.4T in '22 - YouTube

    Bitcoin soars to kick off 2024, topping $45,000 for first time since April 2022: CNBC Crypto World - YouTube
    Bitcoin is driven by global liquidity: Marathon Digital CEO - YouTube
    When it's risk off or when people need to sell a bit of their portfolio. Or when they want to avoid a volatile investment.
    Costs to mine, during the halving, low to mid $20ks is breakeven. Marathon went from 7x a hash to 25x.
    Government might delay or reject the ETF, or might approve it.

    YouTube now has one or sometimes two non-skippable ads before videos quite frequently. This is beyond what even I am willing to sit through. I found an alternative so no ads play, something I didn't want to do, as I recognize ads as the way to fund publishing, and am generally against adblockers. However, this is too much, and YouTube has dominated the market for online free videos, partially through unfair anticompetitive measures, and are about the only platform. If they were one participant in a rich market of online videos, or if they didn't have what I now consider way too much advertising for the offered product, I would not have to do this.

    Amazon, I bought a laptop there, and after they already completed the sale, retroactively went and ‘froze’ my 5-year account (so their customer service couldn't even ‘see it’ and help), and wanted me to phone in to verify, a certain manipulation of leverage to violate privacy. Note that this wasn't before accepting the contract of sale (which is anyone's right), but after they already made the sale. I will use Amazon as little as possible henceforth. I can but things from Walmart, computer manufacturers, etc.

    Note that Amazon also manipulates their reddit sub. When you post something, they have an auto-reply saying you may only post complaints on a given thread on a certain day called ‘meltdown’ (as if any complaints are the fault of the customer who just can't handle things). They don't say the post is removed, so you think it's published. But if you view their page in a private browser, you won't see your post because it's not public.

    Why Everyone is Abandoning GoPro - YouTube

    How cheap it's going to be to copy an existing business in 2024. - Chamath. Create these really cheap
    and then basically attack the existing big business which have just a lot of upside-down economics because they've taken on so many costs, employees. GPT can replicate this for free.

    Pro sports franchise/enterpirse values peak? - Chamath. Live Tour versus PGA forced PGA to merge. Country SA bought Christiano. College athletes will be making millions. Uptick in churn at Netflix.

    BTFP, used to bail out regionals last year, supposed to be a temporary program of 1 year, but banks might not be strong enough to survive without this funding (impaired comercial debt portfolios, and until the yield curve deinverts).

    GPTs, the request time length is way too long (30 or 90 seconds versus should be milliseconds), and the cost of credits is too high.

    Will decline in military resources and appetite for spending resources lead to an increased risk of nuclear weapon use? - Friedburg

    Many AIs and they might value down 70 or 80% this year. Just like having 15 search engines.

    Competition is coming on in software engineers, with AI.


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 02,2024


  • Tuesday, Jan 2, first stock market open day of the year. Looks like people can take gains in BitTech, and rotate to their ideas for 2024.

  • From FedEx to airlines, companies are starting to lose their pricing power - YouTube
    Finally?

    How Creators Monetize Poverty - YouTube


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023
  • SPY had is biggest incoming flow. Partially rebalancing of some big fund. QQQs saw a big outflow same day (they sold the DOW).

    Trading Floors Make a Comeback in Japan - YouTube
    BOJ changed monetary policy on government bonds, and this meant a return of volatility.

    Alcohol sales underperform when cannabis is available, says Cowen's Vivien Azer - YouTube

    The studio at Paramount is the 'asset' that people want in a merger, says Puck's Matt Belloni - YouTube

    Everyone thought there were all these subscribers out there. Turns out it was much harder. - Matt Belloni on Netflix

    Sports, you're renting those rights. The payment of $2b is coming up to Paramount for NFL.

    Apple stops selling some Smartwatches Online - YouTube
    Apple initially talked about hiring or licencing from Mossimo, but ended up just hiring about 20 of their developers to just work on Apple's prodcut.

    Average age of farmers in US 55, in Japan 68. Highest rate of suicides in UK is farmers. Agriculture. In the US, more people study public relations that agriculture. Nobody wants to be a farmer. Get hot and dirty all day.

    Americans have $1t in cc debt. They payed $120b in interest and fees last year.

    Half a billion in rewards getting forfeited or devalued. Bait and switch.

    Why Wall Street Is Rushing Into Private Credit Market - YouTube
    A mix of who has the money (credit lenders) and who has the relationships (the banks). Symbiotic relationship coming? The banks act as a bridge, because you have no idea how to call Blackstone. How do you manage the underwriting process, the terms of the deal, when a default happens. Those have to be worked out.

    Tencent loses over $43 billion in market value after China proposes new online gaming rules - YouTube

    When you see clients start buying individual names, that's when things begin to rally. - JJ Kinahan

    Tesla removes Disney+ after cursing out Disney CEO: why automakers removing carplay matters - YouTube
    So all Tesla owners who want their kids to watch Disney in the back seat can't? (Not saying it's a bad thing for them, just for Tesla economics.)

    The average holding period for an individual investor is 10 months. Mutual fund 2.5 years.

    Masimo CEO Addresses Smartwatch Patent Dispute With Apple - YouTube

    $1.3t inflow into cash in 2023, BofA said. Record. Also, $177b into US treasuries.

    REITs are the best sectors when rates are coming down. WELL, senior living part of the real estate sector.

    VIX at a 5-year low.

    OpenAI IPO for $100b? Went from $20m to over a billion in revenue, reportedly.

    2023 The Financial Year in Review - YouTube

    Dimson research from a couple years ago. Majority of stock market returns come from periods of falling interest rates.

    US Pending Home Sales Index Holds Steady at Record Low - YouTube























  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 21,2023
  • 2023 the supply chain and the bulwhip effect really created that initial inflationsurge, and then the media helped fuel this idea that inflation would be sticky, which allowed people to raise prices, and people to demand wages. But as that psychology broke, that cycle is now drifting lower, even expectations. - Tom Lee on what many ‘pundits’ got wrong about 2023, saying the reason was that they had only ever experienced at best the 80s frequent inflation, but never an inflation like the 70s. They focussed on a single analogy. 65% of largecap fund managers are missing their benchmark right now for 2023, way above average underperformance (usually about 55% are missing).

    2024 Fed is no longer flighting an inflation war so it doesn't need to be hard on stock market. Instead it just wants to keep the business cycle healthy. That gives them room to cut rates. We're in an earnings recovery cycle. Economy is shifting more towards goods, which helps S&P earnings. Europe and Chine might recover, so earnings backdrop is quite good. People are in cash and will see they could have made way more money if they'd just stayed in the stock market. So market is well supported. Tom Lee.

    But there could be big changes. It might not be as narrow. If probabiliy favors market expansion you overweight small caps. They're very cheap relative to S&P right now. The 10 year has a lot of room to come down, and that should bring down mortgage rates, so be overweight groups leveraged to mortgage rates or a recovery in housing, like regional and largecap banks. Financials have a balance sheet recovery, a credit recovery, and even maybe improved demand for credit because pentup capex. (People had been cautious and underordered and didn't expand, but then when the hard data is correct they have to start spending again, which is upside to Industrials earnings, but also helps Financials because capEx is consuming more credit. 2024 a backend loaded year, more money made in second half. AI momentum might go away (timing gets pushed out). Tom Lee.

    Calling smallcaps, which have been a drag on portfolios the last few years, ‘zombies’ is an ‘unfair characterization. The Russel has always had only 70% of its companies profitable. So that’s not a problem if companies aren't profitable because that's always been the nature of the index. What matters is macro, like retail inflows. If people are taking money out of the stock market, they're not putting money into any Russel small cap index, so that's why there's been such a drainage out of smallcap and collapse of valuation. P2B is same as bottom at 1999. They have higher cost of money and are generally more levered, so this tight money has punished smallcap businesses. Soft landing isn't good for smallcaps but expansion if it happens is a huge tailwind. Tom Lee.

    Financials are underowned. Positioning is lowest in 10 years for hedge funds. Tom Lee.

    Technology companies are going to grow earnings faster than S&P, and multiples don't have to contract for Tech. It's just there's less juice in the thesis because there's less room for surprise. You only sell Tech if there's going to be a hard landing and then companies would slash capEx (but then you just want to be in cash). Tom Lee.

    History reading is the most important way to understand society, but it's also helped create thematic research for us. Demographic studies. (Crypto disruption, millenials' dislike towards banks.) Labor shortage and AI. Listening to credit and internals. Inflation at the 32-component level. Tom Lee.

    Bitcoin is the most secure way to move money. No fraudulent transactions in 15 years of their ledger, with banking 6% are suspicious. Tom Lee. You've never had a downcycle in crypto when Fed is easy.

  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • Devaluación del 50% y fuertes recortes, las primeras medidas económicas del Gobierno de Milei - YouTube
    #Argentina

    Jim Bianco discusses Yesterday’s FOMC Meeting, Reaccelerating Inflation & Financial Conditions - YouTube
    Current bull market, it seems to most. Sentiment is good among investors. Bianco says it might be premature, because if there are market gains people who made them will spend that, feeding inflation. Or has the Fed enacted an economy-cooling method that only slows down the poor while investors do fine?

    ‘Economic projections cannot be the only driving focus of your portfolios, because everyone last year was calling for a recession.’ - Marta Norton

    Pair it with valuation, base case economic scenario, and the range of economic outcomes.

    ‘People were fooled by the yield curve at the start of this year, thinking we’d have a hard landing. And they didn't want to fight a Fed, but they're forgetting the Fed was fighting an inflation war, not a business cycle.' Tom Lee

    'Improving liquidity, as investors took $240b out of stocks this year.'

    $6t on money market funds.

    All-in Podcast:

    (9:29) Jury rules in favor of Epic Games over Google: How to handle the app store duopoly?
    (23:21) OpenAI inks deal with Axel Springer
    (35:02) FCC cancels Starlink subsidy, dissenting FCC Commissioner says federal agencies are targeting Elon Musk on Biden's orders ('A pattern of the Federal government harrassing Elon and his companies, and it all stems from Biden at that press conference saying ‘We gotta look at this guy.’
    (58:25) Alex Jones reinstated on X

    E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI's news deal, FCC targets Elon, the limits of free speech & more - YouTube

    FTX files revised proposal to end bankruptcy and return billions to creditors: CNBC Crypto World - YouTube

    Economy will slow 'substantially' next year compared to the current pace: Marathon Asset's Richards - YouTube
    ‘Year of the refi’. High-yield bond market, leveraged loan marketplace, private credit, all doing 12% plus this year. Credit has performed well. 2024 will be similar, but there will also be very strong volumes. M&A has been down. But as rates come down, it will unleash M&A and private equity.
    Consumers will refinance into lower rates. Auto loans and mortgages. Corporate refinancing.
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 12,2023
  • ‘[T]the real rate of interest, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines.’ - Ackman

    More people moving out of Austin than in, first time. Some are moving from Texas to Cali. Although 3x that amount are moving Cali to Texas. House prices in Austin are up, so a house might cost the same in SF or Austin now, and taxes are different (Cali has prop13 to protect against high prices(?). Austin still has no income tax though.

    The last Fed hike and then a cut is actually bearish.

    Vol only works as in indicator, when it's high, extreme.

    Pfizer to discontinue twice-daily weight loss pill due to high rates of adverse side effects - YouTube

    Pharma is the biggest advertiser, because they want to be able to shape news coverage, and they influence news coverage, because they're the biggest advertiser.
    The rules of TV entertainment news are pretty harsh.

    Nov a buy-everything market, stocks and bonds.

    Last 10 years Tech has compounded at 16%, non-tech at 6%. Matches earnings for these two. We're back on trendline for Tech versus non-tech.

    U.S. oil production is a 'real problem for OPEC', says top energy analyst Paul Sankey - YouTube
    Saudi will decide.

    Bitcoin doesn't have a lot of buyers at the bottom. When it gets high it gets a lot of buyers.

    The Fed has 'basically become a giant hedge fund', says former World Bank President David Malpass - YouTube
    It borrows at 5.4% from banks and dumps it into government bonds, so govtthinks its better off than it is, which encourages it to be short when rates were zero. It's a risk for USD.
    A floating rate loan from banks to the Fed. Banks can get squeezed out for this. We're relying on private equity. I banks weren't doing this loan to the Fed, banks could consider small business loans and things that are thought to grow the economy. All the major Central Banks are doing this. Allocating capital to government will slow growth, thinks Malpass.
    Not balanced. Small borrowers (who would like to borrow at floating rate) have to borrow at short end. Wealthy can borrow at long end.
    (There's no money printing. It's all money borrowing.) - David Malpass

    Moody’s cut China’s credit outlook to negative on rising debt risks - YouTube

    ‘Fed is paying people not to take risk.’

    Citi is cutting ‘5 layers of management’. How many layers were there?

    ‘The same factors that delivered better than expected growth still intact.' - Julia Coronado

    Better productivity, better labor supply. Fed has ammo and can cut rates 100bps. If we uninvert the yield curve that can be a positive tailwind for growth in the second half. ‘We’re in the soft landing' and there's another cycle to come.

    But there are lags in monetary policy, rates are very high, money is tight and could start to bite. Housing in deep freeze.

    Trade settlement going from 3 days to 1 day in US. It guarantees you got the things you bought, sooner. It's guaranteed by someone in the middle for now 1 day. ‘Counter party risk.’ But banks don't get to keep that spread for 3 days now.

    Netflix released their numbers, in order to look good?
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023


  • Berkshire is holding record cash, can't seem to find anything they value buying. They have it in short term security and buybacks.

    Is there just a lot of money nowadays and a big investor is less useful? For example, all the new companies get bought at too-high prices, more fail than Buffet's traditional model (or even a model of overall viability), but some have success?

    The economy was supposed to be much weaker. It's not. That's why when the market moves, the marrative shifts to fit that price action. - Misra

    Fundamentals are holding up in Qs. Tax loss harvesting occurs everywhere except the megacaps. Buybacks will be strongest in megacaps. Megacaps have least sensitivity to cost of borrowing.

    Retail traders aren't trading as much. Not great for RobinHood, Schwab, who had been pushed to highs. Can they build a base of wealthier, long term investors who want to use their product? Retailers have learned it's tough to earn on the market, and that this can eat away at their returns.

    118 day Hollywood writers strike over (tentative deal still has to be signed). The impact of the strike will be seen rolling. Shows that they didn't write were put off, so will be shown later, next year. How will the industry be on the other side of this? There's a question about if you strike too much there may not be any place to strike from. Writers will get bonuses for hit series though now.

    Disney cut back production costs $27b to $2b, so the cost of several projects. Others doing the same. End of content bubble. It's hard to screw up sports, some say, but you gotta figure out how to do it.

    Disney parks are more expensive now so sort of target more affluent customers.

    European gas inventories are almost 100% full.

    Berkshires costs are up 40%.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvE9hsCb4V0

    Same quarter or quarter before Berkshire moved stocks.

    Buffet's taxes were stolen and leaked.

    This was done by ProPublica, whose business model seems to be significantly just going after wealthy people who have made money (legally). Buffet has a long resume.

    More tech layoffs announced.

    China. Visitors there need WeChat and DiDi (WeChat pay requires Chinese bank account) to do simple things like pay for taxis (report someone had to pay 100yuan instead of 30 because the driver didn't have change. They had to go to Chinese bank to open an account for WeChat, which required a Chinese phone number, so they had to acquire that from a Chinese telecom, which required a Chinese ID number. Because they were foreign passport holders, they had to buy a 1-year telecom package.

    Some hotels reject foreign guests unless they're registered with the public security beaureau.

    Canton Fair: 80% Drop in EU/US Buyers. Instead, new customers are from Belt and Road countries.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1FkCGSDhPU

    Unions aren’t about money to the workers, they're about control, said Ron Baron. He said the TSLA stock went down yesterday because Biden said should unionize, Tesla. The other automakers have unions. It's true that there's little way for a government/large organization to influence a mass of individual workers but can deal with a small committee that controls those workers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or1JV2MImyg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtxizfEdc

    Rating stays the same at AAA. This is outlook. The rating doesn't have to do with the economy or workers or productivity. The issue is politicians.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KxWeupa6U0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LThIM974gjc

    Costco made new highs

    Walmart. Target, after plummeting during the year, has been flat since September. The difference is Walmart sells groceries (and US has been in inflation). Anecdotally, someone also said Walmart loves lowering prices and Target hates doing so. Walmart consumables, Target discretionary.

    There was a big rally November 14, basically everything green. Russel was up like 4.5% while other indexes were up like 2 or less. Smaller names had big jumps in stock price, while the most famous tech names were just regular up days.

    Ford lost $62k on each EV it sold last quarter. Lucid lost $227k per car sold last quarter.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnjjmnivQnc

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJeMmRV7B-0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEKPUARYckc

    Might be some point here about acoutability being proveable in AI and less so in people.

    Possible white-collar recession

    Airlines have ‘become banks’, selling airmiles to CCs. SWA announced their points will be worth less next year. Lots of points out there.

    Right now, domestic travel is down. Still lots of international.

    Inflation decrementing at 20basis points per month. Middle of 2024 core CPE might be 2.7 or 2.8 with Fed funds at 5.5. Fed might think it's oversteering.

    “Stock pickers paradise” - BofA

    “Delinquincies are just coming back to normal after the pandemic.”

    Rates. Went from ‘almost too accomodative’ 0% to 5%. Which is different from like 3% to 8%. Also consumers and corporates prepared for higher rates, and locked in obligations at low rates.

    Argentina, if it changes to dollars, it needs how many actual dollar bills in the country? It currently has a shortage. Is tying its economy to the US economy a good thing? In future it will be constricted in using monetary policy to buffer against changes in the economy.

    Lebanon did incremental rollout of dollarization, starting with certain sectors or businesses.

    Homebuilders still doing well, although DIYers down. The pros. Partly because no one is buying new homes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuAy0TFQOAk

    ‘I understand his animus towards Bill Gates for shorting his stock, because that really was a move to try to shut the company down. I don’t understand the same animus towards advertisers who decide to no longer advertise on X because they don't like what's there and they don't want their brand associated with that.' - CNBC host

    ‘It’s a very bad choice.' Musk on the 2024 election prospects, a sentiment agreed with by many. No one is impressed really with any candidate (perhaps in the general population, because their rallies seem to have supporters).

    Auto dealer inventory piling up, discounts will be there.

    People are paying a lot for house and vehicle, but that has an easy fix, which is monetory policy. - Tom Lee

  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0t6g7RdOoE

    Bonds have shown that they're bad hedges against inflation. We haven't had inflation in 40 years so everyone forgot about that. - Siegel

    Stocks are real assets, just like real estate is.

    Luxury market. Wines and spirits puchases down. Some watches prices going down.

    The data the Fed is looking at is changing.

    Americans' savings almost gone, while in the rest of the world pandemic savings are still high. How reliant is the consumer to overnight interest rates, and if the answer is ‘Not very,' ...

    Costs for United. A flat cost assumption for 2024. Costs up 4-5% yOy. And every 1 point of cost is $1 of EPS on $10 of EPS for 2024. New labor contracts and aircraft delays. 8-10 year restocking cycle (also in Defense). Oil prices up.

    El-Erian #philosophy

    The market has lost the Fed/policy as an anchor (guide) because it's data dependent (backward looking and dubious). Technicals also not an anchor because the market lost the reliable buyers (Fed, China, institutional investors who are under water, Japan).

    Short term, the inherent stabilizers of the market aren't there now. The people who, every time the market went down, would come in to lock in those interest rates (who have been buying and watching the valuations continue downward). The market is hunting for buyers of conviction.

    We know supply is gonna go up. The Fed is going to offer more bonds.

    (Excessive) data dependence is ridiculous because it means using tools that have lags. The notion you are looking at a forward-looking economy in inherently inconsistent.

    He said previous Feds had taken a forward-looking view instead. Controversial at the time, but it was critical in anchoring the markets.

    “Permacrisis”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raZxiN0uy1Q

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfHycqsG7bs

    Higher rates don't matter to many people. Answer to the question why the higher rates aren't really affecting the economy.

    Morgan Stanley saw about 50% less money coming into accounts than the year before. The year before, everyone was making 1% on their cash and they could be making 5%, so they all called and made money moves. Now everyone's sitting with 5% and there's no fomo from equities.

    Tax loss harvesting in October. Mutual funds want to clear losers off their books before the tax cutoff (October), so they are willing to sell even at an 80% loss when the stock is only down 70%. After October, those sellers have left the market, and this leads to rallies in these low-quality stocks. They go up Nov through Jan.

    Bitcoin. The spot ETF is back in the news, and bitcoin jumped again, up about 20% to $35k. It had been as low as $17k last year. When it rose to $70k during Fed money printing, it was tracking with the stock market, drawing considerations that it was tethered to the market now. But this year it has gone up 100% from lows, and up the most recent 40% (from 25 to 35) while the market has not gone up really much (not a risk on tech market), so it appears to be not correlated now. Fink called it a ‘flight to quality’. TLT is down about the same as bitcoin is from their highs. But people aren't buying TLT.

    Pompliano called bitcoin the most disciplined central bank in the world, because no one bails it out. If the Fed approves an ETF, that might be good for bitcoin. If the Fed bans bitcoin, people might buy it because they'll really think it's not inside the system, and isn't controlled by any government.

    Luxury brands have come down from their highs (last march, 6 months ago), stocks down about 30 or 40%. Sales are back in line with tradition. Hermes is down 12%. Most discretionary items most vulnerable. Champagne sales down for first time in 3 years.

    Chanel flat bag is $10k. 4 or 5 years ago, it was $5k.

    Most buyers of luxury are not wealthy. They're upper middle class that like to splurge. They currently don't have all that extra cash.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zG_l_7bCR8g

    Rich-cession. High earners filing for unemployment. Credit. They're looking at the stock market, which is their holding. Many companies survive because of rich people spending, and all that is driven by the stock market. Top 20% by income account for 50% of spending (?in the economy or just luxury?). Their spending keeps the economy going, keeps companies profitable.

    Tech giants and Financial companies (Wells cut 11k jobs ie 5% of their workforce), which had made headlines for laying off thousands of people at a time last year, has stopped doing such layoffs.

    Do inversions predict recessions, or do they cause recessions, as Arnott said?

    Recessions always start with an economy that's booming. It's the nature of the peek, said Arnott.

    People are talking about bitcoin and equities being ‘the safe asset’ because they've lost confidence in government bonds because of the nature of this interest rate risk. El-Erian

    Real estate. 7% interest rate for loans for good credit applicants. Homebuilders are paying sometimes 10-11% now, which may lead to restriction of supply and raise rents.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iiIUoVFNbY

    SBF said he bought the Miami Heat arena as advertising, because he didn't believe in Facebook ads, and it was considered a 19-year advertising investment, so it would be 1% of FTX's revenue.

    ‘It’s t-bill and chill for people at upper end of wealth spectrum'

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhyHchGE3N4

    The 10-year at 5%, reflects uncertainty about how high the Fed has to be. If inflation weakens and unemployment picking up, the Fed will start to cut, is what the markets will think. Tom Lee.

    If the economy slows but consistent with soft landing, that's ‘bad news is good news’ but if it's a sudden slowing because we just ran out of gas that's actually ‘bad news is bad news’.

    $2t a month a gross issuance.

    Inflation might be below 3% next year, said Rieder. However due to government borrowing the long end might not come down. He thinks we'll get a normal curve soon.

    Consumption is 70% services in the US. In 100 years there's only been 14 negative quarters of negative growth in services.

    China has been tightening over the past year, at various levels including nationally.

    The return to office has stalled - JPM guy

    What worked in low interest environment (last decade) may not work now, in high interest. Sea change, according to Howard Marks. Teslas were cheap, solar panels were cheap, when financing was low, but cost many percent more now. The companies if they want to keep sales figures have to lower their price to meet consumers' purchasing power. Over the past week or so, Marks, Barrons and Ackman have all publicly advocated bonds to degrees. Siegel also thinks the 10-year is near the top.

    McDonalds reported well-higher revenue because of higher prices, but traffic was actually lower.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XupM5_zHDbM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWiW6gE2cmY

    Canada talking about higher for longer. Unknown what will be the thing people cut from their personal budgets, if rent/inflation continues and wages grow less quickly, what will be the things not purchased?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JN9u-lRkXXE

    Families in the US on average are 40% wealthier than before 2019. Investments and real estate. The biggest demographic is under 35, who are like 150% wealthier (no other demographic is anywhere close). Do young people have a work experience completely different from any other generation?

    Net worth may be irrelevant to peoples ‘happiness’ because you can't spend a house or a 401k. Prices are inflated.

    Biggest names in S&P, the top 10%, are paying an effective interest rate of 2.5%, while the bottom 50% are paying 5.5%.

    WeWork bankrupt. Doesn't seem much illustrative of any significant larger theme. They leased a lot of offices.

    Bond talk day, Nov 1. Bond rates dropped, based on a bit better than expected news about treasury refunding, and then a bit more on reports of weaker economic data. $2b is worth 15basispoints lower. Long end demand starting to wane.

    AirBNBust hasn't really happened. Rising interest rates help the company (even if the opposite for it's host clients). AirBNB has cashflow. It gets to hold billions of dollars between the time guests pay and hosts receive. Same for Expedia and Booking. But the headwinds talked about before are still potential. Bookings are down and ADR rates are down/moderating, and there are policy changes in some cities.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwqPdZH3s10

    So companies do tests and share results of tests with Federal government before public release. Bio synthesis screening. Content authentication.

    EV purchases have slowed, but companies that had based their premise on the wide adoption of EVs are facing more serious pressures, and corporations are cutting back investments.

    Lack of affordable EVs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YjjoTHrpPw

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • Will Temu kill Amazon? How the Chinese shopping app's rapid growth could crack Amazon's dominance - YouTube 

    Selling packages of consumer products the buyer doesn't know what. 54m users in US. Grown a lot in past couple months. I'd never heard of it before this week when it appeared in headlines saying it was coming for Amazon. Ridiculously cheap deals, cheaper than Amazon, like half or a third of the Amazon price for some things shown (is this because Amazon shifted years ago to trying to profit from products, perhaps manipulating sales competition)? Amazon charges sellers 30%.

    Gamified. Spin a wheel and get promo bonuses. Also has games that if you play you can gain buying benefits on their site.

    Chinese manufacturers used to sell these products to US retailers, but now Chinese companies are also doing the retail.

    Temu takes a bit longer to arrive, but does this Amazon advantage, which they spent a lot on in the past decade, really matter to customers?

    Race to the bottom?

    Temu spends a lot on advertising, mostly on Facebook etc. They send free products to influencers. They send promo codes, afiliate links to share on social media. However their products might be cheap quality. Knockoffs (like Shien).

    Parent company is Pinduoduo. It has a lot of money. It's model is extremely low (unsustainable?) prices. Sales compounding eventually made Pinduoduo profitable in its compatition with Alibaba. It's focus is on customer aquisition and not on profits.

    US regulators have been ‘fighting’ TikTok but haven't done anything regarding Temu.

    China hasn't made it very easy for foreign investors to operate on the ground over past years when China was a surging place everyone wanted to do business. Now, their period of growth is possibly over, and what can they expect from foreigners?

    Services the government wants, versus companies competing with Chinese firms.

    Tax intake hasn't been strong this year.

  • Some airports now offering visitor passes - YouTube 

    This month, student loan payments resume or something, and on the 15th, there'll be a squeeze on liquidity and the banks because back-taxes in Cali, deferred due to bad weather last year, will come due. Maybe a factor in both bonds and stocks.

    Utilities (and other dividend stocks) are way down, compared with S&P also underperforming. They're competing with fixed income of 5%. Less volatile. They're trading at like 19x PE. Some say they should trade at 12x and 10forward.

    Utilities are huge borrowers of debt.

    tf utilities are not defensive.

    A market where all that matters is the balance sheet, with rates being where they are. Because companies, even ones doing good business, that are borrowing, especially on floating rates, are not looking so good. What looks good is businesses that are making profits.

    De-inverting very rapidly. - Gundlach

    -80 to -30 in past 2 weeks, 2 and 10 year.

    Gasoline demand at 25-year low. Rapid decel in credit card spending (5 months consecutive).

    The impact of rising rates is affecting the real economy right now.

    It's affecting areas of the market expert investors thought were unable to be penetrated.

    Clean energy and Solar etfs are down 20 or 30%. Have to borrow right now to fund their projects.

    As rates come back down, people will want to buy a different house again (currently they have 3% rates and don't want to buy something with a 7% rate).

    40-year low in mortgage delinquincies. Lots of people can afford the new rates, so there is demand (but not supply).

    Fed might not be controlling it anymore, but rather bond investors.

    Tom Lee said the morning was a bottom and bounce, and it did bounce and closed Friday high. JPM has been talking about 20% more downside.

    ‘It looks like sugary drinks are one of the places people cut back the most.’ They modify their product for each country. Coke is expanding into coffee and alcoholic beverages. They have knowhow how to bring products to market.

    Wells Fargo's exposure to West Coast and loan market.

    People actually want to do M&A again, because for the past couple years, the companies had the option to go public and raise more money than an M&A would bring.

    No Handyman Jobs! People are BROKE! - YouTube 

    He said a slowdown started 3 months ago and people stopped calling a couple weeks ago. And now the people who call are looking for the best deal, and he even lowered his prices. His minimum now is $125, which he quoted for a couple easy things, but months ago he wouldn't even have gone for less that $250.

    Mechanic said the same thing, that people don't want to do anything unless it's under warranty.

    “As a licensed Home Inspector, this is my worst year in 14 years. The economy is terrible, but the housing market is the worst. One thing I will point out to you, all of those customers that you were too busy to reply to when you were busy, that was a mistake. You could have established a relationship with some of them and maybe some of the others would be reaching out now or in the future. Always touch base with the client that reaches out. Even if you’re too busy, take advantage of the opportunity. Good luck moving forward my friend.”

    Why didn't towns and schools open programs to train people and youths how to do things like home repairs etc, like a 1 or 3 month program.

    Before, the Fed was trying to get inflation UP TO 2%, but they couldn't do it. Even if they pushed down on their scale, they couldn't make that happen. Now they're trying to do the opposite, selling bonds and raising interest rates.

    We still have enormous fiscal stimulus in the economy. Politicians can't agree on what baseline spending should be, not passing budgets. We haven't seen anything much happen in job destruction or wage destruction.

  • 1000 little cuts?

    Retail outlets seeing headwinds, and people's credit there (credit makes 60% of their revenue, not actual clothing sales, someone said on CNBC) is seeing delincuincies. Apple not growing fast. Amazon seeing FTC suit for monopoly. Lots of red on the market maps. Companies had good revenue in past quarters and mentioned AI, but x NVDA no one has actually done anything selling AI, which might mean correction upcoming earnings. Basically everyone has mildly negative things to say about market and economy, and no real positives. 10 year still steepening.

    Strikes on the rise: Here's why this is happening - YouTube 

    Example of propaganda from this perspective.


    Will Elon be able to get highly valued CEOs? or just COOs?

    We haven't had a real recession for 15 years (except for a short blip). So we have a lot of excess we need to work out of the system. Some of that is worked out and the cushion is thinner, but there's more excess to go. - Katie Koch

    Capital is re-pricing agressively, and (more, referring to banks) things will break. - Koch


    Argentina is Abolishing Income Tax. Here's Why | Vantage with Palki Sharma - YouTube 

    Only 1% of the population, those who make over $5000 per month, will pay income taxes. It was said this would affect 1.something m people (Argentine popluation is 46m). Argentina will print more money to meet the president's socialist promises, who comes to office in December (so the plan hasn't been put in place yet).

    In India, 1.6% pay income taxes. In the US, 53% of households pay income tax. Some say wealthy people are leaving India, taking their investable income with them.

    A year ago:

    Banks to Pay $1.1 Billion to Settle WhatsApp Probe - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 25,2023
  • Why Sweetgreen’s Beloved $15 Salads Still Aren’t Profitable | WSJ The Economics Of - YouTube 

    Mystery on the street: Rising interst rates are BOOSTING risky corporate loan returns instead of hurting them.

    Car prices are up a lot, labor for repairs is up, delayed repairs for lack of labor. Etc. So insurance is up like 20%.


    Cisco buys Splunk for $28 billion in push for AI-powered data - YouTube 

    Massive wave of MNA next 6 months.


    How U.S. tax dollars are being spent, tracked in Ukraine | 60 Minutes - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 18,2023
  • Marijuana is legal in NY, at least the legal version (which provides dosage and ingredients info on the pack, since plants can contain harmful ingredients). However, it's very expensive, maybe the most regulated industry, so something costs $100 but you can buy from an illegal marijuana shop for $25.

    Another issue is that the illegal shops packages are more attractive, but often use themes and images familiar to kids.


    Left's solution to housing: take the profit out - YouTube 

    Housing as an instrument of profit versus a right.

    More stores leaving California. Businesses have leases, and have to wait for the lease to complete.

    Inflation Re-Accelerates - YouTube 

    Energy Sector the culprit for everything this week. Auto workers on strike, EV transition plans by Biden, Airlines removing routes because of fuel prices.

    Demand destruction price might be much higher than $4 (currently at $3.80).

    However, weak growth in China.

    Lots of movements in labor, labor strikes, as a result of the pandemic, said Bianco. But we were expecting a recession before the pandemic, right?

    In 2021 PnG raised prices with much fanfare, warning, a white paper. Today, we just go ahead and raise prices.


    Blancpain X Swatch collaboration draws crowds for $400 watch - YouTube 

    Could be yearly a collab? Rev the hype machine, get it going again.

    That you can only buy in stores, creating a mania outside retail outlets. That you can have and no one else can have, limited edition. ‘The plastic Blancpain’?


    Chinese police arrest Evergrande staff | DW Business - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 13,2023
  • September in the stock market




  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04,2023

  • All of the economic momentum is pointing to the downside, says top economist Joe Lavorgna - YouTube 

    The yeild curve is still very inverted (not as much, but that's what typically happens, that when the recession comes the curve starts to steepen.

    Mortgage rates risen way above 7%, high credit card rates, high auto rates, tightening lending standards. Inertia pointing to downside. Lags, you can't pin down when.

    Employment prints right before a recession are often good, GDP too.

    Claims are up (only a little but up), payrolls are slowing, the revisions are downward.

    He's looking at the unemployment rate, which usually rises 50basis points from its low when a recession is coming.

    J Powell buys flexibility.

    $2.1t in excess savings in US households during pandemic period, due to stimulus. March there was $500b. June $190b. By October, all excess savings predicted to be spent, due to inflation.

    The anchoring effect of the inflation target rate of 2%. That's why we can't just change to 2.5%. The economy would become a bit unanchored.

    “The sacrifice ratio” - What an economy gives up to get inflation down. Usually you have to give up employment.

    NFLX expected that with limiting password to one household, they'd increase subs, but subs decreased a little bit. Were people paying based on an account for several households, which wasn't worth the same money once it was reduced to one household?

    Also, it's easy to sub, watch a bunch of series, and cancel the sub, and go to another streamer. Churn. It might not be about price, but rather just about what shows they have. Cable might be cheaper when compared to having 5 or 6 streaming services. Sports is a big consideration. But you can't get all the games from the same service. Amazon jas Thursday nights.

    Estimated cost to US economy of Hollywood writers' strike is $5b.



    Arrogance? A pretentcus hope for the need for more military?

    EM XChina funds outperformed those with China, so there are more popping up.

  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023











  • No one seems to talk about company quality going up or down. They talk about sentiment, for Meta, Nvidia, Tesla. They talk about multiples relative. But like PayPal, Amazon's product isn't getting better. It's possibly getting worse, as reviews are not as reliable, as they compete with their clients, as there are no new products on their site really (plus they have competition more now, since their only really strong point was cheap, fast shipping).
  • Maybe people aren't just putting it all in index funds anymore, because some stocks and sectors are making highs and other are making lows.

    'There's too much money. They're buying things before they even get cheap. I don't know what we do about that.' Josh Brown

    iPhones are a replacement business as much as they used to be a growth business. Still selling phones. Said JB, that every year one of 4 people in his house is getting a phone, replacement style. ‘That’s just how it is.'

    These companies (Microsoft, Apple, etc), they're not ‘growth companies anymore. They’re decent growers but all of a sudden started to trade at hefty growth-like multiples. And earnings were as always a nice reality-check that earnings were just OK. - Boockvar

    Everyone didn't want to miss the the-Fed-is-done trade. But now OK the Fed is almost done maybe, but the 10 year is now trading at 4.20. And the 30-year mortgage rate, which is priced off the 10 year, according to bank rate, is at the highest level since 2000. - Boockvar



    Consumer still strong.


    We could have 0 or negative inflation for a while anyway, suggested Tom Lee as just a possibility, given house prices. Everyone on CNBC panel surprised by this.

    Growth is strenthening, x energy S&P up for the quarter 3% the first time in six quarters. If only one more hike the market can absorb that maybe. Interest rates could stabilize and then the cash gets put to work.


    Rates could move higher. All the treasury buyers have become sellers (the Fed, Japan, China). Global demand for treasuries has shifted from hot to cold. Stocks are doing all the right things. Consumer and corporate balance sheets are considered healthy given the amount of inflation. Most economists on Wall Street have dialed back their recession forcasts. Services starting to weaken (?because people are going back to school?) - Subramanian

    When Fed reaches peak rates, they usually hold for 6 or 7 months. We've just reached what may be peak.

    2024 as a year of tepid recovery. Moderate growth year, earnings recovery due to circumstances (prolonged rates reduce demand for labor) . ... Overall trend is good for bonds and good for stocks. - Bailin

    There is still vast demand in China. Scale.

    Second-hand markets. Treasures, something special, they generally find it. And something they can afford. And creates social value (non-profit thrift store).

    The stuff that comes in, you can get a tax-credit now, reportedly.

    They sort it and put some online, and some in the store. They go through every single item. Online store:


    Maybe markets dominated right now by momentum traders rather than fundamentals traders/investors, because after good earnings, DHI went up like 4% and then dropped to -3%.

    Bonds might drift up to 5%. "And ironically it might be because the Fed has backed off of tightening that the bond market is starting to get nervous. If the Fed's not going to fight the inflation fight, the bond market will, by selling off bonds.

    We were at ‘the Fed’s almost done,' but after the Bank of Japan move and widening yield curve control,' all of a sudden the yield of the 10-year spikes. The rise now of higher interest rates. Longer period of time with higher rates, and every day someone's getting caught by it and can't make their business loan which came due. How does the stock market eventually react to this longer higher rates? - Bookvar

    The I-dont-want-to-miss-the-Fed-is-done-hiking rally. Days after Fed did its last 75bps hike, the market bottomed. The dollar bottomed also. After that there was AI and whatever.

    For a CEO, ‘My business starts to slow. Let me slow down the hiring and wait to see how things go.’ Then 3 months go by and business is not getting better, and actually its ticking down. Then you have to make a decision, well, my profit margins are falling, sales are falling. Then I may start laying off people. Then unemployment starts to tick up. Then we don't know if it cascades or not.

    In Tech they overhired, so they understandably made that decision. What if it happens after Revenge Travel?

    Bank managers, you don't want to be the one that makes a bad loan in this environment.

    Compounding deleveraging, a freezing in credit.

    China isn't bailing out Country Garden, Evergrande. Allowing developers, who are the main vulnerable part (not buyers of homes, although they will experience decilne in net worth with their assets), allowing them to fail. China doesn't want people to be dependent on the State, they haven't sent out cheques, although they call themselves ‘communist.’

    They still have the effects of what the government did to them during the pandemic, nailing them into their homes.

    Smartphone market is shrinking. Everyone is looking for a bottom in PCs. Those two take the most semiconductors. Autos.

    Federal Reserve Weighs In On Taylor Swift's Eras Tour - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 14,2023


  • In a couple years, interest will surpass defense as the #1 expenditure of the US government. “And what do we get for interest? Nothing.”

    He wants a Constitutional amendment, to limit the amount Congress can spend as a percentage of GDP, absent extraordinary situations.

    Last fiscally responsible pres was Clinton. Congress was when Gingrich wa Speaker, he said.

    R. Empire referenced. Fiscal irresponsibility, political instability, decline in moral values, overextended military, and failure to protect its borders. That's what he said, but we have no consensus of why the RE fell.


    Happened since June. Basically 100% in on puts for SPY and QQQ.

    Although he was early when he predicted the GFC.



    Will they be motivated voters now?

  • Niles

    Commodity prices are under pressure because costs are up.

    Copper is going to run out. There's only a handful of pure copper plays, and everyone's looking at them. The big guys would love to have that copper, but shareholders don't want that copper to disappear under the umbrella of iron ore.




    Calm down FTC scrutiny. Expected an FTC antitrust suit.

    Amazon used product data of sucessful retailers who used Amazon to make copies or whatever, and those sold well. Felt to be unfair. Have to compete with Amazon, who owns the platform. Scrutiny. Stopped doing this, reportedly.


    From 45 inhouse brands, 250k products, to under 20.

    Who made the decision at Amazon to do this?

    Amazon's 2-day shipping isn't the amazing service it was before. Now others do this too, and they have to compete.

    AI, if everybody has it, nobody has it - Damodaran
  • Index funds, which were at first ridiculed and called un-American for setting mediocrity as a goal, now control 20-30% of the US equities market. They're now more to provide a list of stocks for index funds to invest in than to inform on how the overall market is doing. First index fund in 1971. Boyle

    Imports to US dropped over recent months.

    Older workers (55+) who have left the workforce have not come back in, as usually is the case with this cohort. Supply story in labor.

    88% of S&P companies, the largest shareholder is either State Street, Blackrock, or Vanguard. Their influence in defense contracts. - Bet-David

    Do they want more wars?

    Is 88% a form of monopoly?

    Blackrock is $10t under management. Only 2 countries, US and China, have a bigger GDP.

    58% of Americans have an iPhone. Is that a monopoly (US says 50% is a monopoly)?

    We don't have competition today. The companies aren't broken up.

    Usually when China announces a whole raft of 15 measures it means they don't have one they think will work. But one of the measures in there is

    Asking the private sector, especially Tech, to give them case studies of how the private sector has helped the economy and helped society. The CCP isn't bound by that, but if they're convinced by it, they might say Oh we didn't know that, Why don't you guys do more of that.

    Chinese stock market was in 2007. It's dominated by companies that don't honestly report earnings etc.

  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 05,2023
  • The ecosystem is everything with Apple. Revenue has slowed down again. Might be nothing. But I've never heard people who ‘want’ to own an iPhone talk so much about hating their iPhone and how it broke after 2 years or is spying on them. It's not everyone, but I never really heard any iPhone user really talk like this before.

    All Amazon's 3 main businesses beat expectations. But $134b versus $131 expected, is that good? Shouldn't it be at least the rate of inflation?

    The yeild curve is the big story this week. 2022 and into 23 was ‘the short end of the yield curve’ and now it's the long end. The 30 year has taken off over the past month. Jap 10 year also has gone up this year. Jap stock market has performed best this year, followed by Europe, then US.

    Money has very little value right now, say some. Supply and demand. There is someone who wants to pay that amount for that thing.

    Now, unlike markets of the past 100 or 150 years, most of people's income goes automatically into Mutual Funds, which is invested automatically into the S&P. The money doesn't get to think, it's dumb, it's rule-based.

    Money printing redistributed the same sized pie (of the economy), maybe hoping it would cause some kind of economic activity/growth, but maybe it didn't.

    Empries trend toward centralized cronyism.

    Enemployment rate down from 3.5 to 3.6%. Earnings up month over month, 4.4% YoY. About to move into a period where base effects will be working against us, harder to print good numbers.

  • (Note chart isn't logscale)

  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 03,2023

  • US downgraded to AA+ (second time ever)

    ... because Congress messes with the economy by not agreeing on a budget. But no one adjusted their portfolios. Some criticism of rating agencies over the past 20 years.

    3-year and less down, 5-year and more up.

    Everyone talking Soft Landing and optimism growing. Like 9 days of higher closes in one of the markets (NASDAQ?), them lots of red for a couple red days.

    Companies are reporting earnings beats, but they're not up after that always. Companies that miss often go up more.

    Political advertising will be $14b in 2024 up from $2.5b, so advertising, TV companies will get a share. Paramount, Disney may examine keeping the Network and spinning off the TV stations.

    Investors ‘nervous about good news.’ Don't want a strong jobs report etc, because that bri3ngs a September rate hike.

    A day of most stocks up, but Utilities quite red. Bing said it was because bond yields are rising. First use of Bing. Google couldn't do it.
  • Won't see Buy and Hold in stocks again until around 2030, say some. Bear market rally since December. Rotating.

    Home buying demand is low numerically but supply is lower. Bidding wars have returned, despite high mortgage rates. Prices won't go down, but number of homes sold will go down.

    Vast majority of home owners have low rates from before. Won't be selling, except to move. Some people have adjustable rate mortgages, so those will come up in the next couple years.

    Migration to low-tax states like Arizona is a long-term trend.

    Rents expected to go down, though, because rental until construction is coming online.

    Household construction lower, as more people live in basements.

    So called ‘excess savings’ will run out by Fall.

    Current valuations ‘make no sense.' Carvana at $9b valuation, twice Macy's. Short interest at 40%. Microsoft launched an AI chatbot or something and added like $150b in market cap.

    Without optimism, you might look at the growing debt burden and say that collapse is coming.

    James Gormon (MorganStanley) thinks M&A and trading is starting to bottom out.

    Start to get used to the new rates. Underwrite risk and new opportunities and cost of capital.

    IPOs. A few coming soon, and more in the next year. The soon ones are strong companies with good stories, that are able to come out now. Demand for them, and then other companies will say it's an exciting time to come out.

    NASDAQ 100 will do a rules-based reweighting. 5% of the components can't represent more than 50% of the AUM. They'll cap some companies. They've done this before.

    ...

    NFLX is a growth story, and they posted slightly negative guidance for the first time. They did a bunch of things (ads, password sharing) over the past year, and those worked, but now no more things. They noted TikTok as a negative for engagement in their content, the creator economy content. With almost no cost, people can create content. That was the moat before, cost. Hyper-focussed content. Gaming also. And Netflix is considered the best positioned media stock right now, because it has massive content and will be less affected by writers/actors strike.

    ...

    During the pandemic no one cared about financing costs, 1%, 2%. Now that money has a cost people are going to care about this, and buy a new car rather than used.

    The average car on the road is 13 years old.

    ...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjLttNOdRG4
    Most provinces now at $15CAD ($11USD) minimum wage. Some a bit lower. Landlord is paying how much? Higher interest rates sometimes higher rates drive down prices (house prices) and sometimes up (mortgage costs).

    ...

    Investors starting to rotate out of big 7 into stocks that have been out of favor, taking profits and buying things with better valuations.

    ...

    “The big question for Netflix is when revenue per subscriber goes up”

    ...

    Past inflation has been controlled by the Fed, but this is the first time so much has been done Fiscally, just giving everyone money, so the models won't work the same.

    ...

    Lots of people on CNBC say to trim tech (big 7, overall already up almost 100% this year, although everyone says they're still the best companies). Because it's valuation is high PE, and it's ‘priced to perfection’ and any negative company news could make for a pullback, whereas there are undervalued things which are better, and there are defensive plays, and there still might be a pullback (although sentiment is that there won't), and there still might be a recession but they don't know when maybe second half.

    ...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfwUpftnvZs
    Tom Lee sounded a little bearish for the first time (since he did it briefly last December or something). Maybe industrials and financials in addition to Tech. S&P is up 13% meaning it's overbought, usually a sign of a strong market but also that it could react strongly to negative news. However, lots of people are calling this a top (so a pullback might be shallow).



  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 19,2023

  • ...



    ...



    Half the companies in Fla will cover $50k or $60k solar panels. While other companies are embracing it.

    ...



    ...

    There are going to be a lot of Chinese EVs in the US in coming years, and a lot cheaper. China also has rare earths.

    Can't really invest in these Chinese companies though, because China doesn't really care about US investors.

    ...



    Using Rico Act.

    “Using copyright infringment as the centerpiece of their business. Basically that their entire business is a fraud.”

    “Using a decentralized structure to plausibly redirect blame to third parties.”

    ...

    Still $5.5t on sidelines, $1t higher than at start of year, so still scepticism.

    ...

    Extreme silicon shortage today to a voltage transformer shortage in a year and then an electricity shortage in a year or two years. To run LOMs and other AI training. Musk suspects.

    ...

    US needs class-action lawsuit reform, said Musk. The ratio of good to bad class-actions against publicly traded companies is too large, and it ends up being a tax on consumers. Public corporations fear embarassment, etc.

    ...



    Any risk to stability?

    ...

    The $20,000 new car might not be possible from here-on. Car prices up. But lots of used car delinquincies, particularly sub prime auto loans (credit score 600 or below). Inventory building up as more supply comes. Consumer demand currently still strong. High interest rates, and so a lot of the new car sales were from the first half of this year. Some brands are doing well (Toyota, Kia, Honda) while others are struggling (and so have to reduce prices and incentivize).



    ...

    Limited supply and scarcity are not the same thing. Scarcity is when demand exceeds supply at the price of zero. - Ben McKenzie

    ...

    Inflation base effects. Inflation seems low right now. Bianco sees 3 or 4% inflation, and if real rates return to positive higher than 4%.


    ...

    Loan applications, rejection rates highest since 2013.

    People saying ‘Goldilocks’.

    Most people basically have been won over to soft landing thesis.

    ...

    China bond distress. These were the companies people were sure their bonds would be alright short term.

    ...

    July 19, first time I head an analyst mention Utilities. "More defensive equities now on sale Health Care and Utilites."
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 14,2023

  • ...


    He thinks 2% in 6-9months possible.

    ...






    ...

    Valuation ceilings

    Companies early reporting, doing fine, but their stocks didn't go up.

    ...

    Cash Stuffing Envelopes Money Trend is Going Viral - Should You Do it? - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 03,2023

  • Are banks becomming coopted to monitor people in ways IRS is prohibited from doing, the way social media and communication apps are used?
  • Airlines have de-commoditized. A seat is a seat is a seat, no longer. Customers have a choice. The premium market is up.
  • Nike and China

    Nike reported first miss in 3 years, and earnings were a bit higher in China than expected, causing some to feel more favorable about China reopening.
  • Because the Fed was late, inflation has gotten embedded in the Service Sector, and to treat inflation in the Service Sector via Interest Rate, you undermine the Goods Sector. - El-Erian

    Now the Fed has paused to keep optionality.

    El-Erian thinks if they change their 2% target to 3 or 4 percent, they can maintain this growth.
  • 3 distinct tech rallies so far.

    January effect, those stocks that vastly underperformed in 2022.

    March, investors maintained positions by selling financials and buying big market cap tech.

    March, April, May, Ai move, earnings expectation in tech sector.
     
  • The equity market is now 160% of USgdp. 40 years ago, the last time the US had this type of inflation problem, it was not even 40%. Wealth effect. It makes it more challenging for Fed to control inflation. - David Bianco

  • 1 in 50 jobs in the US has something to do with ports in LA. 1 in 9 jobs in Southern California.

    Investment in the south and east of the country is $11b to the west's $1b over the past several years. The west used to have 80% of shipping, now it's like 60%.

    One of the challenges they face is a railroad bottleneck, maybe now dealt with.

    He doesn't see a recession coming next year. Lots of products and also parts for US manufacture are coming in.

  • #1 reason people move is something changes, a job, a baby, and they need to move.

    House prices seem to be gaining a bit.

    Homebuilders are buying down mortgage rates, allowing buyers to not have that 6 or 7%, and instead they're buying into that 5% rate which gives them a year or two of cushion.
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 26,2023

  • “This is really a people business.”
  • We're several month in now, and still all the headlines are just like A.I. To Radically Change Future & NVDA Is Taking Us There, but still no story on any way AI will do anything productive

  • Some of this Fed versus talk this week.

  • Uber's model of private drivers was not legalized in Japan. Need a taxi licence. Lobbying. Backend pressure against taxi company owners who started to partner with Uber. Go grabs 70% of ridehailing market in Japan, and about 1/3 split between Uber and other rivals. Uber is popular with tourists in Japan, and tourism has recently seen a big influx.

    Uber lost out to local players in China and SEAsia also. Skorea had its own app, lobbying so laws only allowed Uber to be used by people with a taxi license. Uber has done well in Latam.
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 17,2023
  • Tom Lee, Gormond at MorganStanley, feel economy (earnings) has bottomed.

    10% of the S&P are making 52-week highs, highest since April 2022. Average 14-day RSIs are at about 60 (normal is 50), highest since summer 2022, which means the average stock is in breakout mode. Russel is performing. - Josh Brown

    Interest rates are peaking (maybe 2 more 25basisPoint hikes left, but market sort of seems to not think so).

    Income growth remains high at 5-6 percent. Unemployment low.

    Manufacturing is growing a bit. Housing seems to be rebounding a bit.

    Regional banks are picking up their lending - Bob Elliott

    Gundlach said that although jobs were up, hours worked were somewhat down. He also thinks that be cause Fed went 25 50 75 50 25 and this time 0, they're unlikely to bounce. But they're basically projecting two more 25 point hikes (and perhaps break something).

  • Taxpayers to pay $1t ?
  • Japan has been cheap, but there's also structural earnings growth opportunity, said Carl Vine. In the last decade, Japanese EPS has grown about 10% compound, beating the S&P, and it could do the same for the next decade. Plus dividend, buybacks, reratings. Might go down short term because it's gone up so much in the past month, but for the next few years there could be big returns.
  • $70 is the new $50 as a breakeven point for oil prices - Kate Richard
  • NY offices reaches 50% of pre-pandemic occupancy (regular rate is around 70%).

    In SF, famous brands/malls are pulling out due to crime.
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 13,2023




  • Investopedia: "Lowest level of pessimism seen in 2023"

    Lots of people talking about FOMO bull market possibly starting. Technical bull market started yesterday.

    The first part of the year, it was just 5 tech stocks. But recently it's 'broadening out', some think. Russel2000 is an indicator for this (that little move upward at the very end).


     

  • Just the idea of tops and bottoms.




  • Money market funds.


  • Rent booms.



  • Overpriced versus underpriced.

  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 11,2023
  • China exports down more than expected (phones and garnments). To all trading partners down, except Russia way up (lots of energy trade).

    Weak global demand.
  • GM will also use Tesla charging standard. Ford announced it would do this 2 weeks ago.
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 04,2023
  • Luxury stocks fall as concerns grow about consumer spending - YouTube 
  • How Congress Gets Rich from Insider Trading - YouTube 

  • Stocks just 23% of portfolio. In preservation mode.
  • Some cities seeking a spike in evictions, and in empty rental locations.

    Investors aren't buying properties, which could bring prices back down for regular buyers. Mortgage rate (7%) is higher than the cap rate (4.6%), so if you buy with debt (most investors do) you're losing money on a property investment bought in the past few months. And cash is paying 4 or 5%.

    But he thinks people will float their losses, thinking the economy will improve (everyone's talking about this), and the only thing that would trigger investment and owner property sales is significant unemployment rate.

    Blackrock has STOPPED BUYING HOMES (2023 Firesale Coming?) - YouTube 

  • Probably his most important market

  • It costs too much to hold a barrel of oil. You make too much money if you just hold cash. Prices would have to go up in equities to make it worthwhile holding a barrel of oil.

    IEA has raised oil demand forcasts every month since last November.
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 01,2023
  • Tesla's Model Y becomes world's first best-selling EV car - YouTube 
  • May, 2023
  • May 30,2023
  • Japanese companies seeing interest from foreign investors for first time in a long time. Fundamentals are there, but there is also good performance and low valuations. A lot has to do with people just don't/didn't understand the companies.
  • Fitch placed US on Rating Watch Negative (might be downgraded from AAA)

  • Former AG Barr backs DeSantis in Disney battle - YouTube 

  • No one knows how to value NVDA now. It had been up from its lows over 100% already, and today they guided higher and after hours it went up 25% or 30%. All their competitors didn't impress with their reports, but NVDA showed it has ‘all the picks and shovels’ in this current AI goldrush.

    People had rated it around or below where it was before the report, and didn't know whether they would have to downgrade or raise their forecast.

    It opened at like 27% up and went to like 25% up. Everyone talking about their quarter.

  • May, 2023
  • May 24,2023

  • Small and medium sized businesses who aren't eligible (often) to meet the lending requirements at the banks. Because the businesses are more complicated, they don't have the rigorous reporting that a larger public company might have.

    The work that goes into making these loans is considerable, more complex, you have to get collateral, even private personal collateral. More personalized lending.
  • AI companies that will be valuable will be those that have a valuable dataset (the AI itself less so).

    Bigger, existing companies who already understand well their domain, will be advantaged compared with smaller startup companies. The enterprise will eat their lunch.

    These datasets, the companies didn't appraise them as highly before this tool came to show how well it could use these big datasets.

    People are now locking down their datasets (Google Analytics?). Before, they would make them public, allow Google Search to use them because that meant traffic for them.

    So far, even according to the Databricks CEO, chatbots seem the #1 use. Also analyzing customer data (medical records, ‘anonymously’) to find patterns. In insurance, there a long piles of papers to sign, but how does that apply to a particular case, and that can be asked. Also in finding sentiment about a product.

  • May, 2023
  • May 22,2023
  • China bans Micron chips from Taiwan (for government purposes)

    META fined record-breaking $1.3b for not complying with EU data privacy laws (Facebook continued to transfer data from European accounts to US servers). META seemed unaffected or barely.

    META made a $39b in 2021 and $23b in 2022 profit (revenue for 2022 was like $115b). They had been investing in metaverse also.



    Accepting basically any cargo. Might get ‘worse’ than GFC. Boom-bust cycle, pricing had gone up a lot. Capacity has gone up also. It's easy to start a trucking company. There's no moat. It's very accessible.

    Freight market might be 6-month forcast of broader market. (So slowing more than what is recognized.) People are not buying as many goods, anecdotally.

    Banks control new entrants into economy (new businesses). Banks slowing lending might not be good for broad economy, but might be good for trucking economy.
  • May, 2023
  • May 20,2023
  • Why Rich People Buy Raw Land - YouTube 
  • Why Oil Is In A Multi-Year Bull Market | Interview With Eric Nuttall - YouTube 
  • "Why would a politician use very scarce tax dollars to go rebuy oil, send the price up, increase inflationary pressures on the Fed ... There's a very strong correlation between gasoline price and presidential approval ratings. ... We do not expect any politician to refill that reserve ever." - Eric Nuttall

    Others expect US will begin to refill the SPR soon, given the strike price (they buy at a fixed price).

    Biden used the strategic reserve of gas (which was supposed to be for emergencies) for political reasons, to get the price at the pump down. - Rafi Tahmazian

    Putin cut off gas to Europe. They panicked (logically) and bought gas from everywhere they could for exorbitant prices. And they had a warm winter and didn't need it so much.

    China shut down and this cut 1.3m bpd from demand (3%).

    Things that cooled the energy market. It cooled inflation. A softer landing.

     
  • May, 2023
  • May 18,2023
  • Sideways, no trend for entire market. Which companies and which sectors are trending?

    Jim Bianco thinks inflation will bottom for the year in the next 60 days, because there's a large base effect coming with the inflation numbers. Last year may was .9, June 1.2. When we replace those with .4, we should be in the low 3's for inflation numbers by July (when we get the June number), and then start drifting higher.

    Most people are employed by companies under 500 employees, and those companies rely on small and medium sized banks. If those banks are impaired in giving them financial services or loans, that is going to chip away at the economy. And those banks are currently unsure about their deposits and their ability to give loans.

    He expects a post-Pandemic economy, with an inflation rate of 3 or 4%. It has more friction and pricing problems.

    Walmart revenues are up, but they're customers are also up. More wealthy shoppers are turning to less expensive options because they just can't/don't want to pay for what they get elsewhere.


  • What companies bigger companies want to buy these days are, no question, business services, said Sinha Haldea. Anything where there's an automation mode for something.
     
    Also generative old school businesses (generate regular income). Products.
  • May, 2023
  • May 17,2023
  • Bears turning bullish

    Maybe the old guard of investors is retired, and the new guard looks though everything, since the market goes up 90% of the time. Why play for the 10%?
  • Hollywood writers strike have for years been working more and receiving less, so the fight is a warranted one this time, some say.

    They are just 1 of the 3 unions.

    Netflix still doesn't have sports. ESPN and DIS do. So not attracting big advertisers in the same way.
  • New house builds

    Costs of building are still high, and some areas are not desirable to own in.

    New listings down 40% some places over last year. People aren't upsizing. Mortgage rate effect also.

    Detached homes, even luxury homes, are selling quickly, compared with like condos.
     
    In a regular housing market, there's no negative amortization like there is now, where the cost doesn't even cover the interest on the mortgage. So it'll be after that plays out that we might see a change (sellers, capitulation).
  • MMFs down versus ETFs, because people want to sell their MMFs which is bringing them down relatively.
  • Lending (who is doing it?) is being done with high rates of return for the lender.
  • May, 2023
  • May 16,2023
  • Top 2 companies for engineers wanting to work, once again, Tesla and SpaceX.

    Tesla gets like 3.5m applications per year (not sure if that's all engineers)
  • May, 2023
  • May 15,2023
  • At some point you're gonna deplete your cash (using credit cards instead), the movement of money out of deposits into MMFs will complete - Tony Dwyer

    When there's availability of money you're a permabull, and when there's not, like now, you just wanna stay on the sidelines.
  • Apple bigger than entire Russell2000 ($2.7t)
  • Binance pulled out of Canada
  • May, 2023
  • May 13,2023
  • "Imagine if SF was a city of 6m people, or 9m people. Think about the glomeration effects. Think about the depth of industry that could be developed. Having a lab and a manufacturing facility and everything  be in driving distance, maybe even the same building." - Samo Burja


  • Some are selling below asking, but not many. But it's not like during the pandemic when people were getting above asking price.
  • Authorities saying the banking problem (in Sweden now at SBB after they soldoff at a loss an asset to raise cash) is due to depositors wanting higher yield on their deposits (since MFFs give like 5% apparently in US), and short sellers.

    However, if banks are selling off assets at losses, which is like the thing they definitely don't want to ever do, is is just a case of shortsellers speculating, or something actually being there?

    Why can't banks pay more for deposits (temporarily)? Why are they unable to do this? Funds are available to banks as long as they have collateral. They may have to pay a bit more than they want to to depositors but they don't have to lose them.


     
  • May, 2023
  • May 11,2023

  • Eurodollar U chart

    "Deflationary money is the interruption in the natural or necessary flow of money in currency through the economy. It's NOT rate hikes."

    It makes even minimal economic activity that much harder. It can lead to a deflationary economy.

    A deflationary economy is joblessness going up.


  • More people are putting basics like groceries on credit cards.

    CC rates are higher than ever, 20.5%, in accordance with the FedFunds rate.

    Groceries are more expensive.
  • Blackrock. Asset management. A top 3 holder in 99% of US-listed names. It should, therefore, look like the S&P, but it doesn't. It has departed and is heading down relative to the S&P. Why?

    Goldman and MorganStanley. Brokerages.
     



  • To insure ALL deposits. Normally FDIC just insures up to $250k. $15.8b is the cost of doing so.
  • May, 2023
  • May 09,2023
  • BRK's insurance part is up.

    Everything in the economy is worth more, and so insurance value is up.
  • Banks are loaning less, so family offices are stepping in to do loans

    Double digit returns.

    A whole new class of investors are filling the space.

  • Now we watch the delinquency cycle. We've already seen some defaults in auto loans.

    Real estate to watch.
  • May, 2023
  • May 08,2023
  • Americans asking if they will in 5 years have 4 or 5 'basically government institutions' banks, like Canada or Australia

    They have thousands of local banks. And they have 4 or 5 giant banks. So why do people go to the small regional banks?

    Is it just 'romance'? Is it 'nostalgia for pioneer days'?
  • When you hike rates, you reduce production.

    To decrease inflation, you need more inflation, to balance supply and demand. Some say.
  • Energy companies have been returning capital to shareholders, and some people want them to do even more of that. US has a lot of gas and oil for now, but there should be some more production, but how can energy companies really invest a lot in that if the government is stymieing projects?

  • May, 2023
  • May 07,2023
  • Buffet described the float, the amount of cash that comes in through their insurance business, like we have a bank with no customers, no employees, and nobody can pull their deposits out.
  • What gives you opportunities, even in a market where 'everyone is making less' is people doing dumb things (overbuying or overselling)
  • Bank clients with lots of Twitter followers may be understood as higher-risk clients.
  • Will bank consolidation lead to higher prices? (less competition)
  • Fintech has taken the easier part of banking away, possibly.
  • Signature Bank was already on the 'red list' for dabbling in crypto and not responding to regulatory requests. 90% of its deposits were not insured.

    FR was wealthy clientelle. These are the type of depositors who will most quickly withdraw funds in signs of problems. (These deposits are not insured.)

    Non-sticky or sensitive deposits.
    Faster growth is difficult for banks.

    Regional banks, concentration, may be less sticky than more national banks.






    Biggest-losing banks in 8-9the decile. Not the smallest banks. Also the fastest-growing recently were more recently the fastest-losing (stickiness?).


     
  • SVB is a start-up bank 10 years ago. It's niche grew during that period.

    But it was just SF and just tech, mostly. Those people were a circle of people (virally connected), so they talk and act together. (A broader, more disconnected 'society' rather than 'community' provides stability through disconnection/slow diffusion/disagreement.) Also younger, wealthier (contrast with the responses of older, poorer clientele.) 

    In 2021 deposits doubled (VC was under threat, putting money to side, more down rounds, less willingness to invest in new tech (which was also very overpriced), so they deposited this money instead). I wonder about examples of conversations that took place deciding what to do with that money and why? If the CEO decided to ignore the risk of rising rates (is it possible he didn't have access to knowledge that was a possibility?), what was he thinking was going to be a better attitude with their cash?

    Future deposits would be even higher?
    SVB invested (like 60% of their holdings) in longer term bonds to get 1 or 1.5%, which was more than 0 that they would have got from short term bills.

    They had to sell in 2022 to raise cash, but this plan leaked (most virally connected depositor base) and there was a run (fast because done on their phones).


     

  • Almost always requires a macro crisis for people to know there are bad banks.

    Recessions test banks because more people default collectively. Banks without buffers can fail. They have to sell assets to get their money back to cover withdrawals.

    Banks 'should' loan against earning power of assets, but banks frequently instead loan against the 'value' of the assets. Asset classes become overvalued, and the banks loan on that value, and that corrects.
     
  • New refineries in US, is something Kevin O'Leary is pursuing

    Ones that cost a few billion (under EPA threshold so doesn't have to deal with them). Says he can do it in about 3 states. On a bipartisan basis. The states will contribute towards the feasibility studies, and Oleary will fund the debt and the equities on a sovereign wealth basis.

    His headline project is for $14b.
  • You don't have a totally broad improving economy. You have winners and losers. Tech sector up more that 20%. Banks down, consumer.

    Some think the strong performing ones will lead, but Carter Worth said that never happens. The weak ones are telling the real story and the strong ones ultimately succumb. (Why?)

    The market has had a lot thrown at it to the downside (banks, geopolitical), and hasn't really gone down. But it hasn't gone up yet either, and can't without real earnings growth or multiple expansion, Worth said.

    The market has gone up or down 15% for 2 years.
     
  • May, 2023
  • May 05,2023
  • SingleB and higher, almost exclusively, for bonds. - Gundlach, on the 'unusual' current market (he's in Europe, and warming to EM like Asia-X-China and parts of Latam.
  • "What good is a debt ceiling that isn't a ceiling? What good is a cap on insurance that isn't really a cap?" - Gundlach

    They've raised the debt ceiling almost 98 times in its 106 years.

    It's basically unlimited.
  • Gundlach thinks 'they raised rates too slowly. And the fact that they have to leave them high now for a long time ... is not good for the banking system. The short rates are so high above the bank rates.'
     
    "People leaving their money in banks when they're getting half what they would with MMFs is nonsensical."
  • May, 2023
  • May 04,2023
  • US weaponizing the reserve currency USD against Russia (this is not Iran or Venezuela. This is Russia.), gave a pretext many were looking for, and galvanized different countries into a solidary movement.
     
    Saudis can transact in Yuan and hedge with gold.

    Or a BRICS basket of currencies.

    And the USD became too expensive.
  • "The Fed needs inflation to inflate away debt." - Piepenburg

    They need it higher than the 10year. They want to debase the currency.

    Wall Street socialism. By the Fed. The 10% get 90% of inflation in risk assets. It gets politicians elected. It's completely distorted capitalism, because we don't have natural supply and demand. Fed directed.
  • Talk (blame) of 'the shortsellers' began in earnest today

    Their plan is very clear. Push a bank over the brink. Find another one.
     
    Talk of a (temporary) ban on short selling.
  • Bank supervision should be taken from the Fed, says Brookings' Aaron Klein - YouTube 
  • The recession coming might not solve the banking problem, but rather exacerbate (compound) it - Marenzi

    They have severe pressure in terms of their net interest margins. People pulling out funds, so they have to find other funding, but people are unwilling to put their money there. People want 3, 4, 5% return on their money.

    One good point. Loan quality has remained high. Defaults are low. That would come under fire in a recession.
  • Investors can't buy the dip in bank stocks (speculatively down 30 or 40% for some) because they haven't published their losses to market, so you can't read their book value really.

    You have to read between the lines, and read the footnotes.

    Shareholders in the big banks that have gone bankrupt have lost all their investments. So you can see why people might be reluctant to hold stock in others.
  • Banks are being used as weapons of destruction, says Janney's Christopher Marinac - YouTube 
  • TD pulled back on buying FH.

    "They really have their pick of the bunch. If you're in the market to pick up a regional bank, you should wait."

    Moral hazard. People waiting for receivership. There's no auction.
  • Stock price drops for banks that are similar, perceptually, to those that have already failed this year.

    Investors are looking for banks that appear most similar. These banks have not announced any problems.
     
  • May, 2023
  • May 03,2023
  • JPM got a great deal, but was it a good deal for the banking sector?

    The signal was that you shouldn't buy a distressed bank. Don't offer help. Wait for it to go bankrupt and then pick out the parts you want. If BearSterns at $2 was a good deal, this is an even better deal. Some say.


  • Treasury bond data signals deficit is quickly increasing, says Damped Springs Advisors' Andy Constan - YouTube 
  • Politically independent Central Banks are crucial to the good running of the economy. - El-Erian

    And without accountability, you don't get politically independent Central Banks.

    Transitory inflation call was false. It means not just short -term, but also that people don't change their behavior.

    Communications were a mistake. The inconsistent message during press conferences caused like 3x volatility in markets.

    Why did it get inflation so wrong? and why did it stall so late to do something about inflation (the EU and others did that), and why did they not tell the public why they didn't get that right.

    We give them enormous power. They're the only public agency that doesn't have to go to Congress to make a decision.They can inject $7t if they want. Or if they want to cut interest rates. It's critical they have that autonomy though, El-Erian said, for their acting.

  • How many institutions or Central Banks have invested in Bitcoin? Van Eck said none he knows.
  • Post Ukraine 2022, people don't trust the US not to take their money through sanctions.

    De-dolarization movement. They'll use more of the other things. Not a major call but a trend for sure.
  • Commercial banks are lending less, said Jan Van Eck. More alternative lending.

    They're so fragile. It's like, if you need the Central Government to bail you out, is the Central Government going to be a reliable backstop? The government is political about it. Oh we don't like Crypto. Oh you're a crypto bank? Oh Credit Suisse, you've messed up one too many times on your risk management or whatever, and you've upset the Swiss government. I'm not going to bail you out, but I will for UBS.

    The government has not explained objective criteria, or who they bail out and who they don't.

    Why is this bank getting a bailout while this other one isn't?

    Central Banks were created because literally no banks can survive a run on deposits (everyone tries to withdraw on the same day).
     
    Should banks be making loans? After GFC and Dodd Frank, we said well Big Banks should not be making risky loans. Now they only loan like 60cents on each dollar or something.
  • May, 2023
  • May 02,2023
  • $13b is what First Republic will cost the FDIC insurance fund (taxpayer?), reportedly.

    First Republic might have been 'the one JPM wanted all along.'

    All these banks now have stock prices down 30 or 40%. How can they be looking to make a bunch of loans now?



  • Ponzi-like, it said. Fund down 16%.

  • Liquidity crisis in banking. Inflation of prices.
  • Difficult for banks (who lend to people so are subject to slowdown in spending) in this economy, so benefit goes to non-bank financials (insurance)

    Mutual funds et all have to have access to financials. If not to banks, where do they go?
  • "There's always judgement involved in monetary policy. It's not a precise science."
  • May 10 Google product development conference

    Seen recently to have fallen behind MSFT, just because of MSFT's splashy product opening with ChatGPT. Will Sundar be an aggressive downtimes CEO, analysts are asking, as was Nadela and Zuckerberg?

    Pichai has been seen as cautious, not splashy. Recently he did 60 Minutes and talked about AI dangers. (This could also mean that future understanding once the common reaches the in-circle will turn more towards Google's stance).
     

  • Smaller, low-cost companies had been doing better, but now with inflation costs bigger ones seem to be doing better.
     

  • That means institutional investors aren't going to be made whole. They are now fourth on the list of creditors to be paid out, after depositors, general unsecured creditors, and subordinated debt. They have to go to the FDIC and file a claim for their investment. Likelihood of getting their money back is unlikely, reportedly.

    This is because instead of JPM buying FR, they waited until after the FDIC seized FR and then they bought FR's assets (some, not all, ie not their debt) from the FDIC.

    Also a way for the bank to surpass the 10% of the market short deposits limit (anti-trust regulation). "It was the only thing that could be done."
     
    Dimon said JPM only switched from being an advisor to FR to being its buyer only after the government asked it to step up, so it wasn't an 'entirely private deal.' The deal also had a $50b line of credit and a loss-sharing agreement with the FDIC (FDIC will bear 80% of credit losses on FR's mortgages and commercial loans).

    The FDIC sold FR (its assets) a bit cheap, financed with this loan, and made attractive with attractive regulatory treatment. This will effect not just moving the problem to another bank, leaving the banking system as shaky as before, its instead reducing the risk, in the banking system. Otherwise, JPM would have offered less money, and the FDIC would have had a bigger cost to its insurance fund than $14b.


  • May, 2023
  • May 01,2023
  • 3 banks have gone out of business. That's 'systemic.'

    Fed raised rates which simultaneously reduced the value of small banks existing holdings (treasuries, auto loans, mortgages, student loans), while raising the cost for the banks of having their deposits. - Dick Bove

    "At some point you cross the two lines." You've driven the cost of gathering funds to a level at which the yield on existing assets cannot pay for it, and that forces banks out of business. (SNL, and current)




  • In another vid, El Erian talked about how good it was for JPM, although it doesn't increase their already massive profits (although it will, like 500m to 1b, increase it a bit). FR has a bunch of rich clients, and it has the best customer experience going. Plus they buy it at just a bit more than they would have lost if it had collapsed.
  • Starting July, 'artificially high prints' because of such a high base. Even if disinflation is working harder. Whereas before it was the opposite YoY effect.
  • In housing market, some say employment is always more important than rates, so we might just now start to see this affected, despite rates having been up for a while, because jobless claims might now start.
     
    Job postings are down 10% YoY.

    Before, builders didn't have labor, but now they have labor, so they might build through all the new homes, and then shed perhaps a million labor jobs there.

    ABNB demand has come off. Supply situation is out of control. No caps put on how many homes could be put out short term rentals. "30% of this city's rentals are vacant." That doesn't last forever. Especially people with a bunch of ABNBs with mortgages. Pent up supply. Coming online. Redfin showed first rent YoY decline in years.
  • Will companies that have to refinance in the current couple years decline to do so, while companies that have to refinance in 5 or so years all do so (assuming rates go back down by then)?
  • Market to market comparison, in VC

    2 unicorns worth $2b, and the one that SPAC'd 2 years ago, its value would have collapsed in 2022, while the one that stayed private is still sitting pretty because it's illiquid and it's value can't be looked up.
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 25,2023

  • Banks have been stuffed with treasuries because the government has pumped out a lot after the pandemic, and the Fed has bought them ($5 or 6t on its balance sheet). It's selling those to the banking system because it wants to unwind its balance sheet.

    Treasuries are considered 'zero risk.'
     
    These are subject to big moves when Fed changes rates. Huge amounts move around, and everyone can see this on their phone.

    Government is sort of insuring that these treasuries, which are now worth 60 or 70 cents, are still worth a dollar.

    Our solutions are the problem. Short term steps. The myth of fiscal and monetary levers, when we're never willing to restrain during good times. We only splurge during bad times.

    Possibly moving toward a blue collar economy. Stimulus is there, onshoring, plant building, engineering and construction with the government behind it.


  • "When you raise rates so fast, you're going to impose losses on the bond market, and who's going to bear those losses? Insurance companies and banks. Then you have to bail them out."

    "They have 'all the tools' but the tools were not very sharp."

    "Clearly put a lot of softness in the banks, particularly regional banks, which are the ones who lend to small and medium sized enterprises. The bread and butter of the economy. ... They see deposits flowing out, and they don't want to make loans. If they make loans and then deposits flow out, they have to sell securities and then they make losses. The first thing they do is not make new loans, and then probably they divest securities where they can (slowly).
     
    This banking system doesn't work at 4% rates, he said. That would be all their profits.
  • "Are we going to see a significant transfer of wealth from shareholders to depositors, because depositors now have the ability to go to Apple and get 4.25%?" - Steve Aoki lookalike on CNBC

  • Debt to gdp

    Cost of servicing debt.
  • Where will we get boosts in production?

    If we don't, it's another reason for stickier inflation.

    Some say AI will increase productivity 30%, but how?
  • China is no longer that exporter of deflation it used to be

    Population decline. Increasingly an expensive place to do business, causing companies to leave.
  • Commercial real estate is a dominant asset that regional banks own

    Does higher rates for longer translate into more credit issues?

  • Away from Globalisation toward fragmentation. Security in food, energy, etc. But what does that cost (to onshore these products)? This might be the right thing for national security.

  • What is the relationship between Buffet and Japanese banks?

    No one knows exactly. A commodity play? The banks have low PE but are overpriced, according to Mobius.
  • Declerating growth + rising inflation
     
    Stocks have gone nowhere for 2 years.


  • Up 10%. Surprise. Despite rates going up to 7% at that point. But builders are using incentives to sell, especially mortgage rate buydowns.

    Prices still up YoY 3%. Supply is dropping.
  • LVMH first Euro company to pass $500b value

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 24,2023
  • Commercial banks, deposits dropping.

    Fed behind scenes doing QT. The reserves base that all deposits and broad money are built on declining.

  • continued, Jeff Snyder


    We're also seeing a lot of hedging.



  • Liquidity characteristics of what banks are holding. Massive buying of bonds yesterday, not seen since 2008 he said. Because cash isn't fungible in a way that T-bills are. When you're borrowing against assets you want those assets to be as close to risk-free as possible, otherwise the lender doesn't want to.

    In the big global economy there isn't enough collateral to go around.

    A hedge fund chasing yield doesn't want T-bills. They want EM high risk, but to buy them they using the repo market, but you can't go to the repo market with these highrisk junk bonds assets to get a loan. You won't get the rates you want to get. You need something really secure. So you go to a money dealer and swap your junk bonds for the T-bills of someone he knows (an insurance company or pension fund). They lend them out for a small spread. So you're already multiplying collateral. A single T-bill might be securing multiples of these financing trades. "These re-use and re-pledge chains."
     
    Then look at derivatives, which nowadays may be more likely even than the repo markets as the cause of the problem.

    More and more, financial participants are being forced to do the same things at the same times because of the systemic conditions. Now, pay high levels of premiums for T-bills when there's problems in the collateral marketplace.
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 20,2023
  • Tesla may have 'initiated an EV price war'
  • Goods (autos, food) are being cut back on, but the consumer is still spending on services, travel, etc, keeping inflation going.
  • Recession is probably starting right now, say some.

