Walmart went with Lilo and Missy Eliot.
Billie Eilish in headlines for ‘bravely’ fighing body shaming by taking her shirt of and being in just a bra. Of course, the headlines were mocked. Is this a PC-advised way to transition (with as much of the fanbase as possible) to being more sexy?
But it's ‘for a retro look'?
This isn't super relevant to ‘today’ because pros have probably always had the same situation, but there have been headlines about people (women) having instagram/tiktok regret after becomming nude/sex/whatever workers on those platforms. Did just so much time pass in which the negative consequences of selling that were just forgotten to culture? Traditionally it seems everyone advised against going that way, but maybe it was forgotten after like the 60s or something, and more in the recent generations? and maybe it had something to do with the slowly increasing selling of more graphic/personal sexuality on TV, movies, music, promotion.
Harvard ranked last out of 254 schools in the US in terms of free speech etc.
There's nothing wrong with criticizing Israel, Ackman said, but you can't talk about ‘eliminating’ a people or group or something similar to that.
Allowing people to say hateful things, threatening things, creates a hostile environment not condusive to learning.
‘What the prison population is shifting towards is more political crime, more white collar crime. More things that aren't really crimes.' - Shkreli
Omegle shutting down after 14 years. The guy doesn't want to have a heart attack in his 30s, can't economically or psychologically continue. Because, like the telephone, it is a tool sometimes used by people in even abusive ways, but, unlike the telephone, its a tool that can do something no other tool can do, allow users to meet strangers in a safe way. He built it (and would have otherwise liked to continue maintaining it if not for the legal and personal attacks) to connect strangers in a safe way, total strangers, to talk about anything they wanted, a philosophical discussion randomly or whatever, something not possible anywhere else. In his explanation blog, he mentions that he was raped as a child (don't know what these words indicate but whatever) and that he felt safe exploring things using Omegle because no one could actually reach him.
I actually had assumed Omegle wasn't a thing anymore, as I haven't heard it mentioned in like 10 years. Onward with the destruction of actual people and real interactions or actuation through the current version of the internet.
Open 6 to 6, and some are open evenings or weekends.
Under 3 years old, 4 children per group. Over 3, there are 7 children per group.
‘I don’t understand why men don't rebel. They should.'
In a recall election, they voted out the entire council and the guy who raised the question was like, ‘"I didn’t understant this at all, so I'm gonna run. I'M gonna run. If not me, who?' And he ran. And he's up there now. So that's one of the greatest examples of democracy in action." - Lehto
Adams Township, Michigan.
Wants dolarization. And to close their Central Bank.
Binance, largest crypto exchange, still operating, but charges and guilty pleas for top brass for disguising information, including payments that had something to do with Hamas. So current Israel-Palestine action being employed here in banking controls.
This year the warmest on record, perhaps.
AI pin by a company called Humane. It's worn on your breast and takes photo and audio. Camera glasses were also relaunced (after the version attempted years ago ended with people getting punched for wearing them). Public spaces will no longer be fun except for vloggerwhores, unless there is publicPrivacy laws passed or the punching people become common.
Socially negative products.
With social media, you can go on and set the record straight, even after the entire media attacks you, successfully labels you, the state processes you as suits them. You can go on and say, if you think so, come see how I live my life. - Schreli said this stuff
Community Notes. For one to be shown, people who have historically disagreed must agree in order for a note to be shown. #Musk on X/Twitter
All the code and all the data are open source and can be reproduced.
Tesla never learn what pedestrians or cars or anything are. It learnt itself from video.
‘Well, how do you know it won’t get the idea to murder us (AGI, which should be able to enter into any state, have any idea)? Well, that's the problem that has beset us forever. And that's the problem that was solved with liberalism and the enlightenment. And now we know how to do it. We know how to bring people up in a society that makes it extremely unlikely that they will become enemies of civilization. ... But it's not inevitable. It will all depend on what we chose to do.' - Deutch Explains
Microsoft is getting OpenAI now, I guess. The organization/relationships were compromised and made a mess, after which they can offer deals. It seems they have it as either deal the workers take, they get them. Years/months ago, Musk noted Microsoft would probably get OpenAI.
People have commented on how big an effect SF has had, since in Silicone Valley almost no companies have any ability to protect company secrets (due in part to California law interpreting noncompete or something). People can leave anytime and reuse what they know, so it might mostly depend on compensation. Is there anything in their model that favors morality/human rights?
Berkshire is holding record cash, can't seem to find anything they value buying. They have it in short term security and buybacks.
Is there just a lot of money nowadays and a big investor is less useful? For example, all the new companies get bought at too-high prices, more fail than Buffet's traditional model (or even a model of overall viability), but some have success?
The economy was supposed to be much weaker. It's not. That's why when the market moves, the marrative shifts to fit that price action. - Misra
Fundamentals are holding up in Qs. Tax loss harvesting occurs everywhere except the megacaps. Buybacks will be strongest in megacaps. Megacaps have least sensitivity to cost of borrowing.
Retail traders aren't trading as much. Not great for RobinHood, Schwab, who had been pushed to highs. Can they build a base of wealthier, long term investors who want to use their product? Retailers have learned it's tough to earn on the market, and that this can eat away at their returns.
118 day Hollywood writers strike over (tentative deal still has to be signed). The impact of the strike will be seen rolling. Shows that they didn't write were put off, so will be shown later, next year. How will the industry be on the other side of this? There's a question about if you strike too much there may not be any place to strike from. Writers will get bonuses for hit series though now.
Disney cut back production costs $27b to $2b, so the cost of several projects. Others doing the same. End of content bubble. It's hard to screw up sports, some say, but you gotta figure out how to do it.
Disney parks are more expensive now so sort of target more affluent customers.
European gas inventories are almost 100% full.
Berkshires costs are up 40%.
Same quarter or quarter before Berkshire moved stocks.
Buffet's taxes were stolen and leaked.
This was done by ProPublica, whose business model seems to be significantly just going after wealthy people who have made money (legally). Buffet has a long resume.
More tech layoffs announced.
China. Visitors there need WeChat and DiDi (WeChat pay requires Chinese bank account) to do simple things like pay for taxis (report someone had to pay 100yuan instead of 30 because the driver didn't have change. They had to go to Chinese bank to open an account for WeChat, which required a Chinese phone number, so they had to acquire that from a Chinese telecom, which required a Chinese ID number. Because they were foreign passport holders, they had to buy a 1-year telecom package.
