World

January 2022
Myanmar coup fighting continues

Reports have it that the military who took power by force are not doing so well to consolidate power. Fighting continues. Defections continue into the People's Defense Forces. Becoming something of a civil war.

Possible US tactics, they're currently coming up with a plan at Congress: Squeeze oil and gas revenues (which go to military). Possibly, US could accuse them of genocide (Ryohinga also a possibility), although the military is killing all groups including their own.

People already people suffering from lack of food, etc., but the strategy of resistance is to sort of destroy the economy and accept what comes along with it, to squeeze the military government in power.
'When a member of [US] Congress goes to Taiwan and declares that she is now in the Republic of Taiwan, that's terribly provocative"

... and who ends up getting hurt in that situation? It's the people of Taiwan. If there is ever a military conflict there, even if it's turned back, thousands of people in Taiwan will die. And members of Congress ought to be aware of that simple truth. - Joseph Fewsmith

February 2022
World population might peak by mid-century and return to around current size by 2100 - Dr Darrell Bricker

He guesses 2040's will be the beginning of population decline, with the last of the boomers. 2030's will be a largescale retirement.

We thought the pandemic would lead to a baby boom. Instead, fertility rates depressed. Counties that depend on migration for population also have growth disrupted as travel was more difficult.

China, the world's largest country with 1.4b people, is projected to lose almost half its population size this century. India, which has 1.4 also, will lose 290m in the century. USA with 330m will rise about 11m.

Urbanization has a major affect on fertility, and therefore on population. On the farm children are extra hands; in the city they're more expense. We'll have an older, less fertile population.

Almost 60% of people live in cities, and that will be around 70% by 2050. This will be moreso in Asia and Africa (China will be 80% urban, it's presumed; Japan is currently 92% urban and might go to 95%). Less in North America and Europe (already quite urbanized).

The changing role of women is a major factor. Women are the majority of university students in the first world (most countries), and so delay marriage or children till their late 20s or early 30s. It's said that the best thing to look at to guess a country's fertility rate, it's the education rate of women.

Societies don't value large families nowadays either.

The fertility rate in 1960 was 5.2, and it's 2.3 or 2.4 now. Expected to be 2.2 in 2050. Japan is 1.4 right now. Russia about the same. Deaths per year in Russia outnumber births by about 1m. Russia has a median age of 40 currently, and Japan 48. USA is 38, a year less than China's 39. African countries are younger, although their growth is also slowing (but much less than elsewhere).

In the modern era, no country that has fallen below population replacement fertility of 2.1 has been able to get back above it.

To put the US in context, though, compared with Russia and Japan, you have to consider that if the US didn't have largescale immigration, it would not be growing either. Note that US is still by far considered the most desirable country to relocate to, and is the population with the most immigrants.

An older population is also more female (since males are more likely to die of just about every cause of death except for things men can't die from because they don't have the body parts). Over the age of 40, there are less men and more women. At age 100 it's 5 to 1.

There might be a population bust by 2050. Less consumption (neither older people nor robots buy as much as younger). Less innovation (it is guessed).

In the US and Canada, the most common household is a person living by themself. At the start and at the end of their adult life.

Female cosmetic surgery, supporting money, transportation from countryside. Reduced pressures. More things for families. Robots as consumers.

Lots of US headlines about Russia's possible invasion of Ukraine

Putin invaded Ukraine Feb 22, 2022

The first time there's been war in Europe for a while. It's a controlled, limited invasion so far. Deaths are being counted in small numbers.

Before invading, Putin placed 150k soldiers all around Ukraine and put his ships in the sea southeast of Ukraine.

Ukrainians started fleeing to Poland and other neighboring countries. Ukraine passed a law forbidding men from leaving the country. News images of crying families.

Russian tanks and weapons surrounded Kiev.

Feb 27, Germany passes legislation which it would have been unthinkable it could/would pass before. It will build up its military and take moves to reduce its reliance on Russian gas.

The German chancellor in a speech said that 'permanent security in Europe is not possible with Russia there,' and ' we find our self in a new age' and that people in Ukraine are fighting 'not just for their homeland but for liberty and democracy, for values that we share with them.'

The German government will now commit $100b Euros more to buy military stuff. US and some other allies have for years been pushing Germany to spend more than 2% on defense, and this it the first time Germany is going to do that. The idea up until now was that Germany, after WWII, should never again wield military might because of the terrible suffering caused during that war.

