China stock market has fallen near it's earlier bottom. They reported 5% growth, ‘hitting' the government's target. Doubts. If they stimulate their yuan will depreciate, and they don't want a weaker exchange rate. China faces a lot of headwinds, and Xi doesn't really believe in the free market. State owned enterprise valuations. It would be so interesting to gets news about and follow events in China, but there is no such information made public. They buy 12m barrels every day, 8bcf of LNG every day, 40% of their food every day, and they have to buy it in dollars. WIlling global trading partners. CEOs there are moving their supply chains out of China, the majority, reportedly.
They have 100m vacant apartments and condos. $57t in banking assets, $2t in banking equity. Local financing market $13t, 90% of the market is in default (?). Estimates of $4t in real estate losses.
Everyone very pessimistic on Europe. They've saved their stimulus, though, and debt a lot of it is floating rate, and so they've already suffered the shock of rates. Also, they've already had an energy shock.
Google pulls back on Moonshots - YouTubeS&P new high. Almost always when that happens, 12 months later you're up. This is market behaviour, not random (but not necesarily related) historical data, Compound said. 746 days since last new high.
Netflix up 20% in past 3 months, recently boosted by deal with exclusive WWE and surprisingly higher subs. They have no M&A intrigue. No activists. No linear decline. They don't have to focus on sports. Their TV shows have done well, not so much for films so far. They made 100 new series in 2023. Other streamers did like 10 or 15. Other platforms are now selling on to Netflix.
Stock picking. Have to get the fundamentals right finally this year, say some. Because NVDA and APPl are both the same multiple, but Nvidia is making huge revenue percentage increases and is expected to continue, while Apple did 5% increase. Earnings reports to follow will show what the company's fundamentals are doing. Texas Instruments was quick to meet supply chains and so is now in like 4 quarters of losses, while other companies this is still or never to come.
United Airlines CEO publicly criticizing Boeing, and mentioned they only have one other option (Airbus). Limitation of duopoly producers.
FTC scrutinizes megacap's AI deals - YouTubeEssentially bankrolling their own businesses.
Comes back to them through credit for services
2/3 of startups run out of cash in 2024/25 or something, so lots will sort of fold, freeing up talent to join other new projects. It's mostly the junior devs who are being replaced by AI reportedly.
U.K. suspends trade negotiations with Canada - YouTubeUK wants more access to Canadian cheese and Canada isn't going to give it. It's a supply managed protected sector (policy now but law is in congress right now to possibly pass).
Mass EV adoption is a lot harder than early adoption, says former Ford CEO Mark Fields - YouTubeSpot bitcoin ETFs move away from original ideals of crypto, Beam CEO argues - YouTubeFinancial institutions are getting more influence over crypto. The core promise of crypto was that people are in control of their money. So far there are no products that uphold the values of crypto at the same time as being as easy as buying an ETF. Centralizing.
Even if the institutions are negative in terms of trading power for value, structurally they add liquidity to bitcoin and allow it to function better.