• Trump's Testimony To New York AG's Fraud Probe Investigators - YouTube  

  • Gets around the H1 Visa.

    Even skilled tasks.

    Onshoring manufacturing (robotics, 3d printing, getting the price down to what it was in Asia), offshoring talent. Brazil, Poland (used to be Russia/Ukraine), India. They're not as productive (part is the method of having employees remotely), but price makes up for it. Metaverse.

    Will likely depress wages for white collar workers, some say.
  • Funny and Interesting Headlines

    Tanzanian President's Brutal Speech Explaining the Stupidity of Western Leaders - 2natcheki

  • Was age 6-17. Now they want most people to start at age 3 and make it uniform across the country. They've asked all schools to adopt this.

    "90% of development happens by age 8 or 9." They want people to be able to perform maths and other things better.

    "Play based learning school" added to the start of the same old period of schooling, it seems. Playing and learning, colors and shapes, alphabets and numbers. Not textbooks.

  • People have started to talk over the past few months about a sort of end of a cycle or period

    (Not everyone or even mainstream media, but non-mainstream culture-watching vloggers etc.)

    Two headlines randomly chosen:

    ‘Today’s UK is an unhappy, divided, authoritarian country’

    ''Kickback plot involving San Antonio doctors exposed'

    Canada also the government has not even needed to but has done unconstitutional things to citizens (freezing bank accounts during Trucker Protest most notable). People in the UK consider corruption in government normal. Doctors are not allowed by the State (California) to honestly treat their patients (Covid #PIC). Doctors as a profession if they're doing a lot of drug pushing scams and things it seems pretty extended.

    People have talked about the start of truth coming forward (because for the past decade or so at least there's been a strong trend away from saying true things, where there is so much firepower that can be used against people who say unpopular things (and what isn't unpopular with someone?).

    Teachers in top universities (Jordan Peterson) are being 'reeducated' and having their license threatened because of things they tweeted. Opinions and statements.

    High school teachers and nurses and doctors had to do vaccines or lose their jobs.

    The whole Island Party thing with the recent flight list published.

    People reacting against wokenss, metoo, etc. And more people expressing why.

    US political debates held at 4th grade level of language, I heard, whereas in 1900 it was 11th grade level. No interesting leaders in politics (maybe Desantis? who just today showed a massive lead in the Rs).
     
    Young people in large numbers (but tiny percentage, unnoticeable) buying non-smart phones for mental health.
  • 65% of US adults (166m(can that be right?)) had no money after paying bills in December

    March 2020 was the same number.

    Dec 2021 it was 9m.

    Visa's saying everyone's spending, though.

    High income people are also effected.
  • UK data, massive shift in vaccine risk / benefit analysis - YouTube 

  • The problem that can arise when populations allow governments to grant professional licenses, which serve the purpose traditionally of giving clients accountability from their professionals.
  • When the market pulls back again, where is the money going to come from

    One investor thinks it'll come more from Tech again, which he thinks still can't carry the weight of its overpricing.
  • "If the situation has got to that level, as doctors if we can't speak up for our patients when we think harm is being committed, the word 'doctor', the meaning of 'doctor', disappears - Dr Aseem Malhotra

    Talking about how in Cali if you speak against the dominant (enforced) narrative you automatically could get your license revoked.

  • The European market (and EMs) is a bull market, says Charles Schwab's Jeff Kleintop - YouTube 
  • It seems like many things are shifting back, approaching perhaps their median point. Wokeness, a certain type of feminism, immigration, globalism, government, medical integrity. Will it swing hard the other way now, causing moderates to have to switch to voicing Leftist concerns?

    China, Ukraine (sending weapons there including US and German tanks, it seems), NATO (Sweden, Finland, Turkey's issues), Afghanistan (last year),

    ?The 'perpetual state of emergency, AI tools (Dalle, SD, chatGPT), fakenews perhaps, hacking, crypto/blockchain, Big Tech antitrust, energy transition, MSM/bloggers,
     
  • Justin Trudeau leaving restaurant in Hamilton, Ontario & running the gauntlet of protesters - YouTube 
  • Global money saturates the globe's leading regulators - title in BMJ


    In UK 86% of the regulators' money comes from industry. US 65%. Canada 50% (so a lower amount maybe doesn't mean all that much).

