• Dec, 2022
  • Dec 02, 2022
  • Stable coin scams

    If they say the value is pegged to the dollar, and they don't have the capacity to keep that value there.

    They also 'defeat the whole purpose of crypt currencies', Yanis said.
     
  • Bitcoin so far has never been macroeconomically significant - Yanis

    Central banks can create tens of trillions of dollars. The crypto market cannot destabilize that.

    Capitalism is unstable by itself.
     
  • Imagine how much worse the pandemic would have been if we had a fixed supply of money - Varoufakis

    ... Which couldn't just be expanded rapidly by the Fed in response to economic upturns and downturns.

    An apolitical supply of money, like gold.

    It's not that governments have political authority and power to do things, but how they use it, for him. Non-democratic. Any concentration of power which is unequal and not answerable to the people. And also the central power of Google, Facebook, private sources of concentrated power.

    "Decentralizing money like Bitcoin simply creates bitcoin oligarchs. It is not a safe route to democratizing money." Just replacing fiat oligopolies with bitcoin oligopolies.
     
  • The US had a big surge in demand for goods in 2020, 2021, now it's starting to come back to trend.

    Can this prop up an economy?
  • Handbags, among least volatile (2-5% fluctuation) asset class, proven to be good hedges against inflation.

    Hermes, Burkin, Kelly, and some Chanel. Rare, mint, specific colors. A high price for a handbag is like $100k - $300 generally.

     
  • Cash levels are still high. People are holding cash.

    Bullish? S&P is down but maybe we're through the downtrend. And people are waiting with cash (part of which they took out of the market recently).
     
  • Temporary sweet spot with inflation - Dwyer

    With the lowering of goods inflation (they are coming down) you're getting al lift in the services inflation.

    Powell said he doesn't expect housing or housing-related services to start dropping until next year.

    So you're in a temporary sweet spot where you've slowed it enough to keep the goods side down but the services is going to keep it up above where they want it.
     
  • $100 or 300t problem, potentially the biggest ... that the price of money is centrally planned - Dylan LeClair

    50 years into global fiat currency experiment. Reaching a point where global debt burdens are so bloated that the only way out is monetary debasement.

     
  • 'A bursting of the everything bubble'
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 30, 2022
  • A huge source of funds for Euro govts is fining Facebook and Google

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 28, 2022

  • 500k applications to bring in workers. 80k granted. Usually they grant like half.
    Estimated 1.8 legal immigrant shortfall. And bringing them in now can take a year.

    US currently reports 10m job openings and 6m unemployed.

    12% of US population is foreign born. But they are 40 or 50% of STEM labor force, so contribute massively.

    Lack of healthcare workers in some regions.

    Questions about US system of bringing in a family member versus possible system based on meritocracy.
     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 27, 2022

  • "In Lisbon they banned new AirBnBs in the city center last year and immediately house prices fell by about 10%, whereas in the rest of the city (where AirBnB continued to exist) rent and house prices continued to soar."

    "Some Canadian cities require that you live in the property if you want to do short-term rentals. Usually people have a second entrance to what is essentially a full hotel room (personal kitchen, bathroom) in the basement."

    "I used to live in a coastal beach town called rockaway beach, Oregon but when I moved away for a couple years and came back there was nothing in the rental market so I had to get a trailer and live in a trailer park in Tillamook, OR. This system of AirBNB has Destroyed Oregon's Rural coastal communities."

    "You didn't mention other problems with short-time renting - those who rent often do not respect their neighbours and make a lot of noise and throw garbage everywhere (they do not know or care where to get rid of garbage). Where I live - in the centre of Copenhagen - our building's association just decided to force owners to register when they are renting out their apartment, which ended the pratice, because now they were liable to pay damages. BTW- if they rent out the apartment without notifying they can be thrown out of the apartment."

    "It bypasses traditional zoning laws where normally you’d never allow a mini hotel to open in the middle of a residential street."

    "We did this in Paris and Rome. It was great. But I did get the feeling that no one lived in these places and they we only used for short term rentals."

    "... most apartments in old town have been converted in hostels, airbnbs and offices. Nowadays I only go downtown if I have friends visiting, and need to show them culture and history (what remains of it)"
  • Corps in US/UK give away (buybacks/dividends) 90% of their profits. They used to give away 35%. No money left for re-investment.

