Broadly, inflation is still going down. But housing is up, headline at 3.1% instead of expected 2%.
WM CEO James Fish: We always raise prices because there is always some type of inflation - YouTubeCredit squeeze 2024. Less cash in banks becaues it's in money market funds, and isn't available for loans. Savings from pandemic government measures are spent. Auto, credit card loans at 20%, sapping savings.
How much debt expense US has, and might start to think longer term interest rates should go up. - Gundlach
Economy is more vulnerable under rising rate than falling rate regime. Under a falling regime, companies in trouble might have to pay more on a spread basis, they're paying lower interest rates. They can refinance and take money out and reduce their interest expense, which prevents defaults and supports risk assets.
Rising rates, maybe those companies will have to default.
The 2-year is telling us we'll get 100bps of cuts within 2 years. Gundlach
MSCI Cuts Swath of Chinese Stocks From Indexes as Market Slumps - YouTubeNvidia briefly overtakes Alphabet as third-largest company by market cap - YouTubeJapan Slips Into Recession, Clouding Central Bank Rate Path - YouTube“$600 Million” - Jeff Bezos Strategic Move to Miami - YouTubeSeattle to Miami. Will save from Washington States's new capital gains tax.
Money is moving into the same sectors (tech). 25% last quarter. Concentrated.
Misery Index (has been worse 80% of time since 70s)
ppi vs cpi (have a lot of components, and have to look at the trajectory of each of those components)
household net worth is in the 96th percentile
cost of capital (not higher than 2009 or 2012) (business consideration)
What will the terminal rate be, rather than when Fed will cut. When their costs will come in for longterm R&D.
What we're hearing from earnings, and what the CEOs are saying (they're slowing down in labor practices). How to use AI and supply chains (haven't been that bad considering shipping prices).
Hardest year to have a macro outlook - Drukenmiller. Not the hardest, always difficult - E Burton
How Ghost Kitchens Went From $1 Trillion Hype To A Struggling Business Model - YouTubeLithium prices plummet on slowing EV demand - YouTubeCanada giving Ukraine over 800 drones worth $95 million | Power & Politics - YouTubeMade in Canada.
(Not new money. Part of $500m Trudeau said last year. Total amount to Ukraine like 2.4b.)
Company behind Stanley tumblers faces lawsuits over lead - YouTube