• Mar, 2024
  • Mar 22, 2024
  • The plastic industry knowingly pushed recycling myth for decades, new report finds - YouTube
    For them, it was a way to fend off regulation and to keep selling more plastic.

    China might not have a next step of what to do. They might not know what to do. Except to copy US doing economically, technologically, match military, don't bother doing what US does around the world, run this Western model with single party state, and the West will eventually become economically incapable, and maybe emulate the Chinese model. China needs oppression because it doesn't have a goal it can get people to focus on. A lack of vision. Government officials don't really know what their job is. There's no real agenda.

    So much of the money for Belt and Road (like in Pakistan) just went into nothing or beaurocracy, but it's not even clear who you bribed. China trying to offshore. It's not sure what to invest in in China.
    The greatest benefit so foar of B&R has been easier trade with Europe, which is useless in a great power struggle with the US.
    They didn't have a clearly better investment alternative. Maybe in even better automation. Maybe really trying with a select country like Philippines (a different island from US's).
  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 15, 2024
  • US using bases in Japan (allowing US to use its jets) was key in wargames playing out scenerios for a Chinese invasion attempt upon Taiwan.

    U.S., other countries removing embassy staff from Haiti as violence worsens | Power & Politics - YouTube


  • Mar, 2024
  • Mar 11, 2024
  • Mass Relocation Of UN Staff From New York To Nairobi Raises Eyebrows - YouTube


  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 22, 2024
  • Critical documents expected to arrive in mail just vanish - YouTube

    Canadian military accepting less than 1% of permanent residents who apply - YouTube
    #Canada #Immigration

    The Javers Files: Apple Vision Pro in Moscow - YouTube
    It's not even available in UK and other countries where it is allowed by Apple. It does sell for like 50% more though in Russia.
    Parallel import. Apple products have been not sold in Russia by Apple for 2 years, a protest against the Ukraine invasion and war. However, they're still available there to buy.
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 13, 2024
  • There is some small amount of immigration from Africa to China. China is doing some port businesses in Africa.
    15 or 20m people could sometime migrate to China, maybe as brides.

    Frontline report: US drone strike in Baghdad kills Iran-backed militia leader | BBC News - YouTube
    In the capitol, killing targets. 930pm, 3 explosions. People are out on the street, cafes and restuarants are open. Calls for retaliation. ‘Blood for blood.’ ‘Threat to safety and security in the country.’ ‘Inevitable retaliation.’
    Do US authorities want Iraq to attack Americans in America? and thus provoke Americans to support a serious war against the Middle East?

    War on border Hezbolah/Lebanon is intensifying. Hezbolah is a real army, great intelligence, experience in Syria, not like Hamas.

    ‘That cannot be a license to dehumanize others.’ Blinken trying to get a ceasefire in Gaza, against strong talk by Netanyahu. ‘Gaza is the key to stabilizing the middle east,’ said a journalist.
  • Feb, 2024
  • Feb 05, 2024
  • R and Uk are using drones and artillary. No one needs air supremacy, just don't let the other person have it.

    U.S. airstrikes hit Iraq, Syria in retaliation for fatal drone attack in Jordan - YouTube
    85 targets. Residential buildings damaged, 16 people killed. Violating their sovereignty, say the 2 states.
    ‘The beginning of our response.' ‘Our.’

    Nearly half of U.S. cities are seeing population decline, study shows - YouTube
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 31, 2024
  • https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/98823/

    White House blames deadly attack on U.S. troops in Jordan on Iran-backed group - YouTube
    If you took bets from citizens whether it was a by-the-book-how-to-start-a-war tactical autoattack, or a genuine ‘exactly what the headline says’ attack, what odds would they take? Another survey on how many actually care.
    #Integrity
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 26, 2024
  • 97 men for every 100 women, in USA, and in China 104 men for every 100 women, according to Google. Shouldn't we start a massive dating program? However, you should note that its because the oldest demog has more women. if you look at age 30 you might see closer to parity.

    Joe Rogan tells Canada to vote for Pierre Poilievre - YouTube
    Never noticed any interest among top USA voices in Canadian politics before.

    American mercenaries hired by UAE to kill in Yemen | BBC News - YouTube


  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 22, 2024
  • There are Only Four Free Countries Left - YouTube
    Property rights, judicial effectiveness, government integrity, tax burden and fiscal health, these things went down in a lot of Western countries.

    U.S., U.K. launch strikes against Houthis in Yemen - YouTube

    Pakistan launches retaliatory strikes into Iran | BBC News - YouTube
    2 days ago, Iran used ‘specifically targeted’ strikes, landing missiles in a village on the border, ‘targeting anti-Iran groups’.
    Pakistan has now done a similar strike, against ‘terrorists’ who base themsleves in ‘ungoverned spaces inside Iran.' Pakistan said they acted now because they had ‘credible intelligence of impending large scale terrorist activities by these so called Sarmachars.’ #terrorism

    More education, combined with more journalism, would produce lots of Mileis

    5 Iranian Revolutionary Guards killed in Israeli strike on Damascus, state media reports - YouTube
    #Syria
  • Jan, 2024
  • Jan 08, 2024
  • China calls for global unity amid Western exodus | DW Business Special - YouTube
    Soft power

    Has Russia actually been winning the war in Ukraine (despite what our media says)? Putin's successful stance against the West in Ukraine, has it made him more influential throughout the global south and BRICS? Man with a plan? - Sacks #Putin

    Will Project Ukriane fall apart this year?

    Is the Global South now more resisting the Collective West? Is the Global South using Russia as a proxy against the West? As a way to dethrone US hegemony all over the world? - Fiona Hill

    Cali went from a $70b surplus to now a $70b deficit.

    Ukraine may only have 20m people in the country now. 10m fled maybe. 500k soldiers have lost their lives.

    Germany econonmy, based on cheap Russian gas, German car economy disrupted by Chinese cars, German costs going up while Chinese costs are going down.


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 29, 2023
  • New task force aims to combat Red Sea attacks | WGOW Shipping on Live Now Fox - YouTube

    More people renounced US citizenship in the first 3 quarters of last year than the entire year before. (But qualified by pandemic restrictions.)

    China Halts Exports of Some Rare-Earth Processing Technologies - YouTube

    Uzbekistan is a good place to invest, it's now been said. Tamerlane, tourist sights, natural resources. Colombia for natural resources. Indonesia seems to be opening up to trade.

    Texas flying migrants to Chicago now.

    Analyst discusses impact of geopolitics on food security - YouTube
    Black sea region wheat, India restricting movement. India's sugar restrictios have affected Indonesia, Bangledes and SA. More motivation for deglobalizaiton?
    Key staple commodities (small price disruption can cause food insecurity): rice, sugar. Less so for onions.

    Is China driving its economy towards consumption rather than investment?

    Is BRICS (BRICS plus in 2025) a club for talking? or will they do something together. Countries that are opposed to the West and the dollar.

    Mediation. Turkey in Ukraine war. Qatar in Gaza fighting.
  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 19, 2023
  • Zelenski encuentra escaso entusiasmo en el Congreso para la ayuda a Ucrania | EL PAÍS - YouTube

    Guyanese president speaks out after Venezuela makes claim on oil-rich region of his country - YouTube

    Business that China might lose: Mid to high level tech, Thailand. Up and coming assembly turning into a tech player, Vietnam. Sheer mass, Indonesia.

    Argenitina is young, has good land.

    ‘When you invent a better way, you make the whole world richer.’ Bezos

    Medio millón de migrantes han cruzado la peligrosa selva de Darién este año - YouTube

    Yemen Escalates Attacks against Commercial Shipping | Missile Strikes and Seizures - YouTube

    Shippers could face price increases following Red Sea attacks, says Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen - YouTube
    By Iranian-backed militants, to show support for Hamas, according to CNBC.

    Yemen Announces a Blockade of Shipping to Israel | How Will Navies Respond & Global Shipping React? - YouTube

    San Francisco now at 35% office vacancy rate, highest ever recorded: data - YouTube


  • Dec, 2023
  • Dec 12, 2023
  • Contenido explícito creado con IA de compañeras de clase - YouTube
  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 30, 2023

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZkZDdGYcu0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCh043-gLIM

  • Nov, 2023
  • Nov 04, 2023

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2oW21ac-Lk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2thow6lTRI

    Will the country shut down to travel for a day? due to mining protests.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qke7F_7DZE

    Is it because no one believes anything issuing from that source, that they use quotation marks for their statements?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKQ2_YVGAUg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pz0arxLaoo

  • Oct, 2023
  • Oct 17, 2023

  • Someone commented in Texas they can get housing approved in 3 months (building new homes). It's 3 years in Canada.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WG_RRKpTS-w

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prmB8mZNefo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fJjxSC_0Jc

    Sheltering women and children first, so most of those outside are of course men.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6XSFzt4-bQ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcQaG4sC9BM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_Pn-i6L8v4

    2000 Rockets for cover and Hamas gunmen entered in Israeli territory. Hamas says they have taken hostages into Hamas territory. Forces in the streets. Fighting in maybe 5 regions.

    Some crossed in paragliders. Tunnels.

    Hamas says the action is in response to actions by Israel in Jerusalem and some compound.

    Israel is bracing. Military planes are striking Gaza.

    How was Hamas able to plan and then coordinate this? considering Israel is one of the biggest tech spy countries. Pegasus came from them, it was reported. They're also friends with the US which people consider to have access to all social media/Android/iPhone. There was maybe 1000 people who knew about the attack, considering there were hundreds of soldiers from Hamas.

    Within a day or two there was a headline of 700 dead in Israel, and 400 Palestinians. US sent a carrier.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4Vw0ptT830

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ0IUCMpgEE

    Headlines about Sweden ‘lauded’ for it's ‘freedom loving’ approach to pandemic. During the pandemic, they took a lot of shit. You're letting your people die. You're not doing everything you can for them. It was hardest to be Sweden, but they seemed pretty secure in their frame when I saw them questioned or provoked along these lines.

    Now, the word I hear people most commonly used to describe the Canadian government is ‘tyranny,’ people having in mind the lockdowns, forced vaccines, response to trucker protest, mainly, and then other headlines more or less seem to reinfornce this view. America people just think is ridiculous, with the Congressional budget crises every few months. California, once considered the perhaps most free, the Wild West, now is considered the most socially engineered, socialism, most ignoring of civil rights.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ys4lfLCeCg

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 25, 2023
  • TORONTO HAS CHANGED... and not for the better - YouTube 

    Everyone already knows. It's still a good place to move for people from some other countries.

    Temporary legal status offered to nearly half a million Venezuelan migrants - YouTube 

    18 months.

    Does this incentivize illegal crossings? Cartels, mules can use this news, it is said, to sell crossings to Latinos.

    Does this incentivize illegal crossings? Cartels, mules can use this news, it is said, to sell crossings to Latinos.


    White House to send 800 active-duty troops to southern border - YouTube  Chicago plans city-run grocery stores - YouTube 

    How does this affect Walmart?

    ‘Down to Amazon and Uber Eats, until the drivers get robbed enough.’

    Can the migration from the southern border into the US be called an ‘invasion.’? It's not an armed invasion of course, and it's not an army or a hostile attack. Perhaps the entry would have to be opposed by the local population and overcome to be an invasion? Are they 'entering as an enemy? It seems no.

    Can it be considered an invasion simply on grounds of being ‘harmful’? It's not really harmful, I think.

    Mexico to deport Central American migrants waiting to enter U.S. as crossings spike - YouTube 

    Near-record numbers. Hundreds of thousands per year crossing the Darian. Hoping to reach the US.

    Push factors: fleeing economic and political instability, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba. Dire conditions.

    Pull factors: ample supply of jobs in many sectors. News that the backlogged system is overwhelmed and people in it are just being released.

    Government of Venezuela does not accept US deportations.

  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 18, 2023

  • Coffee City fires police chief and police force - YouTube 

    Commenter: “It's rare for a news station to take this stance and investigate...”

    Carrying firearms in public banned in Albuquerque - YouTube 

    30-day ban by governor. ('public health order'?) Sheriff says he won't enforce it. There was a public gathering protest where lots of people openly carried. Lawsuits came too, saying it was an unconstitutional ban.

    Can the governor do anything again

    st this type of resistence by the sheriff?



    ‘Illegal’: Italian island Lampedusa sees 120 boats land from Tunisia in Africa - YouTube 
  • Sep, 2023
  • Sep 04, 2023



  • 10th bus carrying migrants from Texas arrives in LA - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 21, 2023
  • What if China just opened up to visitors and stopped cracking down on privacy rights, so that people at least from more ordered countries like NEurope, Canada, Japan, NZ, could enter freely and not be tracked and see and do things there?






    Here in Nicaragua, locals say that the Hawaii thing was a weapon. Maybe to be able to clear the land to be able to develop it.



    Very few people chat with Chinese, and Chinese chat with very few people. A separate internet (all separate apps).
  • Aug, 2023
  • Aug 05, 2023
  • 'Mystery company' buys $800M of land near California's Travis AFB - YouTube 

    ...



    Not enough water to go around: Colorado River Basin, ravaged by drought, plans for a drier future - YouTube 
  • Jul, 2023
  • Jul 03, 2023
  • La NASA inicia la misión por la que 4 personas pasarán un año en una simulación de Marte - YouTube 
  • Jun, 2023
  • Jun 04, 2023
  • Greenland moving towards becomming independent of Denmark.
  • May, 2023
  • May 17, 2023
  • Musk thinks China invading Taiwan has a certain inevitability to it. It is China's intent.

    People talking companies reducing risk (business) in China.

    Buffet sold 86% of Berkshire's TSMC stake.

    Could China really physically invade, given the massive costs that would mean? How many years would it take to blow over?
  • May, 2023
  • May 03, 2023

  • Apr, 2023
  • Apr 25, 2023
  • "Will Europe ban cars?"
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 31, 2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 23, 2023
  • Gravitas: Will there be a civil war in Israel? - YouTube 

  • Arrest warrant issued for Russia’s President Putin for alleged war crimes - BBC News - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 20, 2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 15, 2023
  • Pharmaceutical giant slashes insulin prices after pressure from government and consumers - YouTube 
  • 'Unsustainable': Mass Exodus of Police Officers Leaving Communities in Danger - YouTube 
  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 11, 2023

  • Mar, 2023
  • Mar 03, 2023

  • Awarding .5% of government-held land.
     
    Baby bonuses.
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 28, 2023
  • Canadá y EE. UU. limitan uso de TikTok a empleados de Gobierno - YouTube 
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 26, 2023

  • 95% of smartphone sales now Chinese (was 45% a year ago). Apple and Samsung had a combined 53%, and their share is now 3%.