    Europe 70%.

    Corporate government structure maximizes shortterm gains for shareholders.

    Europe has supervisory boards for over 2000 employee companies. They have very few hostile takeovers. The main German banks also own a bit of the companies. They have a seat and a say.

    US debt


    How much American corporations pay out of their profits


  • In crypto, some are calling for setting up emergency liquidity procedures, creating pools of money to help firms when they struggle with liquidity issues when people start to pull money out. Like with banks.

    Is this the same as ‘centralizing’ this decentralized thing?

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 25, 2022
  • Retail inventory is high (high demand last year and so lots of buying)

    People go things a lot easier than they maybe expected (supply chains).

    It's expected there will be promotions (sales) this season.
  • Household costs in US up around $400 per month, and retail has plateaued, reportedly, and restaurants too

    Luxury is doing well though, especially watches, women's accessories (rare items).


  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 24, 2022
  • Crypto (after FTX)

    'Sometimes you need to battle-test the infrastructure and the thesis (and see who are the survivors)' - Kathy Wood on crypto

    "Cleansing bad players" - Tom Lee. 2023 if there's more fraud, Bitcoin will probably have another bad year, but good companies will emerge out of it, like how JPM came out of 08. Similarly, from the old internet, there were lots of software and media companies (Yahoo), which most people today have never heard of. Many went bankrupt. A few are big now.

    There were 2 big 'white knight' players in a supposedly-supposed-to-be decentralized industry, FTX and Binance. Now there's just Binance. Binance is bailing out FTX and others. What happens if something happens to Binance. Who's going to bail out Binance?

    Mix of lots of customer money, non-disclosure, and leverage (borrowing against it), and inside these companies trading.

    The public, around the world, has got hurt by this. Laws can protect investors. Going into courts, telling judges the facts and the laws.

    Celebrities. People can fall prey to their promotions, their marketing.

    Education ('this is speculative') is part of the SEC strategy.

    Of all the cryptos, Solana, etc, only 2 or 3 or 10 will survive. The next coins will be gen 3 or 4 or 5. Zuckerburg saw what was there at the time, learned from it, and improved it. Google saw other search engines at the time. Shkreli talked about this stuff.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 21, 2022

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 18, 2022

  • Immigration down to 200k. Used to be like a million legal immigrants. Nobody has labor.


     

  • Why people say the Fed is basing its actions off the wrong inflation dataset. Government reports rents as rising because of the lag.

     

  • People are now spending on their credit cards.

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 17, 2022

  • FRED, Central Bank digital currency, biggest holder of mortgages, Citi, BNU Mellon, US Bank, Wells, etc. France, Switzerland, Singapore cross-border CBDC.

    BIS is a private institution overseeing government things. Control over purchases, no cash, government can freeze accounts like Canadian Truckers participation and support. Events can also be faked while backdroors are pushed through. One digital identity mapped across all bank accounts, KYC. Carbon scores, social credit.

     
  • What will happen with prices in the next couple years?


    Defaults is one of the most trailing things to look at. - Ivelina Green, founder & CEO at Pearlstone Alternative

    Owners of companies will do anything before handing over keys to lenders. Rescue financing, support from sponsors, first.

    Usually in the past, companies with poor balance sheets, low in cash, cyclical, but this time they haven't really been sold off because there's so little liquidity people know that if they try to sell some of those credits they'll simply push down prices 30 or 40 points and still won't be able to sell risk. So instead people are selling winners.

    Exciting for distressed investors (who look at prices based on a 3 or 4 year timeframe), who can buy non-distressed assets at distressed prices.
     
  • UK bond crisis over past few years

     
  • NY maybe paid $2b in fraudulent payments over past couple years

    (What would the total USA number be? Could be a few hundred B, said Sullian.)



  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 16, 2022
  • How much high talent is Apple, Google, Facebook hoarding?

    In this podcast, an anecdote where someone tried to hire a developer from Apple, but the developer said that even if you paid him more (which would be a lot), he wouldn't leave because at Apple they don't ask him to do anything, so he has a lot of leisure to think about his own future startup.

    Samo Burja: Bismarck Analysis and geopolitical uncertainty - YouTube  round 49:00 or so

  • New home inventory building rapidly.

