• Over the past weeks there have been big protests in Iran, and dozens of people have died


  • Housing: There’s a ‘huge in-migration’ into ‘lower-cost areas,’ analyst says - YouTube 
  • Tom Lee appeared to show signs of flagging his optimism in most recent CNBC interview.

    First time I've seen that.
  • Long Term Investors Can Start Buying in This Market

    some say
  • 60/40 portfolio is good now, for the first time in 11 years

    1-year bonds yield 4%.
     
  • Third part collections are very low

    Probably the leading edge for an indicator of recession (jobless claims would be one of the last) - Josh Brown

     
  • Cross-messaging

    Fedex and Walmart warning. Meanwhile, Ralph Lauren and VISA saying they aren't seeing ANY sign of stress.
     
  • Known brands did well in 2020-2021

    Draft Kings, Telsa, Peloton. New investors with RobinHood accounts knew what these companies were and bought their fav companies. Apple.

     
  • Josh Brown and Michael Batnick had an investors conference (like 1000 investors and a group total of a couple thou)

    Number 1 thing people concerned about is housing. Almost 1/5 of the economy, when you consider building etc, banks etc. It's nothing like 2008 though (everything from creditworthiness to supply/demand looks stronger).

    2 years ago housing became the national pastime.

    Bid/ask spread now is massive, and the number of homes sold in big cities are down like 40 - 60%. Sellers (who bought a year or two ago during the bubble) are anchored to a price that's not real anymore. However, the selling prices are still up like 20%.

    There are 80m homeowners in the US. 5m people are looking for a house. Although the current owners of houses have overwhelmingly good credit, new buyers (rates recently doubled for the first time ever) are maybe shut out of buying a home. So what does that mean if no one can buy a home now (although those who already have them are doing fine)? The number 1 step in building credit for Americans is buying a house.

    Renters are seeing 20% increases. Potential for a competing-against-landlords (who have all cash or Wall Street financing) situation. This is different from 2008 also. Institutional buyers (like Blackrock) operate in certain cities a lot, so if they're in that city you could be priced out.
     
  • Health uber alles - Dennis Prager

    "In the name of health, you can do ANYTHING. Anything. You can lie, you can suppress, you can be cruel, you can distort, you can get rid of doctors who dissent, in the name of health."

     
  • Has been through two economic drawdowns, has a dividend, and buys back stock, quality management, discount to market valuation - the things Leon Cooperman looks for in current stock market
     
  • [ML News] Stable Diffusion Takes Over! (Open Source AI Art) - YouTube 
  • Trump's ideas are now sort of the orthodoxy - Victor Davis Hanson

    "He could say, I gave you this agenda. That everybody seems to agree that we have to restore the industrial capacity of America. We've gotta be tough on China. We've gotta have a border that's secure. We have to have a different foreign policy. We have to have responsible monetary policy. We've gotta pump oil and gas. And people were not talking about it like I was. And now we're all on the same page."

    Versus the Left's 'Lassaz-faire creative destruction 'They should have learned code' (Left turned on its base who didn't succeed like they had) we need cheap labor from other countries for corporate America so we need an open border.' They substituted White for class. Not just black people, but everybody has grievances (even rich ones) against Whites.

    Hanson says Trump has to not dwell on himself though, if he wants to be current. Or that he could step aside, allowing his ideas to continue for the party but with someone who won't incite the NeverTrumpers. More easy to focus on the issues.

    The Left has the money, the influence, the reach, in this new globalized economy. The Right has the middle classes.

    A Versailles Left that dresses up and plays like peasants, moralistic. A Jacobin Left that doesn't believe people are able to make better decisions than they as government can for everyone. A Maoist Left.
     

  • A grocery store (or other private property) can be forced to host speech, according to common law.

    SM platforms are different from newspapers because what is published in a newspaper is so because the newspaper made a choice to publish it. It is the newspaper's speech.

    SM platforms are primarily conduits.

    Parades make choices about who goes in them. This is their first amendment right, so they can discriminate against gays. They can't be forced to make a choice, akin to a newspaper. The parade organizer is more like a newspaper.

    Schools can be forced to host military parades, although they can of course speak out against them.

    SM have no space considerations. Forcing a newspaper or tv station to publish something means they can't publish something else which means they lose money on that space, and curtails the owners ability to speak in its own form.

