Berkshire is holding record cash, can't seem to find anything they value buying. They have it in short term security and buybacks.

Is there just a lot of money nowadays and a big investor is less useful? For example, all the new companies get bought at too-high prices, more fail than Buffet's traditional model (or even a model of overall viability), but some have success?

The economy was supposed to be much weaker. It's not. That's why when the market moves, the marrative shifts to fit that price action. - Misra

Fundamentals are holding up in Qs. Tax loss harvesting occurs everywhere except the megacaps. Buybacks will be strongest in megacaps. Megacaps have least sensitivity to cost of borrowing.

Retail traders aren't trading as much. Not great for RobinHood, Schwab, who had been pushed to highs. Can they build a base of wealthier, long term investors who want to use their product? Retailers have learned it's tough to earn on the market, and that this can eat away at their returns.

118 day Hollywood writers strike over (tentative deal still has to be signed). The impact of the strike will be seen rolling. Shows that they didn't write were put off, so will be shown later, next year. How will the industry be on the other side of this? There's a question about if you strike too much there may not be any place to strike from. Writers will get bonuses for hit series though now.

Disney cut back production costs $27b to $2b, so the cost of several projects. Others doing the same. End of content bubble. It's hard to screw up sports, some say, but you gotta figure out how to do it.

Disney parks are more expensive now so sort of target more affluent customers.

European gas inventories are almost 100% full.

Berkshires costs are up 40%.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvE9hsCb4V0

Same quarter or quarter before Berkshire moved stocks.

Buffet's taxes were stolen and leaked.

This was done by ProPublica, whose business model seems to be significantly just going after wealthy people who have made money (legally). Buffet has a long resume.

More tech layoffs announced.

China. Visitors there need WeChat and DiDi (WeChat pay requires Chinese bank account) to do simple things like pay for taxis (report someone had to pay 100yuan instead of 30 because the driver didn't have change. They had to go to Chinese bank to open an account for WeChat, which required a Chinese phone number, so they had to acquire that from a Chinese telecom, which required a Chinese ID number. Because they were foreign passport holders, they had to buy a 1-year telecom package.

Some hotels reject foreign guests unless they're registered with the public security beaureau.

Canton Fair: 80% Drop in EU/US Buyers. Instead, new customers are from Belt and Road countries.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1FkCGSDhPU

Unions aren’t about money to the workers, they're about control, said Ron Baron. He said the TSLA stock went down yesterday because Biden said should unionize, Tesla. The other automakers have unions. It's true that there's little way for a government/large organization to influence a mass of individual workers but can deal with a small committee that controls those workers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or1JV2MImyg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtxizfEdc

Rating stays the same at AAA. This is outlook. The rating doesn't have to do with the economy or workers or productivity. The issue is politicians.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KxWeupa6U0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LThIM974gjc

Costco made new highs

Walmart. Target, after plummeting during the year, has been flat since September. The difference is Walmart sells groceries (and US has been in inflation). Anecdotally, someone also said Walmart loves lowering prices and Target hates doing so. Walmart consumables, Target discretionary.

There was a big rally November 14, basically everything green. Russel was up like 4.5% while other indexes were up like 2 or less. Smaller names had big jumps in stock price, while the most famous tech names were just regular up days.

Ford lost $62k on each EV it sold last quarter. Lucid lost $227k per car sold last quarter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnjjmnivQnc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJeMmRV7B-0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEKPUARYckc

Might be some point here about acoutability being proveable in AI and less so in people.

Possible white-collar recession

Airlines have ‘become banks’, selling airmiles to CCs. SWA announced their points will be worth less next year. Lots of points out there.

Right now, domestic travel is down. Still lots of international.

Inflation decrementing at 20basis points per month. Middle of 2024 core CPE might be 2.7 or 2.8 with Fed funds at 5.5. Fed might think it's oversteering.

“Stock pickers paradise” - BofA

“Delinquincies are just coming back to normal after the pandemic.”

Rates. Went from ‘almost too accomodative’ 0% to 5%. Which is different from like 3% to 8%. Also consumers and corporates prepared for higher rates, and locked in obligations at low rates.

Argentina, if it changes to dollars, it needs how many actual dollar bills in the country? It currently has a shortage. Is tying its economy to the US economy a good thing? In future it will be constricted in using monetary policy to buffer against changes in the economy.

Lebanon did incremental rollout of dollarization, starting with certain sectors or businesses.

Homebuilders still doing well, although DIYers down. The pros. Partly because no one is buying new homes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuAy0TFQOAk

‘I understand his animus towards Bill Gates for shorting his stock, because that really was a move to try to shut the company down. I don’t understand the same animus towards advertisers who decide to no longer advertise on X because they don't like what's there and they don't want their brand associated with that.' - CNBC host

‘It’s a very bad choice.' Musk on the 2024 election prospects, a sentiment agreed with by many. No one is impressed really with any candidate (perhaps in the general population, because their rallies seem to have supporters).

Auto dealer inventory piling up, discounts will be there.

People are paying a lot for house and vehicle, but that has an easy fix, which is monetory policy. - Tom Lee