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 15, 2022
  • "The week that hero worship died" - Michael Batnik on Musk and other personalities

    "Oh Sequoia invested. Blackrock invested." That part is done.
     
  • "The dollar is a mood ring telling us about the inflation expectations embedded in the markets."

    - Josh Brown
  • Large tech companies, in addition to laying off workers, are 'puking up large amounts of retail space back onto the market.'
  • Goldman's de-inflation prediction

    Everything going in the right direction, basically.

    "We expect core inflation to fall significantly in 2023 for three key reasons," wrote Goldman. " 1) a negative swing in the contribution from supply-constrained goods categories, following supply-chain improvements, 2) a peak in shelter categories reflecting a further rebound in vacancies and a waning boost from reopening and the return to cities, and 3) slower wage growth, reflecting the continuing rebalancing of the labor market."

    Inflation due to supply constraints are presently adding 0.6 percentage points to the core PCE, but this will shift to minus 0.4 percentage points towards the end of next year, accounting for nearly half the slowdown in the overall core measure.

    "Supply chain disruptions and shipping congestion eased significantly in 2022, and inventories of cars and consumer goods have rebounded from extremely depressed levels. The supply of semiconductors in particular has improved dramatically, with automotive microchip shipments now 42% above 2019. This has already catalyzed a 5% decline in the used car CPI, and we assume another 15% drop in 2023," Goldman explained.

    Shelter inflation should peak this spring, Goldman reckons, as recent strong demand for rental properties has already sparked an increase in supply, with 1 million apartments under construction, the biggest pipeline since the mid 1970's.

    "Rental vacancies rates are starting to rebound as a result and are likely to return to pre-pandemic rates next year. Additionally, the boost from continuing leases renewing at market rates now appears to be reflected in the monthly pace of shelter inflation, as CPI microdata reveal that it already embeds an acceleration in renewal rent growth to 8% year-on-year. Also, rent inflation for new leases has fallen sharply: we estimate to just +3% annualized last quarter," says Goldman.

    Finally, a softer jobs market should suppress wage growth and help reduce service sector inflation by late 2023.

    "Labor market rebalancing is already lowering wage growth, particularly in sectors with large declines in the jobs-workers gap such as retail and leisure. We expect year-on-year wage growth to fall by 1.5 percentage points to 4% by late 2023, helping to slow inflation in labor-intensive services categories."

    Goldman does note however that the market consensus is for core PCE to fall even lower to 2.7% by late 2023, but reckons this is over optimistic as core services inflation will remain above 4%.

    "This reflects a lower but still elevated pace of shelter inflation later in the year, as well as an outright increase in healthcare inflation in part reflecting the largest Medicare fee update in at least 15 years," the bank concludes.

    From:



  • CNBC talked about getting caught up in the story of these founders, like FTX, like Theranos

    "He really created quite an extraordinary persona. I loved the sleeping in the office, the attire, he's playing the part, right? I think If he had been driving around a Lamborghini, people would have been like Wow we really gotta look a little more closely."

    "But he's this guy in a T-shirt who can't even comb his hair, and you think, he's gotta be a genius."

    "He doesn't care about money, he just seems to care about ..."

    "His vision. Strategy."

    They also pointed out that investing has been as a group in Silicon Valley. Clubby. Fomo. The biggest investors all in the same deals.

    Backing up something that was really supporting something that was supported by nothing.

    Compound also talked about this. He was heralded as a boy genius, the adult in the room. He tried 20 of the best investors, including Blackrock, Sequoia.

    Why wasn't more diligence done? Even what kind of diligence would have uncovered fraud.

    However, there were people who were skeptical of SBF. But when you just got the headlines about him. 'Oh he's just like JP Morgan,' and you just accepted it. Social proof. It was the second biggest, so why shouldn't they have so much money?

    He bought the naming rights to the stadium (Super Bowl) and made friends with all the celebrities. Simultaneously he was posturing as, "No, we're the compliant ones. We're the ones that are engaging with lawmakers."

     
  • People aren't saying the Fed is going to ease up yet (although some are saying they could or should have a while ago), but they are saying a point where the Fed eases up can potentially now be seen.

    Tech companies have announced and are laying of thousands of people.

    It's been hawky for months and no doves, and now it'll be more mixed, some say.

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 14, 2022
  • Big 5 losing leadership?

