Shift in psychologyHasn't happened, but might be happening now, where the public goes from thinking

Feb 21, 2023
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Shift in psychology

Hasn't happened, but might be happening now, where the public goes from thinking there can be a soft landing and the economic issue if fixed, to where they realize there has to be a recession.

More likely the U.S. economy goes into recession the next few months, says Canaccord's Tony Dwyer - YouTube

Leading indicators as they are now have historically always meant a recession ahead.

Not just money supply but bank lending standards and the demand for CNI loans have tightened to a level that leads to a recession. The data shows a recession, Dwyer said.

Stocks markets have never bottomed before a recession. Average time from beginning of a recession to market bottom is half a year.

"We know that when the 2-year is making a peak, the S&P has never made THE low until after the 2 year peaks. That means the October low isn't it. We also know that the market has never bottomed before the recession even began."

We're over a year into this bear market. The next low will be the low, and will be when bad news finally will become bad news. That's typically when you make the recession-based low. Dwyer will go for early cycle names at that time. Financials and economically-sensitive cyclical names.

"The soft landing scenario is not the best case scenario. We don't have to guess. We know exactly what's going to happen if you're in a soft landing. Inflation is going to remain elevated. The Fed is going to have to tighten. And the market, and risk is going to get hit."

"What we really need is to go into a recession to the point where the Fed will lower rates enough that it kickstarts a credit cycle. Not now when we're about to enter a potential negative cycle."

An unemployment rate of a half a percent for an average of 3 months above the low, you know you're in a recession. Ie if the US get's a 3.9% unemployment rate. Should be about to make a low. Creates an opportunity for a real, sustainable bull market. The problem is money, not just the thought of money. The money system is shut down.
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<div>Shift in psychology</div><div><br></div><div>Hasn't happened, but might be happening now, where the public goes from thinking there can be a soft landing and the economic issue if fixed, to where they realize there has to be a recession.</div><div><br></div> <div><a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9opeWiBMQFI">More likely the U.S. economy goes into recession the next few months, says Canaccord's Tony Dwyer - YouTube</a> <br></div><div><br></div><div>Leading indicators as they are now have historically always meant a recession ahead. <br></div><div><br></div><div>Not just money supply but bank lending standards and the demand for CNI loans have tightened to a level that leads to a recession. The data shows a recession, Dwyer said.</div><div><br></div><div>Stocks markets have never bottomed before a recession. Average time from beginning of a recession to market bottom is half a year. <br></div><div><br></div><div>"We know that when the 2-year is making a peak, the S&P has never made THE low until after the 2 year peaks. That means the October low isn't it. We also know that the market has never bottomed before the recession even began."<br><br>We're over a year into this bear market. The next low will be the low, and will be when bad news finally will become bad news. That's typically when you make the recession-based low. Dwyer will go for early cycle names at that time. Financials and economically-sensitive cyclical names. <br></div><div><br></div><div>"The soft landing scenario is not the best case scenario. We don't have to guess. We know exactly what's going to happen if you're in a soft landing. Inflation is going to remain elevated. The Fed is going to have to tighten. And the market, and risk is going to get hit."</div><div><br></div><div>"What we really need is to go into a recession to the point where the Fed will lower rates enough that it kickstarts a credit cycle. Not now when we're about to enter a potential negative cycle."</div><div><br></div><div>An unemployment rate of a half a percent for an average of 3 months above the low, you know you're in a recession. Ie if the US get's a 3.9% unemployment rate. Should be about to make a low. Creates an opportunity for a real, sustainable bull market. The problem is money, not just the thought of money. The money system is shut down. <br></div>
Shift in psychology

Hasn't happened, but might be happening now, where the public goes from thinking there can be a soft landing and the economic issue if fixed, to where they realize there has to be a recession.

More likely the U.S. economy goes into recession the next few months, says Canaccord's Tony Dwyer - YouTube

Leading indicators as they are now have historically always meant a recession ahead.

Not just money supply but bank lending standards and the demand for CNI loans have tightened to a level that leads to a recession. The data shows a recession, Dwyer said.

Stocks markets have never bottomed before a recession. Average time from beginning of a recession to market bottom is half a year.

"We know that when the 2-year is making a peak, the S&P has never made THE low until after the 2 year peaks. That means the October low isn't it. We also know that the market has never bottomed before the recession even began."

We're over a year into this bear market. The next low will be the low, and will be when bad news finally will become bad news. That's typically when you make the recession-based low. Dwyer will go for early cycle names at that time. Financials and economically-sensitive cyclical names.

"The soft landing scenario is not the best case scenario. We don't have to guess. We know exactly what's going to happen if you're in a soft landing. Inflation is going to remain elevated. The Fed is going to have to tighten. And the market, and risk is going to get hit."

"What we really need is to go into a recession to the point where the Fed will lower rates enough that it kickstarts a credit cycle. Not now when we're about to enter a potential negative cycle."

An unemployment rate of a half a percent for an average of 3 months above the low, you know you're in a recession. Ie if the US get's a 3.9% unemployment rate. Should be about to make a low. Creates an opportunity for a real, sustainable bull market. The problem is money, not just the thought of money. The money system is shut down.

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