Some commenters say that the resistance Russia faced in trying to take Kharkhiv may have been a surprise for Russia, since there are strong Russian ties there (and one might assume it would be easier to take than other parts of Ukraine).

Zelenskyy said "That night was hard. What did they do? This is revenge. The people rose to defend their State. They, the Russian army, showed their real face. This is terror. They are going to bomb our Ukrainian cities even more. They are going to kill our children even more in cities."

Russia is basically just attacking military targets (it said it's hit almost 600 of its targets), such as energy sources, but some have landed in ways that have killed and maimed bystanders.

Zelenskyy basically accused Belarus of being complicit, helping Russian forces enter from the northern border.

There's a question about where the two leaders could meet to discuss end to the war. Ukraine rejected Belarus, but suggested Poland. Russia hasn't commented on that yet.

There's a question about whether Putin calculated well. The clear weapon and military superiority it has over Ukraine allowed it to invade, and use air and ballistic power with effect, but troops walking across Ukraine, actual actions / occupation, it isn't clear Russia will be able to. Also there's a question about how popular this action really is even in Russia. How many fallen Russian soldiers will the country take?

Klaus Wittmann said he expected a prolonged, underground war, house to house, street to street, where you don't know where snipers or anti-tank attacks might come from. Probably much higher motivation on the side of the defenders. He referred to the Chechen War.

Russian oligarchs lost around $126b in their value ($40b was the day of the invasion), it was reported.

Protests have taken place in various places around the world in support of Ukraine. 20-30k estimated participation (but they way the reported said that might make you doubt there was that many really) of one in Berlin, bigger than ones the previous days. It is considered not just a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but an international conflict. Reportedly, they support supplying Ukraine with weapons.

Feb 22, 2014 was the day Yanukovich fled Ukraine for Eastern Ukraine (and after that to Russia), and the protesters were said to be in control of Kiev. The Ukrainian parliament voted to impeach Yanukovich and scheduled new presidential elections.




 
Economic consequences of Russian invasion of Ukraine, by Patrick Boyle

US and allies are removing some Russian financial institutions from Swift, and imposing major restrictions on Russia's central bank.

The R central bank has $640b in foreign exchange reserves, much held at various western central banks. But some is in Russia and in China (also not expected to be frozen). So they have about $240b in available reserves. The war costs an estimated $20b per day. This could cause bank runs, tank the Ruble, and cause panic among Russian businesses. 

The US has previously imposed sanctions on the central banks of Iran, N Korea, and Venezuela.

S&P lowered Russia's rating to junk (high borrowing rate), and Fitch lowered Ukraine's, and Moody's might do both.

Russia produces 10m barrels per day of oil. Because Europe and other countries are dependent so heavily on Russian oil and gas, the reaction was slower to their invasion than might otherwise have been the case.

Germany specifically. While 2022 was set to be the date for the shutting down of all nuclear power in Germany (it's down to 3 plants now and they're planned to shut this year), a plan started 20 years ago and fortified by sentiment after Fukushima in 2011. Also all of Europe has been reducing coal energy and other types like that, focusing on clean energy, but it hasn't happened very fast so they still depend heavily on Russian gas. That effects BP and Total Energy are exposed to Russian energy. BP owns almost 20% of Rosneft, an investment that sent $2.4b profits last year for BP.

Increases in fertilizer prices, a secondary effect of sanctions of Russian gas exports, will push food prices up everywhere.

Russia and Ukraine together make up about 1/3 of grain production in the world. Potatoes, sugar beets, sunflower oil also. Food factories are shutting down plants in Ukraine temporarily. There could be food shortages, potentially. Food shortages, which could affect Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Pakistan and Indonesia, could lead to political consequences like uprisings.

Aluminum, dependent on electricity, 14% of world production in Russia (excluding China).

Metal producers are cutting their output after natural gas prices shot up like 30%.

Nickel (batteries), lots is produced in Russia. Palladium (catalytic converters, electrodes and electronics ie auto manufacturing countries like China and North America) too. Platinum (catalytic converters, lab equipment, electrical contacts and jewelry). C4F6 and Neon (semiconductors) are produced by both countries.

Ukraine is a big producer of titanium (aircraft manufacturing, jewelry, phones, surgical tools).

US started cutting banking exposure to Russia in 2014 (Crimean conflict), but Austria's Faiffeisen makes 1/3 of their profits in Russia, and some other European banks are also highly involved in Russia.