    Over a process measured in years, not months, as the big tech names in 1999.

     
  • Gravitas: The impact of Silicon Valley layoffs on Indian Techies - YouTube 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 13, 2022

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 12, 2022
  • FTX grew fast and no one really understood where the money came from

    More forensic accountants and less economists and quants, it'd help detect what was going on in countries and companies, said Summers

  • The swings seem strong

    When the market goes down, what people say is quite pessimistic, so listening to things on that day you wouldn't expect the market to go up for a very long time, but on days when the market goes up, it seems like no one's really bearish.
  • What won't de-inflate?

    Clothing, medical equipment ...


  • How much does the cryto loss take out of the USD abundance, and bring the let's-say 'over' wealth lower?
  • Market bears (Minard, Weiss) are buying right now

    Inflation is coming down, they say. They had been expecting 20% down. They've recently been buying. They haven't said they now think it's a bull market, but that currently, or temporarily perhaps, it's a buying opportunity.

    A 'bottoming process' now, or still in a bear market?
     
  • What's the difference between bitcoin and the USD?

    (If bitcoin is just fake money, with nothing of real value behind it, what is USD?)

    $30t economy, full faith in credit, and Federal Reserve is behind the dollar, interest-bearing securities in which you can place your dollar with a relative degree of safety, USD still a very highly-rated credit despite debt to GDP levels. ... Ron Isana.

    "It's a real thing." Comprises 65% of global trade. 95% of global exchange transfers. It's a reserve currency (bitcoin isn't, and "doesn't exist in any form except in the minds of those who created it.")

    "We've done this a million times in the past, whether it's tulip bulbs, railroad bonds, electronics companies or bad internet companies. The underlying internet was important but a lot of the players like CNGI disappear because they had no functional use case"

    Blockchain technology is useful though. (It is the underlying tech, and crypto is the overlay.) Cheaper, frictionless transactions, more secure, transparent.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 10, 2022
  • A few signs of slowing inflation. S&P up 5.5% for the day. DOW 3.7%.
  • Siegel says inflation is basically over, and Fed doesn't need to even do what it's probably going to do, as he's said for around three months

    More than 8% is what they're saying inflation is at, but Siegel says it's nowhere near that really.

    It's actually negative (not even just at 0). We're in negative core inflation mode, if the Fed uses the right stats. They've been using faulty statistics, he says.

    They should use the ACTUAL home and rental price in. The one the Fed uses is lagged.

    He thinks they'll probalby go 50 and then announce a pause.


  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 09, 2022


  • Nov 8 catalyst.
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 08, 2022

  • From The Compound

  • Changes in people selling Chinese products to world. It seems Ali Express is not allowing people to sell from them through 3rd party apps as before.

    Now, it seems, people need to register for a category of products in China (license for some categories), which cost over $1000 (deposit of 10,000CNY or 30,000CNY seem most common), so the online store can dropship from China. It seems you can still dropship from another country.

    Also talk of 'wire transfer' for cash. Because PayPal has a high fee.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 06, 2022
  • What goes into inflation numbers? Something people have been looking at now - Didn't have to be accurate with it before

    Krugman's recent EconEd 2022 lecture

    Some things are clearly just volatile prices, and some had been included in core inflation.

    If you exclude food and energy, or if you exclude extreme movements, what you basically end up with is housing. Housing is core inflation, 40% of core CPI.

    Rent is a lagging indicator. Leases. It can lag way behind when there are big shifts.

    Krugman says inflation is 4-7%. Probably 5%.

    Inflation expectations for this year are high, but for a few years ahead they're more stable. So an overheated economy. People talk about a coming plunge in inflation.

    ‘We have enough policy credibility this time that the public has not updated its expectations of future inflation based on recent inflation.’ (As opposed to what had to be done in the 70s, ie create a big unemployment rate, because everyone expected 10% inflation in perpetuity.)

    Inflation depends both upon unemployment and expected inflation.

    China shipping costs were crazy and are now down almost to pre-pandemic. Supply chain issues have been fading away. Rents on realtor.com appear to have peaked.
  • Jobless claims stayed low. Fed didn't pivot or pause. Waiting for slack in the labor market.
  • Fed's issue is not that Americans are making more money. It's that they're earnings are going up more than productivity is going up. - Santelli
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 03, 2022
  • S Korea, 2022

    BTS brings $3.6b annually into S Korea

    7% of visitors there were motivated by the band

    K-drama and other series, films. Food.

