Ghana bans foreigners from its gold trading market • FRANCE 24 English (youtube.com)
In favor of government monopoly.
Corporations can't offer guidance right now, and when this has happened before, analysts typically play it safe and downgrade a bit, just naturally or habitually. So downgrades may happen but not substantiated.
Netflix can offer guidance. It's not taking any hit or downgrade. Still growing it's ad revenue. Has free (ads) and paid versions, and reportedly make more on free version. They spend a lot on content.
They don't provide sub numbers anymore, possibly because they're not growing.
Stong Malaysia currency, strong Indonesia currency, strong Euro? Eastern European (they manufacture everything Europe consumers) countires are up while USD is down 8% since start of Q1. Nordics too, Sweden an oil producer.
Trump might be trying to temporarily weaken the dollar because of the debt.
WTO, hallowing out of heavy industry, manufacturing, construction.
65% don't have a college degree in the US. Don't bother me, go learn to code (Hows that working out for you?). Romney? Biden. Go make solar panels.
Regulatory arbitrage, China ships parts to Mexico and assembles them there to avoid US tariffs on China.
Paying for their own military means Europe will have to re-industrialize. This might be stimulative to their market (which is up, while US's is down).
1920's Radio Corporation of America was the hot stock, because ‘Everyone’s going to get a radio.' But it peaked in 1929, and only took out it's 1929 high in the 60s. Not only did everyone get a radio but a black and white TV too, and were getting color TVs, when it peaked again. Bianco.
1974 Nifty Fifty peak, ITT, Zerox, Kodak made highs. Went out of business, aquired by somebody else. But what they promised (Xerox in every office) did happen. Just that it was priced in and then the stock kept going (overpriced). It priced in the whole generation.
Electricy revolution in 1911 was just getting started, but it was already discounted, apparently, then, because that was the last time it outperformed the broader market. A century was priced in.
Herding behaviour. 7 stocks drive. Indexing becomes popular. The index outperforms most active managers, because managers don't want 45% of their portfolio in just 7 high PE stocks.
Secularly (broadly) declining interest rates, for the entire career of everyone (almost) working in finance.
‘Financial distress in a time when you can’t refinance.'
1000 people go to work every day whose only job is to regulate JP Morgan (their company). Bianco. Apollo has zero, so their cost basis is way scewed, and they can have lower rates, that's why private credit works, ‘I can beat anything JP Morgan offers you’, but then everyone jumps in and you can't easily get top credit in private credit, you have to go to second-best and third-best.
Why do companies IPO in 2025? They think they've already wrung out all the valuation and they want to stick in on everybody else. ‘Here you buy it at the inflated price.’ Bianco.
Private credits, everyone will be calling in their credits at the same time and borrowers will not even have money to invest in a great deal.