UK airlines can't use Russian airspace right now to fly to China. Expected to be all of Europe soon.

 
US was trying to make Ukraine into "a de facto member of NATO,"according to John Mearsheimer

"They [the Russians] aren't interested in negotiating anymore. They're interested in altering the status quo."

He said the genesis of this conflict was 2008, the decision to try to make Ukraine part of NATO. The crisis breakout was Feb 22, 2014 end of what he calls the 'unipolar moment'). It was then put on the backburner, and then all of a sudden it broke out again.

The obvious solution is perhaps politically impossible, M said. Because America unwilling to make any concessions on NATO. ... Turning Ukraine into an effective buffer, a neutral state, between Russia and NATO, which is what Ukraine was since independence in 1991 until 2014.

Before the problem, the problem has to be solved of the lack of agreement between the pro-Russian Donbas and the Ukrainian government in Kiev.

He said the Russians don't want to negotiate with the UK or Germany or NATO, because they all just do what the Americans ask them to do. So Russia only wants to talk to the US president.

He (speaking a few days before the actual invasion) said Putin probably had no intention of invading, because that would mean 'owning' Ukraine, being an unwanted occupying force, which in the modern world just comes with so much trouble of all sorts. He said Putin must surely understand that. Also that the West would go to great lengths to cripple the Russian economy. Also, without invading, Putin was 'winning.' He had everyone's attention and everyone was trying to talk to him, and that it was now understood in the West that Ukraine was not going to be possible to bring into NATO.

He thinks eventually US and Russia become allies against China, and that China is a bigger threat to Russia than the US is. He didn't, however, see an offramp for the Ukraine crisis (speaking before the invasion).

He said Trump, who wanted to be closer with Putin and pivot to Asia, didn't get his way, but then started to arm Ukraine, 'much tot he chagrin of Russia.'

He noted the contemporary superhigh anti-Putin, anti-Russian sentiment in the US (both parties, and popularly). He didn't know why, except some guesses like remnant associations to do with the Cold War, Putin's always standing up to the US, that Putin heads an authoritarian state and his stance on homosexuality and other social issues. The invention of the Democrat's story that Hillary lost the election because the Russians manipulated the system and caused Trump to win the vote.

He said NATO needs the Russian threat to exist. He said that as to the question of getting European nations to spend 2% on military, "Don't hold your breath." They're basically free-riders. Why spend that if the US is going to take care of you anyway? However, if the US pivots to Asia and 'leaves' Europe, and if Europe perceives Russia as a threat, then EU States would spend more on military. If they have to provide for their own defense. He drew a parallel to Japan, which free rode off the US until China grew to a size where it became a real threat. Japan now faces what they perceive to be an existential threat, and has started to talk more like a 'realist.'

Talking about nuclear weapons, he said that although they have been a force for peace, a deterrent, they weren't much of a factor in Putin's then-possible invasion of Ukraine because the US (Biden) already said if Russia invaded US wouldn't do anything, and even if Americans IN Ukraine were threatened he wouldn't, so they're not really a deterrent in that case. He said what would keep Putin from invading was the costs (invasion, occupation) and the benefits of keeping on without invading (Russia doing well).

"Russia has taken the position that grievance and victimization is what powers their domestic and foreign policy" - Rory Finnin

Reportedly, 6000 of people who were nonviolently protesting the Ukraine invasion were detained in Russia

2008 Russia takes a piece of Georgia, sanctions were pretty limited

2014 takes two pieces of Ukraine, a few years later he's hosting the World Cup and European leaders are coming to visit him there

2016 elections, Obama's like I don't want to deal with that right now

So the economic sanctions now are maybe more than Russia expected

- View by Ian Bremmer

If Putin kills lots of Ukrainians (which it's expected he would have to do to take Kiev) this will increase opposition within Russia, since they two countries have such strong ties, lots of relations - Ian Bremmer's thought

Questions about possible future Russian demotivation

Ian Bremmer is from Eurasia Group

Nightmare scenario is that the conflict expands to other parts of Ukraine, or there's an air or sea accident, and Russia is then fighting an EU country - Ian Bremmer

Some in US gov saying we're past the point of no return for the prospect of rebuilding relations with Russia under Putin

It's been said that Germans will never again make themselves dependent on R energy, and that they now see it as a mistake. And that the Brits will never be the conduit for Oligarch wealth they have been for the past 20 years.