    160k foreign students in S Korea versus less than 20k in 2003.

    What is the effect of their success/popularity on N Korea?

    How should S Korea leverage its soft power to get its goals? How can it enhance their national security, economy?



  • Buying a house next year will be with a 9% rate, it's expected

    Versus 3% before. That's like a 50% increase in the mortgage payment. - Zeihan
     
  • Economic booms give rise to weird money industries, when interest rates at 0 ('money is free'), past 15 years

    Chinese boom, Japanese boom, subprime, crypto (this boom).

  • Unlike US, some other countries don't HAVE demand from Millenials (the main demand source in economies), so can't just raise rates - Zeihan

    If they raise too much, it would be their last economic expansion.

    "This was always going to be sort of the end of the road for a lot of Asia and East Europe."

    So US 6% is like the minimum, because they need a lot of tools for next time.
     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 01, 2022

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 28, 2022
  • People talking about Fed going to stop hiking

    Market went down below 3800 because, partly, if felt like things were going not that great all over the place. What was going on in the UK, Bank of Japan having to intervene. Credit Suise maybe being insolvent.
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 27, 2022
  • There's no momentum in the economy, say others.

    Yield curve, normalized for the level of rates, it's never been more inverted.

    US dollar is so strong, US manufacturing will face a hit due to overseas product that is cheaper.

    Last 6 recessions, 4 of them the economy grew 3 or so % right before the downturn.
     
  • Which Stocks Might Benefit After Biden Signed The Infrastructure Bill? | Seeking Alpha (If Infrastructure Spending)
     
    However, costs of materials and labor.
  • People who had owned Amazon and other Big Tech did so because they thought there was some safety in it, but are now seeing that's not the case.
  • Revenge of the Old Economy - Jeffrey Currie

    Due to the Under-investment Thesis. Poor returns / stagnating demand over the previous decade saw capital redirected into the new economy (all that Tech), starving the old economy of funds it needed to grow the supply base, infrastructure aged, creating a lot of the problems we're seeing today.

    Oil large cycles last 10 or 12 years in past instances (70s, 02 to 2014).

    The revenge of the old economy | Financial Times 2021: "Indeed, the old economy was overbuilt, debt-laden and over-polluted. While the old economy only represents about 35 per cent of global gross domestic product, it generated at least 2 times the corporate losses, had about 90 per cent of the non-financial debt and created 80 per cent of the emissions. It is no wonder why investors preferred Big Tech to oil and copper."
     
  • Tech stocks, in order to see good performance, need to show corporate benefits, but with these companies the question is not Can they? but rather Do they want to?

    They're owned by single people who have controlling shares, and don't need to listen to the market or even their boards. Normal market disciplinary forces don't really apply the same for them.

    The owners are so rich that even if the stock goes down 50% they're not too affected personally.

    They may have always been like that, but the stocks were going up so no one cared. Now there might be a renewed focus on Corporate Governance and how the governor responds.

    Amazon, long ago, was allowed by shareholders to lose money for years, but they explained where they were going.

    Emperors of old.

     
  • Some say chance of a soft landing is going to be considered more likely

    Real world inflation, some say, is falling (although not CPI), and so Fed is close to the end of its action. Meanwhile, employment rate is still 3.5%, spending is strong, spending is up 10% YoY.
  • Caterpillar had good earnings, and Industrials, Q3 2022
  • India

    Dependent-age population smaller than working-age population. Until around 2060.

    Did lots of reforms over past 8 years, allow record-high tax collection (small and medium sized enterprises brought in). Can spend on bridges, highways.
  • Is China no longer going to focus on the Market-Based Economy that had them rise in the world?
  • Dow up 4 straight weeks. Market up this week.

    People talking a lot about Is big tech done? Amazon, Facebook, etc, dropped significantly on negative quarterly report.

    Big tech was the market leader for years (top 5 in S&P, which is the only index people really consider to be the market, and those 5 make up 20% of the S&P. You could count on them, they consistently put up great numbers, and were almost seen as defensive). Now people are saying they got too big to really grow much anymore, and the markets will now maybe have new leaders. They don't know what that will be, but right now it looks like Industrials.