  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 21, 2023
  • Some analysts saying Russia doesn't have manpower to continue towards war goals

    Casualties in Ukraine high.
     
    From Americans viewpoint, it weakens the Russian army a lot.
  • Feb, 2023
  • Feb 20, 2023
  • China, relation of State and Big Business, versus relation with small companies

    Crackdown on Tech Sector seen as an anti-private sector movement. Trying to weaken the private sector.


    Pushback against the Private Sector when it gets too big, when it no longer serves the State's interest, but at the same time, when it comes to small private sector firms, the government keeps talking about just how important they are to its vision of longterm prosperity.

    Not particularly in favor of large private firms because State loses control, the companies do things that we don't think are in the national interest, they exploit the effective monopoly that they have over the industries they've built up, but small private firms on the other hand, they are innovative, they are the ones that are responsible for driving employment in urban areas, they generate economic growth and specifically household wealth. Common prosperity. We need to give small firms the economic opportunity to succeed and to generate their own wealth.

    Big companies have become large land owners one way or another, and when the State says you have to give a rent holiday, they haven't been doing it enough. Vested interests.

    How wealth is allocated throughout the System.


     


  • Lots of headlines about military drills, etc. NK, Japan, SKorea.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 25, 2023
  • It seems like many things are shifting back, approaching perhaps their median point. Wokeness, a certain type of feminism, immigration, globalism, government, medical integrity. Will it swing hard the other way now, causing moderates to have to switch to voicing Leftist concerns?

    China, Ukraine (sending weapons there including US and German tanks, it seems), NATO (Sweden, Finland, Turkey's issues), Afghanistan (last year),

    ?The 'perpetual state of emergency, AI tools (Dalle, SD, chatGPT), fakenews perhaps, hacking, crypto/blockchain, Big Tech antitrust, energy transition, MSM/bloggers,
     
  • Justin Trudeau leaving restaurant in Hamilton, Ontario & running the gauntlet of protesters - YouTube 
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 23, 2023

  • They had like 25% weekly inflation last week or something.
  • Jan, 2023
  • Jan 04, 2023
  • Ukraine recently has been asking West for more arms supplies. Also saying Russia is now going to exhaust Ukraine with prolonged attacks.
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 26, 2022

  • Sadness mixed with bitterness?

     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 11, 2022
  • Japan launches first commercial moon lander; NASA's lunar flashlight onboard as well | WION - YouTube 
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 08, 2022

  • "In England and Wales, 1 in 4 people is not English or Welsh."

    One of the reasons this happens, not just in the UK, is that the government doesn't publish (or used and then stopped) demographics data for these things it doesn't want to talk about, giving people no information to deal with, or they obfuscate the information by mixing classes of people to make the information not usable in such a discussion.

     
  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 05, 2022
  • Is Xi the strongest cult of personality in history, as Zeihan says?
     
    "It's impossible for people to bring him information now, because they don't know what he'll do."

    "So he's just drinking Cool-Aid."


  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 04, 2022

  • Dec, 2022
  • Dec 02, 2022
  • Has there been a rising tide of intolerance in the Middle East over the past 50 years?

    Used to be a more tolerant place?

    Homosexuality. People who feel highly threatened by tolerance.
     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 28, 2022
  • This is probably the worst day for Xi Jinping since he took over in 2012, says expert - YouTube 
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 27, 2022

  • Calling publicly for the downfall of the ruling party hasn't happened in China since basically 1989. Tiananmen square being referred to by talkers.

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 24, 2022
  • Ukrainian Consequences: The New American War Model - YouTube (at least while US perception of US interventions recovers [Zeihan thinks 18 years])

    Proxy country supplied, satellites/missile coordination, kill chain reduced from hours to minutes, US gear limits Ukrainians from moving into Russia (can't do what they do now without US gear/tech), specialOps (teams of less than 100) doing disruptions and acting as a counselor for local forces.
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 22, 2022

  • 2.5% growth in subSaharan Africa (3x the global average).

    The effect of growth depends on the country. If the country has decent government and the citizens are taken care of, more population may cause less problems. Nigeria, says one man, is the opposite.

    Nigeria expected to be 3rd largest country by 2050.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 21, 2022
  • Beijing in effective shutdown, a week after announcing 'easing'

    Situation is more confused now, as local officials want to look like they're matching the government's easing policy, but also want to keep deaths at zero.


  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 20, 2022
  • South Korea 2022

    K-pop very important to the Korean economy and now (BTS visit to the UN) Korean politics.

    Is it sustainable long-term? "It doesn't matter. That's sort of what the whole ecosystem was built for. The reputation of the cars feeds into the reputation of the phones, and the reputation of the makeup and the movies and the films. If one falters, the others can pick up the pace. ... Korea's very innovative. They're always ready ... to start new things. They're very long-term thinking ... If you're just doing 4-year terms it doesn't work." - Euny Hong

    Next, AI, holograms, entertainment.

    ABBA was once second-earner to Volvo, maybe, for Sweden.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HkkHyUDTqw&list=WL&index=10

    There's a Korean version of just about everything. Browser, food, fashion.

    Most K-pop groups have foreign members now. It's not the exception, closer to the rule. ... Squid Game cast wasn't all Korean. Diversity. What's Korean (culture-wide) is now being redefined and maybe expanded. The population is aging and maybe shrinking, thinking about immigrants, embracing them as Korean. They have to reach out and collab more, it's not just out of charity but out of necesity, good business. ... This will make it not just sustainable but thrive. Things made not just for Koreans but for export as well. Exporting both culture (entertainment) but also technology.

    How to translate that into things Korea really cares about? like the immediate neighborhood and preserving security. Korea is the smallest country there amongs larger major powers. “Having the power of attraction is like having a great playmaker on your team but you still need a close-er” - Scott Snyder.

    What does Korea stand for? It's a very successful country, but one of the most stressed OECD society. As they grow quickly they experience stresses.

    Their soft power is causing backlash in China. To be sure, though, N Koreans are watching their drama.

    Korean language courses at colleges are full, and half of the students are non-heritage, and all of it has to do with Korean pop culture. How to turn that into lifelong supporters and friends of Korea, much like Japan has done with the past generation.

    'Korea is having difficulties deciding between the US and China, but on values Korea shouldn't have difficulty making a choice. It's very hard for Korea to talk about values anywhere that China has interest, for example Hong Kong. That's problematic if we're talking about soft power. You can't be a values producer and values projector on a conditional basis.'

  • Serious protests in China against lockdowns

    ... for Covid and various things involved with that which the people are not happy with, one of the main ones being that officials come to just take people away (a certain number of those present, it seems, rather than anything purposeful, which people in the videos say they ‘don’t understand this Covid policy') because there is ‘a case in the building.'

    Some sang ‘Sea and Sky’, some sang ‘The Lonely and the Brave,’ some sang ‘Unity is Strength’ from highrise buildings that had ‘concerts’.

    Lots of footage being published, with hundreds of people passing barricades, protests, yelling things at officials. On social media, Chinese have been using other (Chinese) languages to bypass to some degree censorship of language.

    ‘The resistence is a result of people’s bottom line being repeatedly challenged.'

    More technical news starts at around 20:00

  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 16, 2022
  • "I don't think invading Taiwan is a good idea, even for China, and I think the Chinese know this. But because they know how much the balance of power matters, they believe they need to have the capacity to invade it." - Samo Burja

  • Hundreds of people.

    China said they were migrant workers, reportedly.

    Rising numbers of cases of Covid in China recently.

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 15, 2022
  • Headlines about Russian missile landing in (NATO member) Poland and killing 2 people

    On the Ukraine border.

    G19 day, G20 tomorrow. Sentiment seems to be 'pissed off'. Prognostication seems to be 'increased support for Ukraine', which means more money being sent there in the form of weapons.

    Some things Poland might respond with, according to a redditor: "Additional arms and funding (remember those requests for jets?), decreased restrictions on the use of arms, incentives for foreign legion involvement, providing facilities to hold POWs, missile defense coverage for at least part of Ukraine, asset seizure, war criminal abduction, covert operations that go unacknowledged..."

    Yesterday Zeihan posted about the start of the 'fall of Crimea'. Russia did a withdrawal from a location, because no way to supply its forces without the rails (alternative was more roundabout routes overland or over the Black Sea).

     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 14, 2022
  • Anywhere but China (ABC) when looking for a factory nowadays. But 'Who lost America?' for China? They had the biggest lobby in America, the US business community. Advocating stronger, deeper ties with China.

    US and China are still intertwined though, and have 40 years of ties (sending kids to study in the other country, buying factories in the other country).

    It is thought that although they are competitors and peers, they do not share values. How true is this? Tom Friedman says this difference in values didn't matter while China was selling the US low tech goods, but when China started selling really important tech, that value difference became important.


     
  • Nov, 2022
  • Nov 02, 2022
  • Americans 77% have a favorable impression of South Koreans now (versus 31% in 2003). BTS and Squid Game.

    Traditional ally UK, 57%. Americans have a higher impression of South Korea than of Australia and France, also.

    China consistently has soured relationships when a country speaks out (often about Taiwan), and for China this is a no-go and China penalizes (economic action) them some way or other).

    NBA tweet led to a ban.

    The way China is run curbs any action to gain soft power, commented Aini. Everything that China has to show (which would be good for its image) has to go through a censorship and propaganda filter, filtering anything that could be seen as detrimental to the State. What comes out doesn't strike a chord. "China itself is actually stifling a lot of the soft power that it could have." Despite headlines saying China has a $10b soft power budget.

    Some things that China is exporting are a makeup thing, Douyin, and a game, Genshin Impact.

    If China drops it's filter, though, it will become more influenced (and communicate more?) with the West, which could lead to more instability.

    People note that nowadays, anytime anyone even talks about or mentions something that is 'Chinese culture' in a positive sense, other people 'backlash' and start making comments that are negative about something China does that aren't really relevant to the original topic.

    Another thing is that a lot of Douyin makeup is just reposted as 'Korean makeup' despite its Chinese creators, which is a label that might get more interest or views.

    Chinese can't access the world to show their culture because they're blocked, unlike Japan and Korea.


     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 30, 2022
  • New footage from China congress fuels questions about why Hu Jintao was hauled out - YouTube 

  • Military spending to go up.

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 24, 2022

  • He expects China to retaliate (perhaps against US tech companies in China) for Biden's banning exports of tech stuff to China.
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 20, 2022
  • 45 days as PM of Britain (shortest ever), Truss resigned

    Elected by 'less than 1/10 of 1%. She appointed to leadership only friends and like-mindeds.'

    About 7 days for them to find out who the next PM will be. Not a General Election. Sunak is favorite in betting. Boris is among the potentials.

     
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 14, 2022


  •  
  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 05, 2022
  • Putin signed into law the annexation of about 18% of Ukraine
  • OPEC cut [really around 900k] barrels

    SA ok, but UAE and Kuwait seemed to be on board. Becky on CNBC asked why they didn't raise their hands if they're supposed to be US allies.

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 03, 2022
  • China has a lot of energy

    Runaway energy usage on crypto-miners. Some think China made a mistake, and there should be more freedom to do crypto-mining in China. But what is the production? Once mines are set up, they only need a few people to run them.

    Why out of China? Capital controls, it can be challenging to tax, can leave borders.

  • Oct, 2022
  • Oct 02, 2022
  • "India will not be the next China ... It will be bigger"

    ... title of a vlog I saw.

    What were the preexisting weaknesses of China that it inevitably had to face? versus those of India?

  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 30, 2022
  • Opening the Venezuela/Colombia border

    A ton of Venezuelans want to cross the Darian Gap and go north into the USA (we could posit that if they were closer they would all already be there). Groups go regularly across the dangerous passage. It takes 2 weeks to arrive in the States. ... Between them and the Darian Jungle is Colombia, which has been a great friend politically to America for years. Colombia elected Petro, a ‘socialist’ president (their first Leftist president) who took office in August. He opened the border with Venezuela a few days ago.

    For previous years, Venezuealans already crossed easily into Colombia, and millions are new immigrants who crossed not though the border. How much difference does legal crossing make?

    Venezuelans prisons are overfull. Prisoners crossing is being discussed on Colombian analysis news. (Interesting to remember how Britain exported its prisoners to places like Australia over 100 years ago. To contrast, everyone talks about how currently America makes a profit for selected groups though the monetization of incarceration.) However, how many of these Venezuealans are in for polical crimes (black market petrol sales) or economic crimes (people who would not sell so many illegal products if there was a healthy economy to work in)? Or for drug crimes (drugs which are increasily being made legal in many countries)?

    Yesterday in Colombian cities there were large marches in protest of the new president. Signs carried were about taxes, breaking Antioquia into three pieces, and the Darian Gap, among other themes. Most of the marchers were older, unlike many protest marches.

    Side note. Colombians say Venezuealans are tall. How true is this?
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 16, 2022
  • Things no one is heard guessing:

    - What a conclusion in Ukraine might look like
    - If Putin remains in power if Russia loses
    - Under what circumstances might sanctions against Russia be lifted
  • Tehran has all of a sudden lost its primary weapons sponsor and its primary Security Council sponsor - Zeihan

    They'll start to think and act differently. (Zeihan still). They may negotiate differently.
     
    He thinks Israel and Syria will have some firework competitions (because he thinks Biden has recently changed his stance from a former strong opposition to potential war there) and Syria will sue for peace.

    He thinks the Poles, Latvians, Fins, etc will try to peel off Belarus out of R. orbit. He sees Lukashenko sued for war crimes for providing access to Russia into Ukraine.

    Saudis (how much energy can be brought to market) will decide the government of Caracas through it's influence on the decisions of the US.
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 14, 2022
  • In 5 years the US will be in a better position than it is now, with a better supply chain - Zeihan
     
    East Asia primary source on income is manufacturing.
  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 13, 2022
  • A couple destroyers in the Indian Ocean basin would be enough to end China's energy imports.

    (Because China's warships can only do 400 miles under combat situations.)

  • "China is probably the biggest loser in the Ukraine war after Ukraine itself." - Zeihan

    "Because they're the last country in the kick line, everyone else gets their stuff first." (Energy, Food from the Russian space)

  • Sep, 2022
  • Sep 08, 2022

  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 30, 2022

  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 29, 2022

  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 25, 2022
  • Mystery deepens over Al-Qaeda chief Ayman Al-Zawahiri's death | International News | WION - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 19, 2022
  • Gravitas: China's Sichuan shuts all factories to save electricity - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 18, 2022

  • 60 years. Only certain types of business.
     