Some hotels reject foreign guests unless they're registered with the public security beaureau.
Canton Fair: 80% Drop in EU/US Buyers. Instead, new customers are from Belt and Road countries.
Unions aren’t about money to the workers, they're about control, said Ron Baron. He said the TSLA stock went down yesterday because Biden said should unionize, Tesla. The other automakers have unions. It's true that there's little way for a government/large organization to influence a mass of individual workers but can deal with a small committee that controls those workers.
Rating stays the same at AAA. This is outlook. The rating doesn't have to do with the economy or workers or productivity. The issue is politicians.
Costco made new highs
Walmart. Target, after plummeting during the year, has been flat since September. The difference is Walmart sells groceries (and US has been in inflation). Anecdotally, someone also said Walmart loves lowering prices and Target hates doing so. Walmart consumables, Target discretionary.
There was a big rally November 14, basically everything green. Russel was up like 4.5% while other indexes were up like 2 or less. Smaller names had big jumps in stock price, while the most famous tech names were just regular up days.
Ford lost $62k on each EV it sold last quarter. Lucid lost $227k per car sold last quarter.
Might be some point here about acoutability being proveable in AI and less so in people.
Possible white-collar recession
Airlines have ‘become banks’, selling airmiles to CCs. SWA announced their points will be worth less next year. Lots of points out there.
Right now, domestic travel is down. Still lots of international.
Inflation decrementing at 20basis points per month. Middle of 2024 core CPE might be 2.7 or 2.8 with Fed funds at 5.5. Fed might think it's oversteering.
“Stock pickers paradise” - BofA
“Delinquincies are just coming back to normal after the pandemic.”
Rates. Went from ‘almost too accomodative’ 0% to 5%. Which is different from like 3% to 8%. Also consumers and corporates prepared for higher rates, and locked in obligations at low rates.
Argentina, if it changes to dollars, it needs how many actual dollar bills in the country? It currently has a shortage. Is tying its economy to the US economy a good thing? In future it will be constricted in using monetary policy to buffer against changes in the economy.
Lebanon did incremental rollout of dollarization, starting with certain sectors or businesses.
Homebuilders still doing well, although DIYers down. The pros. Partly because no one is buying new homes.
‘I understand his animus towards Bill Gates for shorting his stock, because that really was a move to try to shut the company down. I don’t understand the same animus towards advertisers who decide to no longer advertise on X because they don't like what's there and they don't want their brand associated with that.' - CNBC host
‘It’s a very bad choice.' Musk on the 2024 election prospects, a sentiment agreed with by many. No one is impressed really with any candidate (perhaps in the general population, because their rallies seem to have supporters).
Auto dealer inventory piling up, discounts will be there.
People are paying a lot for house and vehicle, but that has an easy fix, which is monetory policy. - Tom Lee
Newpipe, Libretube, Freetube. GrayJay. Rumble Studio.
Jewish celebrities wrote a group letter to TikTok.
IBM pulled ads from X after seeing its ads had been placed next to pro-Nazi (reportedly) content.
If the Nobel organization picked one field per year that received no Nobel prize because ‘not enough progress was made' that would have a disciplining effect without a ‘bullshit check’. - Samo Burja idea
Info, ?fake info?, fake accounts with wild allegations to muddy the waters, debunking, fake debunking.
‘The First Amendment is a very qualified right.’ - Schreli
Should we consider Hamas members as created by Israel?
What is the worst thing that happened today? - Elon
If you have 20m users and over $1b revenue (only Meta and Google). Meta didn't want to comply and now blocks Canadian news organization links. Google threatened to do the same but now has reached a deal and the links are not blocked.
It's to compensate news organizations when they share their links (?and click through to them?). Not all ‘news’, but some news that meets certain standards they decided. Google didn't want to deal with each organization, but is willing to deal with one organization that represents them all.
Question of democracy. If voting relies on news, and if people who now get their news from online, can't access reputable news organizations, could pose challenges. Perhaps a bigger principle at stake.
The sheriff isn´t allowed to keep it, so they give it to the Fed who does their due dillegence for 20% and then returns 80% to the sheriff. ´The financial motive makes it inconsistent with due process.' Ẃe keep getting robbed by the Sheriff.' The TRO burden isn´t met. ‘Prove to us you’re innocent.' ‘Uncontroverted.’ ‘All you have is self-serving statements.’
‘Law enforcement, across the entire USA, represent the single greatest threat to our personal safety and well being,' said a commenter. Both the almost only prevention of crime organizations and also perhaps the largest criminal organizations.
This case was decided today, 7 years after the events, siding with the family. Is law enforcement or health care the greatest harm in the USA? Like police, its something that generally serves but also is widely evidenced to harm.
DEA et al, keeping it. ‘There’s nothing different than being robbed. Someone come up with a gun and take your money.'
Between 2000 and 2016, a Jacksonville's airport's customs seized $108m in cash.
The foundation of war is economics. - Musk
Proposals from 3 bidders, reportedly.
SBF took the stand, without the jury present, by his own choice. (Some time ago he'd also commented that he regretted filing bankrupcy that he knew he had the right to not do so but he'd be pressured to by his advisors or whoever, and that he only had his own self to blame.)
SBF had been started to be painted by other people. I guess this can happen when you stay silent (which happens during legal proceedings, or when you don't want to be baited by unworthy intentions to engage with people of higher value). He's been painted as a fake genius who put on his famous appearance to look like a tech savant, etc. But now it seems he's showing who he is and speaking for himself, and I haven't heard any real missteps. He's blamed himself for errors, but hasn't of course taken any gratuitous contrition. To me he comes off as a scientist or engineer, dealing with things rationally, but it appears he has no malevolent or particularly avaricious intentions. Now people say he'll get destroyed by cross examination. They point out he hasn't been forthcoming on some of the things he was asked about, saying he didn't recall with confidence.
Whatever happens in the trial now, on the other side of it SBF still is a person worth listening to and believing and seeing what he does. He retains his integrity, and maybe gets a bit more for chosing to speak for himself and by speaking show normal intentions, rather than playing law and hunkering down.
