‘[T]the real rate of interest, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines.’ - Ackman
More people moving out of Austin than in, first time. Some are moving from Texas to Cali. Although 3x that amount are moving Cali to Texas. House prices in Austin are up, so a house might cost the same in SF or Austin now, and taxes are different (Cali has prop13 to protect against high prices(?). Austin still has no income tax though.
The last Fed hike and then a cut is actually bearish.
Vol only works as in indicator, when it's high, extreme.
Pfizer to discontinue twice-daily weight loss pill due to high rates of adverse side effects - YouTubePharma is the biggest advertiser, because they want to be able to shape news coverage, and they influence news coverage, because they're the biggest advertiser.
The rules of TV entertainment news are pretty harsh.
Nov a buy-everything market, stocks and bonds.
Last 10 years Tech has compounded at 16%, non-tech at 6%. Matches earnings for these two. We're back on trendline for Tech versus non-tech.
U.S. oil production is a 'real problem for OPEC', says top energy analyst Paul Sankey - YouTubeSaudi will decide.
Bitcoin doesn't have a lot of buyers at the bottom. When it gets high it gets a lot of buyers.
The Fed has 'basically become a giant hedge fund', says former World Bank President David Malpass - YouTubeIt borrows at 5.4% from banks and dumps it into government bonds, so govtthinks its better off than it is, which encourages it to be short when rates were zero. It's a risk for USD.
A floating rate loan from banks to the Fed. Banks can get squeezed out for this. We're relying on private equity. I banks weren't doing this loan to the Fed, banks could consider small business loans and things that are thought to grow the economy. All the major Central Banks are doing this. Allocating capital to government will slow growth, thinks Malpass.
Not balanced. Small borrowers (who would like to borrow at floating rate) have to borrow at short end. Wealthy can borrow at long end.
(There's no money printing. It's all money borrowing.) - David Malpass
Moody’s cut China’s credit outlook to negative on rising debt risks - YouTube‘Fed is paying people not to take risk.’
Citi is cutting ‘5 layers of management’. How many layers were there?
‘The same factors that delivered better than expected growth still intact.' - Julia Coronado
Better productivity, better labor supply. Fed has ammo and can cut rates 100bps. If we uninvert the yield curve that can be a positive tailwind for growth in the second half. ‘We’re in the soft landing' and there's another cycle to come.
But there are lags in monetary policy, rates are very high, money is tight and could start to bite. Housing in deep freeze.
Trade settlement going from 3 days to 1 day in US. It guarantees you got the things you bought, sooner. It's guaranteed by someone in the middle for now 1 day. ‘Counter party risk.’ But banks don't get to keep that spread for 3 days now.
Netflix released their numbers, in order to look good?