  • Agriculture is the sector facing the most threat over the next 10 to 20 years and it will result in multi-continental famines (between the Ukraine war and the breakdown of fertilizer supply chains) -Zeihan

    When we globalized, everyone learned to specialize. It was all about the extra value added. And we didn't really worry about having to grow sufficient food for our own plates, so we got into better things. We moved into manufacturing and services. We moved into the city. Agriculture moved from the center of everyone's lives to the edge. It became reliable the more secure and safe globalization became. That's working in reverse now. Countries have to grow their own food (now dependent on and on land only useful with fertilizers), and that means the volume produced is going to go down.

     
  • "Beijing has been quite stunned at the extent of the cooperation between Europe and America on sanctions against America. The calculation ... before the invasion was that Europe and America would be divided, and America would slap a few sanctions on but it wouldn't really be game-changing ..." - John Lee (Hudson Inst)

    "The Chinese now realize that if there's any kind of war, for example over Taiwan, the high likelihood is that the Americans would get global cooperation to start imposing extremely harsh particularly financial sanctions on the Chinese, and that would devastate the Chinese economy"

    Only the Americans tend to do war well over more than one of the 4 domains (land sea air cyber). China and Russia have high impressive numbers in military costs and equipment but haven't really invested that much in logistics and organization and coordination across domains. So its great for them to have all these weapons but if they can't actually use them in a coordinated way ...

    Unlike Russia, China still seeks to be known as a legitimate or respected leader. You can't do that just by material power alone. It would have to get other country's to accept its ownership over Taiwan for that, it couldn't just start bombing Taiwan. So the Chinese are now thinking How do we do that?

    The Covid19 pandemic began a process of diversification away from China. And factoring in the real political risk of being so reliant on China.
     
    Russia is a massive surplus producer and exporter of food stuffs and energy. China is the world's largest importer of all of that, especially for the imports necessary to grow food. The sanctions placed on Russia if placed on China would lead to a de-industrialization of the entire Chinese system in under a year, according to Ziehan.

    Boycotts. Shareholders, consumers can take a stand to change corporate policy. That's a surprise to China, according to Zeihan.


  • 3 choke points: Straight of Hormuz, Straight of Malacca, Singapore Straight.
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 13, 2022
  • Sri Lanka allows Chinese vessel to dock, Washington and Delhi raise a concern | World English News - YouTube 
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 11, 2022

  • "Someone who could bring together various factions of the Taliban and make sure they were following the same line."

    "The Taliban have been saying that their biggest achievement so far in the country is they've been able to provide security to the people of Afghanistan, and attacks like this ... are meant to taint that."

    No one has claimed it. Similar attacks in the past have been claimed by Isil.

     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 09, 2022
  • China has been carrying out military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan carried some out today.

  • Another example of how things go along (although philosophically opposed by many) until there's an actual contention, and then true colors are displayed.

     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 06, 2022

  • Kissinger, Nixon, anyone?

     
  • Aug, 2022
  • Aug 02, 2022

  • In Kabul


     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 31, 2022

  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 28, 2022
  • Zelinsky poses for Vogue


     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 27, 2022
  • Russia might leave the ISS, it's being reported

  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 25, 2022
  • 1983 - 2015 - Peter Zeihan

    35 years with plenty of finance, no security risks, and where anyone who wanted to play a part in the international trading system could (even countries that could have never been successful on their own in a pre-American-led-and-secured globalized system), and it was backed up by massive waves of workers and consumers. Low security costs allowed low-cost production.

    China had its best 35 years. Remove American globalism from the equation and it doesn't work. Play China forward and you see they don't have a work force.

    Currently, half the world population is dependent directly on food imports. 3/4 on fertilizer imports to grow their own food. Trade links.

    Some places weren't able to expand their populations until they could import food (like the Middle East). Some places couldn't get into manufacturing until the security thing happened (like East Asia). Some places used to go to war for energy until recently (like Europe).

     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 11, 2022
  • Putin to temporarily shut down Nord Stream, reportedly
  • Sri Lanka protests. Destroyed the leaders house. He resigned. India did not send military aid.
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 08, 2022
  • Chinese belt and road region


    #China #IR
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 07, 2022


  • This time there was no little vial presented to Congress, so who knows what to make of this claim.

    Analysts say this time Iran wants to get an ironclad deal that the US can't back out of, and uranium stockpiles are leverage.

    Israel's new PM went to France to try to get Macron's help, but Macron wants dialogue, he stated publicly, and a new deal with Iran.

     
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 04, 2022

  •  
  • Jul, 2022
  • Jul 01, 2022
  • Turkey 'got what it wanted from Finland and Sweden' in talks, its government says

    ... and it approved the bids by Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Many view this as picking sides against Russia. Erdogan also said yesterday 'We will work with Biden for the purchase of the F-16s.'

  • China going for global currency status, reaching out to 5 countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, HK, Singapore and Chile

    They can build a yuan reserve and a yuan pool (15b yuan each country). A global financial system.



  • Any direct transactions will trigger Western sanctions. This is being called a 'hack' so India's biggest cement maker can buy from Russia. 157k tonnes worth $25m (172m yuan). The sale was arranged from Dubai, reportedly. The mechanism isn't known.

    Coal is the main fuel to manufacture cement.

    13% of Russian reserves are already in yuan. Indian companies must be trading USD for yuan in a Chinese bank in China or HK. There are no sanctions if you don't use USD.

    Yuan to Ruble trade has increased 1000% since the invasion of Ukraine.

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 22, 2022
  • Europe taking a lot of flack for recently switching to coal after long criticizing developing nations for using it

    Russia has cut gas exports to Europe 50% over the past week, reportedly.

    Some say China and India are buying more Russian gas.

    Colombia increased exports of coal to Europe 50% (1.3m tonnes) this year. South Africa is now sending coal to Europe.

    Europe uses 20% of the world's energy resources, but has 7% of the world's population.

     
  • "Because Afghanistan is different" - Fatima Gailani

    "This is not an Afghanistan that came out of a very bitter, ugly civil war of the Mujahedin."

    "It's an Afghanistan of educated people. It's an Afghanistan of men and women seen in important positions. This is an Afghanistan where people can go on radio, television and criticize their governments, the leaders."

    Are they doing that now? "They are doing that now. How long they will continue ... But no one could shut them up. That one thing I know."

    "If anyone is interested in governing Afghanistan, they have to accept the new Afghanistan. Never in the history of Afghanistan was it that way."

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 20, 2022
  • Petro, first non-conservative president of Colombia in decades, won 50% to 47%

    Petro takes office from Duque August 7.

    Like 11m votes for him in a Country of 52m. The choice was between (Petro) a leftist who talks a lot about change, which many of the people want (the two main complaints of Colombians seem to be 'inequality' and 'corruption'), although at a risk of making things worse ('like Venezuela' since Petro is considered to be socialist). And on the other hand a right politician, which represented for voters stability and less risk but not the change many want.

    Petro has promised several things (which are not largely ideas new to him), but they would require political support beyond his office to pull off. He does not have the majority of Congress.

    1. Make more use of land. 1.5% of Colombians own 50% of the land. The idea is to tax land in ways that would encourage using it more, and to redistribute some land.

    2.a. More equality in access to health, ie a universal state system which doesn't depend on the ability of patients to pay. Payed for with 'progressive taxes' and a strong hand with corruption.

    2.b. Pensions. The offices that currently manage pensions Petro has accused of corruption. Critics say the country traditionally is not efficient as an administrator of money.

    3. Environmentalism. Colombia's oil wealth he wants to phase out to become a green economy.

    Because it is such a big change, and people weren't sure it would happen, I think it's fair to say people are excited to see what will happen, whether they are hopeful or dreadful.

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 14, 2022
  • BRICS looking for new members, first time they've done so since adding South Africa 12 years ago

    G8 became G7 when they kicked Russia out.

    India has wanted to join UN Security Council for a long time, as have other countries, but none have been accepted.

    New institutions. They are saying this is a new world, some think.
     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 12, 2022
  • Russian cars, newly produced, without airbags or anti-lock brakes

    ... because they can't import those right now because of their war.
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 11, 2022
  • Shanghai lockdown back on
  • Will Russia continue to be a reliable supplier of arms to India, as Russia becomes involved with China?

    "A weakened Russia, with a degraded military industrial structure, is not going to be the major reliable, efficient partner we were counting on before the war." Indian congressman

    India is considering closer alliance with the US but is not impressed with the US's history of alliances (it hasn't always fared very well for the US's alliance partners, some say).

    Some say India is coming to resemble China and Russia more than it resembles Western democracies.

    2 months before the Ukraine invasion Putin visited India on a rare trip abroad.

    In 1971 both India and the Soviets were concerned about China and made a strong pact. Russia became India's #1 arms supplier (against China, India's longstanding adversary).

    Recently, the US threatened to sanction India for an arms purchase of high-tech Russia weapons.

    However, India buying arms from Russia seems to have been declining anyway over the past 10 years. India buys more now from US, Israel, France and other countries.

    Russia has historically voted against and even vetoed UN movements in support of India, particularly in India's sensitive issues like Kashmir.

     
  • Jun, 2022
  • Jun 10, 2022
  • Taiwan 2022 Q2

    US and Chinese defense ministers have held their first face to face talks in Singapore.

    China's MoD spokesperson was quoted 'If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China [ie independence?], the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war. No matter the cost.'

    India recently entered the South China Sea theater by supplying the non-China side with weapons. France recently sent a diplomatic mission to Taiwan. Taiwan is one of the main issues between the US and China. Recently Biden stated he would defend Taiwan militarily if it was attacked by China.

    On the street and among commenters, people speculate China may invade during the current Ukraine invasion or perhaps after it concludes.

  • May, 2022
  • May 31, 2022

  • According to Redacted, US proposed change so that authority would shift to WHO and not citizens' elected reps. Voted down only because of African countries (Western ones went along with it). This treaty, which rushes vaccines to people (without their consent), is called the "Right to Health" treaty.

    WHO a couple years ago (after Swine Flu) changed their definition of 'pandemic' away from the severity of the disease to just case numbers. So they could impose whatever measures as long as a certain number of people had a disease, regardless of what it was, it seems.

    #1 donor to WHO is Gates Foundation. Next Germany, then the US.

    A commenter on the video: The Nuremberg code consists of 10 principles, the first of which being that the voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential in any experiment on humans.

    How would this treaty relate with human and civil rights? Would it just override all of them?

     
  • May, 2022
  • May 15, 2022
  • Random notes

    We're in a transition environment, and that means volatility (transition to higher rates, inflation, food prices).

    People last year, some people called it a potential hedge. Crypto is showing its true colors in this environment. But are they anything more than a small diversionary thing (Ukraine war they showed a use)?
     
  • May, 2022
  • May 13, 2022
  • Random economic notes from experts

    US stock market has lost $7t in 2022.

    Generational buying opportunity.

    But some of these stocks have almost doubled in PE since pandemic lows.

    Some were used as bond proxies, defensive plays in an uncertain world.

    The 3 major areas of the world are all slowing economically. China lockdowns for Covid. Europe's looking at a recession this year. US is slowing. Growth scare is yet to be priced into markets.

    Keep an eye on investment grade, because if there's been excessive leverage taken there, that's when finance contaminates the economy (instead of the other way around).

    Stagflation as the baseline (El-Erian). Something worse depends on soft or hard landing. Inflation stuck at 5 to 6%. Complacency about CPI numbers.

    UK leader to cut 90k civil servant jobs.

    Some ask if Apple stock bounce (May 12) was a signal for a market bottom.

    We've priced in probably a hard landing. (Brian Kelly).

    We don't know if the type of stock trader who is interested in ARK-types are buying in. The prime brokers and the market makers know; they know if they're creating to lend but they won't tell us. (Jan van Eck) Vandatrack tracks retail flow and I think they're showing buyers. (Batnick)

    Investors are waiting for a higher low, watching constantly wanting to buy.

    There were a lot of narratives about why the bond market was the way it was over the past 10 years. The Central Bank. There's just one reason.

    IPOs (Rivian) and growth stocks (Zoom) were huge but now are small relative to established companies. "It was a relative game." "Did you see what they're paying for Tesla?"

    "Everything trades off of Apple, I think."

    The labor market is SO tight.

    "The Fed is happy. The market decline is orderly (haven't had to pause the market) They're being very transparent about what they're doing. And people still have jobs."

    The only problem is that our cost of living is going up. Wages are going up, but how is your quality of living?

    There's 1.9 (reported) jobs right now for every 1 person seeking a job. You can quit your job and get another one in a snap. How powerful do you feel? Stocks in your portfolio are 30% lower than they were a year ago.

    If there's a recession, we're not low enough (stock market). Because multiples will have to come down and earnings will come down with them.

    The elephant. The Fed is going to get out of fixed income market. And we have commercial banks that provide no liquidity to the fixed income market. So that is where the breakage can happen. Because everyone has to borrow money if they want to buy a house or anything else?

    Does that Fed tighten too much? I don't think they care about asset prices, because they need to kill inflation. They made a boo-boo and they really want to fix it. "Causing inflation." ("Transitory.") That is their job: price stability.

    The pain that's going to come from borrowers having to pay a lot more debt.

    Corporations are OK (balance sheets). It's governments that have borrowed too much money.

    The biggest global risk is a China recession. And that's priced in because China's in a recession.

    Everything prices off of treasuries.

    Circled on the calendar. In June the Fed leaves the fixed income market. (Back in July?)

    The Fed wants to reload their ammo, so they can come back into the market if they want to. Then they can do bond market intervention if they want. As the liquidity comes out of the system and the labor market is still OK. It could be really tough for investors but that's not important to them.

    I think they're more mad at having to pay $200 to fill up their gas tank than anything else right now. The pocketbook of the household is going up. Everything.

    Wages are sticky inflation. Everything else is fixable. You can have more wheat next year. We're getting close to the wage price spiral but we're not there yet.

    The stock market is not the economy, but it is the economy to private companies.

    There's a lot of ebbs and flows to valuations.

    One of the price-setters for venture capital and growth tech is Masayoshi Son, lost $24b in Q1. (He made a lot in Alibaba. He doesn't currently have a lot of money to spend, so.) He still put $2.5b out on the street in Q1. SOFTBANK.

    Some people focus on 0 to 1. I want to focus on 1 to 2. You wanna have more than 1 product. So, Robinhood had low-cost trading. Then what? That's not the company, that's just the 0 to 1. How do you get your competitive pricing moat? You almost know Coinbase is gonna get decreasing revenue from their customers, just because there's going to be more competition. ROBINHOOD. COINBASE.

    There's a lot of fintech companies, all spending money on trying to win customers. The race to zero.

    What are you betting on in the crypto space (for private investing)? Software development teams, that can solve a problem that needs to be solved for a long period of time.

    I can't hire enough people, and you have to pay them too much. My brokerage account shrunk. My cost of everything is up. Everyone quit on me.