    Tesla and a few others dropped on displeasing earnings reports (although others are up on theirs).

    NASDAQ


    S&P, and this week in the S&P


  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 12,2023

  • Palm oil. No alternative currently?

     
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 10,2023
  • Flight to safety (lots of people doing this) might be a cost in the long term.

    But still too early to invest in high yield. Spreads haven't widened to compensate for current risk. We do see double risk of default in smaller for next 6 months. The pool is smaller.


  • APPL says PC demand will go down 40%, and drops shipments

    APPL has a huge percentage of global phones, and people waiting to buy and show off their new purchase. But last year or two most tech news talks about their low quality laptops (differentiated from high quality years ago) and spyware phones (differentiated from perceived secure phones years ago). The general public doesn't know or care about these items though. But piece by piece the tech knowledge seems to be filtering over to them.

    Job report shows unemployment not near where Fed wants it to be, increasing chance of 25pt hike.

    WFC says might be worst earnings season in years. Everyone watching earnings for some info on what commercial real estate (watching bank earnings for this) is doing.


    A lot of these commercial real estate mortgages have clauses saying your interest has to be under a certain ratio. When your interest rate quadruples, all of a sudden you're no longer under those caps. So it's much harder to refinance, and at the same time banks are holding cash more dear.


     
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 09,2023

  • And money transfer services.
  • The northern third of Italy, where half the population lives, that's more technologically advanced then Japan. In output per hour of work, it's more productive than northern Germany. - Zeihan
     
    But that part requires lots of energy to do so.
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 08,2023

  • Q1 flows (flight to safety because of expectations of recession and lower earnings reports coming)

    Fixed income and International ETFs lots of inflows. Companies that are developed well there like Nestle. But now, shifting toward US ETFs again.

    There was flow out of US ETFs (only $3.5b) which is unusual, and despite US market up 7%.
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 07,2023
  • Right now it's banks, then it'll be earnings, then liquidity in maybe June - Mike Wilson
     
    Debt ceiling debate this summer.

    'Because they've tried to alchemy out some of these sort of economic downturns, we might find ourselves where all the chickens come home to roost. In an inflationary manner, because they can't use the same playbook to take interest rates down, and we end up in a stagflationary environment. - Dan

    The banks are not operating as fluidly.


  • 'The U.S. labor market is undoubtedly the strongest pillar of the U.S. economy today': Strategist
  • Jobs report

    Showed a bit of increased supply or workers and tightening of hiring. Increased participation by men, which is considered important because much job growth had been just by women entering the labor force.
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 06,2023
  • In second half, industry analysts expect earnings to go up and economist consensus is earnings will go down.
  • Something like $4.5b(?) might go into Money Market funds.
  • Small businesses depend on small banks.

    Minorities depend on minority banks.

    Deciding who gets he loans.
  • Bad news being bad news.
  • The Fed should have understood that you can't raise rates so fast - Zingales

    ... because when you do, you impose losses in the bond market, and who's going to bear those losses? Insurance companies? Then you have to bail them out. Banks? Then you have to bail them out. Unless the losses are among us, the investors, then something happens.

    'Complacent.'
    Admati: 'Where does ability to absorb losses come from if not from investors like every other company?' If SVB had more ability to absorb losses it would have absorbed those losses.

    'You can build your equity by retaining your earnings, and you'll have plenty of money to lend. Just make a worthy investment.'

    'A heavily indebted borrower, especially if the creditors are not putting putting tough conditions on you, like depositors don't, you love always borrowing more and more.'


    Funding with equity instead of debt, and also instead of all these fancy debt securities that magically will absorb losses.'

    The reserves is a completely different language and it's just confusing you to call it 'capital' and not to call it just 'equity funding'.


     
  • Where do you get beta now?

    You don't want beta. - Chris Harvey (you want to preserve capital)

    Earnings is not going to be favorable.

    WFC didn't predict recession but now do, after SVB etc.

    More regulation.
  • A great stock pickers market

    Trans Oceans, Winn Resors, Cleavland Cliffs.

    Earnings estimates revised better.


  • Patience

    a word making appearances
  • Chinese economy will look a bit different in upcoming, because it's not investment led, but rather pentup demand driven.

    Will bene parts of Asia, Brazil, other EM.

    Employment and consumer confidence (because of employment), will require patience.
     
    Regulation has been headwind, but will now be tailwind - Efstathopoulos
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 05,2023
  • Central banks everywhere are buying gold

    Rus, India, China, everyone is thinking to not depend so much on USD.
  • Expect USD to be in a multi-year bear market - someone
  • Since 1996, gold and S&P have both done average 6.8% per year
  • CPI is at 6. Fed Funds is at 480.

    Historically, Fed has never stopped a tightening cycle before CPI was below Fed Funds.


  • It's not just the economy the Fed cares about (so even if we get weak data they will continue to be hawkish). They care about full employment and stable pricing. - Adam Parker

    Jobs and CPI are not where they want, so if they get dovish now "I'd be surprised."
  • Fed will get above 5% and stay there until something breaks in a way that they can't ignore. - David Lebovitz


  • Business models in AI (content)?

  • Dollar has gone down in past days and in past month. Means dollar holders don't believe the Fed can tighten much. - Komal Sri Kuma

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 04,2023
  • 'I think Jamie's wrong. I think we're going into a serious recession.' - Sternlicht

    The government has a massive deficit, and they keep feeding the deficit. That forces rates higher because too much supply of paper to pay for the deficit. Receipts are going down because capital gains are going away. Real estate as a complex, values are down. ... So receipts are going down, and interest rates are going up. The deficit will grow and he'll have to print more paper, and that should force rates up. That should make the economy weaken further. He's going to have to lower.
  • Europe has outperformed US in 1 year and 3 years, on some economic chart
  • Shadow Banking (middle market and credit lenders) will step up to fill void of banks not being able to loan - Bruce Richards

    Best lending environment in a generation. 12 - 14% on direct lending. (The base rate has moved up from 0 to 5%, and spreads are then spread off of that 5%.)

    There are 300 banks in the US that will need to raise capital ,won't be able to, and will have to sell down assets. Meanwhile, deposit outflow will continue in waves.

    Weaker equity prices for regional banks. Fed will provide liquidity, it has tools from 08, so there won't be a liquidity crisis.
  • SA is basically the new Silicon Valley - JB


  • The market is still confused

  • The Apple and MSFT market.

     
  • "Saudi Arabia has become the dominant player and is now setting the rules." - Danil Sereda

    "odds of another quarter-point hike at the next meeting on May 3 have increased from 48% to 57%"

    "how the rise in oil prices will affect CPI expectations. Richard Excell writes in his recent newsletter that the same corn that is tied to oil prices through U.S. ethanol policy should also expect to move higher - a rise in food and energy prices will perhaps change expectations for CPI to fall further"
     
    "They saw the price action in March where you had a 17% selloff followed by a 12% rally, and realized the market had succumbed to financial market players dictating price action, and price action moving away from fundamentals, and more to financial instruments (short sellers dictated action, and the Saudis have repeatedly said they don't like short sellers). And they really didn't like that. - Babin

    The surprise would have reminded shortsellers and others that they (fundamentals) are in charge.


    If price spikes above $100, that is not good for SA (because it reduces demand) or for US.

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 03,2023
  • 'OPEC put' in the market now

    They've revealed their hand. They want prices around $90 ($95 Sanky said) and would be fine with $100.

    SA did this to offset the decline in prices expected because of recession. They just brought the price up to where is was 2 months ago.
     
    Negative for refiners. They've been outperforming in the energy space. Good for service companies, Shlumberger, Baker Hughes.

  • Managed money future division (hedge funds and CTAs) got extraordinarily short leading up to last week (a buy signal) (to SA this was a good time to squeeze the market back up to where they want it), plus the banking crisis (which was the impetus for the funds getting short), and the Biden admin selling SPR barrels out for the last year.

    So the admin could have bought these barrels back as they said they would, but kind of balked at the deal, and SA might have been sending a signal to the market with this (true surprise) move.
     

  • Decade ago it would have been the US, but now SA stepped in and made the call.

    Swing player will be SA and Russia, not US, said guy.
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 01,2023
  • Should you lean into a bear market rally that you know is fleeting? "Absolutely not," he said.


    But some think tech will continue to outperform. 4325 for first half, said Ross ...


  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 31,2023
  • Most Trustworthy Companies in America 2023 
  • So much global capital has gone into US markets there might not be that much more to come in, so a small investment elsewhere can really move the needle.

    Structural pivots. Often what was scarce was then so heavily invested in in the last decade is currently abundant, and what was ignored for a 5-year investment cycle is now undersupply and there's opportunity there. In the 90s tech got overinvested, so when it turned things that were not tech (and were uninvested) got growth. Money poured into commodities, energy, etc. And then tech started to become interesting again in the 2010s. Everyone was in EM-commodity-real estate complex.

    We've overbuilt and overvalued cloud and tech. We have tons in the marketplace. But we're not heavily invested in copper mines, EM infrastructure, supply chains, hard assets, manufacturing. There's scarcity in real sectors.

    Cadence software, moved from software to subscription (stickier, more profitable), but everyone already knows it's a good company.

    Commodities don't often do well, but when they do, they often do very well. When stocks and bonds are both going down, commodities often go up.
     

  • Tech has a long runway of expected future growth, generally prefer deflationary environments with low interest rates, because of the low cost of capital and you can afford a long runway (10 to 15 years), let that compound.

    Energy and financials, inflationary environment, higher rates and higher cost of capital.

    To sell winners and buy losers, you need a thesis for why that's likely to change. Depends on cycles, rotating into things. Systematic framework to monitor it.


    Don't gauge for one year. Rarely in one year is valuation the primary factor. It's sentiment and fund flows and liquidity conditions and tactical things like that. For one year, look at trading indicators and flows. The following chart shows 5 years, but longer amplifies this.


    EM inverse correlation with USD, because they have $dol denominated debt (not to US mostly but Japan, Europe, China), so if USD strengthens their liabilities get harder.

    There's really only been 3 cycles in USD

     
  • Bury tweeted he was wrong to have said 'sell'
  • Look at companies that have earnings and have earnings growth, and have free cash flow

  • Strategists who were asked

  • No longer flashing red, now flashing yellow, in economic warnings, said El-Erian

    Moving from liquidity to capital, and from financial contagion to economic contagion.

    Will play out probably in the Q3 and 4, and play out over years.

    Trust was restored in banking after recent event.

    "When you have a lapse of supervision, the risks of fragility are very large."
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 30,2023
  • Market getting a bit complacent on what we can see for the rest of this year as we start to see the banking crisis filter into economic growth. - Horneman

    Credit contraction.
  • Underwriting losses soar as insurers' exposure to failed banks becomes clear - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 29,2023
  • Is it gonna go back to buy the biggest 7 or 10 stocks and that's it? like before?
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 28,2023

  • Oil prices to rise even if we do slip into a recession, he said.
  • Dollar strength is good for some sectors but bad for workers, says Carnegie's Michael Pettis - YouTube 



  • Unknown how US gets out of bailout guaranteeds.

    "Capitalism had a minimalist government culture in their mind." Until GreatDepression when power was taken too far. We've kept increasing government.

    Rescue Culture started in 1980s with a bank.

    The interconnectedness is something that scares us.

    Why do we have such low productivity growth? So much government intervention undermines capitalism?

    "I have no doubt they're all (not just banks) going to be rescued, because there's no appetite for any pain." The political consensus is not there for that. "What should be done and what will be done are two very different issues."
  • Breadth

    Feb 71% of stocks were above 200-day. A strong bull market. Now down to 38%, which is December levels.
  • Rolling

    The LDI scandal in London in Oct, then it's rolled over to regional banks, then it's rolled into CS, Deutchebank elevated, MetLife, Lincoln Financial CDF, and then commercial realestate loans. This is clearly a rolling credit crisis, said Larry MacDonald.

    The Fed is stuck in a 'fighting inflation' narrative which they have to stick to because it's a very public narrative, they've preached it. The credit risk is about to veto the Fed policy battle.
     
    It's really spread out. Banks, insurance companies, and all kinds of people own these bonds that were sold at 1-2% and are now at like .80.

  • "We're kind of hitting those limits of what people can consume" in ways that they hadn't seen before.
    It was controversial when Roku decided to make TVs (not just a box you plug into other people's TVs). There's been a shift to smartTVs from a box, he said. All-in-one integrated solution.

    The brand now is their user interface. You instantly know how to use it when you turn one on. "If you have an interface people like, and you build on that, there's limitless potential."

    They need to stay ahead of the competition and the consumer, and continue to really be a driver of how consumers use things. They're really dictating ... it's not that users were demanding certain things ... a company can bring the consumer to that.
     
    Some companies make the device, the UI, they're the gatekeeper and make money on all the transactions that take place through those processes.


  • 7000 workers in that department.

    The term itself ('meta') has become a turnoff. - Cramer, who also said that 'the meta of Zuckerburg is one where I'm a cartoon figure, and that's a loser.' We can add to that data mining, biometric/identity loss/harvesting/use, privacy destruction.
     
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 27,2023

  • ETFs still the thing of choice.

  • Office space going vacant (leases are coming up slowly, and companies are thinking they don't need as much space now), and if there's losses, what do the owners (banks) do? They can't really hedge it. If you sell it, you realize the losses which itself becomes a problem and perpetuates the cycle. If they raise cash that destroys profitability in the longrun.

    Rising re-financing issues. Will there be enough investors to buy packaged loans to keep this machine running.

    Debt market. How open is it? Right now there's concern. We haven't had an investment grade-rated bond deal in a week, said Greg Zuckerman. Junk bond spreads are wider (not suggesting credit risk issues). But the interest rate risk could go to a credit rate risk, is a concern.

    In 2008, analogous but different, it took about a year for some of the risks to move through the system.


  • Possible liquidity in banks issue, if citizens take to heart that they're making like 1% or maybe less on their deposits, but that t-bills make 5%, they'll all move their money out of deposits. - Gunlach

    Fed should have raised rates faster, Gundlach said, and instead inflation came. He thinks if the Fed had raised rates faster, the losses (sbv etc) would have been less in the long bond, because the long bond was forced to itself price in inflation, because the Fed wasn't fighting inflation.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 26,2023
  • Chinese government borrowing at highest rate since like 1997

    Stepping in and getting the economy going again.
  • Amazon bought a camera review site (to keep it going?), and now is laying off staff, and is closing the camera site.

    Big companies buying small companies. Hurts longterm viability of the smaller organization?

    DPReview.

  • Inflation happens when demand.

    Work for the side of the offering, so they can produce more, is recommendation. Fore as much as you reduce taxes, you're going to end up collecting more.
  • Jan Stuart doesn't see how oil market can work at $60, so if it goes there, it will be brought back up (by Saudis and friends cutting supply?)
     
    US has a lot of crude stored.

    Potential recession (with new banking aspect) means questionable demand (although demand looks fine from Asia).

    Refiners should do well because the crack, the difference between price of oil going in and coming out of the refineries is decent, said Robert Yawger.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 23,2023
  • Apple to invest more in movies

    $1b is not a lot for apple.

    Later, this can factor into Apple TV+. Prestige from Oscars. Tapping talent in different genres. Smaller movies though, under $100m.

    Amazon made about a $1b movie commitment last year. 12 to 15 movies.
  • "We entered this year with around $620b in unrealized losses on bank balance sheets, which doesn't really matter unless deposits start moving around, and unfortunately that's what's started to happen." - Dan Niles

    No more easy money ... cell phone banking ...
  • Jobless claims decreased again (2 weeks)

    Fed raised rates .25.
     
    Stocks are up.
  • "Efficiency" is the word for this phase

    Facebook's "Year of efficiency". Gamestop used it, too.

  • Depends on the city. Some cities, you can't easily re-purpose (paperwork) from commercial to residential.
  • JB said tech stocks are rallying hard because since everyone is worried about not having enough cash / having to borrow, investors like companies with really strong balance sheets.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 22,2023
  • We've seen 10 or 12 stocks be the market in recent years. Now we'll see many different companies participating, said Mike Wilson

    A more democratic stock market. And more idiosyncratic. The company within a sector that can actually capture this margin and not squander it away when they get a headwind.

    In 2020 and 2021 operating leverage was positive, and now it's negative (it will eventually turn positive again but not next year).

    Look for companies that will benefit from Real Investment (versus Financial Investment). Past 30 years real cost of capital was below the rate of growth, and it didn't make sense to invest capital in risky projects, but rather to borrow at negative real rates and buy back your stock. Anything that has long duration and any growth can do this, investing in M&A, buybacks, things that are like financial engineering.

    Now, who's gonna benefit from real investment? Industrials, financials, some of the commodity complex including materials, energy, technology (which is basically capital investment, it's a growth industry but it's also deeply cyclical).
  • During bear markets, you see these declines, and they don't always make sense fundamentally, because you have active and passive managers who have to do things they don't want to do. Deleveraging. "Hall of mirrors." - Mike Wilson

    So you see something that looks attractive and it might be a headfake.


  • People nowadays can move their money with their phone in a few minutes.

    In any time of insecurity, they'll move their money to one of the banks they think the Fed is guaranteeing.
     
    You need a stable deposit base for banking, and smaller banks might not have it.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 20,2023

  • 6b Euro from taxpayers?
  • Choppy markets

    Possibly kept up a bit by tech. But tech hasn't yet posted data on revised earnings (which some say could be negative), and that could bring markets down, if other sectors which have dropped significantly recently haven't bounced back yet.

    Amazon cut 9k more jobs, in it's growthier, more profitable areas of advertising and AWS. AWS used to grow at 30/40% and that's expected to go to the teens. This doesn't really affect much the huge amount they hired during the pandemic. Amazon doesn't have the strong balance sheets nor growth that other BigTech has. Amazon might be in a decent position to scale back, though, without detriment.

    Recently when these companies fire a lot, their stock goes up, but Amazon was down.

    Lots of revenue comes from advertising, for Amazon, Facebook, and Google (Apple? MSFT?).

    If businesses aren't making profits, tech products are expected to be patronized by them less.
     
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 19,2023

  • "Where are your deposits?" That's a new thing.

    3b for CreditSuise. They raised 4b recently, and now it's worth 3. Said to have been worth 10b. "If we get a look behind at the balance sheets, are the losses more concerning. If all banks are selling bonds, the cost will be lower that they're making.

    Deposit flight, if unchecked, creates forced sellers.
     
    If not sold, their other option was nationalization (or winding down the bank).



  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 17,2023
  • Big Tech also rose on market down days. The tech sector rose like 10% over the week.

    It's considered to be people who have large stock holdings moving out of other things.

  • Past phase was people buying dividend-paying stocks. And that's still the case.
     
  • Grey Swan

    Industrial policies, aquifer depletion, mineral insecurity.


  • During the past week of days when the market was bearish, bitcoin has risen significantly, like gold and treasuries, as a 'safety' move.

    25% of American adults own Bitcoin according to some sources.

  • Bank stop. All the US banks put in millions/billions to help FRC (which also borrowed from the Fed with the Fed's new borrowing thing).

    To keep confidence in banks.

    Switzerland said it would help CreditSuisse.

    Both stocks bounced back after these news, but afterwards lowered.

    Switzerland, does it really have enough money to really help. "Too big to succeed" bank there.
     
  • "It is systemic. The Fed has forced many of these banks to reconfigure their portfolios so as ... they are having duration risk." - Art Cashin

    "A failure of supervision rather than regulation." "The regulation was there."

    "Earnings have come down around 11%." - Chris Toomey

    "We're realizing that all of that activity that the Fed has put in in such a quick fashion is really creating breakage in the system." Fist the banks (which handle money) and then other things in the economy. Especially businesses that really shouldn't be operating at this level where the costs of funds is higher. Values down or out of business.
     
    He said that he was looking for 3600 (real pain in the market) before he starts putting money to work, rather than any other news that could happen.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 15,2023
  • '2023 banking crisis' massively disinflationary?

    Lots saying that. Some even that the Fed won't have to raise rates as much because this will do it for them.

    Gundlach thinks maybe disinflationary in the near-term. But the response maybe instant backstopping with more pressure on regional banks so more inflation.


  • Now that interest rates are much higher (than past 40% of only declining rates everyone is used to), maybe it's going to be much more difficult for bonds to be rolled over at higher interest rates levels. - Gundlach

    Has a high yield bond ever really matured? Aren't they all just default or refinanced? because there's stable and step function of  interest rates and so companies over and over again got the ability to refinance, but they can't refinance now. ... We should probably be worried about TripleC bank loans (lowest tiers of debt) (6 or 8 to 10 or 12 percent).
  • [Powell] needs the banks to raise their rates on consumer loans but not have to deal with the FED hike so they can make the profit off consumers to pay back the bailout.

    They don’t even hide it anymore. - Random guy


  • Yield Curve Steepeners

    One macroeconomic scenario in which using a curve steepener trade could be beneficial would be if the Fed decides to significantly lower the interest rate, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and cause foreign central banks to stop buying the longer-term Treasury. This decrease in demand for the longer-term Treasury should cause its price to fall, causing its yield to increase.


  • (Even) Tom Lee 'can't' be as positive as he has been previously. They sent out a note saying there'd be ripple effects from SVB.


    After years of complete bullish comments, past few months he's been a bit more reserved but still voicing that it would be bullish afterall, but this is the first time I've heard him say something bearish.
    "The cost of money for banks is going up so it's going to drive a necessary contraction of credit.

    Founders (many) are now nervous where they bank. But also some regulators have been advising banks to pull back their lending to Fintech startups. "So I think there's going to be job losses."

    "I think it's wrong to be bullish short term." Because although the market is down, no one wants to step in and say they want to buy.

     
  • House buyers and sellers seem to be comfortable with mortgage rates between 6 and 6.5% - Rossell

    Above, activity stops. Back there, activity picks up. So that might be the longterm rate.


    Demographic factor. Those mellenials tha had put off homebuying are now in their 30s, and will have to accept higher rates. Demographics will overpower anything else going on.

    Debt servicing. The group that is defaulting most is GenXers (young people).

    Still $2t in excess savings sitting around in bank accounts.

    An individual will pay their mortgage and their car payment, but cut everything else. Government service workers will be sent home. This will reduce consumer sentiment. People will stop spending money (people are currently spending just fine). Market and economy will decline, and everyone invested in those things will feel a lot poorer.

    Creditors around the world will demand higher interest rates to hold our debt because they will trust us less.

    What's ridiculous is that it's not that we can't pay. It's that we're unwilling to. (Contrast with Argentina who defaults because literally they can't pay.)


  • 3 to 4% inflation before they can ease on rates - Marci Rossell
  • El-Erian and other usually-critical/negative commenters have been listened to but ignored in part, in recent years. Is it because they didn't resonate with the optics of the market? Whereas in a bear market, they will be listened to like before but also their takes will resonate?
  • Yield curve steepeners
  • Governments print too much money whenever the pain gets too great. - Michael Novogratz

    Probably European banks will do the same thing (for banks like Credit Suisse) as US (for SVB). - Bookvar

    Powell was just 2 weeks ago talking about having to raise rates to 6%. Now it's Oops.

    The Fed hikes rates until something breaks, and last Friday something broke, and now we're seeing lots of things break.

    Banks stress testing themselves and saying It's OK we're stress testing, is truly laughable. - Sen. Warren

    There are all these risks embedded in the balance sheets (of banks). - Amy

    The deposits are safe, and the the banks have a wide-open window at the Fed where they can get liquidity. - El-Erian

    FFed credibility is really at stake here (so they should separate the 2 issues and continue with 25points). "If you comingle these two things too much you will end up in the muddle middle. - El-Erian

    Financial sector capture of monetary policy over the past few years.

    Now all of us have to pay through lower bank interest and more difficult loan conditions for ... dumb CFOs. - Zeihan

    The damage has already been done by decades of mistaken monetary policy on the monetary and fiscal. - Roubini
     
    Interest payments of $10t on the debt we hold because of higher rates. - FoxNews anchor

    When inflation is rising, stocks and bonds both lose money. When inflation is low, stocks and bonds make or lose money inversely. - Roubini


  • Are some of these banks going to have to go out and start raising equity?
     
    How do banks rebuild capital? They lend less.




  • Compared with SVB, CHF would have a systemic effect because it has like $700m (SVB had like $150m) and is significant for Europe and also global.

    Does Switzerland have enough money to bail out CHF though, even it if is TooBigToFail?

    UBS was down like 8% compared to CHF's 20%.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 14,2023


  • Interest rates 0 to 4.50 in 12 months

    Banks might turn into utilities. Utilities have to get permission from the state (they present to the municipality every couple years) they operate in to raise rates ("a rate case").


     
  • Next after the bank thing might be commercial real estate (and banks that are heavily invested in it)

    ... also to watch for non-performing loans (which currently aren't showing concern).

    Credit risks. As credit conditions tighten (which probably). And banks focused on that.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 13,2023
  • How to value banks (which could currently be on sale)

    Start with tangible book value, then make adjustments for unrealized losses that are in securities portfolios. The available forSale losses are already included.

    However, with banks, headwinds include that access to capital will be constrained. There won't be capital raises for a while.

    Loan portfolio reset as we go forward. With higher interest rates and Fed tightening.

    Marinac said the flight to BigBanks won't last forever. The main lending is still mid to medium sized banks.



  • If all the deposits go either to BigBanks or Off Balance Sheet (they sit in Treasuries and things like insured cash sweep), what then happens to the cost of funds? How do you lend without charging exorbitant fees?
  • SVB banked 50% of the startups in the US and lots in the world.

    So not having them any more as a capital provider. (JPM is not doing early stage VC.) So many companies relied on SVB not just to do their servicing, but to provide them non-dilutive financing when they needed it in the early days. What happens with this gap (other banks aren't doing this early stage debt).

    SBV was the beacon from a financial perspective of providing them the financing they needed.
     
    You still need somebody who can fund this market.
  • What does that mean for the American economy in terms of our dynamism and willingness to loan and take chances.

    What does this mean for the future of innovation and VC funding? Who's writing checks right now?
     

  • 2-day collapse and gov stepped in with emergency measures to stop a broader failure.

    We haven't seen a bank collapse so fast in years (2008 yes). Although lots of bank collapses in US history, these are different things.

  • "A giant bailout." - Aaron Klein

    He hoped they would sell the assets of the bank and not resort to providing unlimited deposit insurance.

    Some market risk and have some banks bear some risk.

    SFB had 97% uninsured deposits. Whose biggest account seems to have been a $3b account with a cryptocurrency. And a bank where all the insured depositors had already been taken care of. "We're risking a fundamental structural change to our regulatory system, in a situation where you had a bank completely under the nose of the SF Fed. Where was the supervision?" It grew massively over a couple years and and blew up a giant unhedged interest rate risk tied to Fanny, Freddy and US Treasuries. "That should be red flag red flag red flag for regulators," said Rajan.

    But what should have been done differently? Like many banks, it received tons of stimulus deposits, and short term bonds wouldn't have made any money, and it chose long term bonds. The Search For Yield problem when the Fed pumps the system full of liquidity while having rates so low banks don't make any money, so they end up taking more risk.

    "I cannot believe the pres dared to say well we just need more regulation. I thought they already did that. " - Bahnsen
     
    The Fed continuing to pump in liquidity past where they needed to is the real issue, said Bahnsen, which led to crypto and silly IPOs and SPACs, that's how that deposit base came up. And then they overtightened and destroyed value on the way down.

  • Just forced gifts of equal value?


  • Lending to VCs to change. More equity-like, less loan-like.
  • Was there shorting?
  • SVB had historically called for less banking regulation (which perhaps was the reason this happened), special tax treatment in the form of carried interest


  • "My sense is that all these regional banks are still here on Friday but they're half as big as they were." - Liz Hoffman

    And they're going to replace this incredibly cheap deposit funding with prevailing Fed funds rate at the new facility, which means their margins just collapsed. So none of these stocks are going to trade at remotely what they've traded at for the last couple of years.

    The business model's not the same. Their loans will cost a lot more (but have been massively below market for a long time.)

    Why would you have your money at a small bank when there's even a remote risk of this happening again?

    Big banks' competitive advantage is that people think they WILL be there long term. Now they may lose that security to small banks.
  • The reason SVB caused such huge impact was social media, some commented
  • A preferable solution (to guaranteeing deposits for all the US) would have been a private solution (someone buying SVB), said Altman.

    But that would depend on the government would enter a deal where they would provide certain loss protections to a buyer. The gov wasn't willing to do this, possibly because of the politics. Bear Sterns / JPM et al 2008 were very unpopular, and for this reason they might not have been willing to do a similar thing here.
     
  • "Here's a banking institution which most Americans never heard of, which was not designated as systemically important, and over a 72-hour period, it threatens the entire financial system and financial market stability." - Roger Altman

    "And the banking regulators decide to guarantee the deposit base of the entire US financial system, which is certainly what they just did." (Will this lead to less disciplined management? Will there eventually be pressure to limit shareholder returns, if you're guaranteeing the key liability of these institutions? If the taxpayer is paying to guarantee the key liability, will the taxpayer ally the shareholder to realize the benefit of that?)
     
    "Testimony to the fragility of finance in the global digital era when individuals and institutions can move money in seconds. It's testimony to out-of-date regulation. ... This institution wasn't subject to stress tests and the tighter capital ratio, liquidity and leverage strictures which the biggest banks were subject to. It's testimony to out-of-date deposit insurance.
  • "Until people see they have an asset that's worth 100% of the dollar."
     
    "Find a level that's comfortable."

    "Some humility in Tech."
  • Bank stocks (and all stocks with them) down

    There's stress on the banking system, and that should be shown through equity valuations.


  • US banking regulators easing of terms around the discount window, through a special new bank term facility

    "The Fed is willing to take as collateral the good, relatively riskless assets that banks hold and provide liquidity should give everyone comfort" - Roger Ferguson

    "It really does say the Fed is ready to give liquidity to banks that are in good shape, and that, I think I hope, is sufficient to give the kind of confidence called for."
  • Treasury bonds dropped in value

    Viewed as a flight to quality.

    Good for banks usually.
  • After SVB,

    Will the smaller banks need capital raises? If they do, you have to be careful buying any of the regionals, said Cramer.

    JPM and bigger banks, well capitalized, will be fine, and may be the beneficiaries.

    Some banks don't have sticky deposits, and it will be hard for them to keep deposits.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 12,2023

  • 60% of Americans prefer Costco and Walmart "non-traditional stores". Staple items on sales, upping rewards on loyalty programs.

    Kroger stepping up specialty which is fresh produce, building brand loyalty.

    Store brands mean 10% less.

    1 in 5 shop for groceries at Dollar chain stores. They want you to see that they have the exact same quality as a name brand. Often you'll see a comparison (products beside each other), with two big stickers next to each other.

    Partnering with Insta-cart.

    You can save if you do research before going shopping. Also you can track what food you have in your house and what's running low with apps.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 08,2023
  • Vol low because correlation is lower than years previous - Wu Silverman

    80% of gains were attributed to like 7 stocks before, she said. They would all go up (or down) together.

    Investors aren't hedging very much these days. (Don't know why.)
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 05,2023
  • Census data reveals over half a million left California during the pandemic - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 03,2023
  • 'The Fed has no choice but to engineer a hard landing'

    ... because to slow inflation it has to get unemployment to like 5%.

    You have to position for that eventual slowdown. - Priya Misra

    What 's keeping the consumer going is accumulated savings, but at some point they'll come down.

    Goods spending has already started to come down. We're watching services.

    When service spending starts to come down I think the job market starts to come down as well, Misra said.
     
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 02,2023
  • Pandemic was just saving, and now they're spending that unusual savings rate - Becky
  • "The Tragedy of the Second Best"

    The further you are away from the right policy response, which they fell behind on, the more whatever you do has collateral damage and unintended consequences.

    "If you stick to 25 and go 'higher for longer' you risk hiking into a slowing economy and you undermine your credibility." - El-Erian

    "If you go to 50, you undermine your forward policy guidance and the narrative of disinflation (said 11 times during the press conference)."
     
  • "We need the two year to stabilize in order to have a foundation for risk assets."

    10-year, you have to think about growth (more factoring in of recession).
  • Fed hikes (90 basis points) are priced in, but also Fed cuts (130 points) are priced in.


     
  • "We have no idea what's going on with productivity."

    Unit labor costs were expected to go up like 1.5%, but went up like 3%.

    Productivity surged during pandemic. A lot of workers were laid off, and then came back in.

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 01,2023
  • Russel does a much better job of differentiating growth and value stocks - Charlie Bobrinskoy

    Interest rates declined for 15 years (with the exception of last year). Value stocks earned their money in the near term. They don't get helped so much by a drop in interest rates as Growth companies whose earnings are 30 years into the future.

    People are also interested in Growth stocks because the grow more. Growth rates.

    However, growth over 10 years always lost to value, before 2005, because people want to own growth which pushes up the stockprice, so they overpay.

  • Because of interest rates.

    And...

    About 2% of people want to do entire transaction (deliver the car to me) online, but 70% want to do more of it online).

    Shop, finance, buy, and sell. Services Cargurus offers.

    Instead of a 5-hour process at the dealers, they pick it out and do maybe an hour at the dealers.
     
  • 33% of women quit or considered quitting their jobs in past year - CNBC survey

    Half of those who said they left their jobs said they did so for better work-life balance. Half also said stress. Half also said for more money. Leaving and taking another job seems to be better than pushing for a raise.


    VP (execs) level job women have left in record numbers.

    About 25% of women said they 'wouldn't work in a state that bans abortion.' Overturn of RvWade happened recently.
  • US companies are exhausted but committed in China after 3 years - Michael Hart (AmCham)

    Lots didn't make a profit in China last year.

    Is China building its own systems, will there be an advantage for Chinese companies, and how big a role will US companies be able to play in China?
    Do they feel welcome? Chinese customers definitely want to buy US products. So issues would come more from national sources, and may be pushed back against by consumers who want the best product.

    75% said they weren't leaving China. The others are looking at options (derisking, building additional operations in other countries). Sometimes because the companies are asked to do so by their suppliers.
     
  • 3 months ago the majority of Morgan Stanley's clients thought a recession was likely, and now they think it's not so likely

    Wilson thinks the earnings recession is far from finished, so the bear market is unlikely to be near finished. Could be done now, could go down 20% to their basically stable thesis of low 3000s.
     
  • Firing might be moving to industrial sector

    Fine in Tech sector, but people will not want to see it in industrial.

    Currently just in auto makers.
    Also, there might be something to the leader-follower dynamic, like if the Tech Giants are laying off thousands, smaller companies might say well they're doing that for a reason so maybe we should cut costs too. And same for other sectors. We could draw a Cascading model for firing here.
     
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 28,2023
  • "This new supposedly generational opportunity in AI"

    Nvidia is up on guesses it will be able to capitalize on AI like chatGPT, but so far no one has demonstrated much real use cases for it (we're about 2 months into mass public adoption). Not long after adoption start, some called it the bubble of 2023.
  • Big tech companies have used cutbacks (firing) to maintain their valuation, but how will they maintain valuation in coming quarters?

    Investors are also looking at company's ability to attract/hire talent.
  • Housing market and borrowing in the economy, 2023

    Typically, when rates rise borrowing continues, because income growth in some sectors slows and the consumer responds by borrowing MORE to maintain their standard of living.

    Housing is the weakest sector right now. An inherently slowmoving cycle (years to play out, so into 2024 some say).

    Homeowners are locked in at really nice rates, so they're not moving, and less people want to buy in because of higher prices/rates, so rent (also a big part of CPI, so contributes to Fed's Tighter for Longer). So they won't be borrowing. Very mean-reverting.

    Home prices will fall (eventually forced sellers, those who have to move, with maybe a 10-15% national house depreciation.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQxOxR-n3_s

    Yet, pending home sales jumped from Dec to Jan 8% (street expecting only 1%). But a more solid indicator, morgage applications, are down.

    Singapore: Private retail condo prices falling outside of cities, but in cities still rising.

    Property volume, transactions, is down a lot. Instead of 10 viewers, more like 2 viewers. He advises people looking for rental tenants to secure their tenants, because a huge amount of new flats are coming on the market in the coming months and years.

    “$1m load payment interest $40k. Who can pay that?” Meanwhile t-bills are paying 5%.

    Only thing pushing up prices Chinese coming in. But the Chinese economy isn't doing well, and they're not being seen in Korea, Europe, shopping. You see trickles now, not humongous buying power.

    How self-fulfilling are beliefs (currently that the market will be flat or go down) about the stock market?
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 27,2023
  • test
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 26,2023
  • Where p/e starts to matter

    For the past couple years p/e's have been ignored - 'Well they are overpriced but people are treating them like they're not.' But now, with a recession/slowdown not just being used as a word and a possibility (it has been commonly talked about and even asserted over the same period), but rather an actual thing setting in, and a stock selloff happening, it's like, 'Well what's to stop the stock from falling more? if I try to hold it rather than sell?' Well, the price is overvalued for what the company is, so the question is maybe Will people continue to treat the valuation as if it doesn't matter?
     
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 25,2023
  • Corporate debt cloud

    They'll have to refinance at the higher rates.

    At these high rates, there's not going to be a lot of issuance. So supply will contract and otherwise remain the same at these levels, so that could help spreads a bit.

    We might see a Fed easing cycle when a lot of this is due.


    There's a Fed put for systemic risk, but not for default and losses in the private sector.

    It looks like a lot of managers did their financing right to prepare, but it looks like they will be refinancing into higher rates. That means layoffs, cost contractions,
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 24,2023
  • "At the end of the day, a recession is a psychological phenomenon. It's a lack of faith." - Mark Zandi

    Is that true?

  • In stocks, flight to dividends, high quality stocks. Active stock pickers, not passive. (If you're not a smart stock picker, diversification.) Are you conservative? Are you risky?
  • Consumer still spending, and savings rates higher, but personal spending growth is outpacing personal income growth, so the savings number might well go down / consumers are spending savings they'd built up before.
  • Goods and commodities prices clearly showing path to disinflation is intact. - Jim Lebenthal

    Multiple expansion is only ok when you have trough earnings. - Weiss
     
    Choppy period until we can really sift through all of this data. - Brenda Vingiello
  • Ukraine reconstruction estimated to cost $350b
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 22,2023
  • More rate hikes are now being predicted, so the end-point is higher. Market is starting to think about 6% by the Fall, which is more than had been bakedIn.

    How much the rate hikes will be will be a function of the stock market.

    Short rates (2-year) made a new high briefly.

    Interest rate markets have been moving higher.

    If you get 6% in a 6-month bill, you're getting 2/3rds of the longterm appreciation of the stock market with no risk at all. That would provide heady competition for the stock market. Cash could be not just a waste of time as it had been throughout 2010s. 
  • A broadbased, macroeconomic-driven slowdown in hiring - ZipRecruiter

    Corroborated by other companies. Large and SMB (small and medium).

    A delta has opened between open jobs that are open and open jobs that employers are willing to pay to recruit for. Wait-and-see posture by employers, less certainty, although they are still seeing good sales, just not sure if this is the time to hire. Putting their dollars behind their hiring is another story.

    Less liklihood employers will close even when they find a candidate they like. Candidates would then swell. Spike in jobseeker activity and engagement level.

    Last 3 years unprecedented leverage in favor of jobseekers.
  • China has no choice but to stimulate growth - Ben Harburg

    All those regional governments that were previously told to maintain covid zero for 3 years are being told Grow at all costs.

    Infrastructure spending. 7% growth year in China based on stimulus, expected by Harburg.

    Regulatory things, maybe softened by now. Want Western investment.
  • Current environment lends to an activist campaign, some say
  • Duration risk versus or credit risk in fixed asset investing

    Vanessa Chan said duration is looking a little more attractive.
  • Consumers are slowing down (in US), according to analysts. Even in retail valuations are starting to matter.

    As more disposable income goes to inflation. Can't pass costs. Although the big companies like Walmart did handle the inventory issue, people think.
     
    Savings rates going down a bit.
  • Inflation cooling will make the Fed data dependent, instead of data reactive, and that means vol will fall (both for yields and for equity risk premium), and that's why stocks can rally later - Tom Lee

    Both sides of the inflation story (energy and housing prices), and that's 60% of core, are deflating. Might print 2% inflation in the summer.

    Hikes have been associated with higher stock prices in many relatable periods. If inflation risk falls yields will fall and equity risk premium will go up.

  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 21,2023
  • Big firms have hired thousands of workers, and can't hire enough people, and are raising wages, but these are people they can easily fire.
  • Shift in psychology

    Hasn't happened, but might be happening now, where the public goes from thinking there can be a soft landing and the economic issue if fixed, to where they realize there has to be a recession.


    Leading indicators as they are now have historically always meant a recession ahead.

    Not just money supply but bank lending standards and the demand for CNI loans have tightened to a level that leads to a recession. The data shows a recession, Dwyer said.

    Stocks markets have never bottomed before a recession. Average time from beginning of a recession to market bottom is half a year.

    "We know that when the 2-year is making a peak, the S&P has never made THE low until after the 2 year peaks. That means the October low isn't it. We also know that the market has never bottomed before the recession even began."

    We're over a year into this bear market. The next low will be the low, and will be when bad news finally will become bad news. That's typically when you make the recession-based low. Dwyer will go for early cycle names at that time. Financials and economically-sensitive cyclical names.

    "The soft landing scenario is not the best case scenario. We don't have to guess. We know exactly what's going to happen if you're in a soft landing. Inflation is going to remain elevated. The Fed is going to have to tighten. And the market, and risk is going to get hit."

    "What we really need is to go into a recession to the point where the Fed will lower rates enough that it kickstarts a credit cycle. Not now when we're about to enter a potential negative cycle."

    An unemployment rate of a half a percent for an average of 3 months above the low, you know you're in a recession. Ie if the US get's a 3.9% unemployment rate. Should be about to make a low. Creates an opportunity for a real, sustainable bull market. The problem is money, not just the thought of money. The money system is shut down.
  • European consumers seem to be more preoccupied in buying habits

    Bright spots are US, Latin America, Africa, Middle East, Asia.

    Difference in how Europeans and Americans perceive their family finances. Not shown in numbers yet.
  • Most retailers recognized oversupply, marked down aggressively
  • Home Depot down 5% today

    Trends in housing market.

  • Salaries payed in restricted stock units (15% - 50% lower)
  • IPOs in Q2?

    There's currently a fair amount of growth capital out there right now, so that can extend a company's ability to stay private. The need to go public isn't as great as years ago, when after 2 or 3 years of growth, in order to get more growth capital, companies more commonly went public. - David Rubenstein
  • The gap between buyers and sellers not quite as much as 6 or 9 months ago
  • China, al contrario de everywhere else, you have quantitative easing, interest rates rates are falling, equity valuations are reasonable. China consumer coming back online across 2023


  • China reopening as a disinflationary factor (supply-driven) - Lavorgna

    Not the same expansionary growth in commercial and residential real estate, so their demand for commodities isn't going to be as high.

  • Tightening cycle has been aggressive and eventually the economy is going to really feel it. We're just not there yet. - Joe Lavorgna
  • Economist are looking already toward August (Jackson Hole) and October (?jobs data)
  • The Fed is going to wait for clear evidence inflation is going down, while the market is going on the preponderance of evidence thesis - Paul McCulley

    Rates will only last for another year or so, according to the yeild curve and how disinflation (although not as fast as some would like) is manifestly in train.
     
    Market may be too giddy right now, though.
  • Gamestop, AMC, meme stocks

    If a company does not make money, the stock cannot float high forever.
     
    There are equal numbers invested on the long and on the short side.
  • Interactive Brokers doing well

    As interest rates rise, they make more money on selling the cash they have. And it allows them to pay 4.8% (currently) on idle cash, while most banks pay a fraction of a percent. This allows them to get more and more customers. Growth of business.
  • Prices going down in energy, housing, rentals, commodities - Seigel

    Payrolls strong. Service sector always the last to go down in inflation. Tightening only started 11 months ago.

    Cumulative effect of monetary policy.
     
    (Note though that housing prices has been stickier, lending to services sector - Aneeka Gupta)
  • "Inflation increases your operating leverage and that cycle has turned down" - Mike Wilson

    Their work suggests the market is wrong in thinking earnings decreases won't be that extreme. Earnings recession because of over-earning during the pandemic.

    Range between 3000-3300 (consistent estimate 6 or 9 months). Currently at 4000 ("or just air").
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 16,2023
  • Highest ever consumer debt ($1t) combined with rising interest rate
  • "Don't fight the Fed versus don't fight the tape"
  • Less money in the system

    Powel's recent speech.

    (After 10 or 15 years of loose money and boomers retiring.)

    1/3 of money in system to be taken out, Zeihan said.


  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 13,2023
  • Investors are again very divided

    After a strong January in markets (up 20% from lows). Before that it sounded very negative listening to CNBC (only Tom Lee optimistic). During, people were happy but cautious, and have been voicing 'bear market rally' case all along.

    Many saying the bottom is in, but that's beside the point for most. One of the issues is the Fed, which doesn't want inflation, but seems to be acting like it's not going to be hawkish (which it will have to be if inflation is continuing).

    Anyway, tons of investors on CNBC saying bear market rally and some saying significant drawback in store. Others saying it's time to be offensive.
     
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 08,2023
  • AI is the bubble of this year - Josh Brown
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 06,2023
  • Probably need a 20% reduction in earnings to get enough of an inducement to lay off enough workers to push the unemployment rate up enough to bring down wages to bring down inflation - Bob Prince

    So far corporate profits are doing fine and they're looking for more workers.

    There's still a lot of nominal demand.

    Now spending is being financed by income which is being financed by spending (unlike a couple years ago when spending was financed by money printing).

    A return to the boom-bust cycle. Like the 70s, not like the last 10 years. Will likely be an iterative process over several years.

    The most obvious bubbles have been popped. But there's an earning bubble, a profits bubble, that was inflated by the printing of money. Still to come.

    Historically to get 2-3% increase in unemployment rate you need a 20% drop in earnings.
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 03,2023

  • Gets around the H1 Visa.

    Even skilled tasks.

    Onshoring manufacturing (robotics, 3d printing, getting the price down to what it was in Asia), offshoring talent. Brazil, Poland (used to be Russia/Ukraine), India. They're not as productive (part is the method of having employees remotely), but price makes up for it. Metaverse.

    Will likely depress wages for white collar workers, some say.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 31,2023
  • 65% of US adults (166m(can that be right?)) had no money after paying bills in December

    March 2020 was the same number.

    Dec 2021 it was 9m.

    Visa's saying everyone's spending, though.

    High income people are also effected.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 27,2023
  • When the market pulls back again, where is the money going to come from

    One investor thinks it'll come more from Tech again, which he thinks still can't carry the weight of its overpricing.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 25,2023
  • The European market (and EMs) is a bull market, says Charles Schwab's Jeff Kleintop - YouTube 
  • 2% is too low for the relative price changes you need while re-wiring global supply chains
     
    It's also not far enough away from 0.
  • What's your non-recoverable mistake? Not What are you going to do? How do you hedge against it?

    Most mistakes in investment are recoverable over time.
     
    Blind spot. These people simply don't understand structural uncertainty. When faced with something uncomfortable they ignore it, downplay it verbally.

    Reframers. Hear something, it's uncomfortable, and they reframe it.

    Active inertia (tends to be the most successful group). Say the same thing but louder rather than do something different.
  • We're going to see massively different outcomes for different companies and different sectors

    Unlike the past when there was no issue except liquidity and there was lots of liquidity. Strategy then was passive.
     
  • While we're going to a new economic environment destination, we have to think about both (the enjoyment or opposite) the journey and the destination. - El-Erian

    The destination can be so exciting the journey isn't worried about. Also, the journey can be so unpleasant it spoils the destination.
     
  • We have lots of zombie companies that are holding back productivity

    We are heading toward a destination where financial markets are less distorted.

    Growth models have risen in priority. Better treatment of our planet is mixed into this this time.
  • The big frustration of last year was there was nowhere to hide (not in bond market) - El-Erian

    As liquidity was withdrawn everything was sold off.
  • Reasons for economies slowing down, according to El-Erian

    China. Mishandling of exit from ZeroCovid, vaccination policy. And reorienting growth model (currently based on ever-closer globalization). China will be a drag.

    Europe. Dealing with energy supply disruptions. Inventory management has been improved. Structural headwinds. Growth will be slow.

    US. "Cleanest dirty shirt." Structurally it can grow, but could fall into recession if Fed pushes US to it. There was no common solution, unlike 2009. Regional problems means insularity.
     
  • Narrative has shifted to tightness in the labor market, some say

    More employers laying workers off. Having to pay more to get new workers to join.

    Inflation started in energy and food, then went to the goods sector, and is now in the services sector.
     
    Inflation was allowed to get embedded in the economy.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 17,2023
  • Recent downward guidance

    "Why wouldn't you guide down?" if everyone's facing the same headwinds.
  • 20 years China's become a trading partner.

  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 10,2023
  • Earnings can be down yet S&P goes up lots of years.

    It's because during a bad year, people sell off and prices are down (like last year let's say 20 or 30% down). Then the next year so much has been discounted that with a low earning report people can still be buying saying yeah that's fine that's discounted already. They're anticipating.

     
  • The yield curve inversion predictor of a recession (accurate for past 8 recessions since proposed by the guy in like 1986) may not be an indicator for the first time this time, the guy said.

    The Fed is now overcommunicating in advance so much it obviates the need to even look at a yield curve (when they're basically laying out what they're gonna do). Some say.

    Some say also that the absolute level of rates matters, and with interest rates at 0 what yield curve are you looking at?

    Also the model was linked to inflation-adjusted yields. Inflation expectations are inverted, ie traders see inflation easing over time.
  • Dividend stocks weren't favored over the past few years, but in an economic downturn and where things don't look certain, a company that has increased its dividend every year for 40 years has an effect on the investor.

    Even if it wasn't a good quarter.

    It also allows investors to measure.
     
    It's also probably not going to dive as a stock.
  • "[The WallStreet banks] all hire too many people when the going is good because they have to throw bodies at all the demand for M&A, lending, credit, trading, and then that doesn't last forever, and in a normal year they're culling underperformers, and in a complete wipeout year ..." Josh Brown on banks doing a lot of high volume firing
     
    It is highly pro-cyclical in the way it hires and fires.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 09,2023
  • "Ultimately what you need is an aggressive cutting of interest rates that allows the yield curve to steepen sharply, which would then give investors the ability to look through that coming negative economic outlook or weaker earnings." - Tony Dwyer

    Worse economic news is what will let investors look through.

    Growth growing in 2023. 4.5% decline in S&P operating profits predicted.
     
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 06,2023
  • Gold and precious metals likely to move higher, says Permanent Portfolio's Michael Cuggino - YouTube 
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 04,2023
  • Do we currently know how to map future demand?

    For past 10 years it seemed sort of like things were quite predictable.
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 21,2022
  • Existing home sales down for 10 months now in US

    2.5 weeks average salary per month to pay mortgage. Monthly house payment up about $700 in 12 months.

    Analysts it will take a couple years before the housing market improves (wages increase, mortgage rate down, house prices more affordable). 5% mortgage is where some see things becoming more normal (currently 7%, 7.5% considered to have been the peak).


     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 19,2022
  • Millionaires own 90% of individually held stocks, and 55% think the S&P will go down around 10% next year

    A third think 15% or more.
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 08,2022
  • Why the Crypto crash hasn't spread to other markets

    Also a reason collapse can happen so quickly.

    Few traditional finance sources (few banks have come in with credit limits and bonds) played with them. "Due to federal bank regulators continued emphasis on safety and soundness in consumer protection."

     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 07,2022
  • "Elon Musk's challenge will be to find the right advertisers for Twitter" - a headline I saw
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 05,2022
  • Apple is by far the slowest to join the accelerating exodus out of the Chinese system (which began in the last year of Obama), said Zeihan

    "... taken every instance of trade disputes or genocide and doubled down... "

     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 02,2022
  • Stable coin scams

    If they say the value is pegged to the dollar, and they don't have the capacity to keep that value there.

    They also 'defeat the whole purpose of crypto currencies', Yanis said.
     
  • Bitcoin so far has never been macroeconomically significant - Yanis

    Central banks can create tens of trillions of dollars. The crypto market cannot destabilize that.

    Capitalism is unstable by itself.
     
  • Imagine how much worse the pandemic would have been if we had a fixed supply of money - Varoufakis

    ... Which couldn't just be expanded rapidly by the Fed in response to economic upturns and downturns.

    An apolitical supply of money, like gold.

    It's not that governments have political authority and power to do things, but how they use it, for him. Non-democratic. Any concentration of power which is unequal and not answerable to the people. And also the central power of Google, Facebook, private sources of concentrated power.

    "Decentralizing money like Bitcoin simply creates bitcoin oligarchs. It is not a safe route to democratizing money." Just replacing fiat oligopolies with bitcoin oligopolies.
     
  • The US had a big surge in demand for goods in 2020, 2021, now it's starting to come back to trend.

    Can this prop up an economy?
  • Handbags, among least volatile (2-5% fluctuation) asset class, proven to be good hedges against inflation.

    Hermes, Burkin, Kelly, and some Chanel. Rare, mint, specific colors. A high price for a handbag is like $100k - $300 generally.

     
  • Cash levels are still high. People are holding cash.

    Bullish? S&P is down but maybe we're through the downtrend. And people are waiting with cash (part of which they took out of the market recently).
     
  • Temporary sweet spot with inflation - Dwyer

    With the lowering of goods inflation (they are coming down) you're getting al lift in the services inflation.

    Powell said he doesn't expect housing or housing-related services to start dropping until next year.

    So you're in a temporary sweet spot where you've slowed it enough to keep the goods side down but the services is going to keep it up above where they want it.
     
  • $100 or 300t problem, potentially the biggest ... that the price of money is centrally planned - Dylan LeClair

    50 years into global fiat currency experiment. Reaching a point where global debt burdens are so bloated that the only way out is monetary debasement.

     
  • 'A bursting of the everything bubble'
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 30,2022
  • A huge source of funds for Euro govts is fining Facebook and Google

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 28,2022

  • 500k applications to bring in workers. 80k granted. Usually they grant like half.
    Estimated 1.8 legal immigrant shortfall. And bringing them in now can take a year.

    US currently reports 10m job openings and 6m unemployed.

    12% of US population is foreign born. But they are 40 or 50% of STEM labor force, so contribute massively.

    Lack of healthcare workers in some regions.

    Questions about US system of bringing in a family member versus possible system based on meritocracy.
     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 27,2022

  • "In Lisbon they banned new AirBnBs in the city center last year and immediately house prices fell by about 10%, whereas in the rest of the city (where AirBnB continued to exist) rent and house prices continued to soar."

    "Some Canadian cities require that you live in the property if you want to do short-term rentals. Usually people have a second entrance to what is essentially a full hotel room (personal kitchen, bathroom) in the basement."

    "I used to live in a coastal beach town called rockaway beach, Oregon but when I moved away for a couple years and came back there was nothing in the rental market so I had to get a trailer and live in a trailer park in Tillamook, OR. This system of AirBNB has Destroyed Oregon's Rural coastal communities."

    "You didn't mention other problems with short-time renting - those who rent often do not respect their neighbours and make a lot of noise and throw garbage everywhere (they do not know or care where to get rid of garbage). Where I live - in the centre of Copenhagen - our building's association just decided to force owners to register when they are renting out their apartment, which ended the pratice, because now they were liable to pay damages. BTW- if they rent out the apartment without notifying they can be thrown out of the apartment."

    "It bypasses traditional zoning laws where normally you’d never allow a mini hotel to open in the middle of a residential street."

    "We did this in Paris and Rome. It was great. But I did get the feeling that no one lived in these places and they we only used for short term rentals."

    "... most apartments in old town have been converted in hostels, airbnbs and offices. Nowadays I only go downtown if I have friends visiting, and need to show them culture and history (what remains of it)"
  • Corps in US/UK give away (buybacks/dividends) 90% of their profits. They used to give away 35%. No money left for re-investment.

    Europe 70%.

    Corporate government structure maximizes shortterm gains for shareholders.

    Europe has supervisory boards for over 2000 employee companies. They have very few hostile takeovers. The main German banks also own a bit of the companies. They have a seat and a say.

    US debt


    How much American corporations pay out of their profits


  • In crypto, some are calling for setting up emergency liquidity procedures, creating pools of money to help firms when they struggle with liquidity issues when people start to pull money out. Like with banks.

    Is this the same as ‘centralizing’ this decentralized thing?

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 25,2022
  • Retail inventory is high (high demand last year and so lots of buying)

    People go things a lot easier than they maybe expected (supply chains).

    It's expected there will be promotions (sales) this season.
  • Household costs in US up around $400 per month, and retail has plateaued, reportedly, and restaurants too

    Luxury is doing well though, especially watches, women's accessories (rare items).


  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 24,2022
  • Crypto (after FTX)

    'Sometimes you need to battle-test the infrastructure and the thesis (and see who are the survivors)' - Kathy Wood on crypto

    "Cleansing bad players" - Tom Lee. 2023 if there's more fraud, Bitcoin will probably have another bad year, but good companies will emerge out of it, like how JPM came out of 08. Similarly, from the old internet, there were lots of software and media companies (Yahoo), which most people today have never heard of. Many went bankrupt. A few are big now.

    There were 2 big 'white knight' players in a supposedly-supposed-to-be decentralized industry, FTX and Binance. Now there's just Binance. Binance is bailing out FTX and others. What happens if something happens to Binance. Who's going to bail out Binance?

    Mix of lots of customer money, non-disclosure, and leverage (borrowing against it), and inside these companies trading.

    The public, around the world, has got hurt by this. Laws can protect investors. Going into courts, telling judges the facts and the laws.

    Celebrities. People can fall prey to their promotions, their marketing.

    Education ('this is speculative') is part of the SEC strategy.

    Of all the cryptos, Solana, etc, only 2 or 3 or 10 will survive. The next coins will be gen 3 or 4 or 5. Zuckerburg saw what was there at the time, learned from it, and improved it. Google saw other search engines at the time. Shkreli talked about this stuff.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 21,2022

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 18,2022

  • Immigration down to 200k. Used to be like a million legal immigrants. Nobody has labor.


     

  • Why people say the Fed is basing its actions off the wrong inflation dataset. Government reports rents as rising because of the lag.

     

  • People are now spending on their credit cards.

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 17,2022

  • FRED, Central Bank digital currency, biggest holder of mortgages, Citi, BNU Mellon, US Bank, Wells, etc. France, Switzerland, Singapore cross-border CBDC.

    BIS is a private institution overseeing government things. Control over purchases, no cash, government can freeze accounts like Canadian Truckers participation and support. Events can also be faked while backdroors are pushed through. One digital identity mapped across all bank accounts, KYC. Carbon scores, social credit.

     
  • What will happen with prices in the next couple years?


    Defaults is one of the most trailing things to look at. - Ivelina Green, founder & CEO at Pearlstone Alternative

    Owners of companies will do anything before handing over keys to lenders. Rescue financing, support from sponsors, first.

    Usually in the past, companies with poor balance sheets, low in cash, cyclical, but this time they haven't really been sold off because there's so little liquidity people know that if they try to sell some of those credits they'll simply push down prices 30 or 40 points and still won't be able to sell risk. So instead people are selling winners.

    Exciting for distressed investors (who look at prices based on a 3 or 4 year timeframe), who can buy non-distressed assets at distressed prices.
     
  • UK bond crisis over past few years

     
  • NY maybe paid $2b in fraudulent payments over past couple years

    (What would the total USA number be? Could be a few hundred B, said Sullian.)



  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 16,2022
  • How much high talent is Apple, Google, Facebook hoarding?

    In this podcast, an anecdote where someone tried to hire a developer from Apple, but the developer said that even if you paid him more (which would be a lot), he wouldn't leave because at Apple they don't ask him to do anything, so he has a lot of leisure to think about his own future startup.

    Samo Burja: Bismarck Analysis and geopolitical uncertainty - YouTube  round 49:00 or so

  • New home inventory building rapidly.

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 15,2022
  • "The week that hero worship died" - Michael Batnik on Musk and other personalities

    "Oh Sequoia invested. Blackrock invested." That part is done.
     
  • "The dollar is a mood ring telling us about the inflation expectations embedded in the markets."

    - Josh Brown
  • Large tech companies, in addition to laying off workers, are 'puking up large amounts of retail space back onto the market.'
  • Goldman's de-inflation prediction

    Everything going in the right direction, basically.

    "We expect core inflation to fall significantly in 2023 for three key reasons," wrote Goldman. " 1) a negative swing in the contribution from supply-constrained goods categories, following supply-chain improvements, 2) a peak in shelter categories reflecting a further rebound in vacancies and a waning boost from reopening and the return to cities, and 3) slower wage growth, reflecting the continuing rebalancing of the labor market."

    Inflation due to supply constraints are presently adding 0.6 percentage points to the core PCE, but this will shift to minus 0.4 percentage points towards the end of next year, accounting for nearly half the slowdown in the overall core measure.

    "Supply chain disruptions and shipping congestion eased significantly in 2022, and inventories of cars and consumer goods have rebounded from extremely depressed levels. The supply of semiconductors in particular has improved dramatically, with automotive microchip shipments now 42% above 2019. This has already catalyzed a 5% decline in the used car CPI, and we assume another 15% drop in 2023," Goldman explained.

    Shelter inflation should peak this spring, Goldman reckons, as recent strong demand for rental properties has already sparked an increase in supply, with 1 million apartments under construction, the biggest pipeline since the mid 1970's.

    "Rental vacancies rates are starting to rebound as a result and are likely to return to pre-pandemic rates next year. Additionally, the boost from continuing leases renewing at market rates now appears to be reflected in the monthly pace of shelter inflation, as CPI microdata reveal that it already embeds an acceleration in renewal rent growth to 8% year-on-year. Also, rent inflation for new leases has fallen sharply: we estimate to just +3% annualized last quarter," says Goldman.

    Finally, a softer jobs market should suppress wage growth and help reduce service sector inflation by late 2023.

    "Labor market rebalancing is already lowering wage growth, particularly in sectors with large declines in the jobs-workers gap such as retail and leisure. We expect year-on-year wage growth to fall by 1.5 percentage points to 4% by late 2023, helping to slow inflation in labor-intensive services categories."

    Goldman does note however that the market consensus is for core PCE to fall even lower to 2.7% by late 2023, but reckons this is over optimistic as core services inflation will remain above 4%.

    "This reflects a lower but still elevated pace of shelter inflation later in the year, as well as an outright increase in healthcare inflation in part reflecting the largest Medicare fee update in at least 15 years," the bank concludes.

    From:



  • CNBC talked about getting caught up in the story of these founders, like FTX, like Theranos

    "He really created quite an extraordinary persona. I loved the sleeping in the office, the attire, he's playing the part, right? I think If he had been driving around a Lamborghini, people would have been like Wow we really gotta look a little more closely."

    "But he's this guy in a T-shirt who can't even comb his hair, and you think, he's gotta be a genius."

    "He doesn't care about money, he just seems to care about ..."

    "His vision. Strategy."

    They also pointed out that investing has been as a group in Silicon Valley. Clubby. Fomo. The biggest investors all in the same deals.

    Backing up something that was really supporting something that was supported by nothing.

    Compound also talked about this. He was heralded as a boy genius, the adult in the room. He tried 20 of the best investors, including Blackrock, Sequoia.

    Why wasn't more diligence done? Even what kind of diligence would have uncovered fraud.

    However, there were people who were skeptical of SBF. But when you just got the headlines about him. 'Oh he's just like JP Morgan,' and you just accepted it. Social proof. It was the second biggest, so why shouldn't they have so much money?

    He bought the naming rights to the stadium (Super Bowl) and made friends with all the celebrities. Simultaneously he was posturing as, "No, we're the compliant ones. We're the ones that are engaging with lawmakers."

     
  • People aren't saying the Fed is going to ease up yet (although some are saying they could or should have a while ago), but they are saying a point where the Fed eases up can potentially now be seen.

    Tech companies have announced and are laying of thousands of people.

    It's been hawky for months and no doves, and now it'll be more mixed, some say.

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 14,2022
  • Big 5 losing leadership?

    Over a process measured in years, not months, as the big tech names in 1999.

     
  • Gravitas: The impact of Silicon Valley layoffs on Indian Techies - YouTube 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 13,2022

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 12,2022
  • FTX grew fast and no one really understood where the money came from

    More forensic accountants and less economists and quants, it'd help detect what was going on in countries and companies, said Summers

  • The swings seem strong

    When the market goes down, what people say is quite pessimistic, so listening to things on that day you wouldn't expect the market to go up for a very long time, but on days when the market goes up, it seems like no one's really bearish.
  • What won't de-inflate?

    Clothing, medical equipment ...


  • How much does the cryto loss take out of the USD abundance, and bring the let's-say 'over' wealth lower?
  • Market bears (Minard, Weiss) are buying right now

    Inflation is coming down, they say. They had been expecting 20% down. They've recently been buying. They haven't said they now think it's a bull market, but that currently, or temporarily perhaps, it's a buying opportunity.

    A 'bottoming process' now, or still in a bear market?
     
  • What's the difference between bitcoin and the USD?

    (If bitcoin is just fake money, with nothing of real value behind it, what is USD?)

    $30t economy, full faith in credit, and Federal Reserve is behind the dollar, interest-bearing securities in which you can place your dollar with a relative degree of safety, USD still a very highly-rated credit despite debt to GDP levels. ... Ron Isana.

    "It's a real thing." Comprises 65% of global trade. 95% of global exchange transfers. It's a reserve currency (bitcoin isn't, and "doesn't exist in any form except in the minds of those who created it.")

    "We've done this a million times in the past, whether it's tulip bulbs, railroad bonds, electronics companies or bad internet companies. The underlying internet was important but a lot of the players like CNGI disappear because they had no functional use case"

    Blockchain technology is useful though. (It is the underlying tech, and crypto is the overlay.) Cheaper, frictionless transactions, more secure, transparent.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 10,2022
  • A few signs of slowing inflation. S&P up 5.5% for the day. DOW 3.7%.
  • Siegel says inflation is basically over, and Fed doesn't need to even do what it's probably going to do, as he's said for around three months

    More than 8% is what they're saying inflation is at, but Siegel says it's nowhere near that really.

    It's actually negative (not even just at 0). We're in negative core inflation mode, if the Fed uses the right stats. They've been using faulty statistics, he says.

    They should use the ACTUAL home and rental price in. The one the Fed uses is lagged.

    He thinks they'll probalby go 50 and then announce a pause.


  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 09,2022


  • Nov 8 catalyst.
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 08,2022

  • From The Compound

  • Changes in people selling Chinese products to world. It seems Ali Express is not allowing people to sell from them through 3rd party apps as before.

    Now, it seems, people need to register for a category of products in China (license for some categories), which cost over $1000 (deposit of 10,000CNY or 30,000CNY seem most common), so the online store can dropship from China. It seems you can still dropship from another country.

    Also talk of 'wire transfer' for cash. Because PayPal has a high fee.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 06,2022
  • What goes into inflation numbers? Something people have been looking at now - Didn't have to be accurate with it before

    Krugman's recent EconEd 2022 lecture

    Some things are clearly just volatile prices, and some had been included in core inflation.

    If you exclude food and energy, or if you exclude extreme movements, what you basically end up with is housing. Housing is core inflation, 40% of core CPI.

    Rent is a lagging indicator. Leases. It can lag way behind when there are big shifts.

    Krugman says inflation is 4-7%. Probably 5%.

    Inflation expectations for this year are high, but for a few years ahead they're more stable. So an overheated economy. People talk about a coming plunge in inflation.

    ‘We have enough policy credibility this time that the public has not updated its expectations of future inflation based on recent inflation.’ (As opposed to what had to be done in the 70s, ie create a big unemployment rate, because everyone expected 10% inflation in perpetuity.)

    Inflation depends both upon unemployment and expected inflation.

    China shipping costs were crazy and are now down almost to pre-pandemic. Supply chain issues have been fading away. Rents on realtor.com appear to have peaked.
  • Jobless claims stayed low. Fed didn't pivot or pause. Waiting for slack in the labor market.
  • Fed's issue is not that Americans are making more money. It's that they're earnings are going up more than productivity is going up. - Santelli
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 03,2022
  • S Korea, 2022

    BTS brings $3.6b annually into S Korea

    7% of visitors there were motivated by the band

    K-drama and other series, films. Food.

    160k foreign students in S Korea versus less than 20k in 2003.

    What is the effect of their success/popularity on N Korea?

    How should S Korea leverage its soft power to get its goals? How can it enhance their national security, economy?



  • Buying a house next year will be with a 9% rate, it's expected

    Versus 3% before. That's like a 50% increase in the mortgage payment. - Zeihan
     
  • Economic booms give rise to weird money industries, when interest rates at 0 ('money is free'), past 15 years

    Chinese boom, Japanese boom, subprime, crypto (this boom).

  • Unlike US, some other countries don't HAVE demand from Millenials (the main demand source in economies), so can't just raise rates - Zeihan

    If they raise too much, it would be their last economic expansion.

    "This was always going to be sort of the end of the road for a lot of Asia and East Europe."

    So US 6% is like the minimum, because they need a lot of tools for next time.
     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 01,2022

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 28,2022
  • People talking about Fed going to stop hiking

    Market went down below 3800 because, partly, if felt like things were going not that great all over the place. What was going on in the UK, Bank of Japan having to intervene. Credit Suise maybe being insolvent.
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 27,2022
  • There's no momentum in the economy, say others.

    Yield curve, normalized for the level of rates, it's never been more inverted.

    US dollar is so strong, US manufacturing will face a hit due to overseas product that is cheaper.

    Last 6 recessions, 4 of them the economy grew 3 or so % right before the downturn.
     
  • Which Stocks Might Benefit After Biden Signed The Infrastructure Bill? | Seeking Alpha (If Infrastructure Spending)
     
    However, costs of materials and labor.
  • People who had owned Amazon and other Big Tech did so because they thought there was some safety in it, but are now seeing that's not the case.
  • Revenge of the Old Economy - Jeffrey Currie

    Due to the Under-investment Thesis. Poor returns / stagnating demand over the previous decade saw capital redirected into the new economy (all that Tech), starving the old economy of funds it needed to grow the supply base, infrastructure aged, creating a lot of the problems we're seeing today.

    Oil large cycles last 10 or 12 years in past instances (70s, 02 to 2014).

    The revenge of the old economy | Financial Times 2021: "Indeed, the old economy was overbuilt, debt-laden and over-polluted. While the old economy only represents about 35 per cent of global gross domestic product, it generated at least 2 times the corporate losses, had about 90 per cent of the non-financial debt and created 80 per cent of the emissions. It is no wonder why investors preferred Big Tech to oil and copper."
     
  • Tech stocks, in order to see good performance, need to show corporate benefits, but with these companies the question is not Can they? but rather Do they want to?

    They're owned by single people who have controlling shares, and don't need to listen to the market or even their boards. Normal market disciplinary forces don't really apply the same for them.

    The owners are so rich that even if the stock goes down 50% they're not too affected personally.

    They may have always been like that, but the stocks were going up so no one cared. Now there might be a renewed focus on Corporate Governance and how the governor responds.

    Amazon, long ago, was allowed by shareholders to lose money for years, but they explained where they were going.

    Emperors of old.

     
  • Some say chance of a soft landing is going to be considered more likely

    Real world inflation, some say, is falling (although not CPI), and so Fed is close to the end of its action. Meanwhile, employment rate is still 3.5%, spending is strong, spending is up 10% YoY.
  • Caterpillar had good earnings, and Industrials, Q3 2022
  • India

    Dependent-age population smaller than working-age population. Until around 2060.

    Did lots of reforms over past 8 years, allow record-high tax collection (small and medium sized enterprises brought in). Can spend on bridges, highways.
  • Is China no longer going to focus on the Market-Based Economy that had them rise in the world?
  • Dow up 4 straight weeks. Market up this week.

    People talking a lot about Is big tech done? Amazon, Facebook, etc, dropped significantly on negative quarterly report.

    Big tech was the market leader for years (top 5 in S&P, which is the only index people really consider to be the market, and those 5 make up 20% of the S&P. You could count on them, they consistently put up great numbers, and were almost seen as defensive). Now people are saying they got too big to really grow much anymore, and the markets will now maybe have new leaders. They don't know what that will be, but right now it looks like Industrials.

    For locations, developed countries look good say some. Lots of them. Countries with good governance.
     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 25,2022

  • Stock market bottoms before other things in the economy, usually (but we can't say for sure this time).

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 24,2022
  • Earnings and the state of the economy (US) Q3 2022

    Banks seem to be doing quite well. Brands like food and beverage, fashion, mixed results, some citing the recession-type things and others saying they're not seeing any such effect.

    Large-cap tech reports will come this week. Bar's already been lowered for Q3.

    Caterpillar and Boeing (companies that are outside big cap tech) (bellwether type names) will give an idea about the effect of the strong US dollar and the US economy and what can be / is being purchased.

    All the goings-on in China, how hammered Chinese tech stocks have been by the government there.

    An investor quoted Jack Ma (I don't know when he said it), "I think among the richest men in China, few have good endings."

    If you are a business-owner in China, you are fearful, the investor said. It's not subtle.

    Everyone also wants to see what Apple does. Such a revaluation/reset in tech names.
     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 18,2022
  • Netflix beat on top and bottom of earnings, added 2.4m subs

    Talk of 'recession-proof,' because 'if you lose your job you need it even more,' Josh Brown quote
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 17,2022
  • Fed is not going to stop until either something breaks in the Capital Markets and the Fed pivots, OR earnings come down not 2, 3, 4% but rather 10% - Chris Harvey

    Something breaks = collapse of a currency, something in Ukraine ...

    CPI is the Fed's focus. They need it down. For their credibility, also.

    Interest rates, demand, supply chain, are rolling over now, so inflation looks like it might be going to cool. The fundamentals have to come down, and Harvey thinks we'll have a recession.
     
  • Goldman undertaking a big reshuffle.

    Maybe because underperforming or having a 'maturity outlook.' To reduce costs, even if it's at the managing director level.

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 16,2022

  • Out of the media products (subscriptions) being paid for, dating apps are the one that they're most not satisfied with, so they might get cut. 94% satisfied with TV and streaming, 72% satisfied with dating apps.
  • Contrary to expectations by lots of people over the past months, subscriptions are not being cut back much.

    18% of household budgets is spent on subscriptions services (including products and services like Amazon).

    Another surprise is that for a lot of Americans, they see Amazon as a media outlet, not a products and sales site (Amazon buys and deliveries).

     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 14,2022
  • Exclusive: Musk’s SpaceX says it can no longer pay for satellite services in Ukraine | World News - YouTube 
  • Is Amazon more a utility, or more a retailer with shipping?

    Headlines this week include Amazon workers striking (has been going on for a while now).
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 05,2022
  • 'Apple is a kind of mature company now. It's not going to come out with the next big tech product like it did with the iPhone.' - an investor
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 03,2022
  • Housing

    Discouraged buyers and affordability challenges.

    (2008 was about distressed sellers and foreclosures and the inability to hold onto your property when you went through any kind of job loss ... and THAT was about excessive egregious credit.)

    Prices too high with the higher (4%) rates. Prices have dropped in recent months. Even sellers, who after selling have to buy another home, are discouraged from buying.

    Before most sale pressure was the outskirts of the cities (remote work ability allowed this). Now it's both, inside and outskirts of the city. Most pressure in affordable units.

    Not a good market for flipping (into a softer market, expected). Also not a good market for buying a house you can't afford.


     
  • Basically everyone is bearish. I don't hear anyone being bullish now
  • New hires are down, although firings (new jobless claims) remain too strong for inflation to cool

    However, some poll said 70% of Americans are seeking secondary work to pay bills. Whatever that means though.
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 23,2022
  • Housing: There’s a ‘huge in-migration’ into ‘lower-cost areas,’ analyst says - YouTube 
  • Tom Lee appeared to show signs of flagging his optimism in most recent CNBC interview.

    First time I've seen that.
  • Long Term Investors Can Start Buying in This Market

    some say
  • 60/40 portfolio is good now, for the first time in 11 years

    1-year bonds yield 4%.
     
  • Third part collections are very low

    Probably the leading edge for an indicator of recession (jobless claims would be one of the last) - Josh Brown

     
  • Cross-messaging

    Fedex and Walmart warning. Meanwhile, Ralph Lauren and VISA saying they aren't seeing ANY sign of stress.
     
  • Known brands did well in 2020-2021

    Draft Kings, Telsa, Peloton. New investors with RobinHood accounts knew what these companies were and bought their fav companies. Apple.

     
  • Josh Brown and Michael Batnick had an investors conference (like 1000 investors and a group total of a couple thou)

    Number 1 thing people concerned about is housing. Almost 1/5 of the economy, when you consider building etc, banks etc. It's nothing like 2008 though (everything from creditworthiness to supply/demand looks stronger).

    2 years ago housing became the national pastime.

    Bid/ask spread now is massive, and the number of homes sold in big cities are down like 40 - 60%. Sellers (who bought a year or two ago during the bubble) are anchored to a price that's not real anymore. However, the selling prices are still up like 20%.

    There are 80m homeowners in the US. 5m people are looking for a house. Although the current owners of houses have overwhelmingly good credit, new buyers (rates recently doubled for the first time ever) are maybe shut out of buying a home. So what does that mean if no one can buy a home now (although those who already have them are doing fine)? The number 1 step in building credit for Americans is buying a house.

    Renters are seeing 20% increases. Potential for a competing-against-landlords (who have all cash or Wall Street financing) situation. This is different from 2008 also. Institutional buyers (like Blackrock) operate in certain cities a lot, so if they're in that city you could be priced out.
     
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 22,2022
  • Has been through two economic drawdowns, has a dividend, and buys back stock, quality management, discount to market valuation - the things Leon Cooperman looks for in current stock market
     
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 17,2022
  • People have been saying the Fed has an integrity problem now

    15 months ago they said the rate in mid-2023 would be zero. Now they're saying 4%. Larry Summers says he wouldn't be surprised if it was higher than that.
  • Shopping Centers

    After all the (dubious, a few would say) talk that after the pandemic shopping was going to be completely changed (paradigm) and no one would go to stores anymore, some have noted that it was that very pandemic that showed that retail shops had their place.

    Unable to buy needed items online due to shortages, people went to local stores, particularly shopping centers. Also because they felt they needed to get out of the house. Curbside pickup developed, so going into stores was not necessary. Stores looked again at investing in their trucking. Companies have focused on eCom for 15 years and are now looking again at their store fleets. (Pricing power to landlords, resulting in higher earnings and dividends for them.) Stores realized the bulk of their sales still come from traditional shopping centers or malls.

    Also, many people moved out of the city. A trend towards living in homes. In those areas, the main shopping destination is large shopping centers, malls. Going to shopping centers was like the only 'acceptable' place to go during lockdown.

    The US is over-retailed. The big shopping centers consolidate their power, while some malls do flag.

     
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 16,2022
  • EU has stocked up their energy reserves to 82%, already above their target of 80% for October

    Confidence in EU growing they can go through winter without severe economic problems or rationing.

    Russia selling its energy to China and India, but at a greater-than-ever discount. R getting a weaker trade position due to lack of potential trading partners.

     
  • Russian economy holding up versus sanctions et al better than many expected

    Although doing worse than Europeans who are suffering from the sanctions imposed on Russia as well.

    R. central bank moved quickly to impose capital controls and sharply hike interest rates (20%, incentivizing Russians to keep their money in Russian banks) partially stabilized the ruble. Higher oil prices offset the Russia discount. Rising sales of energy to China, India and Turkey offset decline in sales to Europe. (Oil revenues estimated down 20%). The central bank forced companies to convert 80% of the money they earn overseas into rubles. Demand for R. currency helps prop it up. R citizens were prevented from converting more than $10k into other currencies.