SBF was convicted on all counts. People are saying the prosecution really went after him, but some have already raised the counter that the prosecution handed out plea deals and things left and right, and might have really only been going after SBF. Also, there might be something worth noting about SBF being a non legal(read:insincere and advantage-seeking) type of defendant. He's spoken openly and sincerely, not at all guardedly, to it seems everyone, including vloggers and the court. This is the kind of defendant its pretty easy for a prosecution to tear up.
“Smart” = unfixable
Recent science has it that fame isn't fleeting, it isn't 15 minutes. Most people who appeared significantly in news retain their fame long afterward. Also, it might be that there is not much revolving door, that there isn't much people coming in and displacing already famous people.
Japan: Livestreamers/content makers from US and other non-Asian countries have been making a public nuisance of themselves in Japan for fame. One was arrested after a citizen stood up to him. Talk of banning all streaming in public.
A few years ago after a dangerous incident using drones, all drones were banned within a week, after which they rolled that ban back and created laws.
Is there another part of economics where a country that has a high minimum wage/rich economy has few tourists, and those it gets are people with money, so their local culture and society are preserved, whereas cheap/poor countries get massive influxes of misbehaviour which degrades their culture? Japan never had as much tourism as now, because the yen is very cheap. Countries like Thailand and Colombia are traditionally cheap (although there misbehaviour has less of an effect because their culture isn't like in Japan).
Is what is common in Colombia coming to (southern) US now? Americans, as in Colombia, would be easy targets it seems. Or is it the fake Uber driver thing that's been going for a while in Austin?
Will the country shut down to travel for a day? due to mining protests.
Is it because no one believes anything issuing from that source, that they use quotation marks for their statements?
When EV makers go bankrupt, what will happen to the car?
Bonds have shown that they're bad hedges against inflation. We haven't had inflation in 40 years so everyone forgot about that. - Siegel
Stocks are real assets, just like real estate is.
Luxury market. Wines and spirits puchases down. Some watches prices going down.
The data the Fed is looking at is changing.
Americans' savings almost gone, while in the rest of the world pandemic savings are still high. How reliant is the consumer to overnight interest rates, and if the answer is ‘Not very,' ...
Costs for United. A flat cost assumption for 2024. Costs up 4-5% yOy. And every 1 point of cost is $1 of EPS on $10 of EPS for 2024. New labor contracts and aircraft delays. 8-10 year restocking cycle (also in Defense). Oil prices up.
The market has lost the Fed/policy as an anchor (guide) because it's data dependent (backward looking and dubious). Technicals also not an anchor because the market lost the reliable buyers (Fed, China, institutional investors who are under water, Japan).
Short term, the inherent stabilizers of the market aren't there now. The people who, every time the market went down, would come in to lock in those interest rates (who have been buying and watching the valuations continue downward). The market is hunting for buyers of conviction.
We know supply is gonna go up. The Fed is going to offer more bonds.
(Excessive) data dependence is ridiculous because it means using tools that have lags. The notion you are looking at a forward-looking economy in inherently inconsistent.
He said previous Feds had taken a forward-looking view instead. Controversial at the time, but it was critical in anchoring the markets.
Higher rates don't matter to many people. Answer to the question why the higher rates aren't really affecting the economy.
Morgan Stanley saw about 50% less money coming into accounts than the year before. The year before, everyone was making 1% on their cash and they could be making 5%, so they all called and made money moves. Now everyone's sitting with 5% and there's no fomo from equities.
Tax loss harvesting in October. Mutual funds want to clear losers off their books before the tax cutoff (October), so they are willing to sell even at an 80% loss when the stock is only down 70%. After October, those sellers have left the market, and this leads to rallies in these low-quality stocks. They go up Nov through Jan.
Bitcoin. The spot ETF is back in the news, and bitcoin jumped again, up about 20% to $35k. It had been as low as $17k last year. When it rose to $70k during Fed money printing, it was tracking with the stock market, drawing considerations that it was tethered to the market now. But this year it has gone up 100% from lows, and up the most recent 40% (from 25 to 35) while the market has not gone up really much (not a risk on tech market), so it appears to be not correlated now. Fink called it a ‘flight to quality’. TLT is down about the same as bitcoin is from their highs. But people aren't buying TLT.
Pompliano called bitcoin the most disciplined central bank in the world, because no one bails it out. If the Fed approves an ETF, that might be good for bitcoin. If the Fed bans bitcoin, people might buy it because they'll really think it's not inside the system, and isn't controlled by any government.
Luxury brands have come down from their highs (last march, 6 months ago), stocks down about 30 or 40%. Sales are back in line with tradition. Hermes is down 12%. Most discretionary items most vulnerable. Champagne sales down for first time in 3 years.
Chanel flat bag is $10k. 4 or 5 years ago, it was $5k.
Most buyers of luxury are not wealthy. They're upper middle class that like to splurge. They currently don't have all that extra cash.
Rich-cession. High earners filing for unemployment. Credit. They're looking at the stock market, which is their holding. Many companies survive because of rich people spending, and all that is driven by the stock market. Top 20% by income account for 50% of spending (?in the economy or just luxury?). Their spending keeps the economy going, keeps companies profitable.
Tech giants and Financial companies (Wells cut 11k jobs ie 5% of their workforce), which had made headlines for laying off thousands of people at a time last year, has stopped doing such layoffs.
Do inversions predict recessions, or do they cause recessions, as Arnott said?
Recessions always start with an economy that's booming. It's the nature of the peek, said Arnott.
People are talking about bitcoin and equities being ‘the safe asset’ because they've lost confidence in government bonds because of the nature of this interest rate risk. El-Erian
Real estate. 7% interest rate for loans for good credit applicants. Homebuilders are paying sometimes 10-11% now, which may lead to restriction of supply and raise rents.
SBF said he bought the Miami Heat arena as advertising, because he didn't believe in Facebook ads, and it was considered a 19-year advertising investment, so it would be 1% of FTX's revenue.
‘It’s t-bill and chill for people at upper end of wealth spectrum'
The 10-year at 5%, reflects uncertainty about how high the Fed has to be. If inflation weakens and unemployment picking up, the Fed will start to cut, is what the markets will think. Tom Lee.
If the economy slows but consistent with soft landing, that's ‘bad news is good news’ but if it's a sudden slowing because we just ran out of gas that's actually ‘bad news is bad news’.