    Consumer credit boomed in March (2022). Sign of gas prices are too high, and I need to leave a higher balance on my credit cards. I was not squeezed for the last 2 years (stimi checks). I'm not paying with cash anymore; I'm putting half on my credit card. (credit was way down during stimulus check-era.)

    People say consumer spending is doing good because it's still high. But that's not the right reading. They don't want to be spending that. That's just what it costs now.

    If you greenlight (and regulate well) onshore crypto, people don't need to go to offshore). But the problem is the FCC needs to fight against the banking regulators.

    Bitcoin is maturing as an asset. The biggest country stopped mining and it survived. The mining difficulty rate adjusted. ... But it is not hedging against inflation. Gold didn't hedge inflation in the current environment really well either (it did hit a high last year).

    The dollar is weakening and strengthening. It's at a 20-year high.

    MARKET HISTORY when thinking about Bitcoin. FDR made it illegal for individuals to buy gold. But they could buy gold coins. Coograms and Maple Leafs. Everyone bought gold through futures contracts instead. And then we had gold bullion ETFs.

    I think gold has underperformed the last 5 years because of Bitcoin. People born with a cellphone in their hand. People in Ukraine.

    Smart Contracts have outperformed over the last 12 months. One of them has to be a winner. And you should also buy a basket.

    GDX is more liquid than gold. In a bear market it's hard to trade a gold company.

      
  • May, 2022
  • May 12, 2022

  • Recently the US, which has never recognized Taiwan's independence (for the sake of its relationship with the CCP) deleted a sentence on the State Dept website that said the US "does not support Taiwan independence." It changed wording that had referenced Taiwan as being part of China.

    Is the US going to spend some more money on arms for Taiwan?

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 26, 2022

  • This video gives an idea of how China is managing its cities during the pandemic April 2022 (2 years after the start, but after the latest Omicron strain, when China locked down Shanghai again). Lots of images.

    Lower immunity from natural infection - uniquely vulnerable. It was a source of national pride for Chinese that their case numbers had been so low, and they had so 'successfully' weathered the pandemic relative to other countries, although their strict lockdowns of cities caused economic and other problems (such as other health problems due to lack of diagnosis and treatment, access to medicine, etc, psychological problems from isolation, social issues from lack of socialization - it has been said (by Mill in the following terms) that the necessity of the mental wellbeing of people (on which all their other wellbeings depend) lies in freedoms) as well as extreme tracking and monitoring through electronic devices and registration. Some say the Chinese see the issue politically, as the Chinese system versus the West, so it may be less likely China would now permit opening the cities and having more infections, because of the images that would be shown to the world.
     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 25, 2022
  • Cameroon signed a new agreement with Russia for Military cooperation

    They have ongoing military agreements.
  • Members of the Saudi royal family have been selling yachts, homes etc for a few years

    Apparently, MBS has cut money usually given to royals. He wants the money to fund ambitious projects. Some say that if the royals have lavish lifestyles, MBS will view them as rivals, and so are opting to hold cash.

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 24, 2022
  • Macron won a second term

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 20, 2022
  • China makes security pact with Solomon Islands

    Reportedly just before a US diplomat was supposed to go to keep this very thing from happening.

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 12, 2022

  • Chinese city residents are organizing in group chats (on their phones) to negotiate and buy food bulk from vendors they know

  • Chinese government facing criticism inside country for:

    - efficacy of Chinese-made vaccines
    - refusal to use mRNA vaccines provided to them by US

    200m people (20% of population) are locked down in China right now. 13 of their largest cities and some other cities.

  • Shanghai has been under (strict) lockdown for a couple weeks now, as part of a zero Covid plan

    There's no food on the grocery store shelves now, reportedly. The government is deploying food packets. Reports that wealthy people had hoarded the food from stores.

    Truck driver restrictions/refusals to enter Shanghai disrupting supply chain.

  • Four deadly attacks in Israel in past weeks

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 08, 2022
  • "Globalization, which historically was viewed as a barrier to conflict due to the interdependent nature of global trade, has now become a new battleground." - Patrick Boyle

    China recently stated that the US's use of weaponization of global finance (sanctions on Russia [after doing it to Iran's central bank a few years ago]) would be the downfall of it's status as world reserve currency. Ie integrity.

    China has a version of Swift, and India is considering (so far just considering) doing a Ruble-Rupee exchange or working in barter.

    Most of the West is on side, sanctioning Russia, and that makes up the bulk of currency action, but there are still 100 countries or something that are not sanctioning Russia. Brazil is another country that might help Russia work around the sanctions. Boyle said the use of sanctions in the way the US is doing will have many countries wondering if they can still trust the US.



     

  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 07, 2022

  • Parents and children had been separated by force (no choice), if one was found to have Covid. They are now allowed to be together again.

    Only supermarkets and pharmacies are open. Images of China's biggest city look the same as the 2020 beginning of the pandemic.

    State-owened banks are loaning businesses, which have no revenue now, money, in some cases.

    In other cases, people are working, traveling in a closed loop between home and their factory. Factories set up tents during the pandemic, which allows them to do this now.

    China uses drones to go around telling people not to go out or doors.

    The hope is to reduce new infections to 0 in two weeks.

    This lockdown is expected to cost Shanghai 3.5% in economic growth.

     
  • Apr, 2022
  • Apr 04, 2022

  • Note that RT is banned on YouTube. This news comes from a blogger who used RT.
  • People seem to be starting to talk about 'fear'

    I mean vloggers, writers, commenters. This seems to be just starting in at least some sense. The fear of people faced with anxiety and threat (from, I guess, governments more than anything).
     
    I've seen this topic taken up by several vloggers lately.
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 24, 2022

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 20, 2022
  • The Germans have been slashing [defense] budgets basically every year for the last 20 years. The capabilities of the once-fearsome West German military that became the German military, those are long gone. There's really nothing Germany can do except economically. - Samo Burja

    Britain, France. These are shadows of what they were even in the 90s.

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 18, 2022
  • SA holding the cards

    XI is reportedly going to make his first overseas visit in 2 years to SA. Recently Biden asked SA to increase oil production and they said no.

    US is energy independent (biggest oil producer) and China is the biggest energy consumer (currently buys 1/4 of SA's oil exports). SA is the biggest crude oil exporter.

    US published documents on Yemen or something and linked SA royal house to Kashogi killing. China has it's think in Xinjiang.

    SA and US have an old relationship. China has leverage over Iran, something US may never have.

    How much weapons will China provide for SA?

    Reportedly China is talking about using Yuan instead of USD to buy oil. SA made a deal with Nixon to trade oil only for USD in return for security guarantees.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 14, 2022
  • "Note that [the US] cannot simultaneously embargo these three places," Samo Burja said about the US going to try to get Venezuela to produce some oil. The US can't embargo Venezuela, China, and Russia all at the same time.

  • "It's not in China's interest to have Russia collapse. So I think a coupling of Russia to the Chinese system feels like the default outcome right now." - Samo Burja

    Resulting in high energy prices in Europe, slow de-industrialization and impoverishment of Europe.

    China is the only winner of a conflict between Europe and Russia, Burja said, although he said the US could benefit long term from the goings on (because the US can be energy independent and produce oil, in addition to other reasons).

     
  • "The entire German strategy for the last 40 years has been 'Use our economic weight to effect a favorable security and trade and regulatory environment worldwide. That strategy has failed profoundly." - Samo Burja

    ... talking about Ukraine.
  • Poll about if America were invaded like Ukraine


     
  • 18m excess deaths attributed to pandemic (not counting 2022 it seems)

    The paper doesn't say (because we don't yet have research with any conclusions it seems) what happened. Was it that the virus in its various strains was stronger than thought, or was it people not able to access health care, or was it due to preventative measures, or what?

    It's expected there will be repercussions going forward as well, as people who avoided or weren't able to get diagnoses for things didn't know or weren't able to be treated in a timely manner.

    Paper in the Lancet  
  • "Some sort of clarification of the situation of Ukraine was inevitable." - Samo Burja

    "Either there would be another coup like the one in 2014, and the government would once more flip towards Russia. Or NATO would move very quickly, and put NATO troops in Ukraine and make Ukraine a NATO member and Russia probably wouldn't dare to overturn that outcome with military force."

    "Part of the game is inflicting unacceptable political and economic situations on your enemy, forcing your enemy to act first militarily, thereby having the moral justification to retaliate much more strongly."

    "Powers do try to entrap each other into military action. If I believed more in the competence of the Pentagon, I would believe that they had goaded Russia into an invasion that they knew Russia would fumble."
     
  • "NATO is not benevolent. Both NATO and Russia are engaged in imperialistic expansion, driven of course by mutually irresolvable legitimate security concerns." - Samo Burja

  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 13, 2022
  • So far, violence not super high in Ukraine

    MSM is constantly reporting on the destruction, but it's very limited. Talking about 'a building' or 'an attack.'

  • Results of Ukraine war, according to Samo Burja

    1. China develops more alternatives to the Western financial and economic system (West is "fighting tanks with sanctions," so Russia will seek alternatives), and starts offering them to rogue states around the world. Even if China doesn't offer a base of support to Russia, countries around the world will more and more want to turn to China for their economic integration. (Will China also 'buy terrorist states' as Chomsky puts it?)

    2. Russia successfully occupies large chunks of Ukraine that it did not occupy before.

    3. Putin remains in power for the next year.

     
  • Many commentators and experts when talking about Ukraine are saying it's a war crime or it's an unjust war, but leaving it at that.

    They're not saying anymore against Russia's actions. They are all putting it in context of the situation the West has created. Then they add again their line about it not being a just war, or about it being a war crime.

    They liken the war, being a pre-emptive war, to the US invasion of Iraq, which they also say is a war crime.
  • Putin starts destroying cities, or a prolonged war of attrition, are the two prospects Chris Hedges presumes for Ukraine

    Putin has been restrained in the damage he's done in Ukraine, Hedges said, but he may become frustrated and lift restraints, resulting in largescale deaths. Or, if there is a steady stream of arms shipments into Ukraine, it may be a long war of attrition.

    Which would be more profitable for the permanent military industrial complex?

    #Ukraine #Russia #MIC
  • Ukraine seems to for many people be highlighting the negatives of 'nationalism'

    Which unites the right and left, often contains or mixes with racism, one group over another or excluding another.
     
  • "Because Russia controls the air, the game is ultimately fixed against the Ukrainians" - Chris Hedges

    Because the West won't call a 'no fly zone' (which would be interpreted by Russia as an act of war, it's been said), Russia will control the air and therefore the war.

    Hedges hearkened back to Iraq where Apache helicopters basically acted as mobile tank-destroying machines, picking one off after another.

  • SA executes 81 men

    The largest mass execution recently. Some were murderers, and others were found to have 'pledged allegiance to foreign terrorist organizations.'

    This was reported by Wion.

    73 of the 81 were Saudi nationals who had been found guilty in a single case of attempting to assassinate security officials, targeting police stations and convoys.

    SA officials said it was 'only protecting its national security interest through its laws.'

    The countries that execute the most people are China, Iran, Egypt, Iraq, and fifth SA.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 12, 2022
  • US has been involved in fighting in 84 of the 194 countries recognized by the UN

    ... according to Wion

    Map with the countries it's invaded or been military involved in:


     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 11, 2022
  • Reportedly, UAE and SA have declined to answer phonecalls from Biden

    ... although they have both spoken to Putin, reportedly.

    Wion said the reason was a 'trust deficit.' And noted the affair with the killing of the journalist Kashogi.
     
  • No one can talk or think about anything except Ukraine these days

    ... not much of value is being said. Mostly they're not historians or journalists with some time in.

    ... Other stories that might be critical of the government, that they've been doing and now data is coming out? Crickets.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 07, 2022
  • Putin's conditions for ending the war:

    - Ukraine must recognize Crimea as Russian

    - Ukraine must recognize Russian-controlled separatist regions as independent

    - Ukraine must change its constitution to formally renounce its ambitions to join political blocs like NATO and the EU

  • "We're in total economic war" - Steve Weiss
     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 03, 2022
  • So looking back a bit, focus on air in Russia Ukraine

    First move by Russians was knock out Ukraine's static radar positions to decrease Ukraine's early warning system. Cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. (24th)

    And also air defense systems like the S300 surface to air missiles.

    Also runways and airports to create runways for themselves and destroy some planes that were parked there (some say they weren't as successful in this part).

    Second, focus on air assets of Ukraine (bases and air crafts, and remaining air defenses). This hasn't happened.

    Russia is mostly using helicopters and gunships. Unguided weapons. They've left space and Ukraine has launched offensives there. R hasn't kept U's planes on the ground.

     
  • Mar, 2022
  • Mar 01, 2022
  • US has a freedom convoy moving

    Restaurants, fuel companies, etc. have been donating.

    Expected to reach near DC in early March. But said they won't be entering DC proper.
     
    You might note here that while many disruptor businesses and tech are trying to replace drivers (lowering costs), the dependence on actual people preserves the popular ability to combat government oppression.
  • Ukraine saying Russia is bombing civilian targets, Russia saying Ukraine is placing military equipment near residential buildings which is why it's targeting there

  • Ukraine expects up to 70 fighter jets from Bulgaria, Poland, and Slovakia

    According to RT. Bulgaria denied this, but RT said Poland seems to be on board.

    Thousands of anti-tank and anti-air have been sent in from EU and NATO countries.
  • Foreign legion to fight in Ukraine

    Ukraine has published some videos for people from other countries, that people can come to Ukraine and fight with them.

    It was pointed out that the people this might attract might be in significant part far-right extremists or 'nazis' (whatever that word means right now), and that they would afterwards return to their nations hardened, proud and accomplished in what they'd been doing and the company they'd been keeping.

     
  • 60km long convoy of Russian military vehicles making its way to Kiev

  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 28, 2022
  • Reportedly, Russian side of war not going very well

    Whether this is true or not, there's no way to tell.

    Some have mentioned less than stellar military training of troops, and perhaps most of all that Russians don't want to shoot Ukrainians.

  • Estimated that maybe 5m Ukrainians will become refugees in Europe (mostly in Poland)

    They're talking about allowing such refugees to live in EU countries for three years.

  • Some in US gov saying we're past the point of no return for the prospect of rebuilding relations with Russia under Putin

    It's been said that Germans will never again make themselves dependent on R energy, and that they now see it as a mistake. And that the Brits will never be the conduit for Oligarch wealth they have been for the past 20 years.