     

  • Under age 50.
     
    "At the moment in my country you can take a perfectly healthy child in to see a professional healthcare advisor, healthcare practitioner, and they will inject a healthy 5-year-old child with a messenger ribonucleic acid vaccine. That is the current position in my country at the moment. I'm not allowed to disagree with this. I merely report it."
  • 2% is too low for the relative price changes you need while re-wiring global supply chains
     
    It's also not far enough away from 0.
  • What's your non-recoverable mistake? Not What are you going to do? How do you hedge against it?

    Most mistakes in investment are recoverable over time.
     
    Blind spot. These people simply don't understand structural uncertainty. When faced with something uncomfortable they ignore it, downplay it verbally.

    Reframers. Hear something, it's uncomfortable, and they reframe it.

    Active inertia (tends to be the most successful group). Say the same thing but louder rather than do something different.
  • We're going to see massively different outcomes for different companies and different sectors

    Unlike the past when there was no issue except liquidity and there was lots of liquidity. Strategy then was passive.
     
  • While we're going to a new economic environment destination, we have to think about both (the enjoyment or opposite) the journey and the destination. - El-Erian

    The destination can be so exciting the journey isn't worried about. Also, the journey can be so unpleasant it spoils the destination.
     
  • We have lots of zombie companies that are holding back productivity

    We are heading toward a destination where financial markets are less distorted.

    Growth models have risen in priority. Better treatment of our planet is mixed into this this time.
  • The big frustration of last year was there was nowhere to hide (not in bond market) - El-Erian

    As liquidity was withdrawn everything was sold off.
  • Reasons for economies slowing down, according to El-Erian

    China. Mishandling of exit from ZeroCovid, vaccination policy. And reorienting growth model (currently based on ever-closer globalization). China will be a drag.

    Europe. Dealing with energy supply disruptions. Inventory management has been improved. Structural headwinds. Growth will be slow.

    US. "Cleanest dirty shirt." Structurally it can grow, but could fall into recession if Fed pushes US to it. There was no common solution, unlike 2009. Regional problems means insularity.
     
  • Swiss mountain. Lighting diverted with laser (warms air making it more conductive)
  • Narrative has shifted to tightness in the labor market, some say

    More employers laying workers off. Having to pay more to get new workers to join.

    Inflation started in energy and food, then went to the goods sector, and is now in the services sector.
     
    Inflation was allowed to get embedded in the economy.

  • Going to reiterate something from when cameras were first put in glasses (and not long after discontinued, after some regular people assaulted people wearing these invasive devices because they didn't want to be filmed at the restaurant or whatever).

    These types of spy devices are in favor with antisocial types of people, who care more about their want to film anything they want to film, and are hated by people who are considerate of others and who believe in the 'right to be left alone'.
  • Switzerland Group To Provide Unvaccinated Blood Transfusions For The Unvaccinated - YouTube 

  • They had like 25% weekly inflation last week or something.


  • Pre-installed apps, restricted ability to remove apps, measures to ensure search is Google.
     
    Renewed hopes for Indian startups.
  • Immunology of mRNA vaccines - YouTube 


  • Is this what's called an 'attack piece'?
  • Recent downward guidance

    "Why wouldn't you guide down?" if everyone's facing the same headwinds.
  • 20 years China's become a trading partner.

  • Deepfake of Elon Musk high on drugs goes viral • FRANCE 24 English - YouTube 
  • Earnings can be down yet S&P goes up lots of years.

    It's because during a bad year, people sell off and prices are down (like last year let's say 20 or 30% down). Then the next year so much has been discounted that with a low earning report people can still be buying saying yeah that's fine that's discounted already. They're anticipating.

     
  • The yield curve inversion predictor of a recession (accurate for past 8 recessions since proposed by the guy in like 1986) may not be an indicator for the first time this time, the guy said.

    The Fed is now overcommunicating in advance so much it obviates the need to even look at a yield curve (when they're basically laying out what they're gonna do). Some say.

    Some say also that the absolute level of rates matters, and with interest rates at 0 what yield curve are you looking at?

