President Trump addresses stock market turmoil: Here's what to know (youtube.com)
‘Have to do is build a strong country. You can’t really watch the stock market. If you look at China, they have a 100-year perpective. We have a quarter. We go by quarters. And you can't go by that.' Reportedly, Trump is dismissing stock market losses as ‘pain for globalists, not his voter base.’
‘The ideal of the American people isn’t about low prices. It's about other things.' ?
‘And it’s largely about jobs. One conservative economist ... said to me, “Imagine rolling back the clock to 1990, and telling somebody in a small town in the American heartland, ‘Look, in the future your TV will cost 10 times less, but your children are going to have to move out of your town because there won’t be any work for them. Would you take that deal?'” He said 90% would not take that deal, but another question is can you get the jobs back.
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El-Erian's recession odds have gone from 10% to 20 or 30%. Tariffs, uncertainty dim 2025 outlook: Mohamed El-Erian (youtube.com) US economy still has structural strength. There are promises of regulation and tax cuts and possibility of low energy costs.
Unpredictability is not short term, it's a feature, and tarifs are secular, not cyclical, these are the two main concerns.
‘Complete upending in every single consensus trade.’ Stocks, bonds, currency.
‘The pain is worth the gain’ is maybe the new narrative from the White House.
USMC, to get that classification in the US trade war, you have to just have some US content in your product, so you import something from the US, fabricate it, and send it back, and currently to the admin it doesn't make sense to tariff that because it would be tariffing US producers. So producers might start having a bunch of different levers they can pull.
Question about, in a year, will tariffs create more US jobs and real wage growth?
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