     
  • Nightmare scenario is that the conflict expands to other parts of Ukraine, or there's an air or sea accident, and Russia is then fighting an EU country - Ian Bremmer

  • If Putin kills lots of Ukrainians (which it's expected he would have to do to take Kiev) this will increase opposition within Russia, since they two countries have such strong ties, lots of relations - Ian Bremmer's thought

    Questions about possible future Russian demotivation

    Ian Bremmer is from Eurasia Group

     
  • 2008 Russia takes a piece of Georgia, sanctions were pretty limited

    2014 takes two pieces of Ukraine, a few years later he's hosting the World Cup and European leaders are coming to visit him there

    2016 elections, Obama's like I don't want to deal with that right now

    So the economic sanctions now are maybe more than Russia expected

    - View by Ian Bremmer

  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 27, 2022
  • Reportedly, 6000 of people who were nonviolently protesting the Ukraine invasion were detained in Russia

     
  • "Russia has taken the position that grievance and victimization is what powers their domestic and foreign policy" - Rory Finnin

     
  • US was trying to make Ukraine into "a de facto member of NATO,"according to John Mearsheimer

    "They [the Russians] aren't interested in negotiating anymore. They're interested in altering the status quo."

    He said the genesis of this conflict was 2008, the decision to try to make Ukraine part of NATO. The crisis breakout was Feb 22, 2014 end of what he calls the 'unipolar moment'). It was then put on the backburner, and then all of a sudden it broke out again.

    The obvious solution is perhaps politically impossible, M said. Because America unwilling to make any concessions on NATO. ... Turning Ukraine into an effective buffer, a neutral state, between Russia and NATO, which is what Ukraine was since independence in 1991 until 2014.

    Before the problem, the problem has to be solved of the lack of agreement between the pro-Russian Donbas and the Ukrainian government in Kiev.

    He said the Russians don't want to negotiate with the UK or Germany or NATO, because they all just do what the Americans ask them to do. So Russia only wants to talk to the US president.

    He (speaking a few days before the actual invasion) said Putin probably had no intention of invading, because that would mean 'owning' Ukraine, being an unwanted occupying force, which in the modern world just comes with so much trouble of all sorts. He said Putin must surely understand that. Also that the West would go to great lengths to cripple the Russian economy. Also, without invading, Putin was 'winning.' He had everyone's attention and everyone was trying to talk to him, and that it was now understood in the West that Ukraine was not going to be possible to bring into NATO.

    He thinks eventually US and Russia become allies against China, and that China is a bigger threat to Russia than the US is. He didn't, however, see an offramp for the Ukraine crisis (speaking before the invasion).

    He said Trump, who wanted to be closer with Putin and pivot to Asia, didn't get his way, but then started to arm Ukraine, 'much tot he chagrin of Russia.'

    He noted the contemporary superhigh anti-Putin, anti-Russian sentiment in the US (both parties, and popularly). He didn't know why, except some guesses like remnant associations to do with the Cold War, Putin's always standing up to the US, that Putin heads an authoritarian state and his stance on homosexuality and other social issues. The invention of the Democrat's story that Hillary lost the election because the Russians manipulated the system and caused Trump to win the vote.

    He said NATO needs the Russian threat to exist. He said that as to the question of getting European nations to spend 2% on military, "Don't hold your breath." They're basically free-riders. Why spend that if the US is going to take care of you anyway? However, if the US pivots to Asia and 'leaves' Europe, and if Europe perceives Russia as a threat, then EU States would spend more on military. If they have to provide for their own defense. He drew a parallel to Japan, which free rode off the US until China grew to a size where it became a real threat. Japan now faces what they perceive to be an existential threat, and has started to talk more like a 'realist.'

    Talking about nuclear weapons, he said that although they have been a force for peace, a deterrent, they weren't much of a factor in Putin's then-possible invasion of Ukraine because the US (Biden) already said if Russia invaded US wouldn't do anything, and even if Americans IN Ukraine were threatened he wouldn't, so they're not really a deterrent in that case. He said what would keep Putin from invading was the costs (invasion, occupation) and the benefits of keeping on without invading (Russia doing well).

     
  • Economic consequences of Russian invasion of Ukraine, by Patrick Boyle

    US and allies are removing some Russian financial institutions from Swift, and imposing major restrictions on Russia's central bank.

    The R central bank has $640b in foreign exchange reserves, much held at various western central banks. But some is in Russia and in China (also not expected to be frozen). So they have about $240b in available reserves. The war costs an estimated $20b per day. This could cause bank runs, tank the Ruble, and cause panic among Russian businesses. 

    The US has previously imposed sanctions on the central banks of Iran, N Korea, and Venezuela.

    S&P lowered Russia's rating to junk (high borrowing rate), and Fitch lowered Ukraine's, and Moody's might do both.

    Russia produces 10m barrels per day of oil. Because Europe and other countries are dependent so heavily on Russian oil and gas, the reaction was slower to their invasion than might otherwise have been the case.

    Germany specifically. While 2022 was set to be the date for the shutting down of all nuclear power in Germany (it's down to 3 plants now and they're planned to shut this year), a plan started 20 years ago and fortified by sentiment after Fukushima in 2011. Also all of Europe has been reducing coal energy and other types like that, focusing on clean energy, but it hasn't happened very fast so they still depend heavily on Russian gas. That effects BP and Total Energy are exposed to Russian energy. BP owns almost 20% of Rosneft, an investment that sent $2.4b profits last year for BP.

    Increases in fertilizer prices, a secondary effect of sanctions of Russian gas exports, will push food prices up everywhere.

    Russia and Ukraine together make up about 1/3 of grain production in the world. Potatoes, sugar beets, sunflower oil also. Food factories are shutting down plants in Ukraine temporarily. There could be food shortages, potentially. Food shortages, which could affect Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Pakistan and Indonesia, could lead to political consequences like uprisings.

    Aluminum, dependent on electricity, 14% of world production in Russia (excluding China).

    Metal producers are cutting their output after natural gas prices shot up like 30%.

    Nickel (batteries), lots is produced in Russia. Palladium (catalytic converters, electrodes and electronics ie auto manufacturing countries like China and North America) too. Platinum (catalytic converters, lab equipment, electrical contacts and jewelry). C4F6 and Neon (semiconductors) are produced by both countries.

    Ukraine is a big producer of titanium (aircraft manufacturing, jewelry, phones, surgical tools).

    US started cutting banking exposure to Russia in 2014 (Crimean conflict), but Austria's Faiffeisen makes 1/3 of their profits in Russia, and some other European banks are also highly involved in Russia.

    UK airlines can't use Russian airspace right now to fly to China. Expected to be all of Europe soon.

      
  • Putin invaded Ukraine Feb 22, 2022

    The first time there's been war in Europe for a while. It's a controlled, limited invasion so far. Deaths are being counted in small numbers.

    Before invading, Putin placed 150k soldiers all around Ukraine and put his ships in the sea southeast of Ukraine.

    Ukrainians started fleeing to Poland and other neighboring countries. Ukraine passed a law forbidding men from leaving the country. News images of crying families.

    Russian tanks and weapons surrounded Kiev.

    Feb 27, Germany passes legislation which it would have been unthinkable it could/would pass before. It will build up its military and take moves to reduce its reliance on Russian gas.

    The German chancellor in a speech said that 'permanent security in Europe is not possible with Russia there,' and ' we find our self in a new age' and that people in Ukraine are fighting 'not just for their homeland but for liberty and democracy, for values that we share with them.'

    The German government will now commit $100b Euros more to buy military stuff. US and some other allies have for years been pushing Germany to spend more than 2% on defense, and this it the first time Germany is going to do that. The idea up until now was that Germany, after WWII, should never again wield military might because of the terrible suffering caused during that war.

    Some commenters say that the resistance Russia faced in trying to take Kharkhiv may have been a surprise for Russia, since there are strong Russian ties there (and one might assume it would be easier to take than other parts of Ukraine).

    Zelenskyy said "That night was hard. What did they do? This is revenge. The people rose to defend their State. They, the Russian army, showed their real face. This is terror. They are going to bomb our Ukrainian cities even more. They are going to kill our children even more in cities."

    Russia is basically just attacking military targets (it said it's hit almost 600 of its targets), such as energy sources, but some have landed in ways that have killed and maimed bystanders.

    Zelenskyy basically accused Belarus of being complicit, helping Russian forces enter from the northern border.

    There's a question about where the two leaders could meet to discuss end to the war. Ukraine rejected Belarus, but suggested Poland. Russia hasn't commented on that yet.

    There's a question about whether Putin calculated well. The clear weapon and military superiority it has over Ukraine allowed it to invade, and use air and ballistic power with effect, but troops walking across Ukraine, actual actions / occupation, it isn't clear Russia will be able to. Also there's a question about how popular this action really is even in Russia. How many fallen Russian soldiers will the country take?

    Klaus Wittmann said he expected a prolonged, underground war, house to house, street to street, where you don't know where snipers or anti-tank attacks might come from. Probably much higher motivation on the side of the defenders. He referred to the Chechen War.

    Russian oligarchs lost around $126b in their value ($40b was the day of the invasion), it was reported.

    Protests have taken place in various places around the world in support of Ukraine. 20-30k estimated participation (but they way the reported said that might make you doubt there was that many really) of one in Berlin, bigger than ones the previous days. It is considered not just a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but an international conflict. Reportedly, they support supplying Ukraine with weapons.

    Feb 22, 2014 was the day Yanukovich fled Ukraine for Eastern Ukraine (and after that to Russia), and the protesters were said to be in control of Kiev. The Ukrainian parliament voted to impeach Yanukovich and scheduled new presidential elections.




      
  • Feb, 2022
  • Feb 01, 2022
  • Lots of US headlines about Russia's possible invasion of Ukraine

  • World population might peak by mid-century and return to around current size by 2100 - Dr Darrell Bricker

    He guesses 2040's will be the beginning of population decline, with the last of the boomers. 2030's will be a largescale retirement.

    We thought the pandemic would lead to a baby boom. Instead, fertility rates depressed. Counties that depend on migration for population also have growth disrupted as travel was more difficult.

    China, the world's largest country with 1.4b people, is projected to lose almost half its population size this century. India, which has 1.4 also, will lose 290m in the century. USA with 330m will rise about 11m.

    Urbanization has a major affect on fertility, and therefore on population. On the farm children are extra hands; in the city they're more expense. We'll have an older, less fertile population.

    Almost 60% of people live in cities, and that will be around 70% by 2050. This will be moreso in Asia and Africa (China will be 80% urban, it's presumed; Japan is currently 92% urban and might go to 95%). Less in North America and Europe (already quite urbanized).

    The changing role of women is a major factor. Women are the majority of university students in the first world (most countries), and so delay marriage or children till their late 20s or early 30s. It's said that the best thing to look at to guess a country's fertility rate, it's the education rate of women.

    Societies don't value large families nowadays either.

    The fertility rate in 1960 was 5.2, and it's 2.3 or 2.4 now. Expected to be 2.2 in 2050. Japan is 1.4 right now. Russia about the same. Deaths per year in Russia outnumber births by about 1m. Russia has a median age of 40 currently, and Japan 48. USA is 38, a year less than China's 39. African countries are younger, although their growth is also slowing (but much less than elsewhere).

    In the modern era, no country that has fallen below population replacement fertility of 2.1 has been able to get back above it.

    To put the US in context, though, compared with Russia and Japan, you have to consider that if the US didn't have largescale immigration, it would not be growing either. Note that US is still by far considered the most desirable country to relocate to, and is the population with the most immigrants.

    An older population is also more female (since males are more likely to die of just about every cause of death except for things men can't die from because they don't have the body parts). Over the age of 40, there are less men and more women. At age 100 it's 5 to 1.

    There might be a population bust by 2050. Less consumption (neither older people nor robots buy as much as younger). Less innovation (it is guessed).

    In the US and Canada, the most common household is a person living by themself. At the start and at the end of their adult life.

    Female cosmetic surgery, supporting money, transportation from countryside. Reduced pressures. More things for families. Robots as consumers.

     
  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 13, 2022
  • 'When a member of [US] Congress goes to Taiwan and declares that she is now in the Republic of Taiwan, that's terribly provocative"

    ... and who ends up getting hurt in that situation? It's the people of Taiwan. If there is ever a military conflict there, even if it's turned back, thousands of people in Taiwan will die. And members of Congress ought to be aware of that simple truth. - Joseph Fewsmith

  • Jan, 2022
  • Jan 03, 2022
  • Myanmar coup fighting continues

    Reports have it that the military who took power by force are not doing so well to consolidate power. Fighting continues. Defections continue into the People's Defense Forces. Becoming something of a civil war.

    Possible US tactics, they're currently coming up with a plan at Congress: Squeeze oil and gas revenues (which go to military). Possibly, US could accuse them of genocide (Ryohinga also a possibility), although the military is killing all groups including their own.

    People already people suffering from lack of food, etc., but the strategy of resistance is to sort of destroy the economy and accept what comes along with it, to squeeze the military government in power.
     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 29, 2021

  • DoD fails another audit

    Fourth in a row I think. But it's 'getting closer.' Current budget is $724b. It doesn't track well it's spending at an enterprise (overall) level.

    This is up since the 80s, but as a percentage of GDP it is lower than the 80s. It's currently between 3 and 4% of GDP (was about 5%).

    Some (?) is debt-financed. Some is misallocated.

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 28, 2021
  • Omer Barlev, Israel's minister of public security, says he fears Israeli threats

    ... and is receiving 24/7 protection.

    He spoke against settler violence by Israelis, and received threats. He blamed another political party for making him the enemy of settlers.

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 10, 2021
  • US companies, mandated by Biden to impose vaccines on employees, give employees 2 forms

    ... one they sign to say they will get vaccinated, and another to say that if the vaccine causes a negative reaction the won't sue the company.
     

  • 92% of Americans have immunity now

    ... either from natural or vaccine antibodies.
  • Brazil health ministry loses all vaccination data

    ... in a 'hack' which many consider likely an inside job by the government, since Bolsonaro doesn't want vaccine passports.

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 07, 2021
  • "So many people, including smart people, think that there are too many people in the world and think that the population is growing out of control. It's completely the opposite. Please look at the numbers. If people don't have more children, civilization is going to crumble. Mark my words" - Elon Musk

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 06, 2021
  • US won't send officials (diplomats) to Beijing Olympics

    ... because, it says, of China's genocide (Uighurs not Tibetans), crimes against humanity, and other human rights abuses.

    Support came from both sides of the Congressional isle.

    US Athletes are still going.

    In 1980, US officials AND athletes weren't allowed to go to the Moscow Summer Games, due to, the US said, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Russia refused to come to the Summer Games in the US in 1984.

     
  • Dec, 2021
  • Dec 05, 2021
  • 'Transnational repression'

    'You are not allowed to be a popular person who is not working for them. Either you are their friend or you are their enemy, and that's it. You are their enemy because you tell what they don't want to be told.' - the guy they made Hotel Rwanda about, now a political activist outside of Rwanda, Paul Rusesabagina.