Estimated that maybe 5m Ukrainians will become refugees in Europe (mostly in Poland)

They're talking about allowing such refugees to live in EU countries for three years.

Reportedly, Russian side of war not going very well

Whether this is true or not, there's no way to tell.

Some have mentioned less than stellar military training of troops, and perhaps most of all that Russians don't want to shoot Ukrainians.

March 2022
60km long convoy of Russian military vehicles making its way to Kiev

Foreign legion to fight in Ukraine

Ukraine has published some videos for people from other countries, that people can come to Ukraine and fight with them.

It was pointed out that the people this might attract might be in significant part far-right extremists or 'nazis' (whatever that word means right now), and that they would afterwards return to their nations hardened, proud and accomplished in what they'd been doing and the company they'd been keeping.

Ukraine expects up to 70 fighter jets from Bulgaria, Poland, and Slovakia

According to RT. Bulgaria denied this, but RT said Poland seems to be on board.

Thousands of anti-tank and anti-air have been sent in from EU and NATO countries.
Ukraine saying Russia is bombing civilian targets, Russia saying Ukraine is placing military equipment near residential buildings which is why it's targeting there

US has a freedom convoy moving

Restaurants, fuel companies, etc. have been donating.

Expected to reach near DC in early March. But said they won't be entering DC proper.
 
You might note here that while many disruptor businesses and tech are trying to replace drivers (lowering costs), the dependence on actual people preserves the popular ability to combat government oppression.
So looking back a bit, focus on air in Russia Ukraine

First move by Russians was knock out Ukraine's static radar positions to decrease Ukraine's early warning system. Cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. (24th)

And also air defense systems like the S300 surface to air missiles.

Also runways and airports to create runways for themselves and destroy some planes that were parked there (some say they weren't as successful in this part).

Second, focus on air assets of Ukraine (bases and air crafts, and remaining air defenses). This hasn't happened.

Russia is mostly using helicopters and gunships. Unguided weapons. They've left space and Ukraine has launched offensives there. R hasn't kept U's planes on the ground.

"We're in total economic war" - Steve Weiss
Putin's conditions for ending the war:

- Ukraine must recognize Crimea as Russian

- Ukraine must recognize Russian-controlled separatist regions as independent

- Ukraine must change its constitution to formally renounce its ambitions to join political blocs like NATO and the EU

No one can talk or think about anything except Ukraine these days

... not much of value is being said. Mostly they're not historians or journalists with some time in.

... Other stories that might be critical of the government, that they've been doing and now data is coming out? Crickets.

Reportedly, UAE and SA have declined to answer phonecalls from Biden

... although they have both spoken to Putin, reportedly.

Wion said the reason was a 'trust deficit.' And noted the affair with the killing of the journalist Kashogi.
 
US has been involved in fighting in 84 of the 194 countries recognized by the UN

... according to Wion

Map with the countries it's invaded or been military involved in:


SA executes 81 men

The largest mass execution recently. Some were murderers, and others were found to have 'pledged allegiance to foreign terrorist organizations.'

This was reported by Wion.

73 of the 81 were Saudi nationals who had been found guilty in a single case of attempting to assassinate security officials, targeting police stations and convoys.

SA officials said it was 'only protecting its national security interest through its laws.'

The countries that execute the most people are China, Iran, Egypt, Iraq, and fifth SA.

"Because Russia controls the air, the game is ultimately fixed against the Ukrainians" - Chris Hedges

Because the West won't call a 'no fly zone' (which would be interpreted by Russia as an act of war, it's been said), Russia will control the air and therefore the war.

Hedges hearkened back to Iraq where Apache helicopters basically acted as mobile tank-destroying machines, picking one off after another.

Ukraine seems to for many people be highlighting the negatives of 'nationalism'

Which unites the right and left, often contains or mixes with racism, one group over another or excluding another.
 
Putin starts destroying cities, or a prolonged war of attrition, are the two prospects Chris Hedges presumes for Ukraine

Putin has been restrained in the damage he's done in Ukraine, Hedges said, but he may become frustrated and lift restraints, resulting in largescale deaths. Or, if there is a steady stream of arms shipments into Ukraine, it may be a long war of attrition.

Which would be more profitable for the permanent military industrial complex?

#Ukraine #Russia #MIC
Many commentators and experts when talking about Ukraine are saying it's a war crime or it's an unjust war, but leaving it at that.