    For locations, developed countries look good say some. Lots of them. Countries with good governance.
     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 25, 2022

  • Stock market bottoms before other things in the economy, usually (but we can't say for sure this time).

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 24, 2022
  • Earnings and the state of the economy (US) Q3 2022

    Banks seem to be doing quite well. Brands like food and beverage, fashion, mixed results, some citing the recession-type things and others saying they're not seeing any such effect.

    Large-cap tech reports will come this week. Bar's already been lowered for Q3.

    Caterpillar and Boeing (companies that are outside big cap tech) (bellwether type names) will give an idea about the effect of the strong US dollar and the US economy and what can be / is being purchased.

    All the goings-on in China, how hammered Chinese tech stocks have been by the government there.

    An investor quoted Jack Ma (I don't know when he said it), "I think among the richest men in China, few have good endings."

    If you are a business-owner in China, you are fearful, the investor said. It's not subtle.

    Everyone also wants to see what Apple does. Such a revaluation/reset in tech names.
     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 18, 2022
  • Netflix beat on top and bottom of earnings, added 2.4m subs

    Talk of 'recession-proof,' because 'if you lose your job you need it even more,' Josh Brown quote
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 17, 2022
  • Fed is not going to stop until either something breaks in the Capital Markets and the Fed pivots, OR earnings come down not 2, 3, 4% but rather 10% - Chris Harvey

    Something breaks = collapse of a currency, something in Ukraine ...

    CPI is the Fed's focus. They need it down. For their credibility, also.

    Interest rates, demand, supply chain, are rolling over now, so inflation looks like it might be going to cool. The fundamentals have to come down, and Harvey thinks we'll have a recession.
     
  • Goldman undertaking a big reshuffle.

    Maybe because underperforming or having a 'maturity outlook.' To reduce costs, even if it's at the managing director level.

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 16, 2022

  • Out of the media products (subscriptions) being paid for, dating apps are the one that they're most not satisfied with, so they might get cut. 94% satisfied with TV and streaming, 72% satisfied with dating apps.
  • Contrary to expectations by lots of people over the past months, subscriptions are not being cut back much.

    18% of household budgets is spent on subscriptions services (including products and services like Amazon).

    Another surprise is that for a lot of Americans, they see Amazon as a media outlet, not a products and sales site (Amazon buys and deliveries).

     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 14, 2022
  • Exclusive: Musk’s SpaceX says it can no longer pay for satellite services in Ukraine | World News - YouTube 
  • Is Amazon more a utility, or more a retailer with shipping?

    Headlines this week include Amazon workers striking (has been going on for a while now).
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 05, 2022
  • 'Apple is a kind of mature company now. It's not going to come out with the next big tech product like it did with the iPhone.' - an investor
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 03, 2022
  • Housing

    Discouraged buyers and affordability challenges.

    (2008 was about distressed sellers and foreclosures and the inability to hold onto your property when you went through any kind of job loss ... and THAT was about excessive egregious credit.)

    Prices too high with the higher (4%) rates. Prices have dropped in recent months. Even sellers, who after selling have to buy another home, are discouraged from buying.

    Before most sale pressure was the outskirts of the cities (remote work ability allowed this). Now it's both, inside and outskirts of the city. Most pressure in affordable units.

    Not a good market for flipping (into a softer market, expected). Also not a good market for buying a house you can't afford.


     
  • Basically everyone is bearish. I don't hear anyone being bullish now
  • New hires are down, although firings (new jobless claims) remain too strong for inflation to cool

    However, some poll said 70% of Americans are seeking secondary work to pay bills. Whatever that means though.
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 23, 2022
  • Housing: There’s a ‘huge in-migration’ into ‘lower-cost areas,’ analyst says - YouTube 
  • Tom Lee appeared to show signs of flagging his optimism in most recent CNBC interview.

    First time I've seen that.
  • Long Term Investors Can Start Buying in This Market

    some say
  • 60/40 portfolio is good now, for the first time in 11 years

    1-year bonds yield 4%.
     
  • Third part collections are very low

    Probably the leading edge for an indicator of recession (jobless claims would be one of the last) - Josh Brown

     
  • Cross-messaging

    Fedex and Walmart warning. Meanwhile, Ralph Lauren and VISA saying they aren't seeing ANY sign of stress.
     
