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Vietnam. ‘We’ll go to 0 tariffs.' But they ship $15 to US for every $1 US ships to them. And a large part of theirs is Chinese goods transhipped to avoid tariffs. They do IP theft, like China.
US could face a debt downgrade. The debt ceiling might not get raised, becaues Democrats and some Republicans. Some Republicans are increasingly voting with Democrats versus emergency tariffs.
The bond market is saying the economy is going to weaken more and dominate the initial inflation shock we're gonna see from the tariff increases. There's no ability to pass on price shocks from the tariffs, because of a weakening economy. Rosenberg.
No one thinks there'll be a recssion, partly because the 2020-2021 recession didn't happen, because of Biden liquidity and AI bubble.
A recession impairs both earnings and the multiple.
For the bulls, what could cause them to become more bearish are continued treacherous behaviour longer than a month, earnings delerate more dramatically than they expect, and uptick in inflation.
Stock market down, now $7t from highs (of a month or two ago), Monday the 7th. But although it opened red, following the selloff in world markets (mentioned above), by close the favorites of the past couple years were green. I mean chips, Nvida, Amazon, Meta, Goog, JPM and big banks, Palantir, AT&T, and also renewable energy was green. Apple was very red though, Tesla was -10% and closed -3%.