    The SC has been very clear on protecting from forced affiliation claims. Plus SM platforms can actively say what they want against opinions. Coerced endorsement.

    For newspapers or TV or parades, do editorial decisions occur after the speech has occurred or before? After? That is not what an editor does.

    SM platforms have constantly said they aren't the speaker. That it isn't their speech. (Section 230.)

    Publishers make a decision to repeat something someone else said. Now they're saying it too. Now you're a publisher.

    Common Carrier doctrine dates back before US founding, in common law. It vests states with the power to impose nondiscrimination obligations on communication and transportation providers who hold themselves to serve all members of the public without individualized bargaining. (Telegraph invented in 1830 was the first communications service subjected to Common Carrier at the end of the 19th C. Legislators were concerned private entities that controlled this new tech would use their power to manipulate the flow of info to the public when it served their economic or political self-interest. Western Union (the largest) sometimes refused to carry messages from journalists that competed with its ally AP. The first law required them to receive dispatches to and from any individual on the payment of their usual charges to transmit them with impartiality and good faith. And to transmit them in the order they were received.

    Phone companies are privileged by law to filter obscene or harassing expression. Spam calling. And they often do. So phone companies aren't quite required to accept all transmissions.
    Public transport companies can kick people off their vehicles. They're forced to accept everybody but can be forced to revoke that.

    SM is the dominant means of communication (although not exclusive).

    Commerce, friendship, family, speech, persuasion, picketing, pamphleting, concerts, protests. There a public interest in the social media communication.
     
  • People have been saying the Fed has an integrity problem now

    15 months ago they said the rate in mid-2023 would be zero. Now they're saying 4%. Larry Summers says he wouldn't be surprised if it was higher than that.

  • Chips, selling tech to one country or the other, not both. Questions about low-quality tech.

    China, Zeihan says, is making things uncomfortable for Putin, making him play a subservient or belittled role. We can guess what this means for their ideas about Taiwan.

    US, Zeihan says, is demonstrating strength when it comes to actuallySerious issues of national security, even if they have been seen as weak in less vital issues over the past while.
     
  • Shopping Centers

    After all the (dubious, a few would say) talk that after the pandemic shopping was going to be completely changed (paradigm) and no one would go to stores anymore, some have noted that it was that very pandemic that showed that retail shops had their place.

    Unable to buy needed items online due to shortages, people went to local stores, particularly shopping centers. Also because they felt they needed to get out of the house. Curbside pickup developed, so going into stores was not necessary. Stores looked again at investing in their trucking. Companies have focused on eCom for 15 years and are now looking again at their store fleets. (Pricing power to landlords, resulting in higher earnings and dividends for them.) Stores realized the bulk of their sales still come from traditional shopping centers or malls.

    Also, many people moved out of the city. A trend towards living in homes. In those areas, the main shopping destination is large shopping centers, malls. Going to shopping centers was like the only 'acceptable' place to go during lockdown.

    The US is over-retailed. The big shopping centers consolidate their power, while some malls do flag.

     
  • Things no one is heard guessing:

    - What a conclusion in Ukraine might look like
    - If Putin remains in power if Russia loses
    - Under what circumstances might sanctions against Russia be lifted
  • EU has stocked up their energy reserves to 82%, already above their target of 80% for October

    Confidence in EU growing they can go through winter without severe economic problems or rationing.

    Russia selling its energy to China and India, but at a greater-than-ever discount. R getting a weaker trade position due to lack of potential trading partners.

     
  • Russian economy holding up versus sanctions et al better than many expected

    Although doing worse than Europeans who are suffering from the sanctions imposed on Russia as well.

    R. central bank moved quickly to impose capital controls and sharply hike interest rates (20%, incentivizing Russians to keep their money in Russian banks) partially stabilized the ruble. Higher oil prices offset the Russia discount. Rising sales of energy to China, India and Turkey offset decline in sales to Europe. (Oil revenues estimated down 20%). The central bank forced companies to convert 80% of the money they earn overseas into rubles. Demand for R. currency helps prop it up. R citizens were prevented from converting more than $10k into other currencies.

    = high interest rate, forced buying of the ruble, and currency near impossible to sell.

    = we don't know the true exchange rate. Ruble can only really be BOUGHT in significant quantity.