  • Known brands did well in 2020-2021

    Draft Kings, Telsa, Peloton. New investors with RobinHood accounts knew what these companies were and bought their fav companies. Apple.

     
  • Josh Brown and Michael Batnick had an investors conference (like 1000 investors and a group total of a couple thou)

    Number 1 thing people concerned about is housing. Almost 1/5 of the economy, when you consider building etc, banks etc. It's nothing like 2008 though (everything from creditworthiness to supply/demand looks stronger).

    2 years ago housing became the national pastime.

    Bid/ask spread now is massive, and the number of homes sold in big cities are down like 40 - 60%. Sellers (who bought a year or two ago during the bubble) are anchored to a price that's not real anymore. However, the selling prices are still up like 20%.

    There are 80m homeowners in the US. 5m people are looking for a house. Although the current owners of houses have overwhelmingly good credit, new buyers (rates recently doubled for the first time ever) are maybe shut out of buying a home. So what does that mean if no one can buy a home now (although those who already have them are doing fine)? The number 1 step in building credit for Americans is buying a house.

    Renters are seeing 20% increases. Potential for a competing-against-landlords (who have all cash or Wall Street financing) situation. This is different from 2008 also. Institutional buyers (like Blackrock) operate in certain cities a lot, so if they're in that city you could be priced out.
     
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 22, 2022
  • Has been through two economic drawdowns, has a dividend, and buys back stock, quality management, discount to market valuation - the things Leon Cooperman looks for in current stock market
     
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 17, 2022
  • People have been saying the Fed has an integrity problem now

    15 months ago they said the rate in mid-2023 would be zero. Now they're saying 4%. Larry Summers says he wouldn't be surprised if it was higher than that.
  • Shopping Centers

    After all the (dubious, a few would say) talk that after the pandemic shopping was going to be completely changed (paradigm) and no one would go to stores anymore, some have noted that it was that very pandemic that showed that retail shops had their place.

    Unable to buy needed items online due to shortages, people went to local stores, particularly shopping centers. Also because they felt they needed to get out of the house. Curbside pickup developed, so going into stores was not necessary. Stores looked again at investing in their trucking. Companies have focused on eCom for 15 years and are now looking again at their store fleets. (Pricing power to landlords, resulting in higher earnings and dividends for them.) Stores realized the bulk of their sales still come from traditional shopping centers or malls.

    Also, many people moved out of the city. A trend towards living in homes. In those areas, the main shopping destination is large shopping centers, malls. Going to shopping centers was like the only 'acceptable' place to go during lockdown.

    The US is over-retailed. The big shopping centers consolidate their power, while some malls do flag.

     
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 16, 2022
  • EU has stocked up their energy reserves to 82%, already above their target of 80% for October

    Confidence in EU growing they can go through winter without severe economic problems or rationing.

    Russia selling its energy to China and India, but at a greater-than-ever discount. R getting a weaker trade position due to lack of potential trading partners.

     
  • Russian economy holding up versus sanctions et al better than many expected

    Although doing worse than Europeans who are suffering from the sanctions imposed on Russia as well.

    R. central bank moved quickly to impose capital controls and sharply hike interest rates (20%, incentivizing Russians to keep their money in Russian banks) partially stabilized the ruble. Higher oil prices offset the Russia discount. Rising sales of energy to China, India and Turkey offset decline in sales to Europe. (Oil revenues estimated down 20%). The central bank forced companies to convert 80% of the money they earn overseas into rubles. Demand for R. currency helps prop it up. R citizens were prevented from converting more than $10k into other currencies.

    = high interest rate, forced buying of the ruble, and currency near impossible to sell.

    = we don't know the true exchange rate. Ruble can only really be BOUGHT in significant quantity.

    = ruble appears high in value, but few would buy it, some say, unless they were forced to.
  • Lots of active managers are telling their clients 'Just buy and hold, don't look at your statements in the short term. You have to invest long term. And investing when the market is low is better than when it is high when you're doing long-term investing.' Their sentiment, however, is largely that the market will continue to bear in the nearterm (couple months, midterms, etc).
  • Fed will be done with hiking early next year - Tom Lee

    Because inflation has peaked, and will go from 8% today to 4% early next year to 2.5% later next year, according to the bond market, Lee said.