    Also the model was linked to inflation-adjusted yields. Inflation expectations are inverted, ie traders see inflation easing over time.
  • Dividend stocks weren't favored over the past few years, but in an economic downturn and where things don't look certain, a company that has increased its dividend every year for 40 years has an effect on the investor.

    Even if it wasn't a good quarter.

    It also allows investors to measure.
     
    It's also probably not going to dive as a stock.
  • "[The WallStreet banks] all hire too many people when the going is good because they have to throw bodies at all the demand for M&A, lending, credit, trading, and then that doesn't last forever, and in a normal year they're culling underperformers, and in a complete wipeout year ..." Josh Brown on banks doing a lot of high volume firing
     
    It is highly pro-cyclical in the way it hires and fires.

  • 2040 for most of the world, 2070 for the Antarctic.

    1987 CFCs were banned by an international treaty. This could be done so easily because substitutes for CFCs were available (unlike CO2, the other thing people are focused on for the climate).

    Anecdote. In 2018 scientists detected a rise in CFCs, and they were traced to factories in China. Soon after, CFCs resumed their downward trend.
      
  • "Ultimately what you need is an aggressive cutting of interest rates that allows the yield curve to steepen sharply, which would then give investors the ability to look through that coming negative economic outlook or weaker earnings." - Tony Dwyer

    Worse economic news is what will let investors look through.

    Growth growing in 2023. 4.5% decline in S&P operating profits predicted.
     

  • Talk here about how Google Search is ripe to be disrupted, because the amount of ads and low quality of search, and how you have to 'game' it to get something like results by adding 'reddit' to your searchphrase.
  • Gold and precious metals likely to move higher, says Permanent Portfolio's Michael Cuggino - YouTube 
  • The Russian military claims its soldiers use of mobile phones led to the attack | DW News - YouTube 
  • Do we currently know how to map future demand?

    For past 10 years it seemed sort of like things were quite predictable.

  • Ukraine recently has been asking West for more arms supplies. Also saying Russia is now going to exhaust Ukraine with prolonged attacks.
  • On Twitter everyone is there to teach. They're all geniuses. On YouTube people put in a question, and they're there to learn.





  • Safety profile.

    Scientists still can't get data from governments, 2 years later, to even be able to do a real assessment.

  • Over half of customers had delays recently.

    With no delay compensation in the US yet, it's cheaper to give bad service and even cancel a flight than to operate it in certain situations. Eu has this already. Congress may act.


  • African countries aren't seeing Covid cases.

    WHO is still saying countries should aim for 70% vaccination rate.

    Why would we want to increase the vaccination rate in a country like Uganda, when they don't have a problem with it, Campbell asked.

     
  • "Is there a conspiracy theory about Twitter that DIDN'T turn out to be true." - Musk, on printing the Twitter Papers, and saying it was important to do so in order to have trust on the platform going forward.

    "So far they've all turned out to be true, and more true than people thought."

    Hunter Biden, government agencies.
     
    "And it couldn't just have been happening on Twitter, so what are we gonna do about all these other platforms." - Chamath

    Elon Musk on Fixing Twitter (Free Speech, Shadow Banning & Being CEO) - YouTube 

  • Sadness mixed with bitterness?

     
  • The ads bucketing issue

    Even YouTube shows scammy irrelevant ads, and if YouTube is having issues serving good ads Twitter will probably have some issues there. Musk
  • "I often hear people say they regret the time (2 hours) they spent on TikTok." - Musk

    "What we want to optimize for is unregretted true human user minutes. ... and with advertising, you want advertising that is as close to content as you can ... what you want, when you want it."

  • No one buys anything from Twitter, but lots buy from Insta. Why?

    Twitter was algo-coded to maximize impressions, which maximizes irrelevance (said Musk). Because if you click on an ad you lose 40% of your impressions total.

    "An ad that is highly relevant is content. An ad that is irrelevant is spam"

    "As relevant to people's needs as possible."

    Is this what it's like for Tech CEOs to work with code developers? Is it just because in this industry the skilled workers are younger than in other industries? Is this a stage in the industry where next year's top wanted developers learn how to work with their director?

    Or is there a question about how can you get tech coder workers to become workers who can work with other people? (if they just work alone all the time, have super high demand and so don't need to adjust themselves to their companies, and have high salaries)

     

  • Days after US Congress made headlines for being set to ban TikTok on government devices.