    = ruble appears high in value, but few would buy it, some say, unless they were forced to.
  • Uber Has Been Hacked - YouTube 

    Access to all sensitive info
  • Lots of active managers are telling their clients 'Just buy and hold, don't look at your statements in the short term. You have to invest long term. And investing when the market is low is better than when it is high when you're doing long-term investing.' Their sentiment, however, is largely that the market will continue to bear in the nearterm (couple months, midterms, etc).
  • Fed will be done with hiking early next year - Tom Lee

    Because inflation has peaked, and will go from 8% today to 4% early next year to 2.5% later next year, according to the bond market, Lee said.

    That's not changed by the discouragingly high CPI report we just saw. Maybe the level of the hikes will change but not the timeline.

    "When we see markets convinced (2 decade high) inflation is broken, PE is going to go up dramatically." (Maybe this will be seen even in the October CPI).

    Recency bias accounts for the prevailing bearishness.

    With Fedex, taking down expectations might be true for some smaller beta, but PE is going to change dramatically when inflation risk is taken out of equity risk premium, Lee said.
  • The US is big enough that it will leverage the rest of the world down - Rick Santelli

    Eurozone CPI inflation up 9%. Pound at lowest level since 1985. 

    Developing global recession. For US, maybe a rolling recession (different parts get recession at  different times).
  • Tehran has all of a sudden lost its primary weapons sponsor and its primary Security Council sponsor - Zeihan

    They'll start to think and act differently. (Zeihan still). They may negotiate differently.
     
    He thinks Israel and Syria will have some firework competitions (because he thinks Biden has recently changed his stance from a former strong opposition to potential war there) and Syria will sue for peace.

    He thinks the Poles, Latvians, Fins, etc will try to peel off Belarus out of R. orbit. He sees Lukashenko sued for war crimes for providing access to Russia into Ukraine.

    Saudis (how much energy can be brought to market) will decide the government of Caracas through it's influence on the decisions of the US.
  • In 5 years the US will be in a better position than it is now, with a better supply chain - Zeihan
     
    East Asia primary source on income is manufacturing.
  • "Everything Trump said he was going to do Biden is now turning into policy (regarding China)" - Zeihan

  • Breivik attacks were 2011. 11 years ago.

  • During uncertain and changing times, differentiation stands out more - Bill Ready
     
    Pinterest has actual people curating.
  • Incentivized to invest in automation, with labor rates rising
  • Chequeing deposits 4x pre-pandemic. Lots of surface liquidity. But demand is struggling (housing, everyone is just buying groceries not electronics or clothes) - Paul Christopher
  • "There's no way globalization breaks for the Chinese in a positive way." - Zeihan
  • A couple destroyers in the Indian Ocean basin would be enough to end China's energy imports.

    (Because China's warships can only do 400 miles under combat situations.)

  • "China is probably the biggest loser in the Ukraine war after Ukraine itself." - Zeihan

    "Because they're the last country in the kick line, everyone else gets their stuff first." (Energy, Food from the Russian space)


  • Send me photos and location data, please honey.
     


  • Lots of 11, 12, 13 year olds.

    Others say the manufacturers made cars that are too easy to steal.

  • Nvidia, AMD stocks fall on U.S. orders to cease all sales of key AI chips to China - YouTube 
  • AI Generated Artwork Takes First Place in Art Contest - YouTube 

  • Texas sends more than 9,000 migrants to NYC and DC - YouTube 

  • Recession signs?

    'Lost my job, can't pay rent' Google search term up 500% (in how much time?

    MLB down compared with 2019 (but was going down before the pandemic). How much is a postpandemic fear of crowds?

    Generic instead of brands up like 20 or 30% maybe.

    Mens' underwear sales (no data yet, just a sign they're watching).
     
  • Mystery deepens over Al-Qaeda chief Ayman Al-Zawahiri's death | International News | WION - YouTube 
  • Team of archaeologists come across exciting discovery, site indicates home of St. Peter - YouTube 
  • Dr. Fauci announces he's stepping down - YouTube 
  • Tech Talk: Popular apps capable of collecting private information on iPhones | WION - YouTube 

  • Gravitas: China's largest river Yangtze has dried up - YouTube 
  • NSO co-founder and CEO Shalev Hulio steps down; group facing legal action | WION - YouTube 

  • Idiocy reversed?
     