    That's not changed by the discouragingly high CPI report we just saw. Maybe the level of the hikes will change but not the timeline.

    "When we see markets convinced (2 decade high) inflation is broken, PE is going to go up dramatically." (Maybe this will be seen even in the October CPI).

    Recency bias accounts for the prevailing bearishness.

    With Fedex, taking down expectations might be true for some smaller beta, but PE is going to change dramatically when inflation risk is taken out of equity risk premium, Lee said.
  • The US is big enough that it will leverage the rest of the world down - Rick Santelli

    Eurozone CPI inflation up 9%. Pound at lowest level since 1985. 

    Developing global recession. For US, maybe a rolling recession (different parts get recession at  different times).
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 13, 2022
  • During uncertain and changing times, differentiation stands out more - Bill Ready
     
    Pinterest has actual people curating.
  • Incentivized to invest in automation, with labor rates rising
  • Chequeing deposits 4x pre-pandemic. Lots of surface liquidity. But demand is struggling (housing, everyone is just buying groceries not electronics or clothes) - Paul Christopher
  • "There's no way globalization breaks for the Chinese in a positive way." - Zeihan
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 29, 2022
  • Recession signs?

    'Lost my job, can't pay rent' Google search term up 500% (in how much time?

    MLB down compared with 2019 (but was going down before the pandemic). How much is a postpandemic fear of crowds?

    Generic instead of brands up like 20 or 30% maybe.

    Mens' underwear sales (no data yet, just a sign they're watching).
     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 20, 2022
  • Russian 'Stars Coffee' to replace Starbucks

    With a brand design basically a Starbucks ripoff.

    Why would they not take this opportunity to create a global brand competitor?
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 19, 2022
  • All midterm years result in higher market between October's election day and June - Joe Teranova
  • Over 3 million barrels of oil will be lost by November, says Husseini Energy's Sadad Al Husseini - YouTube 
  • Sept 6 will be the day many workers are expected back at the office (or not)

    Those who may not be expected back: Those with children or family needs as reasons to be at home, coders and journalists and workers who do better in a quiet environment, and people who were hired remotely and don't live in the same place as the business and never did.

    "They can't take your desk away from you if you're sitting at it," was an expression in the 80s when people didn't want to lose their jobs. Workers have had a lot of power recently in the relationship, but that may shift now (many are talking about it doing so).

    Some Millenials and GenZers, who have lived their lives online and virtually (and therefore are considered best suited to not want to go to the office) are saying they want to go to the office to show their employers what they can do. Those who were hired remotely have never had the opportunity to meet their managers and coworkers physically. "When is someone gonna tag me so I can actually fight for the team?"

    Some say to move up you need to be there in person. Who promotes someone they've never met? Who puts someone in charge who's never interacted with people? How do you share experience with upcoming members? Why should you offer fulltime work to someone who's not there physically, instead of just contract or part time?
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 18, 2022
  • The 10-year is at 2.8. "That's hardly where it was in the 80s. The 10-year should properly reflect inflation expectations and at 2.8 it's really a market that thinks inflation gets back towards 2% after a couple years." - Tom Lee

    "And then people talk about the inverted yield curve between 10-year and 2-year. But what they have to keep in mind is that if inflation for the next few years is at 4, the 2-year HAS to be higher than the 10. So you're gonna get a forced inversion just because the contours of inflation and it doesn't mean that the curve on a real basis inverted. So I think the bond market is telling us a better story than the equity investors wanna believe."


  • "Last 9 months investors have been convinced inflation will be with us for years, and it's very sticky, but it's proven to be a lot less sticky, and maybe even more sensitive to gasoline falling, because of how gasoline moves through the services CPI.

    "And if that's correct, we are tracking more towards a soft landing ... and that would mean that markets have already discounted much of the Fed tightening."

    Tom Lee
     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 16, 2022
  • Peak leverage in labor market, voiced

    5% down to 10m open jobs in June.
    Pulling back as they have less success in hiring, and they're reassessing how they operate their business. But still frothy labor market.
     
    The employers doing well are recruiting talent rather than posting job openings.
  • US housing starts fell 10% in July
  • Shipping costs may be peaking (but costs coming down really a 2023 event)

    Labor costs still up.