$2t a month a gross issuance.
Inflation might be below 3% next year, said Rieder. However due to government borrowing the long end might not come down. He thinks we'll get a normal curve soon.
Consumption is 70% services in the US. In 100 years there's only been 14 negative quarters of negative growth in services.
China has been tightening over the past year, at various levels including nationally.
The return to office has stalled - JPM guy
What worked in low interest environment (last decade) may not work now, in high interest. Sea change, according to Howard Marks. Teslas were cheap, solar panels were cheap, when financing was low, but cost many percent more now. The companies if they want to keep sales figures have to lower their price to meet consumers' purchasing power. Over the past week or so, Marks, Barrons and Ackman have all publicly advocated bonds to degrees. Siegel also thinks the 10-year is near the top.
McDonalds reported well-higher revenue because of higher prices, but traffic was actually lower.
Canada talking about higher for longer. Unknown what will be the thing people cut from their personal budgets, if rent/inflation continues and wages grow less quickly, what will be the things not purchased?
Families in the US on average are 40% wealthier than before 2019. Investments and real estate. The biggest demographic is under 35, who are like 150% wealthier (no other demographic is anywhere close). Do young people have a work experience completely different from any other generation?
Net worth may be irrelevant to peoples ‘happiness’ because you can't spend a house or a 401k. Prices are inflated.
Biggest names in S&P, the top 10%, are paying an effective interest rate of 2.5%, while the bottom 50% are paying 5.5%.
WeWork bankrupt. Doesn't seem much illustrative of any significant larger theme. They leased a lot of offices.
Bond talk day, Nov 1. Bond rates dropped, based on a bit better than expected news about treasury refunding, and then a bit more on reports of weaker economic data. $2b is worth 15basispoints lower. Long end demand starting to wane.
AirBNBust hasn't really happened. Rising interest rates help the company (even if the opposite for it's host clients). AirBNB has cashflow. It gets to hold billions of dollars between the time guests pay and hosts receive. Same for Expedia and Booking. But the headwinds talked about before are still potential. Bookings are down and ADR rates are down/moderating, and there are policy changes in some cities.
So companies do tests and share results of tests with Federal government before public release. Bio synthesis screening. Content authentication.
EV purchases have slowed, but companies that had based their premise on the wide adoption of EVs are facing more serious pressures, and corporations are cutting back investments.
Lack of affordable EVs.
Bad trademarks are easist to get. Reviews can be purchased. Laziest solution is the most suited for Amazon-type stores?
No incentive for engagement as a business model. So no outrageous posts. Academics over influencers. Accountability, because how things are edited are transparent and documented and public.
But the Mexican government didn't like that Samsung and Motorola did this, and economically punished them.
The phone companies did this through the devices IMEI. It reached into devices and locked the users from accessing their info.
6% favor Palestinians. 36% say treat both the same (which is down from 53% in 2014. Also, less people are ‘unsure’ than in 2014).
Republicans and Independents put securing the US/Mex border as the #1 security consideration, followed by aid for Israel, while democracts put Ukraine at top then aid to Israel.
Is this just an impossible situation for US leaders? Israel is their partner and no matter what they have to side with them (or even criticise or admit criticism of them), but people naturally are not impressed with Israel or the situation there, and so US leaders must want nothing other than to avoid this topic. People immediatley after the invasion started protesting at the US government buildings, which allowed this to be a news story in headlines.
Basically, Hamas forcing the situation, forcing Israel to act more brusquely, forces other people/nations to one side or the other (it comes up at the UN, newspapers, etc). If they chose immorally it can be uncomfortable and detrimental for them.
Similarly, the India situation in Canada right now.
Is it that there hasn't been much confrontation in a while? China and the US only a couple years ago became non-mutual-silence-allies at the upper government levels.
Venezuela is a source of some of the heaviest crude, and there are few places that can process this. US wants to do more refining.
Azerbaijan had blocaded Nagorno-Karabakh for months and then invaded and took full control in a 24-hour offensive. The Armenian separatists agreed to disarm and most of the 100k Armenians relocated themselves to Armenia.
Arrested for misplacing a document at a council meeting, after arranging a petition for the resignation of the mayor.
She couldn't sue the city council officials because they have qualified immunity, and they had made sufficient probable cause to arrest her (that she had perhaps stolen her document).
The police in that city arrested her and then released her a day later, dropping the charges. Ie she wasn't taken to trial. But she as the defendent has been trying to have the court to take it to trial so she can prove she had been wronged through law/police.
She's trying to say that the qualified immunity does not fit this case.
It's a ‘what if’ case. What if we allow city councils and authorities to do this.
Institute of Justice is working on it. Is IoJ the new ACLU?
Is good faith enough?
Some people were killed at home, and the police requested anyone (among 1b search users) who had searched that address.
There is little about a person that isn't revealed by reviewing a 1-month search history, including things they tell no one because they're private (and sometimes they would otherwise not even address).
The majority recognized people have a constitutional right to privacy in their internet search querries, and that these impact speech rights.
Before the Amendments were written, there was a ‘general warrant’ where a judge gave police a general warrant to go around, knock on random doors and say ‘we have a warrant’ and barge in. Since the Amendment, police need a specific warrant where they say who or what they are looking for.
EFF disappointed with the results of the case.
Go to your search results for the month and look through them, and see if you would like strangers/authorities to have that info. Now consider that of your family members.
The court took the trial on the road and it was hosted at a highschool. It's much easier to go see.
The argument police/city used was “We didn't need a warrant because we were just flying a drone over your property.” They also used “an anonymous tip by a neighbor" for an impetus. Their argument was that the drone was not touching the ground.
The town council is using tax dollars and “don't even seem to care” if this case is taken to the Supreme court and the costs associated?
Another what if case. Every town council will buy a drone and regularly fly it over every property all the time and look for things.
Said to be to combat planned obsolesence and companies selling cars that they know won't last. The bill also has things to do with right to repair.
What about TV? Phones? Junk food? Exercise?
Can't take drone images ‘for surveilance’. Originally journalists had sued to be able to and won, but on appeal this. It's legal only up to 8 feet off the ground and you can't use ‘ampificaiton’ (zoom).