They're not saying anymore against Russia's actions. They are all putting it in context of the situation the West has created. Then they add again their line about it not being a just war, or about it being a war crime.

They liken the war, being a pre-emptive war, to the US invasion of Iraq, which they also say is a war crime.
Results of Ukraine war, according to Samo Burja

1. China develops more alternatives to the Western financial and economic system (West is "fighting tanks with sanctions," so Russia will seek alternatives), and starts offering them to rogue states around the world. Even if China doesn't offer a base of support to Russia, countries around the world will more and more want to turn to China for their economic integration. (Will China also 'buy terrorist states' as Chomsky puts it?)

2. Russia successfully occupies large chunks of Ukraine that it did not occupy before.

3. Putin remains in power for the next year.

So far, violence not super high in Ukraine

MSM is constantly reporting on the destruction, but it's very limited. Talking about 'a building' or 'an attack.'

"NATO is not benevolent. Both NATO and Russia are engaged in imperialistic expansion, driven of course by mutually irresolvable legitimate security concerns." - Samo Burja

"Some sort of clarification of the situation of Ukraine was inevitable." - Samo Burja

"Either there would be another coup like the one in 2014, and the government would once more flip towards Russia. Or NATO would move very quickly, and put NATO troops in Ukraine and make Ukraine a NATO member and Russia probably wouldn't dare to overturn that outcome with military force."

"Part of the game is inflicting unacceptable political and economic situations on your enemy, forcing your enemy to act first militarily, thereby having the moral justification to retaliate much more strongly."

"Powers do try to entrap each other into military action. If I believed more in the competence of the Pentagon, I would believe that they had goaded Russia into an invasion that they knew Russia would fumble."
18m excess deaths attributed to pandemic (not counting 2022 it seems)

The paper doesn't say (because we don't yet have research with any conclusions it seems) what happened. Was it that the virus in its various strains was stronger than thought, or was it people not able to access health care, or was it due to preventative measures, or what?

It's expected there will be repercussions going forward as well, as people who avoided or weren't able to get diagnoses for things didn't know or weren't able to be treated in a timely manner.

Paper in the Lancet
Poll about if America were invaded like Ukraine


"The entire German strategy for the last 40 years has been 'Use our economic weight to effect a favorable security and trade and regulatory environment worldwide. That strategy has failed profoundly." - Samo Burja

... talking about Ukraine.
"It's not in China's interest to have Russia collapse. So I think a coupling of Russia to the Chinese system feels like the default outcome right now." - Samo Burja

Resulting in high energy prices in Europe, slow de-industrialization and impoverishment of Europe.

China is the only winner of a conflict between Europe and Russia, Burja said, although he said the US could benefit long term from the goings on (because the US can be energy independent and produce oil, in addition to other reasons).

"Note that [the US] cannot simultaneously embargo these three places," Samo Burja said about the US going to try to get Venezuela to produce some oil. The US can't embargo Venezuela, China, and Russia all at the same time.

SA holding the cards

XI is reportedly going to make his first overseas visit in 2 years to SA. Recently Biden asked SA to increase oil production and they said no.

US is energy independent (biggest oil producer) and China is the biggest energy consumer (currently buys 1/4 of SA's oil exports). SA is the biggest crude oil exporter.

US published documents on Yemen or something and linked SA royal house to Kashogi killing. China has it's think in Xinjiang.

SA and US have an old relationship. China has leverage over Iran, something US may never have.

How much weapons will China provide for SA?

Reportedly China is talking about using Yuan instead of USD to buy oil. SA made a deal with Nixon to trade oil only for USD in return for security guarantees.

The Germans have been slashing [defense] budgets basically every year for the last 20 years. The capabilities of the once-fearsome West German military that became the German military, those are long gone. There's really nothing Germany can do except economically. - Samo Burja

Britain, France. These are shadows of what they were even in the 90s.


April 2022
People seem to be starting to talk about 'fear'

I mean vloggers, writers, commenters. This seems to be just starting in at least some sense. The fear of people faced with anxiety and threat (from, I guess, governments more than anything).
 
I've seen this topic taken up by several vloggers lately.

Note that RT is banned on YouTube. This news comes from a blogger who used RT.

Parents and children had been separated by force (no choice), if one was found to have Covid. They are now allowed to be together again.

Only supermarkets and pharmacies are open. Images of China's biggest city look the same as the 2020 beginning of the pandemic.

State-owened banks are loaning businesses, which have no revenue now, money, in some cases.

