• "Beijing has been quite stunned at the extent of the cooperation between Europe and America on sanctions against America. The calculation ... before the invasion was that Europe and America would be divided, and America would slap a few sanctions on but it wouldn't really be game-changing ..." - John Lee (Hudson Inst)

    "The Chinese now realize that if there's any kind of war, for example over Taiwan, the high likelihood is that the Americans would get global cooperation to start imposing extremely harsh particularly financial sanctions on the Chinese, and that would devastate the Chinese economy"

    Only the Americans tend to do war well over more than one of the 4 domains (land sea air cyber). China and Russia have high impressive numbers in military costs and equipment but haven't really invested that much in logistics and organization and coordination across domains. So its great for them to have all these weapons but if they can't actually use them in a coordinated way ...

    Unlike Russia, China still seeks to be known as a legitimate or respected leader. You can't do that just by material power alone. It would have to get other country's to accept its ownership over Taiwan for that, it couldn't just start bombing Taiwan. So the Chinese are now thinking How do we do that?

    The Covid19 pandemic began a process of diversification away from China. And factoring in the real political risk of being so reliant on China.
    Russia is a massive surplus producer and exporter of food stuffs and energy. China is the world's largest importer of all of that, especially for the imports necessary to grow food. The sanctions placed on Russia if placed on China would lead to a de-industrialization of the entire Chinese system in under a year, according to Ziehan.

    Boycotts. Shareholders, consumers can take a stand to change corporate policy. That's a surprise to China, according to Zeihan.

  • Kissinger, Nixon, anyone?

  • "It has been proven time and again that sanctions are a boomerang and a double-edged sword, to politicize, instrumentalize and weaponize the global economy, and to willfully impose sanctions by taking advantage of one's dominant status ... will only end up hurting one's own interest, as well as the interests of others, and inflict suffering on people around the world." - Xi speaking at BRICS summit

  • Iran could teach Russia how to evade sanctions and 'money launder', according to an opinion piece in the WSJ (Dubowitz and Zweig)

    Of Tehran could serve as Russia's broker, taking a cut of the "illicit" trade it facilitates on Russia's behalf.

    Iran has a 'money laundering' architecture, a system they could make available to others.

    US/West kicked Iran of Swift, reduced their oil sales from 2.5b barrels to a few hundred thousand. So Iran has dealt with harsher sanctions than Russia (which still sells gas to Europe and has some institutions on Swift reportedly).

  • At minimum, expected 3-5% reduction in Russian economy due to sanctions

  • 2008 Russia takes a piece of Georgia, sanctions were pretty limited

    2014 takes two pieces of Ukraine, a few years later he's hosting the World Cup and European leaders are coming to visit him there

    2016 elections, Obama's like I don't want to deal with that right now

    So the economic sanctions now are maybe more than Russia expected

    - View by Ian Bremmer

  • China announces sanctions on seven Americans, including HRW's Sophie Richardson

    China's foreign ministry spokesperson also referred to American 'preaching' and 'arrogance.'

  • West's continued use of sanctions has less effect, according to Prof at U of South-Eastern Norway Glenn Diesen

    ... as the international system becomes more multi-polar. For example, Belarus, recently sanctioned by the EU for its human rights violations (following their grounding of a plane to arrest a Belarussian blogger), has other options in Russia. The US also sanctioned Myanmar following the coup, but they also have access to China and Russia.

    The hope with sanctions is that by undermining the whole economy of a country the population made to suffer will put pressure on their government to change. It is considered by some to have worked on Iran following the first Gulf War. There are also economic consequences in other countries including the one doing the sanctioning, such as in the US where the price of gas is driven up in line with sanctions on Iran. Thereby, such sanctions can end up helping other countries that may not be allies. It can also lead to negative consequences for the sanctioning country when it imposes sanctions on other countries for things it also does but expects to not be criticized for (many have pointed out that the US and EU also grounded a plane in 2014 to try to aprehend Edward Snowden - Austria grounded the plane from its airspace).

    The use of longlasting or permanent sanctions, especially when the sanctioned country has little ability to make concessions, it just leads to the sanctioned country learning to live without the countries that imposes the sanctions, according to Diesen.

    Anti-Russian sanctions following Crimea and Ukraine in 2014 didn't lead to Russia capitulating to the West or destroying the Russian economy. Russia rewired its economy to the East, forming a strategic partnership with China, reducing its vulnerability by cutting exposure to Western industries, tech, transportation corridors, banks, payment systems. Same with Iran. And now Belarus.

    #Belarus #Russia #Sanctions 
  • Nord Stream 2 almost finished, despite US sanctions along the way

    The U.S. will have a hard time competing with Russian gas anyway, in serving Europe. Russian gas is cheaper and is said to be greener.