US economy start of October
Wages going higher, lots of jobs offered (11m openings), savings still high, retail sales very strong, resurgence (V-shaped) in manufacturing which is barely below pre-pandemic.
General mills expects 7-8% inflation for fiscal 2022.
Investor confidence high. Yield curve steepening.
Preparing for tapering and rate increases.
Labor and supply chain issues have both worsened. No one knows when supply chain issues will be fixed. But they will eventually (after 2022?) be fixed, although wages are 70% of company costs, so it might be different there. Wages and rent.
The economy is very strong. Profits are high and growing. Profits get recycled into capital expenditure and hiring. The Fed is still acomodative.
It's considered likely the US will get infrastructure.
Manufacturers (like Ford) saying US needs to start making chips and minerals like cobalt locally. A local supply chain that's circular.
Consumer confidence is lowest since Feb.
Real yields are rising, which is typically a sign of real growth.