In other cases, people are working, traveling in a closed loop between home and their factory. Factories set up tents during the pandemic, which allows them to do this now.

China uses drones to go around telling people not to go out or doors.

The hope is to reduce new infections to 0 in two weeks.

This lockdown is expected to cost Shanghai 3.5% in economic growth.

"Globalization, which historically was viewed as a barrier to conflict due to the interdependent nature of global trade, has now become a new battleground." - Patrick Boyle

China recently stated that the US's use of weaponization of global finance (sanctions on Russia [after doing it to Iran's central bank a few years ago]) would be the downfall of it's status as world reserve currency. Ie integrity.

China has a version of Swift, and India is considering (so far just considering) doing a Ruble-Rupee exchange or working in barter.

Most of the West is on side, sanctioning Russia, and that makes up the bulk of currency action, but there are still 100 countries or something that are not sanctioning Russia. Brazil is another country that might help Russia work around the sanctions. Boyle said the use of sanctions in the way the US is doing will have many countries wondering if they can still trust the US.



 

Four deadly attacks in Israel in past weeks

Shanghai has been under (strict) lockdown for a couple weeks now, as part of a zero Covid plan

There's no food on the grocery store shelves now, reportedly. The government is deploying food packets. Reports that wealthy people had hoarded the food from stores.

Truck driver restrictions/refusals to enter Shanghai disrupting supply chain.

Chinese government facing criticism inside country for:

- efficacy of Chinese-made vaccines
- refusal to use mRNA vaccines provided to them by US

200m people (20% of population) are locked down in China right now. 13 of their largest cities and some other cities.

Chinese city residents are organizing in group chats (on their phones) to negotiate and buy food bulk from vendors they know


China makes security pact with Solomon Islands

Reportedly just before a US diplomat was supposed to go to keep this very thing from happening.

Macron won a second term

Members of the Saudi royal family have been selling yachts, homes etc for a few years

Apparently, MBS has cut money usually given to royals. He wants the money to fund ambitious projects. Some say that if the royals have lavish lifestyles, MBS will view them as rivals, and so are opting to hold cash.

Cameroon signed a new agreement with Russia for Military cooperation

They have ongoing military agreements.

This video gives an idea of how China is managing its cities during the pandemic April 2022 (2 years after the start, but after the latest Omicron strain, when China locked down Shanghai again). Lots of images.

Lower immunity from natural infection - uniquely vulnerable. It was a source of national pride for Chinese that their case numbers had been so low, and they had so 'successfully' weathered the pandemic relative to other countries, although their strict lockdowns of cities caused economic and other problems (such as other health problems due to lack of diagnosis and treatment, access to medicine, etc, psychological problems from isolation, social issues from lack of socialization - it has been said (by Mill in the following terms) that the necessity of the mental wellbeing of people (on which all their other wellbeings depend) lies in freedoms) as well as extreme tracking and monitoring through electronic devices and registration. Some say the Chinese see the issue politically, as the Chinese system versus the West, so it may be less likely China would now permit opening the cities and having more infections, because of the images that would be shown to the world.
May 2022

Recently the US, which has never recognized Taiwan's independence (for the sake of its relationship with the CCP) deleted a sentence on the State Dept website that said the US "does not support Taiwan independence." It changed wording that had referenced Taiwan as being part of China.

Is the US going to spend some more money on arms for Taiwan?

Random economic notes from experts

US stock market has lost $7t in 2022.

Generational buying opportunity.

But some of these stocks have almost doubled in PE since pandemic lows.

Some were used as bond proxies, defensive plays in an uncertain world.

The 3 major areas of the world are all slowing economically. China lockdowns for Covid. Europe's looking at a recession this year. US is slowing. Growth scare is yet to be priced into markets.

Keep an eye on investment grade, because if there's been excessive leverage taken there, that's when finance contaminates the economy (instead of the other way around).

Stagflation as the baseline (El-Erian). Something worse depends on soft or hard landing. Inflation stuck at 5 to 6%. Complacency about CPI numbers.

UK leader to cut 90k civil servant jobs.

Some ask if Apple stock bounce (May 12) was a signal for a market bottom.

We've priced in probably a hard landing. (Brian Kelly).

We don't know if the type of stock trader who is interested in ARK-types are buying in. The prime brokers and the market makers know; they know if they're creating to lend but they won't tell us. (Jan van Eck) Vandatrack tracks retail flow and I think they're showing buyers. (Batnick)

Investors are waiting for a higher low, watching constantly wanting to buy.