     
  • Existing home sales down for 10 months now in US

    2.5 weeks average salary per month to pay mortgage. Monthly house payment up about $700 in 12 months.

    Analysts it will take a couple years before the housing market improves (wages increase, mortgage rate down, house prices more affordable). 5% mortgage is where some see things becoming more normal (currently 7%, 7.5% considered to have been the peak).


     
  • Millionaires own 90% of individually held stocks, and 55% think the S&P will go down around 10% next year

    A third think 15% or more.


  • Science?

    The data it's based on can't be access by us, it's not public domain data. So it can't be peer reviewed, Campbell says.

     

  • Japan launches first commercial moon lander; NASA's lunar flashlight onboard as well | WION - YouTube 

  • "Demographic hunting business." "Politically homogeneous" is "fundamentally untrustworthy." 90% on NYT readers vote one way. Fox and MSNBC it's close to 100% one way.

    "You should be able to reproduce news stories" like in science, but with anonymous sources this isn't possible.
     
    Not really ashamed of error.

  • This week the German government announced they'd arrested like 1000 people in a plot to overthrow their government and install a different leader.
  • Public interviews have given Sam Bankman-Fried an opportunity to set up a defense, says professor - YouTube 
  • Why the Crypto crash hasn't spread to other markets

    Also a reason collapse can happen so quickly.

    Few traditional finance sources (few banks have come in with credit limits and bonds) played with them. "Due to federal bank regulators continued emphasis on safety and soundness in consumer protection."

     

  • FTC will likely sue to block Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard, says Aaron Glick - YouTube 

  • I think this is just about carried cash, not all 'wealth' as they titled it, but I haven't watched the full vid yet. However, you could make the point that cash seized from a home is another category.
     

  • Over the past weeks, investor analysis have commented on how Apple as a corporation is the most exposed to China, China supply chains, China markets, of the tech companies.

    Zeihan I think noted Apple is like 6 or 8 years away from a restructured supply chain etc, if they were to do that.
     

  • "In England and Wales, 1 in 4 people is not English or Welsh."

    One of the reasons this happens, not just in the UK, is that the government doesn't publish (or used and then stopped) demographics data for these things it doesn't want to talk about, giving people no information to deal with, or they obfuscate the information by mixing classes of people to make the information not usable in such a discussion.

     
  • "Elon Musk's challenge will be to find the right advertisers for Twitter" - a headline I saw
  • Apple is by far the slowest to join the accelerating exodus out of the Chinese system (which began in the last year of Obama), said Zeihan

    "... taken every instance of trade disputes or genocide and doubled down... "

     
  • Is Xi the strongest cult of personality in history, as Zeihan says?
     
    "It's impossible for people to bring him information now, because they don't know what he'll do."

    "So he's just drinking Cool-Aid."


  • Example of how China is not an easy country to govern

    List of current issues between China and Australia: swimmers, drugs, Crown Casino, Papau New Guinea, Huawei, Pacific Stepup, Solomon Islands, Gladdis Leo, South China Sea, general issues of interference, Australians relations with the US, trade, coal, barley, marine endowment, Hong Kong, protests at the University of Queensland, Chinese Australian writer Mr Yang in prison, Uigers.

    The current government also, it has been said, alienated many rich Chinese with the corruption scandal, and tech people with how they handled tech over the past couple years.

  • Example of how censorship is an expensive staple of government? Also an example of once a small minority speaks up, the 75% or whatever who are choosing left when they know it's right are less fearful to chose right?


  • It's still platformed on Rumble.


    Greenwald said Musk's definition is NOT the standard he is now using on Twitter.



    He's banning things that could not be interpreted as illegal. He's banning things that someone (many people or himself personally) find repugnant.

    A week later, headlines criticized Musk because he suspended accounts of journalists who had been tweeting the location of his private jet or something. He responded, 'You're not special because your a journalist. You dox you get suspended.'
     
  • It's illegal under EU law to platform RT, Greenwald said
  • Silicon Valley has laid of like 100k people in the past 2 months

    Smaller tech companies maybe will have an easier time finding workers, since large tech used to be funded with cheap money and their stock price was at a high multiple, unlike now.