    = high interest rate, forced buying of the ruble, and currency near impossible to sell.

    = we don't know the true exchange rate. Ruble can only really be BOUGHT in significant quantity.

    = ruble appears high in value, but few would buy it, some say, unless they were forced to.
  • Lots of active managers are telling their clients 'Just buy and hold, don't look at your statements in the short term. You have to invest long term. And investing when the market is low is better than when it is high when you're doing long-term investing.' Their sentiment, however, is largely that the market will continue to bear in the nearterm (couple months, midterms, etc).
  • Fed will be done with hiking early next year - Tom Lee

    Because inflation has peaked, and will go from 8% today to 4% early next year to 2.5% later next year, according to the bond market, Lee said.

    That's not changed by the discouragingly high CPI report we just saw. Maybe the level of the hikes will change but not the timeline.

    "When we see markets convinced (2 decade high) inflation is broken, PE is going to go up dramatically." (Maybe this will be seen even in the October CPI).

    Recency bias accounts for the prevailing bearishness.

    With Fedex, taking down expectations might be true for some smaller beta, but PE is going to change dramatically when inflation risk is taken out of equity risk premium, Lee said.
  • The US is big enough that it will leverage the rest of the world down - Rick Santelli

    Eurozone CPI inflation up 9%. Pound at lowest level since 1985. 

    Developing global recession. For US, maybe a rolling recession (different parts get recession at  different times).
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 13,2022
  • During uncertain and changing times, differentiation stands out more - Bill Ready
     
    Pinterest has actual people curating.
  • Incentivized to invest in automation, with labor rates rising
  • Chequeing deposits 4x pre-pandemic. Lots of surface liquidity. But demand is struggling (housing, everyone is just buying groceries not electronics or clothes) - Paul Christopher
  • "There's no way globalization breaks for the Chinese in a positive way." - Zeihan
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 29,2022
  • Recession signs?

    'Lost my job, can't pay rent' Google search term up 500% (in how much time?

    MLB down compared with 2019 (but was going down before the pandemic). How much is a postpandemic fear of crowds?

    Generic instead of brands up like 20 or 30% maybe.

    Mens' underwear sales (no data yet, just a sign they're watching).
     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 20,2022
  • Russian 'Stars Coffee' to replace Starbucks

    With a brand design basically a Starbucks ripoff.

    Why would they not take this opportunity to create a global brand competitor?
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 19,2022
  • All midterm years result in higher market between October's election day and June - Joe Teranova
  • Over 3 million barrels of oil will be lost by November, says Husseini Energy's Sadad Al Husseini - YouTube 
  • Sept 6 will be the day many workers are expected back at the office (or not)

    Those who may not be expected back: Those with children or family needs as reasons to be at home, coders and journalists and workers who do better in a quiet environment, and people who were hired remotely and don't live in the same place as the business and never did.

    "They can't take your desk away from you if you're sitting at it," was an expression in the 80s when people didn't want to lose their jobs. Workers have had a lot of power recently in the relationship, but that may shift now (many are talking about it doing so).

    Some Millenials and GenZers, who have lived their lives online and virtually (and therefore are considered best suited to not want to go to the office) are saying they want to go to the office to show their employers what they can do. Those who were hired remotely have never had the opportunity to meet their managers and coworkers physically. "When is someone gonna tag me so I can actually fight for the team?"

    Some say to move up you need to be there in person. Who promotes someone they've never met? Who puts someone in charge who's never interacted with people? How do you share experience with upcoming members? Why should you offer fulltime work to someone who's not there physically, instead of just contract or part time?
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 18,2022
  • The 10-year is at 2.8. "That's hardly where it was in the 80s. The 10-year should properly reflect inflation expectations and at 2.8 it's really a market that thinks inflation gets back towards 2% after a couple years." - Tom Lee

    "And then people talk about the inverted yield curve between 10-year and 2-year. But what they have to keep in mind is that if inflation for the next few years is at 4, the 2-year HAS to be higher than the 10. So you're gonna get a forced inversion just because the contours of inflation and it doesn't mean that the curve on a real basis inverted. So I think the bond market is telling us a better story than the equity investors wanna believe."


  • "Last 9 months investors have been convinced inflation will be with us for years, and it's very sticky, but it's proven to be a lot less sticky, and maybe even more sensitive to gasoline falling, because of how gasoline moves through the services CPI.

    "And if that's correct, we are tracking more towards a soft landing ... and that would mean that markets have already discounted much of the Fed tightening."

    Tom Lee
     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 16,2022
  • Peak leverage in labor market, voiced

    5% down to 10m open jobs in June.
    Pulling back as they have less success in hiring, and they're reassessing how they operate their business. But still frothy labor market.
     
    The employers doing well are recruiting talent rather than posting job openings.
  • US housing starts fell 10% in July
  • Shipping costs may be peaking (but costs coming down really a 2023 event)

    Labor costs still up.
  • Crowding out effect - Scott Mushkin

    LA food prices up 25% in past 18 months.

    Not a lot of money left over.

    Some people 'being impoverished.'
     
    What will the holiday look like?
  • Lots of inventory overhang right now

    Apparel, barbecues, etc.
  • Three stages of a bear market - Bookvar

    1. Valuation adjustment (we've seen this).

    2. Economic impact and earnings impact of a slowdown (we're beginning the first phase of this), particularly profit margins.

    3. Everyone throws in the towel.

    He expects 50 basis points and then 25s.

     
  • The tightness of the labor is more than the Fed expected, so it will have to generate a slowdown long enough to push the unemployment rate up well above 4% - William Dudley

    The current wage trend is 4 or 5%, which is not consistent with 2% inflation, because inflation is high and labor market is tight. Ratio of unfilled jobs to workers is 1.8 to 1.

    The Fed says it wants 2% inflation, but he thinks they actually want 3%.
     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 15,2022
  • Growth will be difficult for China, says Yale's Stephen Roach - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 13,2022
  • iPhone 14 to be manufactured in India (as well as China): Reports | Latest World News | WION - YouTube  
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 12,2022
  • Americans are using credit card points to but food now (in past 2 years they would save them and use them for something bit like a dish washer). Credit card spending overall has now eclipsed pre-pandemic. Consumers have not had to use credit for a couple years, but now they are ok because they have credit.

    Gas prices have dropped a lot, and so have borrowing rates. Re-fis are back.
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 11,2022
  • AI, internet-based business models, Net Zero, emerging market consumer, and top brands (last one a sort of moat play)

    Scott Chronert's 'Thematic Thirty' stocks as, he says, we shift out of markets being driven by inflation, recession, and Fed concerns, and into more stock (pick) -based investing.

    More of a longer-term structural growth bias, which is their means of negotiating this onoging Fed-on-Fed-off economic-recession-or-not situation. A path to look across an economic valley to the other side.

    Because the market almost at their target for S&P, investing needs to shift away from an index focus around traditional macro variables to a much more bottom-up focus.

    The first half of the year, the major multiple compression on the initial inflection and rates was on the growth side of the market, 'which is gonna align with a lot of the themes' he's talking about.

    The rate effect of multiples has been mostly priced in. June low.

    They follow 99 themes. But there are a lot of companies in the S&P that don't follow this thematic approach.

     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 09,2022
  • Carried Interest loophole, legislation closes it (we'll see)

    In the top tax bracket, instead of paying 43% they're paying 23%, as if income was investment income, some.

    Money changing hands for legislation, seen in action, according to Josh Brown.

    Sinema of Arizona.

  • $92b market for inexpensive ($150 usd) cell phones.

     
  • Biden signed a 'China competition bill' Chips Act, to 'boost US chipmakers'

    Haven't looked yet what else is in this bill.

  • "The relationships between all of the tools that we use to regulate the economy (inflation measures, growth, interest rates) and the economy might not apply anymore." - Peter Zeihan (but this echoes in vein things I've heard from other over the past year or two

    "For the past 500 years it's been all about figuring out how to maximize your share of a pie that is steadily growing. ... As long as there is more technology and more people growth is easy, and regulating growth in such a situation is something that we have a lot of experience in, but that's not the case anymore."

  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 26,2022
  • "There is no longer a secular growth story that works without a cyclical for the global advertising business." - Josh Brown

    Apple and Google down since Snap's weak quarterly report. They're so big now that anything in the overall economy affects them, is the idea. They're now seen more as a proxy for the overall macro, is the idea.


     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 25,2022
  • Zimbabwe to introduce gold coins as local currency
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 15,2022
  • "Maybe a mild recession is not the worst thing for some of these companies because it gives you pretext to fire some low performers." - paraphrased Josh Brown


  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 13,2022
  • Non-performing auto loans

    Repos. Although you won't lose your house right away if you miss a payment, if you don't make a payment for your car they'll repossess it.

    Loan to value 140%. (What you could get for the car if you sold it compared to what you paid for it).

    Anecdotal is that most of the repos are from loans for 2020 and 2021. Lots of people making $2500 with car payments of $1000 (at that income level most financial advisers recommend $500).

    Prime repos (high credit scores) usually is 2% and is now 4%.

    Sub-prime repos (towing a car out of a driveway) have doubled to 11%.
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 12,2022

  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 07,2022

  • Overlevered.

    Reputational effects.
     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 06,2022
  • "A lot of the money in oil and gas stocks is sort of hot money and is New Money, and they're not familiar with the volatility we've experienced over the past number of years. The more volatility and the more pull backs, the harder it is for the sector to deploy capital, and the harder it is to attract capital the higher the oil price needs to be and the higher the return on that investment needs to be to get that capital deployed" - Josh Young

  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 03,2022

  • "Reestablishing the gold standard, in Rubles, funded by China"
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 02,2022
  • Gravitas: Global stocks lost $13 trillion in first half of 2022 - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 01,2022
  • Survivorship bias skews art world investment value

    Stuff that goes down, people don't even want to sell it, so it doesn't get factored into the index. If values go up, people do sell. So it seems like prices just go up in the art world of investment.
  • Over the past week, although markets had like their first good week a week before, many commentators and analysts are saying very negative things
     
  • We need more capex spending, more pipelines built and more drilling, in order to transition properly to clean energy. The Fed can't change a supply problem (with hydrocarbons) no matter how it acts. It turns into much higher labor costs, energy costs, food.

    The US is begging SA to pump more while trying to remove the Iranian National Guard as terrorists, as well as the Houthi rebels.

    US is reducing restrictions on Venezuela (a 'known terrorist and funder of terrorism') at the same time as killing the Keystone Pipeline which would carry crude from the US's ally, partner and neighbor Canada to US refineries that can refine heavy crude.

    US politicians (Biden included, markedly) are vilifying Big Oil, threatening them (saying they would turn them off).

    Adding windfall taxes and things to energy is just saying we want prices a lot higher, Bass said, instead of getting behind them, as the highest energy producer in the world (way ahead of the second, Russia).

    In 7 years, the first nuclear energy will open in Wyoming.

    He thinks it's the golden age for private capitol investing in hydrocarbons for the next 10 or 15 years. Demand is inelastic and growing, and there's no alternative energy that could get there in time. There aren't enough minerals to put into the wind turbines and things.

     
  • When you print 40% more M2 (money in circulation), you're gonna get about 40% inflation (some things will cost more or less). Coupled with really poorly thought-through energy transition policy. - Kyle Bass
  • The Fed has just started to take liquidity out. It's going to take $100b out every month for 10 months maybe. He said wait to invest until the Fed starts to use the word 'pause'. He thinks a lot of the Fed's job is already done. Food and other costs will continue up unless there's a serious recession, but he thinks there'll be a mild one. Markets lower going into November, he said. - Kyle Bass
  • With input costs (energy, labor, raw materials in commodities) is causing many businesses to consider shutting down.
  • Example: US has tariffs on China for steel and aluminum

    Chinese state actors were basically giving free electricity to aluminum smelters in China to undercut price in America, that took US's capicity utilization of US's aluminum smelters from high 80s to 70 in one year. And when you drop below 80% capacity utilization you end up losing money as an industry. China was acting in an uneconomic fashion to try to put the US's industry out of business so the US would have a further reliance on China's ability to produce aluminum (strategic values for military and industry).

    So Yellen saying "You could save 8 basis points of inflation if you took those tariffs off" is ignorant of national security. He mentioned that if wall street was making decisions we'd all be speaking Chinese immediately, because they make short term decisions for specific profits, and politicians are required to think long term and consider national security.

    Kyle Bass' take

  • "It's really difficult to engage with [global] partners" - Kyle Bass (a monitorist at heart)

    ... "like China, like Russia, like Iran, like North Korea. China mostly. It doesn't share the same value system. They don't share the same legal system. We have a rule of law, they rule by law. And when it comes into times when there's global conflict or friction you see that globalization can lead you down a path that puts you in a very difficult position from a national security perspective."

    "It was probably a real bad idea to let 95% of the pharmaceutical ingredients for our antibiotics to be made in China. And have the global chip shortage around the world that really emanated from Taiwan, which makes 40% of the chips we need for just about everything."

    Various things being outsourced has to be thought of in terms of risk assessment, he said. 3-5 years away still from being self-sufficient on the chip side. Antibiotics and supply chains aren't rocket science, they just need to be reshored. While we watch the friction increase almost daily between the US and China. Xi, the most leverage China has is now, and every day that goes by they have less leverage, so things might happen sooner than later. China's media is really pushing the Taiwan issue.

    With Ukraine. For a long time things boiled, and one day war happened. Russia's control over Europe also could be said to be decreasing with time, as their supplier of energy.

    Because the White House changes every 4 or 8 years, the US needs a team that transcends administrations and needs a better grand strategy, he said.

     
  • Crypto lost $1t over the past few months, and people say a big part is because they can't attract new buyers

    The space operates like a ponzi scheme, where it takes new money to pay out old money. Crypto still has no inherent value (use). It's still speculation rather than utility.

  • Semi conductors versus longterm bonds being analyzed by CNBC

    Semis down versus longterm bonds up.

    Talking about going back to 2020 levels as a baseline. That's because then we were not in a rising rate environment, we had a huge tailwind to the overall market, a huge pull forward for semiconductors, hardware, everything across the board, but now we're in a rising rate environment, and everything is calculated on discounted cashflow. That's why tech stocks will run (upwards in value) when rates are low and not when we're in a rising rate environment.

    2020 might not even be the right thing to look at, because then there was no inflation, and rates were at zero. So equities maybe should be valued even worse than that.

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 29,2022
  • What's good for Robin Hood is the thing that's worst for it's users. Josh Brown's point

    Anyone who uses the app a ton is going to lose money, which is bad for them. But this is what Robinhood needs to have profits or to grow
  • "They gotta stop manipulating long rates. They have to let the free market do that." - Dan Morehead

    He also said that while 30% of Americans are trying to buy a home, 20% of all homes sold last year were sold to institutional speculators with money borrowed from the Fed.


     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 27,2022
  • Wall Street was looking for basically anyone who was willing to come, or even log in for them, hiring, but now they're looking to cut back

    They hired thousands wach. JPM and Goldman hired like around 20% more. Wall Street is a boom and bust thing. When the deals are coming you have to have people.

    YoY:

    IPSs down 90%
    High-Yield debt offerings down 75%
    M&A down 30%
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 26,2022
  • Consumer confidence is lower now than after 9.11, and after the 2008 financial crisis, said Rick Newman
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 24,2022
  • The market has priced in a recession probably, but not a consumer credit hit, probably, which might come after a recession
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 23,2022
  • Oil prices down 8 straight days

  • UK is having a big rail strike

    Significant percentage of rail network closed. I think the demand is higher pay.

     
  • About 100 tech companies are downsizing right now

    Possible end to employment-related inflation.


  • The biggest increase in military spending since the 90s. 40% for air force 20% on the Navy. 17% for ground forces. 35% to refill ammunition depos and upgrade cyberwarfare and kit.

    They want 35 Lockheed-Martin F-35s, 60 Boeing Chinook helicopters, and 15 Eurofighter typhoon jets. They'll also spend on R&D, combat cloud, combat air systems (6th gen fighter jet), submarine tech, frigates, artillery, tanks. In cooperation with other European countries and the US.

    They don't currently have a single combat-ready division, reportedly. They plan to have a combat ready division in 2025.

    What was their use to NATO? "On paper" they have 350 Pumas (150 can be used), 51 Tiger helicopters (9 ready). They use analog (not encrypted) radios.

    30% of their navy is seaworthy. Their army has 200k soldiers, down from 1990's 500k.

    They're planning to up their spending to 2% of GDP on defense.

    But they have to get approval to pass this. Germany has a lot of pacifism, but it's currently anyway getting a lot of support.

    An interesting thing in Germany is when there's bidding for a defense contract, the loser can challenge the decision, which can stall things for years. German contractors do sue each other sometimes, delaying things for years also.

      
     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 22,2022
  • In the USA, 30 companies control 95% of the $31b chicken industry

    Processing 1.5m birds per week.

    The Shocking Ways Lobbyists Eliminate Competition in the Farming Industry - YouTube  
  • USA at the beginning or at the cusp of a recession, said Bookvar

    What's better? A fast recession and fast recovery, or slow?

    He thinks the Fed will tolerate a 3 or 4% inflation rather than try to push it down to 2%, leaning more toward helping the economy rather than control inflation. The labor force is keeping inflation elevated.

    Everyone still has money in the bank, so inflation will stay.



     
  • Housing


    Doesn't this chart mean, though, 'everywhere'?


     
  • Three straight days of green for markets

    It's at about 15ish times forward earnings, not historically cheap, but considering the concentration in bigcap tech stocks, equal weighted it's more like 13x. "Around fair value."
     
    Small cap 600 under 11x.

    No one really saying that means the value is good.

    People looking toward earnings forecasts / revisions for info.
  • What does a communicative Fed and not wanting to surprise anybody do except raise the VIX? - Jim Paulsen

    He comes from the 70s where the idea was the opposite.

    Every meeting the VIX goes up and then when the meeting's over it does a little better.
    Is it helpful in helping investors decide what's going to happen?

    Paulsen said it might be better watching the Fed's boss, ie What's going on in the economy. And then the next boss is the bond market. They're both saying the Fed better not overdo the tightening.
     
    Relatedly, Tony Pasquariello said. "The moment the Fed says 'We're done,' or 'What's priced into the script is as far as we'll go,' the market's going to rally back, and will ease financial conditions in so doing. And that's the kind of cat and mouse game between the Fed and financial markets."
  • Core inflation (CPI, PPI, PCE) has rolled over YoY for last 2 months running - Jim Paulsen

    The first time they've all rolled over at the same time since this began. The commodity thrust used to be all commodity markets, and now it's just energy, and now that's waning (natgas and crude both down). Wage inflation has clearly slowed.

    He still thinks we'll be more concerned about recession, but just less about inflation.


     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 21,2022
  • For the first time in months, bearish-take market experts just starting to be less bearish

    Just days ago everyone saying everything was so negative.

    In part because Fed for years, even through the Great Recession, was increasing money supply. Steadily. That saw a big jump of like 40% more in 2020 and then continued. But now the Fed is finally going the other way, so there will be less liquidity.

    Also, a lot of money has been lost in the stock market, which belonged to that excess that was printed.

    Larry Summers called for a 5% jobless rate over 5 years to ease inflation. Right now it's 3.6%. So a loss of 2.2m jobs, then going through that for 5 years.


     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 19,2022
  • Vacation travel becoming 'less discretionary' according to Marriott CEO

    "More people are going to take vacations regardless of what happens to the economy."
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 16,2022
  • Pakistan minister asks people to cut Chai tea drinking by a few cups per day

    The government doesn't really have money to import more tea on loan.

    They imported $640m worth of tea in 2020, the biggest importer in the world.

    Forex reserves went from $16b to $10b in the last couple months.

    Some say it seems unlikely the plea will have any effect, since tea drinking is done at home and isn't easy to monitor. 220m people in the country. The leaders of the country are not expected to be cutting down themselves, some say.

    Pakistan is having long power cuts (up to 16 hours) in the energy shortage. All types of energy. 45 degree C temperatures these days.

    Beijing operates lots of power plants in Pakistan. Right now those plants are turned off because Pakistan hasn't paid the Chinese companies. The IMF asked but China refused to renegotiate the agreements.

    Pakistan had made LNG deals with Italy and Qatar, but those countries reportedly are selling their LNG to more lucrative markets (Europe) instead. The suppliers have to pay penalties (30% reportedly) but still they make profits by not delivering to Pakistan. Pakistan has to buy LNG at spot prices from the market.

    They could try to get an IMF bailout but to get one they would have to remove all fuel subsidies. So the government doesn't have many options, and is asking people to not consume energy.


     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 15,2022

  • Father's Day is second busiest t-shirt printing time after Christmas for Amazon
     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 14,2022
  • Prices are being talked about nonstop

    When someone tells you the price, you say, "What?"

    Americans say.
     
    Wages up but people aren't happy because they can't buy stuff affordably.
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 12,2022
  • Tasty burger restaurants in place of McDonald's in Russia

    800 outlets.

    "Russians can do fast food just as well." - Some guy


     
  • Worry about reduced economic productivity and activity, not about inflation, it's been said
  • $180 barrel is where demand would start to stop, said Mark Rothman, so we're nowhere near that


  • Oil market, where relationships matter

    OPEC, Russia, Ukraine, Venezuela, Europe, Iran.

  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 10,2022
  • Kawasaki factory in Nebraska offering 9-2 shift at $19/hour

    Labor market very tight. Everyone is hiring.

    The shift is based around school hours, to try to get people who were not doing manufacturing before (mothers).
     
  • Bolivia inflation 1% for past year versus Latin America average of 10%

    The Boliviano is not fixed in exchange to the USD. Their exchange was established over 10 years ago when the authorities there injected dollars into the countries reserves. The money came from great wealth that came from nationalizing petroleum production (Bolivia still has a state monopoly in petrol and distributes it to the country, and this has totally absorbed the impact of changes in gas price). It reduced costs of imported products. Bolivia ALSO produces most of the products Bolivians consume.

    Bolivia also has certificates of exportation granted by government. When that product is not available in proper supply for the internal market at a price the government considers appropriate, the government can deny a certificate for exportation.

    For this low inflation, Bolivia is considered by some to have a lot of debt.

    Is it a disincentive to production in Bolivia? Does the State spend more than it brings in? Will the country just consume its reserves?

    The government isn't going to change policy. It says that would be to translate the burden of inflation onto the majority of the population.

    Bolivia is said to be the only Latin American country that is controlling inflation.

     
  • Docusign beat on revenues and missed on EPS

    Something that has worked over the past years but now doesn't seem to be enough, some say, and that investors now want to see actual profits.
  • QE and low interest rates have resulted in record debt levels for a lot of countries, where consumers, businesses and governments took advantage ... and may have become dependent on cheap debt. As rates rise, these parties will see hightened costs for their large debt loads.
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 09,2022
  • For months now, everyday economy news has several experts saying recession is coming and there's no soft landing, and others saying recession is unlikely
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 08,2022
  • US mortgage demands is at a 22-year low
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 02,2022
  • Bitcoin is fluctuating a few thousand above and below $30k
  • People, including Boockvar, think inflation has probably topped out (although how much it will come down is another question)

    We're in an information gap right now. Earnings were flat. We don't have a Fed meeting for a couple weeks but we already know what they're going to do. Next catalyst is in July when we review Q2 results.

    Boockvar wrote Bill Dudley is kind of the truth serum man of the Fed.

  • May, 2022
  • May 31,2022

  • 7 weeks straight of the week closing lower for markets, and then this week it was up a bit
  • Some say supply chain bottleneck loosening up

    ... part from perhaps less demand, perhaps from actual loosening.

    JPM reported LA ports are looser than previous months.

    BOA said on trucking that capacity is higher than previous months.

    Retailers are talking about double digit inventory gains, so some think they might now order less or not the same stuff. We might see store shelves full again and things going to the clearing isle.

    Core PCE price index has been sideways for 4 months (and down YoY).

    People looking at inventory to sales ratio. How quickly can retailers turn over what they have.




     
  • May, 2022
  • May 29,2022
  • 70% of US consumers 'would rather wait for a new product than pay for it right now' - Kearney Consumer Inst.

    Beauty is doing well, as part of the things people haven't been able to buy much recently. Fancy dresses and suits at Macey's. Wardrobe refresh. Weddings.

    Down: streaming, fitness bikes, plant-based meat.

    Now consumers want to get out of the house. 8% bump expected in miles traveled this Memorial Day weekend.


     
  • May, 2022
  • May 28,2022
  • US now going to have to 'decide between two policy mistakes' - El-Erian

    The US dollar is just too strong for the rest of the world.

    The cost of living crisis in the West is the risk of famine in commodity-producing countries. How much does a country like Egypt subsidize (probably most) and how much pass on to the consumer?

    UK imposed a Windfall Tax (to protect most vulnerable people in economy).
  • May, 2022
  • May 26,2022
  • "I think we've seen enough wealth destruction that we are finally seeing demand destruction all over the economy, and the market people are picking up on that." - Josh Brown

  • May, 2022
  • May 25,2022

  • The Chinese likened the tax cuts to 'fertilizer' applied directly to the 'roots of the economy.'

    The numbers are added to tax cuts already implemented this year.

    #China
     
  • May, 2022
  • May 24,2022
  • This is where the market is the economy - Batnick

    "... because they're using their stock as currency to pay employees."

    "... in specific parts of the economy." - Josh Brown. In tech, not the housing market in Okl. Will be felt in housing, spending, and tax receipts in Cali.

    Snapchat's stock options paid to employees are now 40% underwater.

    Stock is down 75% from highs, down like 40% from IPO.
     
  • Coming into 2022 versus now, by WFC strategist

    We thought you needed multiple compression. You got that. We thought interest rates and especially real rates needed to normalize. You got that. We thought that the Fed had to get motion, whether it's related to the balance sheet or to raising rates. That's been happening. Now we have a 15 or 20% pullback depending on where you look in the market.

    Two last things we needed to see: We needed to see rates come down, and we needed to see some softening of the Fed rhetoric, which is what we seem to be seeing in the short term.

    We're not seeing indiscriminate selling as in the last few weeks.

  • Usually stocks and bonds don't go down together forever, because it's a self-correcting mechanism - Chris Harvey

    Stocks go down, you start to create more value. Bonds go down, and you have a discounting mechanism makes your terminal value higher and all of a sudden we find a bottom.



  • (notes:)

    New to us: a situation of high nominal growth. Nominal growth = real growth + inflation. Stagflation = the high nominal growth is absorbed by higher prices but output (production) doesn't keep up (low real growth).

    Labor productivity has been positive so far (output rose), but nominal spending was far greater.

    A reduction in nominal spending is the only viable solution, because it looks like productivity can't be raised much. Economies are approaching capacity constraints. Note: a simple raise in rates isn't necessarily 'tightening' unless it is relative to what is discounted and relative to economic conditions. Note: short-term interest rates.

    Inflation is increasingly entrenched and supplies and inventories are low.

    Stocks: Companies that are most liquidity-sensitive and longer-duration cash flow, have seen the biggest value effect.

    War in Ukraine: big effect on commodities (R a supplier). Normal short-term flight to quality (weeks or a month) and afterwards unfolding macro pressures typically dominate.

    Expect reinforced capex cycle (surge in demand). Lingering bottlenecks. Capexs to boost efficiency. Particularly industrials and materials (companies reshoring to US from Asia due to supplychain disruptions). Automation. Software and info processing equipment over past couple years.

    Governments' choice: tighten to control inflation and face a potential economic downturn, or don't tighten and allow inflation.

    Household balance sheets stronger (than 2018). Lots of cash in bank, appreciated home values and stocks. Poor people wealthier than past 60  years.

    Banks are very liquid. Money printing found its home there. Reallocating into loans.

     
  • New home sales fell 17% in US
  • Huge money debt and liquidity injected, internal conflict in US (populism), rising of new great powers - the three things right now, according to Ray Dalio

    Where are we in the monetary policy?

    One man's debts are another man's financial assets. So they won't be able to raise interest rates to a high enough level to provide a real return to investors. 3% or 4% won't be enough to compensate for the inflation rate.

    Paradigm shift. People believed everything that happened in the past 10 years, and then they get a surprise, and then they start to change.

    Do I think cash is a safe asset, or bonds are a safe asset? Am I getting a real return? There's gonna be a supply-demand balance. The Fed, individuals, foreigners, and the US gov (to fund its deficit) are all selling/going to sell. Going to produce a squeeze because so much money was put out.

    What's going to get you a real return? Real assets. Like the 70s.

    Everybody's wrong. Everybody wants everything to go up. They keep giving you money. They want you to buy everything. They hype it. The world is holding all these financial assets. You're going to have an environment of negative real returns.
     
  • May, 2022
  • May 20,2022
  • Gas at $5 is not a problem, but gas at next month $5.50 then $6 etc. is a problem, because people say This is never going to stop and we have to cut spending

    So tightening quickly has another thing in its favor.

  • Crypto, and some stocks, within their niche

    So if you have the best crypto (or company), but there's a ton of crap cryptos and they're all going down, some to zero, your good one will go down too as a part of that. Part is news, part sentiment, part that the people who bought those bad ones also bought the good one and they sell them at the same time, bringing prices lower.
     
  • The very traits that would have allowed you to survive the crash in 2020 are the traits that would have killed you in the most recent regime change (out of tech etc into commodities and energy) - The Compound guys

    Nobody's in a rush now. It's not like 2020 and 2021 where everything went up every day (and had like 5% drops sometimes) and you couldn't even think straight, just saying 'I can't believe I'm not in this'.
  • Defaults on cars in US

    First time it's been in the news I've seen. Sub-prime car loans.

    Last couple years, car prices and used car prices went up, but there was tons of money from the Fed, so people kept buying things. Loans went up. A lot of borrowers don't have much for a downpayment, or have negative equity. But the car value of course depreciates, so if they were to sell a year or two later they wouldn't be able to pay off that loan.
     
    Those loans are owned lots by hedge funds pursuing higher return rates. You don't see a lot of banks jumping into that.
  • May, 2022
  • May 18,2022
  • Dividends (secure-ish ones) might be the investment play of this year or the next couple years

    Can't rely on valuation expansion anymore. So it's just dividends and earnings. And from companies with good balance sheets to ensure the ability to do so for a while.

  • US markets drop between 3 and 5 % for the 3 markets

    So-called 'safe haven' stocks are not immune. Consumer staples like Walmart and Target are seeing slightly higher revenues (nominally, not factoring inflation) but much higher costs (labor, transport, supply chains), and they are not able to pass these costs on to the consumer any more.

    So all stocks went down today almost. Every sector.

    Customers are buying groceries but aren't buying hard goods where stores like Walmart have a slightly higher margin.

    Yes, wages are up, but not as much as inflation. The highest cost increases are food and energy, and that's funneling away spending that would otherwise go to more profitable areas of selling.

    But the US economy NEEDS lower demand in order to trend prices lower.
     
  • May, 2022
  • May 17,2022
  • Corporations in US have low debt, high in cash



     
    The stock market is $35t (so companies could buy back like a 5th of their stock).
  • What affects stocks


    Josh Brown said it missed the most important thing: industry. The best company in the worst industry isn't going to work.

  • US in situation for older adults where their ability to retire is based on how they invested money since they were 20

    Versus social security in other countries.
  • May, 2022
  • May 14,2022
  • China and decoupling from 'factory China'

    Said that China is indispensable to global supply.

    China makes way more stem graduates (now needed by others). So many production facilities (Japan also has quite a lot). Apple's supply chain. China wants foreign firms there (like Apple). Provinces compete for this business.

    Per capita disposable income is way up steadily in the last 10 or 15 years.

    "China plus one" strategy. Vietnam, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia. But no country can do what China does.



  • May, 2022
  • May 13,2022
  • Saudi Aramco became biggest company in the world
  • May, 2022
  • May 12,2022
  • Ruble collapsed by 60% last March when they invaded Ukraine, but is now the strongest performer of 2022 (a 2-year high of 64R/1USD)

    Spending of reserves, being an exporter of petrol, having gas buyers buy in Rubles, doubling interest rates and limiting capital flows, and talking about backing the Ruble with gold and other commodities are factors contributing to its rising valuation.

    Russia has energy, so that's not cramping their style like in some oil importing countries (price has been rising over the past year significantly). Russian consumer appears still strong.

    However, the future. The economy (GDP) is guessed it will shrink 10% in an upcoming recession. Financial sanctions take months or years to take effect, they're not immediate.

    The other currencies that have appreciated against the USD this year are the Brazilian Rial and (a lot) and the Mexican Peso (a little bit). All other currencies have depreciated against the USD this year, the most depreciation seen by Egypt's Pound, Argentine's Peso, Japanese Yen, Turkish Lire, and some other Eastern European money.



  • May, 2022
  • May 04,2022
  • Questions about job seeking companies continues

    Job vacancy NUMBERS have like doubled. A huge spike in the graph.

    But people applying for jobs aren't getting even interviews.

    Some say it has to do with companies and PPP loans:

    "I’ve applied for 350 jobs as a graduating senior with a BS in economics and certifications in project management and barely have gotten any interviews. I’ve gotten 5 different scam posts though!

    "This is absolutely BS and is purely being used as justification for bailouts. The government is funding businesses to lie about their job numbers."

    Someone else:

    "IIRC some college professors had to send out upwards of 1000 applications to get interviews.

    "I imagine the problem now is a lot similar to dating websites; where everyone is looking for the best of the best, without realizing that those top candidates or jobs are either half scams or interviewing what they think will be a great person, only to wind up ghosted and the position left open because that top person they turned everyone else down for found something better.

    "Rather than picking good or even GREAT candidates, they just siphon out a ton of people on the assumption that the sheer volume of resumes they have means the cream of the crop will TOTALLY settle for them and not wind up somewhere else by the time they've sorted all the resumes and sent out responses to those top candidates."
     
  • May, 2022
  • May 03,2022
  • "We still haven't felt that 'get me out at any price' type of trading, and while we are likely getting closer to a tradeable low, we don't think we are quite there yet... we continue to look for a sub-4k SPX, with colume based support coming in 3900-39050." - Doc on CNBC


  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 29,2022
  • Mortgage refinancing demand dropped 70% from a year ago
  • Some San Diego residents moved to Mexico to save money

    Brokers for this trade usually see investors and retirees buying in Mexico, but now it's young workers too. Some people also work remotely and can live on the waterfront for $200k - $700k (versus in the millions for SD) (or was he saying $200 - 700 per month rent?).

  • Indonesia banned export of palm oil

    ... because of local shortage. Prices for it are up 40%, and people protested.

    Indonesia does 1/3 of global vegetable oil exports. 30m tonnes exported by them. India imports half its vegetable oil from Indonesia, 13m tonnes (60% of that is palm oil, 25% soybean oil, 12% sunflower seed oil). (Malaysia does 32% of India's imports to Indonesia's 55%.) There will now be much more demand than supply. 20% rise in priced expected in India.

    Poorer countries depend more on cheaper cooking oils like palm oil.

     
  • Inflation since 1 year ago in US, by CNBC



     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 28,2022
  • Amazon $4b loss, quarterly report

    Stock down 10%.

    Amazon is particularly susceptible to 2 things that are wide trends: consumer spending and supply chains.

    Costs. 1.3m workers. All those expenses going up.

     
  • US GDP dropped 1.4%, in a surprise, first drop since 2020

    Pricing index up 8%. Highest since 1981.
     
    US importing way more than exporting. Inventory. Some downturns due to interest rates. Lots of distortions in metrics.

  • "If you have a $3m home that drops to $2.5, that person's gonna be OK. It's the person who bought the average $375k house that drops to $180k that can't refinance it, can't resell it, then can't afford a payment, and may lose his job." - I Allegedly (vlogger)

    Different from 2008 because they got rid of the liar loans and you really had to qualify for loans after that, but they're back now. The underwriting was much more difficult after 2008 (have to have income and a real downpayment). Back to unrealistic times right now.
  • "I don't know if we have a student loan problem, because it's only a problem if you have a debt that you can't pay." - I Allegdedly (vlogger)

  • Housing prices were up in March but sales down 8%. Consumer sentiment is lowering.

    The vlogger here, "These numbers, you don't really need to study them to know how bad these are, because lets face it, you see it when you go to the grocery store, when you purchase things, when you buy gas, you know exactly how you're getting mistreated as a far as inflation is concerned. That's happening to all of us right now."
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 26,2022
  • Phoenix, AZ hottest property market for 33 months straight now

     
  • Averaging 1 massive crypto hack per week

    $Hundreds of millions often.

     
  • "The NASDAQ, not for most stocks but for the FANGS, Feb 24, the day Putin invaded. - Josh Brown

    The invasion drove up inflation for a lot of stuff, which put a top in for growth stocks.

     
  • "Apple is important to everything and everyone" - Josh Brown

    Not just the S&P and people who love tech, but also Berkshire. "Berkshire probably technically can't withstand Apple breaking down either."

     
  • Is single family home rentals 'the future'?
  • "We're in the only business in the global macro economy where customers hate bargains." - Rob Arnott on value stocks versus tech growth stocks

    20% up and everyone wants to buy, 20% down and everything avoids it, saying There must be something wrong with it.
     
    Does this mean the market is one of the easiest things to manipulate?
  • Tech stocks are not on discount, they are the bursting of a tech bubble, says Rob Arnott

    Like 2000.
     
  • "Roughly 1/3 of inflation is sheltered. Home ownership or renting, or hotels and motels" - Rob Arnott

    Hotels and Motels up over 20% last year. Home ownership (which is much bigger) is not counted in CPI as the value of a home) up 32% in the last 2 years. What the BLS does is ask What would the home rent for? They don't know, they just ask the home owners what they think it would rent for.

    We're going to see an illusion that inflation is subsiding in the coming months because those months are replacing big inflation months from 1 year ago, followed by an illusion inflation is breaking out in the summer months because those months will replace low-inflation months.
     
  • About CEOs of big tech companies, "They're successful because they've operated well near-term and they've had great long-term vision. If you've got great long-term vision there's no way you're reacting to a bear market. We're gonna have them every 5 years." - Mark Mahaney

    "Don't let the markets determine what your corporate strategy is. Maybe your financial strategy but not your corporate strategy."

    Maheney called Musk's purchase timing genius, "Step in with a big premium offer when the stock had been dramatically traded off as part of a bear market in tech stocks."
  • Does Twitter becoming private make it more competitive versus FB, Snap, etc?

    Mark Mahaney of Evercore: "I think Musk is doing something that a lot of investors should do which is that there's a lot of really good tech assets out there that are at very low prices. Yes, Elon Musk offered a 50% premium but it was on a stock that was off 50% since it's highs."

     
  • Mexico nationalized lithium

    "Elon Musk's worst nightmare."

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 25,2022
  • India will be selling wheat to Egypt, it looks like

    ... instead of Russia and Ukraine, which formerly accounted for 80% of Egypt's wheat imports. They have a shortage, and have been importing from France, Romania, USA, and others. Prices have risen from $380 to $500 per ton.

    Egypt is the largest or second largest importer (12 of its 21m tonnes per year consumption) of wheat. India is one of the largest producers, and while it hasn't been big in exporting it, it seems India is willing to do so, although it seems unlikely India would be willing to produce and export THAT much. Right now India produces 110m tonnes and consumes 105m.

    They're meeting this week in Dubai. One thing they're doing (some Egyptian experts) is some tests to see what the quality of Indian wheat is, and how adequate it is for the Egyptian market. They found it is good enough, but commercial discussions which will come later will decide how much and at what price.

    Wheat is a strategic commodity, and every country has its own standards for wheat. Because it is strategic, Egypt is really considering whether to add India to its list of strategic importers of the food.

    Because Egypt is an important of wheat, so it can affect international prices of wheat. Not only a price taker but a price setter. That gives them the ability to have communications with several countries that export wheat, and to have some input on that trade of wheat on an international level. Exporters must respond differently when a big importer such as Egypt enters the market, compared with a smaller importer. (Big exporters also are price setters.)

      
  • CAR unanimously adopted Bitcoin as legal tender

    The first African country to do so.


  • 7 years growing. Despite pandemic, recession, whatever.

    Over $2t in 2021 for the first time.

    The biggest arms companies are all in the US except one in the UK.

     

  • "The easiest of the hard things is crude oil." - Dan Yergin

    Because you can get it from other places. The hardest thing is natural gas.


  • Asia markets continue down

    Lockdowns and lockdown fears. More cases in Shanghai lockdown, now in it's fourth week. Beijing might be next. 


  • "When the dollar is stronger, things break in other parts of the world." - Alicia Levine

    "I think we need to start thinking about what happens to the real economy as a result of the Fed actions and marching forward quickly, and what happens to financial assets. ... and I think it's quite plausible that things could break in the financial asset market globally. Think about what has happened to the Yen, the Yuan, the Euro and the Pound in the last 3 months. A very strong dollar does not bode well for the rest of the world. For multinationals and earnings.

    "I think we're seeing the beginning of the dislocation from the Fed's policy."

    (She doesn't see a recession in the US in the next year, but said that doesn't mean the economy's going to take it all that well.)
  • "If you look at the last two years, we had extraordinary rebound off the lows. You go back even further, 3 years, 5, 10. You go all the way back 13 years to the global financial crisis, and the challenge is that all of that is really a sugar high. All of those gains are really devaluation of the currency." - Mark Yusko

    He said that gold is money (the only thing that is). When you denominate in gold, we're flat since 1996. It's really currency devaluation. Excess liquidity by banks.
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 21,2022
  • NFLX down like 40% in a day after reporting losing 200k customers

    It expects to lose 2m this year. It has like 220m though.

    Reasons: saturation in US (has like 90% of that market), competition with other streaming services (like Disney which is what anyone with kids maybe pays for). Cutting off Russia cost around 700m subscribers. Musk said wokeness was making shows unwatchable.

    Netflix is considering running ads (doesn't now) and not allowing password sharing.

     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 20,2022

  • Expectation to keep a level of diversity. At the start of last year they had a dozen black partners among their 400 partners globally, and 5 have left in the last year.

    Questions about the pipeline (black execs to chose from).

    A lot of these black execs who are leaving, they were hired in 2019 or 2020. That's leaving significantly faster than the average tenure of a Goldman partner.
     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 18,2022
  • $828b in US taxes to be paid by Americans, plus $125b in crypto taxes, approximated - Tom Lee and Fundstrat

    Fundstrat looked into years where markets were strong, and the weeks before filing (April 18 this year, not October) markets were weak.

    A lot of assets are bad financial hedges, Lee said. Americans own $55t worth of bonds. There might be a panic out of bonds. Lee thinks into income generating real assets and TINA. So people will sell bonds to buy real assets but not a lot of stocks.

    His base case is still that inflation cools.
     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 16,2022
  • Bretton Woods 3 - New world monetary order

    Being talked about by some as having started when Russia invaded Ukraine, and the US (and West) blocked Russia's access to it's money with economic sanctions. Written about for everyone by Zoltan Pozsar, strategist at Credit Suisse.

    The first Bretton Woods (the only formal actual agreement) was in 1944 (700 delegates from 44 allied nations met in New Hampshire for 3 weeks in July, establishing the IMF and a part of what would later be the World Bank). The British Pound was decreasing in value. The US dollar became the world standard. It was pegged to gold. It became the most common reserve currency (when a country exports more than it imports, it will end up holding foreign currency, so it has to decide which foreign currency to hold. Most picked US dollar). The second (informal but considered to be) "Bretton Woods" happened when in 1971 (but Bretton Woods I was considered OVER by 1973) Nixon decided the US was going off US-gold convertibility (after the US decoupled many fixed currencies followed, and currencies were allowed to float relative to each other - fiat currency. Price stability was the job of the central bank, controlling inflation, keeping it low, stable and predictable. (US buying a lot of Chinese goods and China holding US reserve currency was a hallmark of BW2. This Chinese holding of USD peaked in 2014 but is still up there). Dollar hegemony.

    "Bretton Woods 3:" The West imposed severe sanctions on Russia this year, and Russia therefore had access to only $300b of its $600b of foreign reserves. The result is that central banks of every country are now concerned their foreign reserves can be confiscated this way if their actions fall foul of US policy.

    Zoltan Pozsar says the core of our portfolios (and also the monetary system) will be in commodities in the future, and that central banks might have to bail out commodity traders (which seems to people an odd thing to say).

    Zoltan drew an analogy between subprime assets 2008 which triggered the global financial crisis AND Russian commodities, which he considers to be sub prime. Prime assets are non-Russian commodities, which are kind of like treasuries in 2008, the safe haven assets everyone wanted to protect them from the equity storm. Urals (Russian) crude oil currently trades $30 (huge difference) below the price of Brent (delivered in the North Sea).

    China, says Zoltan, will play a large role in bringing those subprime commodities (Russian ones) and prime commodities (non-Russian ones). Because China has lots of reserves and it also has not imposed sanctions on Russia.

    Zoltan sees a multi-polar world emerging, where we're no longer dominated by US dollar trading. We'll use Renminbi when trading with China, Rubles when trading with Russia. Ie weaker dollar and stronger Renminbi. If China wants to do this (bring R subprime and non-R prime commodities back into line, it can: sell treasuries, which would push up the yield in the US and with that money buy Russian commodities. Use some of that money to lease US vessels (raising shipping costs and thereby inflation in the West) and use ships to store commodities if it runs out of storage space in China. Another way China could do this thing is if the Chinese government prints renminbi and use that to buy commodities from Russia. This would also push up US yields (and therefore inflation because its still a supply squeeze) because they wouldn't have to store any dollars in US treasuries, because a big buyer of US treasuries would suddenly disappear.

    If this happened, there would be not just the US dollar "eurodollar" (nothing to do with Euros) market but also a renminbi market. End of US dollar hegemony.

    Either of these two options China has, Zoltan says, will cause higher inflation in the West, higher yet US treasury yields, and higher shipping costs (also inflationary). Another result is commoditiy volatility, rising up fast, crashing down (remember the London nickel exchange crash day written about on this blog?) Commodity traders could fail and become bankrupt. Central clearing counterparties could also fail, leading to government bailouts.

    And, as Larry Fink has talked about, the end of globalization because of resource nationalism (as a defensive measure), stockpiling of commodities, and rethinking (localizing and multiplying) supply chains.





     
     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 13,2022
  • Supply chains

    Things seem a bit worse now with China.

    We don't know when supply chains are coming back.
  • Food insecurity

    We don't yet know who will make up the 20 or 30% global wheat production which Ukraine usually does.
  • Comparative economics in 2022, amid Ukraine war, pandemic restrictions, global supply chain issues, etc.

    If you're an energy producer or food producer (commodities), you're doing well. If you're an importer you're suffering.

    Turkey has to import energy. (It also regularly receives 4m Russian tourists every year.) Egypt has to import food.

    US politicians about other countries 'making a decision about where they are in this crisis.' China: Washington is poised to take a hard position towards China depending on the decisions they make. India. US wants both to oppose Russia.
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 12,2022
  • Over the past half century, gas stations have gone from gas only, to gas plus service (checking fluids), to self-serve, to 'smokes and cokes,' to having their own snack items (which actually have brand loyalty, unlike gas stations), to being like grocery stores

    The younger generation is also reportedly more brand loyal to shops like these.
     
    Gas sale itself is not very profitable (7% markup). Food makes up like 70% of profits now, reportedly.
  • Sri Lanka govt increased pharmaceutical prices 30% earlier this year when inflation came to that country

    Pharmaceuticals running low, reportedly. No access to imported drugs, reportedly. Several hospitals are not performing surgeries.

    "If supplies are not restored within days, the casualties will be far worse than from the pandemic" - SLMA

    16k people have died of Covid in the country in the past couple years, according to reports.

     
  • Economists revising expectations for Chinese growth rate

    Was at 5%. But now (strict lockdowns) aggregate demand will be lower from less economic activity. Expectations now about 4%.

    Questions about supply chain issues stemming from Chinese manufacture, and the effect on global inflation rates, which is already affecting interest rates in US.

    It's already brought oil prices lower.

  • Nepal banned import of luxury items

    A first step to combat the possibility of a liquidity crisis like in Sri Lanka right now.

    It has reserves for about 7 months.

    Prices up for regular goods.

    Tourism is a significant part of their economy.

     
  • Sri Lanka announces default on all its external debt

    $51bn.

    They ran out of foreign exchange to buy food, fuel, etc.

    The government there said foreign governments et al were free to recapitalize any interest payments, or to accept rupees.

    SR needed $7b to service its debt this year but only had $2b in reserves.

    New Delhi has sent thousands of tons to Colombo as part of a multi-pronged support plan.

    Protests there for leader to step down.

     
  • Supply for vehicles expected to return in 2023, according to Toyota CEO

    Supply chain issues the number one reason there won't be enough cars for demand until then.

    25% of sales are electrified cars (hybrid or full). That technology has improved to where it offers the performance consumers want, plus gas prices are rising.

    Toyota does 65% of US full hybrid sales. Honda, for and Hyundai follow with about 10% each.
     
  • Small business in US, inflation

    31% say inflation is the most important issue, replacing 'labor quality' as the #1. (Taxes is #3.)

    Inflation is leading to pessimism, some say. Owners expect business to be better over next 6 months: only 49% of them (50-year record low).
  • Inflation 8.5% YoY in US, highest since 1981

    For the Consumer Price Index

    (However, some say in core inflation, US came in below estimates, which means some of inflation could be decelerating [not gas or food, which is highly effected by Ukraine].)

    There were record increases in wages published recently, but adjusted for inflation we see it hasn't kept up, being down 2 or 3 percent when inflation is factored in.
    There's also a question that big companies are accepting a degree of profit margin pressure, taking the loss and not passing it on to the consumer.

    The market went up the morning this was put out though. Analysts thinking there might have been an even higher whisper number.

    Republicans say part of the issue might be benefits programs ('lavish' unemployment benefits, health care, and a child tax credit no longer tied to work), which might have exacerbated the worker shortage. No incentive / "almost a denial" for workers to drive workers back to work (stimulus). Also that the president talking about higher tax rates all the time inhibits business investment. Places like Brazil lowering their tax rates to combat inflation.
     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 11,2022

  • "Because they see how the tourism industry is going, young people do not want to enter it." Entertainment same. Doing theater was "illegal," and people in the business faced bankruptcy.

    Delivery services are doing well for the past 2 years. Online shopping innovations.

    Gardening is up, even in cities.
     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 09,2022
  • US will emerge as world's largest LNG producer this year, said Dan Yergin

    How much gas that was going to go to Asia is now going to go to Europe (for strategic considerations) (depends if Asia has a severe or mild winter)?

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 07,2022
  • Indonesian coal

    Has seen prices rise from $100 per ton in April 2021 to around $300 (it was $400 a bit ago). It started a while ago, before the Ukraine war, but has been effected by Europe's new energy issues.

    The government of Indonesia requires coal producers to sell 25% in Indonisia at prices it decides ("domestic market obligation"), and the companies are making a good profit off the rest on the open market.

     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 06,2022
  • Mortgage rates in US dropped 40% YoY amid rising rates (highest rates since 80s I think)
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 31,2022

  • Is crypto democratized or democratizing, really?

    Vice actually did something people said was OK again with this video.

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 22,2022

  • "This week they're incredibly hawkish. A few weeks ago they were incredibly dovish."

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 20,2022
  • "Perversely, what is supposed to be the cleanest energy policy will turn out to be the dirtiest" - Samo Burja

    He said he thinks that because for the past 20 years (more?) the German government has been telling the populace nuclear energy is like the worst thing, dangerous, it would be very difficult to now say to them that they're going to start building new plants, "I think you're just going to keep burning coal, because you will be forced to disentangle from Russia eventually."


  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 19,2022
  • LME halted trading in nickel, but also cancels all the days trades

    The London Metal Exchange said it was what was best for the market, the exchange didn't keep to its neutral position, but "picked winners and losers." Cancelling orders (after the event - the held a meeting and decided to let trading continue, but then after the day they decided to cancel all that had happened) is basically unheard of. 500 nickel trades had been executed that day, worth almost $4b.

    Nickel was up like 240%, a huge short squeeze.

    When LME cancelled the trades that had already taken place, it wiped out an estimated $1.3b in profits and losses.

    It has been said that the entity who would have benefited most from the trades being cancelled is Tsingshan Holding Group, the world's largest stainless steel producer, who was estimated to have lost $8b on their short position. Tsingshan's biggest lender and broker is China Construction Bank.

    It was pointed out (most vigorously perhaps by those who lost on the cancelled trades) that the LME is owned by the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing.

    The LME CEO said the owner of the LME had nothing to do with it.

    This story is much more complicated, with the various companies involved, as well as the China being state controlled having some effects, and the Russian 'blood diamond' nickel issue: Cancelled Nickel Trades on the LME - YouTube

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 14,2022
  • "The Germans have been enabling Russia more than anyone else in behavior against our interests" - Samo Burja

    He said they just have to do something else, whether its nuclear plants or de-industrializing.

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 13,2022
  • Europe likely headed for recession, US not, according to Mark Mobius

    US is going to be producing a lot of military equipment, and that will help its economy, he said.

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 09,2022
  • MacDonalds and Starbucks stopped or are going to stop business in Russia

    Amongst lots of others, apparently.

    Samo Burja said about this, "Countries around the world will no longer see Western companies such as MacDonalds or Starbucks or Facebook or Twitter as neutral services. They'll consider it a strategic priority to develop their own."

    He said India has for a while wanted to emulate China, and said it would be almost insane or treasonous for Indian leaders to not to start to block social media websites and develop their own.

    If it is impossible to pursue an independent strategy, Burja said, and it has to play with the Western strategy, and has to trust in our multilateralism, our fairness, our justice, I think that's kind of a joke. "I think they have no good reason to find the West trustworthy."
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 06,2022
  • Ivermectin ("horse drug") more effective than Remdesevir, according to two new studies

    Denegrated and warned against by MSM, the Nobel prize-winning, WHO essential drugs-listed Ivermectin has been shown to be much more effective than Remdesevir in treating Covid. Less hospitalizations, less deaths.

    Ivermectin costs a couple cents. Remdesevir costs like $300 per cycle.

    The Miami study found you were 70% less likely to die if you took Ivermectin versus if you took Remdesevir.

    The Brazil study found Ivermectin-only group had 70% less mortality than Remdesevir. The Ivermectin group was taking just a tiny amount of Ivermectin every 2 weeks as a prophylactics (prophelaxis?).

    There was also a large (about 44%) reduction in infection (data from Brazil study).

    This is not really being reported in MSM.



    Top YouTube comment on this video:


     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 03,2022
  • How much has the US given the Ukraine for military over the past 5 or 10 years?

    I heard someone say a billion.
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 01,2022
  • Massive economic incentive to expand NATO after end of Soviet Union

    All those former Soviet countries were outfitted wit Russian weapons. They had to be refitted with Western weapons (NATO all use the same weapons or something).

    To create new markets for the big military equipment companies that wouldn't be buying as many tanks and warplanes etc since Cold War was over (ultimately US didn't buy less because War on Terror started in 2001).

    - point raised by Ali Abunimah

     
  • Russians were at the ATMs trying to withdraw cash as fears of economic trouble in the country grows
  • "One sanction that Putin fears, and that is ending the purchase of natural gas from Gazprom." - Yanis Varoufakis

    "... As we speak, Nordstream 1, the gas pipeline, is feeding the German industrial machine with 40% of its energy from Russian gas. They're not going to say anything about that, because this is a sanction they're not prepared to make."

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 28,2022
  • Ukraine has put up cypto wallets for people to donate

    ... saying the money would be used to destroy as many Russian soldiers as possible, it was reported.

    They've received several million into these wallets.

  • Idea of Russia using crypto in the face of sanctions not so easy, reportedly

    ... because crypto trading isn't that high. There just isn't availability for the amounts he needs, people are saying.

    Also, some endpoints are controlled.

  • Expectation is inflation will be worse in Europe than US

    US is a net- energy exporter (since 2019).

  • At minimum, expected 3-5% reduction in Russian economy due to sanctions

  • Russian stock market fell 40% before being put on hold

    It's Monday.

    US market also down. Europe market significantly down. Oil up. NatGas down. Gold up. Crypto significantly up.

     
  • Removal of Russia from Swift

    But more important, commenters say, are the restrictions US and allies are placing on the R central bank.

    R has $600b in foreign reserves. The restrictions aim at preventing Putin from using that money to fund the invasion and to keep the R central bank from offsetting the falling Ruble.

    Putin has built up that big foreign reserve pile (3rd largest in the world) over several years, some say in an attempt to "sanction-proof" his economy. He's cut his debt ratio to GDP.

    There's talks that Switzerland will even join the sanctions.

    The Swift and R central bank sanctions may have isolated the R economy and put it into a sort of freefall. The R people will likely feel this, as will the R oligarchs.

    They have not yet done trade sanctions (ie go after oil and gas), because Europe gets over 40% of its gas from Russia. Such sanctions would cost everyone around the world.

     
  • "For the first time ever, the EU will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment to a country that is under attack." - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen

    Germany is transferring a bunch of weapons. So is Sweden, the first time its broken its historically neutral stance in 80 years. Other countries also.

    Challenge in delivery as Ukraine's airports were early Russian targets.

     
  • US at 12m barrels of oil per day, 25% more than Saudis

    300% increase in rig counts since crash in ENP expenditures, because of the Covid recession.

    Will be up to 13m per day by end of year.

    US price per KWH is $15. The next cheapest is France at $25. Germany is $45.

    One reason for not producing more (esp in Europe?) is this raises the price, so the population becomes more ready to do things to adopt renewable energy instead.

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 18,2022
  • Some people say China is winning over US in LatAm

    The countries are simply taking the best deal offered them, even if it's something like Huawei, which the US tried to get Brazil not to deal with because of Huawei's alleged spying. China is reacting to the local need, some say

    China's BioTech vaccine was the first vaccine available to Brazil. Some say LatAm countries are not happy with the way Washington handled the pandemic.


    #China #Brazil #LatAm #InternationalRelations #Diplomacy
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 15,2022
  • 'We're in an era of post-US shale hypergrowth. US shale is no longer growing more than global demand, and so there's a call on global super majors, but they can't pick up." - Eric Nuttall

    Countries (like Nigeria, Angola) are underproducing, forsaking 100's of million of dollars per month. Because they have had the inability to invest new productive capacity. So there are very few members of OPEC that can actually meaningfully grow oil production. Many, including maybe Russia, are near their productive capacity.

    We might see OPEC fair capacity exhaustion by the end of this year, which would be very bullish for the oil price, said Nuttall. But only energy producers and investors want higher prices. Therefore, even if Russia were to actually invade Ukraine, it is thought there wouldn't really be sanctions. Politically, democratic leaders maybe can't allow the oil price to go up much further. This might mean relaxing on Iran (the last suppressed producer which could easily come on line), also.

    What allows oil producing companies to return the most free cash flow back to investors is long-life reserves, low corporate declines, and strong balance sheets. Canada has the best of all 3 of any jurisdiction in the world, but has among the lowest stock prices, according to Nuttall.

    If there is $100 oil, they can privatize themselves, they can buy back every single share that is standing in just 2.6 years, while they are sitting on 15 years of inventory.

    He said we're not 'high' in inventory, we're 'normal,' we're back to like the period 2010-2014 (in that 4-year time period, oil averaged over $100 and yet demand continued growing). We're not at the point where high price leads to demand discretion yet, he said, and won't until we see $130 or $140 oil, if like academic history it happens when oil hits 5-6% of global GDP. Nowadays, exhausting capacity plus end of US shale hypergrowth, the fundamental setup is more bullish than 2010-2014.

    Because investors want returns (not growth of production), oil companies will continue to pay down debt, do dividends and increase dividends, moderate growth, moderate corporate decline (a company doesn't have to spend as much to keep their production up), rather than start new projects (multi-billion cost and then 4-6 years to come on line and then another 4 years to reach project payout). That means meaningfully higher oil prices.

    He thinks demand will continue to grow for 10-15 years.

    The perception of 'bad, dirty' oil has over the past years taken investors out, but now they're being 'dragged back in.'

     
  • Crude prices fell almost 3% as Russia pulls back some military forces from their close proximity to Ukraine

    There have been a lot of headlines over the past week or two about a possible invasion.

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 11,2022
  • "Monetary policy itself will likely put us into recession, because we don't have normal economic cycles anymore. We have credit cycles that ebb and flow with the cost of capital, and now that the cost of capital is going up, even though historically speaking it's still very low on an absolute basis, the rate of change is already changing mentality." - Peter Boockvar

    "Since the 70s we have not seen such a low intention to buy a car."

    "The IPO market is beginning to tighten up, and companies have to start looking for private financing instead of the public market."

    "For the Fed to look at the curve and say 'Okay maybe we should not raise rates,' it's somewhat circular because it's the market's belief of their rate hike in the short end that is resulting in this flattening."

    "Now with respect to QE and how that influences the curve, it's tricky also because in theory you'd say 'Okay if the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, if they're going to shrink their balance sheet, long rates would rise, but as we saw after QE1 and QE2 the exact opposite happened. When QE turned on rates actually went up. When it turned off rates went down. So it's an impossible situation that they've put themselves in, and the question now is At what level of pain are they willing to tolerate, both in terms of economic activity and where the markets go before they get spooked? But because of the elevated level of inflation, even though it will slow on a rate of change basis, it's still going to leave them very little flexibility to react to try to pull back."

    "In a sentiment perspective, if inflation is driving interest rates hgher, and interest rates going higher is driving the stockmarket lower ... perhaps. Then that sentiment is going to, it's kind of like a circular kind of effect, where those people (earning $100k or more, who make up a large part of the 'consumer sentiment being lower' right now a the U of Michigan study) are driving a lot of the sentiment lower." - Dom Chu

  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 09,2022
  • "The Fed is signalling a tighter monetary policy, the economy is very strong, unemployment's low, earnings for many companies are at records, state tax receipts are rising way above expectations, credit card usage is high, stimulus is tremendous." - Bill Miller
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 01,2022
  • Buffet may have sold his airline stocks when the pandemic started not out of panic, but in order to save American jobs

    ... because if the world's richest man owned a huge stake, the government would have looked bad giving these companies bailouts.

    This point was raised by Josh Brown.
     
    Anyway, Berkshire is doing very well this year, and most of Buffets holdings (utilities, energy, banks, etc) are doing well.
  • Shift to a buyers market more now

    After the past couple years where every startup could ask billions of dollars
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 28,2022
  • Covid-19 vaccines and treatments: we must have raw data, now

    The authors of this paper, published in BMJ, say people don't have access to real, good (raw) data on the vaccines.

    In the paper, they write, "The anonymized participant level of data underlying the trials for these new products remain inaccessible to doctors, researchers, and the public" despite the global rollout.

    The authors asserted that, "This is morally indefensible for all trials, but especially for those involving major public health interventions."

    "The company and the contract research organization that carried out the trial hold all the data."

    Pfizer indicated it wouldn't even begin to entertain requests for trial data until 2025.

    It has been pointed out that a similar thing happened in 2009 - 2012 there was a large vaccination campaign for H1N1, and governments were stockpiling Tamiflu,how much did tamiflu make (UK spent 473m pounds on it. Anyone know how much it's made worldwide?) and there was a black market for the product. Major trials for it were sponsored by the manufacturer, and papers were ghostwritten and paid for by the manufacturers. Academics who requested access to the papers were denied.


     
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 25,2022
  • IMF is urging El Salvador to not use Bitcoin as legal tender
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 21,2022
  • Market sell off has been a few days now

    Shortage of buyers.

    Big tech stocks seem to analysts like they're trying to go back down to pre-pandemic levels. Amazon was down over 5% today. Netflix, a $250b company, was down 22%.

    Questions about margin calls.

    Everything was red, though. Growth and value. Tech, energy, and reopening trades.

    People are talking about 'what price to buy stocks at.' They had been saying over the past year that multiple and actual value seem to not matter, and that there was so much retail investment, and no one cared about looking at actual business value, it was possible to say you should buy stocks without considering value.

    Buffet is now up. Berkshire over the past months has been one of the best stocks. Kathy Wood's Ark is down.
    The market was up 25% in the past year.

    Monetary and fiscal and economic uncertainty, which is expected to get worse in the upcoming months.
     

  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 18,2022
  • Berkshire one of the best stocks this year

    After taking some flack during the bounceback in 2019 for not being on board with new stocks.

    Kathy Wood's Ark Invest is down.

    It has "everything you could want in this environment." Cash to take advantage of opportunities, real estate exposure, industrial, railroad (which is charging record rates), financial exposure, energy, utilities.

    Buffet was like the last man standing after the dot com bubble too. He was ridiculed in the 90s for not understanding the appeal of the tech thing.

     
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 16,2022
  • Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna will make pre-tax profits of $34 billion this year from vaccines

    $93.5 million a day.

    Moderna delivered 0.2% of their total vaccine supply to low-income countries. Pfizer/BioNTech delivered less than 1%, according to People's Vaccine Alliance.


  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 02,2022
  • 2022, the world's largest trade is in arms, followed by the drug trade, still

    $500b yearly, controlled by criminal networks.

    Opium in Asia.Central Asia, Golden Triangle, Golden Crescent. Cannabis resin in Morocco. Cocaine mainly from Colombia. Biggest consumers are US and Europe. Transport over sea and air.

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 30,2021
  • Bulgarians and Greeks are buying a lot of goods in Turkey for the low prices.

  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 17,2021
  • "US is one of the few demographic countries with a tailwind" - Tom Lee

    Most other countries are going the other way.

    "Most major companies are founded by people in their 20s or 30s. Costco, Blackstone, Bloomberg. ... So if you have more people age 30, you're gonna have more innovation. ... There's a correlation between people age 30-50 and the number of patents filed."

    "If we were just relying on demographics that would mean that we have a bull market through 2029."

    China, Japan, Europe don't have this demographic optimism.
  • "You don't need capitalism anymore" - Tom Lee

    "... Because now there's so much saver capital you don't need an economy," meaning there's enough capital around already.

    "It's like oil. Imagine if we have the reserves. We don't have to import oil anymore."

    "The US essentially could be a supplier of capital to the rest of the world now. ... The capital that's accumulated now will be used to generate returns anywhere in the world."

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 07,2021
  • Global debt trap?

    Perhaps, as debt in the world is 4x the underlying economy (in about 25 countries debt to GDP exceeds 300%, whereas before it was just Japan). At this level, an increase in interest rates could cause the system to shake, and this might be a reason long-term interest rates have a problem going up, despite the entire consensus calling for this move. According to Ruchir Sharma
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 06,2021
  • Bitcoin tumble

    It went down about 20% in an hour or something, amidst it's few-day drop and small rebound to $42k. It was around $57 before I think.

    The whole market dropped significantly several days last week, on news headlines about a new strain of the virus. Rebound today for most stocks.

    On bitcoin though: 'These cycles will continue to play out for three reasons. The first of which is there's higher volatility in crypto; there aren't circuit-breakers that we have in traditional finance, so nothing that can keep a floor after things start going down really fast; and the market never closes, so there's not really an opportunity for information to be digested once this cascading effect takes hold.' - Frank Chaparro

     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 30,2021
  • Twitter only up 2% since it went public

    Or maybe it's currently below it's opening price in 2013. Social media public companies are up around 200% (Global X social media ETF) (Facebook is up like 600%).

    Does only $3 or 4b a year, and pays it's owners et all pretty well, is the loudest social media voice there is. Politicians and journalists.

    Dorsey stepped down as CEO today. Some commented they expect more censorship on it now.

  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 29,2021
  • $207m loan default makes Uganda lose only international airport to China, possibly

    Chinese debt trap success if true, but Ugandan and Chinese authorities have denied reports.

    The loan, signed in 2015 between the Ugandan govt and China's Exim (export-import) bank, had a 20 year maturity period and 7 year grace period.

    Uganda's largest commercial and military airport. Entebbe airport.

     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 25,2021
  • "Bonds are basically paying for the pandemic response" - Some investor said
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 05,2021
  • Oil and gas companies perhaps not welcom at COP26 summit

    This was raised by Steve Sedgwick at CNBC. He asked the COP president at a press meeting, but the pres, Alok Sharma, avoided answering it.

  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 02,2021
  • Lots of talk of 'tops' and that things we're seeing are indicative

    Read the following couple stories. Investors have been reminded of the dot com bubble when saying your company had a 'website' made it rise.
  • Talking about your company having something to do with EV makes it rise

    Avis up 100% after saying they were going to rent EVs. (No deal or anything with an EV company, just said something about it.) According to Karen Finerman.

    Investors aren't allowed to short these things--the reddit crowd--they've been told not to. So these moves are left to just go up. Reportedly.

     
  • Squid Game crypto

    Went up like 2800% before, most assume, the owners of the scam converted their holdings into other currency.

    Buyers were not able to sell. There was an element of this where they said they were going to make a video game, or something.

    Fun fact: Devs, on the website, had profile photos from ThisPersonDoesNotExist, it's thought.
  • John Deere reached a tentative 6-year deal with United Auto Workers

    Covers 10k workers. Wage increases, signing bonuses, if workers vote approval.

    DE was up like 5% (on a day of many stocks being up).

    Ag economy and food safety tailwinds appear favorable to Deere. Supply chain issue is causing more national production of goods (at higher prices). Corn, wheat prices are way up.

    Although this means higher labor costs, it also means clarity and a fixed employee cost for 6 years. If we do see what most people seem to be talking about now--persistent inflation--what Deere is going to pay may seem not high after all. If Deere can raise prices on tractors, they can actually expand margin. And they might just be first-movers on this one, where in 3 or 4 years other companies might have to pay a lot more.

    Also, currently there is a trend or shift to thinking about more than just profits. Ie about workers.

     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 01,2021
  • "Apple and Google is a giant piggybank for everything else" - Michael Batnick

    "The bubble inside the stock market is funding bubbles elsewhere" - Josh Brown
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 27,2021
  • "The way finance works in 2021 is that things are not valuable based on their cash flow, but on their proximity to Elon Musk"

    - Patrick Boyle

  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 26,2021
  • Early retirement boom

    Might be a secular trend. For decades older workers were not retiring but kept working.

    Now there's millions more retiring than expected.
     
    We don't know what, but it's expected the course for the US has been altered by the Pandemic.
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 25,2021
  • Hertz orders 100k Model 3s

    HTZZ up 10%, TSLA up 12.5% for the day. TSLA's stock is at $1000 now, and the company is worth $1t, I think.

    Worth $4.2b in revenue for Tesla, the largest EV order ever.

    Projections for how many Telsas are going to be produced in 2030 are up in numbers quite a bit.

    Investors didn't see this coming really. Many were shorting TSLA. Tesla passed through periods where no one knew if they'd be able to fund themselves. Tesla traded on hype or something, but it's now starting to trade on fundamentals.

    They only have like 1 or 2% of market share in countries they sell to.

    UPDATE days later. Tesla is up a lot more. Someone asked Musk about if he was selling to Hertz at a discount, and Musk tweeted Tesla had more demand than supply, and wasn't selling to Hertz at a discount, and so the agreement (he stressed nothing had been signed) meant nothing to Tesla's economics. TSLA was down like 4% on a day when basically everything was down.

    "Lead sales are ugly sales," is something you hear people say sometimes. Automakers are selling fleet versions (often base models with maybe a few extras added on) in large numbers at a discount, and it's of course good for auto-makers but not that good.

    However, other things come into play. Hertz would have to invest in infrastructure and it would create a lock-in effect with buying and servicing Teslas.
     
  • Investing mainstream started to realize physical stores are good

    ... Simeon Siegel of BMO was talking to Kelly on CNBC and said they just finished a 6-month study, and all the big retailers who disrupted traditional stores with their e-commerce model are now growing profits through moving to physical stores (in addition to e-commerce. The term is 'omni'). Also realized that the middle man has value. He talked about 'surprises,' such as physical stores allowing you to own the brand and own the customer. It doesn't keep you at a certain threshold like e-commerce does.

  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 24,2021
  • "When did this happen to us? When did housing turn into a commodity? Why is housing being traded on the stock market? How is it that a public good is being used to make such astronomical profits?"

    -Said by a Berlin resident who didn't move out of an apartment building, although they want him to move out (as every other tenant already has) to make room for them to demolish the building and build new apartments. He received threats and had his car set on fire, reportedly.

    Rents have skyrocketed as global investments have poured into Berlin real estate.

    A recent large referendum had 57% vote in favor of (who? the State? the city?) buying out companies who hold more than 3000 units. ("The most successful referendum in Berlin's history")

    There's a line in Article 15 in the German Constitution that says property can be expropriated when it's for the public good. (There are lots of other options to fix the problem besides expropriation, however.)

    It's a pattern that exists in most European cities. Demolishing old buildings and building new ones. Prices rising. Long term residents left with not much choice but to move elsewhere.

    How can we contrast 'a public good being turned into a commodity' with having enough money to satisfy the market and the possibility of lack of such money being treated as sufficient excuse to seize property without consent (which, you could argue, is frequently done by governments during land development)?

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 20,2021
  • Bitcoin ETF

    The first one the SEC let pass. Gensler hinted he's more comfortable with trading on an regulated futures exchanges like NYSE (where the Bitcoin ETF 'Proshares,' BITO, owned by ProFunds Group [$58b under management] is listed) than on Binance and that type of exchange.

    BITO is not based on actual Bitcoin, but rather on futures contracts, and filed under mutual funds rules that provide significant investor protections, according to SEC. The product already exists, and this is just a repackaging, and if something goes wrong the SEC knows how to deal with it and knows how to intervene.

    The futures in BITO are a bet on the price of bitcoin, without having to actually store bitcoin, so there's no risk of theft of coins or loss of passwords. If bitcoin goes down in price, your money goes to pay those who took the other side of the bet.

    The risk is taken by the arbitrageur who holds bitcoins he buys for full price plus a margin of 1/3rd. Ie a bitcoin which costs $60k means $80k for him. They do this because they charge for this service.

    The return for you of buying BITO is less than buying Bitcoin. It will tend to trade about 8% above the price of bitcoin. (Right now this premium is about 15%.) The ETF's management fee is about 1%.

    So why is this product even necessary? Some experts say 'institutional money.' Boomer investors who will never get a crypto wallet even if it's easy to do, but who have money to invest and want to put it in bitcoin. Josh Brown recently said Chicago investment culture is such that they would approve an ETF for anything as long as they thought people would put their money into it, or something like that.

    Bitcoin up steadily over the past months from it's 25k low (or 30 I forget) and is now at $55k (up several percent since BITO dropped).

      
  • Some restaurants using robots because they can't get workers

    In the US, 75 or 80% percent of restaurants are understaffed.

    Robo-chefs.

    Flippy-2 robot makes deep fried wings. The restaurants are looking at unlocking capacity: faster food for guests. Doing less desirable, more dangerous tasks. Costs now about $3000 per month (I don't know what that means exactly).

    Matri-D by Richtech delivers plates of food to tables. It's basically a robotic food tray. Costs up to $20k. Can serve more tables, customers get food faster, no tips.

    An Australian delivery robot delivers food from a mall to houses within a half a mile.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 17,2021
  • 6% increase in social security benefits

    Highest increase in 40 years.

    Based on cost of living adjustment (COLA), based on actual government-reported inflation numbers. Retirees need the increase. The average check is going up about $100. Most people receive about $1200 a month on this.

    Ie, inflation. A 2% increase is considered to be high.

    6% is a non-sustainable number.

     
  • Several sectors in US seeing worker strikes

    Entertainment, health care, UAW.

  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 11,2021
  • Used fast fashion, low quality, doesn't find a market when it arrives in Africa

    15m items of used clothing arrive in just Ghana every week, sent from the first world. Lots of people go through this clothing to sell it in used clothing stores. More and more of what arrives is 'fast fashion,' which is low quality and doesn't last long.

    There are fields of garbage that include a lot of this clothing (estimated 40% of used clothing that arrives in Ghana goes there).

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 08,2021
  • "The global financial system needs legally stable tax-neutral jurisdictions in order to facilitate international business transactions, which in no way dodge any taxes." - Patrick Boyle, talking about offshore tax havens like BVI and Caymans, in light of the Pandora Papers.

    Governments like the US gov also use them, for investment like in the TARP program, which helped bring liquidity to the markets after the Global Financial Crisis.
  • India's coal

    Coal is 70% of India's energy mix (most mined domestically).

    India keeps adding lower and middle class energy consumers, who are buying goods like fans, lights, and TVs.

    Mines were flooded recently by monsoon rains.

    There is only a few days of coal stores. But it doesn't look like there will be a power outage.

    It's more a fear for businesses than homes.

    India has some solar, but solar outputs are reportedly declining.

     
  • Energy crisis in Europe?

    Some (especially Northwestern like Austria and Germany) nations keep low stocks of natgas, buying is on spot. These will drive the price up.

    This is based on capacity and ability to stock up over the past summer.

    Exposure to spot market rates.

    Asia is winning bidding wars with Europe for cargos.

    There is a question whether Russia really can deliver as much as it says it will. Russia is also looking to fill up its own storage.

    Spain suggested to the EU a shared reserve of energy for emergencies.

     
  • At some point, Chinese crackdown on companies will be more or less finished, and from that point there will be a more stable operating environment for a lot of companies.

    The next catalyst for Chinese stocks.

    CCP wants to see 'no further monopolistic behavior.'

     
  • Fantasia, a second big Chinese real estate firm, missed a big key payment
  • China power crunch

    As China came out of the pandemic, the economy recovered fast, which led to energy demand, which led to really rapid production of coal, which led to some mining examples. As a result, the gov put some safetly regulations on, which constrained coal mining production this year. Prices went up.

    Over the summer, local officials were really conscious of these issues and tried to coordinate with power companies to make sure power supply and demand would be balanced. But in September, demand was higher than expected.

    Also, wind and hydro were lower than expected in some areas.

    In some areas also, local officals were not meeting their energy intensity targets.

    This led to the CCP unilaterally deciding to cut power supply to certain sectors of the economy.

    At the heart of it is really 'local officials' decisions,' it was said.

    (Coal has been the best performing commodity this year price wise.)

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 06,2021
  • Putin assured EU he has all the natgas they want

    Europeans pay 5x what Americans pay for natgas.

  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 05,2021
  • Stagflation?

    CEOs are planning for supply chain disruptions in 2022 also, which means they are starting to worry about maintaining output levels even though demand is there (ie profits lost not just deferred).
  • People now seeing inflation as not going down. US, UK, Germany.
  • "Companies feel more confident to increase prices because prices are going up everywhere."

    Mohamed El-Erian, on inflation being seen now as not so transitory.
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 30,2021
  • Threat of attack on international money transfers cited by investor

    I forget who it was.
  • China banned crypto, nomatter where trading takes place

    US regulators are also looking at doing something. Notably DeFi (Gensler).

    China is experiencing energy shortages (Goldman downgraded China's growth forecast for this), and it might last months.

    Still, any Chinese with a wallet could trade on permissionless decentralized exchanges where there is no KYC.

    There are also VPNs and many Chinese live and work overseas where it could be impossible to prevent their trading crypto.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 28,2021
  • US home sales have turned negative

    Tight supply pushed prices up. Sales of homes under $250k fell compared with a year ago, although those over $1m rose 40%.

    First time buyers are having a hard time with higher prices. Home prices are up 20% over the past year. Median price is $356k (I think). First time home buyers are half the percentage of the market they used to be. Sticker shock?

    Fed is doing this, according to Josh Brown, with 'mindless asset purchases,' like mortgage bonds of $40b a month, harming the first time buyer.

    If rates rise further, which is speculated, it might slow home buying even more. Some experts think this will affect second house buys and more expensive house buys, rather than first home buys, because Americans still seem to like the idea of owning a home and putting their money into this investment, whereas people who already have a house will be less likely to buy a different one.
  • About 100 OnlyFans accounts made over $1m each, reportedly

    What is missing in the societies where the clients come from?

    Users pay $5 for a monthly subscription to any given account, and pay tips up to I think $100, in order to sort of be friends with an attractive person. Accounts make content and personalized content.