‘And nothing in the No-Fly provisions has anything to do with speech or expression. These are flight restrictions, not speech restrictions.’
First in US. Seattle PD can't knowingly lie, saying it undermines public trust in police (not outweighed, said mayor). We might also say in society in general, since police will lie to one friend saying his friend said he did things and thereby pressure him into ratting on his friend. People have falsely confessed to murder because they were lied to and browbeaten in this way. The can still lie for felonies but not minor property crimes.
Seattle PD can't make a false statement to press or in any way that ‘shocks the conscience’ so we don't know what that means yet.
SBF used a company that links up investors with celebs, like K5, “a one-stop shop for relationships.” SBF paid hundreds of millions to K5 and expressed the possibility of investing up to $1b.
“He is probably the most connected person I've ever met. At his dinner at his house were Hilary Clinton, Doug Enhof, Katie Perry, Orlando Bloom, Kate Hudson, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jeff Bezos, Ted Sorandos, Kendal, and Cory Gamble.”
He paid or was to pay $30m to Steph Curry, $50 for Tom Brady and Gizelle Bundchen, and $10m for Larry David to appear in his Superbowl commercial.
Alameda had a $65b line of credit with FTX.
Less than 10% of London police carry.
Maybe a bad thing, maybe not necesarily? How good are schools now? Education doesn't just come from schools these days. Do kids get enough education even without so much school, for the jobs they will fill?
Are some countries just ones were when people have guns they'll shoot in public spaces more? Or is it all countries?
Organized crime on the rise, especially in NZ.
Self checkout is helping criminals.
NZ even high earners having a hard time making ends meet, inflation.
Already knew the events, but didn't have evidence until 2018 when one of the culprit made admissions.
Musk went to visit Eagle Pass, Texas, the site of thousands of mostly Venezuelan young male migrants entering the US. Among the most frequent comments were about him doing so before either the President or Vice President. He said he wanted to see for himself what was going on there.
‘Government by crisis.’
Is that an appropriate characterization?
Someone commented in Texas they can get housing approved in 3 months (building new homes). It's 3 years in Canada.
Sheltering women and children first, so most of those outside are of course men.
2000 Rockets for cover and Hamas gunmen entered in Israeli territory. Hamas says they have taken hostages into Hamas territory. Forces in the streets. Fighting in maybe 5 regions.
Some crossed in paragliders. Tunnels.
Hamas says the action is in response to actions by Israel in Jerusalem and some compound.
Israel is bracing. Military planes are striking Gaza.
How was Hamas able to plan and then coordinate this? considering Israel is one of the biggest tech spy countries. Pegasus came from them, it was reported. They're also friends with the US which people consider to have access to all social media/Android/iPhone. There was maybe 1000 people who knew about the attack, considering there were hundreds of soldiers from Hamas.
Within a day or two there was a headline of 700 dead in Israel, and 400 Palestinians. US sent a carrier.
Headlines about Sweden ‘lauded’ for it's ‘freedom loving’ approach to pandemic. During the pandemic, they took a lot of shit. You're letting your people die. You're not doing everything you can for them. It was hardest to be Sweden, but they seemed pretty secure in their frame when I saw them questioned or provoked along these lines.
Now, the word I hear people most commonly used to describe the Canadian government is ‘tyranny,’ people having in mind the lockdowns, forced vaccines, response to trucker protest, mainly, and then other headlines more or less seem to reinfornce this view. America people just think is ridiculous, with the Congressional budget crises every few months. California, once considered the perhaps most free, the Wild West, now is considered the most socially engineered, socialism, most ignoring of civil rights.
Who can buy Disney's assets? Where 80% of Americans get their news, the government won't let just anybody buy it.
Sweden (only in Europe) didn't lock down. It's rates were in line with other northern European/Scandanavian/Germanic countries, ie relatively low compared with Southern Europe. However, it's ‘excess deaths’ were the lowest in Europe.
How does this lead to trust/distrust in government? The health authorities in Sweden are not politicians. They are not ‘part of the government’. They don't have a policy and then fight for it. They don't have to defend an ideology. Contrasted with Fauci.
Twitter X is a way to reach people who don't watch TV, don't use much other social media. And maybe high quality users.
Info came from US, 5 Eyes System. “US has much better intelligence capabilities in Canada than the Canadian government does. Verified by British government." We've never seen Indian government assasinate anyone outside their own borders.
Indian diaspora is the largest in the world. Interesting in considering the dynamics. What if India assasinates someone who acutally matters to someone. People (Indians in this case) who leave their country are often not very patriotic, so will Indians in Canada be louder than otherwise?
They went to different court houses and thumbed through the warrants police gave Google to get info.
In one case, a police officer's personal car was stolen, and the police requested Google for all the phones that were in the area at that time and also for all searches for the model of radio the car had. Google gave them location data but not search data.
A search warrant used to be for an individual, but this is for a location or a seach term, and involves everyone. Geofence warrants. Keyword search warrants. Legislation has been proposed in CA and NY to ban these types of warrants. Google received 60k search warrants last year, double those of 2019.
Is Google safeguarding user privacy? Google has a department for reviewing these requests. ‘If you collect this data, they will come to request it.’
Surveillance and control as a form of ‘violence’?
Syrian pres's plane escorted by air protection of Pakistan, Iran, SA and Russia, as a precaution against ‘Anglo-American Empire’ ‘Rules Based Reich’. - Some blogger named Corrine
The Iranians look down on the Chinese as an inferior society, Zeihan said. Really? and on what grounds?
Not much progress against monopoly.
Ecosystem, rather than just different parts of a business.
A juror had said that the defendent deserves to go to jail because they're rich, white, and entitled. Another juror told the judge this, but it was a lie. Juror26 said 'm standing up for white people.
WHO is not elected.
‘What’s with all the secrecy?'
It's all happening by default, if no one does anything. Just by not doing anything, something happens.
100k signatures in the UK, but still no public hearing. Canada and Australia also got more than enough signatures.
The racial equality policy written by NY DA Bragg aims at equality of outcome, not treating people equally. The statement the victim of the original crime made reads like he was the aggressor and the perpetrator was the victim, the lawyer says. ‘Evidence mischaracterized.’
Any streamer who makes $10k would have to register with the Can govt and then hand over info on their listeners.
In the vid, they also comment on how hate laws are used by the government to oppress groups who oppose them.