    Rwanda got him. He was living as a legal resident in Texas, and tried to fly to Burundi through Dubai for something. He boarded a private plane in Dubai but it took him instead to Rwanda. (Admitted by Rwanda's justice minister) the Rwandan government paid for that plane. He was charged with terrorism and other crimes. However, from reports I saw he might have actually been funding and founding groups politically active in Rwanda. I can't comment on whether you would want to call them 'terrorist.'

    One of his daughters also was a target. Reportedly, the government hacked her phone and used it to listen in on her life, including meetings with lawyers.

    Transnational repression is the word people are using for part of this. Where governments use threats, intimidation, violence, assassination and murder to silence critics even when they're not in the country. Freedom House documents this.

    Some lawyers say he was kidnapped (by means of his illegal rendition to Rwanda). The government did not present a formal request for rendition, because, some lawyers say, this would have never passed a judge's test, and this is why they didn't do it legally (due process).

    His family is suing the private airline.

     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 24, 2021
  • USA added to 'backsliding democracies' list of IDEA think tank

    ... who says a visible deterioration began in 2019, and that an important point was when Trump questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election results (when he lost).

    The list is based of 50 years of democratic indicators in 150 countries.

  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 19, 2021
  • Israel's bombing of Gaza media tower further called into question

    On May 15, Israel bombed the Al Jalaa Tower (media tower) in Gaza which housed international media outlets (including AJ, AP, and Middle East Eye).

    To justify doing so to the US, Israel (internal intelligence agency) gave the US a file on the situation. The US wasn't satisfied and asked for further info on how the building was linked to Hamas etc. Israel handed the US a second report that closed the gaps " " of the first file.

    However, now Israeli newspaper Haaretz has reported that the file was 'retroactively edited.' An allegation in this is that Israel did know there was media organizations in the building although they claimed they didn't, or something like that.

     
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 15, 2021
  • Delhi air pollution very high, and the city commands some work from home

    Schools go back online, construction work banned, government offices go remote.

    The air is toxic there most of the year (air quality around 500), and when temps dip like now it's worse. Farm fires in neighboring states has increased recently.

     
  • Xi extended his rule 5 more years

    Was due to end his term.

  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 13, 2021
  • Mysterious blasts in China?

    WION reported that there have been 10 high-intensity blasts in 7 days across China. No real info from China on the blasts.


    Why is China not talking about the mysterious blasts?
  • Nov, 2021
  • Nov 07, 2021
  • Reportedly, Iraq PM subject of attempted assassination

    By drone attack / 'cowardly rocket'. In the Green Zone.

    No one claimed responsibility, but militants are one of the main suspects.

     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 22, 2021
  • "For Chile's largest indigenous group, the Mapuches, this is the latest chapter in a 500 year conflict for control of their ancestral land.

    "In the late 1800's, the Chilean state took away most of it and gave it to Chilean and European farmers, plunging the Mapuche's into poverty until this day. Now younger, more radical Mapuche's are taking up arms to expel forestry companies and large land owners.

    "Highways are no longer safe. Countless agricultural equipment has been destroyed. While Mapuche communities take over land.

    "A Chilean farmer was the latest to die after his house was set ablaze by an armed group."

    This was how AJ reported it.

    Chile has declared a state of emergency.
     
  • Oct, 2021
  • Oct 13, 2021
  • China making more moves toward unification with Taiwan

    Last week China flew a bunch of war jets over Taiwan.

    Xi made new comments China would unify with Taiwan, the day before Taiwan's national day. In the past, Xi has threatened he might take Taiwan by force, but the recent statements were considered to be much softer than that.

    One way to view Taiwan is as another province like those that have already been returned to China (Hong Kong and Macao in the 90s). A breakaway province.

     
  • French forces prepare to close bases in Mali


  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 30, 2021
  • "Possibly the single greatest risk to human civilization is the rapidly diminishing growth rate. And the facts are out there for anyone to look at. But a lot of people are still stuck with Paul Illick's book Population Bomb, and it's like, uh, that was a long time ago. That is not the case today. And there was a massive notch in demographics last year because the growth rate plummeted, and also this year." - Elon Musk at CodeCon 2021 (September)

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 20, 2021
  • US deporting the 10k Haitian immigrants in Texas

    ... on direct flights to Port au Prince. The task of rounding them up is with the border patrol in large part. Photos of them on horseback with some kind of whip have been viral images.

    "We do not know who are the smugglers or who are the migrants," said the Border Patrol Chief.

    The government is deporting 'single adults' while allowing families and children to stay for their trials.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 17, 2021
  • 13k Haitian migrants cross border into small town in Texas

    A few more thousand might still arrive. The town has only about 3x that many people itself. They're cooking food to feed the large group (mostly Haitians). They're living under a bridge. Looked like it was mostly black men, but there were a few black women and little children in there. It seems reporters were not allowed near them.

    Haiti is in a significant crisis right now (still).

    Losers from the we win while you lose strategy?

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 13, 2021
  • Some say US is behind Guinea coup

    ... because Green Berets have been in Guinea since mid-July training a group of 100 Guineans in a special forces unit led by Colonel Doumbouya, a Guinean and French citizen who'd served in the Foreign Legion. Doumbouya is currently the leader of Guinea.

    The US gov initially downplayed involvement but after a phone vidoe came out on Social the US confirmed some parts but denied it implied support for the coup.

    There have been about 80 successful coups in sub-Saharan Africa in the past 40 years, some say.


    A tweet by someone:


     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 11, 2021
  • Lavrov on US adventures over the past 20 years

    "We have seen it in Libya, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. ... Nothing good came out of the four military campaigns I mentioned. ... There has been a surge in terrorism, an unprecedented growth in drug trafficking. Illegal immigrants have been flooding Europe since NATO bombed the Libyan state to dust. ..."

  • Typical Afghanistan news on YT, Sept 11, 2021

    There's a lot of news on the US (and allies) in Afghanistan right now. I think maybe people almost forgot about Afghanistan, they got so used to it, but now with the sudden moves what is left is quite impressive. It's the 20-year anniversary of the World Trade Center event, which many people do not believe the official story. Documents are reported to be soon declassified by Biden.

    Image shows a news story about a base left by the US, and the comments show the general feeling on the events now.




     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 10, 2021
  • Mike Wallace (MEP from Ireland) on Afghanistan, Sept 1 2021 in the European Parliament

    "Do you think we can learn the lessons without telling the truth about the last 20 years? The last 20 year war in Afghanistan is a lie. The Americans lied to their people. The Americans spent over $2.2t dollars, and over $2t of it went to private contractors. They used the war as a way of funneling US taxpayers money to private entities.

    "What did the EU do with our money? Where did it go? How much did the EU spend in Afghanistan in the 20 years? Apart from enriching the families connected to the government, what else did we do with it? How much evidence have you got of the infrastructure you kept talking about?

    "Before the Taliban took over, the number of Afghans living in poverty in Afghanistan has doubled since 2001. A third have no food. Half of them have no drinking water. And two-thirds have no electricity. Before the rise of the Taliban, who grew from US-and-Saudi-funded Mujahedeen, half of Afghan university students were women. 40% of the countries doctors were women. 70% of their teachers were women. 30% of their civil servants were women.

    "Look at the place now. We've helped to destroy it. Are we going to tell the truth about it? Or are we going to pretend, 'Ah, we were really doing loads for womens' rights and we were sorting things out, only things didn't work out right in the end'?

    "Did the EU people know what was going on, or not? And if you didn't know, why didn't you know? And is there anyone going to be held accountable for the amount of EU money that's been spent in that place, and you have nothing to show for it?"


    "La guerra en Afganistán es una mentira": discurso de Mick Wallace en el Parlamento Europeo - YT  
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 09, 2021
  • Women activists and Taliban in Afghanistan

    Some news images of officials moving protesting women by using (looks like flogging-type) whips.

    Women's rights activists said they looked to the international community community to uphold their rights guaranteed by their religion.

    Western news has been carrying news the Taliban is 'beating' journalists and 'whipping' women protesters. However, women are still going to work and school (although there are reports that in some regions they might not be as much, and that university students are being segregated by sex, like they were before in the other types of schools).

    We don't have a clear picture of what's going on yet.

     
  • Sep, 2021
  • Sep 07, 2021
  • Afghanistan new PM

    Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, from Akhund tribe in the south, where many Taliban come from, was one of the founding members of the Taliban and headed the Rahbari shura leadership council.

    Supreme leader will be Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada, reportedly a reclusive person.
     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 31, 2021
  • The more the Taliban become pragmatic, the more they're going to lose people, and that's what ISIS is counting on - Kamran Bokhari

    Taliban are now gearing into pragmatism because they have to govern.

    This is a fluidic battle space ... hardliners can become disillusioned very easily if Taliban start to make compromises on ideology.

    We saw this in Syria. There were multiple groups that were not ISIS but they lost a lot of fighters to ISIS over the years.

    There are always going to be people who sympathize with this project. - Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi

     
  • $9b in Afghan reserves held outside US

    Afghanistan is highly dependent on US and other countries. If the government meets what US and others want it to meet, US might release these foreign currency reserves. Some say they don't even have funds to pay government workers there.

    A lot of Afghani investors are also currently out of the country.

     
  • Coronavirus shift in thinking

    Just recently, the thinking seems to now be that everyone is going to get it, since vaccinated people are getting it.

    Shift in focus will now be towards preparing people to not get a severe case. The vaccinations are thought to prevent severe infection often.

    Dr John Campbell said the virus has a limited number of mutations possible, but Prof Pollard thinks more infections variants could come about.

     
  • A former aide of Osama Bin Laden, Muhammad Amin-ul-Haq, has reportedly returned to his native Nangarhar province for the first time in 20 years after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan.

    "He served as head of Bin Laden’s security in Tora Bora following the 2001 US-led invasion." - TRT

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 30, 2021
  • Rocket strike near Kabul airport and reports of children dead

    A car was destroyed. No one officially claimed responsibility for the reported rocket attacks. People reported hearing gunfire afterwards. The report that 3 children died is from Afghan officials and also some people on the ground there said it.

  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 29, 2021
  • Afghanistan Questions

    1. Zahir Shah made moves toward (Western style) civil rights, women in workplace, democracy, etc. Does that represent a significant strain in Afghani thought or culture (toward liberalization) or an outlier?

    2. Zahir Shah was not able (or willing) to return to the country after the coup (until 2002 under US occupation). What does that mean for opposition parties in Afghanistan?

    3. Will Afghan's strength against invasion forces (decentralized, strong belief) (Soviets couldn't negotiate/bargain with Mujahedeen, and had to fight with dozens of separate militias with distinct tactics and strategies) be tempered with modernization?

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 28, 2021
  • Lots of reporting on who profited from the Afghan war

    Lockheed, General Dynamics, Ratheon, Northrop Grumman are reported on, since their stocks are up between a few hundred and a thousand (10x) percent since 2001, and most have military or ex-military on their boards.

    However, 10x over 20 years doesn't seem like such a big deal. Tech stocks are up more than that, and probably lots of regular stocks. Amazon is up 1700% since 2011, not 2001. Facebook and Apple are up 10x from their IPOs, too, from 2012 and 2011.

     
  • Two bombs at Kabul Airport

    Two spots just outside the airport, one at an entrance and another at the Baron hotel. A dozen US troops reportedly were killed and some civilians, I think.

    Biden: "For those who carried out this attack, as well as anyone who wishes American harm, know this: We will not forgive. We will not forget. We will hunt you down and make you pay."

    Biden is reportedly Catholic, though, so these words might sound a little strange.

    Some are saying Taliban, whose role it was as the government (for the past less than 2 weeks) to secure the airport, and now they're being questioned whether they're able to carry out that role, as if anyone can prevent that sort of attack.

    A Taliban spokesman said, "Killing innocent civilians is an act of terrorism that has to be condemned by the entire world. And as soon as the airport situation is figured out, and the foreign forces leave, hopefully we will not have such attacks anymore. It is--again--it is because of the presence of foreign forces that such attacks take place."

    Western countries have evac'ed over 100k people in the past little while.

    As a response to the the ariport bombing attacks, the US reported using a drone strike to kill some IS-K notables in another region. IS-K reportedly claimed responsibility for the airport bombing attacks. (Taliban said the US should have them before the US did this drone strike.)

    The US wouldn't identify who the IS-K dead were by name, only saying they were planning future attacks. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby:

    "I am not gonna talk about specific capabilities ISIS might have lost in this strike. They lost a planner and they lost a facilitator and they got one wounded. And the fact that two of these individuals are no longer walkin' on the face of the earth, that's a good thing. It's a good thing for the people of Afghanistan and it's a good thing for our troops and our forces at that airfield and I think I'm just gonna leave it there."

    Many people immediately raised doubts about these events, since they give such a convenient pretext for anything the US may want to do (including changing evac plans). We wait and see whether US will allow Afghanistan to have peace or a chance to try to have their country.

    Why would IS-K want to do it? Would they want US to not leave? Do they fear Taliban will be hard on them if Taliban are left to control the country?

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 27, 2021
  • $2t is how much US spent on Afghanistan war

    $300m per day for 20 years.

    $800b in direct warfighting costs. $85b to train the Afghan army. $750m per year for Afghan army salaries.

    This money was borrowed as loans, reportedly. Cha-ching for those banks. "This country is unconquerable, you say? so we can just fight it indefinitely?" Thanks, taxpayers, we'll service those loans.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 26, 2021
  • Zabiullah Mujahid, Taliban Spokesman, government of IAEA, in a TRT interview on One on One

    "We had considered appearing in front of the media if we survived, but we thought we'd be killed before our struggle ended, because we were under a lot of threats. For example, I had a phone, and there were American drones above me, ready to drop bombs. I faced many such dangers. So, we never imagined we would survive this long. I always believed we would succeed in our struggle and one day, rid Kabul and all of Afghanistan from the occupation forces. Afghanistan is only for Afghans. We always believed in this. But I never thought I'd live to see that day. I think God for keeping me alive, but I pray for him to fulfill my wish of martyrdom one day. For now, I think we have been given a chance to serve the people, to fulfill all the promises we made to Afghans, and to keep our word to them. We will work hard to find a way to solve people's problems, anywhere, anytime. We have to answer to God and the people."

    "I guess I had always thought I would be martyred in this war. I never thought I would live to see the revolution suceed. Because as I said before I was always in danger. I couldn't even switch my phone on for an hour because the Americans can easily track anyone on a cellular network and capture or kill them. I thought I'd be martyred that way. It was a very difficult position to be in but I was not afraid. I always wanted to be counted amongst the martyrs. But God had different plans for me. This is also one of his blessings, that he wants me to do good. And I hope we can achieve our goals. We always pray for martyrdom."

    "No one wants to live under the transgressions of an occupying force."

