The yeild curve is still very inverted (not as much, but that's what typically happens, that when the recession comes the curve starts to steepen.
Mortgage rates risen way above 7%, high credit card rates, high auto rates, tightening lending standards. Inertia pointing to downside. Lags, you can't pin down when.
Employment prints right before a recession are often good, GDP too.
Claims are up (only a little but up), payrolls are slowing, the revisions are downward.
He's looking at the unemployment rate, which usually rises 50basis points from its low when a recession is coming.
J Powell buys flexibility.
$2.1t in excess savings in US households during pandemic period, due to stimulus. March there was $500b. June $190b. By October, all excess savings predicted to be spent, due to inflation.
The anchoring effect of the inflation target rate of 2%. That's why we can't just change to 2.5%. The economy would become a bit unanchored.
“The sacrifice ratio” - What an economy gives up to get inflation down. Usually you have to give up employment.
NFLX expected that with limiting password to one household, they'd increase subs, but subs decreased a little bit. Were people paying based on an account for several households, which wasn't worth the same money once it was reduced to one household?
Also, it's easy to sub, watch a bunch of series, and cancel the sub, and go to another streamer. Churn. It might not be about price, but rather just about what shows they have. Cable might be cheaper when compared to having 5 or 6 streaming services. Sports is a big consideration. But you can't get all the games from the same service. Amazon jas Thursday nights.
Estimated cost to US economy of Hollywood writers' strike is $5b.
Arrogance? A pretentcus hope for the need for more military?
EM XChina funds outperformed those with China, so there are more popping up.
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