    The UK company is worth about $10b, it's estimated.

     
  • Jack Ma's companies lost like $800b in a year, reportedly


     
  • US economy start of October

    Wages going higher, lots of jobs offered (11m openings), savings still high, retail sales very strong, resurgence (V-shaped) in manufacturing which is barely below pre-pandemic.

    General mills expects 7-8% inflation for fiscal 2022.

    Investor confidence high. Yield curve steepening.
    Preparing for tapering and rate increases.

    Labor and supply chain issues have both worsened. No one knows when supply chain issues will be fixed. But they will eventually (after 2022?) be fixed, although wages are 70% of company costs, so it might be different there. Wages and rent.

    The economy is very strong. Profits are high and growing. Profits get recycled into capital expenditure and hiring. The Fed is still acomodative.
    It's considered likely the US will get infrastructure.

    Manufacturers (like Ford) saying US needs to start making chips and minerals like cobalt locally. A local supply chain that's circular.

    Consumer confidence is lowest since Feb.

    Real yields are rising, which is typically a sign of real growth.
     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 24,2021
  • China told local governments to prepare for fallout from Evergrande

    They're tasked with things like preparing to take over and continue building projects, monitoring civilian protests, and paying migrant worker salaries who are working on Evergrande projects.
  • Way more $ going to investing into startups recently

    Usually in a recession businesses are shut down, and don't open.

    Startups have tons of money now, hundreds of millions or billions, and this can be contrasted to startups in previous decades which had a million or a few million. Well capitalized, competing warchests of cash.
     
    Thousands of companies, in competition with each other, who are in no rush to turn profitable. They can try 5 or 6 things before they need to have a success.
  • Retail sales, which are 30% of GDP, down

    Economic optimism in a recent survey went down 14% in a month (considered significant for a month over month).

    Retail sales in July were 17% above Feb 2020. Growing 3x their normal rate, because govt spending all this money, and now that is over.

    The consumer is 70% of GDP.

     
  • Fed whispered the word 'taper' this week.

    Investing talkers seem to be wanting a taper already. Just throwing money at people.
  • Bonds are being sold just on stability

    No longer stability and growth. No longer a source of income.

    People are kind of scared.

    - Jenny Harrington
     
  • "The next recession will be caused by the stock market"

    "That happened in 2000. There was nothing else. It was the stock market."

    "The economy is no longer big enough to offset whatever the Fed is doing and whatever the stock market is doing."

    - Josh Brown on The Compound, Sept 24 2021

  • Rayban changes leading design into 'waycreepers'?

    It's been reported Rayban has licensed or partnered or something with fb to put camera's in their most iconic line.

    So now are we going to be looking for this design to spot people creeping on public locations?

    The last time a large glasses-camera attempt was made was a few years ago. It was Google Glass. What ended it was when a wearer (you might imagine that people interested in buying these products correlate somewhat with people who don't respect the public privacy of others) was punched for wearing them somewhere. Whether for the pr or whatever that might follow this, the project was turned down or off. Will we see the same thing here, to end the current movement towards spying on all public life?

  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 20,2021
  • Evergrande crisis causes global markets to drop a bit

    China's second largest property developer (and world's most indebted one, with $300b in liabilities after years of borrowing for funding of rapid growth amid recent real estate frenzy). Seems the company is insolvent. But some analysits say it might be 'too big to fail' because a failure would undermine the CCP's stability.

    Evergrande's been trying to sell properties for 25% off to deleverage. So much property on the market to sell off quickly is maybe not great for the Chinese property market. There are other companies in the same position as Evergrande as well.

    CCP signaling there won't be a bailout, but as mentioned above this might not be possible because the company accounts for something like 2-3% of China's GDP. Because the majority of financial institutions involved are state-owned, China might use these to do a bailout without appearing to do so directly. However, the CCP seems to want to change the problem they have in their housing market: for years, people have bought homes as investments, and just left them empty, not even renting them out, to keep their quality for some future resell at at a profit, because values have gone up so much in recent years and were expected to continue. This means that the economy gets no real value from the production of these homes. So the CCP wants to move away from unproductive growth to real growth. You might see here why the CCP might be willing to let Evergrande fail so that the traditional moral hazard in the market is reduced. However, real growth alone wouldn't be enough to generate the economic activity for China to hit its GDP growth targets. The way China hits its targets is malinvestment by the real estate sector and local governments building unnecessary infrastructure. The government does more malinvestment when the economy slows down and reduces it at other times. It fills the gap.

    (Malinvestment refers to ... from the 90s until mid-2000s, Chinese debt funded necessary and productive investment, which means the return on these investments grew faster than the debt did. The investments boosted the economy more than the cost of the debt. After the mid-2000s, debt began to rise faster than GDP, ie the cost of the debt was greater than the returns on investing it.)

    People referring to the Lehman collapse (filed for bankruptcy Sept 2008), but China has the advantage of having seen America go through that and how the AIG bailout was unfair to the taxpayer.

    Evergrande also is different in that it has wealth management unit, so depositors are earning interest, but now Evergrande is trying to offer them property (not good property, but things like parking spaces in ghost cities, since all the good stuff they had which could be sold has been sold or pledged against specific debts) if they want.

    In China, some protests on the streets. Some are by employees who haven't been paid.

    Investing experts have said that although this is just now a big global story moving markets, it's been known for a long time. Commodities were ahead, with iron ore halving since July, for example. China's share of commodities consumption globally is somewhere between 40 and 70% of global supply (20% of global supply just to Chinese real estate).

    $310b in obligations globally owed by Evergrande. They have a crucial payment on their offshore bonds in a few days, and people think they might miss it. This debt is held in large amounts by Ashmore Group, BlackRock, UBS, and HSBC, among others, lots in bonds held in vehicles that focus on riskier EM or Asian credits.

    A risk is that if all these property owners cut their prices, it will affect also mortgages, and could cause a chain reaction. Late payments of this size could trigger cross-defaults.

    Evergrande also has a business model where it relies on customers paying for properties before construction (which this finances). Hundreds of thousands of Chinese have put down downpayments for things that possibly might not now be built.

    Real estate is responsible for 30% of China's economic output.

    Real estate investment is a large part of investment for Chinese people, due to the expectation values will continue to rise as dramatically as they have done in the past decades. It's been reported that houses costs about 45x average annual income, which is very high globally. Part of the interest in investing in property is due to lack of options in that country, where there tend to be significant levels of scams, and Chinese businesses haven't panned out as great places to invest either. There's also a social pressure to own a house in China. Chinese men reportedly can't get find a wife without having a house.

    If Evergrande isn't bailed out and Chinese are caused by their government to rethink property values, it would change the values of loans on the books currently, since they were all (last 30 years of loans) based on assumptions about how the government support them rather than on the borrowers ability to pay back.

    Most of Evergrande's debt is held in China which people think can absorb the loss, and the overseas debt is trading currently at about 30c on the dollar (US denominated debt at around 80c). Some think the CCP might cause Evergrande to pay back Chinese lenders first (there will just be more political will to pay the small wealth management investors in China than foreign lenders, regardless of seniority and capital structure), but that would cause an interesting situation where Chinese companies seeking outside investors going forward might not have as easy a time.

    S&P was down like 1.5% the day the news hit.

    Another issue is that while the Chinese have allowed the CCP to rule authoritarianly, they may be less likely to support the CCP if the country is no longer growing and making people all more wealthy. Combined with slowing population growth. Also, while Chinese exports continue to increase, this is due not to genuine productive potential, but rather to the price growth of commodities, it has been said.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 11,2021
  • EU fined WhatsApp (FB) $270m for privacy violations

    Someone commented that until it's over a billion or double-digit billions FB will view these fines as costs of doing business, and that the EU is using the company as an ATM.

    #BigTech #EU #Law
     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 30,2021
  • Luxury brand loss, China

    45% of luxury spending is by the Chinese consumer, ahead of the US.

    More purchases are within China than before and this trend is expected to continue (rather than go abroad to buy them cheaper).

    The government may be making it sort of culturally taboo to flaunt wealth with luxury purchases. China is cracking down on wealthy spenders.

    4 big luxury stocks, LVMH, Richemont, Kering and Hermes, have lost $85b together in last 2 weeks. Arnot was the world's richest man at the beginning of this month, but his $200b went down $22b and he's now 3rd.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 19,2021
  • Chip shortage touches Toyota

    Inventory reaching limits (it is suspected the reason), Toyota is cutting N America production from 150k to 90k.
     
  • 60% of Americans paid no federal income tax last year (2020)

    107m households paid none. So around 20m households paid, ti looks like. For reference to a normal year, in 2019 76m households didn't pay any -- it's been around this number for the last decade.

    Tax credits and higher unemployment during the pandemic is the reason. An example is a household that almost reached the income rate where they would pay taxes, but then received a few stimulus payments, which put them into the category of nonpayers.

    Fed income taxes don't include payroll taxes. 80% of households paid at least payroll taxes in 2020.

    The number is expected to go down this year just a few percent (to 57%) and then return to around 40% in 2022, as long as the economy recovers. However, Congress made some changes for 2021 which will have less households paying, such as an increased child tax credit, earned income tax credit, and child and dependent care tax credit (affects millions of families).

    The country is undecided how to deal with tax revenue. In 2020 80% of fed income taxes were paid by the top 20% of earners (30% of fed income taxes were paid by the top 1%, which is up from 25% in 2019). Democrats want high earners to pay more, while Republicans say they already pay quite a bit.


    CNBC: 61% of Americans paid no federal income taxes in 2020, Tax Policy Center says   
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 12,2021
  • China economics, summer 2021

    We have got more info from the CCP on which sectors they really want to promote, as opposed to those whose recent growth has been seen to cause them problems (as usual for closed, authoritarian governments, this includes industries that control information).

    EV, clean energy, and industrial upgrading have policy tailwinds, according to JPM's Julia Wang.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 31,2021
  • Breakfast economics

    In the past year, bacon went up 10%, fruit 6%, and just 0.2 and 0.3 for cereal and for coffee (but sugar is up over 3% because its ocean-freight transported). Consumer price index went up 4.2% yoy in April.

    Corn is up 50%, which is 96% of what farmed animals eat in the US, which exports to the world. China is importing a ton to try to build up its hog supply again, while other countries like Brazil and Argentina have recently had drought (which also narrows rivers and reduces transport ability). Also, 10% of US gas is ethanol. Shipping costs are up, too, because of the labor issue. As you see, a lot of the costs in these products involve labor costs.

    Restaurant meals are up 4% in cost. Takeout trays are yet another part of this--prices went up after a Texas storm took out a factory.

    Some economists talk about 'wage price spirals,' where both wages and prices go up in a relationship. It was an issue in the 70s. The Fed says inflation is transitory.

    This was an idea from Wall Street Journal.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 22,2021
  • Economic concerns raised by former Wells Fargo CEO

    ... Kevin Kovacevich: Inflation (2-3% increase in salary for average worker, and 4-5% inflation on just the basics like food, gas, consumer goods); trillion dollar deficits already and trillion more if Biden admin gets budget passed.

    Markets at all time high. Kovacevich's idea is that the market is priced alright based on where rates are now, but once that changes in the coming year or years the market will look differently.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 19,2021
  • Tigray war may cost $2.5b according to estimates

    TPLF has conquered most of the north and south of Tigray.

    Ethiopia is one of Africa's largest aid recipients. The US alone contributed a billion in 2020, and therefore has some leverage. Investing in Ethiopia right now comes with significant reputational risks, making companies more reluctant to submit massive investment bids.

    Ethiopia is finishing their dam and stressing tensions with Egypt and Sudan. The dam fits in with Abiy's plan to lift Ethiopians into a higher economic class. Sudan might benefit from a huge energy production facility on it's border for it's own energy needs.

    Getting ahead of things, but if Egypt was to take up a campaign against Ethiopia, due to the huge distance, it would have to use Sudan.

     
  • OPEC reached a deal to increase 400k barrels per day to production

    Oil was down about 2.5% (although the Dow was down 2% on inflation, stagflation, and Delta variant concerns) and oil company stocks more than that. Natural gas was up less than a percent.

    However, projections have it that demand will want 1m or more barrels more per day next year, assuming no more lockdowns.

    US producers could surge new production and crash the market. But no one wants to invest in new exploration. Most companies are hedged at a $50 range.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 09,2021
  • Alibaba wants to compete with Amazon in shipping

    Arguably, this is the one real strength Amazon currently has, as it's catalog seems less and less impressive.

    Alibaba already has good warehousing and distribution, as shown in how it handles China's 'Singles' Day.'

    Ali also has a payment company and other businesses that help speed up shipping.

    For delivery, Ali depends on partnerships with airlines and ground-based delivery co's (DHL).

    Ali wants to expand the products it offers to its 190 countries and charge $3 per year for fast (like 2-day) shipping. Amazon currently charges between $13 and $130 per year, depending on location (India, UK).

    Ali's product prices are comparatively cheaper than Amazon, because Ali has direct access to the Chinese producers.

    Ali sells a lot of alleged counterfeits, though, which hurts the real companies. Amazon also has faced these criticisms, but less so.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 29,2021
  • Americans overwhelmingly don't want to go back to their jobs this year

    A recent poll found almost 100% of people don't want to return to the office after being in their homes over the past year. They prefer the life of spending more time with friends and family. They're considering finding a new job.

    There are also more jobs available then ever. 9.3m jobs in April.

    People are asking whether the stimulus so far or the stimulus expected in the future have contributed to people not wanting to get jobs, but data doesn't seem convincing one way or another.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 27,2021
  • China industrial profits slowing, reportedly

    Their numbers are still growing, but according to analysts the growth is slowing, comparing the same month in different years. China's economy is still projected to grow 8% in 2021: strong growth.

    Also, small company profits are growing less than those of bigger companies.

    Rising commodity prices are squeezing profits for downstream companies, accounting for some of the slowdown in profits.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 16,2021
  • Tech subsidies ending, but damage might already be done

    For years, maybe since around 2012 people were not paying the 'true price' for tech commodities, but now that the tech subsidies are ending, they might have already killed all their competition, leaving consumers with higher prices and less selection.

    The most commonly cited example is Uber. Years ago, you could get an Uber for less than a yellow cab. Real businesses can't compete with artificially low prices, so many of the taxis have gone out of business, and now there's just Uber and only a few cabs in some areas, but at Uber prices double or triple what they were when Uber was 'competing' with its competitors.

     
  • Nord Stream 2 almost finished, despite US sanctions along the way

    The U.S. will have a hard time competing with Russian gas anyway, in serving Europe. Russian gas is cheaper and is said to be greener.

  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 14,2021
  • Lordstown Motors CEO and CFO have resigned

    ... amid shortselling investigation, but having more to do perhaps with the company saying they had 'substantial doubt' they could continue next year. Shares were down 10%.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 13,2021
  • Turkey has approved development of a new canal beside the Bosporus

    The Bosporus is Turkey's, but due to the 1936 Montreux Convention it can't allow non-Black Sea State navy ships to pass through, and it can't charge for the passage of civilian vessels during peacetime. The new Istanbul Canal would not have such restrictions.

    It is expected to be around 45km long, 21m deep, and 360-275m wide (top and bottom) and cost $15b. It will sit around 30km west of the Bosporus Straight, and will be spanned by 6 bridges, all high enough to clear the largest ships (which will cost another $1.4b).

    Currently, ships have to wait around 14 hours to enter the Black Sea due to congestion of the Bosporus. Estimates have it that revenue from the canal could amount to $8b per year eventually, if vessels decide to pay, which it is uncertain they will. Turkey will also be able to send dangerous cargo on a route further away from the city center.

    Istanbul citizens polled in 2020 opposed the project (80% opposed) due to environmental and other effects they will be faced with. It's also opposed by Russia which sees the potential ability of US and NATO warships to enter the Black Sea as a national security threat. 104 former Turkish naval officers also publicly opposed the project (the next day 10 were arrested).

      
  • Between 2019 and 2020, toy sales were up 16%, and figures appear to be up even more for the current year.

    Hasbro, as the biggest maker of board games, stood out because they saw a lift to their entire business, as did the makers of Lego.
  • Lots of talk about billionaires not paying taxes

    No one knows how the journalists at ProPublica got hold of tax records for several years for some of the richest Americans.

    Bezos, Musk, Soros, Buffet, etc., paid what appear to be small dollar figures in income tax for certain years (some years $0, some years around $70k were the most quoted figures, dating back to the year 2011). This is because they don't generally make income (particularly when you're talking about each year). Instead, they hold assets. Their largest asset is generally company stock, which is only taxed if it is sold (capital gains). Some years, they need to raise cash and so they take loans against their assets. This is not taxable.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 12,2021
  • El Salvador adopts Bitcoin

    The country doesn't have their own currency and uses USD. This means they can't print money, and that can be an issue when you're a net importer like El Salvador is (they could run out of dollars without the ability to print).

    They also have high unemployment, and 70% of the population doesn't have a bank account, and many Salvadoreans receive money from relatives working in more prosperous countries (about 25% of Salvadoreans live outside the country, and the money they send accounts for 20% of El Salvador's GDP). Money transfers are always a challenge with conventional institutions, and can involve high fees for each transfer (sometimes as high as 10%, which is of course good for banks).

    The bill passed Congress (62 out of 84 votes) to make El Salvador first country to accept crypto as an official method of payment ('unrestricted legal tender') beside the USD.

     
  • May, 2021
  • May 20,2021
  • Bitcoin drops 30%

    Basically all crypto dropped significantly, after months of increased speculative buying.

    Other factors in the drop: further talk of regulation, ESG (energy use) concerns regarding mining, and China cracking down on crypto.

    In somewhat related crypto news, Bitmix reportedly ceased operations, not long after the tentative conclusion of the DarkSide pipeline hack. Bitmix was a crypto money laundering service used by ransomware hackers.

    Musk tweeted a "diamond hands" image, signifying he wasn't selling.

    About a month later, Musk tweeted a more positive comment on energy concerns with crypto mining, causing Bitcoin to rise from around $35k to around 40k.



     
  • May, 2021
  • May 08,2021
  • Corn, soy, wheat prices up

    The reasons include China buying more because the country is rebuilding its hog herd after major losses in 2019 and last winter (African Swine Fever); draught in Brazil and ongoing dry conditions in the U.S (two major suppliers); and traders trying to hedge inflationary risks.

    The robust Chinese demand is expected to continue for 2-4 years. Additionally, rising incomes in developing countries could keep food prices moving upward.

    There isn't much alternative (such as rice and wheat) to feeding livestock good grains (corn and soy beans) when a livestock economy is focused on maximizing gains and quality, as China's is.

    Offsetting factors to inflation in food prices have started to be seen in more elastic demand factors, such as Chinese animal protein demand, where indications are consumers are starting to pull back due to prices. Also, the supply side, if robust enough, could put downward pressure on prices. We'll see how robust U.S. production turns out to be this year in the June Acerage Report, as the U.S. is still planting this years crops.

    Rice prices aren't up in the same way because stocks have been built up over the past few years.


    USDA Acreage Reports
     

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  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • If we are not strong enough deny ourselves apps, why not use law against them? Maybe we aren't willing to just give up the app and let everyone else keep using it, because then we become the only engaged person in a group of tuned-outs, but the same person might be willing to ban it for everyone.
    ADHD symptoms from screentimes, SSRIs, willing to put young boys on them for running around ie normal kids.
    Chamath took one of his kids off apps, not a little but totally off meats, when he was diagnosed with ADHD and was prescribed meds. Chamath and his wife were like nope no meds and took their kid off apps. He said the turnaround was amazing. This now charming, engaged kid.

    Apple bought DarwinAI (and it's AI-related doctorates). Shrinking LLMs. Apple wants its AI to run on their little devices. Apple usually buys smaller companies with things they can turn into features, rather than large already-developed companies.

    Dark Web Vendors Are Using Drones for Delivery - YouTube
    Only with Octopus!

    People Use GPS 'Jammers' to Stop Tracking of Their Cars - YouTube
    In Finland.

    Iterative deployment. Rather than build in secret until they got to GPT5 they talked about 1 2 3 and 4. AI and surprise don't go together, and people institutions need time to adapt and think about these things. They pay attention to the progress, and take AI seriously. They think about what systems and regulations we want in place before the moment is crucial.

    ‘I think when a system can significantly increase the rate of scientific discovery in the world, that’s a huge deal.' Sam Altman

    Altman talked about the best thing that people can see coming from ‘OpenAI’, that they provide free tools which the public can use to make things. However, so far we only have a fairly lame chatbot for doing small wrote tasks and mini coding projects. No large wrote tasks, no even medium sized coding.

    Phone Co Employee Caught SIM-Swapping for Bribes - YouTube
    Dual-factor logins are a tool to get in, using this attack.
    The government for some reason didn't reveal the name of the company.
    So someone goes to a guy who works at a telecom company, and they give him $1000 per swap, and they provide him with the name of the person they want access to, and the worker can provide a copy of the SIM which they can use with 2FA to log into his accounts.


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 15,2024
  • I think it's possible to create other crypto properties (than bitcoin). Saylor

    Car Companies Are Tracking You and Selling Your Data - YouTube
    Car insurance companies raising rates.
    People are unaware they agreed to hve their cars give that data, and the companies are selling the data. They don't know what info was sold, how much, to whom? The companies offer to lower the rate you pay in exchange for this data. That part is voluntary, but besides that in the cars there tracking technologies that know everywhere you went, where you buy certain things, the range of your territory. Facial geometric features, behavioural characteristics, biological characteristics, sex life, genetic data, religeons, philosopical beliefs, are all possible to get.
    If you don't authorize the collection, your infotainment center doesn't work, or whatever. You can't opt out of it.
    Passengers and individuals outside the vehicle also.
    Consumers are in the dark about this.
    Commenter: ’Insurance companies are not using this to AFFECT your rates, they're using it to RAISE your rates.'
    The state governments also know everything about you and sells your data. It seems weird but hasn't been challenged.
    Ed Markey, senator, wrote a letter about it.
    General Motors sells detailed driver logs without your consent - YouTube

    The closest to a science fiction government is Singapore. Large investments coupled with technocratic, technological literacy. UK in the 1940s, with radar and computers, speed of breakthroughs. Rest of nations, scientific spending is by consensus, cutting a check for superconventional non-objectional things built in China.
    What China could build for us.

    AI Agents Take the Wheel: Devin, SIMA, Figure 01 and The Future of Jobs - YouTube
    SIMA robots. AIs that train on some things have capabilities in other applications.
    Also Figure 1, the dishwashing robot.
    'No one is really in control.'
    Sam Altman and Jensen Huang both say AGI will surpass all tasks in 5 years.
    Garbage companies and farms, anyone?

    Tesla is the worst performing stock in the S&P and in the Nasdaq since January.

    Costco does no innovation, changes nothing, and is up 250% in a couple years. Why isn't anyone copying this model?
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 11,2024
  • Arson attack shuts down Tesla's Gigafactory near Berlin | DW News - YouTube
    Who would do this and why?

    OpenAI fires back at Elon Musk: Here's what you need to know - YouTube
    Microsoft Copilot Red Teams are finding disturbing images even with generic terms like ‘pro choice’. Violent, sexual images.

    Facebook and Apple are opensourcing their AI models?

    Elon was more concerned about Google back when forming OpenAI. Now people guess he's more concerned about Microsoft.

    Mexicans are not reliant on refrigeration in their culinary arts. We and the Soviets were early pioneers in food refridgeration. That made a lot of our foods a lot worse quite early. And it took a long time to dig out of that. Extensive rail system that makes it shippable frozen. Tyler Cowen. Mexicans hang their meat to dry in the open air until it turns green.

    TikTok crackdown gains momentum - YouTube
    Trump said he could have banned it but left it to the DOJ because it was a tough decision. A lot of people like TikTok, and if it were banned Facebook would get bigger which Trump considers an enemy of the people. (Trump's content, it is guessed, gets a lot of traction on TikTok.)
    Half (150m) of the US uses TikTok.
    Temu and Shien followed the first big Chinese internet company succeeding in the US over the past couple years. These companies make a lot in the US, and China doesn't permit similar US apps to compete in the Chinese space.
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 05,2024
  • This Malware Will Hijack Your Bank Account And Gmail - YouTube
    Cookie hacking.

    Linus Torvalds: Speaks on Fatigue and the Future of Linux - YouTube
    On driver side, on Rust side, they can find young people more easily to work on it.
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 01,2024
  • The Failure of Modern Technology | Peter Thiel - YouTube

    ‘industrial power is the basis of any great civilization’
    You need fullstack factories.
    They're Reimagining How to Build Anything | Hadrian - YouTube
    You cannot be missing one part of a product. You need to be able to access ie produce it.

    Lawfirm Loses $60K Relying on ChatGPT in the Courtroom - YouTube
    It will make up stuff because it's easier than looking up stuff - Lehto
    Remarkable not reliable.

    The Future of Bitcoin Mining - YouTube

    Tech Stagnation and What's Holding Us Back - YouTube
    Burja called cellphones portable terminals, on which all we really get tech wise is install app updates, like chatGPT you can talk to. The last thing before chatGPT was maybe GoogleMaps. Facebook/Myspace. Internet has now reached everyone. There's no doubling of how many people use the internet. Also we can't really increate the amount of time we spend on the internet. What more can companies monetize?
    Facebook had been considering becomming the main internet provider for India (before Zuck decided to go for metaverse), but regularatory challenges ...
    There are no fully 3d printed products (just parts), a fully funcitoning, multi-material, moving parts product.

    If cars came along now, the dangers would maybe not be acceptable (as they were because cars were introduced so early). Maybe speed limits would be set at double the pace of walking or something. Samo

    The industrial world remains unoptimized. The software gains of getting everyone to use spreadsheets have already been gotten, while those of putting cameras everywhere in the factory have not been explored much. Samo

    The White House Endorses Rust - YouTube
    To prevent Memory attacks. Don't write in C, C+. Use C#, Go, Java, Python, Rust and Swift. For space systems, it was noted in the brief. Currently people are disincentivized from Rust because there's not a lot of jobs that use it. Solana is written in Rust. Some people think Rust is a fad. But if government jobs start asking for Rust would lead to people learning it. It's a challenging language. It would add cost to projects. But there would be costs saved in fixing exploited code.
    This seems like actually decent advice from an untrusted source. Goals aligned.
    You can write a custom kernel that is flat and runs baremetal on a rPi to do a blink light rust runs on EVERYTHING (no operating system, just Rust) - YouTube with no need for linux/any OS.
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • TECHNOLOGY
    Novonordisk is a company specialized in trying to understand diabetes. It tries to advance knowledge R&D even at the expense of profits. Scientists within sometimes are promoted to manager roles.
    This is different from like Moderna or something which economically just tries out new compounds and then patents them and sells them for their 7year window. What they want is a slightly different compound that's patentable that you own legally monopoly for 10 years.
    You could argue the patent system should be stronger or weaker. The FDA could only check if something is harmful, not if it is useful. Samo.

    FBI issues new warning about QR code scams - YouTube
    I've been more than surprised the past few years people scanning QR scans at restaurants to use the menu.

    Feb 15 OpenAi dropped Sora video editor, 60 second fairly realistic clips. 1 year ago it was pretty crappy 5 second videos.
    Open AI Releases the BEST AI Video Generator BY FAR. Sora Text to Video - YouTube

    Future data centres may have built-in nuclear reactors | BBC News - YouTube

    Chinese Hacking Tools Exposed in Giga Leak (I-S00N) - YouTube

    Chinese Cranes Pose a Security Risk: Los Angeles Port Chief - YouTube
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024
  • Apple Vision Pro - CRAZY FEATURES - YouTube
    You can 3d scan people's faces ‘with their permission’ and use that as your persona, ie you scan them and can do face time as them.

    NYPD subway robot removed from service - YouTube
    Nopes.

    One of the reasons Lenovo is accepted around the world is that it is structurally not set up well to do something nefarious. It's basically a systems integrator, everything they sell is made of notoriously standardized components. Sysadmins and hobbiests can understand. The software too. Standard 3rd party parts. Slower, decentralized, diplomatic.

    Tech companies were 'hoarding the talent,' says Slow Ventures' Sam Lessin - YouTube

    Apple's next iphone might have AI, and do things your current phone can't do.

    Watch how easy it is to steal a car | Marketplace - YouTube
    Some sold in Lagos.

    Where I want people is to interact with machines. I'm fine with a robot cooking the food, as long as a person is checking what they're doing, and especially checking the ingredients within arms reach of the robot. I'm fine with robots doing mechanics on my vehilcle, programming my websites, medical work, and with these it may well be preferable, but you need a person to answer the phone to handle any customer inquiries/complaints, a person to interface between you and the service robot etc. However, for now it looks like companies are trying to do the opposite, ie automate the customer service, which means lower quality service not higher.
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024
  • Tictok, X, Meta, Discord, Snap at Congress. Hostile was a word journalists used.
    On display is Zuckerburg's lack of sophistication. I guess when you have the most important companies in the world possible to build by people who have no more capabilities than basic coding and a desire to rate girls at college as a project (none of the social, managerial, engineering, etc capabilities traditional to large company building, nor the legal, accountable etc ones traditional to large and powerful industries (perhaps unnecessary because of the speed of scale), what can you expect?
    Seeing him grilled and attacked with the most unfair, irrational and not even logical attacks by Congress members, I naturally take his side, but then I remember the reason for this is he hasn't really tried to make a good product or accountable, and has allowed negative politics, censorship, etc. When he shows his self by responding how he does, I just think Ah it's not that he's really malignant, it's just that he probably is not capable of understanding or responding to such challenges.
    You can consider that in a society that would prevent such things by limiting the speed and extent they can rise in use and power, you could see that Zuckerberg would today probably be a low level coder, or maybe would have switched fields.

    Tictok's CEO showed himself more competant, as competant as you'd expect from someone appointed to his job, but didn't answer such questions as why topics which the Chinese government is sensitive to are ‘censored’ or ‘shown less’ in China (although he said Tiktok isn't available in China, so that would require more information to understand).

    I wonder how X did? They're the only ones who've made (unpopular at the time and now) changes to try to address some problems.

    Google is getting a lot of negative forcasts from news. That it's search is going to be competed against by cleaner, easier, more informative search, many use AI. People do search on Tiktok now, or search for things on Insta.
    Obvious though that those competitors will need to monetize. Also, don't they have to compensate the sites and people they base their search results on?
    Google Search had 92% of search a year ago when ChatGPT launched, and has 92% today.
    It's the default search on almost all mobiles.
    No one has more data than Google.

    Drones are a huge leveler. Our air defenses are not capable. $2m for a rocket to shoot down a rocket that costs $2000.

    The houtis have missiles that can make it through the US's marine defense.


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • The power of TikTok Edits - YouTube

    '81% of new ULEZ cameras damaged' | Kelvin Mackenzie attacks Sadiq Khan's policy - YouTube

    META's new OPEN SOURCE Coding AI beats out GPT-4 | Code Llama 70B - YouTube
    It appears, don't jump to conclusions, but it appears Zuckerburg has done something positive.

    Comparing Google searches with AI: Here's what you need to know - YouTube
    Native AI search engines.

    Microsoft is probably spending $2b a quarter right now on GPUs, which doesn't leave a lot of money to buy whatever AMD and Intel are selling.

    U.S. forces may have mistaken enemy drone for American one in Jordan - YouTube
    So they let if fly by overhead.

    Lawmakers grill CEOs of Meta, TikTok, X, Snap and Discord at child safety hearing — 1/31/24 - YouTube (4 hours)


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 26,2024
  • The Big Tech companies spent like 24b in buying startups etc last year. Is it possible for any new company to get to scale without being bought up by these companies?


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • AI is eating the internet and we're all going to have to go back to the real world because the Internet is no longer trustworthy.

    Dating apps all trying to monetize. Keeping elite users unseen by most accounts. Lots of bots.

    Field drug tests wrongfully implicate tens of thousands of Americans every year, study finds - YouTube

    X-59 shown by NASA. No supersonic boom. Achieved by using a long, narrow airframe and canards to keep the shock waves from coalescing.

    Astonishing Anti Repair Practices By Apple In the Last 15 Years - YouTube

    Dead Teslas pack Chicago area Supercharger station due to frigid temps - YouTube

    ’UFO’ spotted by Beijing residents - YouTube

    Google cuts YouTube jobs in shift to AI - YouTube

    Will AI robot adoption be limited to temperate climates? Extreme cold adaptive strategies? Hot and humid?

    3 cloud companies handle 75% of the world's hosting. You may use a non-top 1 or 2 monopoly internet service, but it's hosted by them.

    TCP and IP connected all computers, ie the internet. HTTP created the second generation, connecting all data regardless of what device it was collected to. We went to the app age and all that data was sucked up. Frank McCourt, Executive Chairman and Founder, Project Liberty,

    "It Can Hit A Coin From A Mile Away" New 'Drone-Buster' Dragonfire Laser Is War Game-Changer - YouTube

    Microsoft hack could've been the start of a 'pretty significant campaign': SentinelOne's Alex Stamos - YouTube'

    CNBC investigates how to uncover hidden cameras in your house - YouTube
    Hidden cameras are illegal where most of them are produced, China.
    There is a profit motive.
    If a camera is behind glass, like the eyeball of a teddy bear or alarm clock, you can't see it even if you know it's there.

    Blade Runners: One Man Destroys EVERY SINGLE ULEZ Camera In His London Borough - YouTube
    A ‘secret army of masked vigilantes’. Vandalizing and stealing public cameras and facial recognition devices. Called ‘bladerunners.’ ‘We are the voice of the people.’ They say public support is widespread and regard them as heros. They hear people cheer when they do it and then know they have the support of the public.
    On Aug29 ULEZ expansion was decided by government, and the membership of the Blade Runners expanded with volunteers. ‘We’re like a pack of lone wolves, so we sometimes work together, we work in isolation, and we all have this common goal.' ‘No family members know.’
    #UK
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08,2024
  • Google begins to block cookies: What it means for consumers and advertisers - YouTube
    For 1% of customers using Chrome, as part of their goal of not having 3rd parties doing cookies.

    Hyundai Ioniq Repair Riddle: Why Does a Battery Cost $60,000? This is worse than Tesla! - YouTube

    Anderil making reusable drone-interceptor missiles. Smaller armies using cheap swarms of missiles and drones to overwhelm air defences of US on a per-unit basis.

    Are smartphones peaking? People skipping new versions, skipping upgrades. Price for new iPhone $1400.

    How meta built the infrastructure for Threads | Hacker News

  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 02,2024
  • iPhone passcode risks: What you need to know - YouTube

    They Found The iPhone Backdoor - YouTube


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023


  • Apple stops selling some Smartwatches Online - YouTube
    ‘US watch ban’.

    The $12 cellphone in India, has the two things Indians want most. Digital payments and video. But some people in India say there's no such thing and the cheapest phones being used are about $100. But the Jio phone is apparently being bought in rural areas.

    AI's content use battles: What you need to know - YouTube


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • Why Even Your Local Grocery Store Wants Your Digital Data - YouTube

    Because of the situation at the time, the arms race, we [went to the moon] before we quote-unquote should have gone. Bezos

    You have to be a world-class mathmetician to be a theoretical physicist today. Bezos

    Rockets love to be big. Bezos
    Parasitic mass, trivial if building a large rocket. Turbo pumps, more efficient when larger.

    When you can have a really valuable space company start out in a dorm room (because the heavy infrastructure is already there to build upon), that will be a marker of success. - Bezos
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 12,2023
  • WSJ's Jeff Horwitz: Instagram's algorithm delivers toxic video mix to adults who follow children - YouTube

    The future of war and AI with Palmer Luckey - YouTube
    AI rocket-powered reusable missile, which can attack drones.

    Hands-on with Gemini: Interacting with multimodal AI - YouTube
    The stock didn't go up.

    BREAKING: IDF Pumps Water from Mediterranean Sea to Flood Out Hamas Terror Tunnels | TBN Israel - YouTube
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023

  • AI pin by a company called Humane. It's worn on your breast and takes photo and audio. Camera glasses were also relaunced (after the version attempted years ago ended with people getting punched for wearing them). Public spaces will no longer be fun except for vloggerwhores, unless there is publicPrivacy laws passed or the punching people become common.

    Socially negative products.

    With social media, you can go on and set the record straight, even after the entire media attacks you, successfully labels you, the state processes you as suits them. You can go on and say, if you think so, come see how I live my life. - Schreli said this stuff

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKTn_i1PMd4

    Community Notes. For one to be shown, people who have historically disagreed must agree in order for a note to be shown. #Musk on X/Twitter

    All the code and all the data are open source and can be reproduced.

    Tesla never learn what pedestrians or cars or anything are. It learnt itself from video.

    ‘Well, how do you know it won’t get the idea to murder us (AGI, which should be able to enter into any state, have any idea)? Well, that's the problem that has beset us forever. And that's the problem that was solved with liberalism and the enlightenment. And now we know how to do it. We know how to bring people up in a society that makes it extremely unlikely that they will become enemies of civilization. ... But it's not inevitable. It will all depend on what we chose to do.' - Deutch Explains

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoGSbdkuY_o

    Microsoft is getting OpenAI now, I guess. The organization/relationships were compromised and made a mess, after which they can offer deals. It seems they have it as either deal the workers take, they get them. Years/months ago, Musk noted Microsoft would probably get OpenAI.

    People have commented on how big an effect SF has had, since in Silicone Valley almost no companies have any ability to protect company secrets (due in part to California law interpreting noncompete or something). People can leave anytime and reuse what they know, so it might mostly depend on compensation. Is there anything in their model that favors morality/human rights?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_x7NSw0Irc0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BVd9qEuatw

  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • When EV makers go bankrupt, what will happen to the car?

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • The NYPD just unveiled a new crime-fighting robot to patrol subways - YouTube 

    Tom Hanks issued a message that there was an ad of him for some dental company and it was just AI and he ‘was not involved.’

    Most AI-domination scenarios "quite stupid," distract from real issues: AI safety expert - YouTube 

    AI is a partner, not autonomous. It is asked for things, and the result is massaged as it's giving it.

    Scaling possibilities.

    How Israel's Iron Dome is struggling, seems to be just the barrage, which is more things at a time than they are built to respond to. DDoS.

    City Used Tax Dollars to Spy on Residents - YouTube 

    Voters widely rejected the city council's plan to build a sports arena. Then they paid $10k per month (for 3 months) to watch opponents of the proposed arena. The real question is What are you going to do with the information about opponents once you got it? because that wouldn't be in the contract.

    Putting something on a ballet means it is expected to have some opposed and some for. Ie democracy? But this seems to imply that the government wanted to find out who opposed and do something to alter this.

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 25,2023

  • WhatsApp Probe: SEC Collects Private Messages, Reuters Says - YouTube 

    “People are 'afraid to talk to people on places like WhatsApp and ... Signal.”

    The collection of private messages. Expanding.

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 18,2023
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren calls for investigation into Elon Musk's Starlink - YouTube 

    After word Musk's policy has been and is that starlink shan't work like 100km off Crimea so that Ukraine can't launch a ‘mini-Pearl Harbour-like’ attack on Crimea. This happened after he found out Ukraine wanted to do this, and he turned off starlink there secretly. According to a biographer.


    Caesars Entertainment data breach exposes driver's license, social security numbers - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04,2023
  • India landed on the moon. Fourth nation to do so.




    Elon Musk's X will collect your biometric data - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023

  • Apple settles lawsuit over throttling iPhone battery - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 14,2023
  • US army soldiers receiving in the mail packages with smart watches they didn't buy (it's guessed they were sent with some pretext to not tip off the receivers), and when they set them up, they connect to their smart phones and send account/bank/passwords/etc to the hackers, and perhaps use the camera and mic. The army warning letter reporting on this seemed to say the watches were connecting to the phones without any user setup, using some vulnerability or something.

    Search for doing tasks. Search used to be about look up info, buy things, and navegation. Soon it will be for questions and insights, and also for doing tasks.
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 05,2023
  • Insurance company drops customer saying a 'drone' took photos of clutter in yard - YouTube 

    ...





    ...

    80% of people lie on their dating profiles.

    ...







    ...



    White House secures voluntary pledges from Microsoft, Google to ensure A.I. tools are secure - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 19,2023
  • OpenAi wants $100b in 3 years, so it will have to make a lot of money to get that kind of investment. - Musk

    Popular but wrong answers. People have commented how when ChatGPT was first released it was giving answers different from after people started the mass use, for example that there were 2 genders and then there were more.
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 14,2023

  • ...

    SF group placing traffic cones on self-driving cars to disable them - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 03,2023
  • “Who'd have though Microsoft and Mark Zuckerberg are spearheading the opensource movement?” - Lex

  • How TikTok Became a ‘Billion-Person Focus Group’ for U.S. Companies | WSJ Tech News Briefing - YouTube  

  • Sold like 300k of them.
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 26,2023
  • Hacked ChatGPT Accounts Are Being Sold On the Dark Web - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 17,2023
  • AI is high-tech plagarism. It's auto-complete guessing with a large database. - Chompsky

    Has seemed the same to me.

    “But it's dangerous,” he said. People think they're talking to a person. You ask Alexa should I leave my wife, and you don't pay much attention, but if it's a chatbot you do pay attention, and there are already documented cases of people falling for what a chatbot says.

    Terrific technique of defamation and disinformation. Especially with image creation. You can create an image, put someone's name under it.
  • Apple is up to no good - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 11,2023
  • Some opensource LFMs are just trained on prompts and responses. Good for pattern-matching. If a question varies even just a little bit from their pattern-matching understanding, their ability to find out what the answer might be becomes highly limited. Whereas the student who fundamentally and deeply understands a topic won't be thrown off by any variation of the question. They'll be able to reason and step-by-step get to the answer.

    Orca uses teacher assistance from ChatGPT(3.5 and 4). The model is asked to provide how it came to its response (justify your response, explain step-by-step, eli5), and that is used to train.
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 04,2023
  • Attorney accused in Boston rapes, arrested with help of genetic genealogy - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 01,2023

  • Amazon workers plan to walk out over ‘lack of trust’ in leadership - YouTube 
  • May, 2023
  • May 30,2023
  • Ford will use Tesla charging unit, doubling the charging stations its customers have access to.

    (There is no standard charge technology. Biden was pushing for the other commonly used one, which other big auto makers are using. But now Ford and Telsa might swing things the other way.
  • May, 2023
  • May 22,2023
  • People are lining up for a free TV that spies on you - YouTube 
  • May, 2023
  • May 20,2023
  • May, 2023
  • May 18,2023

  • Vehicle costs $700k, and including transport and installation to site maybe $1m. They want to put 1000 at the 1000 biggest river mouths.

    Why does it cost so much? Can't they just use a couple existing boats to drag the line across and the other to harvest the waste?

    A lot of garbage doesn't float, like plastic bags and diapers.

    Some say politicians don't want to actually reduce pollution, because that decreases the need for spending on pollution.

    What is the effect of this on the ecosystem? Doesn't it need the non-garbage things washed down to the ocean during rainfalls?

    Most of the garbage harvested in the 35k tonnes appeared to be sticks and twigs.
     
    The river is not a commercially frequented one, so there are questions about how this can be implemented on others that are, like Frisco Bay.
  • May, 2023
  • May 17,2023

  • He removed a ton of images that were requested to be removed.

    A lot of models you don't know what's in their dataset, so they might be 'weird.' His dataset is opensource, so it can be understood.

    "We believe that Open is required for auditable models, for private data, IP-rich data, and there's a business model that's amazing for that." "Especially if you're talking about regulated industry."

    He said you can have both. Closed models for things that's good for, and Open for private data.

    In all their models they have invisible watermarking, and they have attribution coming soon.

    "50% of code on GitHub is AI-generated now."

    He signed the FLI paper with Musk and others.


  • May, 2023
  • May 16,2023
  • Sam Altman testified to Congress today

    Unlike what we've seen over the past few years with Tech Giants being called in, and the 'adversarial' style, Altman and Congress seemed birds of a feather in attitude.

    Congress wants to get ahead of AI, unlike SocialMedia. They don't want to have another one just growing and breaking things (it broke culture, health, truth, politics), and then try to go backwards and reel it in, which they find themselves going against billionaire/trillionaire companies tied to power. Also, they clearly didn't understand Tech when they were dealing with TechGiants in Congressional hearings. They seem more savvy with AI.

    Even though Altman seems to be amenable and docile, will it matter? There was no suggestion of anything that could actually be done. There were some hypothetical suggestions, but nothing said that seemed like something that could actually be effective. Except maybe one interesting thing raised by the woman on the pane. That anything that's AI must be labelled as AI, so we know we're interacting with it, and that we can't be interacting with an AI posing as a person.
  • May, 2023
  • May 13,2023
  • Twitter reportedly blocked content in Turkey before the election.

    Elon appointed a CEO (female) yesterday for Twitter. He'll be tech overseer or soemthing.

    https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/13go26v/twitter_blocks_content_in_turkey_one_day_before/

  • May, 2023
  • May 12,2023

  • Signed malware for MSI products.
     
    "Clearly a screwup from the company."
  • May, 2023
  • May 10,2023

  • Carlson has home studios he built during the pandemic, and a loyal audience. Question about how this can be monetized, but seems pretty straightforward if he can get viewers.
  • May, 2023
  • May 08,2023
  • US airlines mishandled about 3m bags in 2022
     
    Baggage fees is a $30b industry in US.

    2% of AA's $50b was baggage fees.

    Southwest doesn't charge for bags. But most companies charge about $30 per.
  • US airlines mishandled about 3m bags in 2022
  • May, 2023
  • May 05,2023
  • There was a company(s) that had clauses in their contracts that said 'no class actions' but some smartipants lawyer got together with an app maker to make an app that allowed individuals to easily submit their own individual action, resulting in thousands of actions for the company.
     
    ChatGPT's usage contract has a 'mass filings' subsector that says if a large number (specific) file similar claims, through the same lawyer or office, they'll throw out a certain number. So they detail how they'll deal with that.

    They also have lots of indemnification in their contract. So if someone sues someone for something the second guy made with chatGPT, chatGPT can call him and say He you agreed to indemnify, defend and hold us harmless. They can hire lawyers and defend themselves and then send you the bill. 'Arising from or relating to' use of the services. So they can defend themselves, and find there was no wrong done, and they can still have the user pay. 


  • May, 2023
  • May 04,2023
  • Converting "ON-Grid" electronics to "Off-Grid" - DC to DC Conversion - YouTube 
  • May, 2023
  • May 01,2023
  • After arresting a journalist/activist/dissident, the State can use their Twitter account to send malicious links to other Twitter users, recent DarknetDiaries detailed
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 27,2023
  • German security company Nitrokey proves that Qualcomm chips have a backdoor and are phoning home
     
    Uber Accused of Charging People More If Their Phone Battery Is Low

    Surrey and Sussex police unlawfully recorded phone calls via app, watchdog finds


  • Apple is working [reporting based on anon sources] on emotion tracking tools feeding an AI-powered health coaching subscription service
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 09,2023
  • Our brains run at lower power, and if we make digital models run at lower power they'll have noise in them but that particular system will adapt to the kind of noise in that particular system, and it will work even at lower power, even though it won't run exactly the way you wanted.

    30w for our minds. 1mw for AI models. So models might be just trained on higher energy and then a smaller lower power version produced to use.


    ChatGPT doesn't know about truth. It's been trained on it, and it's trying to predict what people will type in search. It has to have a kind of blend of all these opinions. So that it can model what anybody might say. It's very different from a person who tries to have a consistent world view.

    "I think we're going to move towards systems that can understand different world views. If you have this world view, then this is the answer, and if you have this other world view ..."

    Do people get their own truths? What is 'a bad thing'?

    A governance challenge who makes these decisions.

    Google currently does not do this. It refers you to relevant documents.
     
    How to make it synergistic, so that it helps people? Can we do this with the current political system? Would Putin be trusted with this power? Will there be treaties to prevent use, like we have for other things?

    Does it need not just one or some people to be sensible, but for everybody to be sensible?


  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 08,2023

  • Will everything posted online become spam?

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 06,2023


  •  
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 01,2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 29,2023
  • Tech leaders and researchers call for 'pause' in AI race • FRANCE 24 English - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 28,2023
  • Microsoft threatens to restrict data from rival AI search tools - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 26,2023
  • GPT4 is almost such that you can't use it frivolously (as we have with every other computer innovation). - Skreli

    Productivity.

    DOS, PowerPoint, Excel.
  • AI search engine that gives you one search result instead of a whole page worth that you can look at yourself. - Switched To Linux

    Dumb down society.
     
    It gives us fewer answers and not more. (And not accurate.)
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 25,2023

  • Actually cites some concerns.


  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 23,2023

  • TikTok influencers protest outside US Congress against proposals to ban Chinese app | US News | WION - YouTube 
  • Upwork added a $3 charge for each contract you make with a worker. Why?
     
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 11,2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 01,2023
  • FBee, DowD, and Marshalls all had computers hacked this week
  • How scammers can use 'deep voice' AI technology to trick you | About That - YouTube 

  • Government devices, like in Canada and US.
    How long / will ever the same logic applied now to Chinese apps be applied to non-Chinese apps?


    What will the response from China mean for companies like Apple, whose devices are carried by millions of Chinese?

    Some analysts say the difficulty of moving an entire manufacturing process (like Apple's) to another country, the equipment, the knowhow), is such that it just won't happen. So Apple won't shift out of China wholesale, but Apple will duplicate their process in India, Malaysia, Ireland, Vietnam, Thailand.

    A quarter of Apple's revenue comes from China.
     
    There is a difference in two questions faced currently by companies allied with political groups. What's the right thing to do from a moral standpoint versus what's the right thing to do from a business standpoint?
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 28,2023
  • U.S. Marshals Service suffers from 'major' security breach - YouTube 

  • Driving a wedge in the middle of Linux. "Linux users can't come to the table in any form of unity as Linux users." “Corporatist.”

    “Ubuntu used to be one of the greatest things that brought people to Linux.”
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 26,2023

  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 20,2023

  • Seems we are getting a widespread view of the intentions, attitude, and propensity to act of AI.
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 19,2023

  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 15,2023
  • Gravitas: Iran unveils first-of-its-kind underground Airbase - YouTube 
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 25,2023
  • Swiss mountain. Lighting diverted with laser (warms air making it more conductive)
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 24,2023

  • Going to reiterate something from when cameras were first put in glasses (and not long after discontinued, after some regular people assaulted people wearing these invasive devices because they didn't want to be filmed at the restaurant or whatever).

    These types of spy devices are in favor with antisocial types of people, who care more about their want to film anything they want to film, and are hated by people who are considerate of others and who believe in the 'right to be left alone'.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 11,2023
  • Deepfake of Elon Musk high on drugs goes viral • FRANCE 24 English - YouTube 
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 06,2023

  • Talk here about how Google Search is ripe to be disrupted, because the amount of ads and low quality of search, and how you have to 'game' it to get something like results by adding 'reddit' to your searchphrase.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 04,2023
  • The Russian military claims its soldiers use of mobile phones led to the attack | DW News - YouTube 
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 31,2022

  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 24,2022
  • The ads bucketing issue

    Even YouTube shows scammy irrelevant ads, and if YouTube is having issues serving good ads Twitter will probably have some issues there. Musk
  • "I often hear people say they regret the time (2 hours) they spent on TikTok." - Musk

    "What we want to optimize for is unregretted true human user minutes. ... and with advertising, you want advertising that is as close to content as you can ... what you want, when you want it."

  • No one buys anything from Twitter, but lots buy from Insta. Why?

    Twitter was algo-coded to maximize impressions, which maximizes irrelevance (said Musk). Because if you click on an ad you lose 40% of your impressions total.

    "An ad that is highly relevant is content. An ad that is irrelevant is spam"

    "As relevant to people's needs as possible."

    Is this what it's like for Tech CEOs to work with code developers? Is it just because in this industry the skilled workers are younger than in other industries? Is this a stage in the industry where next year's top wanted developers learn how to work with their director?

    Or is there a question about how can you get tech coder workers to become workers who can work with other people? (if they just work alone all the time, have super high demand and so don't need to adjust themselves to their companies, and have high salaries)

     

  • Days after US Congress made headlines for being set to ban TikTok on government devices.

     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 08,2022

  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 05,2022
  • Silicon Valley has laid of like 100k people in the past 2 months

    Smaller tech companies maybe will have an easier time finding workers, since large tech used to be funded with cheap money and their stock price was at a high multiple, unlike now.

    Why has there been so few alternatives to the handful of big tech companies everyone uses but in general doesn't want to use?

    Small Business Administration funds small companies. Below market capital costs. For the first time, the labor is actually there to do so, noted Zeihan.
     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 04,2022
  • There are only two majors that translate into reasonably well-paying jobs outside of universities: computer science and petroleum engineering - Thiel

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 28,2022
  • Twitter sees record number of new users signing up - YouTube 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 21,2022


  •  
  • In legacy Big Tech (Facebook, Tesla), the vision means less and there's less premium from the founder, maybe

    Bill George said he thinks Zuckerburg might be tired. A year ago he changed the name of the company, which George thought might mean he was abandoning Facebook, and that Zuckerburg should hire a CEO and Zuckerburg could go be chair and chief creative officer in and focus on VR. He's spending $10b per year.

    "Someone has to restore [Facebook and Instagram], and if someone doesn't set some standards for the companies (both Musk and Zuckerburg), we're going to have forced regulations, which no one wants."

    The founders were seen as 'visionaries'. Not necessarily 'competent CEOs.'

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 20,2022

  • And a different story:

    Apple SUED for privacy violations; iOS collects invasive analytics even if you opt out. - YouTube   

  • Question: Wouldn't all Western countries leave the internet if it was created by another country?

    Map of countries that did internet blackouts to stop protesters et al from communicating



     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 18,2022

  • Musk stated an ultimatum, commit to work hardcore long hours by Friday or quit. Hundreds quit.

    How many of these walkouts just were workers who didn't want to work harder?


     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 17,2022

  • Control data collection on millions of users, and control information algo if they so chose.

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 13,2022
  • Signal Is Losing It's Way - YouTube 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 09,2022
  • Dalle-2 search frequency


     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 08,2022
  • Russian government asked tech department what the best replacement for Windows would be

    All 3 suggestions are Linux (because what else could it be, since there is nothing else?). Astra Linux, Alt OS, and Red OS.

    Russia didn't seem to even want to switch from Windows, but Microsoft has pulled out of Russia and stopped shipping to there, and stopped security updates and blocking access to Windows installation files.

    China has its own linux, called Kailin Linux.
     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 24,2022

  • Ethics in government decision-making. ... Public interest. ... "Incumbencies writing the laws." ... 2021 National Defense Authorization Act.

     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 22,2022

  • Is PayPal About to Go Bankrupt? – The Daily Sceptic 

  • Mosquito drone, drone nesting, warflying, packet perching, cloudstrike, net shelling.
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 17,2022
  • US still holds many of the global patents used in solar panels (developed by Bell in the 1950s). Chinese government subsidized their tech manufacturers in order to out-compete US in price.
  • A semi factory costs $15 - 30b to construct.

    They must be build low (below surface) and kept dust-free.



  • High end semis: Taiwan, Korea, Japan, US. All are designed in US, Japan, etc.

    Mid-range (aerospace, automotive, thermostat control): Malaysia, Thailand.

    New restrictions mean China can't import these without a special dispensation. China can't anymore buy the tools to make the high-grade (so they never reach that level). Method: requiring export licenses to send semis to China. Biden is using the Foreign Direct Product Rule (first used under Trump versus Huawei. ... Chinese plans for technological self-sufficiency.

    Lower-range (watch, IOT, calculator): Chinese made.

    China might be melon-scooped out of the semi business, said Zeihan.

    Zeihan said "We're not at the end of Chinese technological rise." Counter-argument, please.

     
    UK has a new National Security and Investment Act, which it used against a company that sold to a Chinese company (which started selling all it's products to it's new owner), causing the UK to fear a tech transfer from UK to China. (Newport Wafer Fab sold to Wingtech.(
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 03,2022
  • Is gaming the gateway to the Metaverse?
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 18,2022
  • [ML News] Stable Diffusion Takes Over! (Open Source AI Art) - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 16,2022
  • Uber Has Been Hacked - YouTube 

    Access to all sensitive info
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 07,2022

  • Lots of 11, 12, 13 year olds.

    Others say the manufacturers made cars that are too easy to steal.
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 01,2022
  • Nvidia, AMD stocks fall on U.S. orders to cease all sales of key AI chips to China - YouTube 
  • AI Generated Artwork Takes First Place in Art Contest - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 22,2022
  • Tech Talk: Popular apps capable of collecting private information on iPhones | WION - YouTube 
  • NSO co-founder and CEO Shalev Hulio steps down; group facing legal action | WION - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 19,2022
  • Tech Talk: The recent blocking of the VLC Media player | International News | WION - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 10,2022

  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 09,2022

  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 27,2022
  • Rustdesk an 'opensource' (not really) Teamviewer / Anydesk alternative

    It has closed source parts in the software though, so some have already started to say it's not really.

     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 15,2022

  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 25,2022
  • Tesla banned from some places in China

    Upcoming CCP meeting and they're banned from the island for 2 months. When Xi visits some places, they're also banned. Government locations (like military) Teslas can't enter. Government workers (some?) aren't permitted to drive in Teslas.

    Reason: National Security
  • A Google engineer stated that Lamda (chatbot) was sentient

    It was in headlines all over. Google I think put him on suspension.

    It didn't seem from the chat that Lamda WAS sentient to me. He went along with the prompts of the engineer and said he was sentient and elaborated. Mental Outlaw pointed out that the engineer didn't challenge the chatbot on the question, and supposed that if the engineer had been like, "You're not sentient you're an AI" the chatbot would have gone along with that and agreed (not that a chatbot would definitely even know if it WAS sentient or not, and not that a chatbot can't be sentient just because it's also a bot).

    The question, though, is if AI is sentient, must we then treat it differently, ie as we would any sentient being? How can we know if an AI IS sentient?

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 23,2022
  • Apple's Airtag technology backfires with incidents of murder and stalking being reported | WION - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 19,2022

  • With a device that captures the data sent from a keyless fob to a car. If there's a pushbutton start, they can also start the vehicle.

    Owners are advised to keep their fobs in tin cans or special devices to prevent signals (which doesn't, however, protect while the owner is actually using the device).
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 18,2022
  • Australian scientist researching soft coral bleaching

    If you try to protect everything, you run out of resources (money, people). So you need to know specifically which species you need to protect, and which species will be fine nomatter what we do.

    They blend the coral, then use a centrifuge to separate the animal cells from the proteins. Then they can see how much protein, algae, chlorophyll are in the coral.

  • Report: TikTok leak suggests users data not private | International News | English News | WION - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 08,2022
  • UK bought order of drones from Chinese company DJI, first public purchase since US blacklisted the company for sales in the US in 2020 (US said the company posed a potential national security threat)

    15k distance range. 55min use. Temperatures -20 to plus 50.

     
  • May, 2022
  • May 31,2022
  • This Is The Worst Microsoft Office Virus I've Ever Seen - YouTube 
  • May, 2022
  • May 24,2022
  • Bye bye, DuckDuckGo


    'Overall' versus 'ultimately' in language hints.

    Currently, Brave is moving to the best search engine (?and browser?), but quantity is the solution in any marketplace.
     
  • May, 2022
  • May 12,2022

  • May, 2022
  • May 11,2022
  • Costa Rican government received a malware attack and declared a State of Emergency

    ... disrupting tax collection and exposing citizen data.

  • May, 2022
  • May 08,2022




  • #371 RISC-V: How much is open source? Featuring the new ESP32-C3 - YouTube

    His guess is that RISC-V will be successful because it's seen as RISC-V against ARM (monopoly), just as ARM succeeded against INTEL/HP in IoT etc in the 90s. A non-closedSource chip is good for those who want to build their products on top of the chip level.

    The RISC-V foundation recently moved to Switzerland (to be more secure or something).


     
    WP, Seagate, Huawei and Microchip (Arduino manufacturer) all are customers of ARM and don't like their monopoly.



  •  

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 28,2022
  • DALL-E


    A side-effect of all the DALL-2 posts is you can see who on Twitter works at @OpenAI

     
  • Twitter employees are all a-twitter, talking about quitting

    Maybe illustrative of something maybe not expected. That it's not just the board of directors responsible for a malfunctioning (or just biased) organization, but, especially after years of use, the users and the workers. It might not be so easy to change and make it inclusive of those same people plus the people who had been excluded by them.
     

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 27,2022
  • Democrat Howard Dean left Twitter

    Jameela Jamil (actress and feminist) left.

    NYT colomnist Charles Blow left.
     
  • Dorsey tweet:

     
  • Musk making some statements in favor of free speech that seem sort of antagonistic to liberals (woke etc)

    Is this the best plan to keep an inclusive, pluralistic platform?

    #Musk #Twitter
  • Big follower number changes day after Musk bought Twitter

    Obama down 300k, Katy Perry down 200k. A Republican congresswoman and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil went up 100k followers.

    They said this was caused by organic changes (left wingers leaving platform, right wingers joining).

     

  • Only use Snap?
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 25,2022
  • Musk bought Twitter

    I didn't create a new Twitter account. From his first tweet, I didn't feel pulled back for any reason or anything.

    Someone wrote: "I’m not worried about the “rich guy who owns #Tesla now owns @Twitter. But I am at least slightly concerned that the guy who owns @neuralink and founded @OpenAI now owns the information graph on 300+ million users."

    Perhaps this will shake up social media though, which has been stagnant and widely hated (while being enjoyed) for years and years. We haven't seen any new activity, types of social media, companies, stances toward users and rights, we've just seen new more potent attention-retaining algos like Snapchat and TikTocks viral video streams.

    He bought it for $44b (a value of $54.20 per share).

    Analyists have said there is no downside to his investment, since the Board has done basically nothing since the 2013 IPO, and unlimited upside.

    That he'll attract lots of talent to fix the problems, since everyone wants to work for Musk.

    He has said that he wants the most extreme right and extreme left to both be equally unhappy on the platform. That moderates might want to come back.

    People don't think Musk will want to be CEO. He has a lot of suits to chose from in his other companies, competent people who will just never become CEO where they are.

    Some are saying this will be bad for the Woke movement / people.

    Several social media personalities, celebs, athletes expressed they were happy because they'd been shadowbanned or wanted more free speech.

    Josh Brown, who left Twitter even though he had a million followers, commented saying big celebrities who've left (Kardashians) aren't coming back. There's no way to bring them back. The bigger your account get the more the experience isn't good. Who wants to open up the app in the morning and see 50 negative things said about them? Some people will stay, people who have very thick skins or basically invite controversy.

    Someone tweeted, and Bezos resplied to it, that China may have gained leverage over public discussion, since it can withhold something Tesla needs unless Musk does what it wants on Twitter.

    Some have said Don't fool yourself he did it because he sees sure financial gain. This seems unlikely to me. But also reasonable. Some have talked recently about what will happen when Republicans retake the US government. It might happen in 2 years, or in 6, but sometime it will happen. After Biden was elected and Trump was still in office, most BigTech social media, including Twitter, banned President Trump and other Republicans. What do you think will happen to those companies when a Republican is in office again? The actions taken against SM will be at least in name taken for 'freedom of speech.'

    Musk may expect this will happen in 2 years, given the unpopularity of Biden. Also, this year is midterms (in November), when all the House faces reelections for their 2-year terms, and lots of the senators. The uncertainty of a midterm year traditionally has a downward effect on markets.

    Stock went up 6%. Price per share now is $52.87.


    His first tweet after buying it, and a Bezos tweet a little later.



     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 20,2022



  • You can import your Google Calendar info with like 3 clicks, reportedly. It's called 'easy switch.'

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 18,2022
  • Air Support in a Backpack: The Switchblade - YouTube 
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 16,2022

  • There's like 10 of them.
  • Why should I use Trisquel instead of one of the better-known distributions? | Trisquel GNU/Linux



    Triskel OS for Linux. It is 'GNU Linux' Richard Stalman style FOSS-only (everything). No proprietary drivers. No proprietary codex (multimedia things might not work). Really for the free software crowd, not for people who spent a ton on expensive graphics card etc and want the most powerful computer.

    32 bit is called trisquel_9.0.2_i686.iso because they stopped supporting 32 bit with Trisquel 10. Old versions are at us.archive.trisquel.info/iso/
     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 15,2022
  • Pulling water from the air with hydropanels - YouTube 
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 07,2022

  • 200k cameras in Moscow can identify protesters. Also in Ukraine to identify people killed in the war to tell their families.

    There's no control over false positives.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 14,2022
  • Samsung hack released to public

    ... including Samsung source code, which includes the bootloader, so unlocked Samsungs might start really becoming a thing.

    Hack by Lapsus$, who also recently did a large NVIDIA hack.

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 11,2022
  • Founder of DuckDuckGo is 'sickened by ... Ukraine' and is going to start censoring the search engine

    ... Mental Outlaw called this a 'dark day' for the company.

    He tweeted that DDG was going to start downranking disinformation about Russia.

    World, you have yet another new arbiter of truth.

    Neutrality or political in information? This is an information search engine.

    In 2019 the DDG twitter account bragged about how they, unlike the other search engines, had unbiased search results.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 03,2022
  • Russian vehicles don't seem to be using GPS

  • Ukraine using Turkish (NATO ally) drones against vehicles in Russian convoy


  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 01,2022
  • SimpleLogin

    This service allows you to create multiple email addresses, and they all can forward to your main email inbox. So you can sign up for a newsletter, and then when they start spamming you you can delete that email. They don't have your actual address.
     
  • Sengfor used by companies to monitor employees and provide company with a score for employees that they might quit
  • Google location accuracy 3 feet, Facebook 60-90 feet, Snapchat 15 feet

    Which are worse for privacy then Apple, according to a recent report, but Apple has a flaw too where iCloud backups compromise users (because passwords are also backed up there), and local backups is a suggested way to deal with this
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 28,2022
  • Musk says his Starlink internet service up and running in Ukraine

    ... after the Ukraine govt contacted him and asked.

    It had been planned to happen in 2023.

    You need a dish and router to connect, though.

    It's been called by some commentators "a perfect situation for this."

    Not an individual level solution, but one that can be controlled by governments, apparently. Also one that Ukraine's government would be indebted for getting.

     
  • Some Western MSM is reporting that hackers (Anonymous) is going after Russia

    Not confirmed or anything.

    People also say it's likely Russian hackers will target the West.

  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 21,2022
  • iFixit

    A website that has kits for repairing various consumer devices.

  • Framework laptops

    Modular laptops, part of the effort by some non-mainstream companies to make laptops as good as the ones from 2010.

    The company recently announced they'll be opensourcing their firmware, specifically the code for the embedded controller (power, fans, voltage).

    It still doesn't have the ability to install your own BIOS. Many netizens are working on it.

    Two other companies doing something like this: System76 and Purism.

    Framework | The Framework Laptop is now in stock!  
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 18,2021
  • "Phone numbers suck" - Techlore guy

    "They're hard to get compared to something like email. They're expensive. Most people only get one. And these issues just make them a very unique datapoint. A phone number is one of the most invasive data points used against us by companies."

    A new thing is eSIMs. A real phone number, not a virtual number like VOIP.

    No outbound calls though.

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 09,2021
  • CryptoMines/Eternal coin crash from $700 to $4 in a few days

    The devs issued a manifesto:

    "... the main problem is that NFTs have no additional cost or wear and tear causing an over-population of these assets and thus reaching a point where some investors do not have the need to continue re-investing.

    "This same re-investment effect is necessary in order to continue with a healthy and collaborative environment of a P2E game as there must be movement of investment, reinvestment, and new revenue to maintain a sustainable ecosystem over time or directly more longevity, CryptoMines at its peak managed to make refill its reward pool with more than 1.2million Mints per day, after the fall, we started to see numbers hovering around 50k and even less mints per day, accumulating a debt due to lack of trust and re-investment in the game."


     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 07,2021
  • Elon discusses the difficulties involved in building the new, larger reusable rocket


  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 06,2021

  •  
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 15,2021
  • Throwing things into space

    ... Throwing (yeeting) rockets at about mach1 using electric motors to spin the propelling launcher's 100m rotating arm at 450rpm (that rotation speed is around 2km per second, about the same as a SpaceX Falcon 9 second stage when it performs stage separation). The chamber is evacuated, so they cover the top of it with a thin membrane which the projectile just breaks when it shoots through it. It launches at around 10g apparently.


    The disk with ejection barrel pictured below is about the length of the statue of liberty. They built and did a launch I think, but I don't think their full-scale version is built (which I think might be the image below).

    The company is Spinlaunch.

    Rockets use a lot of fuel just to get from earth to space.



     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 08,2021
  • Israeli Blue Wolf

    WP reported this.

    It's facial recog system trained on a huge database of images acquired by Israeli army soldiers on smartphones, to target people for detension.
  • Palestinian activists hacked with Pegasus

    "It's a strong feeling to have your privacy violated," said one man. "Even the simplest of things. My wife couldn't sleep for three days after finding out, being extremely worried. Our privacy was violated as a family. Our children, their pictures. Our conversations with family and friends."

    Pegasus is sold to govts around the world by NSO (Israeli company), under license from Israel's MOD.

    Pegasus is supposed to be blocked from use on Israeli and Palestinian phones.

    NSO commented "We cannot confirm or deny the identity of our government customers. ... NSO Group does not operate the products itself. The company licenses approved government agencies to do so."

    Last month, 3 days after the investigation into suspected phone hacking began, Israel designated all 6 organizations as terror groups, accusing them of funneling money to the PLF and other things.

    Then the Israeli army gave itself the power to shut down offices, confiscate money, and make arrests.

    Last week, the US blacklisted NSO.

     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 02,2021
  • SKorea govt provided 170m facial images of national and international travelers without consent

    We're talking about the face photos they take during the immigration process.

    They gave it to a private sector company to develop an AI screening tool.

     
  • Data collected on 50m Moscow drivers for sale for $800

    From a hacker.

    Full names, dates of birth, phone numbers, vehicle ID numbers, licence plate numbers, and car brand model and registration date.

    It's confirmed legit.
     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 30,2021
  • Lots of people are talking about autonomous warfare used in Nagorno-Karabakh war

    A war which lasted only a couple weeks (27 Sept – 10 Nov 2020) before Armenia, harassed by Azerbaijan's use of drones, surrendered. Azerbaijan then posted lots of high-res videos of their attacks and showed them in the town square.

    They autonomized their jets and when Armenia fired on them, they identified the Armenian forces and attacked them. Instead of firing weapons, the drones just flew into them.

    Loitering munition (drones) has no single effective countermeasure. Things that are used together to thwart them are radio jammers, EMP, laser defense, acoustic detection, net traps and kinetic power (bullets). This is all limited, however, by ambient stuff like traffic.

    Drones were also used in 2019 to attack SA's oil refineries that flew below radar. SA couldn't do anything and had to shut down half their production.

    They were also used against a Russian base during the Syrian 'civil' war in 2018, and no one claimed responsibility. Russia said the US did it, but it could have been anyone. They used plywood drones.

    People have drawn lines of comparison with hackers, who also attack from a safe location, anonymously, and without identifying themselves.

    Miniature drones, Autopilot and image recognition software open source and developed by sellers.

    Are we even going to be able to have any drones allowed to exist in the air?

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 28,2021
  • Musk reveals plans with Varda for first space factory

    $3.2b pricetag.

    Benefit: microgravity. For manufacturing 3d printed organs, special-purpose semiconductors.

    2023 plan: 3 months of Varda's spacecraft being up there, then a reentry capsule will return the finished product. 2024 two more factories to go up.

    Varda is also building it's own capsule to return up to 100kg from space. They're focusing of frequency of reentry because it shows how they can return value after sending raw materials to space.

    Varda hasn't said what it will produce up there (and might not yet know because they might not have a contract). Pharmaceuticals and fiberoptic were mentioned.

     
  • US gov says China did a hypersonic missile test into space

    They travel 5x the speed of sound and can't be tracked by radar.

    China responded saying US was basically lying.

    Russia and NKorea have said they've fired this type of weapon.

    US says it's working on the technology.
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 17,2021
  • Moscow uses facial recognition for payments on the metro

    Ostensibly they are using it to give passengers the option to pay that way. Their face is tied to their credit card in this optional system, and they can pay for their trips that way.

    15k people volunteered to test the system before it was made public this week.

    To do facepay, you have to stop in front of the camera for a second before entering the train gates.

    Moscow has over 200k facial recognition cameras.They were used earlier this year in the arrests of demonstrators at opposition protests.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 13,2021
  • Pentagon's first chief software officer resigned last month saying China will dominate US in AI and bioengineering tech

    Nicholas Chaillan, age 37. He said he thought it was already a done deal and that the US would have no competitive chance in 15-20 years.

    He said many government departments in the US were run by people who weren't really experts in that field. He also criticized Google-like tech giants for not wanting to cooperate with the USgov over ethics issues.

    US SoD wants a $1.5b investment to develop AI faster.



  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 12,2021
  • Nickel-based cathode has higher energy density for longrange vehicles, for Tesla

    Standard-range vehicles and stationary storage will move to iron-based battery cathodes, Musk thinks. He thinks the majority of batteries in the future will be iron-based, so there won't be any shortage. It's just a question of making the equipment to process the iron into a cell and then into a pack.

    Nickel isn't rare, but there's about 10-100x as much iron as nickel.

    (Cobalt-based for phones and laptops.)

    Lithium makes up about 2% or so of a battery cell, but lithium is also not rare (basically its a salt, and there's a little bit everywhere).

     
  • "If Nicolai Tesla applied at Tesla today, would we even give him an interview?"

    Musk said this was something he thought about sometimes, when considering hiring engineers, or just good people to work at his company. He said he wasn't sure they would.

    "Just three bullet points. Like evidence of exceptional ability. And if you say 'Wow' if you read those three bullet points, that should be the approach." He said this about looking for people.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 30,2021
  • AI is second-biggest threat to civilization, said Elon Musk, arguably the world's biggest robot maker

    We should have a regulatory agency to oversee AI safety, he said, but there isn't anything like that right now and that type of thing takes governments years to do.

    He said he didn't really know what to do about it.

    (His biggest threat was population collapse.)

     
  • WIll general purpose blockchains that have greater utility eclipse finished products like bitcoin?

    This question was posed by an Indian-looking fellow at Codecon (who didn't give his name), to Elon Musk.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 28,2021
  • Amazon introduces a spy device on wheels for people's homes

    ... called Astro. It's Alexa on wheels. It's designed to look small and cute.

    It can play movies, do video calls.

     
  • Turkey Technofest

    Main things: killer drones, fighter jets, EVs, guns, helicopters, biotech, AI.

    At the podium, the chief tech officer said they were holding the festival 'in order not to be condemned to a world constructed by brutal capitalist technology monopolies, we must fill our sails with our own wind of transformation, and the direction of our civilizational values." Turkey's shifting away from importing tech.

    The initiative should generate a lot of cash for Turkey. Last year, Turkey's defence tech got $2.3b. People suggested if Turkey continues along its current tech development path, it might become home to the largest aerospace festival, and maybe even a world leader in the sector.
     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 26,2021
  • Cloning camels

    ... in desert Middle East continues to be popular. Cloning biofactories can't keep up with demand. People are making exact copies of their favorite camels.

    Camels are used for races and beauty pageants there.

    The first one was cloned in 2009.

  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 12,2021
  • Protonmail logged IP of French activist upon order by Swiss authorities

    ... his alleged crime was truancy. He was a member of Youth for Climate Action in Paris, and they were using Protonmail to schedule and organize an event where they would skip school to go and protest, reported Mental Outlaw on YT. The youths were going to protest governments and corporations they believed were causing climate change.

    Have you ever skipped school?

    Protonmail does not have any userside/clientside encryption. Tor or mixnet would have put something between the user and Protonmail.

    Mental Outlaw pointed out that although Protonmail may not comply with a request from an outside state (France, US, whoever), they could just go through Switzerland.

    Protonmail updated it's privacy policy to more accurately reflect what they do.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 11,2021
  • Reportedly, US drone strike killed an aid worker and children

    According to NYT.

    DailymailUK: 'The drone strike that the Pentagon claimed killed an ISIS-K suicide bomber in Kabul actually targeted an aid worker who had filled his car with water jugs, rather than explosives, according to a shocking new report.'

    According to the family, 10 were killed in that car, although the Pentagon says 3 civilians.

    Congresswoman Ilhan Omar  wrote of a recent drone strike (I don't know if it was the same strike):

    "This is the lastest in 20 years of innocent lives taken and children orphaned in Afghanistan and covert drone warfare around the world. Impunity for these attacks continues to create a neverending cycle of violence and retribution. Where should these victims go to seek justice?"


    ‘Imminent Threat’ or Aid Worker: Did a U.S. Drone Strike in Afghanistan Kill the Wrong Person? - The New York Times  
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 03,2021
  • US collected biometric records on 5m Afghanis

    ... and now those people are at risk due to this very thing, according to some like Margaret Hu, who calls it a lesson in the life-and-death consequences of data collection.

    The US left this data behind, along with iris scans and names.

    Consortium News commented that the US is going after Assange in part because (they allege) Assange endangered lives by revealing names of informants (when he was actually redacting them).


    The Taliban reportedly have control of US biometric devices – a lesson in life-and-death consequences of data privacy  
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 31,2021
  • IUDs. Women are pulling them out themselves to not pay removal fee

    IUD insertion is free but removal can cost hundreds, so women are just removing them themselves and posting videos on social media.

  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 23,2021
  • Daniel Hale awarded Sam Adams for drone info

    Of 200 people killed in a 1-year period in 2012-2013 US special forces airstrikes (using drone) only 35 were the intended targets.

    The innocent civilians were routinely categorized as 'enemies killed in action.'

    Hale was a defense contractor in 2013 when his conscience caused him to release classified documents to the press. Hale was charged under the Espionage Act and received 45 months.

    In a hand-written letter to Judge Liam O’Grady Hale explained that the drone attacks and the war in Afghanistan had “little to do with preventing terror from coming into the United States and a lot more to do with protecting the profits of weapons manufacturers and so-called defense contractors.”

    Hale also cited a 1995 statement by former U.S. Navy Admiral Gene LaRocque: “We now kill people without ever seeing them. Now you push a button thousands of miles away … since it’s all done by remote control, there’s no remorse … and then we come home in triumph.”

    Sam Adams Associates for Integrity in Intelligence  
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 19,2021
  • China's sponge cities

    Instead of building barricades to water, they want to absorb and release the water when needed.

    How it's done usually is combining grey infrastructure like drainage and water treatment with green spaces.

    People also like to go to the green spaces to use them. Trees, elevated walkways, etc.

    They also use some bioswales, which are several KMs in length now. They're grooves water can seep into and go down into the earth rather than enter drainage systems.

    They also use permeable road surfaces. Polyurethane binders combined with gravel or stones let water through.

    These are all designed to deal with regular heavy rain, and aren't as useful for extreme weather events.

    The US and Russia have also done sponge city stuff, but not to the same level as China.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 17,2021
  • Indonesian 'rainwater communities'

    There isn't access to clean water in many places, and there are sometimes long droughts, and drinking rainwater isn't appealing due to cleanliness concerns, although people use it.

    Indonesians were (many still are, of course) buying their drinking water. Clean water sales long ago passed into the hands of private companies.The companies own the clean water springs.

    Many communities there now use electrolysis, passing a current through the water. It kills microbes and increases the PH value.

    Credit for this is attributed to a pastor of one of the communities, Romo Kirjito, who worked for years in his lab trying solutions to get everyone clean water for free (or close to free).



     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 16,2021
  • Daniel Hale, who leaked information on US drone warfare, sentenced to 45 months in prison for violating Espionage Act

    “I believe that it is wrong to kill, but it is especially wrong to kill the defenseless,” Hale told the court. He said he shared what “was necessary to dispel the lie that drone warfare keeps us safe, that our lives are worth more than theirs.”