    "If we are terrorists why have we not killed anyone [in the 10 days since entering Kabul]? There is no terrorism here as you can see."

    "We were fighting against foreign occupiers and their puppet regime."

    "The Americans started this war. They attacked us, and got what they deserved. The Americans failed in their mission. The world has seen how they left Afghanistan in a failed state. The situation is not good for the United States. The United States destroyed its reputation in the eyes of the world. THe United States showed its real face to the world. We also saw what they did in Guantanamo and Bagram prisons. They claim to be defenders of human rights, but the world has seen the reality of these tall claims. We saw how the United States conducted itself during war. We have witnessed their reality first-hand."

    "How could they [the Americans] have controlled Afghanistan when they can't even control the airport?"

    "The Americans want Afghans to be dispossessed in refugee camps without a clear future. Thousands of people have been forced to leave without a clear future. Families are being torn apart. Fathers and sons separated."

    "This is a huge issue and hindrance for Afghanistan. Doctors, engineers, teachers, and scholars [fled Afghanistan]. They are the cream of Afghan society. Afghanistan has been in war for a long time. So we have very few skilled professionals. Our motherland needs these skilled professionals."

    "The British want Americans to fail. They want more war. Americans have made the most sacrifices compared to their allies. British political leaders want the war to continue. We remember British leader Tony Blair encouraging Americans to go to war with the Afghans in 2001, and left the Americans alone. ... War benefits no one, but if they want war, they will get war."

    "As I said before, Afghans will not submit to pressure by any country [regarding sanctions]. ... I think Afghanistan should form a diplomatic relation with the US. It's good to listen to one another and work out our differences to find solutions. They bombed us for 20 years. They kept putting our people in agony. Stop this cruelty. Our people have lost patience. We can solve our differences in a diplomatic way. There is no other way except this."

    "Over time, we observed how systems in different Afghan cities operate. We have returned with this knowledge to improve things."

    "... all those opposed to us--the police, the army, and others, have been safe. ... We have enemies here we fought for 20 years, but no one has been touched."

    "Amrullah Saleh [a politician who claimed the office of acting president when president Ghani fled] also says he wants to fight, but like his predecessor, he can't afford to go to war. He will fail. Anyone would. He should not risk the lives of ordinary Afghans. The people of Afghanistan don't want war. ..."

    "We have maintained that we want good relations with Turkey [the only Islamic NATO member] so they could share their immense experience with us, and similarly, if they could provide economic support, we would welcome it."

    "Pakistan's role in Afghanistan is that of a good neighbor. ... We do not stand by the asuumption that Pakistan has stood with us, or given us an ideology and support. This news is just not correct, and has been part of a propaganda for 20 years. It will be proven that Pakistan is our neighbor, nothing more. We want good relations with them. ... because they are our neighbors."

    "They have frozen our funds [$10b of Afghan reserves] despite the current situation. We request the United States to release our national funds and give Afghanistan the money it desperately needs. I say the general situation will get better."

    ---

    The same day Western news was plastered with 'an explosion at Kabul airport.' Reports have it 13 are dead, including 4 US servicemen (the first to die in the country in a while). The Biden Whitehouse called it a 'complex attack.' Experts say it will now be more difficult to withdraw by Aug 31 [the deadline, but news has for a week or more been asking whether that could be extended, seeming like the US wants to but the Taliban says no] and also more difficult to engage in some retaliatory military action 'against terrorist targets on the ground.' At least that is the line many Western media are publishing. I don't see how that makes sense. Why does Biden need to militarily respond to an attack on their occupation force after 20 years of fighting? IS claimed they did it, and Taliban condemned it.

    ---

    So Afghanistan now has a government that has been working very hard for 20 years, thinking about and testing ideas in their minds, living under constant possibility of death and accepting it, and believing in their goal, which they have been considering and refining, pondering questions of actions.

    Will they be allowed by the US and others to do whatever they intend to do?


    YT: Zabiullah Mujahid, Taliban Spokesman  
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 24, 2021
  • Putin's criticism of Western policy towards fleeing Afghanis

    The West wants to relocate them to Afghanistan's neighboring countries. He said it was a security issue that directly affects Russia.

    'So, it's possible to send them to these other countries, our neighbors, without visas, but they don't want to take them in themselves without visas? It's a humiliating approach to this issue.'

  • Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

    ... is how the Taliban refer to their conquest

    Movement in the city: Cars drive around, people walk around (you could assume life as usual is continuing). Taliban ride around in pickup trucks with large guns. They say there is a general amnesty, everyone is forgiven, even militants and the Afghan army. Large military evacuations take place in big planes overhead. Taliban around the airfield area have reportedly announced a ban on Afghans from entering that area.

     

  • Some 'focussed protection' advocates signed this white paper.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 23, 2021
  • Afghanistan and Vietnam, Assange 'endless war'

    Many over the past week or two since the Taliban's swift occupation of Kabul have looked at the saddening images of Afghanis attempting to board and hold onto fleeing US transport planes, some falling to their death, and comparing it to the US withdrawal from Vietnam, which produced similar scenes on the day of departure.

    'There are parallels in that it is the most extraordinary humiliation of the West. And the imagery is the same. But the total difference is the Americans were forced to leave South Vietnam. They were hemorrhaging lives. It was an incredibly toxic political issue. There were hundreds of thousands of people in the streets, demonstrating, demanding withdrawal. And it was one of the most costly interventions the Americans did. And they couldn't fight the North Vietnamese army. This is ... totally different. 2500 soldiers. Almost no casualties. Almost no cost. And a little bit of air support. They weren't driven out of the country. They could've remained indefinitely.' - British MP Rory Stewart, who has been involved in Afghanistan for decades

    I think people are a bit surprised and confused at the moment, given how quickly it seems to have happened (despite the months-long process), and are thinking about what it means for their assessment of America.

    The war was supposed to be so direly necessary, an existential threat, the most expensive overseas base ever, and, although very few US soldiers died (none in the past 18 months), suddenly it was just of no importance to the West, according to some critics.

    Many have also been referencing and republishing an old Assange interview in which he said the Americans never wanted the war to be won, but instead wanted an endless war to wash money out of the tax base in the US and Europe and through Afghanistan and back into the hands of the transnational security elite, etc. These voices also point to the recent Biden speech in which he 'reaffirmed his support for war' in saying they were pulling out of Afghanistan but were going to still be fighting other fights, and mentioned Somalia, Yemen, and Syria.

    I don't know but it sort of feels like it might have been a real turning point in American history. And also for the West by extension, as everyone was politically on that side of things and so their actions reflect on all the Western countries, I guess.

    The next time America wants to go to war, whatever reason it gives, who will believe them? What credibility or store of trust do they have left? With Afghanistan, is it a case where the people who wanted the war, whether for money profit or political cause or whatever other reason, got their way, but at the expense of America's last shreds of integrity? Will they find any allies to join them? nevermind the response of non-allies. Or perhaps the question is what new reason will it come up? The Soviets, the spread of Communism, the War on Drugs, Terrorism, ...

    Is the time in which America had the chance to lead the world (which started with its military heroism against aggressors and its creation of ideas like legal human and civil rights and national treaty alliances) over? And if it is over, is it because of a deeper issue, that perhaps it was impossible for it to be positive in a general sense, due to the accommodation within the system of individuals or small groups who wanted to abuse all others for whatever profit, and perhaps the idea of attempting leadership was seen as futile by those close enough to the center, and perhaps those who saw it in some sense wanted its end?

    On the other hand, this total loss of credibility of the US gov may finally embolden politicians at the state and local levels, as well as organizations like the National Guard, to take positions against them. or to take positions just generally more in favor of the general welfare and good, and to try to make some headway towards a nation with some integrity again. Afghanistan may come to serve as the example used why you must never let your government, even under the auspices of the greatest threats it wants to say, pass laws and treat citizens and nations in the way that has become common there in the past 20 years.

    Good follows evil. Evil has the ability to appear to us as good, which is why we participate in it, but once time passes it plays itself out and we see the fools we've been. It's said that in medieval days the greatest attribute a man could possess was a good memory. Perhaps a memory to be able to recall to the level of persuasion of ourselves and others a great number of these pairs.

    Another possibility is that the work is done. Not Afghanistan, but the general existential and political threats that perhaps existed in the 90s or 2000s with developing Islamic nations seem neutralized now. Iraq and Afghanistan and other nations, which alternatively could have risen to more power and organization, are now put in a place where they're not really seen as a military or political threat to the West or anyone else.

    Many people think there was a deal made between the Taliban and the US government, otherwise things wouldn't be going the way they're going.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 19, 2021
  • Words used about Afghanistan

    Escape, to describe how the US left

    Walk over, to describe the Taliban's easy victory

    Face saving, to describe the US motivation

    Coward and priveleged, to describe exiled (ex) president Ashraf Ghani (who fled to UAE in a helicopter, reportedly with a lot of cash, which he denied taking large sums of cash)

     
  • Afghanistan questions

    Will there be a civil war or will Taliban go for a political settlement between the two longstanding groups (Taliban's Sharia followers VS liberal, marxist, democratic, more secular Islamist 'Afghan government' -- both groups nationalist)?

    Will Taliban attack across the Durand line into Pakistan (in Balochinstan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa), who they see as playing both sides for years (being a middle man and getting $$ for American involvement in Afghanistan against the Soviets while training Islamist fighters (Mujaheddin) and sheltering Taliban leaders after 911). Is there any chance of a Pakistan-Taliban reunion after their contentious history?

    Will Kabul become part of the Belt and Road (India does not want that)

    How will India deal with the strict Sunni Taliban? It's expected it will be difficult, despite longstanding good relations between the two

    How will China, Pakistan, India and Afghanistan fight among each other in the relative chaos after the US withdraws?

    What conflict will US enter/initiate next to continue their narrative as global savior, etc.?

    How will Taliban pursue their goal of an Islamic state?

    How many will leave as refugees?

    Will Taliban really be more lenient as they seem to be saying, and not seek revenge for those they used to compete against? Will they really allow women more rights? Right now many people are too afraid to even leave their houses, while others are out on the streets taking photos and shaking hands with Taliban (moreso young people).

    How will any Taliban possibly take over positions such as governorships, etc., without any training, although they are currently taking lots of photos in these offices? (On the other hand, Afghans hate their now-fled president and their old government for its corruption and incompetence).

    Which countries will (which one could) recognize Taliban when it means they will go into the blacklist of the FATF? Will even China to it?

    How much support does Taliban really have in villages (it's thought they have lots in rural areas) and cities? They offer security, will they be able to provide it meaningfully? Will anyone try to disrupt their ability to deliver this to people.

    Did the governments involved already come to an agreement before the withdrawal?


    India com: If Taliban Kills me, Will Consider it my 'Seva'
     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 18, 2021
  • China repositions government philosophy

    Before, China was allowing some individuals to 'get rich first' with big companies, but now is shifting to 'proserity for all.'

    It's expected the CCP will have more say in companies and companies will have to fall in line.

    Xi recently said people should shun 'unreasonable' or 'excessive' income, and that the rich should 'give back to society more.'

    This means lower education costs, caps on the commission ride share companies can take (done through transport ministry) to keep transportation costs lower, and higher wages for workers.

    China is also going to do a 'consumer data' data privacy internet bill.

     
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 17, 2021
  • China '3 mountains'

    Education, health care, and property. These are burdens for the common Chinese person.

    China has announced some new areas for new regulations: Education tech, internet, property, and food delivery. Those four.

    Also e-cigs, growth hormones, liquor and online insurance.

    It's the first time any of these sectors have been regulated in China.

    Next year is an election year, and commenters say China sees the big companies that are profiting in these sectors as being in the way of the government reaching its goal of common prosperity and elimination of social unrest.

     
  • Material worth of Afghanistan

    More than $3t of minerals (other, older report $1t), one province, Ghanzi, has $1t lithium deposit (largest in world). Estimates.

    China will fill the vacuum left by the US withdrawal. China has already said they will recognize the Taliban as the official government.

    Some have pointed out there may be a fundamental difference in the ability/willingness of China (versus the US) to deal with Afghanistan, considering possible human rights issues.

    Afghanistan's eastern arm borders Xinjiang. What will be the Taliban's response to that region? While they are fellow Muslims, many have raised a point that many of the groups, Taliban or otherwise, may be to a significant degree interested in political warmongering for control of wealth/resources. Others have raised the point that China may attempt to do it's familiar debt-trap diplomacy (if that is really a thing).

    Right now about 85% of the processing of Afghanistan's rare earth minerals is owned by China, who got ahead of the US decades ago (US playing catchup in this) when they saw the future in this business. Will China do like they did and do in Congo, where they give the local government a big cut while they extract the minerals and ship them to China for processing. This might solve the Taliban's supposed challenges in making money off their mineral wealth due to lack of infrastructure (and perhaps political sanctions?). A Taliban protectorate for Chinese mining zones has been suggested.

    Afghanistan is highly dependent on foreign aid and that is expected to remain the case. IMF funds reserved for the country are expected to remain so.

    Will some moralizing nations refuse to accept rare earth minerals from countries whose policies (human rights, aggressive threats) they disapprove of, as was done in South Africa?

      
  • Aug, 2021
  • Aug 06, 2021
  • Venezuela: opposing parties to meet

    ... Maduro and Guaido will meet in Mexico, they say, to try to resolve things.

    Guiado's power has waned over the past years, and his popularity has sunk, and international governments are starting to turn away from their recognition of him as leader. It didn't happen that they were able to get Maduro out of power. The US and some other countries want 'free and fair elections' in Venezuela, which would give a winner validity in international eyes.

    Maybe Guiado wants to meet just to ensure his party's survival, some have commented.

    All parties are unpopular with the people in Venezuela.

  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 27, 2021
  • China has 400m in what they call their middle class

    ... and 1b in poverty.

    China has to find a way to stop social unrest through government, it is thought, when the gap between haves and have-nots increases too much.

    The poor have to pay more for basic staples, energy, and middle class can't move up because asset prices are moving quickly.

     
  • Chinese government aiming at wealth

    The CCP has been cracking down on all fast-growing sectors. Any sector or company with large growth over the past years.

    They don't want too much wealth accumulation or wealth inequality, reportedly. They're seeking an equality in the society.

    It makes it more difficult for investors, because they don't know what to price in to their estimates.

    No one knows what other regulations will be coming from the party.

    The thing started with Ant group a few months ago. Recently, the whole tutoring sector. Some investors think the next sector might be health care. Large US investors are starting to pull out of investment in China, it has been reported.