  • Mexico arrests former top prosecutor over 2014 missing students case • FRANCE 24 English - YouTube 

  • Russian 'Stars Coffee' to replace Starbucks

    With a brand design basically a Starbucks ripoff.

    Why would they not take this opportunity to create a global brand competitor?
  • All midterm years result in higher market between October's election day and June - Joe Teranova
  • Over 3 million barrels of oil will be lost by November, says Husseini Energy's Sadad Al Husseini - YouTube 
  • Tech Talk: The recent blocking of the VLC Media player | International News | WION - YouTube 
  • Sept 6 will be the day many workers are expected back at the office (or not)

    Those who may not be expected back: Those with children or family needs as reasons to be at home, coders and journalists and workers who do better in a quiet environment, and people who were hired remotely and don't live in the same place as the business and never did.

    "They can't take your desk away from you if you're sitting at it," was an expression in the 80s when people didn't want to lose their jobs. Workers have had a lot of power recently in the relationship, but that may shift now (many are talking about it doing so).

    Some Millenials and GenZers, who have lived their lives online and virtually (and therefore are considered best suited to not want to go to the office) are saying they want to go to the office to show their employers what they can do. Those who were hired remotely have never had the opportunity to meet their managers and coworkers physically. "When is someone gonna tag me so I can actually fight for the team?"

    Some say to move up you need to be there in person. Who promotes someone they've never met? Who puts someone in charge who's never interacted with people? How do you share experience with upcoming members? Why should you offer fulltime work to someone who's not there physically, instead of just contract or part time?
  • Gravitas: China's Sichuan shuts all factories to save electricity - YouTube 

  • 60 years. Only certain types of business.
     
  • Agriculture is the sector facing the most threat over the next 10 to 20 years and it will result in multi-continental famines (between the Ukraine war and the breakdown of fertilizer supply chains) -Zeihan

    When we globalized, everyone learned to specialize. It was all about the extra value added. And we didn't really worry about having to grow sufficient food for our own plates, so we got into better things. We moved into manufacturing and services. We moved into the city. Agriculture moved from the center of everyone's lives to the edge. It became reliable the more secure and safe globalization became. That's working in reverse now. Countries have to grow their own food (now dependent on and on land only useful with fertilizers), and that means the volume produced is going to go down.

     
  • "Beijing has been quite stunned at the extent of the cooperation between Europe and America on sanctions against America. The calculation ... before the invasion was that Europe and America would be divided, and America would slap a few sanctions on but it wouldn't really be game-changing ..." - John Lee (Hudson Inst)

    "The Chinese now realize that if there's any kind of war, for example over Taiwan, the high likelihood is that the Americans would get global cooperation to start imposing extremely harsh particularly financial sanctions on the Chinese, and that would devastate the Chinese economy"

    Only the Americans tend to do war well over more than one of the 4 domains (land sea air cyber). China and Russia have high impressive numbers in military costs and equipment but haven't really invested that much in logistics and organization and coordination across domains. So its great for them to have all these weapons but if they can't actually use them in a coordinated way ...

    Unlike Russia, China still seeks to be known as a legitimate or respected leader. You can't do that just by material power alone. It would have to get other country's to accept its ownership over Taiwan for that, it couldn't just start bombing Taiwan. So the Chinese are now thinking How do we do that?

    The Covid19 pandemic began a process of diversification away from China. And factoring in the real political risk of being so reliant on China.
     
    Russia is a massive surplus producer and exporter of food stuffs and energy. China is the world's largest importer of all of that, especially for the imports necessary to grow food. The sanctions placed on Russia if placed on China would lead to a de-industrialization of the entire Chinese system in under a year, according to Ziehan.

    Boycotts. Shareholders, consumers can take a stand to change corporate policy. That's a surprise to China, according to Zeihan.


  • 3 choke points: Straight of Hormuz, Straight of Malacca, Singapore Straight.

  • Alcohol contribution to Japan's revenue in 1980 was 5%. Now it's 1.7%.
     