    “Hale did not in any way contribute to the public debate about how we fight wars. All he did was endanger the people who are doing the fighting.” This was said by Assistant U.S. Attorney Gordon Kromberg.

    “You are not being prosecuted for speaking out about the drone program killing innocent people. You could have been a whistleblower ... without taking any of these documents." This was said by U.S. District Judge Liam O’Grady.

    The defense said it was a public service. WP reported: 'The documents included a report finding that reliance on deadly attacks was undermining intelligence gathering. During one five-month stretch of an operation in Afghanistan, the documents revealed, nearly 90 percent of the people killed were not the intended targets.'



    Intercept: Leaked military documents expose the inner workings of Obama’s drone wars  
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 13,2021
  • Russia using cloud seeding to create rain

    ... it's a dry hot summer.

    Here's what the canisters look like. They're filled with silver iodide which provides a base for the formation of snow and rain inside clouds. Planes go on missions to seek out clouds and shoot them with the canisters.




     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 31,2021
  • Agroforestry

    ... such as 'alley cropping.' It means more effort and a reduced farming space (the trees take maybe 10%), but rows of fast-growing easy-to-manage poplars divide some German farms now.

    The trees 'sequester' co2 (and therefore mitigate climate change). Hens enjoy the forest floor, and eat the greenery there, which reduces co2 because most of the co2 associated with farming chickens comes from producing the feed (partially, because some of their feed is still bought). The hens trample fallen leaves and the soil regains nutrients. The roots of the tree also improve soil quality, and trees form a wind break so soil isn't blown away, and anchor moisture into the ground, and (with the shrubbery planted beside the strips of trees, like multiyear wildflower) provide a habitat for beneficial insects like hoverflies, dung beetles, and wild bees, and worms and fungi.

    So three things--chicken farming, producing feed for them, and having trees to convert co2 to oxygen (and glucose) are now done in one location, so less land needed and less transportation costs.

    However, a lot of the trees are eventually chopped down to 20cm once they are fully grown, and burnt as firewood, rereleasing 70% of their co2, which mitigates their mitigation of co2.

    The first year after planting trees on a farm field takes more work, because you have to tend the area around the tree shoots so they can live.

    There are some farming areas where the ground is not thick enough to really have large trees, though, and watery rice fields and hilly regions also aren't always idea for trees.

    Familiar facts: 25% of greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture. Monoculture sucks nutrients out of soil. Farms take up a lot of land. Using lots of trees on farms was historically practiced everywhere but went out of fashion in the early 20th century, when it was seen as inefficient (tractors and machinery played a part).

    #tab-dashboard-02">EEA: Greenhouse gas emissions by aggregated sector

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 19,2021
  • Pegasus spyware, capable of switching on cameras and mics, linked to list of 50,000 phone numbers

    ... and targeting journalists in 50 countries, targeted by 10 states.

    One Mexican journalist was on the list and 2 months later was killed, although journalists are frequently killed in Mexico.

    The spyware is reportedly from Israeli company NSO Group (although there are many other similar companies). The software is sold to governments (only those who have been 'approved by Israel') to deal with 'terrorism' and 'criminals,' but is used by governments against their own civil society (journalists, activists, dissidents, lawyers) and heads of state.

    The software is almost undetectable on your phone. It is not the kind of malware that you have to stupidly click something to have it install (spearfishing). It uses a zero-click exploit, using some app on your phone. It's not known which apps, but one is WhatsApp: it infected phones using a WhatsApp call and you don't even have to pick up the call. It has root access to the device (can do anything, including see all keystrokes, use camera, mic, contacts, archives, location). It might be stored in a temp file in RAM instead of on the hard drive.

    The only way to get rid of it currently is get a new phone and new SIM.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 11,2021
  • Audacity turns bad

    ... according to everyone in the privacy forums and bloggers, because it updated it's policies to tell users it would be collecting unknown data from them and using it in unknown ways.

    Audacity was bought by Muse Group (which owns Musescore and Ultimate Guitar). The new owners pledged to keep it 'free and opensource' but it seems they might have found another way to monetize their investment here).

    One of the things people were most excited to point out about the new policy for Audacity was they added a 'only use if over age 13' type line, because under GDPR 'The age threshold for obtaining parental consent is established by each EU Member State and can be between 13 and 16 years.'

    Many people just said they wouldn't use it anymore and deleted it from their machines. Other options offered by the community were to fork or use a previous version, or to limit port access.


     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 06,2021
  • Virtual influencers

    On social media, the use of these characters is a bit of a thing. They're CG attractive women (usually) used to promote and sell products.

    Some have lots of followers. Some are modelling agencies offering a roster of character options. They've been used by some big fashion brands.

    About 40% of people reportedly follow a virtual influencer without knowing it.

  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 27,2021
  • China sent a crew to its new space station

    China isn't a participant in the ISS, largely because of the US's objections to China's secrecy and military focus in space. They built their own space module, called Tianhe III (their first two space stations were more short term), or Heavenly Harmony, which launched last April.

    China used a Shenzhou-12 spaceship launched by a Long March-2F Y12 rocket from the Gobi Desert to transport a three-man crew of science-minded military pilots (2 vets, one new pilot) to Tianhe.

     
  • A fungus, Mycelium, is being talked about as an alternative to plastic to make things

    Basically, they make a mold and then fill it with hemp or woodchips (or some other agricultural waste). This is called the 'foam.' Mycelium is also placed in the molds. The molds are then placed on racks with temperature, humidity, co2 and airflow controlled.

    The Mycelium fibers grow so they fill the mold. Then the molds are heat treated to kill the Mycelium.

    Some people are also making other products such as bacon and other artificial meats, a leather alternative, insulation, and fabrics out of Mycelium.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 14,2021
  • Hackers don't want Bitcoin, some now like Monero

    ... which hides virtually all transaction details, and is considered a privacy token. With Monero, it's more difficult to see who the sender and recipient are, and transaction amount. 90-95% of ransoms are still paid in Bitcoin, but Monero is increasingly popular.

    Bitcoin is public ledger and stores all transaction history. It was headline news this month how the FBI recovered payments made with Bitcoin to the Colonial Pipeline hackers.

    Difficulties with using Monero include that many regulated exchanges have chosen not to list it to to regulatory concerns, meaning it's less liquid and can't be cashed out as easily as Bitcoin.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 13,2021
  • Chile starts thermosolar power plant in its superhot desert

    Atacama desert is very hot due to the sunlight it gets.

    The thermosolar plant has thousands of reflectors which move with the sun, reflecting its rays toward a column in the center, in which is water and salt that when heated creates steam.

    It makes 210mW, enough to power 380k homes.

    Chile is looking to close down some of its coal plants.




     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 01,2021
  • EU border wall, sound weapons, AI lie detection

    In order to keep out migrants several EU countries are building border walls (nevermind their negative response to the 2017 Trump proposal), employing sound cannons, and working on an AI lie detection tool.

    Analysts have commented that often these types of tools, implemented for such causes as migrants, are tested out before being turned on the citizens of the countries that built them.

    They also note that the steps will possibly result in more deaths, as the migrants will turn to smugglers and other more dangerous methods of entering Europe.

     
  • First AI drone attacks (without human oversight)

    Reports have it that last year a Turkish quad-copter which was a true set-and-forget weapon, identified targets and opened fire in Libya. The targets were renegades loyal to Khalifa Haftar, reportedly.

    Analysts note that Turkey and other countries perceive themselves to have a competitive advantage by using these tools.

     
  • Danish journalists come forward with US spying report

    Allegedly (so far these are only allegations), in 2013 during the days of Edward Snowden's revelations the Obama government was spying on German and other leaders of US-allied countries, Danish foreign intelligence agency FE signed a deal with the NSA so that the Americans could intercept communications (tap phones and messaging of German and other allied leaders) using their own software following the 911 attacks in 2001.

    Following Snowden's publishing the documents about this activity, a report was created but it was never made public, but now six of the very few people who ever saw it decided to come forward.

    It is expected there will now be pressure to publish it, especially considering Danish and other European individuals were targeted. It is being reported that current US pres Biden was significantly involved in the operation. He was VP from 09-17.

    German, France and other EU states are waiting for better, more certain information before responding publicly.

    Newscasters on several channels reported the story with smiles of bemusement or low-key glee.

    #InternationalRelations #Snowden #journalism
        
  • May, 2021
  • May 17,2021
  • Marines boarding ships with personal jetpacks

    UK's Royal Marines, using the Gravity Jet Suit (1000bhp)


     
  • May, 2021
  • May 01,2021
  • More mysterious 'Havana Syndrome' attacks

    More of these strange attacks have been reported, this time not in Cuba but near the White House.

    When they were first reported in 2017, the U.S. government referred to them as 'targeted attacks' but later started calling them 'health incidents.'

    But recently, two U.S. senators said they were definitely attacks. Canadian diplomats accused the Canadian government of withholding information about three new cases of brain injury among Canadian diplomats who served in Cuba, too.

    The U.S. puts Russia as the most likely perpetrator.

    Last year the National Academy of Science found the weapon to be one that uses 'pulsed microwave energy' to cause brain damage.

    The reported symptoms are vague, including memory loss, nausea, headaches, and loss of balance. The U.S. diplomats reported hearing a strange noise, which was recorded and is publicly available to listen to, in the embassy before the symptoms started.

     

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  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • Mysterious stingray pregnancy leaves many to wonder if shark is father - YouTube
    Parthinogenesis is a theory.
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024
  • Panama Canal drought causes global disruptions - YouTube
    Meanwhile, elsewhere record low temps and rain.
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • This year the warmest on record, perhaps.

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04,2023
  • JAPÓN | Protestas tras el inicio del vertido del agua radioactiva de Fukushima al Pacífico | EL PAÍS - YouTube 

    So what will the argument be when other countries want to do this?

  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 05,2023


  • Not enough water to go around: Colorado River Basin, ravaged by drought, plans for a drier future - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 01,2023
  • Right wales on brink of extinction. 300+ said to be left, with only 11 offspring this year. Fishing nets. 


    Goatscaping. They bring a truckload of goats to a fenced in area and let them clear it of all green.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 05,2023
  • UN secures landmark deal to protect the world's oceans | DW News - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 22,2022
  • Gravitas: China's largest river Yangtze has dried up - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 09,2022
  • Drought threatens major (shipping) rivers in Europe, DW reported

    #Europe
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 28,2022
  • DALL-E makes VW Beetles similar to the Beetle

    "Is there something about the design of the Beetle that even variations look similar?" asked Bakz T. Future.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 19,2021
  • Record visitors to national parks

    Overcrowded. Waits of up to 4 hours to enter certain trails.

  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 14,2021
  • Mammoths again?

    ... they went extinct 4000 years ago. A biosci firm, Colossal, plans to use crispr to put them in the arctic again to help counter the effects of the climate crisis by reverting the ecosystem there.

    They'll insert DNA sequences collected over the years into the genome of Asian elephants (99.6% DNA similarity).

    They raised $15m.

    Other scientists doubted an ecosystem could be redone, especially by just putting some mammoths in it again.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 29,2021
  • Unknown cause for young birds dying in the US

    The species that seem most affected are common grackle, American robin, bluejay and starling, reportedly.

    Some have their eyes all crusty, others exhibit neurological issues and fall over or have paralysis.

    Experts are performing animal autopsies and tests. It may take several weeks or more to get information.



     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 22,2021
  • Floods: Germany had massive floods causing over 100 deaths, and China's Henan had 8 months worth of rain in a day

    China reported 33 deaths. Roughly $200m in damage, expected that estimate will be increased.

    Media censorship in China again highlighted. Government-controlled media, no critical media to investigate and ask critical questions. Social media accounts that ask about role of authorities get deleted and censored.

    One question is whether local authorities warned citizens soon enough. A counterargument is that they had no reason to expect that much rain (once in a lifetime situation).

    Chinese people's political double-standards in a strictly-controlled information environment also at issue: state media covered German floods, Siberian forest fires, Canada heat wave, and drew climate change conclusions. But when something similar happens in China they focus on it as being just an exceptional event.
    #Censorship
     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 06,2021
  • Saiga antelopes almost wiped out 6 years ago, then there was a baby boom

    Pastruela killed 90% of the species in 2015. Scientists have 2 theories. One, the bacteria, already in the animal (it exists in healthy Saigas at least sometimes, scientists have found), is triggered to grow by something and it kills them. Two, there is an amoeba in the environment that is infected by the bacteria, and then in the wet season the bacteria becomes active, and meanwhile it is somehow consumed when the antelopes grazes.

    Saiga populations recover quickly, though. Females at age 1 have one calf. Older females have twins, and the most mature, larger females can have 3.

    The current population is estimated at 250,000, just like before the endemic on the Kazakh steppe. People in 2015 worried they might become extinct.

    They are now returning to the same grazing ground, though. Experts have little doubt the same plight will affect them again.

    They also face a possible new highway through their migration ground, which would connect the Caspian Sea (at Aktau) and the Nur-Sultan (the capital city).



     

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  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 01,2024
  • Fired Mason Jar Cafe waitress speaks out - YouTube
    Employees couldn't be satisfied with how the tip was divided.

  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • Justin Trudeau SUED for freezing bank accounts during Freedom Convoy! - YouTube


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 02,2024
  • Man arrives without ticket at LAX, leaving officials perplexed - YouTube


  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 11,2021
  • Branson flew to the edge of space on Virgin Galactic, then Bezos

    He said it was the 'experience of a lifetime.'

    282k feet (53 miles).

    About 800k people watched the largest of the YT livestreams, it looked like.

    About a week later Bezos flew in his Blue Origin craft to 350k feet (66 miles).

    NASA's designated Earth-Space boundary is 50 miles, but the Karman line is 100km.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 16,2021
  • Christiano Ronaldo removed some Coke bottles

    ... that were placed in front of him before a press conference, and just kept the water bottle, held it up and said, "Aqua."

    Latin American newspapers ran headlines saying the move cost Coke $4b dollars because after the move the stock moved down over a percent (which is not uncommon in a days trading).

    Ronaldo has before commented he tries to get his children to not drink soda or eat chips.

    A day later, Paul Pogba moved a (non-alcoholic but appearance-wise identical) Heiniken beer that had been placed in front of him at a press conference, but left the coke bottles and water.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 15,2021
  • DRC using dance for sexual violence victims

    Victims of rape are being treated holistically with dance classes in the DRC. The treatment is considered to include psychological, social, and physical elements.
     
  • May, 2021
  • May 01,2021
  • Pakistani Camel Library

    A former wood-hauler camel is now employed traveling around some villages of Balochistan province with books strapped to its sides sides. Children run to the camel and clamor for books when the camel arrives.

    Balochistan has only 40% literacy, the lowest in Pakistan.

    Raheema Jalal is the woman behind the project, working with NGOs. The Camel Library Project is looking for further support in order to expand to other villages.



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  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 13,2023

  • Macro trends supposed to continue.
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 18,2023
  • An identification layer

    Musk recently talked about this part of Twitter, that people would 'compete for truth' (to present the most truthful information). And that you would be able to see if a Twitter account was actually owned by an entity, so if someone reports an entity said or did something, people can easily go to their Twitter to see if if that's fact.
     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 08,2022
  • FTC will likely sue to block Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard, says Aaron Glick - YouTube 

  • Over the past weeks, investor analysis have commented on how Apple as a corporation is the most exposed to China, China supply chains, China markets, of the tech companies.

    Zeihan I think noted Apple is like 6 or 8 years away from a restructured supply chain etc, if they were to do that.
     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 27,2022

  • To be a private company now (was public and subject to the market).

    He said he bought it not to make money but because a digital town square was useful to us.

     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 12,2022
  • YouTube Has Blacklisted My Channel - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 22,2022
  • David Beckham handed his Insta account (70m followers) over to a Kharkiv doctor, a child anesthesiologist

    The doctor is named Irina (last name not provided).
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 02,2021
  • This week, following court docs, people are seeing how much the tech giants are helping each other behind the scenes

    Highlighted by the Google-Facebook deal called JediBlue. Anti-trust.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 21,2021
  • Trump signs deal to publish Truth Social

    A social media platform to combat the tyranny of Big Tech.

    He was banned from Twitter and Facebook after the Capitol Riots / "Insurrection".

    He signed with Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC). It's stock was up like 350% for the day, and up another 40% by 8pm.

     
  • "I'm not willing to say that all corporations are autocratic, but certainly they do not have their own rule of law or social contract with the citizens.

    "Increasingly the US is becomming a hybrid system, where if you exist in the physical world you have laws that apply to you and you have a judiciary that metes out whether it's being broken by the US government that you vote for, or vote against, but you're part of that process.

    "Where in the digital world, the virtual world, which is increasingly a large part of the economy, increasingly a large part of our social interactions, where we get information from, increasingly a large part even of our personal and national security, actually the government doesn't exercise sovereignty over that space. These corporations do. And the rules that the corporations apply to those virtual spaces are determined by those coprations. ... a radically different place than we've ever existed before, either as citizens or consumers." - Ian Bremmer



     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 06,2021
  • Bigtech's tobacco moment?

    This parallel has been drawn (Sen. Blumenthal)
     
    Because of the company research documents. Tobacco's docs showed they knew about the health affects. Facebook also.
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 05,2021
  • Facebook rough week

    They had a 'whistleblower' tell news orgs that Facebook knows it's platforms (especially Insta) 'hurt' people by harming their self esteem or self image (girls with body image). The platforms went down for hours that day, causing people to go in droves to other platforms to try to communicate, which brought down the other platforms, too.

    Is there any difference from this Facebook news and what beauty (for both women and men) magazines have always done?
     
    To sensible people this might seem like a non-issue, or at least nothing previously unknown, but the stock is down like 15% from its high.
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 14,2021
  • What is Twitter to do?

    An opposition leader in India posted photos of the parents of a 9-year-old who was reportedly raped. His post and others by other opposition figures were removed and their accounts were suspended. Reportedly, Twitter did this after the National Commission for Protection of Child Rights asked they do so over privacy rules.

    The accounts have been reinstated, reportedly.

    The opposition leader is saying Twitter is biased.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 27,2021
  • Pink Floyd's Roger Waters denies Facebook

    ... at a recent Free Julian Assange meeting. He brought up that FB had asked for use of 'The Wall' for an Instagram ad and his response was 'Fuck you.'


     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 12,2021
  • Nigeria bans Twitter

    After Twitter deleted a tweet from Nigerian president, Muhammadu Buhari that threatened to punish regional secessionists because it violated Twitter's TOS, that government swiftly banned Twitter and within hours the country's internet providers had shut out access.

    The country's TV and radio stations were ordered to delete or deactivate their Twitter accounts by Nigeria's broadcast authority.

    Trump made comments in favor of the move.

    Many Nigerians continue to use Twitter using VPNs to bypass the censorship.

    Nigeria has 201m people, (40m Twitter users) the largest population in Africa, which has 1.2b total.

    Twitter is seen as unique among other social media platforms (which are not currently banned) because by Twitter's nature of being text-focused and short in word limit, it is used more for political speech. It is also quoted more in news articles.

    The issue enrages some Nigerians because they want to be able to freely express themselves (and their discontent with the government). The government there is viewed by many as one of the biggest creators of propaganda or fake news.

    Many Nigerians run businesses at least partially on Twitter, and they are upset because of the loss of investment. Nigerians also believe the government is using the pretext of Twitter's censorship of the president's tweet in order to tighten its control over all internet social media. The government has since announced that all social media platforms have to register within the country.

    I tried to watch a debate by minor authorities in Nigeria but they seem to yell a lot.

     
  • Apr, 2021
  • Apr 30,2021
  • Facebook temporarily blocked anti-Modi posts

    When people tried to post such posts, they received a message: "Keeping our community safe ... Posts with #ResignModi are temporarily hidden here. Some content in those posts goes against our Community Standards."

    Over 12,000 posts calling for the Indian PM's resignation were later reinstated, and Facebook said it was an error.

    Twitter also recently deleted some posts critical of the Indian government after that government issued them a legal request.

    #India #Facebook
     

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  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • The plastic industry knowingly pushed recycling myth for decades, new report finds - YouTube
    For them, it was a way to fend off regulation and to keep selling more plastic.

    China might not have a next step of what to do. They might not know what to do. Except to copy US doing economically, technologically, match military, don't bother doing what US does around the world, run this Western model with single party state, and the West will eventually become economically incapable, and maybe emulate the Chinese model. China needs oppression because it doesn't have a goal it can get people to focus on. A lack of vision. Government officials don't really know what their job is. There's no real agenda.

    So much of the money for Belt and Road (like in Pakistan) just went into nothing or beaurocracy, but it's not even clear who you bribed. China trying to offshore. It's not sure what to invest in in China.
    The greatest benefit so foar of B&R has been easier trade with Europe, which is useless in a great power struggle with the US.
    They didn't have a clearly better investment alternative. Maybe in even better automation. Maybe really trying with a select country like Philippines (a different island from US's).
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 15,2024
  • US using bases in Japan (allowing US to use its jets) was key in wargames playing out scenerios for a Chinese invasion attempt upon Taiwan.

    U.S., other countries removing embassy staff from Haiti as violence worsens | Power & Politics - YouTube


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 11,2024
  • Mass Relocation Of UN Staff From New York To Nairobi Raises Eyebrows - YouTube


  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • Critical documents expected to arrive in mail just vanish - YouTube

    Canadian military accepting less than 1% of permanent residents who apply - YouTube
    #Canada #Immigration

    The Javers Files: Apple Vision Pro in Moscow - YouTube
    It's not even available in UK and other countries where it is allowed by Apple. It does sell for like 50% more though in Russia.
    Parallel import. Apple products have been not sold in Russia by Apple for 2 years, a protest against the Ukraine invasion and war. However, they're still available there to buy.
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024
  • There is some small amount of immigration from Africa to China. China is doing some port businesses in Africa.
    15 or 20m people could sometime migrate to China, maybe as brides.

    Frontline report: US drone strike in Baghdad kills Iran-backed militia leader | BBC News - YouTube
    In the capitol, killing targets. 930pm, 3 explosions. People are out on the street, cafes and restuarants are open. Calls for retaliation. ‘Blood for blood.’ ‘Threat to safety and security in the country.’ ‘Inevitable retaliation.’
    Do US authorities want Iraq to attack Americans in America? and thus provoke Americans to support a serious war against the Middle East?

    War on border Hezbolah/Lebanon is intensifying. Hezbolah is a real army, great intelligence, experience in Syria, not like Hamas.

    ‘That cannot be a license to dehumanize others.’ Blinken trying to get a ceasefire in Gaza, against strong talk by Netanyahu. ‘Gaza is the key to stabilizing the middle east,’ said a journalist.
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024
  • R and Uk are using drones and artillary. No one needs air supremacy, just don't let the other person have it.

    U.S. airstrikes hit Iraq, Syria in retaliation for fatal drone attack in Jordan - YouTube
    85 targets. Residential buildings damaged, 16 people killed. Violating their sovereignty, say the 2 states.
    ‘The beginning of our response.' ‘Our.’

    Nearly half of U.S. cities are seeing population decline, study shows - YouTube
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/98823/

    White House blames deadly attack on U.S. troops in Jordan on Iran-backed group - YouTube
    If you took bets from citizens whether it was a by-the-book-how-to-start-a-war tactical autoattack, or a genuine ‘exactly what the headline says’ attack, what odds would they take? Another survey on how many actually care.
    #Integrity
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 26,2024
  • 97 men for every 100 women, in USA, and in China 104 men for every 100 women, according to Google. Shouldn't we start a massive dating program? However, you should note that its because the oldest demog has more women. if you look at age 30 you might see closer to parity.

    Joe Rogan tells Canada to vote for Pierre Poilievre - YouTube
    Never noticed any interest among top USA voices in Canadian politics before.

    American mercenaries hired by UAE to kill in Yemen | BBC News - YouTube


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • There are Only Four Free Countries Left - YouTube
    Property rights, judicial effectiveness, government integrity, tax burden and fiscal health, these things went down in a lot of Western countries.

    U.S., U.K. launch strikes against Houthis in Yemen - YouTube

    Pakistan launches retaliatory strikes into Iran | BBC News - YouTube
    2 days ago, Iran used ‘specifically targeted’ strikes, landing missiles in a village on the border, ‘targeting anti-Iran groups’.
    Pakistan has now done a similar strike, against ‘terrorists’ who base themsleves in ‘ungoverned spaces inside Iran.' Pakistan said they acted now because they had ‘credible intelligence of impending large scale terrorist activities by these so called Sarmachars.’ #terrorism

    More education, combined with more journalism, would produce lots of Mileis

    5 Iranian Revolutionary Guards killed in Israeli strike on Damascus, state media reports - YouTube
    #Syria
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08,2024
  • China calls for global unity amid Western exodus | DW Business Special - YouTube
    Soft power

    Has Russia actually been winning the war in Ukraine (despite what our media says)? Putin's successful stance against the West in Ukraine, has it made him more influential throughout the global south and BRICS? Man with a plan? - Sacks #Putin

    Will Project Ukriane fall apart this year?

    Is the Global South now more resisting the Collective West? Is the Global South using Russia as a proxy against the West? As a way to dethrone US hegemony all over the world? - Fiona Hill

    Cali went from a $70b surplus to now a $70b deficit.

    Ukraine may only have 20m people in the country now. 10m fled maybe. 500k soldiers have lost their lives.

    Germany econonmy, based on cheap Russian gas, German car economy disrupted by Chinese cars, German costs going up while Chinese costs are going down.


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023
  • New task force aims to combat Red Sea attacks | WGOW Shipping on Live Now Fox - YouTube

    More people renounced US citizenship in the first 3 quarters of last year than the entire year before. (But qualified by pandemic restrictions.)

    China Halts Exports of Some Rare-Earth Processing Technologies - YouTube

    Uzbekistan is a good place to invest, it's now been said. Tamerlane, tourist sights, natural resources. Colombia for natural resources. Indonesia seems to be opening up to trade.

    Texas flying migrants to Chicago now.

    Analyst discusses impact of geopolitics on food security - YouTube
    Black sea region wheat, India restricting movement. India's sugar restrictios have affected Indonesia, Bangledes and SA. More motivation for deglobalizaiton?
    Key staple commodities (small price disruption can cause food insecurity): rice, sugar. Less so for onions.

    Is China driving its economy towards consumption rather than investment?

    Is BRICS (BRICS plus in 2025) a club for talking? or will they do something together. Countries that are opposed to the West and the dollar.

    Mediation. Turkey in Ukraine war. Qatar in Gaza fighting.
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • Zelenski encuentra escaso entusiasmo en el Congreso para la ayuda a Ucrania | EL PAÍS - YouTube

    Guyanese president speaks out after Venezuela makes claim on oil-rich region of his country - YouTube

    Business that China might lose: Mid to high level tech, Thailand. Up and coming assembly turning into a tech player, Vietnam. Sheer mass, Indonesia.

    Argenitina is young, has good land.

    ‘When you invent a better way, you make the whole world richer.’ Bezos

    Medio millón de migrantes han cruzado la peligrosa selva de Darién este año - YouTube

    Yemen Escalates Attacks against Commercial Shipping | Missile Strikes and Seizures - YouTube

    Shippers could face price increases following Red Sea attacks, says Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen - YouTube
    By Iranian-backed militants, to show support for Hamas, according to CNBC.

    Yemen Announces a Blockade of Shipping to Israel | How Will Navies Respond & Global Shipping React? - YouTube

    San Francisco now at 35% office vacancy rate, highest ever recorded: data - YouTube


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 12,2023
  • Contenido explícito creado con IA de compañeras de clase - YouTube
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZkZDdGYcu0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCh043-gLIM

  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2oW21ac-Lk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2thow6lTRI

    Will the country shut down to travel for a day? due to mining protests.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qke7F_7DZE

    Is it because no one believes anything issuing from that source, that they use quotation marks for their statements?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKQ2_YVGAUg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pz0arxLaoo

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • Someone commented in Texas they can get housing approved in 3 months (building new homes). It's 3 years in Canada.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WG_RRKpTS-w

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prmB8mZNefo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fJjxSC_0Jc

    Sheltering women and children first, so most of those outside are of course men.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6XSFzt4-bQ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcQaG4sC9BM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_Pn-i6L8v4

    2000 Rockets for cover and Hamas gunmen entered in Israeli territory. Hamas says they have taken hostages into Hamas territory. Forces in the streets. Fighting in maybe 5 regions.

    Some crossed in paragliders. Tunnels.

    Hamas says the action is in response to actions by Israel in Jerusalem and some compound.

    Israel is bracing. Military planes are striking Gaza.

    How was Hamas able to plan and then coordinate this? considering Israel is one of the biggest tech spy countries. Pegasus came from them, it was reported. They're also friends with the US which people consider to have access to all social media/Android/iPhone. There was maybe 1000 people who knew about the attack, considering there were hundreds of soldiers from Hamas.

    Within a day or two there was a headline of 700 dead in Israel, and 400 Palestinians. US sent a carrier.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4Vw0ptT830

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ0IUCMpgEE

    Headlines about Sweden ‘lauded’ for it's ‘freedom loving’ approach to pandemic. During the pandemic, they took a lot of shit. You're letting your people die. You're not doing everything you can for them. It was hardest to be Sweden, but they seemed pretty secure in their frame when I saw them questioned or provoked along these lines.

    Now, the word I hear people most commonly used to describe the Canadian government is ‘tyranny,’ people having in mind the lockdowns, forced vaccines, response to trucker protest, mainly, and then other headlines more or less seem to reinfornce this view. America people just think is ridiculous, with the Congressional budget crises every few months. California, once considered the perhaps most free, the Wild West, now is considered the most socially engineered, socialism, most ignoring of civil rights.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ys4lfLCeCg

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 25,2023
  • TORONTO HAS CHANGED... and not for the better - YouTube 

    Everyone already knows. It's still a good place to move for people from some other countries.

    Temporary legal status offered to nearly half a million Venezuelan migrants - YouTube 

    18 months.

    Does this incentivize illegal crossings? Cartels, mules can use this news, it is said, to sell crossings to Latinos.

    Does this incentivize illegal crossings? Cartels, mules can use this news, it is said, to sell crossings to Latinos.


    White House to send 800 active-duty troops to southern border - YouTube  Chicago plans city-run grocery stores - YouTube 

    How does this affect Walmart?

    ‘Down to Amazon and Uber Eats, until the drivers get robbed enough.’

    Can the migration from the southern border into the US be called an ‘invasion.’? It's not an armed invasion of course, and it's not an army or a hostile attack. Perhaps the entry would have to be opposed by the local population and overcome to be an invasion? Are they 'entering as an enemy? It seems no.

    Can it be considered an invasion simply on grounds of being ‘harmful’? It's not really harmful, I think.

    Mexico to deport Central American migrants waiting to enter U.S. as crossings spike - YouTube 

    Near-record numbers. Hundreds of thousands per year crossing the Darian. Hoping to reach the US.

    Push factors: fleeing economic and political instability, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba. Dire conditions.

    Pull factors: ample supply of jobs in many sectors. News that the backlogged system is overwhelmed and people in it are just being released.

    Government of Venezuela does not accept US deportations.

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 18,2023

  • Coffee City fires police chief and police force - YouTube 

    Commenter: “It's rare for a news station to take this stance and investigate...”

    Carrying firearms in public banned in Albuquerque - YouTube 

    30-day ban by governor. ('public health order'?) Sheriff says he won't enforce it. There was a public gathering protest where lots of people openly carried. Lawsuits came too, saying it was an unconstitutional ban.

    Can the governor do anything again

    st this type of resistence by the sheriff?



    ‘Illegal’: Italian island Lampedusa sees 120 boats land from Tunisia in Africa - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04,2023



  • 10th bus carrying migrants from Texas arrives in LA - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023
  • What if China just opened up to visitors and stopped cracking down on privacy rights, so that people at least from more ordered countries like NEurope, Canada, Japan, NZ, could enter freely and not be tracked and see and do things there?






    Here in Nicaragua, locals say that the Hawaii thing was a weapon. Maybe to be able to clear the land to be able to develop it.



    Very few people chat with Chinese, and Chinese chat with very few people. A separate internet (all separate apps).
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 05,2023
  • 'Mystery company' buys $800M of land near California's Travis AFB - YouTube 

    ...



    Not enough water to go around: Colorado River Basin, ravaged by drought, plans for a drier future - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 03,2023
  • La NASA inicia la misión por la que 4 personas pasarán un año en una simulación de Marte - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 04,2023
  • Greenland moving towards becomming independent of Denmark.
  • May, 2023
  • May 17,2023
  • Musk thinks China invading Taiwan has a certain inevitability to it. It is China's intent.

    People talking companies reducing risk (business) in China.

    Buffet sold 86% of Berkshire's TSMC stake.

    Could China really physically invade, given the massive costs that would mean? How many years would it take to blow over?
  • May, 2023
  • May 03,2023

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 25,2023
  • "Will Europe ban cars?"
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 31,2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 23,2023
  • Gravitas: Will there be a civil war in Israel? - YouTube 

  • Arrest warrant issued for Russia’s President Putin for alleged war crimes - BBC News - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 20,2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 15,2023
  • Pharmaceutical giant slashes insulin prices after pressure from government and consumers - YouTube 
  • 'Unsustainable': Mass Exodus of Police Officers Leaving Communities in Danger - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 11,2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 03,2023

  • Awarding .5% of government-held land.
     
    Baby bonuses.
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 28,2023
  • Canadá y EE. UU. limitan uso de TikTok a empleados de Gobierno - YouTube 
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 26,2023

  • 95% of smartphone sales now Chinese (was 45% a year ago). Apple and Samsung had a combined 53%, and their share is now 3%.

  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 21,2023
  • Some analysts saying Russia doesn't have manpower to continue towards war goals

    Casualties in Ukraine high.
     
    From Americans viewpoint, it weakens the Russian army a lot.
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 20,2023
  • China, relation of State and Big Business, versus relation with small companies

    Crackdown on Tech Sector seen as an anti-private sector movement. Trying to weaken the private sector.


    Pushback against the Private Sector when it gets too big, when it no longer serves the State's interest, but at the same time, when it comes to small private sector firms, the government keeps talking about just how important they are to its vision of longterm prosperity.

    Not particularly in favor of large private firms because State loses control, the companies do things that we don't think are in the national interest, they exploit the effective monopoly that they have over the industries they've built up, but small private firms on the other hand, they are innovative, they are the ones that are responsible for driving employment in urban areas, they generate economic growth and specifically household wealth. Common prosperity. We need to give small firms the economic opportunity to succeed and to generate their own wealth.

    Big companies have become large land owners one way or another, and when the State says you have to give a rent holiday, they haven't been doing it enough. Vested interests.

    How wealth is allocated throughout the System.


     


  • Lots of headlines about military drills, etc. NK, Japan, SKorea.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 25,2023
  • It seems like many things are shifting back, approaching perhaps their median point. Wokeness, a certain type of feminism, immigration, globalism, government, medical integrity. Will it swing hard the other way now, causing moderates to have to switch to voicing Leftist concerns?

    China, Ukraine (sending weapons there including US and German tanks, it seems), NATO (Sweden, Finland, Turkey's issues), Afghanistan (last year),

    ?The 'perpetual state of emergency, AI tools (Dalle, SD, chatGPT), fakenews perhaps, hacking, crypto/blockchain, Big Tech antitrust, energy transition, MSM/bloggers,
     
  • Justin Trudeau leaving restaurant in Hamilton, Ontario & running the gauntlet of protesters - YouTube 
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 23,2023

  • They had like 25% weekly inflation last week or something.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 04,2023
  • Ukraine recently has been asking West for more arms supplies. Also saying Russia is now going to exhaust Ukraine with prolonged attacks.
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 26,2022

  • Sadness mixed with bitterness?

     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 11,2022
  • Japan launches first commercial moon lander; NASA's lunar flashlight onboard as well | WION - YouTube 
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 08,2022

  • "In England and Wales, 1 in 4 people is not English or Welsh."

    One of the reasons this happens, not just in the UK, is that the government doesn't publish (or used and then stopped) demographics data for these things it doesn't want to talk about, giving people no information to deal with, or they obfuscate the information by mixing classes of people to make the information not usable in such a discussion.

     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 05,2022
  • Is Xi the strongest cult of personality in history, as Zeihan says?
     
    "It's impossible for people to bring him information now, because they don't know what he'll do."

    "So he's just drinking Cool-Aid."


  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 04,2022

  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 02,2022
  • Has there been a rising tide of intolerance in the Middle East over the past 50 years?

    Used to be a more tolerant place?

    Homosexuality. People who feel highly threatened by tolerance.
     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 28,2022
  • This is probably the worst day for Xi Jinping since he took over in 2012, says expert - YouTube 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 27,2022

  • Calling publicly for the downfall of the ruling party hasn't happened in China since basically 1989. Tiananmen square being referred to by talkers.

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 24,2022
  • Ukrainian Consequences: The New American War Model - YouTube (at least while US perception of US interventions recovers [Zeihan thinks 18 years])

    Proxy country supplied, satellites/missile coordination, kill chain reduced from hours to minutes, US gear limits Ukrainians from moving into Russia (can't do what they do now without US gear/tech), specialOps (teams of less than 100) doing disruptions and acting as a counselor for local forces.
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 22,2022

  • 2.5% growth in subSaharan Africa (3x the global average).

    The effect of growth depends on the country. If the country has decent government and the citizens are taken care of, more population may cause less problems. Nigeria, says one man, is the opposite.

    Nigeria expected to be 3rd largest country by 2050.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 21,2022
  • Beijing in effective shutdown, a week after announcing 'easing'

    Situation is more confused now, as local officials want to look like they're matching the government's easing policy, but also want to keep deaths at zero.


  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 20,2022
  • South Korea 2022

    K-pop very important to the Korean economy and now (BTS visit to the UN) Korean politics.

    Is it sustainable long-term? "It doesn't matter. That's sort of what the whole ecosystem was built for. The reputation of the cars feeds into the reputation of the phones, and the reputation of the makeup and the movies and the films. If one falters, the others can pick up the pace. ... Korea's very innovative. They're always ready ... to start new things. They're very long-term thinking ... If you're just doing 4-year terms it doesn't work." - Euny Hong

    Next, AI, holograms, entertainment.

    ABBA was once second-earner to Volvo, maybe, for Sweden.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HkkHyUDTqw&list=WL&index=10

    There's a Korean version of just about everything. Browser, food, fashion.

    Most K-pop groups have foreign members now. It's not the exception, closer to the rule. ... Squid Game cast wasn't all Korean. Diversity. What's Korean (culture-wide) is now being redefined and maybe expanded. The population is aging and maybe shrinking, thinking about immigrants, embracing them as Korean. They have to reach out and collab more, it's not just out of charity but out of necesity, good business. ... This will make it not just sustainable but thrive. Things made not just for Koreans but for export as well. Exporting both culture (entertainment) but also technology.

    How to translate that into things Korea really cares about? like the immediate neighborhood and preserving security. Korea is the smallest country there amongs larger major powers. “Having the power of attraction is like having a great playmaker on your team but you still need a close-er” - Scott Snyder.

    What does Korea stand for? It's a very successful country, but one of the most stressed OECD society. As they grow quickly they experience stresses.

    Their soft power is causing backlash in China. To be sure, though, N Koreans are watching their drama.

    Korean language courses at colleges are full, and half of the students are non-heritage, and all of it has to do with Korean pop culture. How to turn that into lifelong supporters and friends of Korea, much like Japan has done with the past generation.

    'Korea is having difficulties deciding between the US and China, but on values Korea shouldn't have difficulty making a choice. It's very hard for Korea to talk about values anywhere that China has interest, for example Hong Kong. That's problematic if we're talking about soft power. You can't be a values producer and values projector on a conditional basis.'

  • Serious protests in China against lockdowns

    ... for Covid and various things involved with that which the people are not happy with, one of the main ones being that officials come to just take people away (a certain number of those present, it seems, rather than anything purposeful, which people in the videos say they ‘don’t understand this Covid policy') because there is ‘a case in the building.'

    Some sang ‘Sea and Sky’, some sang ‘The Lonely and the Brave,’ some sang ‘Unity is Strength’ from highrise buildings that had ‘concerts’.

    Lots of footage being published, with hundreds of people passing barricades, protests, yelling things at officials. On social media, Chinese have been using other (Chinese) languages to bypass to some degree censorship of language.

    ‘The resistence is a result of people’s bottom line being repeatedly challenged.'

    More technical news starts at around 20:00

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 16,2022
  • "I don't think invading Taiwan is a good idea, even for China, and I think the Chinese know this. But because they know how much the balance of power matters, they believe they need to have the capacity to invade it." - Samo Burja

  • Hundreds of people.

    China said they were migrant workers, reportedly.

    Rising numbers of cases of Covid in China recently.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 15,2022
  • Headlines about Russian missile landing in (NATO member) Poland and killing 2 people

    On the Ukraine border.

    G19 day, G20 tomorrow. Sentiment seems to be 'pissed off'. Prognostication seems to be 'increased support for Ukraine', which means more money being sent there in the form of weapons.

    Some things Poland might respond with, according to a redditor: "Additional arms and funding (remember those requests for jets?), decreased restrictions on the use of arms, incentives for foreign legion involvement, providing facilities to hold POWs, missile defense coverage for at least part of Ukraine, asset seizure, war criminal abduction, covert operations that go unacknowledged..."

    Yesterday Zeihan posted about the start of the 'fall of Crimea'. Russia did a withdrawal from a location, because no way to supply its forces without the rails (alternative was more roundabout routes overland or over the Black Sea).

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 14,2022
  • Anywhere but China (ABC) when looking for a factory nowadays. But 'Who lost America?' for China? They had the biggest lobby in America, the US business community. Advocating stronger, deeper ties with China.

    US and China are still intertwined though, and have 40 years of ties (sending kids to study in the other country, buying factories in the other country).

    It is thought that although they are competitors and peers, they do not share values. How true is this? Tom Friedman says this difference in values didn't matter while China was selling the US low tech goods, but when China started selling really important tech, that value difference became important.


     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 02,2022
  • Americans 77% have a favorable impression of South Koreans now (versus 31% in 2003). BTS and Squid Game.

    Traditional ally UK, 57%. Americans have a higher impression of South Korea than of Australia and France, also.

    China consistently has soured relationships when a country speaks out (often about Taiwan), and for China this is a no-go and China penalizes (economic action) them some way or other).

    NBA tweet led to a ban.

    The way China is run curbs any action to gain soft power, commented Aini. Everything that China has to show (which would be good for its image) has to go through a censorship and propaganda filter, filtering anything that could be seen as detrimental to the State. What comes out doesn't strike a chord. "China itself is actually stifling a lot of the soft power that it could have." Despite headlines saying China has a $10b soft power budget.

    Some things that China is exporting are a makeup thing, Douyin, and a game, Genshin Impact.

    If China drops it's filter, though, it will become more influenced (and communicate more?) with the West, which could lead to more instability.

    People note that nowadays, anytime anyone even talks about or mentions something that is 'Chinese culture' in a positive sense, other people 'backlash' and start making comments that are negative about something China does that aren't really relevant to the original topic.

    Another thing is that a lot of Douyin makeup is just reposted as 'Korean makeup' despite its Chinese creators, which is a label that might get more interest or views.

    Chinese can't access the world to show their culture because they're blocked, unlike Japan and Korea.


     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 30,2022
  • New footage from China congress fuels questions about why Hu Jintao was hauled out - YouTube 

  • Military spending to go up.

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 24,2022

  • He expects China to retaliate (perhaps against US tech companies in China) for Biden's banning exports of tech stuff to China.
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 20,2022
  • 45 days as PM of Britain (shortest ever), Truss resigned

    Elected by 'less than 1/10 of 1%. She appointed to leadership only friends and like-mindeds.'

    About 7 days for them to find out who the next PM will be. Not a General Election. Sunak is favorite in betting. Boris is among the potentials.

     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 14,2022


  •  
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 05,2022
  • Putin signed into law the annexation of about 18% of Ukraine
  • OPEC cut [really around 900k] barrels

    SA ok, but UAE and Kuwait seemed to be on board. Becky on CNBC asked why they didn't raise their hands if they're supposed to be US allies.

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 03,2022
  • China has a lot of energy

    Runaway energy usage on crypto-miners. Some think China made a mistake, and there should be more freedom to do crypto-mining in China. But what is the production? Once mines are set up, they only need a few people to run them.

    Why out of China? Capital controls, it can be challenging to tax, can leave borders.

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 02,2022
  • "India will not be the next China ... It will be bigger"

    ... title of a vlog I saw.

    What were the preexisting weaknesses of China that it inevitably had to face? versus those of India?

  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 30,2022
  • Opening the Venezuela/Colombia border

    A ton of Venezuelans want to cross the Darian Gap and go north into the USA (we could posit that if they were closer they would all already be there). Groups go regularly across the dangerous passage. It takes 2 weeks to arrive in the States. ... Between them and the Darian Jungle is Colombia, which has been a great friend politically to America for years. Colombia elected Petro, a ‘socialist’ president (their first Leftist president) who took office in August. He opened the border with Venezuela a few days ago.

    For previous years, Venezuealans already crossed easily into Colombia, and millions are new immigrants who crossed not though the border. How much difference does legal crossing make?

    Venezuelans prisons are overfull. Prisoners crossing is being discussed on Colombian analysis news. (Interesting to remember how Britain exported its prisoners to places like Australia over 100 years ago. To contrast, everyone talks about how currently America makes a profit for selected groups though the monetization of incarceration.) However, how many of these Venezuealans are in for polical crimes (black market petrol sales) or economic crimes (people who would not sell so many illegal products if there was a healthy economy to work in)? Or for drug crimes (drugs which are increasily being made legal in many countries)?

    Yesterday in Colombian cities there were large marches in protest of the new president. Signs carried were about taxes, breaking Antioquia into three pieces, and the Darian Gap, among other themes. Most of the marchers were older, unlike many protest marches.

    Side note. Colombians say Venezuealans are tall. How true is this?
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 16,2022
  • Things no one is heard guessing:

    - What a conclusion in Ukraine might look like
    - If Putin remains in power if Russia loses
    - Under what circumstances might sanctions against Russia be lifted
  • Tehran has all of a sudden lost its primary weapons sponsor and its primary Security Council sponsor - Zeihan

    They'll start to think and act differently. (Zeihan still). They may negotiate differently.
     
    He thinks Israel and Syria will have some firework competitions (because he thinks Biden has recently changed his stance from a former strong opposition to potential war there) and Syria will sue for peace.

    He thinks the Poles, Latvians, Fins, etc will try to peel off Belarus out of R. orbit. He sees Lukashenko sued for war crimes for providing access to Russia into Ukraine.

    Saudis (how much energy can be brought to market) will decide the government of Caracas through it's influence on the decisions of the US.
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 14,2022
  • In 5 years the US will be in a better position than it is now, with a better supply chain - Zeihan
     
    East Asia primary source on income is manufacturing.
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 13,2022
  • A couple destroyers in the Indian Ocean basin would be enough to end China's energy imports.

    (Because China's warships can only do 400 miles under combat situations.)

  • "China is probably the biggest loser in the Ukraine war after Ukraine itself." - Zeihan

    "Because they're the last country in the kick line, everyone else gets their stuff first." (Energy, Food from the Russian space)

  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 08,2022

  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 30,2022

  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 29,2022

  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 25,2022
  • Mystery deepens over Al-Qaeda chief Ayman Al-Zawahiri's death | International News | WION - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 19,2022
  • Gravitas: China's Sichuan shuts all factories to save electricity - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 18,2022

  • 60 years. Only certain types of business.
     
  • Agriculture is the sector facing the most threat over the next 10 to 20 years and it will result in multi-continental famines (between the Ukraine war and the breakdown of fertilizer supply chains) -Zeihan

    When we globalized, everyone learned to specialize. It was all about the extra value added. And we didn't really worry about having to grow sufficient food for our own plates, so we got into better things. We moved into manufacturing and services. We moved into the city. Agriculture moved from the center of everyone's lives to the edge. It became reliable the more secure and safe globalization became. That's working in reverse now. Countries have to grow their own food (now dependent on and on land only useful with fertilizers), and that means the volume produced is going to go down.

     
  • "Beijing has been quite stunned at the extent of the cooperation between Europe and America on sanctions against America. The calculation ... before the invasion was that Europe and America would be divided, and America would slap a few sanctions on but it wouldn't really be game-changing ..." - John Lee (Hudson Inst)

    "The Chinese now realize that if there's any kind of war, for example over Taiwan, the high likelihood is that the Americans would get global cooperation to start imposing extremely harsh particularly financial sanctions on the Chinese, and that would devastate the Chinese economy"

    Only the Americans tend to do war well over more than one of the 4 domains (land sea air cyber). China and Russia have high impressive numbers in military costs and equipment but haven't really invested that much in logistics and organization and coordination across domains. So its great for them to have all these weapons but if they can't actually use them in a coordinated way ...

    Unlike Russia, China still seeks to be known as a legitimate or respected leader. You can't do that just by material power alone. It would have to get other country's to accept its ownership over Taiwan for that, it couldn't just start bombing Taiwan. So the Chinese are now thinking How do we do that?

    The Covid19 pandemic began a process of diversification away from China. And factoring in the real political risk of being so reliant on China.
     
    Russia is a massive surplus producer and exporter of food stuffs and energy. China is the world's largest importer of all of that, especially for the imports necessary to grow food. The sanctions placed on Russia if placed on China would lead to a de-industrialization of the entire Chinese system in under a year, according to Ziehan.

    Boycotts. Shareholders, consumers can take a stand to change corporate policy. That's a surprise to China, according to Zeihan.


  • 3 choke points: Straight of Hormuz, Straight of Malacca, Singapore Straight.
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 13,2022
  • Sri Lanka allows Chinese vessel to dock, Washington and Delhi raise a concern | World English News - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 11,2022

  • "Someone who could bring together various factions of the Taliban and make sure they were following the same line."

    "The Taliban have been saying that their biggest achievement so far in the country is they've been able to provide security to the people of Afghanistan, and attacks like this ... are meant to taint that."

    No one has claimed it. Similar attacks in the past have been claimed by Isil.

     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 09,2022
  • China has been carrying out military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan carried some out today.

  • Another example of how things go along (although philosophically opposed by many) until there's an actual contention, and then true colors are displayed.

     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 06,2022

  • Kissinger, Nixon, anyone?

     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 02,2022

  • In Kabul


     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 31,2022

  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 28,2022
  • Zelinsky poses for Vogue


     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 27,2022
  • Russia might leave the ISS, it's being reported

  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 25,2022
  • 1983 - 2015 - Peter Zeihan

    35 years with plenty of finance, no security risks, and where anyone who wanted to play a part in the international trading system could (even countries that could have never been successful on their own in a pre-American-led-and-secured globalized system), and it was backed up by massive waves of workers and consumers. Low security costs allowed low-cost production.

    China had its best 35 years. Remove American globalism from the equation and it doesn't work. Play China forward and you see they don't have a work force.

    Currently, half the world population is dependent directly on food imports. 3/4 on fertilizer imports to grow their own food. Trade links.

    Some places weren't able to expand their populations until they could import food (like the Middle East). Some places couldn't get into manufacturing until the security thing happened (like East Asia). Some places used to go to war for energy until recently (like Europe).

     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 11,2022
  • Putin to temporarily shut down Nord Stream, reportedly
  • Sri Lanka protests. Destroyed the leaders house. He resigned. India did not send military aid.
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 08,2022
  • Chinese belt and road region


    #China #IR
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 07,2022


  • This time there was no little vial presented to Congress, so who knows what to make of this claim.

    Analysts say this time Iran wants to get an ironclad deal that the US can't back out of, and uranium stockpiles are leverage.

    Israel's new PM went to France to try to get Macron's help, but Macron wants dialogue, he stated publicly, and a new deal with Iran.

     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 04,2022

  •  
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 01,2022
  • Turkey 'got what it wanted from Finland and Sweden' in talks, its government says

    ... and it approved the bids by Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Many view this as picking sides against Russia. Erdogan also said yesterday 'We will work with Biden for the purchase of the F-16s.'

  • China going for global currency status, reaching out to 5 countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, HK, Singapore and Chile

    They can build a yuan reserve and a yuan pool (15b yuan each country). A global financial system.



  • Any direct transactions will trigger Western sanctions. This is being called a 'hack' so India's biggest cement maker can buy from Russia. 157k tonnes worth $25m (172m yuan). The sale was arranged from Dubai, reportedly. The mechanism isn't known.

    Coal is the main fuel to manufacture cement.

    13% of Russian reserves are already in yuan. Indian companies must be trading USD for yuan in a Chinese bank in China or HK. There are no sanctions if you don't use USD.

    Yuan to Ruble trade has increased 1000% since the invasion of Ukraine.

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 22,2022
  • Europe taking a lot of flack for recently switching to coal after long criticizing developing nations for using it

    Russia has cut gas exports to Europe 50% over the past week, reportedly.

    Some say China and India are buying more Russian gas.

    Colombia increased exports of coal to Europe 50% (1.3m tonnes) this year. South Africa is now sending coal to Europe.

    Europe uses 20% of the world's energy resources, but has 7% of the world's population.

     
  • "Because Afghanistan is different" - Fatima Gailani

    "This is not an Afghanistan that came out of a very bitter, ugly civil war of the Mujahedin."

    "It's an Afghanistan of educated people. It's an Afghanistan of men and women seen in important positions. This is an Afghanistan where people can go on radio, television and criticize their governments, the leaders."

    Are they doing that now? "They are doing that now. How long they will continue ... But no one could shut them up. That one thing I know."

    "If anyone is interested in governing Afghanistan, they have to accept the new Afghanistan. Never in the history of Afghanistan was it that way."

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 20,2022
  • Petro, first non-conservative president of Colombia in decades, won 50% to 47%

    Petro takes office from Duque August 7.

    Like 11m votes for him in a Country of 52m. The choice was between (Petro) a leftist who talks a lot about change, which many of the people want (the two main complaints of Colombians seem to be 'inequality' and 'corruption'), although at a risk of making things worse ('like Venezuela' since Petro is considered to be socialist). And on the other hand a right politician, which represented for voters stability and less risk but not the change many want.

    Petro has promised several things (which are not largely ideas new to him), but they would require political support beyond his office to pull off. He does not have the majority of Congress.

    1. Make more use of land. 1.5% of Colombians own 50% of the land. The idea is to tax land in ways that would encourage using it more, and to redistribute some land.

    2.a. More equality in access to health, ie a universal state system which doesn't depend on the ability of patients to pay. Payed for with 'progressive taxes' and a strong hand with corruption.

    2.b. Pensions. The offices that currently manage pensions Petro has accused of corruption. Critics say the country traditionally is not efficient as an administrator of money.

    3. Environmentalism. Colombia's oil wealth he wants to phase out to become a green economy.

    Because it is such a big change, and people weren't sure it would happen, I think it's fair to say people are excited to see what will happen, whether they are hopeful or dreadful.

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 14,2022
  • BRICS looking for new members, first time they've done so since adding South Africa 12 years ago

    G8 became G7 when they kicked Russia out.

    India has wanted to join UN Security Council for a long time, as have other countries, but none have been accepted.

    New institutions. They are saying this is a new world, some think.
     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 12,2022
  • Russian cars, newly produced, without airbags or anti-lock brakes

    ... because they can't import those right now because of their war.
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 11,2022
  • Shanghai lockdown back on
  • Will Russia continue to be a reliable supplier of arms to India, as Russia becomes involved with China?

    "A weakened Russia, with a degraded military industrial structure, is not going to be the major reliable, efficient partner we were counting on before the war." Indian congressman

    India is considering closer alliance with the US but is not impressed with the US's history of alliances (it hasn't always fared very well for the US's alliance partners, some say).

    Some say India is coming to resemble China and Russia more than it resembles Western democracies.

    2 months before the Ukraine invasion Putin visited India on a rare trip abroad.

    In 1971 both India and the Soviets were concerned about China and made a strong pact. Russia became India's #1 arms supplier (against China, India's longstanding adversary).

    Recently, the US threatened to sanction India for an arms purchase of high-tech Russia weapons.

    However, India buying arms from Russia seems to have been declining anyway over the past 10 years. India buys more now from US, Israel, France and other countries.

    Russia has historically voted against and even vetoed UN movements in support of India, particularly in India's sensitive issues like Kashmir.

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 10,2022
  • Taiwan 2022 Q2

    US and Chinese defense ministers have held their first face to face talks in Singapore.

    China's MoD spokesperson was quoted 'If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China [ie independence?], the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war. No matter the cost.'

    India recently entered the South China Sea theater by supplying the non-China side with weapons. France recently sent a diplomatic mission to Taiwan. Taiwan is one of the main issues between the US and China. Recently Biden stated he would defend Taiwan militarily if it was attacked by China.

    On the street and among commenters, people speculate China may invade during the current Ukraine invasion or perhaps after it concludes.

  • May, 2022
  • May 31,2022

  • According to Redacted, US proposed change so that authority would shift to WHO and not citizens' elected reps. Voted down only because of African countries (Western ones went along with it). This treaty, which rushes vaccines to people (without their consent), is called the "Right to Health" treaty.

    WHO a couple years ago (after Swine Flu) changed their definition of 'pandemic' away from the severity of the disease to just case numbers. So they could impose whatever measures as long as a certain number of people had a disease, regardless of what it was, it seems.

    #1 donor to WHO is Gates Foundation. Next Germany, then the US.

    A commenter on the video: The Nuremberg code consists of 10 principles, the first of which being that the voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential in any experiment on humans.

    How would this treaty relate with human and civil rights? Would it just override all of them?

     
  • May, 2022
  • May 15,2022
  • Random notes

    We're in a transition environment, and that means volatility (transition to higher rates, inflation, food prices).

    People last year, some people called it a potential hedge. Crypto is showing its true colors in this environment. But are they anything more than a small diversionary thing (Ukraine war they showed a use)?
     
  • May, 2022
  • May 13,2022
  • Random economic notes from experts

    US stock market has lost $7t in 2022.

    Generational buying opportunity.

    But some of these stocks have almost doubled in PE since pandemic lows.

    Some were used as bond proxies, defensive plays in an uncertain world.

    The 3 major areas of the world are all slowing economically. China lockdowns for Covid. Europe's looking at a recession this year. US is slowing. Growth scare is yet to be priced into markets.

    Keep an eye on investment grade, because if there's been excessive leverage taken there, that's when finance contaminates the economy (instead of the other way around).

    Stagflation as the baseline (El-Erian). Something worse depends on soft or hard landing. Inflation stuck at 5 to 6%. Complacency about CPI numbers.

    UK leader to cut 90k civil servant jobs.

    Some ask if Apple stock bounce (May 12) was a signal for a market bottom.

    We've priced in probably a hard landing. (Brian Kelly).

    We don't know if the type of stock trader who is interested in ARK-types are buying in. The prime brokers and the market makers know; they know if they're creating to lend but they won't tell us. (Jan van Eck) Vandatrack tracks retail flow and I think they're showing buyers. (Batnick)

    Investors are waiting for a higher low, watching constantly wanting to buy.

    There were a lot of narratives about why the bond market was the way it was over the past 10 years. The Central Bank. There's just one reason.

    IPOs (Rivian) and growth stocks (Zoom) were huge but now are small relative to established companies. "It was a relative game." "Did you see what they're paying for Tesla?"

    "Everything trades off of Apple, I think."

    The labor market is SO tight.

    "The Fed is happy. The market decline is orderly (haven't had to pause the market) They're being very transparent about what they're doing. And people still have jobs."

    The only problem is that our cost of living is going up. Wages are going up, but how is your quality of living?

    There's 1.9 (reported) jobs right now for every 1 person seeking a job. You can quit your job and get another one in a snap. How powerful do you feel? Stocks in your portfolio are 30% lower than they were a year ago.

    If there's a recession, we're not low enough (stock market). Because multiples will have to come down and earnings will come down with them.

    The elephant. The Fed is going to get out of fixed income market. And we have commercial banks that provide no liquidity to the fixed income market. So that is where the breakage can happen. Because everyone has to borrow money if they want to buy a house or anything else?

    Does that Fed tighten too much? I don't think they care about asset prices, because they need to kill inflation. They made a boo-boo and they really want to fix it. "Causing inflation." ("Transitory.") That is their job: price stability.

    The pain that's going to come from borrowers having to pay a lot more debt.

    Corporations are OK (balance sheets). It's governments that have borrowed too much money.

    The biggest global risk is a China recession. And that's priced in because China's in a recession.

    Everything prices off of treasuries.

    Circled on the calendar. In June the Fed leaves the fixed income market. (Back in July?)

    The Fed wants to reload their ammo, so they can come back into the market if they want to. Then they can do bond market intervention if they want. As the liquidity comes out of the system and the labor market is still OK. It could be really tough for investors but that's not important to them.

    I think they're more mad at having to pay $200 to fill up their gas tank than anything else right now. The pocketbook of the household is going up. Everything.

    Wages are sticky inflation. Everything else is fixable. You can have more wheat next year. We're getting close to the wage price spiral but we're not there yet.

    The stock market is not the economy, but it is the economy to private companies.

    There's a lot of ebbs and flows to valuations.

    One of the price-setters for venture capital and growth tech is Masayoshi Son, lost $24b in Q1. (He made a lot in Alibaba. He doesn't currently have a lot of money to spend, so.) He still put $2.5b out on the street in Q1. SOFTBANK.

    Some people focus on 0 to 1. I want to focus on 1 to 2. You wanna have more than 1 product. So, Robinhood had low-cost trading. Then what? That's not the company, that's just the 0 to 1. How do you get your competitive pricing moat? You almost know Coinbase is gonna get decreasing revenue from their customers, just because there's going to be more competition. ROBINHOOD. COINBASE.

    There's a lot of fintech companies, all spending money on trying to win customers. The race to zero.

    What are you betting on in the crypto space (for private investing)? Software development teams, that can solve a problem that needs to be solved for a long period of time.

    I can't hire enough people, and you have to pay them too much. My brokerage account shrunk. My cost of everything is up. Everyone quit on me.

    Consumer credit boomed in March (2022). Sign of gas prices are too high, and I need to leave a higher balance on my credit cards. I was not squeezed for the last 2 years (stimi checks). I'm not paying with cash anymore; I'm putting half on my credit card. (credit was way down during stimulus check-era.)

    People say consumer spending is doing good because it's still high. But that's not the right reading. They don't want to be spending that. That's just what it costs now.

    If you greenlight (and regulate well) onshore crypto, people don't need to go to offshore). But the problem is the FCC needs to fight against the banking regulators.

    Bitcoin is maturing as an asset. The biggest country stopped mining and it survived. The mining difficulty rate adjusted. ... But it is not hedging against inflation. Gold didn't hedge inflation in the current environment really well either (it did hit a high last year).

    The dollar is weakening and strengthening. It's at a 20-year high.

    MARKET HISTORY when thinking about Bitcoin. FDR made it illegal for individuals to buy gold. But they could buy gold coins. Coograms and Maple Leafs. Everyone bought gold through futures contracts instead. And then we had gold bullion ETFs.

    I think gold has underperformed the last 5 years because of Bitcoin. People born with a cellphone in their hand. People in Ukraine.

    Smart Contracts have outperformed over the last 12 months. One of them has to be a winner. And you should also buy a basket.

    GDX is more liquid than gold. In a bear market it's hard to trade a gold company.

      
  • May, 2022
  • May 12,2022

  • Recently the US, which has never recognized Taiwan's independence (for the sake of its relationship with the CCP) deleted a sentence on the State Dept website that said the US "does not support Taiwan independence." It changed wording that had referenced Taiwan as being part of China.

    Is the US going to spend some more money on arms for Taiwan?

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 26,2022

  • This video gives an idea of how China is managing its cities during the pandemic April 2022 (2 years after the start, but after the latest Omicron strain, when China locked down Shanghai again). Lots of images.

    Lower immunity from natural infection - uniquely vulnerable. It was a source of national pride for Chinese that their case numbers had been so low, and they had so 'successfully' weathered the pandemic relative to other countries, although their strict lockdowns of cities caused economic and other problems (such as other health problems due to lack of diagnosis and treatment, access to medicine, etc, psychological problems from isolation, social issues from lack of socialization - it has been said (by Mill in the following terms) that the necessity of the mental wellbeing of people (on which all their other wellbeings depend) lies in freedoms) as well as extreme tracking and monitoring through electronic devices and registration. Some say the Chinese see the issue politically, as the Chinese system versus the West, so it may be less likely China would now permit opening the cities and having more infections, because of the images that would be shown to the world.
     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 25,2022
  • Cameroon signed a new agreement with Russia for Military cooperation

    They have ongoing military agreements.
  • Members of the Saudi royal family have been selling yachts, homes etc for a few years

    Apparently, MBS has cut money usually given to royals. He wants the money to fund ambitious projects. Some say that if the royals have lavish lifestyles, MBS will view them as rivals, and so are opting to hold cash.

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 24,2022
  • Macron won a second term

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 20,2022
  • China makes security pact with Solomon Islands

    Reportedly just before a US diplomat was supposed to go to keep this very thing from happening.

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 12,2022

  • Chinese city residents are organizing in group chats (on their phones) to negotiate and buy food bulk from vendors they know

  • Chinese government facing criticism inside country for:

    - efficacy of Chinese-made vaccines
    - refusal to use mRNA vaccines provided to them by US

    200m people (20% of population) are locked down in China right now. 13 of their largest cities and some other cities.

  • Shanghai has been under (strict) lockdown for a couple weeks now, as part of a zero Covid plan

    There's no food on the grocery store shelves now, reportedly. The government is deploying food packets. Reports that wealthy people had hoarded the food from stores.

    Truck driver restrictions/refusals to enter Shanghai disrupting supply chain.

  • Four deadly attacks in Israel in past weeks

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 08,2022
  • "Globalization, which historically was viewed as a barrier to conflict due to the interdependent nature of global trade, has now become a new battleground." - Patrick Boyle

    China recently stated that the US's use of weaponization of global finance (sanctions on Russia [after doing it to Iran's central bank a few years ago]) would be the downfall of it's status as world reserve currency. Ie integrity.

    China has a version of Swift, and India is considering (so far just considering) doing a Ruble-Rupee exchange or working in barter.

    Most of the West is on side, sanctioning Russia, and that makes up the bulk of currency action, but there are still 100 countries or something that are not sanctioning Russia. Brazil is another country that might help Russia work around the sanctions. Boyle said the use of sanctions in the way the US is doing will have many countries wondering if they can still trust the US.



     

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 07,2022

  • Parents and children had been separated by force (no choice), if one was found to have Covid. They are now allowed to be together again.

    Only supermarkets and pharmacies are open. Images of China's biggest city look the same as the 2020 beginning of the pandemic.

    State-owened banks are loaning businesses, which have no revenue now, money, in some cases.

    In other cases, people are working, traveling in a closed loop between home and their factory. Factories set up tents during the pandemic, which allows them to do this now.

    China uses drones to go around telling people not to go out or doors.

    The hope is to reduce new infections to 0 in two weeks.

    This lockdown is expected to cost Shanghai 3.5% in economic growth.

     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 04,2022

  • Note that RT is banned on YouTube. This news comes from a blogger who used RT.
  • People seem to be starting to talk about 'fear'

    I mean vloggers, writers, commenters. This seems to be just starting in at least some sense. The fear of people faced with anxiety and threat (from, I guess, governments more than anything).
     
    I've seen this topic taken up by several vloggers lately.
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 24,2022

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 20,2022
  • The Germans have been slashing [defense] budgets basically every year for the last 20 years. The capabilities of the once-fearsome West German military that became the German military, those are long gone. There's really nothing Germany can do except economically. - Samo Burja

    Britain, France. These are shadows of what they were even in the 90s.

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 18,2022
  • SA holding the cards

    XI is reportedly going to make his first overseas visit in 2 years to SA. Recently Biden asked SA to increase oil production and they said no.

    US is energy independent (biggest oil producer) and China is the biggest energy consumer (currently buys 1/4 of SA's oil exports). SA is the biggest crude oil exporter.

    US published documents on Yemen or something and linked SA royal house to Kashogi killing. China has it's think in Xinjiang.

    SA and US have an old relationship. China has leverage over Iran, something US may never have.

    How much weapons will China provide for SA?

    Reportedly China is talking about using Yuan instead of USD to buy oil. SA made a deal with Nixon to trade oil only for USD in return for security guarantees.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 14,2022
  • "Note that [the US] cannot simultaneously embargo these three places," Samo Burja said about the US going to try to get Venezuela to produce some oil. The US can't embargo Venezuela, China, and Russia all at the same time.

  • "It's not in China's interest to have Russia collapse. So I think a coupling of Russia to the Chinese system feels like the default outcome right now." - Samo Burja

    Resulting in high energy prices in Europe, slow de-industrialization and impoverishment of Europe.

    China is the only winner of a conflict between Europe and Russia, Burja said, although he said the US could benefit long term from the goings on (because the US can be energy independent and produce oil, in addition to other reasons).

     
  • "The entire German strategy for the last 40 years has been 'Use our economic weight to effect a favorable security and trade and regulatory environment worldwide. That strategy has failed profoundly." - Samo Burja

    ... talking about Ukraine.
  • Poll about if America were invaded like Ukraine


     
  • 18m excess deaths attributed to pandemic (not counting 2022 it seems)

    The paper doesn't say (because we don't yet have research with any conclusions it seems) what happened. Was it that the virus in its various strains was stronger than thought, or was it people not able to access health care, or was it due to preventative measures, or what?

    It's expected there will be repercussions going forward as well, as people who avoided or weren't able to get diagnoses for things didn't know or weren't able to be treated in a timely manner.

    Paper in the Lancet  
  • "Some sort of clarification of the situation of Ukraine was inevitable." - Samo Burja

    "Either there would be another coup like the one in 2014, and the government would once more flip towards Russia. Or NATO would move very quickly, and put NATO troops in Ukraine and make Ukraine a NATO member and Russia probably wouldn't dare to overturn that outcome with military force."

    "Part of the game is inflicting unacceptable political and economic situations on your enemy, forcing your enemy to act first militarily, thereby having the moral justification to retaliate much more strongly."

    "Powers do try to entrap each other into military action. If I believed more in the competence of the Pentagon, I would believe that they had goaded Russia into an invasion that they knew Russia would fumble."
     
  • "NATO is not benevolent. Both NATO and Russia are engaged in imperialistic expansion, driven of course by mutually irresolvable legitimate security concerns." - Samo Burja

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 13,2022
  • So far, violence not super high in Ukraine

    MSM is constantly reporting on the destruction, but it's very limited. Talking about 'a building' or 'an attack.'

  • Results of Ukraine war, according to Samo Burja

    1. China develops more alternatives to the Western financial and economic system (West is "fighting tanks with sanctions," so Russia will seek alternatives), and starts offering them to rogue states around the world. Even if China doesn't offer a base of support to Russia, countries around the world will more and more want to turn to China for their economic integration. (Will China also 'buy terrorist states' as Chomsky puts it?)

    2. Russia successfully occupies large chunks of Ukraine that it did not occupy before.

    3. Putin remains in power for the next year.

     
  • Many commentators and experts when talking about Ukraine are saying it's a war crime or it's an unjust war, but leaving it at that.

    They're not saying anymore against Russia's actions. They are all putting it in context of the situation the West has created. Then they add again their line about it not being a just war, or about it being a war crime.

    They liken the war, being a pre-emptive war, to the US invasion of Iraq, which they also say is a war crime.
  • Putin starts destroying cities, or a prolonged war of attrition, are the two prospects Chris Hedges presumes for Ukraine

    Putin has been restrained in the damage he's done in Ukraine, Hedges said, but he may become frustrated and lift restraints, resulting in largescale deaths. Or, if there is a steady stream of arms shipments into Ukraine, it may be a long war of attrition.

    Which would be more profitable for the permanent military industrial complex?

    #Ukraine #Russia #MIC
  • Ukraine seems to for many people be highlighting the negatives of 'nationalism'

    Which unites the right and left, often contains or mixes with racism, one group over another or excluding another.
     
  • "Because Russia controls the air, the game is ultimately fixed against the Ukrainians" - Chris Hedges

    Because the West won't call a 'no fly zone' (which would be interpreted by Russia as an act of war, it's been said), Russia will control the air and therefore the war.

    Hedges hearkened back to Iraq where Apache helicopters basically acted as mobile tank-destroying machines, picking one off after another.

  • SA executes 81 men

    The largest mass execution recently. Some were murderers, and others were found to have 'pledged allegiance to foreign terrorist organizations.'

    This was reported by Wion.

    73 of the 81 were Saudi nationals who had been found guilty in a single case of attempting to assassinate security officials, targeting police stations and convoys.

    SA officials said it was 'only protecting its national security interest through its laws.'

    The countries that execute the most people are China, Iran, Egypt, Iraq, and fifth SA.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 12,2022
  • US has been involved in fighting in 84 of the 194 countries recognized by the UN

    ... according to Wion

    Map with the countries it's invaded or been military involved in:


     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 11,2022
  • Reportedly, UAE and SA have declined to answer phonecalls from Biden

    ... although they have both spoken to Putin, reportedly.

    Wion said the reason was a 'trust deficit.' And noted the affair with the killing of the journalist Kashogi.
     
  • No one can talk or think about anything except Ukraine these days

    ... not much of value is being said. Mostly they're not historians or journalists with some time in.

    ... Other stories that might be critical of the government, that they've been doing and now data is coming out? Crickets.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 07,2022
  • Putin's conditions for ending the war:

    - Ukraine must recognize Crimea as Russian

    - Ukraine must recognize Russian-controlled separatist regions as independent

    - Ukraine must change its constitution to formally renounce its ambitions to join political blocs like NATO and the EU

  • "We're in total economic war" - Steve Weiss
     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 03,2022
  • So looking back a bit, focus on air in Russia Ukraine

    First move by Russians was knock out Ukraine's static radar positions to decrease Ukraine's early warning system. Cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. (24th)

    And also air defense systems like the S300 surface to air missiles.

    Also runways and airports to create runways for themselves and destroy some planes that were parked there (some say they weren't as successful in this part).

    Second, focus on air assets of Ukraine (bases and air crafts, and remaining air defenses). This hasn't happened.

    Russia is mostly using helicopters and gunships. Unguided weapons. They've left space and Ukraine has launched offensives there. R hasn't kept U's planes on the ground.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 01,2022
  • US has a freedom convoy moving

    Restaurants, fuel companies, etc. have been donating.

    Expected to reach near DC in early March. But said they won't be entering DC proper.
     
    You might note here that while many disruptor businesses and tech are trying to replace drivers (lowering costs), the dependence on actual people preserves the popular ability to combat government oppression.
  • Ukraine saying Russia is bombing civilian targets, Russia saying Ukraine is placing military equipment near residential buildings which is why it's targeting there

  • Ukraine expects up to 70 fighter jets from Bulgaria, Poland, and Slovakia

    According to RT. Bulgaria denied this, but RT said Poland seems to be on board.

    Thousands of anti-tank and anti-air have been sent in from EU and NATO countries.
  • Foreign legion to fight in Ukraine

    Ukraine has published some videos for people from other countries, that people can come to Ukraine and fight with them.

    It was pointed out that the people this might attract might be in significant part far-right extremists or 'nazis' (whatever that word means right now), and that they would afterwards return to their nations hardened, proud and accomplished in what they'd been doing and the company they'd been keeping.

     
  • 60km long convoy of Russian military vehicles making its way to Kiev

  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 28,2022
  • Reportedly, Russian side of war not going very well

    Whether this is true or not, there's no way to tell.

    Some have mentioned less than stellar military training of troops, and perhaps most of all that Russians don't want to shoot Ukrainians.

  • Estimated that maybe 5m Ukrainians will become refugees in Europe (mostly in Poland)

    They're talking about allowing such refugees to live in EU countries for three years.

  • Some in US gov saying we're past the point of no return for the prospect of rebuilding relations with Russia under Putin

    It's been said that Germans will never again make themselves dependent on R energy, and that they now see it as a mistake. And that the Brits will never be the conduit for Oligarch wealth they have been for the past 20 years.

     
  • Nightmare scenario is that the conflict expands to other parts of Ukraine, or there's an air or sea accident, and Russia is then fighting an EU country - Ian Bremmer

  • If Putin kills lots of Ukrainians (which it's expected he would have to do to take Kiev) this will increase opposition within Russia, since they two countries have such strong ties, lots of relations - Ian Bremmer's thought

    Questions about possible future Russian demotivation

    Ian Bremmer is from Eurasia Group

     
  • 2008 Russia takes a piece of Georgia, sanctions were pretty limited

    2014 takes two pieces of Ukraine, a few years later he's hosting the World Cup and European leaders are coming to visit him there

    2016 elections, Obama's like I don't want to deal with that right now

    So the economic sanctions now are maybe more than Russia expected

    - View by Ian Bremmer

  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 27,2022
  • Reportedly, 6000 of people who were nonviolently protesting the Ukraine invasion were detained in Russia

     
  • "Russia has taken the position that grievance and victimization is what powers their domestic and foreign policy" - Rory Finnin

     
  • US was trying to make Ukraine into "a de facto member of NATO,"according to John Mearsheimer

    "They [the Russians] aren't interested in negotiating anymore. They're interested in altering the status quo."

    He said the genesis of this conflict was 2008, the decision to try to make Ukraine part of NATO. The crisis breakout was Feb 22, 2014 end of what he calls the 'unipolar moment'). It was then put on the backburner, and then all of a sudden it broke out again.

    The obvious solution is perhaps politically impossible, M said. Because America unwilling to make any concessions on NATO. ... Turning Ukraine into an effective buffer, a neutral state, between Russia and NATO, which is what Ukraine was since independence in 1991 until 2014.

    Before the problem, the problem has to be solved of the lack of agreement between the pro-Russian Donbas and the Ukrainian government in Kiev.

    He said the Russians don't want to negotiate with the UK or Germany or NATO, because they all just do what the Americans ask them to do. So Russia only wants to talk to the US president.

    He (speaking a few days before the actual invasion) said Putin probably had no intention of invading, because that would mean 'owning' Ukraine, being an unwanted occupying force, which in the modern world just comes with so much trouble of all sorts. He said Putin must surely understand that. Also that the West would go to great lengths to cripple the Russian economy. Also, without invading, Putin was 'winning.' He had everyone's attention and everyone was trying to talk to him, and that it was now understood in the West that Ukraine was not going to be possible to bring into NATO.

    He thinks eventually US and Russia become allies against China, and that China is a bigger threat to Russia than the US is. He didn't, however, see an offramp for the Ukraine crisis (speaking before the invasion).

    He said Trump, who wanted to be closer with Putin and pivot to Asia, didn't get his way, but then started to arm Ukraine, 'much tot he chagrin of Russia.'

    He noted the contemporary superhigh anti-Putin, anti-Russian sentiment in the US (both parties, and popularly). He didn't know why, except some guesses like remnant associations to do with the Cold War, Putin's always standing up to the US, that Putin heads an authoritarian state and his stance on homosexuality and other social issues. The invention of the Democrat's story that Hillary lost the election because the Russians manipulated the system and caused Trump to win the vote.

    He said NATO needs the Russian threat to exist. He said that as to the question of getting European nations to spend 2% on military, "Don't hold your breath." They're basically free-riders. Why spend that if the US is going to take care of you anyway? However, if the US pivots to Asia and 'leaves' Europe, and if Europe perceives Russia as a threat, then EU States would spend more on military. If they have to provide for their own defense. He drew a parallel to Japan, which free rode off the US until China grew to a size where it became a real threat. Japan now faces what they perceive to be an existential threat, and has started to talk more like a 'realist.'

    Talking about nuclear weapons, he said that although they have been a force for peace, a deterrent, they weren't much of a factor in Putin's then-possible invasion of Ukraine because the US (Biden) already said if Russia invaded US wouldn't do anything, and even if Americans IN Ukraine were threatened he wouldn't, so they're not really a deterrent in that case. He said what would keep Putin from invading was the costs (invasion, occupation) and the benefits of keeping on without invading (Russia doing well).

