Economic diversification

Inclusive growth

Logistics

Improve business environment

Strengthen competitiveness

Access to quality education
 
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Current account deficit, relative to GDP

Structural tax reform that improves progressivity and strengthens business competitiveness, to create space for key social spending, pension reform

OECD since 2020

Multi-year peace negotiations

Agreement on a framework for transitional justice

FARC participation in the political process and agreement on illicit narcotic crops

Disarmament

Procedure to ratify the peace agreements

Weaker growth by Colombia's trading partners

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IMF 2016 team for Colombia report: Jorge Roldós (Head), Sergi Lanau, Francisco Roch, and
Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado (all WHD), Manrique Saenz (SPR), and
Mohamed Afzal Norat (MCM). María Angélica Arbeláez (OED)
participated in most of the meetings. Cristina Barbosa and Andrea
Herrera provided editorial support.

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Credit rating:

Oct 6, 2021: Moody's maintained at BAA2 and improved its outlook on the country from negative to stable, saying government fiscal measures and post-pandemic recovery will stabilize its debt. ... In Sept, gov raised business taxes and enshrine cuts to government administrative spending, in early September despite objections from unions and other groups. ...


“The affirmation of Colombia’s Baa2 ratings is supported by the government’s track record of prudent macroeconomic management and capacity to build consensus and promote policies that foster economic growth and support fiscal metrics. The stable outlook reflects Moody’s expectation that the fiscal measures approved by the government and the post-pandemic economic recovery will support debt stabilization. The stable outlook also assumes that the next administration will maintain prudent macroeconomic policies.”

 

Analysts have repeatedly warned that the tax reform will offer only short-term fiscal relief and the next government - set to take office in August 2022 - will face pressure to propose a more structural bill.

The central bank’s technical team last week raised its growth estimate to 8.6% for this year, from a previous 7.5%.

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