    'The Chinese party has shown you who they are and what they care about,' said Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital, who thinks China is hoping people will stop investing in Chinese companies in the US and start investing in Chinese companies in Hong Kong, as China says HK will adjust it's listing requirements to make it easier for Chinese companies to list there.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 25, 2021
  • Tajikistan holds nationwide military drills in face of emergent Taliban

    #Afghanistan #Taliban #Tajikistan
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 13, 2021
  • Biggest riots in S Africa in years (since Apartheid maybe)

    High unemployment. Dissatisfaction with political leaders. But the riots erupted when former president (until 2018) Zuma started a 15-month prison sentence for contempt of court after refusing to appear at a corruption inquiry. The outrage by his supporters was compounded by anger over poverty and inequality.

    Shops, malls, warehouses completely ransacked. 72 reported dead (but I didn't hear how - I mean, were some just already enemies, etc.?).

    'It's over. It's over,' said one shop owner. 'I've got overheads. I owe banks money.'

    The government sent military (2000 soldiers, considered a small number) to some areas as police struggled. Sometimes police are just standing by as the looting goes on, and analysts say this has to do with the history of the ANC government and that they don't want to be seen shooting at black S Africans. Some owners, armed, tried to quell the looting themselves. Some are criticizing the government for not acting on the riots soon enough.

    Commenters alluded to a racial element, but none seemed willing to talk about that issue.

    They may now have food shortages due to the riots.

    The ANC government is saying people working for Zuma may be stoking the rioters.

    A random commenter said this: 'Learn from the Koreans in the LA Riots, 2 guys on the roof with sub machine gun and rifle. 3 guys on ground blocking door with Shotguns and pistols. The police are not going to help when the riots get out of control. No one died and their stores and markets were all saved.'

    But some commenters from within S Africa replied that it wasn't easy to get guns in S Africa and the authorities there 'are trying to remove the clause that allows for the purchase of firearms for self defence purposes from The Firearms Control Act.'

    None of the commenters from S Africa who large news sites tried to interview could comment anything of value, just repeat a few criticisms and restate obvious social conditions, and generally had to be cut off by the interviewing journalists.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 11, 2021
  • Maybe 1b shellfish died off Canadian shores due to June heat

    Highest recorded June temps.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 09, 2021
  • UAE princess capture helped by FBI, says USA Today investigation

    Reportedly, they gave the UAE gov the geolocation of Princess Sheikha Latifa's yacht as she fled the kingdom in 2018, after getting it from a US internet provider.

    Reports have it the FBI was misled by the UAE, that they had been told she was kidnapped.

    The US org might have broken protocol to do this, not first subpoenaing the provider.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 08, 2021
  • Last US troops leave Bagram Airfield in the night

    ... without telling the new Afghan commander.

    The base, about an hour away from Kabul, has made headlines over the years for horrible accounts of the US forces there torturing Afghanis, sometimes to death.

    The Afghan soldiers now guarding the base have said they look to the government and the village to support them with resources. 'the Americans destroyed everything here.' Much of the supplies (boots, exercise machines - The Americans took their sophisticated modern military tools) left by the troops has made it's way to scrapyards and second-hand shops.

    Some have said they are glad the Americans left, that now Afghanistan can have peace, which the Americans didn't bring.

     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 07, 2021
  • Suez Canal blocking ship released from Egypt's Canal Authority after agreeing to $1b fee.

    Six days the ship (Ever Given) blocked traffic. The traffic was valued at $10b per day. When the Suez Canal Authority dislodged the vessel, it held it until terms could be arranged, given the costs to the port itself (SCA eventually claimed it was around $550m, including costs to dislodge, various expenses, and financial damages).

    This will be billed to the ship's owners and insurers.

  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 03, 2021
  • African Islamist groups on rise

    ... in several countries across the Sahel and some other countries.

    Some analysts say the countries facing an IS threat are those with weak central governments.

    "Local populations are dissatisfied with how governments are delivering. Democracy has not worked for populations in that part of the country." : Bulama Bukarti, Senior Africa Analyst, Tony Blair Inst., who said that if the governments continue to not fund education and other services to create a more civil society, it will continue to be easy for extremist groups to exploit socioeconomic grievances to recruit young people into violence.

    Does it help or hurt, though, to keep calling these groups 'terrorists'? Are they not just non-government military groups?

  • Afghanistan after America

    Now it's the Afghan govt versus the Taliban, which is reported to be retaking ground, on the offensive. Since Biden announced the US's complete withdrawal a couple months ago, Taliban took about 1/4 (127, 10 of those again retaken by the Afghan military) of the districts of Afghanistan, where they are implementing Sharia and blocking media.

    Last US troops leave Sept 1 (the last 650 that remain, contra to the Doha agreement, after most of the 4000-strong force left), and then we'll really see what Taliban will do.

    "This land belongs to you and us," said an Afghan soldier, "The Russians were here and they left. Then the Americans came and now they have left. This country is ours, and we will protect it even without pay or equipment."

    Reports are that the Taliban aren't willing to go sit at the negotiating table, where Afghan govt negotiators are waiting.

    There are lineups at passport offices, people wanting to leave, remembering the 90s.
     
  • Jul, 2021
  • Jul 01, 2021
  • Starvation in Madagascar

    Worst drought in 40 years. Not enough rain again this year for a good harvest next season.

    People dying, skinny starving children. The lives of people based around looking for cactus leaves, to clean and eat, the only source of nutrition for many.

    Not much green land left. Dust.

    World Food Programme partnered with the Madagascar govt to do at least some aid.


     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 30, 2021
  • Rumsfeld died, age 88

    Forum boards were a list of comments that were either negative and critical of the harms he is believed to have caused, or dismissive or joking. I read through them and didn't see any on the other side of the fence.

  • Tigray forces reportedly gaining ground, pushing out Ethiopian government forces

    They took the regional capital, Mekele.

    The conflict is now in its eighth month. Thousands have died. Hundreds of thousands have fled. Many accusations of war crimes (Western definition). Dubious role of UN. Withdrawal of Eritrean forces towards north and south.

    Tigrayans celebrated in the streets. Motor parades of tuk-tuks and toyotas with people piled to overflowing, flags.

    Amnesty warned there may be reprisals against civilians by all involved parties to the conflict.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 29, 2021
  • US bombing in Iraq again

    ... without asking Congress, the Whitehouse bombed some targets (Kitab Hezbollah and Kitab Saeed Ashahada) on both sides of the Iraq-Syria border.

    The act may fall under jurisdiction that requires authorization under War Powers, but the White House didn't seek that from Congress.

    The DoD said they targeted Iran-backed militias who had used UAVs against US personnel and facilities in Iraq.

    Iraq's military condemned the act, saying it was a blatant violation of Iraqi sovereignty and national security.

    The popular mobilization forces are part of Iraq's security structure, so the US did bomb an ally, analysts say, although the US said those groups had attacked US targets first.

    Kitab Saeed Ashahada announced an open war again US targets in Iraq as a response.

    Biden's second use of military force.

     
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 26, 2021
  • Taliban taking new ground, reportedly

  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 22, 2021
  • West's continued use of sanctions has less effect, according to Prof at U of South-Eastern Norway Glenn Diesen

    ... as the international system becomes more multi-polar. For example, Belarus, recently sanctioned by the EU for its human rights violations (following their grounding of a plane to arrest a Belarussian blogger), has other options in Russia. The US also sanctioned Myanmar following the coup, but they also have access to China and Russia.

    The hope with sanctions is that by undermining the whole economy of a country the population made to suffer will put pressure on their government to change. It is considered by some to have worked on Iran following the first Gulf War. There are also economic consequences in other countries including the one doing the sanctioning, such as in the US where the price of gas is driven up in line with sanctions on Iran. Thereby, such sanctions can end up helping other countries that may not be allies. It can also lead to negative consequences for the sanctioning country when it imposes sanctions on other countries for things it also does but expects to not be criticized for (many have pointed out that the US and EU also grounded a plane in 2014 to try to aprehend Edward Snowden - Austria grounded the plane from its airspace).

    The use of longlasting or permanent sanctions, especially when the sanctioned country has little ability to make concessions, it just leads to the sanctioned country learning to live without the countries that imposes the sanctions, according to Diesen.

    Anti-Russian sanctions following Crimea and Ukraine in 2014 didn't lead to Russia capitulating to the West or destroying the Russian economy. Russia rewired its economy to the East, forming a strategic partnership with China, reducing its vulnerability by cutting exposure to Western industries, tech, transportation corridors, banks, payment systems. Same with Iran. And now Belarus.

    #Belarus #Russia #Sanctions 
  • Jun, 2021
  • Jun 12, 2021
  • There's talk about making Puerto Rico the 51st US state
     
  • May, 2021
  • May 26, 2021
  • Belarus president causes Ryanair flight to land to arrest opposition activist

    Considered the most brazen act from an Eastern European regime in a long time, President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus had a the plane tailed by a fighter jet, and under the pretense of a bomb threat caused the plane to divert from its course (Greece to Lithuania) and land in Minsk.

    No explosives were found but they arrested
    Roman Protasevich, who is seen as taking on the role of a sort of hero in recent anti-government protests through a Telegram channel.

    The country has him on charges of terrorism for his blogging on what the State calls extremist organization, and protest organizing, which the state refers to as organizing mass riots and enticing social hatred, it seems. Western powers are now calling Belarus' act one of 'State terrorism.'

    The EU wants to react strongly, but people wonder how they can do so. Some considerations that might hurt the Belarusian regime include blocking Belarus from the international banking system, in cooperation with the US. They could sanction state companies that support the Belarusian regime. They could stop oil imports and exports--the EU is the second-biggest trade partner of Belarus after Russia.

    Lukashenko said it was his country’s 'sovereign right' to arrest the activist: 'Let his numerous Western patrons answer this question: Which intelligence services did this individual work for? Not only him but his accomplice as well.'

    Belarus later released videos of Protasevich and his girlfriend in custody confessing to crimes against the state. He said the activist had moved on from reporting solely on Belarus to 'working full out against Russia, thus showing the true goal of western strategists. ... Their goal is to dissolve the Belarusian people and move on to smothering their arch-enemy: the Russian.'

    Lukashenko commented on the bomb threat: 'Was Chernobyl not enough?, If there was a bomb on board the plane and terrorists wanted to blow it up, we couldn’t really have helped. But I couldn’t let the plane fall on our people’s heads.'

    Belarusian authorities also arrested 14 staff from the organization Protasevich worked for in a tax evasion case. There were reports of numerous incidents of violence against journalists in the country.

    According to Reuters, 'a day after Protasevich's arrest, the government introduced new measures to regulate media activities, including a blanket ban on covering protests or publishing opinion polls without prior authorization from the government.'

    Many people, not least of all Russian journalists, have pointed out that in 2013 the USA and EU countries forced a Bolivian plane--carrying that country's president Evo Morales--to land in Austria (it was en route from Moscow to Bolivia after a summit) for 13 hours because they thought fugitive US spy agency contractor Edward Snowden might be on board, who was charged with conveying classified information to an unauthorized party, disclosing communications intelligence information, and theft of government property.

    The weekend following the incident, Lukashenko visited Putin and video footage was published of the two enjoying conversation and some laughs and dining together with Lukashenko's son on a yacht in the Black Sea in Sochi. During a televised conference between the two, Putin also brought up the 2013 incident of Morales' plane, laughing.

    #Terrorism #Lithuania #FreeSpeech #press #EdwardSnowden

     
  • May, 2021
  • May 01, 2021
  • 400 people moving to Dallas every day

    Other hot real estate markets right now include Phoenix, Austin, and Atlanta.

    Line up to buy and buy as soon you can, with prices for new homes less than for old homes for the first time in 15 years due to inflated building costs (lumber notably up 400% this year), although different from 15 years ago buyers are actually qualified to buy.

     
  • EU Parliament threatens Russian oil sector

    The EP, responding to Russian military buildups on the Ukraine border, passed a resolution that "demands that Russia immediately end the practice of unjustified military build-ups targeted at threatening its neighbors."

    The EU stated that other countries should supply more arms to Ukraine, and threatened that if Russia invaded Ukraine the EU "imports of oil and gas from Russia to the EU be immediately stopped, while Russia should be excluded from the SWIFT payment system, and all assets in the EU of oligarchs close to the Russian authorities and their families in the EU need to be frozen and their visas cancelled."

    Russia responded by saying it was ready to be shut off from Swift.

    SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) is a transaction network that connect thousands of banks in over 200 countries. Russia's central bank has its own transaction network, SPFS (System for Transfer of Financial Messages) but outside of Russia only 8 banks use it.
    "demands that Russia immediately end the practice of unjustified military build-ups targeted at threatening its neighbours."

    Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/world/russian-aggression-ep-resolution-proposes-switching-off-swift-for-russia-if-kremling-invades-ukraine-11406190.html
    It also "demands that Russia immediately end the practice of unjustified military build-ups targeted at threatening its neighbours."

    Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/world/russian-aggression-ep-resolution-proposes-switching-off-swift-for-russia-if-kremling-invades-ukraine-11406190.html
    It also "demands that Russia immediately end the practice of unjustified military build-ups targeted at threatening its neighbours."

    Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/world/russian-aggression-ep-resolution-proposes-switching-off-swift-for-russia-if-kremling-invades-ukraine-11406190.html

     
  • Apr, 2021
  • Apr 30, 2021
  • Burkina Faso's electric power grid

    Citizens there increasingly have access to electricity, up from 18% to 45% in the past 5 years, and power outages have been reduced from regular multi-hour outages to ones lasting about an hour.

    The country gets 65% of it's power from Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana, but it is moving towards energy independence with large fields of solar panels in the desert. It expects the investments it is making now in solar will cause it to become 'completely powered' by solar in the coming years.

    #BurkinaFaso #Energy
  • China's population to decline, introduces 3-child policy

    For the first time since Mao's Cultural Revolution 50 years ago, China's 1.4b people may decline, according to some calculations. China denies that it has reached its peak but says it might come in the coming few years. [FT]

    The 'One Child Policy' was in effect for 35 years until it was ended in 2015. After lifting the limit to two, China saw a small baby boom in the same year but then it started to decline again. Commentators noted that China is finding it is easier to cause citizens to have less babies than more, particularly since in the competitive labor market families often prefer to put all their resources behind making one child succeed rather than splitting resources up.

    China has now lifted the limit to three, but since lifting it to two didn't do much, people don't expect the 3-child policy will cause a dramatic boom. Some think the government will now incentivize or pressure citizens to have more children.

    The issue China faces is that they are now going to be facing an aging population, but without having reached their desired development level so that wages will be as high as Western countries and better able to support that type of population.

    There is also talk of a shortage of child-bearing age women there.

    But what might be most important is that Chinese men can't afford houses, and it's been reported no one will marry them without one.

    Chinese women currently have 1.3 children each. You need 2.1 to sustain population levels.

    India is a close second for the largest population, with 1.38b, but their population is expected to continue increasing.
     

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