Won't see Buy and Hold in stocks again until around 2030, say some. Bear market rally since December. Rotating.

Home buying demand is low numerically but supply is lower. Bidding wars have returned, despite high mortgage rates. Prices won't go down, but number of homes sold will go down.

Vast majority of home owners have low rates from before. Won't be selling, except to move. Some people have adjustable rate mortgages, so those will come up in the next couple years.

Migration to low-tax states like Arizona is a long-term trend.

Rents expected to go down, though, because rental until construction is coming online.

Household construction lower, as more people live in basements.

So called ‘excess savings’ will run out by Fall.

Current valuations ‘make no sense.' Carvana at $9b valuation, twice Macy's. Short interest at 40%. Microsoft launched an AI chatbot or something and added like $150b in market cap.

Without optimism, you might look at the growing debt burden and say that collapse is coming.

James Gormon (MorganStanley) thinks M&A and trading is starting to bottom out.

Start to get used to the new rates. Underwrite risk and new opportunities and cost of capital.

IPOs. A few coming soon, and more in the next year. The soon ones are strong companies with good stories, that are able to come out now. Demand for them, and then other companies will say it's an exciting time to come out.

NASDAQ 100 will do a rules-based reweighting. 5% of the components can't represent more than 50% of the AUM. They'll cap some companies. They've done this before.


NFLX is a growth story, and they posted slightly negative guidance for the first time. They did a bunch of things (ads, password sharing) over the past year, and those worked, but now no more things. They noted TikTok as a negative for engagement in their content, the creator economy content. With almost no cost, people can create content. That was the moat before, cost. Hyper-focussed content. Gaming also. And Netflix is considered the best positioned media stock right now, because it has massive content and will be less affected by writers/actors strike.


During the pandemic no one cared about financing costs, 1%, 2%. Now that money has a cost people are going to care about this, and buy a new car rather than used.

The average car on the road is 13 years old.


Most provinces now at $15CAD ($11USD) minimum wage. Some a bit lower. Landlord is paying how much? Higher interest rates sometimes higher rates drive down prices (house prices) and sometimes up (mortgage costs).


Investors starting to rotate out of big 7 into stocks that have been out of favor, taking profits and buying things with better valuations.


“The big question for Netflix is when revenue per subscriber goes up”


Past inflation has been controlled by the Fed, but this is the first time so much has been done Fiscally, just giving everyone money, so the models won't work the same.


Lots of people on CNBC say to trim tech (big 7, overall already up almost 100% this year, although everyone says they're still the best companies). Because it's valuation is high PE, and it's ‘priced to perfection’ and any negative company news could make for a pullback, whereas there are undervalued things which are better, and there are defensive plays, and there still might be a pullback (although sentiment is that there won't), and there still might be a recession but they don't know when maybe second half.


Tom Lee sounded a little bearish for the first time (since he did it briefly last December or something). Maybe industrials and financials in addition to Tech. S&P is up 13% meaning it's overbought, usually a sign of a strong market but also that it could react strongly to negative news. However, lots of people are calling this a top (so a pullback might be shallow).