    Why has there been so few alternatives to the handful of big tech companies everyone uses but in general doesn't want to use?

    Small Business Administration funds small companies. Below market capital costs. For the first time, the labor is actually there to do so, noted Zeihan.
     
  • How universities seem (super Liberal) don't actually reflect how the students are


    "Free Speech and Constructive Dialogue at UNC-CH," 2020 - a recommended study, said Rauch

    Many students want more conservative speakers.

    In US society, actually only 8% are 'Progressive Activists'. So a minority is having a strong effect.

  • Some popular (but not necessarily new) things contributing to suppression of truth/opinion - Rauch

    Subjectivism - My lived experience must be true

    Words that Wound - Hurtful words are violence, so they must be regulated, UN human rights violation

    Identity politics - Marginalized groups get special say
     
  • The drop in confidence in universities which accompanies the lack of ability to voice true opinions (when they dissent)

    A 12 point drop recently ("unprecedented").

    Homogeneity among faculty increasing.


    Especially in certain fields. 50 to 1 progressives to conservatives. If 1 in 4 members of a faculty are conservative, a student will encounter at least one. But at 40 to 1 students may never encounter a peer who supports other positions.

     

    Big schools.


    Many openly admit discriminating against the bids for grants of right-leaning grants. They openly admit it, they're proud of it. The others who don't admit it would increase the percentage. Faculty who are right leaning report feeling the climate is hostile, 70% of them. Centrists 35%. Left less than 5%.


  • Students at US universities belief their school climate (people will be offended) prevents people from saying things they believe, on the rise


    Not just universities. General population.


    Happened in the 60s, Rauch says. People are chilled because they're concerned about the consequences of people and what they say.

    Americans self sensor now much more than during McCarthy era. Rauch says maybe because during McCarthy you could say you were against communism and you would pretty much be OK, whereas today you don't even know what things will give offense. No boundaries, no safe harbors.


    Note the sense of futility, of demoralized population. They will instead just sit at home.


  • There are only two majors that translate into reasonably well-paying jobs outside of universities: computer science and petroleum engineering - Thiel

  • How far down the Mussolini State road have we gone as a society?

    "It's a dangerous question [somewhat jokingly said]. ... It's way further than I would like. On the other hand we have conferences like this [Stanford Academic Freedom], we can talk about things. A lot of things we get in trouble for but we can still talk about them in small groups, anonymously. There are parts of the internet that have been taken over by the State but the internet still is in some ways more free than it was 20 years ago. ... There's an uncomfortable entanglement that the US has with China, where we're rivals but the danger is always, 'You have to chose your enemies well because you'll soon be just like them,' and are we going to copy the same sort of surveillance totalitarian AI that China has and impose that in the US?" - Peter Thiel
  • Many people are uncomfortable with mRNA vaccines because they're only a step away, they're adjacent, from something that was going on on the Wuhan labs called Gain of Function research, which is basically biowarfare - Peter Thiel


    All technologies, drab dystopian future, building the machines that will destroy the future.

    AGI research people used to work hard on it, and say we have to find a way for it to coexist with us, but by 2015, Thiel said, it had devolved into people not really working on it very hard and people quite pessimistic about it's potential. From transhumanist to luddite. A superhuman AGI you would never know what its real intentions were. There was a problem, they avoided it for 20 years, and one day they woke up and the best thing they can do is hand out Cool-Aid, ala People's Temple, to everybody.

    Another solution is a One World Totalitarian State.

     

  • Veil for women is the main focus, and what women can say. (Also anything that is Islamic/Sharia) like alcohol, mingling or men and women.

    Morality police really formed in early 1990s.

    Iranians also have been using apps to notify each other where the checkpoints are set up where they check for moral clothing use.

    Iranian protests (began in September, several hundred have died so far in multiple protest events) are still making headlines.

    Other countries have similar things. "Any country where you have strict codes of behavior enforced ... [Saudi Arabia although it has eased restrictions for women over recent years], Sudan, Malaysia. Enforcing public order sometimes.

     


  • A post with a swastika inside a star of David.

    Don't know how long. There's no bans, only suspensions.



