Investors adopting a sell-the-rally mentality: JPMorgan (youtube.com)
Retail investors pulled out of the market Thursday this week, more than any other day since JPM started monitoring this 10 years ago. Extreme pessimism. ... Also high level of people tapping their 401ks early. Put-call ratio spiked. Market is very thin, so if someone sells the price will go down.
Trueflation, using 2m consumer items, says 1.4% inflation currently.
In the US, illegal immigration over past years hasn't resulted in high employment for them, but it has inceased institutional businesses like healthcare and prisons. For each 10 migrants you might have 1 person working to house, care for, feed them. Wage inflation from this. All inflationary, with EBT cards. Italy had a similar profile with their immigration and their economy seems to be doing better now.
Polymarket now up 38% betting on a recession. Are they as accurate with economics as with politics? People bet hundreds of millions on the elections, but not on the economy.
Friedburg on All-in explained an idea people are talking about, like a 3-legged stool. One, tariffs, which would create inflation on products. Two, tax cuts in the US, and companies start to talk about maybe they can produce the product in the US instead. Three, reducing government spending, which also reduces government workers (30% of the GDP, a smaller number for actual employees and a larger number of people who are imployed indirectly through a result of government spending) so they go into the private workforce.
Gold has outperformed the S&P for the past 5 or 6 years. However, gold still there is no way to analyze it, study it and find out what the fair value of it is.