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The benefit of Ukraine war continuing, for Europe, is that US has to stay in Europe, when it seems Trump would prefer to pull out of Europe.
Ukrained would have to not join NATO ever, accept annexations Russia has done, and Ukraine would probably not agree to that.
Territorial swaps? Can argue that Putin didn't get all that he wanted.
‘The Europeans tend to cave all the time.’
‘Trump is ... destined to lose in Ukraine’ because Russia will continue, and Trump either has to be the president in office when Ukraine is lost (thanks to Biden, they analysts seem to say), or he has to make a deal with the Russians now, but he can't accept the terms of the Russians (NATO and annexations).
‘The imperative for [USA] to pivot to Asia is not going to go away.’
Trump would also like to get out of the Middle East. Are Europe and Middle East both places with not much economic prosperity prospects? However, Europe is the most mature place in the world, perhaps even more than Japan, when it comes to decisions of maturity, which we see in their laws protecting privacy etc. Even their attempts to take care of the climate, although they don't seem to be able to pay for their decisions through their own labor. They still have good cities and towns and high skill levels, good factories (those that remain) for high quality products, even despite having worn all this down with immigration. ... The Middle East, we have yet to see what global role they'll play. But maybe there will be a new resurgence with a different (from ours) philosophy.
The Middle East is peaceful because the US makes it peaceful, is the idea these days. The main issues right now are Iran and Israel. How much force can the Israel Lobby put on Trump to attack Iran?
Israel seems to look for more and more problems, some think.
Is the ceaesfire that Israel just signed an acknowledgement of defeat in Gaza. They said they'd decicively defeat Hamas, at least as an effective fighting force, but Hamas has reconstituted and is doing fine. Israel agrees to withdraw from Gaza and allow the Palestinians to go back to it, so giving up ethnic cleansing. Food, medicine, water, are now going to be transported into Gaza. The situation will not be much different from before Oct7.
‘The more problems [Israel] accumulates, the more it’s predisposition seems to be to look for evermore grandiose and violent solutions to those problems. There's already talk about war with Turkey...'
Violence is useful, big stick, but most of the problems we face are political problems, and there has to be a political solution. ... The Israelis just want to use the big stick, they're not interested in a political solution with the Palestinians or the Iranians. Point by Measheimer. Iran, therefore, could beat Israel by mastering political solutions with others. ‘The idea you can use military force and destroy Iran’s nuclear power forever is delusional.' ‘It’s not going to solve the problem.'
Israel wouldn't need a lobby if Israel was a strategic asset. Mearsheimer.
The Iranians wouldn't develop nuclear weapons if they didn't have these threats from the US and Israel. The Iranians won't get rid of their enrichment capabilities. But it is not that difficult to prevent Iran from building a bomb. M
Donald Trump is going to have his hands full [in the Middle East].
Why US doesn't put tariffs on Australia (steel and aluminum). How Will the World Navigate Trump’s Return? | Foreign Affairs Interview (youtube.com) America already has the best deal, free trade, no barriers to investment, big surplus. Could not improve, so putting tariffs on Australian exports would be self-defeating.
Is talking about military force in Greenland, Panama, Canada, a means to tell China and Russia it is OK if they take their claimed territories and then have things calm down?
Europe has been opportunistic for a very long time, in terms of military. And it has now woken up, thanks to Putin.
Without America there is no balance of power in Asia. There's no substitute, it's indispensible. Even those who pretend to be non-aligned know it.
Singapore decided long ago, and continues, to side militarily with the West, with the US, but on other matters it will not, such as the assertion by the West and the US that certain moral ideas gives them the right to interfere in other countries. In this, Indonesia and Singapore agree more with China.