     
  • Economic consequences of Russian invasion of Ukraine, by Patrick Boyle

    US and allies are removing some Russian financial institutions from Swift, and imposing major restrictions on Russia's central bank.

    The R central bank has $640b in foreign exchange reserves, much held at various western central banks. But some is in Russia and in China (also not expected to be frozen). So they have about $240b in available reserves. The war costs an estimated $20b per day. This could cause bank runs, tank the Ruble, and cause panic among Russian businesses. 

    The US has previously imposed sanctions on the central banks of Iran, N Korea, and Venezuela.

    S&P lowered Russia's rating to junk (high borrowing rate), and Fitch lowered Ukraine's, and Moody's might do both.

    Russia produces 10m barrels per day of oil. Because Europe and other countries are dependent so heavily on Russian oil and gas, the reaction was slower to their invasion than might otherwise have been the case.

    Germany specifically. While 2022 was set to be the date for the shutting down of all nuclear power in Germany (it's down to 3 plants now and they're planned to shut this year), a plan started 20 years ago and fortified by sentiment after Fukushima in 2011. Also all of Europe has been reducing coal energy and other types like that, focusing on clean energy, but it hasn't happened very fast so they still depend heavily on Russian gas. That effects BP and Total Energy are exposed to Russian energy. BP owns almost 20% of Rosneft, an investment that sent $2.4b profits last year for BP.

    Increases in fertilizer prices, a secondary effect of sanctions of Russian gas exports, will push food prices up everywhere.

    Russia and Ukraine together make up about 1/3 of grain production in the world. Potatoes, sugar beets, sunflower oil also. Food factories are shutting down plants in Ukraine temporarily. There could be food shortages, potentially. Food shortages, which could affect Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Pakistan and Indonesia, could lead to political consequences like uprisings.

    Aluminum, dependent on electricity, 14% of world production in Russia (excluding China).

    Metal producers are cutting their output after natural gas prices shot up like 30%.

    Nickel (batteries), lots is produced in Russia. Palladium (catalytic converters, electrodes and electronics ie auto manufacturing countries like China and North America) too. Platinum (catalytic converters, lab equipment, electrical contacts and jewelry). C4F6 and Neon (semiconductors) are produced by both countries.

    Ukraine is a big producer of titanium (aircraft manufacturing, jewelry, phones, surgical tools).

    US started cutting banking exposure to Russia in 2014 (Crimean conflict), but Austria's Faiffeisen makes 1/3 of their profits in Russia, and some other European banks are also highly involved in Russia.

    UK airlines can't use Russian airspace right now to fly to China. Expected to be all of Europe soon.

      
  • Putin invaded Ukraine Feb 22, 2022

    The first time there's been war in Europe for a while. It's a controlled, limited invasion so far. Deaths are being counted in small numbers.

    Before invading, Putin placed 150k soldiers all around Ukraine and put his ships in the sea southeast of Ukraine.

    Ukrainians started fleeing to Poland and other neighboring countries. Ukraine passed a law forbidding men from leaving the country. News images of crying families.

    Russian tanks and weapons surrounded Kiev.

    Feb 27, Germany passes legislation which it would have been unthinkable it could/would pass before. It will build up its military and take moves to reduce its reliance on Russian gas.

    The German chancellor in a speech said that 'permanent security in Europe is not possible with Russia there,' and ' we find our self in a new age' and that people in Ukraine are fighting 'not just for their homeland but for liberty and democracy, for values that we share with them.'

    The German government will now commit $100b Euros more to buy military stuff. US and some other allies have for years been pushing Germany to spend more than 2% on defense, and this it the first time Germany is going to do that. The idea up until now was that Germany, after WWII, should never again wield military might because of the terrible suffering caused during that war.

    Some commenters say that the resistance Russia faced in trying to take Kharkhiv may have been a surprise for Russia, since there are strong Russian ties there (and one might assume it would be easier to take than other parts of Ukraine).

    Zelenskyy said "That night was hard. What did they do? This is revenge. The people rose to defend their State. They, the Russian army, showed their real face. This is terror. They are going to bomb our Ukrainian cities even more. They are going to kill our children even more in cities."

    Russia is basically just attacking military targets (it said it's hit almost 600 of its targets), such as energy sources, but some have landed in ways that have killed and maimed bystanders.

    Zelenskyy basically accused Belarus of being complicit, helping Russian forces enter from the northern border.

    There's a question about where the two leaders could meet to discuss end to the war. Ukraine rejected Belarus, but suggested Poland. Russia hasn't commented on that yet.

    There's a question about whether Putin calculated well. The clear weapon and military superiority it has over Ukraine allowed it to invade, and use air and ballistic power with effect, but troops walking across Ukraine, actual actions / occupation, it isn't clear Russia will be able to. Also there's a question about how popular this action really is even in Russia. How many fallen Russian soldiers will the country take?

    Klaus Wittmann said he expected a prolonged, underground war, house to house, street to street, where you don't know where snipers or anti-tank attacks might come from. Probably much higher motivation on the side of the defenders. He referred to the Chechen War.

    Russian oligarchs lost around $126b in their value ($40b was the day of the invasion), it was reported.

    Protests have taken place in various places around the world in support of Ukraine. 20-30k estimated participation (but they way the reported said that might make you doubt there was that many really) of one in Berlin, bigger than ones the previous days. It is considered not just a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but an international conflict. Reportedly, they support supplying Ukraine with weapons.

    Feb 22, 2014 was the day Yanukovich fled Ukraine for Eastern Ukraine (and after that to Russia), and the protesters were said to be in control of Kiev. The Ukrainian parliament voted to impeach Yanukovich and scheduled new presidential elections.




      
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 01,2022
  • Lots of US headlines about Russia's possible invasion of Ukraine

  • World population might peak by mid-century and return to around current size by 2100 - Dr Darrell Bricker

    He guesses 2040's will be the beginning of population decline, with the last of the boomers. 2030's will be a largescale retirement.

    We thought the pandemic would lead to a baby boom. Instead, fertility rates depressed. Counties that depend on migration for population also have growth disrupted as travel was more difficult.

    China, the world's largest country with 1.4b people, is projected to lose almost half its population size this century. India, which has 1.4 also, will lose 290m in the century. USA with 330m will rise about 11m.

    Urbanization has a major affect on fertility, and therefore on population. On the farm children are extra hands; in the city they're more expense. We'll have an older, less fertile population.

    Almost 60% of people live in cities, and that will be around 70% by 2050. This will be moreso in Asia and Africa (China will be 80% urban, it's presumed; Japan is currently 92% urban and might go to 95%). Less in North America and Europe (already quite urbanized).

    The changing role of women is a major factor. Women are the majority of university students in the first world (most countries), and so delay marriage or children till their late 20s or early 30s. It's said that the best thing to look at to guess a country's fertility rate, it's the education rate of women.

    Societies don't value large families nowadays either.

    The fertility rate in 1960 was 5.2, and it's 2.3 or 2.4 now. Expected to be 2.2 in 2050. Japan is 1.4 right now. Russia about the same. Deaths per year in Russia outnumber births by about 1m. Russia has a median age of 40 currently, and Japan 48. USA is 38, a year less than China's 39. African countries are younger, although their growth is also slowing (but much less than elsewhere).

    In the modern era, no country that has fallen below population replacement fertility of 2.1 has been able to get back above it.

    To put the US in context, though, compared with Russia and Japan, you have to consider that if the US didn't have largescale immigration, it would not be growing either. Note that US is still by far considered the most desirable country to relocate to, and is the population with the most immigrants.

    An older population is also more female (since males are more likely to die of just about every cause of death except for things men can't die from because they don't have the body parts). Over the age of 40, there are less men and more women. At age 100 it's 5 to 1.

    There might be a population bust by 2050. Less consumption (neither older people nor robots buy as much as younger). Less innovation (it is guessed).

    In the US and Canada, the most common household is a person living by themself. At the start and at the end of their adult life.

    Female cosmetic surgery, supporting money, transportation from countryside. Reduced pressures. More things for families. Robots as consumers.

     
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 13,2022
  • 'When a member of [US] Congress goes to Taiwan and declares that she is now in the Republic of Taiwan, that's terribly provocative"

    ... and who ends up getting hurt in that situation? It's the people of Taiwan. If there is ever a military conflict there, even if it's turned back, thousands of people in Taiwan will die. And members of Congress ought to be aware of that simple truth. - Joseph Fewsmith

  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 03,2022
  • Myanmar coup fighting continues

    Reports have it that the military who took power by force are not doing so well to consolidate power. Fighting continues. Defections continue into the People's Defense Forces. Becoming something of a civil war.

    Possible US tactics, they're currently coming up with a plan at Congress: Squeeze oil and gas revenues (which go to military). Possibly, US could accuse them of genocide (Ryohinga also a possibility), although the military is killing all groups including their own.

    People already people suffering from lack of food, etc., but the strategy of resistance is to sort of destroy the economy and accept what comes along with it, to squeeze the military government in power.
     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 29,2021

  • DoD fails another audit

    Fourth in a row I think. But it's 'getting closer.' Current budget is $724b. It doesn't track well it's spending at an enterprise (overall) level.

    This is up since the 80s, but as a percentage of GDP it is lower than the 80s. It's currently between 3 and 4% of GDP (was about 5%).

    Some (?) is debt-financed. Some is misallocated.

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 28,2021
  • Omer Barlev, Israel's minister of public security, says he fears Israeli threats

    ... and is receiving 24/7 protection.

    He spoke against settler violence by Israelis, and received threats. He blamed another political party for making him the enemy of settlers.

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 10,2021
  • US companies, mandated by Biden to impose vaccines on employees, give employees 2 forms

    ... one they sign to say they will get vaccinated, and another to say that if the vaccine causes a negative reaction the won't sue the company.
     

  • 92% of Americans have immunity now

    ... either from natural or vaccine antibodies.
  • Brazil health ministry loses all vaccination data

    ... in a 'hack' which many consider likely an inside job by the government, since Bolsonaro doesn't want vaccine passports.

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 07,2021
  • "So many people, including smart people, think that there are too many people in the world and think that the population is growing out of control. It's completely the opposite. Please look at the numbers. If people don't have more children, civilization is going to crumble. Mark my words" - Elon Musk

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 06,2021
  • US won't send officials (diplomats) to Beijing Olympics

    ... because, it says, of China's genocide (Uighurs not Tibetans), crimes against humanity, and other human rights abuses.

    Support came from both sides of the Congressional isle.

    US Athletes are still going.

    In 1980, US officials AND athletes weren't allowed to go to the Moscow Summer Games, due to, the US said, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Russia refused to come to the Summer Games in the US in 1984.

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 05,2021
  • 'Transnational repression'

    'You are not allowed to be a popular person who is not working for them. Either you are their friend or you are their enemy, and that's it. You are their enemy because you tell what they don't want to be told.' - the guy they made Hotel Rwanda about, now a political activist outside of Rwanda, Paul Rusesabagina.

    Rwanda got him. He was living as a legal resident in Texas, and tried to fly to Burundi through Dubai for something. He boarded a private plane in Dubai but it took him instead to Rwanda. (Admitted by Rwanda's justice minister) the Rwandan government paid for that plane. He was charged with terrorism and other crimes. However, from reports I saw he might have actually been funding and founding groups politically active in Rwanda. I can't comment on whether you would want to call them 'terrorist.'

    One of his daughters also was a target. Reportedly, the government hacked her phone and used it to listen in on her life, including meetings with lawyers.

    Transnational repression is the word people are using for part of this. Where governments use threats, intimidation, violence, assassination and murder to silence critics even when they're not in the country. Freedom House documents this.

    Some lawyers say he was kidnapped (by means of his illegal rendition to Rwanda). The government did not present a formal request for rendition, because, some lawyers say, this would have never passed a judge's test, and this is why they didn't do it legally (due process).

    His family is suing the private airline.

     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 24,2021
  • USA added to 'backsliding democracies' list of IDEA think tank

    ... who says a visible deterioration began in 2019, and that an important point was when Trump questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election results (when he lost).

    The list is based of 50 years of democratic indicators in 150 countries.

  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 19,2021
  • Israel's bombing of Gaza media tower further called into question

    On May 15, Israel bombed the Al Jalaa Tower (media tower) in Gaza which housed international media outlets (including AJ, AP, and Middle East Eye).

    To justify doing so to the US, Israel (internal intelligence agency) gave the US a file on the situation. The US wasn't satisfied and asked for further info on how the building was linked to Hamas etc. Israel handed the US a second report that closed the gaps " " of the first file.

    However, now Israeli newspaper Haaretz has reported that the file was 'retroactively edited.' An allegation in this is that Israel did know there was media organizations in the building although they claimed they didn't, or something like that.

     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 15,2021
  • Delhi air pollution very high, and the city commands some work from home

    Schools go back online, construction work banned, government offices go remote.

    The air is toxic there most of the year (air quality around 500), and when temps dip like now it's worse. Farm fires in neighboring states has increased recently.

     
  • Xi extended his rule 5 more years

    Was due to end his term.

  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 13,2021
  • Mysterious blasts in China?

    WION reported that there have been 10 high-intensity blasts in 7 days across China. No real info from China on the blasts.


    Why is China not talking about the mysterious blasts?
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 07,2021
  • Reportedly, Iraq PM subject of attempted assassination

    By drone attack / 'cowardly rocket'. In the Green Zone.

    No one claimed responsibility, but militants are one of the main suspects.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 22,2021
  • "For Chile's largest indigenous group, the Mapuches, this is the latest chapter in a 500 year conflict for control of their ancestral land.

    "In the late 1800's, the Chilean state took away most of it and gave it to Chilean and European farmers, plunging the Mapuche's into poverty until this day. Now younger, more radical Mapuche's are taking up arms to expel forestry companies and large land owners.

    "Highways are no longer safe. Countless agricultural equipment has been destroyed. While Mapuche communities take over land.

    "A Chilean farmer was the latest to die after his house was set ablaze by an armed group."

    This was how AJ reported it.

    Chile has declared a state of emergency.
     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 13,2021
  • China making more moves toward unification with Taiwan

    Last week China flew a bunch of war jets over Taiwan.

    Xi made new comments China would unify with Taiwan, the day before Taiwan's national day. In the past, Xi has threatened he might take Taiwan by force, but the recent statements were considered to be much softer than that.

    One way to view Taiwan is as another province like those that have already been returned to China (Hong Kong and Macao in the 90s). A breakaway province.

     
  • French forces prepare to close bases in Mali


  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 30,2021
  • "Possibly the single greatest risk to human civilization is the rapidly diminishing growth rate. And the facts are out there for anyone to look at. But a lot of people are still stuck with Paul Illick's book Population Bomb, and it's like, uh, that was a long time ago. That is not the case today. And there was a massive notch in demographics last year because the growth rate plummeted, and also this year." - Elon Musk at CodeCon 2021 (September)

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 20,2021
  • US deporting the 10k Haitian immigrants in Texas

    ... on direct flights to Port au Prince. The task of rounding them up is with the border patrol in large part. Photos of them on horseback with some kind of whip have been viral images.

    "We do not know who are the smugglers or who are the migrants," said the Border Patrol Chief.

    The government is deporting 'single adults' while allowing families and children to stay for their trials.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 17,2021
  • 13k Haitian migrants cross border into small town in Texas

    A few more thousand might still arrive. The town has only about 3x that many people itself. They're cooking food to feed the large group (mostly Haitians). They're living under a bridge. Looked like it was mostly black men, but there were a few black women and little children in there. It seems reporters were not allowed near them.

    Haiti is in a significant crisis right now (still).

    Losers from the we win while you lose strategy?

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 13,2021
  • Some say US is behind Guinea coup

    ... because Green Berets have been in Guinea since mid-July training a group of 100 Guineans in a special forces unit led by Colonel Doumbouya, a Guinean and French citizen who'd served in the Foreign Legion. Doumbouya is currently the leader of Guinea.

    The US gov initially downplayed involvement but after a phone vidoe came out on Social the US confirmed some parts but denied it implied support for the coup.

    There have been about 80 successful coups in sub-Saharan Africa in the past 40 years, some say.


    A tweet by someone:


     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 11,2021
  • Lavrov on US adventures over the past 20 years

    "We have seen it in Libya, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. ... Nothing good came out of the four military campaigns I mentioned. ... There has been a surge in terrorism, an unprecedented growth in drug trafficking. Illegal immigrants have been flooding Europe since NATO bombed the Libyan state to dust. ..."

  • Typical Afghanistan news on YT, Sept 11, 2021

    There's a lot of news on the US (and allies) in Afghanistan right now. I think maybe people almost forgot about Afghanistan, they got so used to it, but now with the sudden moves what is left is quite impressive. It's the 20-year anniversary of the World Trade Center event, which many people do not believe the official story. Documents are reported to be soon declassified by Biden.

    Image shows a news story about a base left by the US, and the comments show the general feeling on the events now.




     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 10,2021
  • Mike Wallace (MEP from Ireland) on Afghanistan, Sept 1 2021 in the European Parliament

    "Do you think we can learn the lessons without telling the truth about the last 20 years? The last 20 year war in Afghanistan is a lie. The Americans lied to their people. The Americans spent over $2.2t dollars, and over $2t of it went to private contractors. They used the war as a way of funneling US taxpayers money to private entities.

    "What did the EU do with our money? Where did it go? How much did the EU spend in Afghanistan in the 20 years? Apart from enriching the families connected to the government, what else did we do with it? How much evidence have you got of the infrastructure you kept talking about?

    "Before the Taliban took over, the number of Afghans living in poverty in Afghanistan has doubled since 2001. A third have no food. Half of them have no drinking water. And two-thirds have no electricity. Before the rise of the Taliban, who grew from US-and-Saudi-funded Mujahedeen, half of Afghan university students were women. 40% of the countries doctors were women. 70% of their teachers were women. 30% of their civil servants were women.

    "Look at the place now. We've helped to destroy it. Are we going to tell the truth about it? Or are we going to pretend, 'Ah, we were really doing loads for womens' rights and we were sorting things out, only things didn't work out right in the end'?

    "Did the EU people know what was going on, or not? And if you didn't know, why didn't you know? And is there anyone going to be held accountable for the amount of EU money that's been spent in that place, and you have nothing to show for it?"


    "La guerra en Afganistán es una mentira": discurso de Mick Wallace en el Parlamento Europeo - YT  
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 09,2021
  • Women activists and Taliban in Afghanistan

    Some news images of officials moving protesting women by using (looks like flogging-type) whips.

    Women's rights activists said they looked to the international community community to uphold their rights guaranteed by their religion.

    Western news has been carrying news the Taliban is 'beating' journalists and 'whipping' women protesters. However, women are still going to work and school (although there are reports that in some regions they might not be as much, and that university students are being segregated by sex, like they were before in the other types of schools).

    We don't have a clear picture of what's going on yet.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 07,2021
  • Afghanistan new PM

    Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, from Akhund tribe in the south, where many Taliban come from, was one of the founding members of the Taliban and headed the Rahbari shura leadership council.

    Supreme leader will be Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada, reportedly a reclusive person.
     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 31,2021
  • The more the Taliban become pragmatic, the more they're going to lose people, and that's what ISIS is counting on - Kamran Bokhari

    Taliban are now gearing into pragmatism because they have to govern.

    This is a fluidic battle space ... hardliners can become disillusioned very easily if Taliban start to make compromises on ideology.

    We saw this in Syria. There were multiple groups that were not ISIS but they lost a lot of fighters to ISIS over the years.

    There are always going to be people who sympathize with this project. - Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi

     
  • $9b in Afghan reserves held outside US

    Afghanistan is highly dependent on US and other countries. If the government meets what US and others want it to meet, US might release these foreign currency reserves. Some say they don't even have funds to pay government workers there.

    A lot of Afghani investors are also currently out of the country.

     
  • Coronavirus shift in thinking

    Just recently, the thinking seems to now be that everyone is going to get it, since vaccinated people are getting it.

    Shift in focus will now be towards preparing people to not get a severe case. The vaccinations are thought to prevent severe infection often.

    Dr John Campbell said the virus has a limited number of mutations possible, but Prof Pollard thinks more infections variants could come about.

     
  • A former aide of Osama Bin Laden, Muhammad Amin-ul-Haq, has reportedly returned to his native Nangarhar province for the first time in 20 years after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan.

    "He served as head of Bin Laden’s security in Tora Bora following the 2001 US-led invasion." - TRT

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 30,2021
  • Rocket strike near Kabul airport and reports of children dead

    A car was destroyed. No one officially claimed responsibility for the reported rocket attacks. People reported hearing gunfire afterwards. The report that 3 children died is from Afghan officials and also some people on the ground there said it.

  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 29,2021
  • Afghanistan Questions

    1. Zahir Shah made moves toward (Western style) civil rights, women in workplace, democracy, etc. Does that represent a significant strain in Afghani thought or culture (toward liberalization) or an outlier?

    2. Zahir Shah was not able (or willing) to return to the country after the coup (until 2002 under US occupation). What does that mean for opposition parties in Afghanistan?

    3. Will Afghan's strength against invasion forces (decentralized, strong belief) (Soviets couldn't negotiate/bargain with Mujahedeen, and had to fight with dozens of separate militias with distinct tactics and strategies) be tempered with modernization?

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 28,2021
  • Lots of reporting on who profited from the Afghan war

    Lockheed, General Dynamics, Ratheon, Northrop Grumman are reported on, since their stocks are up between a few hundred and a thousand (10x) percent since 2001, and most have military or ex-military on their boards.

    However, 10x over 20 years doesn't seem like such a big deal. Tech stocks are up more than that, and probably lots of regular stocks. Amazon is up 1700% since 2011, not 2001. Facebook and Apple are up 10x from their IPOs, too, from 2012 and 2011.

     
  • Two bombs at Kabul Airport

    Two spots just outside the airport, one at an entrance and another at the Baron hotel. A dozen US troops reportedly were killed and some civilians, I think.

    Biden: "For those who carried out this attack, as well as anyone who wishes American harm, know this: We will not forgive. We will not forget. We will hunt you down and make you pay."

    Biden is reportedly Catholic, though, so these words might sound a little strange.

    Some are saying Taliban, whose role it was as the government (for the past less than 2 weeks) to secure the airport, and now they're being questioned whether they're able to carry out that role, as if anyone can prevent that sort of attack.

    A Taliban spokesman said, "Killing innocent civilians is an act of terrorism that has to be condemned by the entire world. And as soon as the airport situation is figured out, and the foreign forces leave, hopefully we will not have such attacks anymore. It is--again--it is because of the presence of foreign forces that such attacks take place."

    Western countries have evac'ed over 100k people in the past little while.

    As a response to the the ariport bombing attacks, the US reported using a drone strike to kill some IS-K notables in another region. IS-K reportedly claimed responsibility for the airport bombing attacks. (Taliban said the US should have them before the US did this drone strike.)

    The US wouldn't identify who the IS-K dead were by name, only saying they were planning future attacks. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby:

    "I am not gonna talk about specific capabilities ISIS might have lost in this strike. They lost a planner and they lost a facilitator and they got one wounded. And the fact that two of these individuals are no longer walkin' on the face of the earth, that's a good thing. It's a good thing for the people of Afghanistan and it's a good thing for our troops and our forces at that airfield and I think I'm just gonna leave it there."

    Many people immediately raised doubts about these events, since they give such a convenient pretext for anything the US may want to do (including changing evac plans). We wait and see whether US will allow Afghanistan to have peace or a chance to try to have their country.

    Why would IS-K want to do it? Would they want US to not leave? Do they fear Taliban will be hard on them if Taliban are left to control the country?

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 27,2021
  • $2t is how much US spent on Afghanistan war

    $300m per day for 20 years.

    $800b in direct warfighting costs. $85b to train the Afghan army. $750m per year for Afghan army salaries.

    This money was borrowed as loans, reportedly. Cha-ching for those banks. "This country is unconquerable, you say? so we can just fight it indefinitely?" Thanks, taxpayers, we'll service those loans.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 26,2021
  • Zabiullah Mujahid, Taliban Spokesman, government of IAEA, in a TRT interview on One on One

    "We had considered appearing in front of the media if we survived, but we thought we'd be killed before our struggle ended, because we were under a lot of threats. For example, I had a phone, and there were American drones above me, ready to drop bombs. I faced many such dangers. So, we never imagined we would survive this long. I always believed we would succeed in our struggle and one day, rid Kabul and all of Afghanistan from the occupation forces. Afghanistan is only for Afghans. We always believed in this. But I never thought I'd live to see that day. I think God for keeping me alive, but I pray for him to fulfill my wish of martyrdom one day. For now, I think we have been given a chance to serve the people, to fulfill all the promises we made to Afghans, and to keep our word to them. We will work hard to find a way to solve people's problems, anywhere, anytime. We have to answer to God and the people."

    "I guess I had always thought I would be martyred in this war. I never thought I would live to see the revolution suceed. Because as I said before I was always in danger. I couldn't even switch my phone on for an hour because the Americans can easily track anyone on a cellular network and capture or kill them. I thought I'd be martyred that way. It was a very difficult position to be in but I was not afraid. I always wanted to be counted amongst the martyrs. But God had different plans for me. This is also one of his blessings, that he wants me to do good. And I hope we can achieve our goals. We always pray for martyrdom."

    "No one wants to live under the transgressions of an occupying force."

    "If we are terrorists why have we not killed anyone [in the 10 days since entering Kabul]? There is no terrorism here as you can see."

    "We were fighting against foreign occupiers and their puppet regime."

    "The Americans started this war. They attacked us, and got what they deserved. The Americans failed in their mission. The world has seen how they left Afghanistan in a failed state. The situation is not good for the United States. The United States destroyed its reputation in the eyes of the world. THe United States showed its real face to the world. We also saw what they did in Guantanamo and Bagram prisons. They claim to be defenders of human rights, but the world has seen the reality of these tall claims. We saw how the United States conducted itself during war. We have witnessed their reality first-hand."

    "How could they [the Americans] have controlled Afghanistan when they can't even control the airport?"

    "The Americans want Afghans to be dispossessed in refugee camps without a clear future. Thousands of people have been forced to leave without a clear future. Families are being torn apart. Fathers and sons separated."

    "This is a huge issue and hindrance for Afghanistan. Doctors, engineers, teachers, and scholars [fled Afghanistan]. They are the cream of Afghan society. Afghanistan has been in war for a long time. So we have very few skilled professionals. Our motherland needs these skilled professionals."

    "The British want Americans to fail. They want more war. Americans have made the most sacrifices compared to their allies. British political leaders want the war to continue. We remember British leader Tony Blair encouraging Americans to go to war with the Afghans in 2001, and left the Americans alone. ... War benefits no one, but if they want war, they will get war."

    "As I said before, Afghans will not submit to pressure by any country [regarding sanctions]. ... I think Afghanistan should form a diplomatic relation with the US. It's good to listen to one another and work out our differences to find solutions. They bombed us for 20 years. They kept putting our people in agony. Stop this cruelty. Our people have lost patience. We can solve our differences in a diplomatic way. There is no other way except this."

    "Over time, we observed how systems in different Afghan cities operate. We have returned with this knowledge to improve things."

    "... all those opposed to us--the police, the army, and others, have been safe. ... We have enemies here we fought for 20 years, but no one has been touched."

    "Amrullah Saleh [a politician who claimed the office of acting president when president Ghani fled] also says he wants to fight, but like his predecessor, he can't afford to go to war. He will fail. Anyone would. He should not risk the lives of ordinary Afghans. The people of Afghanistan don't want war. ..."

    "We have maintained that we want good relations with Turkey [the only Islamic NATO member] so they could share their immense experience with us, and similarly, if they could provide economic support, we would welcome it."

    "Pakistan's role in Afghanistan is that of a good neighbor. ... We do not stand by the asuumption that Pakistan has stood with us, or given us an ideology and support. This news is just not correct, and has been part of a propaganda for 20 years. It will be proven that Pakistan is our neighbor, nothing more. We want good relations with them. ... because they are our neighbors."

    "They have frozen our funds [$10b of Afghan reserves] despite the current situation. We request the United States to release our national funds and give Afghanistan the money it desperately needs. I say the general situation will get better."

    ---

    The same day Western news was plastered with 'an explosion at Kabul airport.' Reports have it 13 are dead, including 4 US servicemen (the first to die in the country in a while). The Biden Whitehouse called it a 'complex attack.' Experts say it will now be more difficult to withdraw by Aug 31 [the deadline, but news has for a week or more been asking whether that could be extended, seeming like the US wants to but the Taliban says no] and also more difficult to engage in some retaliatory military action 'against terrorist targets on the ground.' At least that is the line many Western media are publishing. I don't see how that makes sense. Why does Biden need to militarily respond to an attack on their occupation force after 20 years of fighting? IS claimed they did it, and Taliban condemned it.

    ---

    So Afghanistan now has a government that has been working very hard for 20 years, thinking about and testing ideas in their minds, living under constant possibility of death and accepting it, and believing in their goal, which they have been considering and refining, pondering questions of actions.

    Will they be allowed by the US and others to do whatever they intend to do?


    YT: Zabiullah Mujahid, Taliban Spokesman  
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 24,2021
  • Putin's criticism of Western policy towards fleeing Afghanis

    The West wants to relocate them to Afghanistan's neighboring countries. He said it was a security issue that directly affects Russia.

    'So, it's possible to send them to these other countries, our neighbors, without visas, but they don't want to take them in themselves without visas? It's a humiliating approach to this issue.'

  • Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

    ... is how the Taliban refer to their conquest

    Movement in the city: Cars drive around, people walk around (you could assume life as usual is continuing). Taliban ride around in pickup trucks with large guns. They say there is a general amnesty, everyone is forgiven, even militants and the Afghan army. Large military evacuations take place in big planes overhead. Taliban around the airfield area have reportedly announced a ban on Afghans from entering that area.

     

  • Some 'focussed protection' advocates signed this white paper.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 23,2021
  • Afghanistan and Vietnam, Assange 'endless war'

    Many over the past week or two since the Taliban's swift occupation of Kabul have looked at the saddening images of Afghanis attempting to board and hold onto fleeing US transport planes, some falling to their death, and comparing it to the US withdrawal from Vietnam, which produced similar scenes on the day of departure.

    'There are parallels in that it is the most extraordinary humiliation of the West. And the imagery is the same. But the total difference is the Americans were forced to leave South Vietnam. They were hemorrhaging lives. It was an incredibly toxic political issue. There were hundreds of thousands of people in the streets, demonstrating, demanding withdrawal. And it was one of the most costly interventions the Americans did. And they couldn't fight the North Vietnamese army. This is ... totally different. 2500 soldiers. Almost no casualties. Almost no cost. And a little bit of air support. They weren't driven out of the country. They could've remained indefinitely.' - British MP Rory Stewart, who has been involved in Afghanistan for decades

    I think people are a bit surprised and confused at the moment, given how quickly it seems to have happened (despite the months-long process), and are thinking about what it means for their assessment of America.

    The war was supposed to be so direly necessary, an existential threat, the most expensive overseas base ever, and, although very few US soldiers died (none in the past 18 months), suddenly it was just of no importance to the West, according to some critics.

    Many have also been referencing and republishing an old Assange interview in which he said the Americans never wanted the war to be won, but instead wanted an endless war to wash money out of the tax base in the US and Europe and through Afghanistan and back into the hands of the transnational security elite, etc. These voices also point to the recent Biden speech in which he 'reaffirmed his support for war' in saying they were pulling out of Afghanistan but were going to still be fighting other fights, and mentioned Somalia, Yemen, and Syria.

    I don't know but it sort of feels like it might have been a real turning point in American history. And also for the West by extension, as everyone was politically on that side of things and so their actions reflect on all the Western countries, I guess.

    The next time America wants to go to war, whatever reason it gives, who will believe them? What credibility or store of trust do they have left? With Afghanistan, is it a case where the people who wanted the war, whether for money profit or political cause or whatever other reason, got their way, but at the expense of America's last shreds of integrity? Will they find any allies to join them? nevermind the response of non-allies. Or perhaps the question is what new reason will it come up? The Soviets, the spread of Communism, the War on Drugs, Terrorism, ...

    Is the time in which America had the chance to lead the world (which started with its military heroism against aggressors and its creation of ideas like legal human and civil rights and national treaty alliances) over? And if it is over, is it because of a deeper issue, that perhaps it was impossible for it to be positive in a general sense, due to the accommodation within the system of individuals or small groups who wanted to abuse all others for whatever profit, and perhaps the idea of attempting leadership was seen as futile by those close enough to the center, and perhaps those who saw it in some sense wanted its end?

    On the other hand, this total loss of credibility of the US gov may finally embolden politicians at the state and local levels, as well as organizations like the National Guard, to take positions against them. or to take positions just generally more in favor of the general welfare and good, and to try to make some headway towards a nation with some integrity again. Afghanistan may come to serve as the example used why you must never let your government, even under the auspices of the greatest threats it wants to say, pass laws and treat citizens and nations in the way that has become common there in the past 20 years.

    Good follows evil. Evil has the ability to appear to us as good, which is why we participate in it, but once time passes it plays itself out and we see the fools we've been. It's said that in medieval days the greatest attribute a man could possess was a good memory. Perhaps a memory to be able to recall to the level of persuasion of ourselves and others a great number of these pairs.

    Another possibility is that the work is done. Not Afghanistan, but the general existential and political threats that perhaps existed in the 90s or 2000s with developing Islamic nations seem neutralized now. Iraq and Afghanistan and other nations, which alternatively could have risen to more power and organization, are now put in a place where they're not really seen as a military or political threat to the West or anyone else.

    Many people think there was a deal made between the Taliban and the US government, otherwise things wouldn't be going the way they're going.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 19,2021
  • Words used about Afghanistan

    Escape, to describe how the US left

    Walk over, to describe the Taliban's easy victory

    Face saving, to describe the US motivation

    Coward and priveleged, to describe exiled (ex) president Ashraf Ghani (who fled to UAE in a helicopter, reportedly with a lot of cash, which he denied taking large sums of cash)

     
  • Afghanistan questions

    Will there be a civil war or will Taliban go for a political settlement between the two longstanding groups (Taliban's Sharia followers VS liberal, marxist, democratic, more secular Islamist 'Afghan government' -- both groups nationalist)?

    Will Taliban attack across the Durand line into Pakistan (in Balochinstan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa), who they see as playing both sides for years (being a middle man and getting $$ for American involvement in Afghanistan against the Soviets while training Islamist fighters (Mujaheddin) and sheltering Taliban leaders after 911). Is there any chance of a Pakistan-Taliban reunion after their contentious history?

    Will Kabul become part of the Belt and Road (India does not want that)

    How will India deal with the strict Sunni Taliban? It's expected it will be difficult, despite longstanding good relations between the two

    How will China, Pakistan, India and Afghanistan fight among each other in the relative chaos after the US withdraws?

    What conflict will US enter/initiate next to continue their narrative as global savior, etc.?

    How will Taliban pursue their goal of an Islamic state?

    How many will leave as refugees?

    Will Taliban really be more lenient as they seem to be saying, and not seek revenge for those they used to compete against? Will they really allow women more rights? Right now many people are too afraid to even leave their houses, while others are out on the streets taking photos and shaking hands with Taliban (moreso young people).

    How will any Taliban possibly take over positions such as governorships, etc., without any training, although they are currently taking lots of photos in these offices? (On the other hand, Afghans hate their now-fled president and their old government for its corruption and incompetence).

    Which countries will (which one could) recognize Taliban when it means they will go into the blacklist of the FATF? Will even China to it?

    How much support does Taliban really have in villages (it's thought they have lots in rural areas) and cities? They offer security, will they be able to provide it meaningfully? Will anyone try to disrupt their ability to deliver this to people.

    Did the governments involved already come to an agreement before the withdrawal?


    India com: If Taliban Kills me, Will Consider it my 'Seva'
     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 18,2021
  • China repositions government philosophy

    Before, China was allowing some individuals to 'get rich first' with big companies, but now is shifting to 'proserity for all.'

    It's expected the CCP will have more say in companies and companies will have to fall in line.

    Xi recently said people should shun 'unreasonable' or 'excessive' income, and that the rich should 'give back to society more.'

    This means lower education costs, caps on the commission ride share companies can take (done through transport ministry) to keep transportation costs lower, and higher wages for workers.

    China is also going to do a 'consumer data' data privacy internet bill.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 17,2021
  • China '3 mountains'

    Education, health care, and property. These are burdens for the common Chinese person.

    China has announced some new areas for new regulations: Education tech, internet, property, and food delivery. Those four.

    Also e-cigs, growth hormones, liquor and online insurance.

    It's the first time any of these sectors have been regulated in China.

    Next year is an election year, and commenters say China sees the big companies that are profiting in these sectors as being in the way of the government reaching its goal of common prosperity and elimination of social unrest.

     
  • Material worth of Afghanistan

    More than $3t of minerals (other, older report $1t), one province, Ghanzi, has $1t lithium deposit (largest in world). Estimates.

    China will fill the vacuum left by the US withdrawal. China has already said they will recognize the Taliban as the official government.

    Some have pointed out there may be a fundamental difference in the ability/willingness of China (versus the US) to deal with Afghanistan, considering possible human rights issues.

    Afghanistan's eastern arm borders Xinjiang. What will be the Taliban's response to that region? While they are fellow Muslims, many have raised a point that many of the groups, Taliban or otherwise, may be to a significant degree interested in political warmongering for control of wealth/resources. Others have raised the point that China may attempt to do it's familiar debt-trap diplomacy (if that is really a thing).

    Right now about 85% of the processing of Afghanistan's rare earth minerals is owned by China, who got ahead of the US decades ago (US playing catchup in this) when they saw the future in this business. Will China do like they did and do in Congo, where they give the local government a big cut while they extract the minerals and ship them to China for processing. This might solve the Taliban's supposed challenges in making money off their mineral wealth due to lack of infrastructure (and perhaps political sanctions?). A Taliban protectorate for Chinese mining zones has been suggested.

    Afghanistan is highly dependent on foreign aid and that is expected to remain the case. IMF funds reserved for the country are expected to remain so.

    Will some moralizing nations refuse to accept rare earth minerals from countries whose policies (human rights, aggressive threats) they disapprove of, as was done in South Africa?

      
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 06,2021
  • Venezuela: opposing parties to meet

    ... Maduro and Guaido will meet in Mexico, they say, to try to resolve things.

    Guiado's power has waned over the past years, and his popularity has sunk, and international governments are starting to turn away from their recognition of him as leader. It didn't happen that they were able to get Maduro out of power. The US and some other countries want 'free and fair elections' in Venezuela, which would give a winner validity in international eyes.

    Maybe Guiado wants to meet just to ensure his party's survival, some have commented.

    All parties are unpopular with the people in Venezuela.

  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 27,2021
  • China has 400m in what they call their middle class

    ... and 1b in poverty.

    China has to find a way to stop social unrest through government, it is thought, when the gap between haves and have-nots increases too much.

    The poor have to pay more for basic staples, energy, and middle class can't move up because asset prices are moving quickly.

     
  • Chinese government aiming at wealth

    The CCP has been cracking down on all fast-growing sectors. Any sector or company with large growth over the past years.

    They don't want too much wealth accumulation or wealth inequality, reportedly. They're seeking an equality in the society.

    It makes it more difficult for investors, because they don't know what to price in to their estimates.

    No one knows what other regulations will be coming from the party.

    The thing started with Ant group a few months ago. Recently, the whole tutoring sector. Some investors think the next sector might be health care. Large US investors are starting to pull out of investment in China, it has been reported.

    'The Chinese party has shown you who they are and what they care about,' said Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital, who thinks China is hoping people will stop investing in Chinese companies in the US and start investing in Chinese companies in Hong Kong, as China says HK will adjust it's listing requirements to make it easier for Chinese companies to list there.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 25,2021
  • Tajikistan holds nationwide military drills in face of emergent Taliban

    #Afghanistan #Taliban #Tajikistan
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 13,2021
  • Biggest riots in S Africa in years (since Apartheid maybe)

    High unemployment. Dissatisfaction with political leaders. But the riots erupted when former president (until 2018) Zuma started a 15-month prison sentence for contempt of court after refusing to appear at a corruption inquiry. The outrage by his supporters was compounded by anger over poverty and inequality.

    Shops, malls, warehouses completely ransacked. 72 reported dead (but I didn't hear how - I mean, were some just already enemies, etc.?).

    'It's over. It's over,' said one shop owner. 'I've got overheads. I owe banks money.'

    The government sent military (2000 soldiers, considered a small number) to some areas as police struggled. Sometimes police are just standing by as the looting goes on, and analysts say this has to do with the history of the ANC government and that they don't want to be seen shooting at black S Africans. Some owners, armed, tried to quell the looting themselves. Some are criticizing the government for not acting on the riots soon enough.

    Commenters alluded to a racial element, but none seemed willing to talk about that issue.

    They may now have food shortages due to the riots.

    The ANC government is saying people working for Zuma may be stoking the rioters.

    A random commenter said this: 'Learn from the Koreans in the LA Riots, 2 guys on the roof with sub machine gun and rifle. 3 guys on ground blocking door with Shotguns and pistols. The police are not going to help when the riots get out of control. No one died and their stores and markets were all saved.'

    But some commenters from within S Africa replied that it wasn't easy to get guns in S Africa and the authorities there 'are trying to remove the clause that allows for the purchase of firearms for self defence purposes from The Firearms Control Act.'

    None of the commenters from S Africa who large news sites tried to interview could comment anything of value, just repeat a few criticisms and restate obvious social conditions, and generally had to be cut off by the interviewing journalists.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 11,2021
  • Maybe 1b shellfish died off Canadian shores due to June heat

    Highest recorded June temps.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 09,2021
  • UAE princess capture helped by FBI, says USA Today investigation

    Reportedly, they gave the UAE gov the geolocation of Princess Sheikha Latifa's yacht as she fled the kingdom in 2018, after getting it from a US internet provider.

    Reports have it the FBI was misled by the UAE, that they had been told she was kidnapped.

    The US org might have broken protocol to do this, not first subpoenaing the provider.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 08,2021
  • Last US troops leave Bagram Airfield in the night

    ... without telling the new Afghan commander.

    The base, about an hour away from Kabul, has made headlines over the years for horrible accounts of the US forces there torturing Afghanis, sometimes to death.

    The Afghan soldiers now guarding the base have said they look to the government and the village to support them with resources. 'the Americans destroyed everything here.' Much of the supplies (boots, exercise machines - The Americans took their sophisticated modern military tools) left by the troops has made it's way to scrapyards and second-hand shops.

    Some have said they are glad the Americans left, that now Afghanistan can have peace, which the Americans didn't bring.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 07,2021
  • Suez Canal blocking ship released from Egypt's Canal Authority after agreeing to $1b fee.

    Six days the ship (Ever Given) blocked traffic. The traffic was valued at $10b per day. When the Suez Canal Authority dislodged the vessel, it held it until terms could be arranged, given the costs to the port itself (SCA eventually claimed it was around $550m, including costs to dislodge, various expenses, and financial damages).

    This will be billed to the ship's owners and insurers.

  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 03,2021
  • African Islamist groups on rise

    ... in several countries across the Sahel and some other countries.

    Some analysts say the countries facing an IS threat are those with weak central governments.

    "Local populations are dissatisfied with how governments are delivering. Democracy has not worked for populations in that part of the country." : Bulama Bukarti, Senior Africa Analyst, Tony Blair Inst., who said that if the governments continue to not fund education and other services to create a more civil society, it will continue to be easy for extremist groups to exploit socioeconomic grievances to recruit young people into violence.

    Does it help or hurt, though, to keep calling these groups 'terrorists'? Are they not just non-government military groups?

  • Afghanistan after America

    Now it's the Afghan govt versus the Taliban, which is reported to be retaking ground, on the offensive. Since Biden announced the US's complete withdrawal a couple months ago, Taliban took about 1/4 (127, 10 of those again retaken by the Afghan military) of the districts of Afghanistan, where they are implementing Sharia and blocking media.

    Last US troops leave Sept 1 (the last 650 that remain, contra to the Doha agreement, after most of the 4000-strong force left), and then we'll really see what Taliban will do.

    "This land belongs to you and us," said an Afghan soldier, "The Russians were here and they left. Then the Americans came and now they have left. This country is ours, and we will protect it even without pay or equipment."

    Reports are that the Taliban aren't willing to go sit at the negotiating table, where Afghan govt negotiators are waiting.

    There are lineups at passport offices, people wanting to leave, remembering the 90s.
     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 01,2021
  • Starvation in Madagascar

    Worst drought in 40 years. Not enough rain again this year for a good harvest next season.

    People dying, skinny starving children. The lives of people based around looking for cactus leaves, to clean and eat, the only source of nutrition for many.

    Not much green land left. Dust.

    World Food Programme partnered with the Madagascar govt to do at least some aid.


     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 30,2021
  • Rumsfeld died, age 88

    Forum boards were a list of comments that were either negative and critical of the harms he is believed to have caused, or dismissive or joking. I read through them and didn't see any on the other side of the fence.

  • Tigray forces reportedly gaining ground, pushing out Ethiopian government forces

    They took the regional capital, Mekele.

    The conflict is now in its eighth month. Thousands have died. Hundreds of thousands have fled. Many accusations of war crimes (Western definition). Dubious role of UN. Withdrawal of Eritrean forces towards north and south.

    Tigrayans celebrated in the streets. Motor parades of tuk-tuks and toyotas with people piled to overflowing, flags.

    Amnesty warned there may be reprisals against civilians by all involved parties to the conflict.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 29,2021
  • US bombing in Iraq again

    ... without asking Congress, the Whitehouse bombed some targets (Kitab Hezbollah and Kitab Saeed Ashahada) on both sides of the Iraq-Syria border.

    The act may fall under jurisdiction that requires authorization under War Powers, but the White House didn't seek that from Congress.

    The DoD said they targeted Iran-backed militias who had used UAVs against US personnel and facilities in Iraq.

    Iraq's military condemned the act, saying it was a blatant violation of Iraqi sovereignty and national security.

    The popular mobilization forces are part of Iraq's security structure, so the US did bomb an ally, analysts say, although the US said those groups had attacked US targets first.

    Kitab Saeed Ashahada announced an open war again US targets in Iraq as a response.

    Biden's second use of military force.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 26,2021
  • Taliban taking new ground, reportedly

  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 22,2021
  • West's continued use of sanctions has less effect, according to Prof at U of South-Eastern Norway Glenn Diesen

    ... as the international system becomes more multi-polar. For example, Belarus, recently sanctioned by the EU for its human rights violations (following their grounding of a plane to arrest a Belarussian blogger), has other options in Russia. The US also sanctioned Myanmar following the coup, but they also have access to China and Russia.

    The hope with sanctions is that by undermining the whole economy of a country the population made to suffer will put pressure on their government to change. It is considered by some to have worked on Iran following the first Gulf War. There are also economic consequences in other countries including the one doing the sanctioning, such as in the US where the price of gas is driven up in line with sanctions on Iran. Thereby, such sanctions can end up helping other countries that may not be allies. It can also lead to negative consequences for the sanctioning country when it imposes sanctions on other countries for things it also does but expects to not be criticized for (many have pointed out that the US and EU also grounded a plane in 2014 to try to aprehend Edward Snowden - Austria grounded the plane from its airspace).

    The use of longlasting or permanent sanctions, especially when the sanctioned country has little ability to make concessions, it just leads to the sanctioned country learning to live without the countries that imposes the sanctions, according to Diesen.

    Anti-Russian sanctions following Crimea and Ukraine in 2014 didn't lead to Russia capitulating to the West or destroying the Russian economy. Russia rewired its economy to the East, forming a strategic partnership with China, reducing its vulnerability by cutting exposure to Western industries, tech, transportation corridors, banks, payment systems. Same with Iran. And now Belarus.

    #Belarus #Russia #Sanctions 
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 12,2021
  • There's talk about making Puerto Rico the 51st US state
     
  • May, 2021
  • May 26,2021
  • Belarus president causes Ryanair flight to land to arrest opposition activist

    Considered the most brazen act from an Eastern European regime in a long time, President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus had a the plane tailed by a fighter jet, and under the pretense of a bomb threat caused the plane to divert from its course (Greece to Lithuania) and land in Minsk.

    No explosives were found but they arrested
    Roman Protasevich, who is seen as taking on the role of a sort of hero in recent anti-government protests through a Telegram channel.

    The country has him on charges of terrorism for his blogging on what the State calls extremist organization, and protest organizing, which the state refers to as organizing mass riots and enticing social hatred, it seems. Western powers are now calling Belarus' act one of 'State terrorism.'

    The EU wants to react strongly, but people wonder how they can do so. Some considerations that might hurt the Belarusian regime include blocking Belarus from the international banking system, in cooperation with the US. They could sanction state companies that support the Belarusian regime. They could stop oil imports and exports--the EU is the second-biggest trade partner of Belarus after Russia.

    Lukashenko said it was his country’s 'sovereign right' to arrest the activist: 'Let his numerous Western patrons answer this question: Which intelligence services did this individual work for? Not only him but his accomplice as well.'

    Belarus later released videos of Protasevich and his girlfriend in custody confessing to crimes against the state. He said the activist had moved on from reporting solely on Belarus to 'working full out against Russia, thus showing the true goal of western strategists. ... Their goal is to dissolve the Belarusian people and move on to smothering their arch-enemy: the Russian.'

    Lukashenko commented on the bomb threat: 'Was Chernobyl not enough?, If there was a bomb on board the plane and terrorists wanted to blow it up, we couldn’t really have helped. But I couldn’t let the plane fall on our people’s heads.'

    Belarusian authorities also arrested 14 staff from the organization Protasevich worked for in a tax evasion case. There were reports of numerous incidents of violence against journalists in the country.

    According to Reuters, 'a day after Protasevich's arrest, the government introduced new measures to regulate media activities, including a blanket ban on covering protests or publishing opinion polls without prior authorization from the government.'

    Many people, not least of all Russian journalists, have pointed out that in 2013 the USA and EU countries forced a Bolivian plane--carrying that country's president Evo Morales--to land in Austria (it was en route from Moscow to Bolivia after a summit) for 13 hours because they thought fugitive US spy agency contractor Edward Snowden might be on board, who was charged with conveying classified information to an unauthorized party, disclosing communications intelligence information, and theft of government property.

    The weekend following the incident, Lukashenko visited Putin and video footage was published of the two enjoying conversation and some laughs and dining together with Lukashenko's son on a yacht in the Black Sea in Sochi. During a televised conference between the two, Putin also brought up the 2013 incident of Morales' plane, laughing.

    #Terrorism #Lithuania #FreeSpeech #press #EdwardSnowden

     
  • May, 2021
  • May 01,2021
  • 400 people moving to Dallas every day

    Other hot real estate markets right now include Phoenix, Austin, and Atlanta.

    Line up to buy and buy as soon you can, with prices for new homes less than for old homes for the first time in 15 years due to inflated building costs (lumber notably up 400% this year), although different from 15 years ago buyers are actually qualified to buy.

     
  • EU Parliament threatens Russian oil sector

    The EP, responding to Russian military buildups on the Ukraine border, passed a resolution that "demands that Russia immediately end the practice of unjustified military build-ups targeted at threatening its neighbors."

    The EU stated that other countries should supply more arms to Ukraine, and threatened that if Russia invaded Ukraine the EU "imports of oil and gas from Russia to the EU be immediately stopped, while Russia should be excluded from the SWIFT payment system, and all assets in the EU of oligarchs close to the Russian authorities and their families in the EU need to be frozen and their visas cancelled."

    Russia responded by saying it was ready to be shut off from Swift.

    SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) is a transaction network that connect thousands of banks in over 200 countries. Russia's central bank has its own transaction network, SPFS (System for Transfer of Financial Messages) but outside of Russia only 8 banks use it.
    "demands that Russia immediately end the practice of unjustified military build-ups targeted at threatening its neighbours."

    Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/world/russian-aggression-ep-resolution-proposes-switching-off-swift-for-russia-if-kremling-invades-ukraine-11406190.html
    It also "demands that Russia immediately end the practice of unjustified military build-ups targeted at threatening its neighbours."

    Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/world/russian-aggression-ep-resolution-proposes-switching-off-swift-for-russia-if-kremling-invades-ukraine-11406190.html
    It also "demands that Russia immediately end the practice of unjustified military build-ups targeted at threatening its neighbours."

    Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/world/russian-aggression-ep-resolution-proposes-switching-off-swift-for-russia-if-kremling-invades-ukraine-11406190.html

     
  • Apr, 2021
  • Apr 30,2021
  • Burkina Faso's electric power grid

    Citizens there increasingly have access to electricity, up from 18% to 45% in the past 5 years, and power outages have been reduced from regular multi-hour outages to ones lasting about an hour.

    The country gets 65% of it's power from Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana, but it is moving towards energy independence with large fields of solar panels in the desert. It expects the investments it is making now in solar will cause it to become 'completely powered' by solar in the coming years.

    #BurkinaFaso #Energy
  • China's population to decline, introduces 3-child policy

    For the first time since Mao's Cultural Revolution 50 years ago, China's 1.4b people may decline, according to some calculations. China denies that it has reached its peak but says it might come in the coming few years. [FT]

    The 'One Child Policy' was in effect for 35 years until it was ended in 2015. After lifting the limit to two, China saw a small baby boom in the same year but then it started to decline again. Commentators noted that China is finding it is easier to cause citizens to have less babies than more, particularly since in the competitive labor market families often prefer to put all their resources behind making one child succeed rather than splitting resources up.

    China has now lifted the limit to three, but since lifting it to two didn't do much, people don't expect the 3-child policy will cause a dramatic boom. Some think the government will now incentivize or pressure citizens to have more children.

    The issue China faces is that they are now going to be facing an aging population, but without having reached their desired development level so that wages will be as high as Western countries and better able to support that type of population.

    There is also talk of a shortage of child-bearing age women there.

    But what might be most important is that Chinese men can't afford houses, and it's been reported no one will marry them without one.

    Chinese women currently have 1.3 children each. You need 2.1 to sustain population levels.

    India is a close second for the largest population, with 1.38b, but their population is expected to continue increasing.
     

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    US Senator Welch votes against sending money to Israel to support Gaza bombing campaign - YouTube
    Biden delivers remarks on Senate passage of the bipartisan supplemental agreement - 2/13/24 - YouTube

    Biden blasts Trump for “un-American” NATO remarks, highlights urgency of $95B aid bill - YouTube

    ArriveCAN: Reporters who exposed COVID-19 app discuss controversy | Power Play with Vassy Kapelos - YouTube
    4 person team. $250m in contracts since 2015.
    ‘Two guys, the work from home. They have no office.’ ‘Neither of them do any IT work at all.’

    Trump "hush money" case to be 1st criminal trial of a former U.S. president - YouTube

    Javier Milei delivers Argentina's first monthly budget surplus in 12 years - YouTube

    CBC News - YouTube
    #Immigration
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024
  • Tokyo gets US CDC office as Japan strengthens own responsesーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS - YouTube

    Biden campaign joins TikTok - YouTube

    Cost of ArriveCan unknown due to 'glaring disregard' of record-keeping, AG finds - YouTube
    15 years ago people couldn't get accurate immigration stats because the government (Harper at that time I think) changed how they classified people, obscuring the demographics beyond usefulness.

    Total cost of ArriveCan app 'impossible to determine,' AG finds - YouTube



  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024
  • Ex-spymasters warn of “over-protection” in Canada's security culture - YouTube
    Most of what they've found remains hidden from public.

    Russia knows how to set up a puppet government, and knows how to tell a puppet government what to do. Dunetsk, Luhansk. They for many years considered themselves independent countries, now folded into Russia. Essentially be traitors in the eyes of other Ukrainians and just basically run the country.


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • Texas governor going against Biden and saying Texas is being invaded (border crossing from Mexico) (and Biden has not fulfiled Article 4.4 to protect the states and has triggered Article 1.10.3 and Texas as a state has a right of self defense. Public by a huge majority wants this (what Abbot wants), but Gov Abbot may lose in court (to a solicitor general sent by Biden to go against him). So Abbot might ‘become a national hero’ and what would the effect be on opinion of courts? ‘Biden ‘actively fighting Texas on this when Texas just seems to be trying to reinstate a border.’ ‘From failing to do his duty to actual sabotage’ (cutting wires). Sacks.
    #Texas #Constitution

    Will this move already, but more so if it goes further, cause Texans and other states to in law and in politics be bolder in independent views rather than playing along with the Federal program?

    New immigrants vote Democrat. Undocumented immigrants said to be (Tucker) 22m, not the reported 11m. Dems want to give them voting rights.

    Republicans are neocons and ‘want to go to war’ but Trump and RFK are against illegal immigration and against foreign wars, and they're crushing it in the polls, because Americans also don't want illegal immigration or to be in foreign wars, in the majority.

    LILLEY UNLEASHED: UNRWA part of the problem in Gaza - YouTube

    Farmer protests: Armoured police vehicles block highway as tractors push to reach Paris - YouTube

    ‘Demand An Answer’: Amid Mass Firefighter Resignation, Stanley Town Officials Say Little - YouTube

    FBI issues dramatic public warning: Chinese hackers are preparing to 'wreak havoc' on the US - YouTube (CNN)

    'Throw 'em in jail': Ford calls for changes to criminal code - YouTube
    He wants us to believe people are flying in for 2 weeks to steal cars?

    Dr. Jordan Peterson: I've been sentenced to re-education and I'll fight back - YouTube (Fox)

    DARPA a government agency that pays for itself - Samo
    Possibly you could have gotten the same technologies out of other institutions without DARPA.
    DOD used to be much better at declassifying technologies. Turning it over to their contractors.
    As soon as you demonstrate the viability of a technology, others will reverse engineer it and make generic or competitors.
    DARPA has limited terms for program managers. With a few bil, 220 people, an institution that doesn't really owe anyone that much. You might as well do something great with it. If it was a permanent post, you would probably build a small beurocratic empire with the money. ‘Term limits.’
    Match and tailor the appropriate amount of funding. Overfunding can be as detrimental as underfunding. Encourage a situation where you're not producing a patronage network. A reaccuring budget is worse than one-off funding. Demonstrations of viabilities. Autonomy and ability to liase between departments. Can fix vaious communication gaps that naturally exist.
    The pay at DARPA is much lower than private sector, so the people who will go there don't necesarily want just to make money. Maybe they want to advance technology. The reputation of excellence. A tour of duty at DARPA. A positive credential to say they worked at DARPA. Opposite of saying they worked at MIT or Google.
    Politically precarious. Growing restrictions on it for decades. Political and military leaders may fail to understand why it works at all. Or they might understand only that it works but not why, and may form it in ways that blunt it, to serve their own priorities.
    NASA and military have a stake with factories etc in every state. You have to talk to them to reduce funding.
    Is DARPA ‘the last tree standing in the forest'? - Samo.
    Because it built reputation, people were actually proud of it.
    DARPA is enabling the big budgets of other organizations to continue.
    The profit motive, you must always inflate costs to justify more funding, if you work for the government.
    Governments can't fire their employees easily.
    Come into government, and complete a competing body that does the same thing as a big body but cheaper. There's a political cost but you have to overcome that with a political benefit. ‘We don’t need (old) agency. I'm going to cut (old) agency.' Especially if it's staffed with political enemies.
    We've come to view job creation as an end in iteself, and this is fairly destructive.
    Government officials tend to try to make themselves unfireable.
    We could have a higher quality civil service. Can fire half the civil servants and pay the other half double, and it'd be more efficient.
    Government could create more options of agencies to use. Between two options we'll usually chose the best.
    Reduce the budget for medicaid and instead let the consumer spend that amount (20k or 50k) on what they want. Because then the consumer thing would work.
    Retire large defense conglomerates.
    NASA spending incubated SpaceX.
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 30,2024


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 26,2024
  • If you look at the point in the past 50 years where America had the most challenges, the weakest leadership, 2024 might be one of China's strike points.

    "It's An INVASION" - Immigation Is Officially The #1 Issue For Voters - YouTube
    About 15 or 20 years after it because the obvious issue to the substantial minority of thinkers.

    Arizona GOP chairman Jeff DeWit resigns amid bribe allegations involving Kari Lake - YouTube

    'These [Five Eyes, or US Canada Aus NZ UK) are not separate governments. They are one government.' - Tucker. What defines the boundaries of a government?

    China may in the future be ruled by lawyers (like the US now) instead of peasants fairly ruthless politicians plus some educated engineers, because of where virtued classes are coming from (it's valued as virtue siganalling coming from Harvard or MIT). Samo. Educated in universities rather than political circles.
    Both China and US are gerontocratic. A generation war aspect. But China is homogenous.
    If you have econ conditions where a college degree is most valuable, and women do better at college, and the default idiology of the college is somewhat feminist, you can have diverging politics then between men and women. Samo. So if China had woke, it would probably be gender-focussed rather than race. ‘The rise of Chinese feminism’. ‘Actually low fertility rates are the fault of patriarchy because they violated the autonomy of womens bodies by forcing abortions on them during the one-child policy’ could be a 10 years from now slogan. ‘As a result there are not enough of us women.’ China doesn't have many women top government officials or CEOs. They do have, like Iran has, many women in STEM, women do well in hard sciences. Lots are educated as engineers.
    Along pathological lines like in SKorea, could happen in China?
    #China

    Might see greater respect for laywers in China. Maybe even for journalists, who also work with words.
    Shift from tech founders (who are bootstrap peasants) to more educated people, a possible negative for the country.
    Chinese Harvard will dominate. When universities as such are empowered.
    The difference between the American student and the Chinese student won't be so great. Chinese universities prestige is currently rising. Less of the brightest students will go to USA.
    China's schools may also then degrade, hardening into disfunction, where credentials are divorced from real competance, and the government will become incompetent.
    #China
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • ‘95% Sure’ Bitcoin ETF to Trade On Thursday: Valkyrie CEO - YouTube
    Is this because Bitcoin was invested in by large banking/401/whatever firms, which means politicians themselves are invested in it and will make money if it's approved and lose money if it's not?

    Florida Surgeon General calls for halt to COVID-19 vaccine, citing possible cancer risks - YouTube (FOX)

    Red Sea Latest: US Redesignates Houthis as Terrorists - YouTube
    A few other nations designated unliked groups terrorists this week, too. I think an asian nation of Iran or something.

    Dimon had some nice things to say publicly about Trump at Davos. Does this reflect the now visible probability Trump will win primaries and then the general election? Trump won I think Iowa the other day.

    What the DeepState fears, Jones said, is (if there was allowed an action by citizens etc to carry out something like border security) a coalition of good governors, good AGs giving them the good findings that they could indeed do that, and then declaring emergencies in the states and then a coalition among some states to do that, and then orders to police and everyone else not do sanctuary cities.

    Texas is now sort of purple with the influx from Cali. Jones. Decline of mom and pops. Illegal refugees everywhere.

    2 Polish politicians arrested.
    The president had pardoned people who were not yet sentences (so how do you pardon them?).

    Haier Attacks Home Assistant, Destroys Open Source Project: NEVER Buy Their Air Conditioners! - YouTube (Rossmann)
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08,2024
  • SBF's Political Donation Charges DROPPED: Is This a “Cover-Up”?? Second Trial Canceled - YouTube

    New York City looks to amend 'right to shelter' rule as it struggles to house migrants - YouTube

    Can America depart from the 2-party system this year? Former/current party supporters who no longer want to support their party, how many people do you know like this?

    US's Biden visited UAE to try to talk them into sellng oil in USD not Yuan and not use Chinese tech (US will help SA develop a nuclear program in return and protect them). Putin recently visited and got a warm welcome and a parade or something. US trying to turn Putin into global pariah not working (said Sacks) because of hows he's defeating the Collective West in Ukraine. He's gotten cache in other places. How tired is the world of US influence?

    Koch's biggest spender in Republican party, maybe.

    Chicago leaders demand help from White House to deal with surge of migrants in city - YouTube

    McDonald's CEO warns of hit from boycotts | BBC News - YouTube
    Middle East.

    Doctors unionize as healthcare services are consolidated into corporate systems - YouTube
    71% of Americans currently approve of unions, highest number since the 60s.


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 02,2024
  • Lots of 3rd party candidates. RFK left Dems, running indy, most popular candidate at the moment. Vivek.

    Lots of Americans interested in a 3rd party. The left and right so far to their ends, rooted in identity politics. A third party lacks a good name.
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023
  • JUST IN: Matt Gaetz Asks DEA Chief Point Blank Why Marijuana Is Still Classified A Schedule 1 Drug - YouTube

    New drink container tax - YouTube


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • ARGENTINA | Anuncian medidas económicas de emergencia | EL PAÍS - YouTube
    A government telling the truth, strange? ‘When I was young there were always candidates who tried to explain this, but they never received more than 5 ot 6% of the vote.’ #Argentina

    The government has always been one of the main focuses of corruption and ‘...con nosotros eso se termina.’

    It seems it's often been said that the Latin countries yes sometimes have these politicians who come along and they seem so revolutionary for something that strikes many as better, but for whatever reason the Latin countries never succeed in this. Or perhaps that's false, and the Latin countries with their occasional standout politicians will lead everyone else in politics.

    No protection against death - YouTube
    The fourth dose caused a 3-month reduction (like 20%) in infections, but after that period that group had more infections (ie could we say the vaccine causes more infections?).

    Argentina's new government reverses decision to join BRICS - YouTube
    #BRICS
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 12,2023
  • American Fascism And The Groomer Panic - YouTube
    Trans women. Florida. ‘Anti-trans laws’? Tracking rhetoric.

    Jan5, those charges were 87% were not in an organized militant group. Many were there with friends and family. 2/3 were over 35 years old. 14% of those charged were business owners. 30% were white collar workers.

    Over half of Republicans believe voter fraud claims, reportedly. (Forbes though)

    1/4 of Republicans sympathize with Qanon (NYT).

    The replacement of native Americans with more obediente foreigners. ‘Great Replacement theory’.

    Great Replacement was most significant trigger in converting people who already believed the election was stolen into people that believe they should do insurrectionist violence to reinstate Trump, reportedly.

    Failures of the neoliberal era.

    JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon blasts crypto, tells Senate he would ‘close it down’: CNBC Crypto World - YouTube

    Growing evidence of Hamas’ sexual crimes against women during attack, Israeli investigators say - YouTube

    Why Is There So Much Right-Wing Media? - YouTube

    Milei declara el fin de la "decadencia" argentina y promete un duro camino a la recuperación - YouTube
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3S3X_Bzlczk

    In a recall election, they voted out the entire council and the guy who raised the question was like, ‘"I didn’t understant this at all, so I'm gonna run. I'M gonna run. If not me, who?' And he ran. And he's up there now. So that's one of the greatest examples of democracy in action." - Lehto

    Adams Township, Michigan.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gyHc6nzL2M

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHWzltnZ00Y

    Wants dolarization. And to close their Central Bank.

    Surprise win.

    Binance, largest crypto exchange, still operating, but charges and guilty pleas for top brass for disguising information, including payments that had something to do with Hamas. So current Israel-Palestine action being employed here in banking controls.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkNokHZGBkc

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F69EoY8Wk5w

  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • NO ONE wants the COVID19 Booster | CDC reports 3% Uptake | CDC and FDA have failed America - YouTube 
  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • Musk went to visit Eagle Pass, Texas, the site of thousands of mostly Venezuelan young male migrants entering the US. Among the most frequent comments were about him doing so before either the President or Vice President. He said he wanted to see for himself what was going on there.

    ‘Government by crisis.’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwHXExbii0k

    Is that an appropriate characterization?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptPqhVoL_dc

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 25,2023

  • #Ideas

    "Actually, offering direct cash assistance is extremely effective in getting children (adolescents) to react to the support measures. It even reaches in the blind spots.


    ... because the de facto officials in Niger ‘no longer want to fight terrorism' France said.

    ?Perhaps admitting it can't put the democratically elected pres France likes into power, and has lost its influence in the region, and can't alter the politics in the region?

    #France #Africa #Colonialism

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 18,2023
  • Elon Musk's Starlink cutoff controversy | Quick Take | GZERO Media - YouTube 

    ‘Great politicians say what they need to win. And then, once they’re elected, all bets are off. The goal of running for president is ... just to win.' - Shkreli


    UAW withholds their endorsement for Biden amid historic strikes - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04,2023

  • First US president to be charged with a crime. Now not just Israel and African countries, but US also does this.

    Rico-style case. Racketeering, a crime often charged against mobsters, against 19 defendants including Giuliani (who as a prosecuter also did Rico-cases, sometimes against lawyers). They're

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhDkKWCUBRk

    being fingerprinted and mugshotted (photos that will make news around the world) and will be put into this big prison house where 6 people have died last year.

    The aggreived party is the state of Georgia. Interfering in how a state conducts itself in its elections. 2020.


    Trump called it ‘election interference.'



    Less than a day and clothing designers started using the mug shot. When your president's are treated as criminals, do people as strongly avoid the possibllity that they could become criminals? (Speaking of the moral condemnation side of criminalizing, not the deprivation/suffering side.)


    Pfizer claims no one was forced to get the Jab - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023
  • Argentina’s leading presidential candidate Javier Milei pledges to close the country's central bank - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 14,2023
  • Ecuador: Presidential candidate shot dead at campaign event | DW News - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 03,2023
  • China's Xi Vows to Protect Foreign Investors’ Interests - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 17,2023
  • Charm offensive against China? "CEOs serving as diplomats."

    But “no replacement for government to government relations and official diplomacy"?
  • Presidente de China promete apoyo firme a Honduras, que rompió vínculos con Taiwán | AFP - YouTube 
  • Alien Threats A Facade to Justify Spending Bonanza warns Edward Dowd - YouTube 
  • “Prime minister Modi's effort to dismantle India's democracy and install a racist Hindu ethnocracy in its place.” - Chompsky, on the head of the opposition party in India being thrown in jail.

  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 01,2023

  • Alberta election. People say the NDP candidate will do whatever Trudeau says, and she's also said she'll raise taxes on job creators almost 40%. Trudeau's government is not popular for a lot of reasons (currently it seems a Chinese scandal for ‘foreign’ interference).
  • May, 2023
  • May 18,2023
  • "The no pay for Congress during debt default Act," joked about on Bloomberg. ... "Who's the sponsor?"
     
    Oh wait, that was real
    New bipartisan House bill would block pay for members of Congress if U.S. defaults - YouTube 
  • May, 2023
  • May 15,2023



  • First of its kind bill, passed in the state.

    “to protect individuals from government surveillance in their personal finances through a CBDC." ... “the efforts to impose a central bank digital currency, which would shift purchasing power from consumers to the government.”

    “weaponization of the financial system through a CBDC.”

  • May, 2023
  • May 07,2023
  • Loneliness has become an epidemic in U.S., Surgeon General says - YouTube 
  • May, 2023
  • May 04,2023
  • Lawmakers dump First Republic shares amid banking crisis - YouTube 
  • May, 2023
  • May 03,2023
  • Patrick Bet-David Offers Tucker Carlson $100 Million To Join Valuetainment - YouTube 
  • Coinbase sets up overseas exchange.

    Was in US. Still is. But now also in Bermuda.
     
  • May, 2023
  • May 02,2023
  • Central Bank of UK said that wages for labor were going to be less than the rising price of things people are buying, so people just have to get used to it and everyone has to 'take their fair share' ie accept that the standard of living was going to decline

    Controversial for someone in such a position to say so. Question of for what then are these institutions?
     
    Did Pill mean cyclically, that we'd have a few down quarters and then continue upward? or did he mean that a peak has been reached? How does decreasing population and decreasing globalization factor in?
  • Branches of US government doing their own thing?

    Experts seem to be thinking that Powell/Fed are concerned only with their own issue ie inflation. They don't care about banks, or about the economy, or about the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling is a purely political issue, and must be settled by Congress, is how the attitude was framed by Jim Bianco.

    Does this organization (government departments pursuing their own mission while ignoring other parts of the overall system) contribute to healthier results? or to a fractured overall government which is less efficient?
    Powell in his department looks at inflation. 57% of Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck and couldn't raise $1000. Prices can't be allowed to raise beyond their ability to pay. So if a bunch of rich people need to suffer to decrease inflation we'll do that. The S&P value doesn't matter. (How Bianco framed it.)

    The 57% versus stockholders. But a lot more people are stockholders nowadays than before (everyone created a retail trading app account over the past few years). Might be interesting to contrast 2008 'The 1%' or the 10%, versus the current stockholders versus non-stockholders.
     
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 25,2023

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 06,2023

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 04,2023

  • Zeihan vlogged yesterday predicting the next election would go to Biden, after a race between him and Trump. (nothing to do with the arraignment).


  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 28,2023

  • Better competitors, more competition, better issues get used by them. DeSantis. 
     
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 27,2023
  • REPLAY: Humza Yousaf wins race to replace Sturgeon as Scotland's next leader • FRANCE 24 English - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 01,2023

  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 19,2023

  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 05,2023
  • Excess deaths, MP calls for urgent and thorough investigation - YouTube Go to 6:40 for the start of Christine Anderson's speech

    "All these people blindly trusted their governments" "A big lie" "It was never about public health. ... It was always about breaking people."

    You are a disgrace! Canada PM Trudeau savaged by German MEP at EU Parliament - YouTube (Anderson a few months ago criticizing Trudeau's unconstitutional government violation of citizen's rights)


    "When members of the EU Parliament asked Pfizer for copies of the contract that Pfizer apparently entered into with the European Parliament, The European Union, this is the level of transparency that they got back." (100 blanked out pages were apparently supplied, said Campbell.


     

     
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 25,2023
  • Global money saturates the globe's leading regulators - title in BMJ


    In UK 86% of the regulators' money comes from industry. US 65%. Canada 50% (so a lower amount maybe doesn't mean all that much).

     
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 21,2023

  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 18,2023

  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 02,2022
  • Politics are becoming a politics of grievance - Jon Alterman

    And how can you have a healthy society built on that?

    A constant rallying point, US, Israel, Middle East. Partially driven by social media and by PEOPLE'S ABILITY TO CHOSE individually what they like (they chose what gives them an emotional response).
    "It's strange that the places we see it most effective (the move away from politics of grievance) is authoritarian states that try not to have politics.

    #government
     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 27,2022

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 21,2022
  • Trump announced he would run in 2024 last week

    He gave a long announcement speech. Some commented he seemed more tired than last time.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 15,2022
  • Democrats did better than expected (past few months expectation)

    People thought Republicans would take maybe both houses, because of taxes and Biden things, but now people think that because of the Republican pro-life thing, people went out and voted Democrat.

    Also bad candidates hurt the Republicans.

    Biden maybe 'caused global inflation', but 'people still have their jobs.' And they vote how they feel.


  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 14,2022
  • Sam Bankman-Fried's political connections. Take this video with a grain of salt. This YouTuber just came across my feed, so I don't know how reliable he is. Later though, I saw quite a lot of YouTubers covering this, including MSM.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 12,2022
  • US midterm elections

    Summers said he thought it was a step away from extremes toward a stable center holding. People not fighting over the results, losing candidates conceding.
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 09,2022


  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 30,2022
  • Will ISI's revelations bring down public support for Imran Khan? | International News | WION - YouTube 
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 24,2022

  • 5PMs in 6 years for UK. Each one so impressive!

  • How many meetings, over what time frame, is average for a significantly solid peace, in this region and in other regions?
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 17,2022
  • Kanye buying Parler Social Media platform?

    "Nashville-based Parler, which has raised about $56 million till date, said it expects the deal to close during the fourth quarter of 2022. It did not give a deal value." - Reuters

    Kanye has been blocked from his Insta etc accounts in the past.

     
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 28,2022
  • Over the past weeks there have been big protests in Iran, and dozens of people have died


  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 23,2022
  • Health uber alles - Dennis Prager

    "In the name of health, you can do ANYTHING. Anything. You can lie, you can suppress, you can be cruel, you can distort, you can get rid of doctors who dissent, in the name of health."

     
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 18,2022
  • Trump's ideas are now sort of the orthodoxy - Victor Davis Hanson

    "He could say, I gave you this agenda. That everybody seems to agree that we have to restore the industrial capacity of America. We've gotta be tough on China. We've gotta have a border that's secure. We have to have a different foreign policy. We have to have responsible monetary policy. We've gotta pump oil and gas. And people were not talking about it like I was. And now we're all on the same page."

    Versus the Left's 'Lassaz-faire creative destruction 'They should have learned code' (Left turned on its base who didn't succeed like they had) we need cheap labor from other countries for corporate America so we need an open border.' They substituted White for class. Not just black people, but everybody has grievances (even rich ones) against Whites.

    Hanson says Trump has to not dwell on himself though, if he wants to be current. Or that he could step aside, allowing his ideas to continue for the party but with someone who won't incite the NeverTrumpers. More easy to focus on the issues.

    The Left has the money, the influence, the reach, in this new globalized economy. The Right has the middle classes.

    A Versailles Left that dresses up and plays like peasants, moralistic. A Jacobin Left that doesn't believe people are able to make better decisions than they as government can for everyone. A Maoist Left.
     
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 01,2022

  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 29,2022
  • Texas sends more than 9,000 migrants to NYC and DC - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 22,2022
  • Dr. Fauci announces he's stepping down - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 02,2022

  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 18,2022

  • Is it that there wasn't allowed video before? This release of video has been a headline.

    A few hundred people entered the Capitol building 2 years ago.

    In the event, one woman died from being shot. During the event, 3 other people had medical emergencies which they died from.
  • Biden's approval lowest right now since Carter in 1978

  • He's talking about July 4, one of the 3 holidays where Americans spend a ton of money. They buy lots of food and gas. We'll see if they can afford to do it this year like past years.

    Difference from 2008. 2008 it affected roughly 60% of the population. Today, with inflation, no matter who you are, where you live, how much you make, it will affect you.

    Trump misidentified the stock market as the thing Americans look to to decide whether things are good or bad. Biden misidentified jobs.

    33% of Americans blame the war in Ukraine. 25% blame corporations for charging too much (Biden is trying to blame Exxon etc for the reason why gas prices are so high).

    "The key is not who they blame. The fundamental key is who they think is trying to solve it. And this is where the administration comes up short."

    "The Biden administration is afraid of the political impact so they're downplaying the personal impact. And the truth is they should be candid."

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 10,2022
  • US and Canada removed COVID travel restrictions for tourists
  • Belgian king expresses regret for what happened in Congo decades ago (post-1880 labor camp)

    Some want Belgium to apologize, not just express regret, but he didn't do this during his speech during his visit.

     
  • NASA has decided to do a probe into UFO sightings

    Cost is $100k. 9 month study starting this year.
     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 09,2022
  • US pres Biden invokes Defense Protection Act to get US producers to make more parts for clean energy

    They also lifted tariffs on solar powers from (not China but) Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia and Thailand.

    US is investigating if some Chinese companies are circumventing US customs duties by assembling parts in poor countries.

    The same Defense Production Act that Biden used to force more baby food production: Baby formula shortage in USA big plant (Abbot in Michigan) was put on pause by the FDA. After some

  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 06,2022
  • Gravitas: India hits back at US after religious freedoms report - YouTube 
  • May, 2022
  • May 31,2022


  • May, 2022
  • May 22,2022
  • US is going to take 'drastic new steps' flying in baby formula with military jets from other countries

    The FDA commissioner was grilled today by Congress about why it's taken months to investigate the Abbot lab. He said they could have done better.

    One of the bills passed by congress was to increase funding for the FDA, partially so they can do more oversight.

    BIden invoked the Defense Protection Act, a wartime tool, to force manufacturers who produce baby formula to prioritize baby food.
  • May, 2022
  • May 05,2022
  • Denmark suspends vaccinations - YouTube 
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 21,2022
  • "Africans do not want to be part of your (EU) foreign policy. We want to be free to determine for ourselves whether to condemn or not to condemn Russia." - Halifa Sallah

    Speech - YouTube 
  • Disney expected to lose self-governing status

    It's had this status since it opened in the 1960s, so it can do it's own utilities and emergency services and things no the ground it occupies. It made this arrangement with Florida back then.