Usually people complain when Cali passes a new law.
This is a ‘backspace’ for data brokers (those who buy and sell personal data). With one single request all the companies have to delete it at once. 500 data brokers are already registered with California.
Most states sell your drivers licence info to the companies who collect this data. Post offices sell your new address when you change address. Post offices sell info on which people have recently moved to an area.
‘We’ll sell it if you promise to use it properly.'
'The burden of policing data brokers shouldn't be on consumers.'
People can go get your property data, taxes, whether you're up to date.
Note: if you write your name and address a certain way, you will be able to track from which original source your address for junk mail was leaked/sold.
JPM net income up 24-35% (lower figure excludes First Republic purchase).
Tom Hanks issued a message that there was an ad of him for some dental company and it was just AI and he ‘was not involved.’Most AI-domination scenarios "quite stupid," distract from real issues: AI safety expert - YouTube
AI is a partner, not autonomous. It is asked for things, and the result is massaged as it's giving it.
How Israel's Iron Dome is struggling, seems to be just the barrage, which is more things at a time than they are built to respond to. DDoS.City Used Tax Dollars to Spy on Residents - YouTube
Voters widely rejected the city council's plan to build a sports arena. Then they paid $10k per month (for 3 months) to watch opponents of the proposed arena. The real question is What are you going to do with the information about opponents once you got it? because that wouldn't be in the contract.
Putting something on a ballet means it is expected to have some opposed and some for. Ie democracy? But this seems to imply that the government wanted to find out who opposed and do something to alter this.
Selling packages of consumer products the buyer doesn't know what. 54m users in US. Grown a lot in past couple months. I'd never heard of it before this week when it appeared in headlines saying it was coming for Amazon. Ridiculously cheap deals, cheaper than Amazon, like half or a third of the Amazon price for some things shown (is this because Amazon shifted years ago to trying to profit from products, perhaps manipulating sales competition)? Amazon charges sellers 30%.
Gamified. Spin a wheel and get promo bonuses. Also has games that if you play you can gain buying benefits on their site.
Chinese manufacturers used to sell these products to US retailers, but now Chinese companies are also doing the retail.
Temu takes a bit longer to arrive, but does this Amazon advantage, which they spent a lot on in the past decade, really matter to customers?
Race to the bottom?
Temu spends a lot on advertising, mostly on Facebook etc. They send free products to influencers. They send promo codes, afiliate links to share on social media. However their products might be cheap quality. Knockoffs (like Shien).
Parent company is Pinduoduo. It has a lot of money. It's model is extremely low (unsustainable?) prices. Sales compounding eventually made Pinduoduo profitable in its compatition with Alibaba. It's focus is on customer aquisition and not on profits.
US regulators have been ‘fighting’ TikTok but haven't done anything regarding Temu.
China hasn't made it very easy for foreign investors to operate on the ground over past years when China was a surging place everyone wanted to do business. Now, their period of growth is possibly over, and what can they expect from foreigners?
Services the government wants, versus companies competing with Chinese firms.
Tax intake hasn't been strong this year.
This month, student loan payments resume or something, and on the 15th, there'll be a squeeze on liquidity and the banks because back-taxes in Cali, deferred due to bad weather last year, will come due. Maybe a factor in both bonds and stocks.
Utilities (and other dividend stocks) are way down, compared with S&P also underperforming. They're competing with fixed income of 5%. Less volatile. They're trading at like 19x PE. Some say they should trade at 12x and 10forward.
Utilities are huge borrowers of debt.
tf utilities are not defensive.
A market where all that matters is the balance sheet, with rates being where they are. Because companies, even ones doing good business, that are borrowing, especially on floating rates, are not looking so good. What looks good is businesses that are making profits.
De-inverting very rapidly. - Gundlach
-80 to -30 in past 2 weeks, 2 and 10 year.
Gasoline demand at 25-year low. Rapid decel in credit card spending (5 months consecutive).
The impact of rising rates is affecting the real economy right now.
It's affecting areas of the market expert investors thought were unable to be penetrated.
Clean energy and Solar etfs are down 20 or 30%. Have to borrow right now to fund their projects.
As rates come back down, people will want to buy a different house again (currently they have 3% rates and don't want to buy something with a 7% rate).
40-year low in mortgage delinquincies. Lots of people can afford the new rates, so there is demand (but not supply).
Fed might not be controlling it anymore, but rather bond investors.
Tom Lee said the morning was a bottom and bounce, and it did bounce and closed Friday high. JPM has been talking about 20% more downside.
‘It looks like sugary drinks are one of the places people cut back the most.’ They modify their product for each country. Coke is expanding into coffee and alcoholic beverages. They have knowhow how to bring products to market.
Wells Fargo's exposure to West Coast and loan market.
People actually want to do M&A again, because for the past couple years, the companies had the option to go public and raise more money than an M&A would bring.
He said a slowdown started 3 months ago and people stopped calling a couple weeks ago. And now the people who call are looking for the best deal, and he even lowered his prices. His minimum now is $125, which he quoted for a couple easy things, but months ago he wouldn't even have gone for less that $250.
Mechanic said the same thing, that people don't want to do anything unless it's under warranty.
“As a licensed Home Inspector, this is my worst year in 14 years. The economy is terrible, but the housing market is the worst. One thing I will point out to you, all of those customers that you were too busy to reply to when you were busy, that was a mistake. You could have established a relationship with some of them and maybe some of the others would be reaching out now or in the future. Always touch base with the client that reaches out. Even if you’re too busy, take advantage of the opportunity. Good luck moving forward my friend.”
Why didn't towns and schools open programs to train people and youths how to do things like home repairs etc, like a 1 or 3 month program.
Before, the Fed was trying to get inflation UP TO 2%, but they couldn't do it. Even if they pushed down on their scale, they couldn't make that happen. Now they're trying to do the opposite, selling bonds and raising interest rates.
We still have enormous fiscal stimulus in the economy. Politicians can't agree on what baseline spending should be, not passing budgets. We haven't seen anything much happen in job destruction or wage destruction.
1000 little cuts?