    Work-from-home has exacerbated the non-drinking.
  • Two judges ordered to pay $200M to victims of 'kids for cash' scheme - YouTube 
  • The 10-year is at 2.8. "That's hardly where it was in the 80s. The 10-year should properly reflect inflation expectations and at 2.8 it's really a market that thinks inflation gets back towards 2% after a couple years." - Tom Lee

    "And then people talk about the inverted yield curve between 10-year and 2-year. But what they have to keep in mind is that if inflation for the next few years is at 4, the 2-year HAS to be higher than the 10. So you're gonna get a forced inversion just because the contours of inflation and it doesn't mean that the curve on a real basis inverted. So I think the bond market is telling us a better story than the equity investors wanna believe."


  • "Last 9 months investors have been convinced inflation will be with us for years, and it's very sticky, but it's proven to be a lot less sticky, and maybe even more sensitive to gasoline falling, because of how gasoline moves through the services CPI.

    "And if that's correct, we are tracking more towards a soft landing ... and that would mean that markets have already discounted much of the Fed tightening."

    Tom Lee
     
  • Peak leverage in labor market, voiced

    5% down to 10m open jobs in June.
    Pulling back as they have less success in hiring, and they're reassessing how they operate their business. But still frothy labor market.
     
    The employers doing well are recruiting talent rather than posting job openings.
  • US housing starts fell 10% in July
  • Shipping costs may be peaking (but costs coming down really a 2023 event)

    Labor costs still up.
  • Crowding out effect - Scott Mushkin

    LA food prices up 25% in past 18 months.

    Not a lot of money left over.

    Some people 'being impoverished.'
     
    What will the holiday look like?
  • Lots of inventory overhang right now

    Apparel, barbecues, etc.
  • Three stages of a bear market - Bookvar

    1. Valuation adjustment (we've seen this).

    2. Economic impact and earnings impact of a slowdown (we're beginning the first phase of this), particularly profit margins.

    3. Everyone throws in the towel.

    He expects 50 basis points and then 25s.

     
  • The tightness of the labor is more than the Fed expected, so it will have to generate a slowdown long enough to push the unemployment rate up well above 4% - William Dudley

    The current wage trend is 4 or 5%, which is not consistent with 2% inflation, because inflation is high and labor market is tight. Ratio of unfilled jobs to workers is 1.8 to 1.

    The Fed says it wants 2% inflation, but he thinks they actually want 3%.
     
  • Growth will be difficult for China, says Yale's Stephen Roach - YouTube 
  • Sri Lanka allows Chinese vessel to dock, Washington and Delhi raise a concern | World English News - YouTube 
  • iPhone 14 to be manufactured in India (as well as China): Reports | Latest World News | WION - YouTube  
  • Americans are using credit card points to but food now (in past 2 years they would save them and use them for something bit like a dish washer). Credit card spending overall has now eclipsed pre-pandemic. Consumers have not had to use credit for a couple years, but now they are ok because they have credit.

    Gas prices have dropped a lot, and so have borrowing rates. Re-fis are back.

  • "Someone who could bring together various factions of the Taliban and make sure they were following the same line."

    "The Taliban have been saying that their biggest achievement so far in the country is they've been able to provide security to the people of Afghanistan, and attacks like this ... are meant to taint that."

    No one has claimed it. Similar attacks in the past have been claimed by Isil.

     
  • AI, internet-based business models, Net Zero, emerging market consumer, and top brands (last one a sort of moat play)

    Scott Chronert's 'Thematic Thirty' stocks as, he says, we shift out of markets being driven by inflation, recession, and Fed concerns, and into more stock (pick) -based investing.

    More of a longer-term structural growth bias, which is their means of negotiating this onoging Fed-on-Fed-off economic-recession-or-not situation. A path to look across an economic valley to the other side.

    Because the market almost at their target for S&P, investing needs to shift away from an index focus around traditional macro variables to a much more bottom-up focus.

    The first half of the year, the major multiple compression on the initial inflection and rates was on the growth side of the market, 'which is gonna align with a lot of the themes' he's talking about.

    The rate effect of multiples has been mostly priced in. June low.

    They follow 99 themes. But there are a lot of companies in the S&P that don't follow this thematic approach.

     

  • Carried Interest loophole, legislation closes it (we'll see)

    In the top tax bracket, instead of paying 43% they're paying 23%, as if income was investment income, some.

    Money changing hands for legislation, seen in action, according to Josh Brown.

    Sinema of Arizona.