    But recently CEOs for Disney there spoke out against a bill (the bill would ban the teaching of gender issues to children kindergarden - grade 3) and said they'd try to have it appealed.

    Florida politicians didn't like that such a big company can try to effect lawmaking in this way.

    The bill to take away Disney's self-governing status is making it's way through legal channels very quickly. But Disney has some months before it would take effect anyway, so the matter isn't settled for sure.

    50m people visit Disney each year.

     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 20,2022


  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 16,2022
  • Germany is increasing defense spending by $2b

    "We're seeing an incredible, very interesting shift in German politics not only when it comes to supplying these weapons [to Ukraine] but also on this discourse on this discussion What it means to be a pacifist. And it's just standing by from the sidelines and seeing how Russia continues to attack Ukraine. ... Many are saying that if you want to support peace and you want to actually support Ukraine they need more than just solidarity on social media. They need either this oil and gas embargo or they need delivery of the heavy weapons the Ukrainian president has repeatedly requested." People saying you can still be a pacifist while calling for and supplying these weapons for Ukraine.

    This activist movement in Germany is reportedly a changed movement, the same movement that in the 60s and 80s called for disarmament, especially nuclear disarmament.

    Another thing Germans are saying is that one of the reasons this war occurred is because of NATO expansion.

    In Germany the main activists protesting are Germans, Ukrainians and Syrians.

     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 15,2022
  • UK making headlines for plan to send refugees to Rwanda

    PM Boris Johnson also made headlines this week for making an apology for violating mask mandate (and something about a fine).
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 12,2022
  • Democrats try for new gun legislation, citing 'ghost guns'

    Guns that can be ordered as a kit and assembled (from 3 or 4 large parts or blocks of parts, it looks like).
  • France election coming up, and people wondering if Le Pen (nationalist) is France's Trump

    Macron still expected to keep his position, though.

    #France
  • India and Russian energy

    India has appeared somewhat in Western news over recent weeks with a sort of insinuation that it shouldn't buy Russian oil. However, today an Indian politician noted that India's monthly purchase of Russian oil is less than Europe's daily purchase.
     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 11,2022
  • Iran could teach Russia how to evade sanctions and 'money launder', according to an opinion piece in the WSJ (Dubowitz and Zweig)

    Of Tehran could serve as Russia's broker, taking a cut of the "illicit" trade it facilitates on Russia's behalf.

    Iran has a 'money laundering' architecture, a system they could make available to others.

    US/West kicked Iran of Swift, reduced their oil sales from 2.5b barrels to a few hundred thousand. So Iran has dealt with harsher sanctions than Russia (which still sells gas to Europe and has some institutions on Swift reportedly).


     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 01,2022
  • Gravitas: Hong Kong separates 2,000 Covid-positive children from parents - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 24,2022

  • ... the commenter said Z couldn't ban those ones.

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 11,2022
  • "Ivermectin use was associated with decreased mortality in patients compared with Remdesevir," according to a newly published paper. But that paper has been withdrawn.

    AP published an article saying the research article was 'flawed.'


    Long list of side effects to look out for - YouTube  
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 01,2022
  • "Among the 248 armed conflicts that occurred in 153 regions in the world from 1945 to 2001, 201 were initiated by the US, accounting for 81% of the total number" - Chinese embassy in Russia

    They posted a list on their website.

    Victor Gao of Soochow U said China believes Ukraine has been used by the US and Western countries. He said what the US and Europe were doing with sanctions were destabilizing for the region.

    He said US benefits because they want to sell L&G to Europe without competition from Russia, whose LNG is cheaper and more sustainable.

     
  • "Basically, the US regime creates crises, lives off of crises and feeds on various crises in the world. Ukraine is another victim of this policy." - Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

  • US wanted to turn Ukraine into anti-Russia, as the meaning of their existence - Sergei Lavrov
     
  • "Since 2014 the Kiev regime has been fighting its own people." - Lavrov (Russian FM to UN Council)

    "The ultra-nationalists and neo-nazis who seized power in Kiev after a revolution supported by the West unleashed real terror.

    "It is impossible to remember the terrible tragedy in Odessa on May 2, 2014 without shuddering.... The criminals who committed this crime were known by name. They posed in front of cameras ...

    "Attempts to draw the attention of the UN human rights council to the atrocities that have been going on for 8 years ran into their indifference." etc. Speech in YouTube link below outlines Russias position.

     
  • Perhaps EU wants to prove its relevance in the situation - Russian EU delegate

  • FIFA banned Russia from participating in World Cup

    FIFA refused to suspend teams located in Israeli settlements in Israeli occupied lands, which violate FIFA's own rules (teams can't play in the territory of another country), according to Ali Abunimah.


     
  • Lots of talk among commentators about promises made by the West in order to have the Soviet Union disbanded

    ... in like 1990 (but over several years, and under several US presidents making having talks). The idea was that in the talks, there was nothing in writing, but it was made clear to Moscow that if the SU allowed the reunification of Germany that NATO would not be expanded. That NATO troops would not be able to enter into the eastern part of Germany (only to West Germany).

    It wasn't a treaty, but it was (people are saying) the agreement that was made.

     
  • John Meashiemer 2015 said in a lecture,

    "But I actually think that what's going on here is that the West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path, and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked. And I believe that the policy [of] neutralizing Ukraine, building it up economically, getting it out of the competition between Russia on one side and NATO on the other is the best thing that could happen to the Ukrainians.

    "What we're doing is encouraging the Ukrainians to play tough with the Russians. We're encouraging the Ukrainians to think that they will ultimately become part of the West, because we will ultimately defeat Putin and we will ultimately get our way. Time is on our side. And of course the Ukrainians are playing along with this and ... almost completely unwilling to compromise with the Russians, and instead wanna pursue a hardline policy.

    "... it would make much more sense for us to work to create a neutral Ukraine."

    A year after the US-sponsored coup in Ukraine when far-right elements were weaponized by the US to overthrow the government and install what the US thought would be a more pliable one (how Ali Abunimah put it).


     
  • Some draw a parallel between Russia's current invasion and the 2003 US invasion of Iraq

    US government entered after saying Iran had weapons of mass destruction, and held up that little prop vial on TV.

    Ideas of Ali Abunimah talking to BreakThrough News:

    "After 9/11, there was this atmosphere of jingoism, of war fever, of vengefulness, that was directed at other countries and very quickly towards Afghanistan and also toward Iraq. We know how that played out. But also it was internally directed because if you were Muslim, Sikhs, people of color generally lived in terror in this country at that time. ... There was pervasive fear not just of vigilante attacks but of government, monitoring and deportations. ... If you said, "Why did this happen? How did this happen? What led to this point? What are the policies of the US that could have created the conditions for this to happen, you were accused of justifying it. You were accused of justifying it, you were treated as an enemy. You were treated as a traitor. Nothing would be allowed to interfere with the headlong rush into war.

    "The 9/11 attacks happened in September. By late October the US was invading Afghanistan. Then ... in 2003 they started the march to the war in Iraq based on lies. One of the lies was that Saddam Hussein was involved in 9/11. There was absolutely no evidence of that but it was a story they put out. polls ... the majority of Americans believed [that] ... in addition to the question of weapons of mass destruction."

    "I would ask a lot of people who naively supported the invasion of Afghanistan back then, 'If you knew what you know now back then, would you support it again?' Same with Iraq. Forget about people who say this is immoral, this is illegal, this is a war crime."

    "People would say, 'But we were attacked.'"

    "That's a fact we can't change. Is the response to escalate more war or is it to seek a different approach?"

    "I get the same responses today. When you say, 'How did we get here?' you're accused of justifying what Putin did. You're taking the side of Russia. "

    "One of the grievances Putin has is the expansion of NATO."

      
  • Zelenskyy repeats request for Ukraine to become part of EU
     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 28,2022
  • Norway's said it will unwind its $3b worth of Russian holdings from its sovereign wealth fund

  • Zelenskyy wasn't popular among many European nations before, but now he's seen as a kind of folk hero, an underdog fighting for his nation

    ... some say. He didn't accept the US invitation for him to come to the States. He reportedly hasn't been avoiding battles, joining the soldiers where the fighting is. And he has demonstrated he can work 24 hours a day.

     
  • Video being reported on where a Ukrainian is dipping bullets in pig fat, to use against Chechen Muslim
  • Russia-Ukraine peace talks on 5th day of war

    In Belarus, on the Ukraine-Belarus border. Delegations from each country which don't include the two leaders.

  • Belarus constitutional referendum: They voted in favor of hosting nuclear weapons and allow leader to extend his rule (possibly an additional 10 years) and give him immunity to prosecution once he leaves office

    The West said they wouldn't recognize the referendum results, which happened while Russia was invading Ukraine and while Belarus was serving as a launchpad for some of the invading Russian troops.

  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 27,2022
  • CDC isn't publishing most of the info it has been collecting about Covid patients (referring to boosters)

    They left out 18-49 year-olds, basically skewing the data to sell booster efficacy, according to Breaking Points. Apparently they also had data about breakthrough infections and didn't publish it.



  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 21,2022
  • Feds are buying data about people from a company that gets it from several apps

    If you are an app developer, and you sell your app data to some company, it can be used this way.

    Some of these apps are for things like gay dating (Bro) and religious prayer and study (Muslim Pro, an app that notifies people 5 times per day it's time for them to pray) (Full Quran, an audio book of the Quran), as well as one where people upload their faces and do virtual makeup on it (Perfect365).

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 18,2022
  • "Never in my 56 years have I ever experienced a country so divided, so full of hatred towards friends and neighbors. They may have opinions that differ from theirs, but they're so willing to publicly shame and humiliate and spew forth angry vitriol. We have been called 'terrorists.' For the first 36 we were inundated with hatred with threats of violence. People threatened our team on the phone, telling them "We're coming to get you." "We're going to throw bricks through your window." "You'll pay for this you nazi supporter." I personally have been called a disgusting pig of a woman and that I shall rot in hell." Our rural shop out in Meritville, Ontario, someone draped a large bedsheet over our sign ... and the sign read, "Tammy supports terrorists." - Tammy, the woman who was doxed after donating $250 of her own money to the Canadian trucker protest.

    "Late yesterday messages of support and encouragement started to arrive, and people from coast to coast to coast throughout Canada and the US, they've been buying gift cards online and calling themselves 'guardian angels.'"

    "Our kids arrived today and there were heart-shaped balloons hanging from the door handle and the window was covered with little sticky notes and they were all these inspiration notes of encouragement.

     
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 09,2022
  • MSM and politicians are calling trucker protest in Canada an 'insurrection'

  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 03,2022
  • "Hundreds of thousands of people who died in the US did not have to die" - John Nichols, author of Coronavirus Criminals and Pandemic Profeteers

    "Globally, it's in the millions."

    He said a study published in Lancet suggests roughly 40% of deaths in the first year were unnecessary.

    The Pfizer vaccine now accounts for 25% of the company's profits.

    The People's Vaccine Project estimates the 3 vaccine makers make about $65k a minute from the vaccines (that would mean $93m per day).

    In 2021 the vaccines created 9 new billionaires, according to Oxfam (months ago though so could be more).

    The vaccines were developed with taxpayer money (Moderna). The president and Congress have not really done much to try to have them pay taxes on excess profits in this type of moment.

    His book is about people who took advantage or made profits from the pandemic, such as Bezos.

     
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 22,2022
  • Video of police hauling off old woman due to vaccine mandate

    ... in Australia. It's the image of it. (I haven't watched it.)

    But an example of what happens when not everyone quietly does what the government says or avoids things, but instead goes about their civilian life which causes a confrontation.

  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 21,2022
  • Austria became the first country to make vaccines mandatory

    A lockdown solely for the unvaccinated. Tyranny? It was a Christmas without being allowed to go out. Only out for "essential reasons" like shopping at the supermarket.

    In a couple weeks there will be vaccine mandate, meaning there will no longer be a choice to not get the vaccine (except a few medical exceptions). Those not vaccinated will have to pay 200 Euros per person per month. If you refuse, you will be fined a further 3600 Euros. Then they will start confiscating your property and then send people to jail, at least according to some.

    Protests of even over 100k people (country has 8.5m people).
    A general strike is currently being organized, and is seen as the most effective way to fight back against the government.

    Regarding data protection (which is a serious thing in Europe), does this introduce an unlawful dragnet search?


    The vlogger says she doesn't see an effortless end to this, but rather actions and courageousness to fight the government.

      
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 20,2022
  • US hospitals reimbursed for hospitalizations for Covid, but not for other things

    Some claim the economic incentive causes bad data and perhaps less than great practice.

    Tax funded.

  • FOI act info in UK and Covid numbers

    In 2020 Q1, the total deaths of people from ONLY Covid (no other underlying conditions), was 9400. Average age 81. That was when the pandemic started, and there were not yet any vaccines.

    (UK has 68m people.)

    2021 Q1, total deaths 6500. Average age around the same.

    Q2 total deaths 350.

    Q3 total deaths 1150.

    In the first 3 quarters of 2021, 17,500 people died of Covid without having other underlying conditions. The average age was 82 years (higher than average life expectancy 79 for men 83 for women).

    This is not what MSM in the UK has been leading people to believe. Official government data says 137k people have died as of Sep 30 2021. This includes all deaths where the person tested positive for Covid, no matter how they died. Seven times higher than the data they have not reported.

    Relatedly,

    A former WHO authority (did he resign?) Karol Sikora (U of Buckingham prof now) said about 50k more people have died from cancer over past 18 months, due to failure to report early, difficulty in seeing a GP, fear of hospital admissions, missed chemo or radio.

    There are 6m people waiting for NHS treatment right now.

     
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 18,2022
  • Macron referred to the 5m French who are unvaccinated as 'non-citizens'

    ... and said, "I really want to piss them off. And so we will continue to do so, to the bitter end. That's the strategy." More protests in the streets followed this. "Liberte" was among the chants.

    Recently Biden also said something like he was 'losing patience' with Americans who didn't agree with universal mandatory vaccination in this case, as though he were not the their civil servant but rather their patriarch?




  • Three strategies recommended in a German government paper: 1. Fear of death by suffocation; 2. Fear of although you get better it can kill you some time later; 3. Having children believe their grandparents can die for their fault.

    UK government has been the number one customer for advertising in media in UK since start of pandemic.

    All the news, especially in a crisis, comes from the government. You need a good contact. If you act as a media broadcaster for the government, you get special benefits.

    If you don't comply with the rules, you are ostracized and a nazi.

    Pharma, big tech, and government, cooperating with the government, make this mass hysteria possible.

    Ways to reduce stress from mass hysteria: exercise and socializing, seeing the faces of other people, smiling. Having fun. Going out to drink, do sports. Forbidden under 'lockdown.'

    Isolation, more vulnerable to messaging (also to 'brainwashing'). Constant bombardment with the same message.

    Decline of religion and church (functions in community, support), more vulnerable to mass hysteria, psychological problems in general.

    "Constitutions are to protect the citizens against the government, but they did not fulfill this role. If this was their role, they totally failed. So constitutions are not the way to go. I think the size of the government has to be reduced. So the connections to the media, the connections to the government should be totally separated, for Big Tech also, for pharmacy, there should be no influence.' - Phillip Bagus.

    'If there is just one voice, if he talks out of this halls of Congress, that normal people cannot walk into, from there he says "There's this killer virus," then you believe. If government would not be responsible for that, if it would be private, there would be many independent specialists about public health, about health issues, which would compete with each other and one would say "This is a killer virus," another would say "No, don't freak out, don't panic, act normal more or less, take some measures." But when you have all this power to the government, then this message of fear can really overwhelm you and lead to the panic.'

    Government controls education, the media.

    'However, a huge part of the population in this crisis has stopped to believe in government. They have become more skeptical, From all political backgrounds. Because the lies of government, what they told about the vaccine, about the threat, and the harm they actually did to people, that people can actually feel it. Many people want their liberty back.'

    'Governments have an incentive to increase threats and use them to increase their power.'

    Also, 'With the State, the politicians have very bad incentives with the mass hysteria, because they face asymmetric payoffs. When they underestimate the threat, that is very bad. They will be ousted. They are responsible. If they overestimate threat. There might also be deaths, but they are not as directly connected with the threat (suicides, bad health, economic). Not connected to the politician decisions. In any case they have the media to protect them. ... The result is to overreact. To do a lockdown. The costs the politician does not assume. He will get his salary, but the people who lose their jobs, their savings, the business they built, they lose. People who get depressions they lose. The politician does not face these. He can externalize them.'

     
  • Chief medical officer should be replaced by Supreme Court style panel, suggested by Valuetainment

    Because Fauci is the constant between the Trump and Biden admins, Fauci's position on (I don't know what it was but it's in a popular book called the Truth about Fauci) AIDS in the 80s.

    "I don't think that position, moving forward, I'm comfortable being one person. I think it's a Supreme Court model [that would be better]. ... On one side, you got somebody that's part of the Peter McCollaugh camp, somebody that's part of a Malone camp ... on the other side, you got a Fauci, you got any of these guys. Sit down, hash it out, let us, let Congress people, question both of you. But right now the only person's argument you're allowed to hear is Tony's.


  • Thousands of UK medical professionals being fired for refusing vaccine mandate against will

    1 in 10 NHS professionals are not vaccinated. They will be fired pretty soon upon a mandated deadline.


  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 18,2021
  • Gaza battery buildup

    20,000 tonnes of waste batteries have built up in the Gaza Strip (leaking pollutants), because export of batteries is still banned by Israel (13 years now for the ban).
     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 17,2021
  • Cluster: Ultra-right, anti-vaccine-mandate, political organization

    MSM is tying vaccine mandate opposition to 'nazis,' it seems.

    But there might be two things here: first, that protesting vaccine mandates (which would include people of all political affiliations) could be a basis for political organization and activity; and radical political extremes in political limitations on those in the chairs.


     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 12,2021
  • UK forcasts between 175k and 500k hospitalizations from Omicron

    ... and between 25k and 75k deaths. London School of Medicine. They recommend more vaccinations. They didn't recommend vitamins D or Zinc or the treatment measures discussed in non-mainstream medicine.

    Inconsistent with real-world experience of South Africa, where in a population of 60m 5500 people have been hospitalized so far.

     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 21,2021
  • Britain on the cusp of considering officially the entire Hamas as a 'terrorist organization'

    Because it can't tell which parts are political and which militant. Hamas does have a 'political wing,' though.

    US, Canada and EU already designate Hamas a terrorist group.

    The new Israel leadership has been pushing against 'terrorism' and closing NGOs under this justification.

    "I think it's actually a fallacy to consider military and political separate. The political wing is integral in helping the military wing in terrorist organizations." - Anne Herzberg

    Included in the political move, if it passes (and Boris is considered to be pro-Israel) is criminal liability including jail punishment for people who support Hamas (as a 'terrorist organization'). This will affect all groups doing fundraising, meetings, media coverage. A Cambridge University professor commented that it affects teachers and how they teach, and that there has already been challenges to them and their freedom of expression, and the Hamas classification would add to that. She said England's Palestinian community of about 5000 would not any longer be able to speak freely about this issue.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 23,2021
  • Trust in gov linked to vaccination levels

    Russia, despite having a vaccine earlier, has only 33% vaccination.

    Or does it have something to do with public information about the nationalist approach to a vaccine.

    Reportedly, you can buy a vaccine passport in Russia online for 70Euros, and it doesn't matter if you got the vaccine for real.

    In the US, govt decisions about medicines is being framed in light of incentives. For example, the new Merck Molnupiravir costs $17 to produce and the US is paying $700 a course for it. Expected revenue for Merck this year is $7b.

    The Bill and Melinda gates foundation gave BBC Media Action $1.6m this year. Why?

    In India, the Indian Bar is taking a head of the WHO to court, alleging the WHO give false medical info.

    Another question in the US/West. Early in the Pandemic, the government made decisions based on input from their scientists. The govt thereby thought they were following the science, but was the science correct? Did the chief science officers get it wrong? or what happened there? (Note that even as a layman, during the first week or two of the Pandemic in late Feb 2019, there was data available showing where the virus came from, how it spread, etc., which the government's positions seemed to disagree with, and my guess at the time was that if govt officials were actually motivated to public welfare, they understood from data they had and I didn't but could guess at, that even if they told their populations to treat it seriously and restrict contagion risks, their population wouldn't have obeyed).
     
  • Fed still saying inflation is transitory

    ... despite, many say, many indicators like rising house prices, rents, wages.

    "Yes, you need to fight the Fed," Komal Sri Kumar said this week, which is the opposite of what most stock investors say and have been saying since the Pandemic. "Because the Fed cannot win at all times.

    "We have had times in history when the Fed goes to extremes, it doesn't anticipate what is going to happen, and then the whole thing fails.

    "One example was effort to keep interest rates, bond yields under control during the 1940s, early 50s, and it just collapsed.

    "2008, Fed did not foresee the crisis."

    Many countries have been hiking rates but not in the developed world.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 22,2021
  • Biden's approval rating down

    Around 35%. Particularly low among independents and women, who were both part of how he got elected.
  • US citizens increasingly think 'democracy' under threat

    Over 70% of Republicans and 35% of Democrats think 'democracy' is serious under threat.
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 19,2021
  • Colin Powell, 'first black Secretary of State' who worked for Bush White House, died

    ... just a few months after Rumsfeld. Powell was 84.

    According to people commenting on posts about him, he'll be most remembered for lying the US into its war against Iraq, and for 'regime change.' People called him war criminal.

    Here is a piece about him:

    Colin Powell, creator of the viral anti-war meme featuring himself holding a stage prop while lying to the United Nations about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, has died at the age of 84.

    Over the years Powell’s meme has been an invaluable asset for opponents of western military interventionism and critics of U.S. propaganda narratives about empire-targeted nations, serving as a single-image debunk of any assertion that it is sensible to trust the claims U.S. officials make about any government that Washington doesn’t like.

    Note that as effective as visual propaganda is in its message, it is also very effective the other way once it's meaning has been redefined.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 08,2021
  • China's risk in thinking about conquering Taiwan

    Fairly risk averse gov. Potential of losing is quite deterrent.

    Not much war experience, even to take on the Taiwanese.

    US and Japan are close. India and US are closer than before, increasingly seen as an ally. Aukus and Quad alliances. China increasingly isolated. What diplomatic options?

    Xi's foreign policy is not considered a success over the past 10 years.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 27,2021
  • Nicaragua elections, US interference?

    According to Jill Clark-Gollub (Activist with Friends of Latin America), Ortega, who was elected in 2006 after 16 years of the kind of government the US wanted, will easily win the upcoming election in Nicaragua since he has 2 to 1 support, so the US actions there, according to leaks from the US embassy in Managua, is another coup attempt. Since Ortega is the democratically popular leader, the US will try to delegitimize the election, she said.

    US is conducting economic warfare as part of its democracy promotion/meddling/regime change, according to Clark-Gollub. The Nica Act had the US veto projects and loans from multi-lat institutions and aid since 2018. However, the US did send aid during the pandemic (although less than Nica's neighbors). The US sanctions target the whole of government, so how can the minister of health import medicines? The sanctions also target the police and army and the entire Sandanista political party FSLN (2.1 card carrying members of Nicaragua's 6.5m people, although their families would also be affected more or less directly by the sanctions).

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 20,2021
  • US, UK, Aus form new military pact

    Basically in preparation for a possible war with China, and we might suppose the MIC.

    There has been 'increased tension' between Aus and China recently.

    France quite upset and vocal about being left out. China made the usual critical statements.

    Aus will get a nuclear capable submarine fleet with US/UK tech.

    NATO is maybe not as popular an idea as it once was (if ever), with members making further pacts among themselves and competing in military business matters.

     
  • France recalls ambassadors from Aus and US over submarine deal

    They also cancelled a gala to celebrate France-US relations, and is now reportedly trying to convince other EU countries to pull out of talks with Aus over a proposed free trade agreement.

    The original 2016 deal for 12 French subs was to be estimated $25b, which grew incrementally, finally to $90b, and was behind schedule. $300b would have been the total cost including maintenance for subs not ready till between 2035 - 2050, and there are questions how outdated they might be then.

    Something about China stepping up aggression in the oceans, and Aus looking at buying from the US/UK.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 14,2021
  • Trump interview, talks about 'surviving' in role of president

    He was asked in an interview with FoxNews this month what was hard about being pres. He said:

    "Well, I had 2 forms of presidency. Number 1 I had to run the country, work on the world, and do things. In the other one I had to survive. The survival was much tougher, because I had fake Muller people coming after me, I had 19 really haters after me. I had every form of law enforcement after me. It started from the day I came down the escalator. It never stops. I had every prosecutor after me. They're looking at deals I did years and years ago. I forgot about them. ... But if you don't survive, you can't do a good job in terms of running."

    "... with Pelosi and Schumer and all of them. That was probably the toughest. Far tougher than a lot of world leaders."
     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 11,2021
  • Japan PM Yoshihide Suga to step down

    ... after just a year in office, after the resignation of Abe.

    People said it was just simple politics, that he doesn't have political backup and is stepping down to avoid more infighting which might cause his party (LDP) to lose more seats. Suga's ratings are low.

  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 06,2021
  • Guinea pres. removed in coup

    Critics say President Alpha Conde didn't deliver on the promises he made that put him in government, Last year he changed the constitution to allow himself a third term.

    The main points are ethnic reconciliation and economic improvement. Critics say that although he said he would work towards ethnic unification, he later politicked and used ethnic divisions to advantage.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 01,2021
  • FDA’s former acting chief scientist: “FDA is losing two giants who helped bring us many safe and effective vaccines over decades of public service.”

    Office of Vaccines Research and Review Director Marion Gruber, Ph.D. and Deputy Director Phillip Krause, M.D.


  • Chinese govt erases rich actress from internet

    Zhao Wei fled to France.

    From News.au:

    On Friday, Beijing’s Cyberspace Administration agency issued a set of instructions to social media and internet operators aimed at “rectifying issues” with fan communities.

    The purpose was to ensure “political and ideological safety in the cyberspace as well as creating a clean internet”.

    Celebrities can no longer be ranked in order of popularity.

    Talent agencies must submit themselves to Communist Party oversight.

    Fan clubs must be licenced and officially authorised.

    Any disagreement between fans of different high-profile personalities must immediately be censored.

    The regulatory crackdown follows the publication of a policy guideline, Implementation Outline for the Establishment of a Rule of Law-Based Society, which mandates the establishment of “moral norms” as “legal norms”.

    China is reportedly banning stars who are considered immoral. Zhao has been in various scandals over the years. She has also been in conflict with the CCP for her friendly relations with Taiwan and Japan, it seems.

    She was accused of tax evasion Friday. If she pays the $A63m fine, she might be able to return to normal life in China.

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/online/internet/china-erases-billionaire-actress-zhao-wei-from-history/news-story/94100f6569377078cfeee411f5fc3538
     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 23,2021
  • Future political change in US, taking apart Big Tech - Stoller's guess

    (Matt Stoller, Director of Research at the American Economic Liberties Project)

    'The pace setters of our ideology right now, of these dominant centers of power, and ignoring that power to just sort of focus on other questions that matter but that don't touch power directly, that don't touch concentrated commercial power. This is big tech. It's Amazon, it's Facebook, it's Google, it's Apple, it's Microsoft. These are the pace setters of our economic order. And I think that we're going to be taking those apart. And as we take those apart, because they are too powerful, and the Right and Left have both kind of come to that conclusion, there are going to be so many other consequences of that choice.

    'To take apart the most powerful firms in your economy means that you're really restructuring how you think about political philosophy and political economy, and that's going to have lots of consequences in every industry across the board, and you're already kind of seeing it.'

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 22,2021
  • Taliban's future plans and update from them

    Abdul Qahar Balkhi, from the Taliban’s Cultural Commission, in the Taliban’s first official interview since it took control of Kabul a week ago (talking to AJ):

    On government formation

    "The consultations are ongoing, and of course it is going to be an inclusive system.

    "The talks include whether the capital will remain in Kabul or move to [the group’s birthplace] Kandahar.

    On the chaos at Kabul airport

    Balkhi: We are in talks and we have a relationship, a working relationship, with the Americans about the security arrangement.

    The outside checkposts are in our control, and inside is under the control of the US forces, and we are in constant contact with one another.

    On the lack of trust between people in Kabul and the Taliban

    Balkhi: It is very unfortunate for people to be rushing to the airport the way they are at the moment.

    Because we have announced a general amnesty for everyone in the security forces from the senior to the junior level… this fear, this hysteria that has taken place is unfounded.

    On the swift takeover of Kabul

    Balkhi: The developments were so fast that all people were taken by surprise.

    When we entered Kabul, and it was not planned because we announced initially that we do not want to enter Kabul, and we want to reach a political solution before entering Kabul and making a joint and inclusive government. But what happened was that the security forces left, abandoned their places, and we were forced to ask our forces to enter and take over security.

    On governance and women’s rights

    Balkhi: The point of intra-Afghan talks was precisely that we come to an agreement about what those rights actually entail.

    Islamic law is known to everyone and there are no ambiguities about the rights of women, the rights of men, not only women but also the rights of men and children. And right now we’re in a situation that hopefully during the consultations there will be clarifications about what those rights are.

    On the reported targeted killings and harassment of government and civil society figures

    Balkhi: O
    On the chaos at Kabul airportur foremost priority is the discipline in our own ranks, and not enforcing laws on others but enforcing it on ourselves first and then giving it an example for the rest of society to follow suit. So we’re the first ones and our members, if they are involved in such things, [they] will be the first to be prosecuted.
    On the group being labelled ‘terrorists’

    Balkhi: I don’t think people believe we are terrorists. I think it’s just “the war on terror”, it was just a term coined by the United States and anyone [who did] not fall in line were labelled terrorists.

    ...

    What a difference it makes to hear a non-aggressive man speak English. It's the first time I've heard anything other than Taliban elders speaking with subtitles underneath. While they may have sounded a bit rough or stern, perhaps part of that was simply a rougher, sterner way of just speaking normally there.

    Although some wondered if it was just a charm offensive, not representative of the Taliban.

    AJ English on YT: Taliban official reveals more about the group’s vision for the future
     
  • Women, girls and minorities

    This seems to be the mantra used by mass media, voicing the US gov side of the Afghan issue.

    The Taliban has said their government won't be like a Western democracy but will protect everyone's rights, but critics doubt this given the Taliban's record for ...

    Is this because Western govs can't really say they protect rights anymore? and really just have a few things they really hold up (some say unfairly positively prejudice in favor of)? Those three things.
  • Some US National Guards seeking to limit their deployment unless a state of war is actually declared by Congress

    'The mission for the National Guard has to be changed,' said one vet.

    Traditionally, the National Guard is activated by the states to deal with domestic emergencies (natural disasters, civil disturbances, pandemics). And support and backup for overseas military operations. Lots served in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    They were a strategic reserve, and are now 'a combat operationally-focused reserve capability,' according to some.

    States are obligated to make them available in 'national security threats.' The issue is 'What is a national security threat?' The 2001 War on Terror resolution has allowed the last 4 presidents to use them for their wars, and they all have done so. Afghanistan and Iraq.

    Some, like Congresswoman Idaho Lt. Governor Janice McGeachin, believe undeclared wars (all American wars since WWII) are not included, according to Article 1 of the Constitution. Article 1, for allowing Federal use of the state's militia, is for executing the laws of the nation, suppressing insurrection, and repelling invasions.

    'Defend the Guard' is the name of one of the groups doing this.

    However, the states might not be able to limit Federal control of the Guard after it 'has been mobilized for Federal service in the context of any law, or mobilized for Federal training as a reserve of the army or air force, the states have no control over what the president or the DoD does with those units once they're in that status.' (Brig. Gen. David McGinnis (Red.))

    One thing the Fed can do is limit funding for the Guard if they don't come when called on. Hundreds of millions per year.

    Some say the Guard, as a result of it's militarization and combat deployments, is better trained, equipped, and more integrated with the active military.

    But is that a good type of better for doing state domestic emergencies?


    WIkipedia: Article One of the United States Constitution
     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 23,2021
  • China announces sanctions on seven Americans, including HRW's Sophie Richardson

    China's foreign ministry spokesperson also referred to American 'preaching' and 'arrogance.'

  • France lower house approved a bill to give the government more powers to combat things tied to 'religion' (Islamist separatism)

    Powers to enable the government to do things with religious organizations and places of worship, foreign funding, home schooling, wearing religious symbols and certain clothing, and 'online abuse.'
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 22,2021
  • Merkel at last press conference says 'we' did not do enough for global warming goal (keeping it under 2 degrees)

    ... and that this is why 'we need to step up our efforts.' She was in power 16 years.

  • Assassinations of political leaders, or at least reports of them

    Most recent in Madagascar for a plot.

    In previous weeks Haiti's president was killed by a squad of gunmen, and Mali's interim leader said he was victim to an attempt.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 07,2021
  • Haitian president assassinated at home

    At 1am armed men, some speaking French, some English, entered his residence and shot him and his wife (who died later). His son escaped.

    We don't know what group the assassins belong to, or how they get past security, or how they knew anything about the interior of the residence.

    President Jovenel Moise won (with 8% of the vote) in 2017. Due to violence in the country, he assumed office without continuing to Haiti's second round of the election, so many considered him illegitimate in the role. When called to step down, he didn't, and some said he was increasingly authoritarian.

    Haiti has a lot of violence. Most of the population lives on a few dollars a day, and parts of the country are not regularly accessible because they are controlled by armed groups and bandits.

    Now there's a shuffle ongoing to put in a new leader, as the VP died months ago of Covid-19.

    The PM announced that day a 'state of emergency.'

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 02,2021
  • Historical 'revisionism' in China, CCP anniversary

    China's Communist Party marked it's 100th anniversary, and Xi made a big speech, using quite marshal language and stating China wouldn't be pushed around by foreign powers.

    China is practicing 'historical nihilism,' according to China Centre (Oxford U) Director Rana Mitter, revisionism in which the communist political movement started with a handful of guys in the 1920's, and then some stuff happened which was necessary or inevitable, and then they are where they are now.

    The take is that before Communism, China was being buffeted by various foreign factors like Western imperialism and the 'Century of Humiliation,' Opium Wars, Japanese invasion in the 1920s; and the CCP is the final vehicle of destiny that allowed China to stand up for itself.

    He said that in China you can't mention the Great Leap Forward of the 1950s (where 10's of millions died), and that the Cultural Revolution, although more complex, can be talked about in China but you have to be careful which parts you talk about.

  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 27,2021
  • Palestinian protesters want Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to resign following death of one of his critics in custody

    The man's family said the autopsy report showed he had been beaten.

    'What Nizar faced was planned and organized crime,' said a protester.

    The protesters who assembled in Ramallah had other complaints, including corruption, cronyism, disregard for legitimate process, and not protecting the rights of Palestinians. Abbas recently postponed Palestinian elections indefinitely.
  • 5 years since Brexit referendum (June 23, 2016)

    A panelist back then: 'The spell of the European Union not being questioned has been broken.'

    The vote result was kind of a surprise.

    A recent poll has it that 48% of Britons think it was the wrong decision to have made, and 40% the right decision.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 26,2021
  • Trump held his first rally since leaving office

    He left office Jan 20. He hasn't done anything really public except a few interviews since then.

    He doesn't have options for speaking to the public he used to have, since Twitter and Facebook banned him earlier this year.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 14,2021
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu voted out after 10 years

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 13,2021
  • Macron slapped

    ... by a man behind a regular barricade when the French pres walked up to talk to people. The man nearest him grabbed the presidents arm, yelled 'Down with Macronism,' and slapped his face.

     
  • US Republicans very much enjoying Kamala Harris' not visiting the US/Mexico border

    They're counting the days (now about 80) since she's held a news conference on the immigration issue.

    She's been down in Guatemala, tasked with addressing the root cause of the immigration crisis.

    According to Ted Cruz in a recent criticism of the Biden government, the US is seeing the highest rate of illegal immigration in 20 years.

     

Show More

Show Less

  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • Phone Co Employee Caught SIM-Swapping for Bribes - YouTube

    Imposters stealing Utah restaurant names to deceive drivers and customers on food delivery apps - YouTube
    Restaurant fighting with Doordash for a year.

    Nemesis Dark Web Market Gets Seized by German Federal Police - YouTube


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 15,2024
  • BREAKING: Boeing Whistleblower FOUND DEAD After Stunning Testimony - YouTube
    62-year-old Boeing whistleblower John Barnett found dead in his truck after he didn't show up for a legal interview linked to a case against Boeing. Barnett worked for Boeing for 32 years and retired in 2017. After retiring, Barnett spoke out about how Boeing was cutting corners on their airplanes. : StrangeEarth/
    'If anything happens, it's not suicide': Boeing whistleblower's prediction to family before death - YouTube

    How The Shadowy World Of Organized Retail Crime Works - YouTube
    Boosters get a list from the boss, fencers list them on Amazon at discounts.
    People trust Amazon to check these things, but then when you consider it you think How can Amazon check this kind of thing? Would Amazon even want to? when they're undercutting the price of TJMax where the goods were stolen from. Online marketplaces profit from this. In the video, the theft ring had been operated on Amazon for over 10 years, reportedly. Amazon, commenting on the story, said they had not received signals the company was dealing in stolen goods, and that Amazon doesn't profit from stolen goods.
    This development is on the rise.

    The closest to a science fiction government is Singapore. Large investments coupled with technocratic, technological literacy. UK in the 1940s, with radar and computers, speed of breakthroughs. Rest of nations, scientific spending is by consensus, cutting a check for superconventional non-obejectional things built in China.
    #China

    Anti-Airbnb vandals hit Montreal building as advocates push for crackdown - YouTube
    Anti-AirBNB grafitti. Protests want total ban. ‘This new building could have been used for housing but instead it was used for tourists.’

    The rush in the door for ETFs such as the new Bitcoin spot ETFs is probably not stable long-term holders, but people wanting to make a profit. Bianco.

    If it is people putting in 1% and who have their money mostly in a mutual fund, they will be more tolerant of drawdowns.

    International Threat Actors are Targeting Children to Steal Money from Banks & Major Corporations - YouTube
    Because ‘automatic scanning doesn’t work.'


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 01,2024
  • Protesting farmers 'bombard' riot police with manure as they clash in Brussels - YouTube
    How to make people stop supporting you in 1 easy step?


  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • Romance scammers target Americans - YouTube
    The scammers have playbooks. They all target the same thing, love and money.

    CIA terminates whistleblower prompting flood of sexual misconduct complaints | NewsNation Prime - YouTube
    #Assange

    Alberta RCMP officer charged for allegedly sharing non top secret data with Republic of Rwanda - YouTube

    22-year-old woman Jailed for over 8 years after falsely accusing 3 men of trafficking and raping her. : AllThatIsInteresting/

    FBI agent, others warn of Venezuelan gang entering into US - YouTube
    Extortion of businesses run by Venezuela etc. They have no record keeping in Venezuela, so US authorities don't know if they have a criminal or not.
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024
  • Migrants accused of robbery spree across NYC - YouTube

    Deepfakes Used to Trick Man into Sending $25M to Scammers - YouTube
    They did a fake video conference with an employee and had him send funds to 25 accounts.
    He was a week into the scam when he contacted people at his company and they said they didn't know what he was talking about.
    They used publicly available footage of the people they wanted to impersonate.
    Is the solution just passing a law? when the problem is people in another country? but you can do it from within the country anonymously.

    Nigerian man charged with sextortion of B.C. teen - YouTube
    The youth men what he thought was a girl on the net and after a couple minutes talk she asked for nudes and he sent them. Then she attempted to blackmail him for gift cards. He committed suicide. Mounties on project EPA were led to Nigeria.
    44% increase in sexual extortion reports last year. Most were male. 80% over age 18.

    Romance scams resulted in $60m leave Canadians' accounts in 2020. Last year $360.
    Investigating the con that combines romance scams and crypto fraud (Marketplace) - YouTube
    It's much easier to track large amounts of money when it's crypto than would be cash.
    ‘I have never had anyone call me honey and baby before. It’s really sweet.'
    It usually has attractive people's photos and nice treatment and seeing (fake) inital big gains, the promise of becomming rich. Sometimes the duped does the initial reachout when responding to an advertisement.
    It's called ‘pig butchering.’

    Officials: Mexican drug cartel targets Native American reservations with fentanyl - YouTube


  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024
  • ATM thieves use glue and 'tap' function to drain accounts at Chase Bank - YouTube
    New ATM scam.
    Go to ATM and card doesn't work when you put your card in the slot (they put glue in the slot). So someone behind you says ‘He you can just use the ’tap' against a chip on the ATM. So then, because it's not just active while your card is in it, but rather is active for a few minutes after it gives you your cash unless the customer taps a button to ‘log out’, the next person in line can keep withdrawing.
    Chase bank denied the fraud claims of the customers. Chase would not review surveilance video because ‘it was under $5000’.


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • Survivors of Vallejo 'Gone Girl' case respond after police apologize for calling them liars - YouTube

    Taxi fraudsters in Toronto scam people out of thousands of dollars - YouTube
    He thought it was a cab. They ask for a CC instead of cash. Then they steal or take off with the card. Authoritises are saying not to confront these people because they can be violent.

    False Accusation leads to Mans Death - YouTube
    He was accused of sexual assault to a 16-year-old's older brother on a bus. He beat the 62-year-old up as he got off the bus. Bus cameras show there was no sexual assault. Requests for the security video were denied news organization, so how can we know what happened?

    Kansas City Chiefs fans' deaths: Who is Jordan Willis? | Dan Abrams Live - YouTube
    One man works with international AIDS vaccine.
    The three were highschool friends and the became friends when he moved back to town. They went to KC Chiefs games he paid for. He hung out with them once in a while, but not really part of that crew of friends. He mostly stayed at home. This all according to reporters who went door to door knocking.
    He had 2 pitbulls.
    People know more than they're saying, reportedly assumedly.
    Everyone is waiting for tox reports.
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • Woman pleads guilty after making false rape claim in Florida - YouTube

    Here's What Really Happened on January 6th - YouTube (Tucker)
    2020 pandemic oppression, compromised election cycle Nov 2020.
    Proof of entrapment? or just condemining of the strategy employed by the government?

  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08,2024
  • Campbell police department's package decoy program appears to be scaring off porch pirates - YouTube


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023
  • New Fed Database Will Track Law Enforcement Officer Misconduct - YouTube

    US inmate freed after 48 years in prison for murder he didn't commit | BBC News - YouTube

    Careful with This New Way They are Targeting Tourist in Medellin Colombia 🇨🇴 - YouTube
    For recent years, the thing was girls would slip guys scope and walk off with his stuff, but recently it seems they think they can get more out of you by kidnapping you.
    One of the kidnappings took place on the popular tourist and local hike ‘Tres Cruces’.


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • Is It Even Possible to Avoid the Gift Card Scam? - YouTube

    Undercover surveillance teams cracking down on retail theft in LA - YouTube

    Lawsuit accuses fertility doctor of secretly impregnating woman with his own sperm - YouTube

    Frost Bank teller accused of taking $180K from 86-year-old who considered her 'like a daughter' - YouTube

    SF store owners are having a hard time because theft of property under (I think $5000) a certain value isn't a crime, according to a law passed a couple years ago. Can't they just put their price tags above that value and offer a discount at the till (if the government isn't going to help them)?

    Officer Violates Kid For "Disrespect" | Charges Dropped | Cop Investigated by IA - YouTube

    Cuidado con la nueva modalidad de robo mediante el 'cambiazo' de tarjeta SIM - YouTube
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6A5fCN4I8Qw

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4o8BmPjAd0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NijOWT0IpLc

  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eDgSWQuUDA

    Is what is common in Colombia coming to (southern) US now? Americans, as in Colombia, would be easy targets it seems. Or is it the fake Uber driver thing that's been going for a while in Austin?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=223YSYCuh8k

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YseWLifM-XY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epYKpDfkt0w

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDjrTMBxg2Y

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpMMewoUywA

    Organized crime on the rise, especially in NZ.

    Self checkout is helping criminals.

    NZ even high earners having a hard time making ends meet, inflation.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyaR_LXtsjA

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR723ap2OvY

    Already knew the events, but didn't have evidence until 2018 when one of the culprit made admissions.

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 25,2023



  • The front door, user access point, is way majority of malware is successful. Not the server or whatever. 75% through email. 35% of attacks bypass the network firewalls.

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 18,2023




  • Wtf are unconscious people not on video monitoring to prevent this known risk?



    TSA Agents Caught Stealing From Luggage - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04,2023
  • Target and other stores losing a lot of money to theft. “The common thread or the consistency in that end of the barbell, is these stores tend to be located in cities where they're not prosecuting this type of crime. And so people are going in, and they know that I can steal X amount of dollars. And as long as I steal that amount, and not anything more, I'm not going to get prosecuted.” They lock more stuff up, leading to a less quality shopping experience. ... Does the word ‘shrink’ mean ‘theft’? ... In Cali, thefts up to $950 not treated as felonies but rather as misdemeanors, since a year or two ago. Will the stores leave, when they have to report lower earnings? or are the earnings still that good?



    Cop accused of stealing debit card on the job; How the victims tracked the LAPD officer down - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023





  • Ecuador pres candidate assassinated using Colombian assassins.

    Mexican cartels said to rule narcos in Ecuador (and Colombia too).
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 05,2023

  • It takes 7 minutes to walk 600 yards at 3 mph. Call was less than 3 minutes.
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 19,2023
  • ‘I don't dial 911 anymore': Oakland's 911 crisis got a lot worse - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 03,2023

  • Protests in France for days.
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 04,2023
  • Lots of reports of retail theft.
  • May, 2023
  • May 18,2023
  • 'Cartels control everything that happens here': Arizona rancher | Morning in America - YouTube 

  • One of the only recent headlines I've seen where police appear benevolent to society. They should stick to violent crime and important theft, and they might do a lot better.
  • May, 2023
  • May 12,2023
  • A paper says governments aren't responding to private sector or voter demand with new (anti-globalism) trade restrictions, but are instead driving this trend.

    The data shows that right after Covid, firms were looking to add new suppliers to diversify supply chains but crucially trying to maintain their relationships with existing suppliers.


    Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing? And if so, why? And what is next? | NBER 
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 12,2023

  • Juice jacking. If you use a cable that has 4 wires (which are fairly standard, the kind you can use to connect your phone to your computer), obviously data can be transferred through them, including malware. So use a power outlet and your wall charger for your phone. Technically speaking, you can use a 2-wire cable (only transmits power) even with a unit set up to send malware.

     
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 09,2023

  • 1000 a month. 'Now not just the rich.'

    'These kidnappers know your every move.'

    'Men posing as police...'

    'Positive paranoid psychopaths.'
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 08,2023
  • BREAKING NEWS: Florida Sheriff Announces Arrest Of 12-Year-Old And 17-Year-Old For Triple Murder - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 26,2023

  • One idea presented is that this type of criminal feels more safe making threats (and maybe actions) from inside that he would if he were on the street where he would have to face repercussions for such things.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 28,2023

  • The problem that can arise when populations allow governments to grant professional licenses, which serve the purpose traditionally of giving clients accountability from their professionals.
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 20,2022

  • Lots of people talking about these new couple ways to hack / scam phones and accounts (like bank accounts).

    Prevention: never tell anyone your email address you use for those accounts, have a phone number you use for them which no one knows, don't publish any information about yourself on social media so people can't just look you up and get it, never let your phone or computer be touched by anyone else ever, and never put anything in your computer (flash card, SD card) which has been out of your sight ever. You can also change your phone number frequently. You perhaps should change it when a spouse becomes an ex, or a friend becomes not a friend. Never click on links on any message sent to you ever, even if it's a job offer or a friend saying it's urgent. Don't open attachments either. (You can also check the domain in any link and the domain in the email very carefully, and know what you're looking for). Since you can't run a cursor over a linked text on phones (and on desktop you might accidentally click it when you hover over it) all email services should auto-print all links as the actual link).
     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 18,2022
  • Two judges ordered to pay $200M to victims of 'kids for cash' scheme - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 29,2022

  • First use of term 'climate criminals' for celebs I've heard.
     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 08,2022

  • May, 2022
  • May 31,2022
  • 7 wounded in Vegas biker gangs freeway shooting, police say - ABC News 
  • May, 2022
  • May 13,2022
  • Catalytic converters being stolen from parked cars in US

    They saw the catalytic converters off (filled with platinum, rhodium, and palladium) by sliding underneath the vehicle.

    Fixing them costs about $1500 on some vehicles. To protect against this, people are covering them with metal grills.

    A guy used Apple Airtags under the cars he wanted to target so he could track where they park. He used security cameras to avoid apprehension.

    He found a loophole to sell more than the usual limit of 1 per day per scrap yard. He formed company with the Secretary of State's office, so he could sell as many as he wanted and without proving ownership.
     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 23,2022

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 12,2022
  • US-Mexico border: More US citizen teens being used to transport migrants because they're minors and not likely to face legal consequences

    They can make hundreds of dollars per run.

    Authorities say they saw a rise in teens doing this work in 2021. They also say that the transporters know that if they drive fast enough the authorities will not pursue.

    People don't want to give these young people a record that might prevent them from being able to join the army or get certain jobs (especially if they are poor, it was said).

     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 09,2022
  • Hackers are now obtaining emails and contact stuff from PDs and gov offices, then using those to contact ISPs, tech giants, social media companies, with a fake "emergency data request."

    The companies being contacted often comply. They say the matter can't wait for a court order because it relates to an urgent matter of life and death.

    Police are allowed to bypass the need for a warrant if there's some urgent need.
  • Kidnapping ransom scam

    You get a call, and a female actress says "Dad, help me!" and the dad might say his daughters name ("Is that you, Mary?") and then they have the daughter's name.

    Or they might get the name and some other info from social media.

    They're probably not using this yet, because it's not tech that's so easily available, but be aware that DeepFake calls/videos can do this sort of thing, too. This is especially a risk if you or your loved one posts a lot of videos with them talking on social media. Henry from Techlore noted that this could even just become an automated thing one day after a data breach of phone numbers.

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 07,2021
  • Israeli police caught again planting weapons

    After pulling a guy over for using his phone driving, they planted a gun and arrested him for it. He spent a month in confinement before he was released because a video came to light.

    An Israeli docudrama in 2018 was famous because the officers in it planted a rifle in a Palestinian man's home and depicted it as a discovery. The police in that show were accused of planting a few other weapons, too.
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 15,2021
  • FBI's email was hacked and used to send emails

    Sent emails from the actual @fbi.gov email.

    Current proposed hacker: pompompurin.

    #hacking
  • Settler violence is a 'tool' Israel uses to take over Palestinian land - B'Tselem

    According to B'Tselem's recent report, Israel uses 2 techniques to take over land in the West Bank:

    1) Official annexation through the judicial system

    2) Acts of violence carried out by settlers

    B'Tselem called settler violence there systemic, organized and institutionalized.

  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 13,2021
  • Maybe UK special forces concealed unlawful killings of Afghan detainees

    Their word for it was 'failing to fix systemic issues.'

  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 03,2021
  • The Hill and others are talking still about the problem of labeling 'half of America' 'domestic terrorists'

    About 3 homicides per year in the US are possibly motivated by racial hatred. There are 15-20k homicides in the US per year.

    Below is a chart the Hill shared, which shows attacks and deaths for each year.

    The second image shows PayPal Park in San Jose, which has a capacity of 18k. So that many people are murdered per year (is that accurate?). Three of those guys on that bleacher over on the other side were possibly motivated by hate, ie possibly 'racial supremacists.'

    When they talk about the current attempt to create a political cause for 'domestic terrorism' critics talk about 'the war on terror' which they see as doing the same thing for the past 20 years.

    According to AP, this many people died in America's 'Longest War' in Afghanistan:

    American service members killed in Afghanistan through April: 2,448.

    U.S. contractors: 3,846.

    Afghan national military and police: 66,000.

    Other allied service members, including from other NATO member states: 1,144.

    Afghan civilians: 47,245.

    Taliban and other opposition fighters: 51,191.

    Aid workers: 444.

    Journalists: 72

    In the Iraq War (2003-2011), between 151k and 1m Iraqis died, estimated, and 4500 US troop deaths.




     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 13,2021
  • Netherlands struggles with drug mafia threats

    Earlier this year, a journalist covering the 'Mocro Mafia' trial of 17 members was killed. Now the PM of the country has to step up his security following threats.

    "This is completely undermining our rule of law, which has led many Dutch people to be terrified..." one of their suits said at Congress.

    Analysts drew comparisons with other drug cartel leaders, like ones in days gone by in Latin America: "It's them showing how powerful they are... saying, 'Look, we are even considering doing this.' The threats to (PM) Rutte show that in a way the Netherlands is descending into a narcostate. Not in the sense of that we have a lot of corruption at government level, or that police are crooked, but in the sense that organized crime is so big."

    Drugs in this story means cocaine and MDMA/ecstasy. These are the two drugs that follow at a distance marijuana as the most popular recreational substances there. Drug use is concentrated among young adults age 15-34.

     
  • Bow and arrow attack in Norway left some dead, others wounded

    First question that arises in my (everyone's?) mind: Was it a Muslim extremist or an anti-immigration native extremist?

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 28,2021
  • Murders up 30% in US in 2020

    ... according to the FBI's annual report. Largest increase since the report started in the 60s.
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 26,2021
  • Australian whistleblower's house attacked

    ... reportedly they smashed her windows in, and when she called local police they took 40 minutes to arrive, because when she called a second time while waiting she was told they were already there (they were at a different address).

    'Captain Louise' served in Afghanistan 2012-2013. She blew the whistle on a patrol who killed a group of farmers (10 civilians, goes the report) after the patrol commander accidentally shot one and they decided they couldn't leave witnesses.

    "Blooding"

    News reporting on this reference another story, from 2020, in which an Australian intelligence officer who said he had evidence of crimes in Afghanistan was found dead at a Canberra headquarters.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 18,2021
  • Nigeria governor tells locals to arm themselves against bandits

    For years there've been kidnappings of schools full of students in Nigeria. Sometimes they're held for years waiting for ransoms. Sometimes ransoms are paid, sometimes other strategies are used.

    Katsina State's governor has told people there to pick up guns and protect themselves, that they are not currently doing enough. He said it was morally wrong for people to sit back and allow bandits to take control of their lives.

    Katsina is the home state of the president of Nigeria. For many, if the pres can't secure that state he can't secure any part of the country, and last December bandits abducted around 300 students there. Those in charge have reportedly blamed the citizens, saying that because they're not fighting back, it's emboldening the criminals.

    Other officials have said the same thing in the past. The defense minister recently said the defense of the people should be in the hands of the people. They feel that because the government has problems protecting people, it sends the wrong message to the bandits.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 12,2021
  • Most disruptive infrastructure attack ever on U.S. soil

    Apparently. Colonial Pipeline hack. This pipeline sends a lot of the oil from Texas to New Jersey, from where it's distributed to other places. Hackers gained control of Colonial's system and are doing a ransomware action. Colonial took their all their operations offline because they didn't want the hackers to gain access to the IT that controls the pipes. They're currently handling some segments of the pipelines manually.

    We don't know too many details because Colonial hasn't given them to the DHS, reportedly.

    Some gas stations have run dry. Price of gas has already gone up 7 cents in the week, following the regular demand-supply equation. There's been panic buying and long queues, and the airline industry has been affected. Flights have been stopped and they've additional stops in order for planes to fuel up.

    The pipelines serve 90 U.S. military installations and 26 oil refineries, so the ripple effects are still to be seen.

    FBI is saying the hacker is Darkside from Russia, who usually works on big money ransom projects. They have a published list of things they won't hack, and don't seem to want to hurt normal people, although in this case gas prices effects everyone.

    A massive effort is expected to get things running again about a week after the problem started, involving the FBI and other government agencies and a task force assembled by the White House. But it depends whether they can resolve the ransomware situation.

    In recent years, the U.S. has scaled up its oil production and became a net exporter, but is now looking at returning to being an importer of oil.

     
  • Apr, 2021
  • Apr 30,2021
  • Haiti, kidnapped priests, nuns and others

    All nine people have all been released - including the two Frenchmen. No word made public if the $1m ransom was paid. The local religious society of the kidnapped Haitians thanked the French and American ambassadors for their 'discreet and effective diplomatic support.' [RFI]

    Some have noted a rise in gang kidnappings for ransom in the country over the past year.

    #Haiti #Ransom
     

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  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • Woke era might be on it's way fading out. CEOs watching what they said pretty closely. Now CEOs firing their comms group, getting candid. Palantir's Karp on short sellers. Then
    Jensen Huang ‘People with high expectations have low resilience. And resilience matters in success. I don’t know how to teach it to except to say I hope suffering happens to you. To this day I use Pain and Suffering in our company with great glee. Boy this is gonna cause a lot of pain and suffering. ... You wanna refine the character of your company. You want greatness out of them. And greatness is not intelligence. Greatness comes from character. And character isn't formed out of smart people. It's formed out of people who've suffered.'
    Most Based CEO. All-in. Is there a vibe-shift. People less concerned about cancel culture. People are speaking their mind more. But maybe the CEOs haven't really done anything risky, unlike Elon who has taken real risks and has paid the price. Taking a really difficult political stance. True risktaking by speaking truth to power.

    Shanghai elderly seek love at Ikea - YouTube
    They bring self-made snacks t a food court at Ikea
    This started when the IKEA started offering free coffee at its canteen.
    It's a ‘place to have fun’ in rising divorce rate China. People date there, but also hang out. It's an 'entertainment locaiton'. ‘They come to make friends and wile away the lonely hours.’
    In the 1970s, 10% of the residents of Shanghai were over 60 for the first time. Now 5.5m (37% of) people in Shanghai. 1/5 297m elderly in China live alone.
    ‘When I reached this age, I realized I had a yearning for love as well. So you see, people change. It’s not embarrassing to speak out. It's not only young people who need love, elderly people do to.
    'Old people actually fear lonliness. Even if we do not talk, just sitting here already gives us a sense of satisfaction.
    #Drama

    Psychologists are trained to BLAME straight white men for everything. GB News covers our new NCF Doc - YouTube
    The future generation of clinical therapists are being educated on a standard of critical race theory (not colorblind).

    RCMP Warn of an ANGRIER Canada in New Report - YouTube
    Freedom of Info Act stuff.
    ‘Anyone who opposes imposed government policy is ... an extremist.’
    ‘Coming period of recession will also accelerate the decline of living standards that the younger generations have already witnessed compared with earlier generations. Many Canadians under 35 are unlikely ever to buy a place to live.'
    People angry perhaps because they're consuming info on these subjects (actual situation in Canada) without getting a break from it. Then receiving gaslighting and gaslighting attempts. And people have to purposefully disconnect from the news for a real period of time (days) to come down.
    Perhaps one outcome will be further division of people from their friends and family, as some members say You know this new tax is not so bad, and others are outraged. Why are they focussing their anger on each other?
    Protests start to become inspiring for people, instead of just observed news.

    Matt Taibbi on How “Free Speech” Turned Into a “Far Right” Slogan - YouTube

    Abigail Shrier: How therapy culture creates victims - YouTube

    China, the sectors have profit margins driven down to almost zero. 1-3% profit margin usually. It's difficult for a company to stand out.

    China strong feeling trade war will continue, so need for economic superiority, so capital shouldn't be allocated to housing or soft tech (e-business, consumer tech). They would like all the money to go to semis, new materials or EVs. Not a natural mechanism of markets, but rather Chinese central planning.

    China, after lockdowns, people expected stronger policy response, but instead there was a crackdown in housing sector, because government wanted to deleverage from all those real estate developers, which has drained liquidity from the banking sector. In addition, more regulations in stock market, banking sector, anti-corruption campaign in health care and financial industries.
    Lack of trust in government, because you used to know where to go but not now, in investing.
    Middle class wealth has been shrinking for last 2 years. People feel much poorer, frustrated. Middle class now worrying about their jobs, but before there weren't really layoffs like this.

    The Reality of China's Economy with Wang Dan, Chief Economist at Hang Seng Bank China - YouTube
    China, new government started last year, and they have a new agenda layed out for next 20 years. Supply chain upgrade, China becomming richer, individuals richer. Ambitious goals. Green tech, new industrial structure tied to carbon emission reductions. Growth could even increase pace. Top officials don't have willingness to talk about details with public. Public doesn't understand policy anymore.
    It might just be too difficult to explain to the public.

    China, question of middle income trap. China was never a welfare state like Brazil. No intention to make it one. Unemployment insurance is nonexistant basically. If a person loses a job, they don't think the government should help them reflexively. One of the reasons they have more savings.

    China, state owned sector dominating most strategic industries and taking over most profitable projects. So private sector, how will it fare? A middle or large company even can go bankrupt in China. Innovation happens most, and most jobs created, in private sector.

    China, if supply chain moves out, whole ecosystem will follow it. Stress for cities. Shinking in local labor market and export.

    Moving supply chains out means picking between China and a combination. Like either China or a combination of Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia. Deal with several labor markets, several countries.

    China, buying things is cheap, cheaper than before, and a good variety of stuff. So people not demandning structural changes as much as otherwise. If prices don't increase, people won't spend on durable goods.

    There are ways to get out your honest opinion without criticizing. Try to find some constructive solution or way of debating certain topics. I find that very useful. - Wang Dan

    The public will buy the nationalistic message. If you say the Chinese or Western economy is collapsing, they buy it.

    AI, people fearful about applications. ‘I think we would embrace AI wholeheartedly if we had a recent history like the 1990s, but instead we had a whole decade of economic problems, this social unrest, riots and people screaming at each other 24/7 on social media, crazy politicians, fundamental uncertainty about the social fabric of America. I think that put people in a defensive crouch.’
    AI's Influence on the Economy with Nathan Labenz - YouTube


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 15,2024

  • Canadian military relaxes entry requirements to boost recruitment - YouTube
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 11,2024
  • Good news: the prestige of a university doesn't matter. 10 years later, the salaries are the same. - YouTube


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 05,2024
  • Exiled Chinese artist Ai Weiwei: 'Censorship in West exactly the same as Mao's China' - YouTube
    'Sometimes even more ridiculous.' If two professors give opinions, a kind of private talk, then they have to be fired. It is considered attitude, not private opinion. You cannot talk about the truth anywhere.
    Certain matters, you just cannot touch.
    ‘Art is a special form of freedom of speech. If freedom of speech doesn’t exist we cannot call it art. And any artist who's not an artist is a dead artist.'
    Artists in this society are mostly corrupted. Seeking money or fame, no one really cares.
    ‘Are you a real artist, or are you too arrogant?’
    ‘I cannot exercise my rights or my art, but still I can live well there.’
    #Weiwei
    "Many of My Shows Have Been Canceled": Chinese Artist Ai Weiwei on Israel, Gaza & Censorship - YouTube

    Even if you're a person who default-postion doesn't see anything wrong with wearing a front-facing camera (glasses with cameras), and says ‘I have the right to do what I want’ and that ‘public space you can do what you want’, won't they, over time, feel the social pressure of sitting down at a table with friends or new acquaintances or business partners who react very negatively to their imposition and invasion/threat to privacy of that person, that they after a few instances just say it's not worth it and I guess I will respect other people after all?
    So if you want to see people be more respectful of this, your solution should maybe be not to focus on defense, ie masks, etc, but rather on low-grade persistent offense, ie calling people out, confronting them, when they are being invasive and annoying, but not fighting them, so that you can continue to do so and so that they will be worn down through education to change.

    Girls are more likely than parents to be liberal, men more conservative, GenZ.
    Why the political worldviews of young men and women are increasingly diverging | DW Analysis - YouTube
    Boys and men are behind in education at every age, every subject. Scandanavia is the biggest gap, men are most behind. The gap is as pronounced as they were the other way around in the 70s or whatever. There's no difference in testing intelligence, but there is in who finishes and tries in education.
    Some of this has to do with girls maturing at younger age, so they are more ready for responsiblities or whatever of school.
    ‘Useless’ and ‘worthless’. ‘Are they needed? Are then necessary?’
    You can look at the opportunities for men. They can work part time. They can stay at home and raise children. These were things denied to men who had been the default breadwinner.
    Structural disadvantages. Blacks. Poverty, neighborhoods, frontline work.
    Rich men, who don't have to worry about being the breadwinner because they can easily provide and because their partners often can also provide, it's easier for them to be feminist and say there's no problem. Poorer men, who can't provide and have to focus on trying to be a provider (and traditional gender role). Zero sum. Toxic masculinity blames men for their own plight. Using the word ‘toxic’ is toxic itself, you've signalled your politics and that you are their enemy, and they will stop listening.
    Andrew Tate is idolized, not just listened to. Not just important but profound. He speaks truth, he vilifies women and feminism, mocks empathy and kindness. He socializes boys a certain way. Can they be deprogrammed? The reason they find a market is young men are struggling with questions and there's nobody else trying to give an answer, except feminists saying ‘Stop being so toxic.’ We have a problem with strong male role-models.
    ‘They don’t care about male suicide.' (It is 4x women.) Where do they mention the gender gap on the government site? They do LGBTQ, veterans, urban, which are all smaller disparities. No wonder Andrew Tate can pick up followers.
    Fathers need to understand that and how they are valuable to their children, without the element of being the provider. What men do for children and families, society.

    There's no shared culture now. A teacher can't mention any TV show that more than 1/4 of the students have seen. There is no movie half the students have seen.


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 01,2024
  • Dating apps are the lowest quality leftovers. -HoeMath

    US study finds young men want children more than women, but experts aren't surprised - YouTube
    Age 18-34, 57% of men, 45% women, want children. Women face changes to body, impediment to career.

    Ben Carson Warns Of 'An Entirely New Threat To Our Country' - YouTube
    Washington is losing its legitimate claim to govern the American people.
    It has stopped even pretending to execute the charge laid out by our founders.
    The Federal beurocracy, MSM, academia, Hollywood, Big Tech, and every other nexus of power ... has turned its fire against conservatives, against Christians, against anyone ... crisis of legitimacy.
    America was founded on the idea that sovereignty comes from the consent of the governed.
    Young men, particularly young white men, aren't signing up in great numbers anymore ... they don't want to fight for a country that hates them.
    That spends trillions abroad while their towns are falling apart.
    While their jobs are shipped overseas without a second thought.
    That takes whatever little social capital they have left and redistributes it to others not them.
    Who can blame them?
    He said that what governments and school authorities are doing to children, coming down on them hard with the law if they try to pray, etc, is nothing less than child abuse.
    #BenCarlson

    Handyman warns of migrants catching on to squatter rights - YouTube

    Based Councilman executes strategy to test if migrant supporters are willing to do what they preach - YouTube


  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • The Dystopian CULT of Looks MAXXING (Men are not okay) - YouTube

    Unfortunately NBA Teams Have Solved Basketball… - YouTube
    The most efficient offense. Pick and roll. Everyone playing the same way. And it's just shooters.
    They're all tall, wingspan is becomming the #1 factor whether you can be drafted at all, they're all athletic. Scoring is a super easy task. The ball is moving faster than a person. People drawing soccer-style fouls. Players not even sweating.
    Peoples suggestions: reduce point power of the 3 (perhaps by moving the line). No 3 second rule in the key. Call travelling and carrying (the league has sold out). Bring back hand checks and cut bumps. Let players play d without getting fouls. Call offensive fouls.

    Unc & Ocho react to Beyonce's "Texas Hold 'Em" being barred from country radio stations | Nightcap - YouTube

    You don't need to win military skirmishes to take over Central and Eastern Europe. All you need to do is control the media and the social media ecosystem, because that's what controls elections, and if you simply get the right administration into power, they control the military. Organized political influence operation. - Mike Benz

    Why are Hollywood movies falling out of favor in China? - YouTube
    Comedies.

    Vancouver residents taught to repair, not waste, at free event - YouTube
    spec.bc.ca
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024
  • Grammys. Taylor won album of the year, only person to do it 4x. Didn't hear any of the songs though throughout the year I don't think. Some hip hop artists gratuitously grandstanded. Not one good song. Not even one. I guess if you make it about not music (but rather looks, news, virality) after a few years you don't get music anymore. They also neutered rockstars with laws and politics (mostly laws I'd guess), so no one even wants to become a rockstar anymore, and there's no avenue to it because everyting is consumed before it ever gets to a completed stage. Will this era be like the 10s and 20s. We don't remember any songs from then. When we hear one, it's unappealing. What finally came out of all that was jazz (and blues but blues seems to have been a smaller, undergroundish alternative trend. It wasn't until the 50s and really the 60s when music we think of as good was made again.
    Is it that conditions would somehow have to turn to 1. make it possible to be bad and a rockstar, have people shun/no access to devouring tools like socialmedia, and perhaps a new instrument type. Perhaps our era continues in its dismal trend, increasing repression and conformity and not permitting being ‘bad’ (not permitting in a serious way) for decades, and then maybe a war or not (which would create relief of population and increased freedom and cheapness of things/property/jobs and remind people of sweeter things, and their children perhaps will agian be comfortable and rebel en masse.

    If You Can Choose Your Gender Can You Choose Your Race? - YouTube

    San Francisco ramps up nighttime enforcement at UN Plaza - YouTube

    2024 Festivals Are Not Selling Well - YouTube
    ‘The year of the underwhelming festival headliner.’
    Relying on classic artists from 80s, 90s, 2000s.
    ‘Banking on nostalgia.’
    Next Cochella is headlined by Lana, TylerTC, Doja, ‘and No Doubt.’
    People saying the lineups are made by AI or something because there's no coherence. Just TikTok random mixup.
    Maybe labels are getting involved, saying if you want our artist we want ‘this much.’
    I wonder if this will also happen with travel. Travel will run out of good locations since they're all pretty played out now, and culture in many places is just bland-WesternHollywoodMovie-ized.
    It only takes one really bad turn out to make a company not get returns and they might not be able to continue.

    A dumb phone in Europe might be called a ‘weekend phone.’ Making choices about what parts of technology contribute to better quality of life.

    Inflation, crime, etc is a choice. You don't have to have them. It's a policy choice. It's saying yes or no. Grafitti, filth in Paris. Tucker. America used to have nice cities like other world cities.

  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024
  • Sports Illustrated publisher pulls transgender boxing story from magazine : Journalism/

    BC man called racist and cancelled from paramedic duties after trying to save Powell River’s name - YouTube

    Edmonton business owners remain fearful of gangs and extortion attempts despite recent arrests - YouTube
    ‘In front of the police’. ‘How?’
    On commenter: "I don't understand where they're getting the courage to do this"
    Uhh, it's called, they don't have to worry about being shot, because if we had armed self defense in canada, you'd see a lot of dead arsonists.
     Business owners not on social media, don't go to community events or go out, for fear of being known.
    Targeting Indians.
     
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • ‘New collar’ jobs (actually a 2016 coining). ‘I am always sceptical of new phrases.’ You need some training but not necesarily a college degree. You do need to get the training, the experience. 2008 returnships at Goldman, mostly for moms who wanted to go back, veterans, people who had a gap in their resume. Student debt, college grads not trained for the particular job they're going into, and tradeschools doing ‘better.’

    The World is Teaching America How to Play Basketball – Data Analysis - YouTube

    FEATURE: Social media trends driving Britain's Japanese literature boom

    - YouTube
    Grass roots organization. Organic. There's not going to be any problems, we just want to be heard. Really it's about motivating other people to do what's next.
    Pennsylvania lawmakers look to help Texas tackle border crisis - YouTube
    Hard to ingore the high-profile, high-conflict between a state and a president.

    Dozens of cars impounded after police bust street takeovers across Los Angeles - YouTube
    This means adults amassing at an intersection and doing burnouts.

    German farmers block streets with tractors in protest of proposed agricultural tax increase - YouTube

    Another rave pops up under I-805 bridges in Sorrento Valley - YouTube
    Hundreds. Powered by a gen carried on foot, because you can only get there walking. Advertised on SM. Tickets are sold (meaning organizers could be held liable).
    Illegal because held on state land.
    Helicopter loudspeaker used to break up the gathering. Their cars were towed as they were leaving.

    NY restaurants push back on anti-tipping campaign, warn of layoffs - YouTube

    Chicago area father tells police why he shot and killed his wife and 3 daughters - YouTube
    Middle eastern name.
    Dad accused of killing daughter over prom dispute - YouTube
    Middle eastern name.
    Father arrested for slapping boy who allegedly bullied daughter - YouTube
    Dad makes daughter walk as punishment for bullying - YouTube

    'This is outrageous': Megyn Kelly weighs in on 50-year-old man identifying as a 13-year-old girl - YouTube (RebelNews, through MegynKelly)

    Alberta students to require parental consent to use new pronouns or name at school - YouTube



  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 30,2024
  • If you ask almost anyone, they blindly state their hate for Colombus, and anyone who discovered/conquered lands during that era.

  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 26,2024
  • In 1910s it was sitll possible to be a Supreme Court justice without having been to lawschool. Later, it became focussed on only a small number of schools people would look for (parially because like 50% of people go to college rather than less than 10%), rather than passing some other test, like passing the bar. Not good/good for career. Less open to autodidactic. Samo.

    Recent fight over Harvard Extension School. ‘That’s not really Harvard.' Thought about as elite clubs, not the place someone recieved knowledge or grew.

    Replacement of offensive words (which can easily be banned on platforms) with similar inoffensive, unblockable words. I see a lot of YouTubers talking about ‘corn’ now when they mean ‘porn’.


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • Tents torn down as workers, police remove Edmonton encampment - YouTube

    Quebec announces $300M for tutoring after teachers' strike - YouTube

    Wong Kar-wai’s new TV series draws Shanghai tourism - YouTube

    Sub shop sees miraculous turnaround after homelessness encampment cleared - YouTube (FOX)

    DVDs and why I'm going back to them - YouTube

    Why do people cheer when an unarmed American woman wearing a flag is show by police while crawling through a shattered glass window? ‘There’s this insanity that has taken hold in the minds and hearts of many otherwise reasonable American citizens, where they hate Trump so much, they're so deeply embedded, they've sold their souls to the establishment ..." said Higgins. ‘This was interefering with the business model of the establishment.’

    Technocracy. Transhumanists.

    Vivek: Americans Can Handle the Truth About 9/11 - YouTube
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08,2024
  • Harvard President Gay to Resign, Crimson Says - YouTube

    Video shows moment Las Vegas judge gets attacked during sentence hearing - YouTube

    How citizen investigators are helping the FBI track down Jan. 6 rioters - YouTube
    ‘Sedition hunters’ using tech (including facial recognition software) to track all the protesters, who PBS calls ‘rioters’. FBI was overwhelmed by the number of tips on the thosands of protesters.
    Unfortunately, comments are turned off on this video. 1200 of the 3000 who entered were charged. There is a 5-year SoL. Some FBI have resigned over charged being brought against these cases. Members of Congress have also opposed this.
    Do you know that during the German occupation of Polish cities, 40% of citizens were collaborators with the Nazis, providing information on their neighbors and family which sent them to concentration camps.

    We have leaders who are 'unfailingly negative' about the country, says Harvard's Arthur Brooks - YouTube
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 02,2024
  • Los Angeles Residents Take Desperate Measures Amid Rising Crime | Vince Ricci - YouTube

    Funding for Ivys is down.

    Urawaka. 70% of Japanese girls have a secondary, anonymous social media account they use to talk about geeky hobbies and complain about school or work, and don't want their real friends to know about. They show another side of their personality. Also sex topics.
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023
  • RUSIA | Una fiesta de famosos "casi desnudos" escandaliza al Kremlin | EL PAÍS - YouTube

  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • Report: Canadian generosity hits lowest point in 20 years - YouTube

    Dumb 'Promposal' Ends in Injury and Lawsuits. - YouTube
    All to make a video to post online for the public.

    Elon Musk Plans to Open a University in Texas - YouTube
    #Education #Musk
    'Filanthropy'?

    Boston Mayor Hosts NO WHITES Holiday Party for 'ELECTEDS OF COLOR' ONLY: Rising Reacts - YouTube

    The grift is not something to be embarassed about ‘anymore’. It's now seen as high status, because the most visibly high status people are all doing it. There's also no point in ‘investigating’ it for journalists, because the people are doing it like bragging. Anything promising a way out for a no-way-out situation looks good to people, where no one making minimum wage can afford a 2-bedroom anywhere.

    The Downfall of Amazon: Dangerous Products, Fake Reviews & Vanishing Brands - YouTube

    ‘The ability to order something at 9pm and have it arrive at 7am the next causes me to make impulse purchases that I wouldn’t otherwise do.' - Louis Rossman. Combine this with an online store that has a lot of very low quality products. There's nowadays much less brand name things on Amazon, and have been replaced with low quality. In the stores, little items like screws are often stolen out of the bags, Rossman noted, even if he'd rather go there and pay a bit of a premium.

    Someone said ‘the branded era is over,’ meaning that because of reviews you would no longer have to look for a trusted brand and could buy a no name with good reviews. However, on a system like Amazon they're stuffed with fake reviews.

    ‘No name products that have really good reviews that are complete garbage.’

    As a seller, Amazon has given full refunds for people who buy a product, the wrong product for what they need (like a computer screen), then destroy it (trying to make if fit), then message Amazon for a refund, all in a few hours. As a seller, you pay for that.

    Rossman thinks that the people still selling on Amazon are people who make the type of (low quality) product that can't compete on a (better) type of marketplace.
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bYVC8XdV2w

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4epcrJ66gQI

    This isn't super relevant to ‘today’ because pros have probably always had the same situation, but there have been headlines about people (women) having instagram/tiktok regret after becomming nude/sex/whatever workers on those platforms. Did just so much time pass in which the negative consequences of selling that were just forgotten to culture? Traditionally it seems everyone advised against going that way, but maybe it was forgotten after like the 60s or something, and more in the recent generations? and maybe it had something to do with the slowly increasing selling of more graphic/personal sexuality on TV, movies, music, promotion.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCPWuk1i_Jw

    Harvard ranked last out of 254 schools in the US in terms of free speech etc.

    There's nothing wrong with criticizing Israel, Ackman said, but you can't talk about ‘eliminating’ a people or group or something similar to that.

    Allowing people to say hateful things, threatening things, creates a hostile environment not condusive to learning.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKeOeKw5dy4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQ7VOu-5MTk

    ‘What the prison population is shifting towards is more political crime, more white collar crime. More things that aren't really crimes.' - Shkreli

    Omegle shutting down after 14 years. The guy doesn't want to have a heart attack in his 30s, can't economically or psychologically continue. Because, like the telephone, it is a tool sometimes used by people in even abusive ways, but, unlike the telephone, its a tool that can do something no other tool can do, allow users to meet strangers in a safe way. He built it (and would have otherwise liked to continue maintaining it if not for the legal and personal attacks) to connect strangers in a safe way, total strangers, to talk about anything they wanted, a philosophical discussion randomly or whatever, something not possible anywhere else. In his explanation blog, he mentions that he was raped as a child (don't know what these words indicate but whatever) and that he felt safe exploring things using Omegle because no one could actually reach him.

    I actually had assumed Omegle wasn't a thing anymore, as I haven't heard it mentioned in like 10 years. Onward with the destruction of actual people and real interactions or actuation through the current version of the internet.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AbHGi62KQ0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuIfez3Vf6c

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1GxuNceLj4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wC18ihmmSxk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sAdisqKsaM

    Open 6 to 6, and some are open evenings or weekends.

    Under 3 years old, 4 children per group. Over 3, there are 7 children per group.

    ‘I don’t understand why men don't rebel. They should.'



  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6W1kcdFCq0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqHKMovMWaQ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18ZjLG7EPGw

    Recent science has it that fame isn't fleeting, it isn't 15 minutes. Most people who appeared significantly in news retain their fame long afterward. Also, it might be that there is not much revolving door, that there isn't much people coming in and displacing already famous people.