     
  • Indonesia set to penalize sex outside marriage, reportedly
  • Gravitas: The indirect impact of COVID - YouTube 
  • Russians believe that Ukraine and Ukrainian-ness isn't real or is created artificially and should be wiped out - Jeffrey Mankoff

    Many Ukrainians believe they don't belong at all to this Russian thing, that they have their own culture.
     
  • Stable coin scams

    If they say the value is pegged to the dollar, and they don't have the capacity to keep that value there.

    They also 'defeat the whole purpose of crypto currencies', Yanis said.
     
  • Bitcoin so far has never been macroeconomically significant - Yanis

    Central banks can create tens of trillions of dollars. The crypto market cannot destabilize that.

    Capitalism is unstable by itself.
     
  • Imagine how much worse the pandemic would have been if we had a fixed supply of money - Varoufakis

    ... Which couldn't just be expanded rapidly by the Fed in response to economic upturns and downturns.

    An apolitical supply of money, like gold.

    It's not that governments have political authority and power to do things, but how they use it, for him. Non-democratic. Any concentration of power which is unequal and not answerable to the people. And also the central power of Google, Facebook, private sources of concentrated power.

    "Decentralizing money like Bitcoin simply creates bitcoin oligarchs. It is not a safe route to democratizing money." Just replacing fiat oligopolies with bitcoin oligopolies.
     
  • The US had a big surge in demand for goods in 2020, 2021, now it's starting to come back to trend.

    Can this prop up an economy?
  • Iran on the threshold gets more benefits and fewer costs, but if it crosses the threshold (a device and guidance) they get less benefits and higher costs - Alterman
     
    Completely unconstrained by agreements, without any inspectors, without any insight, maybe puts them in a dangerous place, where they're more liable to be surprised in a bad way. Versus continuing in unsatisfactory agreements you're constantly trying to improve, but with continuing dialog, insights, and tools to use.

  • You look around, you don't see a lot of positive examples of uprisings that turned out well (in the Middle East) - Alterman

    Because political elements (not just rights, which are inclusive)? Because authoritarian response? Because law on how to arm and how to enable security forces?

     
  • Politics are becoming a politics of grievance - Jon Alterman

    And how can you have a healthy society built on that?

    A constant rallying point, US, Israel, Middle East. Partially driven by social media and by PEOPLE'S ABILITY TO CHOSE individually what they like (they chose what gives them an emotional response).
    "It's strange that the places we see it most effective (the move away from politics of grievance) is authoritarian states that try not to have politics.

    #government
     
  • 18-29 year olds number one issue they care about is having rights taken away from them

    Harvard University Youth Poll
  • Has there been a rising tide of intolerance in the Middle East over the past 50 years?

    Used to be a more tolerant place?

    Homosexuality. People who feel highly threatened by tolerance.
     
  • Qatar did a lot to ensure Temporary Worker Immigrants visas weren't tied to a specific employer (which led to abuses like if you don't do this you're fired and you'll be shipped out of the country)
     
    Where is the line between bargains and exploitation?

    Do they have safety? Food? Shelter?

    What is the direction of the progress? How much further is there to go? Who will care about this specific question in 2 or 3 years?

    The Truth of the Matter: World Cup Geopolitics - YouTube 
  • Handbags, among least volatile (2-5% fluctuation) asset class, proven to be good hedges against inflation.

    Hermes, Burkin, Kelly, and some Chanel. Rare, mint, specific colors. A high price for a handbag is like $100k - $300 generally.

     
  • Cash levels are still high. People are holding cash.

    Bullish? S&P is down but maybe we're through the downtrend. And people are waiting with cash (part of which they took out of the market recently).
     
  • Temporary sweet spot with inflation - Dwyer

    With the lowering of goods inflation (they are coming down) you're getting al lift in the services inflation.

    Powell said he doesn't expect housing or housing-related services to start dropping until next year.

    So you're in a temporary sweet spot where you've slowed it enough to keep the goods side down but the services is going to keep it up above where they want it.
     
  • $100 or 300t problem, potentially the biggest ... that the price of money is centrally planned - Dylan LeClair

    50 years into global fiat currency experiment. Reaching a point where global debt burdens are so bloated that the only way out is monetary debasement.

     
  • 'A bursting of the everything bubble'