Economic diversification, inclusive growth, logistics, improve business environment, strengthen competitiveness, access to quality education

Current account deficit, relative to GDP

Structural tax reform that improves progressivity and strengthens business competitiveness, to create space for key social spending, pension reform

OECD since 2020

Multi-year peace negotiations

Agreement on a framework for transitional justice

FARC participation in the political process and agreement on illicit narcotic crops


Procedure to ratify the peace agreements

Weaker growth by Colombia's trading partners


IMF 2016 team for Colombia report: Jorge Roldós (Head), Sergi Lanau, Francisco Roch, and
Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado (all WHD), Manrique Saenz (SPR), and
Mohamed Afzal Norat (MCM). María Angélica Arbeláez (OED)
participated in most of the meetings. Cristina Barbosa and Andrea
Herrera provided editorial support.


Credit rating:

Oct 6, 2021: Moody's maintained at BAA2 and improved its outlook on the country from negative to stable, saying government fiscal measures and post-pandemic recovery will stabilize its debt. ... In Sept, gov raised business taxes and enshrine cuts to government administrative spending, in early September despite objections from unions and other groups. ...

“The affirmation of Colombia’s Baa2 ratings is supported by the government’s track record of prudent macroeconomic management and capacity to build consensus and promote policies that foster economic growth and support fiscal metrics. The stable outlook reflects Moody’s expectation that the fiscal measures approved by the government and the post-pandemic economic recovery will support debt stabilization. The stable outlook also assumes that the next administration will maintain prudent macroeconomic policies.”

Analysts have repeatedly warned that the tax reform will offer only short-term fiscal relief and the next government - set to take office in August 2022 - will face pressure to propose a more structural bill.

The central bank’s technical team last week raised its growth estimate to 8.6% for this year, from a previous 7.5%.


June 2022. Colombia appeared to have the most growth among the OCDE this year, but commenters wondered if it were just because of the relative bounce from Covid restrictions, or if it was just that government statistics are not reliable or that the results may not represent real GDP (ie nominal GDP growth minus inflation). Among the things said about Colombia by commenters in response to the study, "Nothing has changed in the Colombian economy no new factories or industry and tourism has still not recuperated. If these stats are anything close to accurate its simply because of a Covid bounce and the unfortunate fact that the Colombian consumers are on a massive credit binge that is unsustainable and will lead to disaster. I had several meetings with banks in the last few weeks and they need money to supply the loan demand,but privately they are rolling their eyes at the ridiculous nature of it all." ... "buy now pay later is getting more publicity for Colombian nationals, there's a huge credit binge and it's not being supported by any external financing too, most foreigners are refused credit too. I don't think there's much of a "save for a rainy day" culture here either.... The saving grace for now is their revenue from coal/oil/gas exports but this will even out eventually. Many businesses also boom here not because of a strong economy but they exist to wash money." ... "High oil prices." ... "it costs money to declare a business bankrupt here. it costs money to open it, you pay taxes on losses, you pay taxes on rent, you pay taxes on absolutely everything. ass backwards, upside down insane economy..."


June 20, 2022 (takes office Aug 7) Colombia elected it's first left-wing president (many say 'socialist').

Commenter: "Colombia gets 70% of its power from hydroelectric. It has plenty of energy. I don’t think Petro will do too much damage. He will have the power to stop new oil explorations but won’t pause on-going explorations. He doesn’t have the support, charisma or energy Chavez had. He will be more like AMLO, Correa, Lula and other American socialist leaders. Definitely not ideal but not catastrophic. Colombia’s future lies in value added manufacturing which Petro and Rodolfo both were in favor of. The risk is if Petro scares away foreign investment into infrastructure and factories it will delay Colombia’s growth 4 or more years."

Another: "However, Colombia is inherently in a better place due to its younger population and resources. As well as limited and localized diet. I do, however, see potential trouble with rice and a bit of bean supply as they import almost all if their rice. From 2020 data 58% came from US, 20% from Peru and 20% from Ecuador. If I ate that much rice as they do, I would learn how to store it. Also, corn and wheat. I'm planting corn and climbing beans all around my neighborhood actually. Cause it's going to hit hard within a year."