Small caps could outperform by more than 100% in the next few years, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee (youtube.com)
Trump will enter office this time with a lot more knowledge on how to build a cabinet and a team, said Tom Lee. This has come up in conversations too. The mess with Tillerson and others. Trump likes to win, so maybe he'll be able to use a more winning strategy.
Margin debt hasn't really risen in the last 4 months, and the stock market is up, so we infer investers haven't been adding risk. And now we have earnings visibility and a dovish Fed and the election is behind. US and fundamentals seem bullish to Tom Lee.
Some people cannot see past that Kamala didn't get any primary votes. Some people cannot see past the behaviour of Donald Trump, and the bullying, and the felony. And some people can. Friedburg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next (youtube.com)
If you trust these legacy institutions in helping you get to a decision, you're gonna get tricked. Chamath
This defeat is on the entire Democratic Party (not just Harris as a bad candidate). They all supported the agenda of Biden and Harris. Democrats Manchen and Cinema suffered for opposing D budget agenda. Defacto open border, soft of crime, Soros, decarceral policies, proxy war with Putin. The Democrats have talked down to us, lectured, censored, insulted, gaslit, tried to cancel, tried to punish dissent with lawfare, turned Musk into an enemy, and Joe Rogan.
Recently California 70% voted for Prop 36 to reverse Prop 47 (made shoplifting basically legal).
Harris wouldn't say whether or not she supported prop 36. Does that show not that she's a bad candidate, but that the Democratic Party is just confused, doesn't know currently what to stand for, is trying to pull in support/votes from all kinds of conflicting sources.
As California perhaps turns sensible again (if they do. It is California after all), will Musk decide he could have actually waited it out in California?
Ari Fleischer tweeted who the Democratic Party now is. People making more than $100k (one of only a few groups she improved with), those who never attend religious services, those who say they have no religeon, college grads, post-grad degrees. ‘If these are the last people left in the room, the last thing they’re going to do is admit defeat.'
Chamath said he thinks the D won't tack (change how they are). I think they probably will if there isn't a third party.
Harris could not go on Joe Rogan because they knew it would embarass her so bad that she would lose votes. Value of the primary. Test the person to find who withstands testing best.
Food items, fast food, have doubled. Number one voter issue, with immigraiton/border.
Also, Harris couldn't criticize Joe Biden because he's the sitting president. But you can't defend him either, because he's so unpopular.
The Democrats had 3x the money for the presidential campaign ($1b). Buy versus earn, what does each produce? They also overwhelmingly had the legacy media advantage. They could call him nazi, fascist, traitor, agent of Putin, insurectionist, dictator, criminal. What effect does this have on their (both the party and the legacy media) integrity?
If R had a traditional, regular candidate, they couldn't have overcome the legacy media advantage, said Sacks. Also, if Trump had campaigned with Romney's or McConnel's message, he probably wouldn't have gone anywhere. He's tapped into something deep in the electorate. Looking back, he's the transformational figure in US politics, not Obama or whoever.
Young men are voting and they want to vote for something very different from women or old people. JCal
The Democrats used to be the party of free speech. Now they are pro censorship. The Republicans are free speech. D used to be anti-war. Now they're in foreign misadventures and partnerships with the military-industrial complex, and they embrace it. Was all this purposeful or accident?
Either way, we see how a politician can give up its rallying purposes to the other party.
A lot of people did and still say they just really don't trust the guy, Trump. They don't think, based on things he's said and done, how he's treated people, that he's a good guy. Even if they agree with a lot of Trump's policies.
With Trump, there is a concerted effort to lie. A need to suspend that judgement? Chamath. We could say though that that effort is a response to a person who has done harms or behaved unsociably in ways that are not really punishable by other means.
The Swamp Creatures came out of the woodwork and invaded Mar a Lago, Sacks reported. So the Maga Influencers should stay frosty, he said. Because all the previously neo-con idea espousers seem to be being outed on X so that they can't get near this presidency.
The A team are all running companies, Musk noted. They can't just join the cabinet. But they seem to all want to serve in a part-time, advisory capacity where they wouldn't have to divest all their assets etc.
Musk decided at one point that the election would come down to Pennsylvania and young men, and he focussed on that one thing, constantly on X speaking at rallies, speaking to Penn residents, young disaffected voters and getting them out. His pact built an infrastructure that rivalled the D one. The sweepstakes.
Chamath really didn't like that Obama went on in the home stretch and said objective lies, things Obama knows were not true, the abortion ban. Chamath never considered Obama a politician, that he wouldn't join the borg. He transcended politics, but now had brought himself down to the level of the average politician. But doesn't Obama's record in war, human rights, corporate and technology spying, mean more than the JFK swagger and idealistic semi-inclusive words in those days?
Trump should be taken seriously but not literally. Thiel in 2016? The difference between campaigning and governing.
RFK has never held an executive position before. He and others who participated in the election are important to keep his coalition, all those young voters and Democrats on side and part of the Trump party and Maga movement.
‘The low hanging fruit will save this country once we pluck it.’ Chamath
There is no administrative branch in the Constition, but the administrative branch, 3m people, rule the US, and only 3000 are appointed by the president. These 3m don't report to anyone. Nominally, they're supposed to report to the executive, but the president can't fire them. They just do whatever they want to do. We don't even know what they're doing. There's no way to find out. We can't vote them out and we can't fire them, and they have been at the forefront of opposing Trump. Can Trump bring this branch under democratic control? Sacks.
Saw a post, not sure if it's precise, of RFK saying I'm coming after Big Pharma. Usually, when we hear someone say something like that we warn them, fearing for their safety. And if it's just one person, that makes some sense. But if it's a team, Musk, RFK, DeSantis, etc, can they all just be wiped out? And if they put second in line people for all the roles, people just as competent?
National security picks signal direction of Trump’s foreign policy plans (youtube.com)
Anti-woke.
But Gabard? Maybe she won't pass Congress though.
Trump’s border czar to focus on Canadian side, says it “can’t be a gateway to terrorists” (youtube.com)