Retail outlets seeing headwinds, and people's credit there (credit makes 60% of their revenue, not actual clothing sales, someone said on CNBC) is seeing delincuincies. Apple not growing fast. Amazon seeing FTC suit for monopoly. Lots of red on the market maps. Companies had good revenue in past quarters and mentioned AI, but x NVDA no one has actually done anything selling AI, which might mean correction upcoming earnings. Basically everyone has mildly negative things to say about market and economy, and no real positives. 10 year still steepening.Strikes on the rise: Here's why this is happening - YouTube
Example of propaganda from this perspective.
Will Elon be able to get highly valued CEOs? or just COOs?
We haven't had a real recession for 15 years (except for a short blip). So we have a lot of excess we need to work out of the system. Some of that is worked out and the cushion is thinner, but there's more excess to go. - Katie Koch
Capital is re-pricing agressively, and (more, referring to banks) things will break. - Koch
Only 1% of the population, those who make over $5000 per month, will pay income taxes. It was said this would affect 1.something m people (Argentine popluation is 46m). Argentina will print more money to meet the president's socialist promises, who comes to office in December (so the plan hasn't been put in place yet).
In India, 1.6% pay income taxes. In the US, 53% of households pay income tax. Some say wealthy people are leaving India, taking their investable income with them.
A year ago:Banks to Pay $1.1 Billion to Settle WhatsApp Probe - YouTube
How did the 8th Circuit get to that (clearly unconstitutional)?
Will ‘Chinese spies’ become the next pretense for invasion of privacy? The two pillars of the past 20 years, one is basically defunct and the other seems waning through counter-opinion/saviness of it being a pretense.
Campaining for a separate land for Sikhs in northern India, for this branded a ‘terrorist’ by India? India has longstanding concerns that within the large Indian population in Canada, they are conducting anti-India activities. Kalastan movement. Separatism.
The separatist government of Tibet has been in India for how many years now? Daramsala.Poland says it will no longer supply weapons to Ukraine | DW News - YouTube
Mystery on the street: Rising interst rates are BOOSTING risky corporate loan returns instead of hurting them.
Car prices are up a lot, labor for repairs is up, delayed repairs for lack of labor. Etc. So insurance is up like 20%.
Massive wave of MNA next 6 months.
“People are 'afraid to talk to people on places like WhatsApp and ... Signal.”
The collection of private messages. Expanding.
Newspapers in Japan now have seeds in them.
Everyone already knows. It's still a good place to move for people from some other countries.Temporary legal status offered to nearly half a million Venezuelan migrants - YouTube
Does this incentivize illegal crossings? Cartels, mules can use this news, it is said, to sell crossings to Latinos.
Does this incentivize illegal crossings? Cartels, mules can use this news, it is said, to sell crossings to Latinos.
How does this affect Walmart?
‘Down to Amazon and Uber Eats, until the drivers get robbed enough.’
Can the migration from the southern border into the US be called an ‘invasion.’? It's not an armed invasion of course, and it's not an army or a hostile attack. Perhaps the entry would have to be opposed by the local population and overcome to be an invasion? Are they 'entering as an enemy? It seems no.
Can it be considered an invasion simply on grounds of being ‘harmful’? It's not really harmful, I think.Mexico to deport Central American migrants waiting to enter U.S. as crossings spike - YouTube
Near-record numbers. Hundreds of thousands per year crossing the Darian. Hoping to reach the US.
Push factors: fleeing economic and political instability, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba. Dire conditions.
Pull factors: ample supply of jobs in many sectors. News that the backlogged system is overwhelmed and people in it are just being released.
Government of Venezuela does not accept US deportations.
"Actually, offering direct cash assistance is extremely effective in getting children (adolescents) to react to the support measures. It even reaches in the blind spots.
The front door, user access point, is way majority of malware is successful. Not the server or whatever. 75% through email. 35% of attacks bypass the network firewalls.
After word Musk's policy has been and is that starlink shan't work like 100km off Crimea so that Ukraine can't launch a ‘mini-Pearl Harbour-like’ attack on Crimea. This happened after he found out Ukraine wanted to do this, and he turned off starlink there secretly. According to a biographer.
Wtf are unconscious people not on video monitoring to prevent this known risk?
Commenter: “It's rare for a news station to take this stance and investigate...”Carrying firearms in public banned in Albuquerque - YouTube
30-day ban by governor. ('public health order'?) Sheriff says he won't enforce it. There was a public gathering protest where lots of people openly carried. Lawsuits came too, saying it was an unconstitutional ban.
Can the governor do anything again
st this type of resistence by the sheriff?
‘Great politicians say what they need to win. And then, once they’re elected, all bets are off. The goal of running for president is ... just to win.' - Shkreli
Lalisa collabing with French burlesque club Crazy Horse. and will be performing 5 exclusive shows from 28 to 30 September.
She just turned down a $40m contract renewal for BlackPink.
Illicit business practice. Sometimes tipped off before inspections. Covering parts of beaches with umbrellas and charging for chairs. However, the businesses say visitors want to rent the sun lounges. Some visitors complain about it, in terms of tourist reputation of the island.
The world kinda robs moments. - D Glover
Music awards. BlackPink won best group, IceSpice won best new female (and everyone said ‘best looking new female to men’). T Swift won album and best artist (runners up Doja and Shakira, who made a lot of headlines this year because of drama with her ex-boyfriend lyrics, and Karol G who has been filling statiums). There is a rock category, filled with bands who've been active for 20 to 40 years now. Lana won alternative. The only new thing was Peso Pluma I guess.
Song performances were all hiphop/latin pop.
Marijuana is legal in NY, at least the legal version (which provides dosage and ingredients info on the pack, since plants can contain harmful ingredients). However, it's very expensive, maybe the most regulated industry, so something costs $100 but you can buy from an illegal marijuana shop for $25.
Another issue is that the illegal shops packages are more attractive, but often use themes and images familiar to kids.
Housing as an instrument of profit versus a right.
More stores leaving California. Businesses have leases, and have to wait for the lease to complete.Inflation Re-Accelerates - YouTube
Energy Sector the culprit for everything this week. Auto workers on strike, EV transition plans by Biden, Airlines removing routes because of fuel prices.
Demand destruction price might be much higher than $4 (currently at $3.80).
However, weak growth in China.
Lots of movements in labor, labor strikes, as a result of the pandemic, said Bianco. But we were expecting a recession before the pandemic, right?