    Japan: Livestreamers/content makers from US and other non-Asian countries have been making a public nuisance of themselves in Japan for fame. One was arrested after a citizen stood up to him. Talk of banning all streaming in public.

    A few years ago after a dangerous incident using drones, all drones were banned within a week, after which they rolled that ban back and created laws.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lU2NIk9-JJg

    Is there another part of economics where a country that has a high minimum wage/rich economy has few tourists, and those it gets are people with money, so their local culture and society are preserved, whereas cheap/poor countries get massive influxes of misbehaviour which degrades their culture? Japan never had as much tourism as now, because the yen is very cheap. Countries like Thailand and Colombia are traditionally cheap (although there misbehaviour has less of an effect because their culture isn't like in Japan).

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0sl8rhKhAg

    Less than 10% of London police carry.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fm_MCdsQs8

    Maybe a bad thing, maybe not necesarily? How good are schools now? Education doesn't just come from schools these days. Do kids get enough education even without so much school, for the jobs they will fill?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ck7Krz7QcxU

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4d-LnwuSp0U

    Are some countries just ones were when people have guns they'll shoot in public spaces more? Or is it all countries?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iihUZtevV2k

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 25,2023
  • Why Are Americans Losing Faith in the Value of College? | Amanpour and Company - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 18,2023

  • How Greeks are getting squeezed off their own public beaches | Focus on Europe - YouTube 

    Illicit business practice. Sometimes tipped off before inspections. Covering parts of beaches with umbrellas and charging for chairs. However, the businesses say visitors want to rent the sun lounges. Some visitors complain about it, in terms of tourist reputation of the island.

    The world kinda robs moments. - D Glover


    Why period poverty is making Ghanaian girls missing out on school | DW News - YouTube 

    Music awards. BlackPink won best group, IceSpice won best new female (and everyone said ‘best looking new female to men’). T Swift won album and best artist (runners up Doja and Shakira, who made a lot of headlines this year because of drama with her ex-boyfriend lyrics, and Karol G who has been filling statiums). There is a rock category, filled with bands who've been active for 20 to 40 years now. Lana won alternative. The only new thing was Peso Pluma I guess.

    Song performances were all hiphop/latin pop.


    Loudspeaker message outside NYC migrant shelter warns new arrivals they are 'not safe here' - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023

  • Young women 20-30 are doing better than ever, outperforming men in many categories, jobs, earnings, relative to young men. SInce women prefer to date up (someone who's better than them) the pool of desireable men is decreased. Also, women ‘wait for the offer' from a man. They don't seem comfortable in occupying this traditionally-male role. - Psychacks

    People are having less marriages, less couples, and even less hooking up.

    The price tag of a young woman is higher, so there are less men for them, so they ultra-compete for these 10% of men, and these valuable men have so much optionality they may decide to forgo marriage and just hook up forever. ‘The men who have what women want are the least likely to give it to them. From their perspective, the womens demands are too expensive, and they only become MORE expensive as a function of time.’

    25% of women unmarried at 40, up 25% in 10 years (this stat seems to mean little though).

    Ending tipped wage system will hurt the people it's trying to help: Fifty/50 Group's Scott Wiener - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 14,2023
  • Did I mention Taylor Swift mania. Not since Michael Jackson and Madonna, maybe.

    This cherrypicked line created a lot of buzz and speculation, but as usual when we saw a real video 5 minutes long, it appeared she freaked out (for whatever reason) and didn't like the guy.

    Reports (true?) people on several different planes have freaked out, tried to get off plane mid way, etc.



    Government was used by political groups to make marriage basically stupid for men to enter into, as they are financially liable after a split. This may be dated from alimony/spousal support laws. For a long time, there was no seeming reaction, but now it seems to have caught up. Women, on the other hand, maybe since around the popularity of Sex in the City, seek something more casual and a string of relationships/hookups.
     
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 05,2023
  • Marriage

    Education first.
    Work second.
    Marriage third.
    Then the baby carriage.
    To be in a ‘better spot’ relationship wise when they get married and when they have kids.

    Since the 70s, higher income marriage has been about steady. Middle income was at the same 80% rate in the 70s but has steadily declined more than 10%, and lower income, which was 60% is now 40%.

    Since the 60s high school grads have decreased. And their incomes. Women have a more secure footing. One member of the financial undertaking of marriage, the man, is less marriageable.

    Also, there is less religion, it is said. A lot of babies are born out of wedlock in some parts of the world, but in others, like Japan, only 2% or babies are so born.

  • ...

    People talk about how movies, even if people know they aren't good, people will go to the theater anyway or watch them anyway, because they know they'll be Number 1, or cost a lot, or people talked about them a lot, or they're part of a series, and some people just go to make videos of themselves reacting to the movie.

    ...


    ...


    Series of home invasions target Asian families in Oakland Hills, police sources tell I-Team - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 03,2023

  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 19,2023


  • ...

    Tech companies, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, so big Hollywood companies can't compete, some say, in streaming.

    ...

    Musk said that he used to be good friends with Sergei Brin (or was it Larry Page?) and they used to talk on the phone about the dangers of AI, and Musk said the Google exec wasn't as concerned and at one point even called Musk a specie-ist, and Musk pondered ‘As opposed to a non-specie-ist?' and whether that was better.

    I wonder what the Google exec's current position is on this. Journalists?

    ...



    Will Messi change soccer in the US?

    ...


    Miranda Lambert stops show to scold fans for taking selfies: 'P****** me off!' - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 14,2023

  • ...



    Writers strike expands to actors.

    Every media company is cutting jobs.

    Streaming. There's no bonus for good performance on streaming.

    ESPN. Revenues are declining and sports costs are going up.

    Paramount and Showtime streaming are combining. HBO and Discovery. Aggregation.

    Everyone was chasing Netflix. Now they're scaling back instead. Not so easy to replicate. “We'll have a smaller streaming service.”

    ...

    “The age of OnlyFans regret”

    ...

    “Dating apps make people horrible and ruthless.” - Kidology

    “Sabotaging our own ability to find people we would be compatible with, or develop compatibility with over time."
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 03,2023
  • Recent months, headlines have had delivery people (for restaurants etc) not deliver food (photos of the rotten food from their order), not deliver at all, etc., unless the tip is given beforehand. Some backlash. Is this the way tipping will finally come to an end?

    I forget who, some US celeb who has a restaurant or delivery or something, put it so you can't tip, but they pay their waitors ‘a fair wage’ of $30.

    Is this how it startss? I've seen 2 ways; legislation, or that restaurants compete by putting signs that tipping is not allowed (which is the restaurant I think most people would choose).
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 26,2023
  • Has LinkedIn Ruined Your Career? - YouTube 
  • Absolute nonsense from John Campbell about Multiple Sclerosis, vaccination, and the WHO. - YouTube 
  • “Passport bros” Men from Western countries, fed up with how woke etc women are there, go to other countries to find women. Some get remote jobs.

    Some mentioned the similarity with mail-order brides, which was a thing in the 80s and 90s and 00s maybe. Interesting compare and contrast.
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 11,2023
  • Tucker Carlson takes on ‘taboos’.

    If you want to control a populations thoughts you need to ‘take charge of a society’s taboos,' said Carlson. ... ‘What we’re allowed to dislike is being dictated to us from aboce.'

    Stealing, flaunting your wealth, striking women, smoking marijuana on the street, shameless public hypocrisy, taking other people's month for not working. (Note that many of these things entered into acceptance with the popularization of 90s black rap music, gangsta rap, etc.)

    Carlson says he thinks ‘child molestation’ is being folded into acceptance, Instagram etc.

    Carlson highlighted Democrats focus on ‘white supremicism’ as ‘the most dangerous threat to our homeland’ (Biden said that). Carlson asks ‘What is it? Can anyone actually define ’white supremacy'? ‘When no one’s willing to define the offence, you can't be sure whether or not you're committing it." He says government does this to keep people off balance. ‘It's hard to relax in a country like that.' 

  • Some people starting to talk about ‘corporate press collapsing’.
  • Peso Pluma

    All of a sudden is everywhere, partially because of dearth of any interesting celebrities. (Kanye sometimes makes headlines but for fashion and controvercial ideas/statements in an era of high self-repression of speech across all the West, Taylor Swift sometimes for the price of her concert tickets or because she's dating a kind-of-badboy who kissed a security guard last time, Selena Gomez, Justin Beiber and Hailey in headlines about the two girls copying or insulting each other). The most headlines re culture are probably to do with trans and AI. There's an ongoing culture war in the West, but it seems it might be rolling over, as Elon, Tucker Carlson, alternative media presenters like Joe Rogan, Lex Fridman, have become not only more trusted but also more listened to maybe.

    PP has 1 hit song recently. It's catchy though. And the video is good. The song is good. It's a crossover or something, based on a Mexican style. But it sounds pretty American, for whatever reason. Perhaps there will be more than just 1 hit, his voice rasps and half-nasals across the sound in a distinctive way.

    Many or most of the headliners at Coachella were Latinos, who speak Spanish, sing in Spanish. I guess USA is being given back to them now. Nations are often given away and the populations don't resist superplacement. They sometimes resist invasion if it's sudden, but invaders even can go through the government or through the populace. The civilizations of the new world were mostly easy to conquer. Modern Canada and USA are fine with selling and giving away their country.
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 04,2023
  • Iowa, other states making laws to allow more under-18 workers (which is called ‘child labor’ in pop media). One was denied by federal court, saying states can further limit child labor but not expand it.

    Department of labor is finding more ‘violations’ of ‘child labor’ laws this year (like 3500 or something).
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 01,2023
  • Why is California Losing Hollywood? | David Graves - YouTube 
  • May, 2023
  • May 30,2023
  • De Santis will announce presidential run on Twitter. (Ted Cruz was the first to do so years ago.)

    Twitter had talked about possible bankruptcy. It fired 80% of staff. It still runs. But now we're not talking about that, but instead talking about its relevence. This may have been more Musk's plan, his platform for relevence, whether to dictate or participate in talking about what's going on.

    DeSantis throwing in his lot with "non-conventional media." Does this seem strange, considering presidents (Trump) have been banned from social media in the past? Maybe it doesn't matter. If they get banned, they will get TV press on that story.

  • May, 2023
  • May 24,2023
  • “AI washing” - like “greenwashing” - sounds good, and it will make your stock go up, but is it actually really?
  • May, 2023
  • May 22,2023
  • The US Army 'fat camp' helping would-be recruits lose weight - YouTube 
  • May, 2023
  • May 13,2023
  • People are using the term 'blackwashing' for the new series in which Cleopatra is played by a black woman.

    Headlines all over. Egypt is apparently suing or something for the misrepresentation. Cleopatra was Macedonian.
  • May, 2023
  • May 04,2023

  • She criticizes including DeSantis over a bill that would have a list of things that books have to meet in regards to be allowed at schools.


    A lot of the books in focus are deal with gay subjects. Is it the subject? or the depiction (perhaps too graphic descriptions)?

    Soft censorship sometimes, ban other times.


     
  • May, 2023
  • May 02,2023
  • Hollywood writers went on strike

    Last time was 15 years ago. Lots of revenue in Hollywood, but not much profit. They've been spending (investing/losing money) on developing their streaming services).

    Another thing is that currently one writer might be doing 10 eps of a series. Different from 20 or 30 years ago when it was a team. TV writers traditionally were compensated by the episode, but less so now. Those are things writers on strike also want to change.
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 27,2023
  • Army base renamed after Black veterans as military plans to stop honoring Confederates - YouTube 
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 12,2023

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 09,2023

  • Culturewar? Woke?
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 03,2023
  • Shocking! 46 Million Become Influencers As Half of Northeast China’s Population, No More Jobs! - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 23,2023
  • Trans women banned from women's athletics - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 15,2023
  • woke/wōk/verb

    An individual who believes feelings are more important than facts and anyone who disagrees is a bigot.

     
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 14,2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 01,2023
  • “These days, actually, the real news comes from comedians." - Succession (series)

    Rogan has touched on this a bit too here and there. That comedians are working directly in front of the people, it's high pressure, and you can't get away with lies or things that don't ring true. You won't be funny. And they work till 3 or 4 in the morning in front of tiny crowds sometimes. You don't make it unless you're funny (therefore have a strong idea of what is true), and you'll lose success if you compromise.
     
    Russell Peters commented on how comedians don't play colleges anymore, because they're not going to play by their rules. And commented that there was no point trying to win over PC/woke people, because he'd lose his base who finds him funny, and he wouldn't gain the PC/woke audience anyway.
  • Dilbert cartoonist was dropped by hundreds of newspapers after he publicly said

    "If nearly half of blacks are not OK with white people, according to this poll ... then that's a hate group."

    "And the best advice I would give to white people, based on the current way things are going, is to get ... away from black people," said Scott Adams
     
    Musk on Twitter took up the thread saying that for a long time the US media discriminated against blacks, and now they're being racist against whites and asians.
  • "I think there's a certain Cancel Culture on the Right just like theirs a Cancel Culture on the Left, that can make quite stupid decisions." - Joe Lonsdale

    On CNBC talking about Texas and Florida making policy reacting to bank's ESG policies which the states think have gone too far in that, and about DeSantis' limiting Disney, while these things cost the tax base (higher rates for banks) (counter-argument is that Disney shouldn't have had that relationship to start with for the past 50 years, and DeSantis said the reason he did it was that parents weren't allowed to have a say in what they were learning in schools).

    Business and politics and staying separate. "If you're not on my side you're my enemy," Becky noted.
    Although right now the Right is on the weaker side of Cancel Culturing, so their actions in this vein are perhaps more welcomed by some people.
     
    Liz Shoker commented on DeSantis, saying he was trying to tap into some base, not defining what is Woke or presenting concrete policies, but using it generally and 'going after soundbites' and 'shifting' the meaning of that word to 'be convenient to what he's saying at the moment.' 'Trying to get people though emotion ... us versus them.'  She said he was taking a 'fringe approach.' May alienate Centrists.

    40% of US whites now feel they face some discrimination, according to a recent poll.

    DeSantis hasn't announced a candidacy for Pres, but many expect it.

    I don't think we could name a more exciting candidate. Will Dimon or Cuban run?
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 22,2023


  • I actually know lots of men who do this. Not all women, but in general American women and women who give signs they might be part of this movement.
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 13,2023
  • Dicaprio has been on headlines on Facebook, where the headlines talk about him being slammed or shamed for dating some model (he's well known for dating models) who's 19.

    Yet looking at the comments there are basically no comments slamming or shaming him. Basically every comment (from men and women) is supportive of him, saying he's living his best life (what is the origin and formation of this concept? it seems to have really made ground in culture), that it's not anyone else's business, that 'she's very pretty and he's very successful.'

    This seems quite different from several years ago (although I'm not 100% sure how different), when there would have been more 'how dare he' 'that's so weird' comments from a percentage of the people (yet then also the defenders would have been there too). Decaprio's currently like 48 or something.
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 03,2023

  • Was age 6-17. Now they want most people to start at age 3 and make it uniform across the country. They've asked all schools to adopt this.

    "90% of development happens by age 8 or 9." They want people to be able to perform maths and other things better.

    "Play based learning school" added to the start of the same old period of schooling, it seems. Playing and learning, colors and shapes, alphabets and numbers. Not textbooks.

  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 02,2023
  • People have started to talk over the past few months about a sort of end of a cycle or period

    (Not everyone or even mainstream media, but non-mainstream culture-watching vloggers etc.)

    Two headlines randomly chosen:

    ‘Today’s UK is an unhappy, divided, authoritarian country’

    ''Kickback plot involving San Antonio doctors exposed'

    Canada also the government has not even needed to but has done unconstitutional things to citizens (freezing bank accounts during Trucker Protest most notable). People in the UK consider corruption in government normal. Doctors are not allowed by the State (California) to honestly treat their patients (Covid #PIC). Doctors as a profession if they're doing a lot of drug pushing scams and things it seems pretty extended.

    People have talked about the start of truth coming forward (because for the past decade or so at least there's been a strong trend away from saying true things, where there is so much firepower that can be used against people who say unpopular things (and what isn't unpopular with someone?).

    Teachers in top universities (Jordan Peterson) are being 'reeducated' and having their license threatened because of things they tweeted. Opinions and statements.

    High school teachers and nurses and doctors had to do vaccines or lose their jobs.

    The whole Island Party thing with the recent flight list published.

    People reacting against wokenss, metoo, etc. And more people expressing why.

    US political debates held at 4th grade level of language, I heard, whereas in 1900 it was 11th grade level. No interesting leaders in politics (maybe Desantis? who just today showed a massive lead in the Rs).
     
    Young people in large numbers (but tiny percentage, unnoticeable) buying non-smart phones for mental health.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 04,2023

  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 18,2022

  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 02,2022
  • Russians believe that Ukraine and Ukrainian-ness isn't real or is created artificially and should be wiped out - Jeffrey Mankoff

    Many Ukrainians believe they don't belong at all to this Russian thing, that they have their own culture.
     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 27,2022
  • ‘Instant-noodle marriage’—Chinese youth new invention amid a miserable life - YouTube 
  • Tipflation Taking Over Holiday Shopping - YouTube 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 06,2022
  • First seen use of 'womansplaining'

    Womansplaining exists, whether you believe it or not. : unpopularopinion 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 02,2022
  • Douyin makeup in China
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 01,2022
  • "That disconnect (under Obama) is ultimately what broke trust in government. The fact that we didn't engage for 8 years." - Zeihan, relating Obama's inexperience / disinterest in management of the expansive government apparatus with the election of Trump.
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 17,2022

  • Sporty cars in Togo often cost double the actual cost (import). A similar problem in many smaller countries, or countries with more independent-oriented public workers or culture.
     
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 14,2022

  • Breivik attacks were 2011. 11 years ago.

  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 24,2022
  • Team of archaeologists come across exciting discovery, site indicates home of St. Peter - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 18,2022

  • Alcohol contribution to Japan's revenue in 1980 was 5%. Now it's 1.7%.
     
    Work-from-home has exacerbated the non-drinking.
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 19,2022
  • 85% of Americans age 13-38 want to be social media influences

    ... according to Yahoo Finance.

    "People want short, engaging content. They want to get value immediately, whether it is through entertainment, through education, through something relatable or sharable." According to Cassey Ho, who also posts a lot of videos showing how tight shorts fit her, in a way most women don't show publicly.



  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 18,2022
  • WWE CEO McMahon steps aside during misconduct investigation - YouTube 
  • May, 2022
  • May 31,2022
  • Jordan Peterson now has 5m subs on YT
  • May, 2022
  • May 24,2022
  • Toxic Positivity | Hacker News 
  • May, 2022
  • May 02,2022

  • Will YouTubers become the most hated profession?
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 25,2022
  • Seen on Facebook



     

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 18,2022
  • Over Easter weekend in Sweden, there were reportedly some public Quran burnings

    Is this just the 'get used to it' phase of Muslims living in contemporary Europe?
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 09,2021
  • 3% of black workers in US want to go back to the office, versus 20% of white workers

    ... according to a survey by Slack

  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 15,2021
  • Peter Hitchins: "I see no hope in temporal things."


    ... in which he states he's given up (although I sort of doubt that he won't continue). He says, [70 years as a one-man think tank...] "and i might have well spent the whole time on the beach or in the pub. Nothing i have said has ever made the slightest difference. There is no point of connection between anything that i have said or done and the political system. I cannot make any impact whatsoever."

    ... And talks about the depressing effects of giving a lecture ... 'proving points' and then hearing people make statements contrary to his points.

     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 05,2021
  • Cycling in winter has almost no correlation to snow

    Canadians were called 'wimps' in comparison with Finns in Oulu, because Canadians basically don't bike in winter. Pointed out by Not Just Bikes.

    How much snow falls / the temperature have very little correlation to how many people use bikes, according to some study. Rather, the most important factors are:

    1. Safe bike lane network, so cyclists can get where they want to go, and don't have to share or cross paths with high-speed motor traffic. Oulu has separated bike lanes, and they mark them with images projected from above rather than painting the concrete. Oulu's bike/foot paths are generally designed to be shortcuts, and there are lots of underpasses so pedestrians and cyclists can avoid roads, so in Oulu cyclists can make entire journies without encountering a traffic light or stopping.

    2. Maintenance of snow. Currently, few cities do this well. Oulu maintains its bike paths. 2cm of snowfall and they plow. In Canada, they won't plow unless 5cm fall, and often bike lanes are sometimes where they plow snow into.

     
  • China looks to mega-company chiefs

    Another Chinese property market giant is losing value massively (I think 75% for the year currently). Kaisa.

    China would like if the head of that company would offload some of his assets and make a dent in the companies financial issues. He owns $3b in stock, $200m in planes, $50m yacht, and $200m in houses. Most of his holdings are through a BVI company, so it's not exactly clear.

    Will Chinese billionaires behind these companies decide to give up their fortunes and continue being respected business people, and a part of what happens next in China? or will they say no, keep their wealth, and possibly move?

  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 01,2021
  • SEGA Ikebukero Gigo closed down

    After the building ownership changed hands. SEGA Akihabara also closed down recently.

    "This was definitely the game center I visited the most. I played games, took purikura with my girlfriend at the time. And recently our daughter was born. I would come here to win plushies and things for her. This place was a big part of my life." - Random Japanese young man

    Many of Japan's game centers have reportedly closed down over the past year and a half.
     
  • Controversial anime in Japan called Higehiro

    It's about a young man (27) who one night comes across a highschool girl (didn't hear her age) and she offers him sex to let her stay with him. He refuses but says she can stay with him anyway until she "fixes her spoiled spirit."

    She says she doesn't want to go home. "I can't force her," says Higehiro. "None of you saved her. You just hurt her her more and then threw her away."

    There are people on both sides of this issue, which seems to stem from a law more than any independent logic. In Japan, allowing a minor to stay with you is illegal, considered a kind of kidnapping, even if nothing happens sexually. (What year was this law invented?)

    A question raised goes kind of like, "Fine, you can say he shouldn't have let her stay with him, but what should he have done instead? Just ignore her and not help her? Report her to the police? Maybe her home life is not good, for her to decide she won't return there." This is the same question I hear asked a lot by people criticized for non-PC statements or government policy, kind of like, 'You can't just criticize the current solution unless you say what you want the person to do INSTEAD."

    That Japanese Man Yuta commented that the issue of controversy might not be the age difference, since other animes (he gave an example of a rom-com) have similar age disparities but are not treated as upsetting and the courting of a minor is not illegal, but in Higehiro there is a question of 'transactional relationships' since the girl offers sex for a place to stay, even though Higehiro does not accept. He later admits that he probably offered to let her stay because she was cute, and thinks about her a lot, rather than the girl he liked when the story started. Other anime that feature transactional relationships are also controversial.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 31,2021
  • Vtuber video cancelled in Japan

    After feminist politician group there complained to the police that they 'employ an anime character that depicts a young girl as a sexual object.'

    The Vtuber anime character made a video with the Japanese police about how to ride a bike safely.

    Although the video was family friendly and the anime character not particularly young-looking, the group didn't like that her breasts swayed when she moved and wore a short skirt that 'exaggerated her sexual appeal.'

    The police pulled their links to the video and the video was taken down.

    Two other cases in the past several years had the same sequence of events, with NHK (Kizuna Ai talking about the Nobel Prize) and Japanese Red Cross (Uzaki-chan promoting blood donation), and afterwards more people defended the characters than were offended.

    The creator of the anime in question said she wears what she wants to wear, not because other people tell her to wear it.

    It was pointed out that during 'patriarchy' men shamed women for behavior and types of clothes they wore, suppressing their freedoms, but now 'feminists' are doing the same thing.

    One commenter who didn't like the Vtuber wrote, "The VTuber in question is wearing a miniskirt and a school uniform while exposing her midriff. Regardless of the person's intentions, the men watching would naturally view her in a sexual way. The way she speaks is also slow and clumsy, the same way a little girl speaks. She is exactly what men want: a young, innocent, erotic woman. That is why she is so popular. At the very least, I don't want to show off my midriff to a crowd, and I don't want to talk like an idiot."



     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 26,2021
  • Japan's princess Mako married a commoner and lost royal status

    The princess has moved to the US.

  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 22,2021
  • "New greed is actually insecurity and envy - Josh Brown

    "... very distinct to this moment."

    "Different kinds of greed"

    "Just watching 22 year olds, who don't know anything, become billionaires overnight. That's killing people, from a sentiment standpoint."

    "Middle-aged people who are watching this circus going on outside their window, and I think it's making them almost consider buying weapons."

    "I think that colors a lot of the market commentary, and now everything 'is a bubble.'"

    "People looking at their portfolio, taking huge bets."

    "It's 'Where do I stand?'"

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 17,2021
  • A British politician was stabbed to death

    The killing has been announced as motivated by 'terrorism.'

  • "I don't know why or how everybody got this ... sensitive,"

    Chapelle said at a recent show, commenting on 'cancel culture.'

    I haven't read anything on the morphology of it, either.
  • Joe Rogan had Sanjay Gupta on and pressed him on CNN's 'journalism'

    Because CNN (Gupta is a star 'medical professional' on that channel) reported on Rogan taking 'horse medicine' and painting it pretty negative, and putting a yellow filter on the video they used of Rogan (to make him look worse). Guptra tried to change the subject several times, but Rogan pressed him in a guyish way, and was pretty good at it.

    It made waves and headlines on Republican media and YouTubers.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 13,2021
  • Jerusalema

    A pop phenomenon. There's a song called Jerusalema, a gospel-influenced house song by South African producer  Master KG and performed by singer-songwriter Nomcebo, and people all around the world in groups or singles are making dance videos to it. I think it might be mostly a TikTok thing. Shows African dancers pretty nicely.

  • Great Resignation, a term coined for all the people quitting in the Western world

    Shocks, like that experienced by basically everyone over the past year or two, often cause people to reassess the things they're doing with their lives. Burnout is another thing cited (at places like hospitals).
     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 11,2021
  • Women not really going back to work as much as expected

    Many commenters said things like 'businesses should do more' to try to get women to go to work.

    There was also talk about childcare as a way to make it easier for women to go to work.

    Reportedly, lot of families also want to keep homeschooling their children rather than send them back to school.

    Reports didn't really give an any numbers.


     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 30,2021
  • US schools: Conflict over masks and vaccines

    Lots of disagreement in meetings and signs being put up, and some low-key violence like grabbing phones, as well as 'threats of violence' and letters to government.

    In a letter to the president, the National School Boards Assoc Pres Viola Garcia went somewhat nuclear, straight to 'terrorism:'

    "As these acts of malice, violence, and threats against public school officials have increased, the classification of these heinous actions could be the equivalent to a form of domestic terrorism and hate crimes," she wrote.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 28,2021
  • Northwestern U facing calls to completely abolish Greek life

    ... Two students at a two different frat houses said they were drugged. A spokesperson for the frat house AEPi said, "Our understanding is that the people responsible ARE NOT and HAVE NEVER been members of AEPi."

    A few years ago that frat house was suspended for a year because they gave alcohol to people under age 21, reportedly.

    One student said, "It's really important to believe the victims ..."

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 17,2021
  • College hookup tactics

    ... were studied recently. Talking about college men and women seeking short term relationships.

    For men, the top tactics were dancing with their partner, conversing with her, texting her, and getting drunk. For women, the tactics were dancing with their partner, texting him, flirting with him, and touching him.

    Want to Hookup?: Sex Differences in Short-term Mate Attraction Tactics | SpringerLink 
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 14,2021
  • China's regulations versus celebrities

    In May 2021, fans of an idol threw away 270k cartons of milk because they were buying the QR code on the carton to 'cheer on their favorite trainee' for an idol group ("the milk incident"). The milk waste was taken seriously, partially in light of the CCP's Food Waste Prohibition Law. After this incident, China's National Cyber Info Office (CAC) said idol fandom would become regulated heavily for irrational behavior. "Irrational celebrity worship."

    Weibo has deleted countless posts and closed real and fake accounts for idol fan clubs online. They banned the BTS  fan page (maybe the biggest K boyband currently) for 60 days and then banned 21 other fan groups for a month).

    China used to post a lot of idol fan rankings, and Chinese spend a lot of money to support (sometimes smaller) celebrities. There are paid voting programs, but these have all been banned now.

    Tencent (largest music platform in China) banned accounts from buying the same album or single more than once.

    Chinese people paid $8m last year for K-pop (digital music only, or including merch?), the highest amount from China, reportedly. Total K-pop exports rose 3.6-fold yoy to $26m. This is considered by the CCP to be a trivial use of citizens' interest and money. China says this is a problem, a sick 'fan circle' that has become too prominent, with various fan bases abusing and slandering each other, engaging in 'malicious marketing,' and forcing fans, including young people, to raise funds to support the stars or would-be stars. A Chinese spokesperson put it that all this "seriously hinders the healthy development of the entertainment industry."

    Another related issue is big famous celebrities who China sees as having "excessive incomes" or "false political positions," as well as non-masculine men. Some celebrities (who have passports from other countries) have said they'll give up their foreign passports. (I'm not clear on exactly what the issue is and which passport they said they'd give up.)

    The K-pop style of attractiveness is considered to be imasculine, and China said they'll establish a correct beauty standard for Chinese as well, reportedly. Cosmetics will be among the things focused on. Many reality talent shows were banned for reasons in this vein of central planning. Effeminate boy bands are prohibited from being on idol talent shows.

    Should we expect a somewhat extreme manifestation of the androgenous sexy "forbidden boy" style type we saw in America between the 50's and maybe 80s?

    Another issue is celebrities who have caused controversy by committing immoral acts. Recently, Chinese stars have been in the news for sexual incidents, drugs, and tax fraud. One star published photos or something on his repeated visits to Japan's Yasukuni Shrine and was boycotted (by the Chinese public?).

    I also read passing mention of 'foreplay programs.' What is that?



     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 13,2021
  • China's cultural rules 2021

    Most recently TV talent shows have been banned and TV broadcasters aren't allowed to promote 'effeminate looking men' (K-pop issue). Actors accused of tax evasion and misbehavior have had their work taken off line.

    Minors are allowed to play video games even less than before.

    Tencent and NetEase Games have to remove content that promotes 'incorrect values' like money worship.

    Rideshare company Didi had to be removed from the domenstic app stores for illegally collecting and using personal info.

    The multi-billion dollar private tutoring industry has been banned from making profit or raising capital.

    Some celebrity fan clubs have been banned for promoting 'chaotic culture.'

    One commenter harkened to Xi's 2014 comments on Beijing Forum of Literature Arts where he spoke of 'the good, the true, the beautiful' as the essential values that China needs to cultivate. She said actors and other public figures have greater social obligations to set examples for the moral direction of the society. That celebrities are important not only because the produce excellent works and very entertaining shows but the government has expectations of them as a person.

    Some say that the CCP does not think of these popular apps that just do things like ride hailing or sharing social media posts as real technology, so they're not important to China in terms of being part of the 'tech sector.' Instead, China considers tech to be things like semiconductors, chips, 5G (hard tech).

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 30,2021
  • China bans playing video games more than 3 hours per week

    For children, anyway. They can only play games online between 8 and 9pm Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays and public holidays.

    This is down from the 2019 limit of an hour and a half per day and 3 hours on holidays..

    AP: "Regulators said in Monday’s notice that they would strengthen supervision and increase the frequency of inspections of online game companies to ensure that they follow the regulations closely."

    Notification from Xi through the National Press and Publication Administration
     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 13,2021
  • 10% of 1% of Mayan sites

    ... of all the remains archaeologists could excavate, less than a percent has been thoroughly explored, although lots have been touched by looters over the years (near 100%).

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 29,2021
  • 'Lying flat' movement in China

    ... references to it removed from social media. It's romanized as 'tang ping.'

    It started with a social media post that read in part,

    'I have spent most of the [two years without a steady job] enjoying myself and I find nothing wrong with it. Expectations and stress typically came from the traditional ideas of elder family members. The constant feed of celebrity news about the latest romances and pregnancies to the masses was akin to imposing a way of thinking on them. Since this land never really existed to exalt the tide of human subjectivity that I can create my own to myself. Lying flat is my wise man's movement. Only lying flat can we be human measure anything [sic from not the best source because I couldn't find the original blog post].'

    Over time the term has become a buzzword on the Chinese internet and has become popular among the youth there.

    Chinese state media has published criticisms of the idea as irresponsible.

    Chinese youth reportedly not only have low wages as in all countries but also have to support four parents and however many children they have. Many work 9am to 9pm six days a week. 'So why would they want more children?' wrote someone on social media before their comment was deleted.

    Some say, though, that Chinese should have babies not for themselves but for their country in order to realize the Chinese dream. This is countered by others who raise the point that having a child is a basic human right.

    Analysts have said that it's not that Chinese want to lie flat because they are lazy, but rather because they have lost hope in the future. Especially the young generations.



  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 24,2021
  • India up in arms over film

    'Padmavati,' a Bollywood film based on poem about a probably fictional Hindu queen called ani Padmini, who chose to self immolate rather than submit to a Muslim king.

    No one has seen the film yet, but there are threats and bounties for violence against the director and actors, and lawsuits to ban the film in the Supreme Court.

    Among the things they take issue on (it is the Hindu's taking offense, not Muslims, despite the Muslim king being 'portrayed as barbaric') is the romance between the Hindu queen and Muslim king.


     
  • France now has an 'office of secularism'

    #France #Prejudice #HumanRights
  • France dismissed an imam for sermon

    ... reportedly, it had something to do with something Imam Mmadi Ahamada said about the wives of Mohammad, which the French interior minister said was 'contrary to the values of the republic' ('against gender equality').

    Minister Gerald Darmanin asked the Loire governor's office to dismiss the imam and ensure his residence permit is not renewed.

    He's now had 2 imam's fired it seems.


  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 23,2021
  • China targets education companies to reduce stress in children and cut parenting costs

    'All private tutoring firms now must register as NGOs, they're banned from raising funds from the stock markets and foreign investment ... Those who have violated the regulations shall be cleaned up and rectified,' says the document circulating on state TV.

    EdTech firms have been funded by Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent and Didi.

    Tutoring classes are banned on weekends, public holidays, school vacations, and after 9pm.

    Publicly traded companies in the sector were down between 25 and 60%.

    Clashing policies: China wants international champions, but also wants to crack down on those who'd like to do that. Chinese people don't know what to think about these conflicting policies and it's difficult to get them to talk about it in public or even in private, reportedly.

    The reason has something to do with China wanting more babies, and the barrier to this caused by costs to parents for educating children.

    Reportedly, the Chinese public is happy with this, as they are relieved from an expectation that comes with a large cost.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 20,2021
  • Harvard resignation letter by Cornell West

    ... on Twitter (photo below).

    Top criticism BY (Indy Pirates): Narcissistic academic professionalism has always existed specially from professors towards students. This resignation is only about the lack of status and money, if they paid you more and gave you tenure everything else would not matter.




  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 18,2021
  • Cannes 2021: What a difference 2 years makes

    2019 was all American fodder and exhausted gender and race issues (plus Once Upon a Time, Atlantics by Mati Diop and Young Amed), which was the same as the year before.

    2021 had a lot of the similar pretentiousness and Americans, but not seemingly trashy or as tired. Maybe a new decade after a stupid 00s and stupid and weak 2010s.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 16,2021
  • British Muslim politician's car

    ... reportedly firebombed (she was not in the car) amid a reported 'hate campaign' calling to stop 'an enclave of a new Muslim nation within our nation.' Arooj Shah (elected to lead the Oldham Council in May of this year after service as a councillor since 2012) had previously spoken about facing hate, abuse and racism throughout her political career.

    A 23-year-old man was arrested in connection.

     
  • Cannes, 2021

  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 13,2021
  • Unknown creators made a website to take photos from social media accounts of Muslim Indian women and hold 'fake auctions' over them.

    ... including vocal journalists, activists, artists and researchers.

    The website is titled after a derogatory term for Muslim Indian women.
  • Virginia still top business state

    ... according to CNBC's annual state competitiveness rankings. It's done very well in the past 15 years in this survey.

    Reasons include a strong workforce (40% have at least a bachelors, according to the US Census Bureau, although the state has a relative shortage of workers and relatively few outsiders move there for work - it also has slightly below-average unemployment) and solid education system, reportedly.

    Virginia scored high points in Cost of Doing Business, Infrastructure, Life Health and Inclusion (formerly Quality of Life), and Workforce. Although its score for Education looks low in its rankings, it represents the second highest state after Mass. and CNBC considers it key to winning the survey.

    'Education is the best tool we have to make our Commonwealth a better, more equitable place for everyone,' according to Gov. Northam.

    Virginia like other US states is currently focusing heavily on change in the form of forcing diversity, sustainability and connectivity. It also has a high cost of living and high wages.

    The other top 5 were N.C., Utah, Texas and Tennessee.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 09,2021
  • A school in Scotland stops teaching To Kill a Mockingbird and Of Mice and Men

    Mockingbird is considered to be 'anti-racist,' but because it 'plays into a white savior narrative' decision-makers at the school currently consider it racist.

    Mice and Men for it's racial stereotypes and use of the 'n-word.'

  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 30,2021
  • NY office buildings are offering bars, exercise faciliites to keep tenants

    ... also throwing in several months of free rent on multi-year leases or reduced rent.

Show More

Show Less

  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • Hidden cameras reveal how big banks are upselling you (Marketplace) - YouTube
    Some things they do are illegal, reportedly.
    Bank workers get points for what they sell to customers.
    ‘I shouldn’t have to think more about my target than the client's wellbeing and their intersts.'
    It appears the bank workers are talling customers to just pay part of their credit card interest. There's no way they can invest the rest and make 20% or something close to cover the interest.

    Japan OKs stealth jet exportsーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS - YouTube

    Microsoft launches AI PCs - YouTube
    Have a NPU chip to do AI tasks faster.
    $30 per month to use Copilot already on Win11 Business.
    Attempt to get more businesses to pay for Copilot on the expectation of efficiency. So far people say there are problems with it.
    Besides Nvidia, no one has really made any money off AI. Could be a move to non-Nvidia companies making money off AI. The software opportunity after the hardware opportunity (everyone will have the hardware, and it'll be a question Who has the best app and stickiest services).
    Microsoft, however, owns part of OpenAI.
    Microsoft is a company that makes money.
    Intel will provide the CPUs for these devices.
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 15,2024
  • Bitcoin. Anonymous founder. Founder disappear ed. The Satoshi coins disappeared. Lack of initial coin offering. Lack of corporate sponsor. Traded 15 months with no commercial value. The simplicity of the protocol. Outcome of the blocksize wars. All these equate to 'common property.' It's fair. A fair launch, a fair distribution.
    If Saylor's company has paid $4b for their bitcoin. If he'd got it free or for 5c, would it still be considered ‘fair’? It has seasoned over time.
    In 2014 the IRS designated it as property and gave it property tax treatment.
    It was never able to be hacked.
    It was copied, but thousands of times.
    Institutionally, 2020 Microstrategy first multi-million purchase from a company. Tesla bought. Square bought.

    Beware of counterfeit camcorders on eBay! - YouTube
    Tape cassette walkmans are on Marketplace for $100 or $200. Discmans pretty close, too. Point and shoot cameras from the past 10 years a couple hundred dollars.
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 11,2024
  • Compact Disks make Comeback: Memory could Exceed Petabytes - YouTube
    Not yet. It's from research in China. Writing on hundreds of layers on a disk. Lasers can focus and write at specific depths of the disk. Another laser will target the writes and cause them to emit light.
    They didn't write about how slow writing is, nor how much energy it takes, nor where you get the laser to write like this.
    #China #Technology

    Story coins. jj
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 05,2024
  • Was Italy's $1 Home Scheme Worth It? | True Cost | Insider News - YouTube
    Neighbors, refortifying multi-story homes, many of the young people left and leaving for the city to find work etc. $2k to $8k fees and lawyers.
    They've sold almost all the houses though. Sicily towns. 10k people there but empty houses meant it could house 40k, in Sambuca. New people speak new languages etc.

    Coca-Cola is adding its first permanent flavor in three years | CNN Business
    'Spiced was selected because it’s “all about being on category trend and responsive to our consumer preferences,” who are craving bolder and punchier flavors, Sue Lynne Cha, Coke’s vice president of marketing for North America, told CNN.
    'Coke’s research found that an “increase in consumer willingness to try a spiced beverage” and that raspberry was selected more than 5 million times on its Freestyle drink machines in 2022, which the company “often uses for inspiration” for new flavors, she said.
    ‘“Consumers are looking for more bold flavors and more complex flavor profiles. That’s a trend we started to see in food, but also in beverage and we though that was a unique space for us to play in,” she said, adding that there’s been of a “desire of discovery” with people wanting to try something new.’
    I had this idea 2 or 3 years ago and didn't know any big bottling CEOs.

    Inside The Mysterious Bitcoin City Billionaires Are Pouring Money Into | Insider News - YouTube
    A city that runs like a business in (Garifuna) Roatan Island, Honduras, a place for tourists and divers, there is the town of Prospera. Special economic zone to attract foreign investment.
    Can you really build a city without a government?
    The Honduran committee in charge collects taxes, runs security, and approves any new laws there. Only one person is public, the others are suspected to be some American Republicans. There are no normal public services there. There is one private elementary school.
    $1300 annual fee for foreigners ($260 for locals). Most are e-residents. 120 businesses have registered there. 2 weeks to get paperwork done, they say. You can pay everything, even taxes, in bitcoin.
    Could become a tax haven like Caymans.
    Honduras has been doing special economic zones since 2013 to attract otherwise-wary foreigners. In 2022 a new leftist leader repealed the law that allowed to creation of these zones but existing ones couldn't be shut down over night, because they're protected by international treaty for 50 years, and Propsera already sued Honduras for $11b in 2022 (ongoing).
    Has its own online court to settle disputes. Are residents above the law of the land?
    There is a law that says Honduras has the right to take neighboring citizens' land to expand the special economic zone. Prospera says their own laws wouldn't allow that. But maybe in 20 years, say critics.


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 01,2024

  • Ayahuasca boom in Brazil - Remedy or risk? | DW Documentary - YouTube
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024
  • I ditched Spotify because of THIS - YouTube

    This Guy is Mass Producing Factories to Build Houses | Cuby - YouTube
    Each factory can produce roughly a house per day.
    70% of the cost per square foot of house is the labor plus sub contractor, in the US, right now. There's not enough skilled labor. 30% is materials.
    Manufacturing conveyor style. 50% the cost of standard construction. Reduce the labor force more than 10x.
    'People need to buy a house as easy as to buy a car.'
    With some predictable quality.
    Most the production (factories) to where you want to build the houses.
    He wrote a book on how to govern engineers in a business. He is a physics analyst. If he can find the physics analysis, he can predict how the system will behave itself.
    They train workers before they arrive at the factory by creating a version of the factory in Unreal Engine. He plays the game version, and then when he arrives he already knows.
    They have an Uber-style app for the workers. When they arrive they push a button on the app and (based on his skills) he is assigned a task. When he's finished he pushes another button.
    They are preparing to use more robotics. They will give these same digital tasks (from the app) to robotics.
    Use already-existing technology, so it will be familiar to any participant of the market.
    #Belarus
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05,2024
  • Man attacked for Canada Goose jacket in Columbia Heights | NBC4 Washington - YouTube
    These cost like over $1000 US now, because they went viral a couple years ago.

  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • Heart stimulants saw biggest 2023 Japan sales rise on tourist demand

    Introducing SPRING REVERBERATION 636 - YouTube
    Are analog instruments gonna be mass produced again? Lots of new synth offerings and other instrument offerings as well.

    Gold beans for like $60 (each bead?) You can buy one bead a day and collect them in a ‘floating bottle’ and when you have enough, you can change it to a piece of jewelry.
    ‘Saving consumption’.
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • Uggs are trending.

    IT'S HAPPENING! ALL New GENIUS Canoo Pickup! - YouTube

  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08,2024
  • One of The Best Ways to Scan 35mm Film - VALOI easy35 - YouTube

  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023
  • To level up my small business, I joined TikTok Shop. - YouTube
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • These Bricks Can Absorb Traffic Noise - Thesis Presentation on Helmholtz Resonators - YouTube
    20-300hz, because they're looking at low pitch from traffic.
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqBWhQ09qNM

    Hostile architecture

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_OtUBnxjc8

    But it's ‘for a retro look'?

  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • “Smart” = unfixable

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFD9V8Hh7Yg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vR2j-r3pmng

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 25,2023
  • Newspapers in Japan now have seeds in them.

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04,2023
  • HP sued over scanner that requires ink; their defense is RIDICULOUS! - YouTube 

    The CEO of HP would be an interesting interview. A person who makes these kinds of decisions.





  • A meetup on SM.


    Return of folk music?

    This song shot to popularity so fast.

    It's be exhilarating to watch when it comes. Or to be a part of?

    Also, community.

    First time in years I think I've heard a song about SOMETHING. It's not deep, but at least it's about something at all.

    Culture battle? (against government? For control of government?)

    Her fans don't listen. They just watch her.

  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21,2023
  • Dakou - Scapped tapes and CDs sold to China as reusable plastic (80s?)
  • May, 2023
  • May 15,2023
  • Melbourne Instruments NINA: Not just a pretty face! - YouTube 
  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 25,2023

  • City Radio, from Italy. (But without being actively connected to phone it doesn't work, so it's actually just a speaker with hotkeys).

    Internet radio. Bluetooth. Push buttons for their city's radio station. Four buttons on top (power, memory, left, right), plus a knob on the side for volume (no tuning?). Bluetooth(insecure). Non-replaceable (for people without a screwdriver) battery, charged with USB.

    Download an app(secure?) on phone. Connect phone via bluetooth(insecure). You program on your phone which buttons on the radio tune to what stations.

    the CityRadio - Hear the world - YouTube 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 15,2022



  • EVs are not reliable currently, due to them being a new manufacture.
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 10,2022
  • LVMH owns the most high fashion brands

    It revenues $55b per year. Karans, the second biggest, makes a quarter of that. But Kering's strategy is to own top tier brands. Gucci is the 'most popular' among genZ and TikTok. YSL and Balenciaga are also SM favorites.



    Karen's:

    Gucci's 'blitzkreig strategy of putting their brand on things and charging thousands for everyday items of a large variety of sorts, including baby clothes and skateboards. They sell to cheaper wholesalers department stores and and outlets where people can buy their products for less (they cross out the $1599 and put $800), in addition to their almost 500 shops where the staff sometimes wear white gloves. They sell the items that haven't changed for decades to some customers and other products to people who want the brand but also want something trendy they can wear. They capitalize on trends. New products account for 30% of their business. They do lots of licensing.

    55% of their customers are 35 or younger. Gucci invests like 12% of it's budget or something in advertising.



    YSL is a mid-price range, conservative company that sells their black bags with big YSL logos and other products, and doesn't change their products much.

    Another brand is Hermes, who never advertises, never sold online, or even displayed publicly, and  and they're 'more lucrative and successful' than Gucci. They sell to their list of the highest spending customers. It takes no pre-orders or waiting lists, and doesn't expand inventory or scale production. Not everyone can buy their products. Their products appreciate value. They have no returns. They manufacture products by hand in France, where they have 45 factories (85% of products). Each bag is made by a single craftsman (after extensive training) in France. A craftsman makes 2-4 bags per week. They're independent. They gross close to what Gucci does. They have 306 stores. 75 in Europe (13 in France), 45 in the Americas (29 in the US), 95 in Asia (29 in Japan), and 6 in Oceania. Their star product is their handbags, which sell for $10,000s to $100,000s. You get to buy their bags by being a regular in their stores and buying their shoes and other products, and after they spend a lot they're offered a chance to buy a bag. The customer is one day notified and taken to a room in the back. Some people buy the 1-3 bags they're shown even if they don't really want them to demonstrate loyalty and stay on the list. Their bags are constantly resold and appreciate 15% per year.
  • Some fashion fans say high fashion brands are collabing with much cheaper brands

    ... and they don't know why.

    Balenciaga, Gucci, Prada have all collabed with Adidas. Miu Miu with New Balance. Givenchy with Disney. GAP with Jeezy and Balenziaga.

    Jersey $1750 (Adidas/Gucci) (Actually the figure is for pounds but I don't have that key)
    Shorts $1250
    Bag $3100
    Sneakers $650

    Gucci shorts are $600. Half.
  • 2 months into the Swatch/Omega MoonSwatch

    Huge lineups outside shops. Limit of purchase to 2, then to just 1.

    The watch costs $300.

    The product launch has been compared with an Apple product release.

    Was it all just due to herd mentality? Was it because they could finally afford an Omega? Was it their first Omega? Did it happen through word of mouth or social media advertising or for resale on the grey market? There are thousands listed on eBay now for $350 to $1000. One was sold for $8000, it seems. Swatch only sells their watches at select stores, it's doesn't seem to want to sell online.

    Omega fans, some asked to have their names taken off list after this collab. It's not really exclusive now.

    Omega is owned by Swatch, and some have said Omega had to comply although they weren't for it. Does the move do justice to the Omega brand? Omega is known for quality movements, and the new watch is a return to quartz. It's plastic (bioceramic), not metal. It's been said to have a cheap, light feel. The dye runs, reportedly.

    People are wearing it as a fun, affordable accessory. It's high fashion. It's trendy. They're exclusive again because their production is limited and prices are bidded up.

    There's no knowing where the future of a launch like this goes. The thing can easily be replicated.


     
  • Shein, growing fashion brand

    Shein launches 3,000 to 4,000 new (fast fashion) female apparel products every day, reportedly. $2 to $30 per item.

    Their product line is updated much faster than any other fashion brand (Zara, ASOS, H&M).

    Shien is valued at $100b, more than H&M and Zara combined. However, H&M did $24b and Zara $19b last year, and Shein did $10.

    They're private and don't give interviews. The CEO has only been seen a couple times.

    They say they were founded in 2012, but others say in 2008 with Dianwei (knock offs and stuff, reportedly). So they developed along with mass adoption of smart phones (helps with product discovery). Also collected user info, algos, and the continuing development of Chinese manufacturing and distribution, as well as China-friendly global community.
    Shein within China doesn't have the advantage it has over other world brands in the global market, because China is a more saturated market. It can't compete for speed and price like it does against the US.

    Shein also made timely payments to suppliers (a rarity in China, reportedly) made it able to get smaller production orders. Small order, quick response. 100 to 500 items as the first batch (3 to 5 days), versus Zara's 100k items. No middle man or import tariffs because they're shipped straight from China to customers (not to retail chains).

    Shein pays quite a bit for marketing. It pays influencers and celebs. They do a thing called a 'haul,' in which a tik-toker or instagramer buys/receives a big box, like $500 or $2000 worth, and they try it all on and stuff. This goes viral and creates its own marketing campaign. It's an algo that works through influencers and young women.

    Shein was the #1 downloaded shopping app in 2021.

    Shein's growth has recently slowed with the China city lockdowns.

    Several independent fashion designers have gone on social media alleging Shein has knocked off their design to the tee. Exactly the same, and they sell the things for way less. Doc Marten's and Levi Strauss have sued them. I think to do this you have to be registered in China.

    Shein contracts a lot of work to small factories and there are workers who are not in the social welfare system there, whatever the relevance of that is. This is the key to cheap, fast products like this. It's simply finding ways to pay workers less than other places.

    An issue lots of people talk about with these fast fashion mass sales brands is waste. 100m tonnes of clothing are dumped in landfills every year now. These products are made to be used once or several times, and they are not good for a second-hand market (for example, a lot of first world used clothing is sent to Africa, and it still is, but they say the fast fashion stuff is not useable, it's basically garbage shipped to them).

    Producing textiles is energy intensive, and is often done where there are less regulations which consider the environment. It's been interesting as an example of how the young generation, which has been perceived as more environmentally conscious and critical of past generations waste, doesn't really care because they seem to prefer the less expensive product regardless, because it's what they can more easily afford.

     
  • May, 2022
  • May 16,2022

  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 13,2021
  • 3d printed gun inventor dies of heart attack at age 28, days after his house was raided by police

    He invented and publicized a totally 3d printed gun (unlike previous/other ones that required purchase of a bolt or magazine to be bought the old fashioned way). Every part of it except the barrel, which could be made at home as well. His gun was called FGC-9 ('fuck gun control 9mm').

    He was raided after financial companies reported his unusual purchased to law enforcement, reportedly.

    Many raised questions about his death, having occurred so soon after a raid by a force related to those who probably investigated and confirmed the normalness of his death (they reported he had a heart defect), combined with his age.

    However, 1 in 5 heart attacks are now for people under age 40. That means 0.3% of people between 20 and 40 have heart attacks. However, the average age for a first heart attack is 65 for men and 72 for women.

    Note, though, that having a heart attack is not the same as dying from a heart attack, I don't think, anyway. I didn't see stats for dying of heart attack under age 30.
     
    Quotes said by the guy, JStark, on YouTube: "There are certain circumstances in our life that are unfortunate, and which make living kind of painful, and sometimes I do not have anything to look forward to. But with me, I have nothing to lose. And to accept the risk to be able to die at any time basically. Live free or die. These are not empty words.  ... We do not want harm for anyone. We want everyone to live peacefully amongst each other. And we want people to have the freedom of speech and the right to bear arms. If that's too politically extreme for you, fuck yourself."
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 27,2021
  • New Suzuki Jimny sells out in seconds

    ... in Mexico. Suzuki doesn't make cars to sell in the US.

    It's also selling out in Europe and anywhere it's available.

    It's a very small, low-powered, very uncushy (over bumps) jeep-like SUV that's the 'new thing.' It costs $20k. It has nothing extra, but does have many of the things you want in a vehicle (AC, cruise control, charge port in rear interior for a tire pump). A comparable vehicle is the Jeep Wrangler which costs just under $30k.

    They made 1000 to see if people wanted them in Mexico, and they sold out in under a minute online. They offered another 1000 and same thing.


Show More

Show Less

  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22,2024
  • Alibaba After Jack Ma & China's Economy in 2024 - YouTube
    Live player out?
    Chilling for any large successful business owners. Maybe they'll only have little ones that are innovative.
    You can't mess with any national champion style company or party adjacent. Can't compete with more connected. In US you're allowed to compete with big giant companies.


  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22,2024

  • Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has died, Russian media report | BBC News | BBC News - YouTube
    #Russia
    How one treats their prisoners is a mark of their nobleness and their size as a person. If one presumes to cage a person they are responsible for anything that happens to them while they have taken away their autonomous power of self-protection.
    Greed is a sign of poverty.
    A great person takes care of everyone within their tent. Magnanimity.

    Julian Assange: Wikileaks founder in last-ditch bid to avoid US extradition | BBC News - YouTube
    #Assange
    If his lawyers can't convince the judge, they can go to the European Court of Human rights to try to stop the plane from taking off.
    Julian Assange’s brother makes heartbreaking plea to bring him home | ABC News - YouTube
    A historical figure. His contribution to the West. To society. Ending the War in Iraq, possible because of one of the diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks. ‘I’m immensely proud of the work he's done.'
    The Aus parliament and PM asked for Assange, and their ‘closest partner’ ostensibly, hasn't done so. The Aus ‘sense of a fair go’ that ‘Julian hasn’t gotten.'
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024
  • Tucker got a long interiew with Putin, now quite a bit talked about. Why he was so determined was that he wanted to interview Putin for years, but was ‘prevented’ by the agents of the 3letters of his government, and they admitted doing it, spying illegally on his phone and leaking it to Russia, scaring them away from granting an interview. He said that enraged him and fortified him in wanting to do it.
    LIVE: Tucker Carlson on US & Russia Relationship | World Government Summit, Dubai | Ukraine | IN18L - YouTube


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31,2024
  • Just from screens on YouTube, Zuckerburg (grilled and agressed against in Congress today) looked older and you might say better looking, more attrative. Is it the age? Does it have to do with that he's been doing martial arts for like a year now? He also this year let Facebook go back to impressing shareholders and not spending on his VR idea. He recently published an opensource competitor to GPT, which is useable for code it seems.
    #Zukerburg
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 26,2024
  • Tucker Carlson draws thousands in Calgary, speaks with Alberta Premier - YouTube
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22,2024
  • Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman: Financial independence gives me the wherewithal to speak freely - YouTube
    #Ackman How activists work, live on TV.

    Milei rompe los esquemas en Davos con una magistral oda al capitalismo - YouTube
    #Milei
    Milei took aim at Western 'collectivism'.
    'El colectivismo al inhibir estors procesos de descubrimiento y al dificultar la apropiacion do lo descubierto ha ata al emprendador de las manos y imposibilita producir mejores bienes y ofrecer mejores servicios a un mejor precio.'
    'Para entender que venimos a defender es imporante definir de aca hablamos nosotros cuando hablamos de libertarismo.' ... 'principio de no agresion, en defensa del derecho a la vida, a la libertad y a la propiedad, cuyas institutciones fundamentales son la propiedad privada, los mercados libres de intervencion Estatal, la libre competencia, la division del trabajo y la cooperacion social, donde solo se puede ser exitoso sirviendo al projimo con bienes de mejor calidad a un mejor precio.'
    'Nunca debe olvidarse que el socialismo es siempre y en todo lugar un fenomeno empobrecedor que fracaso en todos los paises que intento.'
    'Un mercado es un mecanismo de cooperacion social donde se intercambian voluntariamente derechos de propiedad.' ... 'la unica contexto en el que puede haber un fallo de Mercado es si hay coaccion, y el unico con la capacidad de coaccionar de manera generalizada es el estado que tiene el monopolio de la violencia.' 'ejempol regular monopolios destriorle las ganancias y destrozar los rendimientos crecientes automaticamente destruiria el crecimiento economico.'
    'El unico que devino esta agenda del feminismo radical es en mayor intervencion del Estado para entorpecer el proceso economico, darle trabajo a burocratas que no le aportaron nada a la sociedad ...'
    '... donde el Estado es el dueno de los medios de produccion.'
    He grouped all 'colectivistas' like nationalistas, globalistas, social democrats, keynsians, progresistas, populistas as 'en el fondo no hay diferencias sustantivas. Todos sostienen que el estado debe dirigir todos los aspectos de la vida de los individuos.
    'No se dejen amedtrentar ni por la casta politica ni por los parasitos que viven del Estado. No se entreguen a una clase politica que lo unico que quiere es perpeturarse en el poder y mantener sus privelegios. Ustedes son benefactores sociales. Ustedes son heroes. Ustedes son los creadores del periodo de prosperidad mas extraordinario que jamas hayamos vivido. Que nadie les diga que su ambicion es inmoral, si ustedes ganan dinero es porque ofrecen un producto mejor a un mojor precio, contribuyendo de esa manera al bienestar general. No cedan al avance el estado. El estado no es la solucion, el estado es el problema mismo. Ustedes son los verdadores protagonistas de esta historia, y sepan que apartir de hoy cuentan con Argentia como un aliado incondicional. ...Viva la libertad carajo!'

    Higgins said he doesn't consider himself a politician, and refers to other Congresspeople as ‘them’. ‘I’m a servant to the people.'
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19,2023
  • CASA REAL: La princesa LEONOR DE BORBÓN aprende a combatir en la nieve | EL PAÍS - YouTube
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 12,2023
  • Ackman getting props for calling the top of rates.

    Musk did a 1.5 hour interview with Andrew CNBC at a NYT summit. A lot of it was dwelling on criticism (over X twitter). He said he doesn't care if people hate him, told blackmailing “” ad spenders to fuck off, and they will cause X to fail. A lot of the conversation was about ‘hate’ for Musk, ‘trust/not’ of Musk. He should learn to reframe this, since this is not a pleasant occurance, that people will even think of hate/not in the Musk conversation. He should just say his resume is public and long, and that he doesn't know how many times people need him to say the same thing but state it once more for them.

    NYC Comptroller urges Tesla board to hold Elon Musk accountable - YouTube
    #Musk

    Sandy Munro: Death Threats, Tesla & Short Sellers - YouTube
    #Musk

    ‘All State action causes more harm than what it is supposed to correctl’ - #Milei
    Javier Milei: Feminist Ideology Is Destroying Argentina - YouTube
    ‘it is a violent action that harms the right to private property and in the end, limits our freedom.’
    'We believe that liberalism entails the unrestricted respect for the lives of others, rooted in a principle of non-aggression, and the defense of life, liberty, and property.

    Milei is known for his flamboyant personality, distinctive personal style, and strong media presence. He has been described politically as a far-right populist, right-wing libertarian, and ultraconservative. Economically a neoliberal or ultraliberal and supporter of laissez-faire capitalism, he aligns specifically with minarchist and anarcho-capitalist principles. He has proposed a comprehensive overhaul of the country's fiscal and structural policies. Milei supports freedom of choice on drug policy, guns, prostitution, same-sex marriage, sexual preference, and gender identity, while opposing abortion and euthanasia. In foreign policy, he advocates for closer relations with the United States, supporting Ukraine in response to Russia's invasion, and distancing Argentina from geopolitical entanglement with China.

    A social conservative, Milei opposes abortion and euthanasia,[131][132] is indifferent to same-sex marriage, and supports privatization in education and healthcare. He opposes mandatory vaccination, and supports drug legalization and the legalization of prostitution.[133][134] As a supporter of the right to keep and bear arms, Milei advocates deregulation of firearm ownership and proposes immigration restrictions for criminals.[1][135] In foreign policy, Milei criticizes the IMF,[136] opposes trade unions,[137] aligns with anti-socialist figures like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro,[138][139] and prioritizes alliances with the United States and Israel.[140][141] He is cautious about relations with China,[142] supports Ukraine against Russia,[143] and advocates dialogue about the Falklands War.[48]
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RZyivuT2ek

    Walmart went with Lilo and Missy Eliot.

    Billie Eilish in headlines for ‘bravely’ fighing body shaming by taking her shirt of and being in just a bra. Of course, the headlines were mocked. Is this a PC-advised way to transition (with as much of the fanbase as possible) to being more sexy?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTbyU6hM-h4

  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAze0l2MDGI

    #SBF

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JO4eNTWxt4A

    Proposals from 3 bidders, reportedly.

    SBF took the stand, without the jury present, by his own choice. (Some time ago he'd also commented that he regretted filing bankrupcy that he knew he had the right to not do so but he'd be pressured to by his advisors or whoever, and that he only had his own self to blame.)

    SBF had been started to be painted by other people. I guess this can happen when you stay silent (which happens during legal proceedings, or when you don't want to be baited by unworthy intentions to engage with people of higher value). He's been painted as a fake genius who put on his famous appearance to look like a tech savant, etc. But now it seems he's showing who he is and speaking for himself, and I haven't heard any real missteps. He's blamed himself for errors, but hasn't of course taken any gratuitous contrition. To me he comes off as a scientist or engineer, dealing with things rationally, but it appears he has no malevolent or particularly avaricious intentions. Now people say he'll get destroyed by cross examination. They point out he hasn't been forthcoming on some of the things he was asked about, saying he didn't recall with confidence.

    Whatever happens in the trial now, on the other side of it SBF still is a person worth listening to and believing and seeing what he does. He retains his integrity, and maybe gets a bit more for chosing to speak for himself and by speaking show normal intentions, rather than playing law and hunkering down.

    #SBF

    SBF was convicted on all counts. People are saying the prosecution really went after him, but some have already raised the counter that the prosecution handed out plea deals and things left and right, and might have really only been going after SBF. Also, there might be something worth noting about SBF being a non legal(read:insincere and advantage-seeking) type of defendant. He's spoken openly and sincerely, not at all guardedly, to it seems everyone, including vloggers and the court. This is the kind of defendant its pretty easy for a prosecution to tear up.

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17,2023
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTcXsBkQ11M

    SBF used a company that links up investors with celebs, like K5, “a one-stop shop for relationships.” SBF paid hundreds of millions to K5 and expressed the possibility of investing up to $1b.

    “He is probably the most connected person I've ever met. At his dinner at his house were Hilary Clinton, Doug Enhof, Katie Perry, Orlando Bloom, Kate Hudson, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jeff Bezos, Ted Sorandos, Kendal, and Cory Gamble.”

    He paid or was to pay $30m to Steph Curry, $50 for Tom Brady and Gizelle Bundchen, and $10m for Larry David to appear in his Superbowl commercial.

    Alameda had a $65b line of credit with FTX.

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 18,2023
  • Lalisa collabing with French burlesque club Crazy Horse. and will be performing 5 exclusive shows from 28 to 30 September.

    #Lalisa

    She just turned down a $40m contract renewal for BlackPink.

  • May, 2023
  • May 03,2023
  • Powell got pranked by Russian pranksters, reportedly, saying they were Zelenski

    They talked for 15 minutes and asked him about his expectations for rates. Two more 25point hikes then hold, probably.
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 27,2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 11,2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 01,2023

  • "Woody Harrelson just made my list of most respected comedians. Those who have the stones to tell it like it is...much respect." - some YouTuber I think.

     
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 20,2023
  • Gravitas: Jack Ma spotted in Australia | How Xi Jinping destroyed Jack Ma - YouTube 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 24,2022

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 22,2022

  • Interesting.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 13,2022

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 03,2022

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 31,2022

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 30,2022

  • He was a guest on Fridman the other day, too, and got into an emotional exchange.

     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 26,2022

  •  
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 25,2022
  • Adidas latest to drop Kanye

    Kanye "Ye" is now worth $400m on paper, according to Forbes. Used to be like 1.3b.

    Racism as bad business. Jewish, black. Posting (basically doxing) pictures of CEOs on his 60m-follower Insta.

    Josh Brown thinks next they'll ask Why his music is still on Spotify? What is the responsibility of Apple, Spotify, YouTube? A few days later Brown said that had happened, and his next prediction was that the backlash against taking down his music would be harsher than leaving it, because, like other artists in the past who've received backlash for their (racist or otherwise) statements (Mel Gibson, I forget the others), people don't want their artistic works removed. They want to enjoy them.

    #Kanye 
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 15,2022
  • People not liking Elon

    So he agreed to buy Twitter and now, after weeks of 'show me how many bots,' he's not going to buy it. Twitter is taking him to Delaware court to make him buy / pay a fine (capped at $1b someone said), and their case is strong.

    However, the Delaware Chancery Courts people have reportedly said they are concerned that even if they rule, Elon might just say nope not paying, and that reflects bad on them as an authority. Also, it's an extreme measure to make someone buy something they don't want to buy, although they have forced people to do so, but for like $500m not for like $20b.

    What people were talking bad about was that people can get so powerful and rich, no one wants to go after them. They're just like nope I can't get involved with that guy. That it's sort of 'flouting the institutions' of the country.

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 18,2022

  • Is the UK still a country? Can we still consider it to be one?
     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 18,2022
  • Musk tweeted "Love me tender" with music notes

    People think he'll make a tender offer. He has to show he has sufficient funds, though. There are no competing offers, so analysts say if he has the money he'll own Twitter.

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 04,2022
  • Musk bought like 10% of Twitter stock

    Stock rose 25%. It went down a bit in the following days, but is still up significantly.

    A few days earlier he engaged with the public on his Twitter, asking about if Twitter respects democracy and stuff and what should be done, and people wondered if he might buy a majority in Twitter for a few billion.

    A few days after buying his 10% in stoc, he offered to buy all of Twitter for like $40b or something. It wasn't accepted. News is discussing it.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 21,2022
  • Sometimes people are making anti-suicide statements

    John McAfee did this a while ago, I guess when he first started to become concerned he would be 'suicided,' as people are calling it (coining a verb the way we coined 'disappeared' for what happens frequently in China and like Russia).

    He had made a video statement, where he said he was not suicidal and he wouldn't be, and expressed his reasons why not, and said if he was ever reported to have committed suicide, it would be false.

    But this year I've seen another person, a YouTuber, make a similar statement. And whenever YouTubers blog on controversial issues, many of the comments ask or mention this possibility for them.

  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 14,2022
  • Valieva at Beijing Winter Olympics lands a historic quadruple jump

    ... first time a woman does it. Some in the past have even said that due to women's bodies they couldn't. She's 15, and was expected to win the Gold, but tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs, or something like that.


  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 04,2022
  • Mexican president Andres Obrador had sent a letter to Trump before Trump's term was over, saying he should pardon Assange

    Obrador got no response.

    Now, it is reported Obrador has made statements saying something like he would offer Assange asylum in Mexico.

    This is all according to things Obrador said publicly.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 27,2021
  • San Jose police officer quits to speak out against vaccine mandate

    "When we received a email saying that you're gonna have a vaccine by a certain date or face discipline up to and including termination, I took it as a threat. Because I don't plan to be vaccinated. And I decided to turn in my badge so I could speak up cause others can't for fear of losing their job," David Gutierrez told Fox News.

    In Gutierrez's case, he didn't want to put the thing in his body for religious reasons.

     
  • Report shows CIA had made plans that included options to kill Assange in the embassy in London


    In 2017 the CIA under Pompeo (although the report showed the plans predated Pompeo although he pushed it forward) and the Trump Admin did some work making possible plans to kidnap and possibly kill Assange.

    The following statement can be attributed to Freedom of the Press Foundation (FPF) executive director Trevor Timm:

    “The CIA is a disgrace. The fact that it contemplated and engaged in so many illegal acts against WikiLeaks, its associates, and even other award-winning journalists is an outright scandal that should be investigated by Congress and the Justice Department. The Biden Administration must drop its charges against Assange immediately. The case already threatens the rights of countless reporters. These new revelations, which involve a shocking disregard of the law, are truly beyond the pale.”

    Trump, as everyone knows, called Assange a hero when he was running for pres, and people looked for him to pardon Assange before he left the White House, but he didn't, although he pardoned other people.

    The US has been trying to have Assange extradited from England to the US for trial, and now people are asking if a nation can legally extradite someone if they had made plans to possibly kill them. Experts say the UK could continue without paying attention to this all, because it's considering on very narrow grands the legitimacy of the US's appeal merits.

    According to YahooNews, the some Obama officials looking at reclassifying Assange and related journalists Glen Greenwald and Laura Poitras (who were working on the Snowden documents at the time), as 'information brokers,' which would allow the government to get around a lot of legal guidelines they're expected to follow which prevented them from mounting various types of offensives against the journalists.

    A random commenter on this story wrote, "CIA wanted to assassinate a journalist? They're no better than the Saudi's with Jamal Khashoggi if that's the case. DISGUSTING!"

    Michael Isikoff, Chief Investigative Correspondent at YahooNews

    #YahooNews #Assange #US #FPF
     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 23,2021
  • In 2021 people's impression of Assange

    Top YouTube questions:


    #Assange 
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 12,2021
  • Assange case: Bit of progress for US gov side

    Many are heartbroken.

    Last January a London court (Judge Baraitser) ruled he couldn't be extradited to the US over concerns of 'risk of suicide' (and some mental health concerns) while not opposing the US gov on the more central political issue.

    In the US's appeal, now Britain's High Court has granted permission to the US to expand their grounds for appealing the decision to not send Assange to the US.

    Next trail date is Oct 29.


    APnews: US granted more grounds to appeal on Assange extradition  
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 02,2021
  • British MPs and protesters go to Belmarsh prison demanding Assange be allowed access to them

  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 30,2021
  • Assange case witness says he lied to US officials to get immunity

    Many have commented that the mainstream media have been quiet about this revelation.

    Assange has been in a UK prison since April 2019 since Equador gave him up (removed their protection of him in their embassy in London). Extradition to the US for trial was recently denied, but not on the merits on the case, but rather on humanitarian grounds.

    The Icelander, who back in the early Wikileaks days had been a volunteer, had been convicted of forgery, fraud and some 'sex crimes,' and is, according to Assange's legal representatives, a dubious source.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 25,2021
  • John McAfee died in a Spanish Prison, June 23, 2021

    Age 75, after a life full of stories and adventure, and being very vocal about his beliefs.

    He was found hanged in a Spanish prison. He had been arrested 9 months earlier trying to board a plane from Barcelona to Istanbul on a British passport--he was arrested on a US warrant for tax evasion.

    In 2019, he said he hadn't payed taxes for 8 years for ideological reasons.

    His lawyer said McAfee had said that, given his age, if sentenced for tax evasion, he could spend the rest of his life in jail. (Up to 10 for tax evasion, up to 20 for securities fraud.)

    Some think his death was not by suicide. In 2019 he tweeted he was getting subtle messages from the government they were going to kill himself [sic] and that if he suicided himself, he didn't, and got a tattoo that says '$WHACKD.' In Oct 2020 about a month after his arrest he tweeted, 'I am content in here. I have friends. The food is good. All is well. Know that if I hang myself, a la Epstein, it will be no fault of mine.'

    Other people have also referenced Epstein when talking about McAfee's death.

    Camera footage from inside the prison and an autopsy report have not been made available at this point.

    Some people think he might have set up a 'dead man's switch' to leak information about elites after his death, particularly considering his tech-savvyness.




    Recent tweet by his wife Janet:

     

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  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 12,2021
  • SHTF pantry

    For one person for 1 year, which can last in storage for 5-25 years. It may cost $1000-$1500.

    Calories. You need 2200 per day on average. 800,000 per year (an average man needs more, about 1m calories, if he's working every day). Looking at this number by the month, one person can eat:

    66 lbs of grain
    20 lbs of beans
    .83 quarts of oil
    10 lbs of sweetener
    less than a full salt container
    4 lbs of milk

    Now by year:

    800 pounds of grain examples (this example goes over 800): 300 of white rice, 20 of corn, 400 wheat (you need wheat grinder), 50 oats, 15 barley, 150 pasta.

    240 pounds of beans: 120 pinto, 30 red kidney, 100 black beans, 15 split peas

    10 quarts of oil (oil needs to be rotated as it does go rancid): a bottle of olive, shortening, coconut, butter powder

    120 of sweetener: syrups, jams, honey, etc

    8 pounds of salt (which also can be used to preserve food)

    50 pounds of milk: powdered

    25 of beverage sweeterner (Tang etc)

    20 pounds meat: if one serving is about a 1/4 pound, you have 80 servings (one meal with meat every 4-5 days): Powdered meat or eggs, canned chicken, spam, etc.

    90 pounds dried fruits and vegetables (1/4 pound per day). About 90 cans from the grocery store, since most cans in the store contain a bit less than a pound

    Spices

    Vitamins

    Seeds

    Recipes (there may not be internet)

    Axe, machete

    Storage

    Dark and cool and dry (under 70 degrees F ie 20 degrees C, but cooler the better). Heat and moisture are not friends to food preservation.

    Mylar bags with oxygen absorbers in the bags (food items that have more space between the items, like pasta, require more oxygen absorbers). Buckets and totes to keep food from being eaten by pests. Label with pens.

    Cooking in water


     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 25,2021
  • How can journalists in the modern era:

    - send data files over the internet between two locations?
    - cross borders without compromising information or sources?

  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 13,2021
  • Bloggers, Things to read, etc.

    YouTubers:
    Sun Knudsen, privacy and security researcher who explains how to set up secure OS.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6YmdRryKZU

     
  • May, 2021
  • May 17,2021
  • A private computing system in 2021

    (in progress)

    Here, experts help us set up a computing setup that is actually private, and explain the various steps and privacy risks at each step. Building a private setup might have different meanings for different people. In this case, we take the example of a family man who wants to keep completely private anything pertaining to him and anyone in his household: anything they write, any photos and videos, and projects they're working on. He uses the internet for websurfing and communications like email, and uses apps on his phone for communications and viewing images and videos, such as instagram and fb. He may cross borders and carries computing devices along with him. These borders include ones with countries that actually kill journalists regularly.

    1: HARDWARE

    IME
    RAM/CPUmemory
    Nature of Android device, Pinephone, versus laptop or tower

    ENCRYPTION
    levels of, at os, disk, programs, internet communications

    2: OS

    We'll only talk about Linux options since the other two have unknown telemetry.

    It seems Ubuntu (Canonical) isn't very secure, but it's the most used. According to Dan, it has at least 4 pieces of spyware pre-installed (telemetry), which can be removed with:

    sudo apt purge ubuntu-report popularity-contest apport whoopsie

    (https://askubuntu.com/questions/1027532/how-to-opt-out-of-system-information-reports)

    3: PROGRAMS

    CACHE
    'DELETED' FILES

    4: INTERNET

     

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  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13,2024
  • Jan 10 SEC approved bitcoin ETFs.

    Jan 28 US media reports an enemy drone killed 3 US personnel in Jordan. Blamed 'Iran-backed militants'. Some days later US struck targets in Iran, even in Tehran, killing people, and said they would do more later.

    Feb 6 Tucker Carlson interviewed Putin in Russia.
     
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 02,2024
  • E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023 - YouTube



  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29,2023
  • 2024 Anticipated Events

    IPOs by Reddit ($10b last valuation but now talk of $15b but critics say should be more like $5b), Stripe, Databricks. Cingenta, the Swiss agrochemicals producer, CVC Captial Partners. ?Restore confidence in IPOs?

    2024 Guessed At

    Will AI buzz, which drew a lot of investment, produce useful results?

    Will there be more trade disputes, between China and EU, as Chinese EV market pushes into Europe?

  • Some of the interesting things this year in events:

    NY insulted the south for their resistent-to-immigrants policy, so Texas started bussing migrants up to NY. NY then had a serious public migrant crisis.

    India may have assasinated a political dissident within Canada, and Canada's government opposed, causing a diplomatic row.

    Musk bought Twitter, but it's problems were not engineering problems. If there is a free and fair election, it will be because even just one social media network is not controlled by politically-aligned Democrats, many have commented. They would otherwise have complete information control, and have shown their prerogative of banning presidents, thought and policial leaders, opponents, and persecuting journalists).

    AI (chatGPT and SD/Dalle/MidJourney) seems to have lifted the entire market unexpectedly, but mostly in the Mag7 stocks, which returned to highs from the previous year, which means they went up 100% or more since the start of 2023. Other stocks didn't do the same, but their weighting brought the S&P up. It may be that the gains from that, after November, fueled an everything rally (we're not sure yet how far it will go as of mid-Dec). There were no AI products besides chatGPT, which wasn't very useful except for wrote tasks, and often provided false information. The image generators also didn't provide much usable results (but things that could be edited, yes). Everyone said AI was a bubble, but it hasn't popped yet a year later.

    There was a minor banking crisis in regional banks (caused by the Fed raising rates when banks had invested in 1.5% long term bonds), and lots of people ran their banks with withdrawals, faster than previous similar instances because of social media and digital banking), but although some thought it might and everyone watched for it possibly happening, it didn't cause a wider banking crisis. Crypto exchanges collapsed (under perhaps fraud or just sillyness) but crypto exhcanges didn't collapse, and the more authentic cryptos rose and went into a bull market along with the stock market.

    Politically-motivated legal persecution of Republicans has been ongoing. Trump has constantly been in court. The idea is to prohibit him from running in the election if he has a criminal record. There has not yet been shown any evidence showing how he may have ‘incited’ an ‘insurrection', but the constant headlines including these 3 terms may make 99% of people assume a link has been actually established according to journalistic standards. Biden's rating continues to make record low approval ratings. The value of making your opponent weaker rather than strengthening your own player.

    China is no longer considered to be an economic powerhouse player, at least in the vigorous way it has been fro the past decade. They had large real estate issues. Sanctions every once in a while between US and China, mostly to do with tech hardware and software. Because there is no data from China, people just guess. They're regularly shaking up Chinese businesses when we read CEOs disappear and IPOs are blocked, government limitations on various industries such as education. Trade disputes with biggest export customers.

  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 29,2021
  • Why we don't use the term 'daesh'

    IS is a group of many people who have joined it independently after making a choice, although their choice seems an error to others, they have never stopped being 'people,' and we are all together, and all making mistakes, which if we have a competent larger society, our mistakes can be covered and we can be brought back wiser.

    The term is used by politicians for political reasons, and even by news organizations, because it is derogatory. But like all terms of this type, it is dismissive and simplifying. It signifies the speaker is going to class these people as garbage and less than human and isn't going to think about them anymore as people.
     

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  • May, 2022
  • May 31,2022
  • Brian Peckford's blog at peckford42 

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