Maybe people aren't just putting it all in index funds anymore, because some stocks and sectors are making highs and other are making lows.
'There's too much money. They're buying things before they even get cheap. I don't know what we do about that.' Josh Brown
iPhones are a replacement business as much as they used to be a growth business. Still selling phones. Said JB, that every year one of 4 people in his house is getting a phone, replacement style. ‘That’s just how it is.'
These companies (Microsoft, Apple, etc), they're not ‘growth companies anymore. They’re decent growers but all of a sudden started to trade at hefty growth-like multiples. And earnings were as always a nice reality-check that earnings were just OK. - Boockvar
Everyone didn't want to miss the the-Fed-is-done trade. But now OK the Fed is almost done maybe, but the 10 year is now trading at 4.20. And the 30-year mortgage rate, which is priced off the 10 year, according to bank rate, is at the highest level since 2000. - Boockvar
Consumer still strong.
We could have 0 or negative inflation for a while anyway, suggested Tom Lee as just a possibility, given house prices. Everyone on CNBC panel surprised by this.
Growth is strenthening, x energy S&P up for the quarter 3% the first time in six quarters. If only one more hike the market can absorb that maybe. Interest rates could stabilize and then the cash gets put to work.
Rates could move higher. All the treasury buyers have become sellers (the Fed, Japan, China). Global demand for treasuries has shifted from hot to cold. Stocks are doing all the right things. Consumer and corporate balance sheets are considered healthy given the amount of inflation. Most economists on Wall Street have dialed back their recession forcasts. Services starting to weaken (?because people are going back to school?) - Subramanian
When Fed reaches peak rates, they usually hold for 6 or 7 months. We've just reached what may be peak.
2024 as a year of tepid recovery. Moderate growth year, earnings recovery due to circumstances (prolonged rates reduce demand for labor) . ... Overall trend is good for bonds and good for stocks. - Bailin
There is still vast demand in China. Scale.
Second-hand markets. Treasures, something special, they generally find it. And something they can afford. And creates social value (non-profit thrift store).
The stuff that comes in, you can get a tax-credit now, reportedly.
They sort it and put some online, and some in the store. They go through every single item. Online store:
Maybe markets dominated right now by momentum traders rather than fundamentals traders/investors, because after good earnings, DHI went up like 4% and then dropped to -3%.
Bonds might drift up to 5%. "And ironically it might be because the Fed has backed off of tightening that the bond market is starting to get nervous. If the Fed's not going to fight the inflation fight, the bond market will, by selling off bonds.
We were at ‘the Fed’s almost done,' but after the Bank of Japan move and widening yield curve control,' all of a sudden the yield of the 10-year spikes. The rise now of higher interest rates. Longer period of time with higher rates, and every day someone's getting caught by it and can't make their business loan which came due. How does the stock market eventually react to this longer higher rates? - Bookvar
The I-dont-want-to-miss-the-Fed-is-done-hiking rally. Days after Fed did its last 75bps hike, the market bottomed. The dollar bottomed also. After that there was AI and whatever.
For a CEO, ‘My business starts to slow. Let me slow down the hiring and wait to see how things go.’ Then 3 months go by and business is not getting better, and actually its ticking down. Then you have to make a decision, well, my profit margins are falling, sales are falling. Then I may start laying off people. Then unemployment starts to tick up. Then we don't know if it cascades or not.
In Tech they overhired, so they understandably made that decision. What if it happens after Revenge Travel?
Bank managers, you don't want to be the one that makes a bad loan in this environment.
Compounding deleveraging, a freezing in credit.
China isn't bailing out Country Garden, Evergrande. Allowing developers, who are the main vulnerable part (not buyers of homes, although they will experience decilne in net worth with their assets), allowing them to fail. China doesn't want people to be dependent on the State, they haven't sent out cheques, although they call themselves ‘communist.’
They still have the effects of what the government did to them during the pandemic, nailing them into their homes.
Smartphone market is shrinking. Everyone is looking for a bottom in PCs. Those two take the most semiconductors. Autos.
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