In 2021 PnG raised prices with much fanfare, warning, a white paper. Today, we just go ahead and raise prices.
Could be yearly a collab? Rev the hype machine, get it going again.
That you can only buy in stores, creating a mania outside retail outlets. That you can have and no one else can have, limited edition. ‘The plastic Blancpain’?
“Is Apple the next IBM?” - Animal Spirits, The Compound
“A seizure violates the 4th Amendment when an officer extends a traffic stop with tasks unrelated to the traffic mission, absent independent reasonable suspicion. ”So, if they pull you over for a tail light being out, once they've notified you of that and perhaps ticketed you, then that traffic stop should end. If they sit there and start fishing, ie throwing questions at the owner and stalling, that would be ‘extending the traffic stop unreasonably.’ Other tasks are unlawful if they add time to the stop and they are otherwise unsupported by independent reasonable suspicion of wrongdoing. It might be an issue entering things as evidence found during that extra time. - 9th Circuit Court of Appeals of CaliforniaEnd-to-End Encryption Will Be an Historical Footnote! - YouTube
Legal mass wiretapping? Under the banner of stopping CSE, of course. Currently, there are no other options.
Apple does content scanning on devices, using AI, as a compromise with 3letters. A12 Neural Engine, the same thing that was used to remove YouTube videos that mentioned the pandemic, violence, guns, etc, in iPhones since iPhone10 2017.Employers now must post salary ranges on all job listings across New York state - YouTube
Violation of privacy, claimed.Congress rejects a CBDC, the Fed's building one anyway - YouTube
Fed can do this without Congressional authorization because they don't depend on it for funding. Fed can 'write laws' and lots, while Congress is held by by opposition parties.Burford Capital Eyes 37,000% Return in Argentina Win - YouTube
Litigation funding. American lawyers (and trial?) against Argentinian government.
Monopolizing search by making deals with phone makers to be the default search.
Of all the things Google and other tech giants are bad for doing, this is one thing they are not bad for. Google Search is the best. When I can't get results using non-spy search engines, I go to Google and it is an excellent product. What would be nice would be competing excellent products, for different types of search (Google provides search for specific information queries of a certain type, and they also put answers in the results, stock graphs, etc, but they are useless for finding interesting and new things, blogs, bloggers, non-commercial things). Or they could take up the privacy issue with Google.
Listing things as ‘on sale’ without actually discounting the price. They raise the price to double the price for a short time, then discount it back to the original $20 price.
JCPenny, Foot Locker, Eddit Bauer facing lawsuits currently.
Reportedly, the financial damange is worse if they lose market share to competitors (monetary damange and bad PR), worse than if they didn't do this price
trick. Even if it's like $20m. Because these suits will likely disappear.
Cali has a regulation where the older price has to have been for 3 months, but reportedly this doesn't really prevent the stores.
Shenzhen. To get around US sanctions.
Violence won in Denmark?
India landed on the moon. Fourth nation to do so.
Target and other stores losing a lot of money to theft. “The common thread or the consistency in that end of the barbell, is these stores tend to be located in cities where they're not prosecuting this type of crime. And so people are going in, and they know that I can steal X amount of dollars. And as long as I steal that amount, and not anything more, I'm not going to get prosecuted.” They lock more stuff up, leading to a less quality shopping experience. ... Does the word ‘shrink’ mean ‘theft’? ... In Cali, thefts up to $950 not treated as felonies but rather as misdemeanors, since a year or two ago. Will the stores leave, when they have to report lower earnings? or are the earnings still that good?
The CEO of HP would be an interesting interview. A person who makes these kinds of decisions.
So what will the argument be when other countries want to do this?
First US president to be charged with a crime. Now not just Israel and African countries, but US also does this.
Rico-style case. Racketeering, a crime often charged against mobsters, against 19 defendants including Giuliani (who as a prosecuter also did Rico-cases, sometimes against lawyers). They're
being fingerprinted and mugshotted (photos that will make news around the world) and will be put into this big prison house where 6 people have died last year.
The aggreived party is the state of Georgia. Interfering in how a state conducts itself in its elections. 2020.
Trump called it ‘election interference.'
Less than a day and clothing designers started using the mug shot. When your president's are treated as criminals, do people as strongly avoid the possibllity that they could become criminals? (Speaking of the moral condemnation side of criminalizing, not the deprivation/suffering side.)
Campbell says two things happening ATM. Biden wants everyone to get new vaccine. And that the new strain, people with vaccines more likely to be affected than unaffected people.
A meetup on SM.
Return of folk music?
This song shot to popularity so fast.
It's be exhilarating to watch when it comes. Or to be a part of?
First time in years I think I've heard a song about SOMETHING. It's not deep, but at least it's about something at all.
Culture battle? (against government? For control of government?)
Her fans don't listen. They just watch her.
The yeild curve is still very inverted (not as much, but that's what typically happens, that when the recession comes the curve starts to steepen.
Mortgage rates risen way above 7%, high credit card rates, high auto rates, tightening lending standards. Inertia pointing to downside. Lags, you can't pin down when.
Employment prints right before a recession are often good, GDP too.
Claims are up (only a little but up), payrolls are slowing, the revisions are downward.
He's looking at the unemployment rate, which usually rises 50basis points from its low when a recession is coming.
J Powell buys flexibility.
$2.1t in excess savings in US households during pandemic period, due to stimulus. March there was $500b. June $190b. By October, all excess savings predicted to be spent, due to inflation.
The anchoring effect of the inflation target rate of 2%. That's why we can't just change to 2.5%. The economy would become a bit unanchored.
“The sacrifice ratio” - What an economy gives up to get inflation down. Usually you have to give up employment.
NFLX expected that with limiting password to one household, they'd increase subs, but subs decreased a little bit. Were people paying based on an account for several households, which wasn't worth the same money once it was reduced to one household?
Also, it's easy to sub, watch a bunch of series, and cancel the sub, and go to another streamer. Churn. It might not be about price, but rather just about what shows they have. Cable might be cheaper when compared to having 5 or 6 streaming services. Sports is a big consideration. But you can't get all the games from the same service. Amazon jas Thursday nights.
Estimated cost to US economy of Hollywood writers' strike is $5b.
Arrogance? A pretentcus hope for the need for more military?
EM XChina funds outperformed those with China, so there are more popping up.