• Iran on the threshold gets more benefits and fewer costs, but if it crosses the threshold (a device and guidance) they get less benefits and higher costs - Alterman
     
    Completely unconstrained by agreements, without any inspectors, without any insight, maybe puts them in a dangerous place, where they're more liable to be surprised in a bad way. Versus continuing in unsatisfactory agreements you're constantly trying to improve, but with continuing dialog, insights, and tools to use.

  • Over the past weeks there have been big protests in Iran, and dozens of people have died




  • This time there was no little vial presented to Congress, so who knows what to make of this claim.

    Analysts say this time Iran wants to get an ironclad deal that the US can't back out of, and uranium stockpiles are leverage.

    Israel's new PM went to France to try to get Macron's help, but Macron wants dialogue, he stated publicly, and a new deal with Iran.

     
  • We need more capex spending, more pipelines built and more drilling, in order to transition properly to clean energy. The Fed can't change a supply problem (with hydrocarbons) no matter how it acts. It turns into much higher labor costs, energy costs, food.

    The US is begging SA to pump more while trying to remove the Iranian National Guard as terrorists, as well as the Houthi rebels.

    US is reducing restrictions on Venezuela (a 'known terrorist and funder of terrorism') at the same time as killing the Keystone Pipeline which would carry crude from the US's ally, partner and neighbor Canada to US refineries that can refine heavy crude.

    US politicians (Biden included, markedly) are vilifying Big Oil, threatening them (saying they would turn them off).

    Adding windfall taxes and things to energy is just saying we want prices a lot higher, Bass said, instead of getting behind them, as the highest energy producer in the world (way ahead of the second, Russia).

    In 7 years, the first nuclear energy will open in Wyoming.

    He thinks it's the golden age for private capitol investing in hydrocarbons for the next 10 or 15 years. Demand is inelastic and growing, and there's no alternative energy that could get there in time. There aren't enough minerals to put into the wind turbines and things.

     
  • Iran could teach Russia how to evade sanctions and 'money launder', according to an opinion piece in the WSJ (Dubowitz and Zweig)

    Of Tehran could serve as Russia's broker, taking a cut of the "illicit" trade it facilitates on Russia's behalf.

    Iran has a 'money laundering' architecture, a system they could make available to others.

    US/West kicked Iran of Swift, reduced their oil sales from 2.5b barrels to a few hundred thousand. So Iran has dealt with harsher sanctions than Russia (which still sells gas to Europe and has some institutions on Swift reportedly).


     

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  • US bombing in Iraq again

    ... without asking Congress, the Whitehouse bombed some targets (Kitab Hezbollah and Kitab Saeed Ashahada) on both sides of the Iraq-Syria border.

    The act may fall under jurisdiction that requires authorization under War Powers, but the White House didn't seek that from Congress.

    The DoD said they targeted Iran-backed militias who had used UAVs against US personnel and facilities in Iraq.

    Iraq's military condemned the act, saying it was a blatant violation of Iraqi sovereignty and national security.

    The popular mobilization forces are part of Iraq's security structure, so the US did bomb an ally, analysts say, although the US said those groups had attacked US targets first.

    Kitab Saeed Ashahada announced an open war again US targets in Iraq as a response.

    Biden's second use of military force.

     

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