  • Eyesbrows raised for: lots going to IRS, so they can do more active work perhaps, lots of government oversight of drug companies, emphasis on climate initiatives when other issues seem to some people more pressing.

    $740b, so taxes will be raising, it's been said, during a time when Americans might not want taxes raised.
     

  • $92b market for inexpensive ($150 usd) cell phones.

     
  • FBI Searches Trump's Home in Unprecedented Move - YouTube

     

  • Biden signed a 'China competition bill' Chips Act, to 'boost US chipmakers'

    Haven't looked yet what else is in this bill.

  • Drought threatens major (shipping) rivers in Europe, DW reported

    #Europe
  • China has been carrying out military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan carried some out today.
  • "The relationships between all of the tools that we use to regulate the economy (inflation measures, growth, interest rates) and the economy might not apply anymore." - Peter Zeihan (but this echoes in vein things I've heard from other over the past year or two

    "For the past 500 years it's been all about figuring out how to maximize your share of a pie that is steadily growing. ... As long as there is more technology and more people growth is easy, and regulating growth in such a situation is something that we have a lot of experience in, but that's not the case anymore."


  • Another example of how things go along (although philosophically opposed by many) until there's an actual contention, and then true colors are displayed.

     

  • Kissinger, Nixon, anyone?

     
  • Pelosi went to Taiwan

    After a week or two of headline news about her possibly going/possibly not/China not wanting her to. US headlines only I read, so I can't say what China's real position was.

  • In Kabul


     


  • First use of term 'climate criminals' for celebs I've heard.
     
  • Zelinsky poses for Vogue


     
  • Russia might leave the ISS, it's being reported

  • Rustdesk an 'opensource' (not really) Teamviewer / Anydesk alternative

    It has closed source parts in the software though, so some have already started to say it's not really.

     
  • "There is no longer a secular growth story that works without a cyclical for the global advertising business." - Josh Brown

    Apple and Google down since Snap's weak quarterly report. They're so big now that anything in the overall economy affects them, is the idea. They're now seen more as a proxy for the overall macro, is the idea.


     
  • Zimbabwe to introduce gold coins as local currency
  • 1983 - 2015 - Peter Zeihan

    35 years with plenty of finance, no security risks, and where anyone who wanted to play a part in the international trading system could (even countries that could have never been successful on their own in a pre-American-led-and-secured globalized system), and it was backed up by massive waves of workers and consumers. Low security costs allowed low-cost production.

    China had its best 35 years. Remove American globalism from the equation and it doesn't work. Play China forward and you see they don't have a work force.

    Currently, half the world population is dependent directly on food imports. 3/4 on fertilizer imports to grow their own food. Trade links.

    Some places weren't able to expand their populations until they could import food (like the Middle East). Some places couldn't get into manufacturing until the security thing happened (like East Asia). Some places used to go to war for energy until recently (like Europe).

     
  • People not liking Elon

    So he agreed to buy Twitter and now, after weeks of 'show me how many bots,' he's not going to buy it. Twitter is taking him to Delaware court to make him buy / pay a fine (capped at $1b someone said), and their case is strong.

    However, the Delaware Chancery Courts people have reportedly said they are concerned that even if they rule, Elon might just say nope not paying, and that reflects bad on them as an authority. Also, it's an extreme measure to make someone buy something they don't want to buy, although they have forced people to do so, but for like $500m not for like $20b.

    What people were talking bad about was that people can get so powerful and rich, no one wants to go after them. They're just like nope I can't get involved with that guy. That it's sort of 'flouting the institutions' of the country.

     
  • "Maybe a mild recession is not the worst thing for some of these companies because it gives you pretext to fire some low performers." - paraphrased Josh Brown



  • Non-performing auto loans

    Repos. Although you won't lose your house right away if you miss a payment, if you don't make a payment for your car they'll repossess it.

    Loan to value 140%. (What you could get for the car if you sold it compared to what you paid for it).

    Anecdotal is that most of the repos are from loans for 2020 and 2021. Lots of people making $2500 with car payments of $1000 (at that income level most financial advisers recommend $500).

    Prime repos (high credit scores) usually is 2% and is now 4%.

    Sub-prime repos (towing a car out of a driveway) have doubled to 11%.

  • Putin to temporarily shut down Nord Stream, reportedly
  • Sri Lanka protests. Destroyed the leaders house. He resigned. India did not send military aid.