Tehran has all of a sudden lost its primary weapons sponsor and its primary Security Council sponsor - Zeihan

They'll start to think and act differently. (Zeihan still). They may negotiate differently.
 
He thinks Israel and Syria will have some firework competitions (because he thinks Biden has recently changed his stance from a former strong opposition to potential war there) and Syria will sue for peace.

He thinks the Poles, Latvians, Fins, etc will try to peel off Belarus out of R. orbit. He sees Lukashenko sued for war crimes for providing access to Russia into Ukraine.

Saudis (how much energy can be brought to market) will decide the government of Caracas through it's influence on the decisions of the US.