There were a lot of narratives about why the bond market was the way it was over the past 10 years. The Central Bank. There's just one reason.

IPOs (Rivian) and growth stocks (Zoom) were huge but now are small relative to established companies. "It was a relative game." "Did you see what they're paying for Tesla?"

"Everything trades off of Apple, I think."

The labor market is SO tight.

"The Fed is happy. The market decline is orderly (haven't had to pause the market) They're being very transparent about what they're doing. And people still have jobs."

The only problem is that our cost of living is going up. Wages are going up, but how is your quality of living?

There's 1.9 (reported) jobs right now for every 1 person seeking a job. You can quit your job and get another one in a snap. How powerful do you feel? Stocks in your portfolio are 30% lower than they were a year ago.

If there's a recession, we're not low enough (stock market). Because multiples will have to come down and earnings will come down with them.

The elephant. The Fed is going to get out of fixed income market. And we have commercial banks that provide no liquidity to the fixed income market. So that is where the breakage can happen. Because everyone has to borrow money if they want to buy a house or anything else?

Does that Fed tighten too much? I don't think they care about asset prices, because they need to kill inflation. They made a boo-boo and they really want to fix it. "Causing inflation." ("Transitory.") That is their job: price stability.

The pain that's going to come from borrowers having to pay a lot more debt.

Corporations are OK (balance sheets). It's governments that have borrowed too much money.

The biggest global risk is a China recession. And that's priced in because China's in a recession.

Everything prices off of treasuries.

Circled on the calendar. In June the Fed leaves the fixed income market. (Back in July?)

The Fed wants to reload their ammo, so they can come back into the market if they want to. Then they can do bond market intervention if they want. As the liquidity comes out of the system and the labor market is still OK. It could be really tough for investors but that's not important to them.

I think they're more mad at having to pay $200 to fill up their gas tank than anything else right now. The pocketbook of the household is going up. Everything.

Wages are sticky inflation. Everything else is fixable. You can have more wheat next year. We're getting close to the wage price spiral but we're not there yet.

The stock market is not the economy, but it is the economy to private companies.

There's a lot of ebbs and flows to valuations.

One of the price-setters for venture capital and growth tech is Masayoshi Son, lost $24b in Q1. (He made a lot in Alibaba. He doesn't currently have a lot of money to spend, so.) He still put $2.5b out on the street in Q1. SOFTBANK.

Some people focus on 0 to 1. I want to focus on 1 to 2. You wanna have more than 1 product. So, Robinhood had low-cost trading. Then what? That's not the company, that's just the 0 to 1. How do you get your competitive pricing moat? You almost know Coinbase is gonna get decreasing revenue from their customers, just because there's going to be more competition. ROBINHOOD. COINBASE.

There's a lot of fintech companies, all spending money on trying to win customers. The race to zero.

What are you betting on in the crypto space (for private investing)? Software development teams, that can solve a problem that needs to be solved for a long period of time.

I can't hire enough people, and you have to pay them too much. My brokerage account shrunk. My cost of everything is up. Everyone quit on me.

Consumer credit boomed in March (2022). Sign of gas prices are too high, and I need to leave a higher balance on my credit cards. I was not squeezed for the last 2 years (stimi checks). I'm not paying with cash anymore; I'm putting half on my credit card. (credit was way down during stimulus check-era.)

People say consumer spending is doing good because it's still high. But that's not the right reading. They don't want to be spending that. That's just what it costs now.

If you greenlight (and regulate well) onshore crypto, people don't need to go to offshore). But the problem is the FCC needs to fight against the banking regulators.

Bitcoin is maturing as an asset. The biggest country stopped mining and it survived. The mining difficulty rate adjusted. ... But it is not hedging against inflation. Gold didn't hedge inflation in the current environment really well either (it did hit a high last year).

The dollar is weakening and strengthening. It's at a 20-year high.

MARKET HISTORY when thinking about Bitcoin. FDR made it illegal for individuals to buy gold. But they could buy gold coins. Coograms and Maple Leafs. Everyone bought gold through futures contracts instead. And then we had gold bullion ETFs.

I think gold has underperformed the last 5 years because of Bitcoin. People born with a cellphone in their hand. People in Ukraine.

Smart Contracts have outperformed over the last 12 months. One of them has to be a winner. And you should also buy a basket.

GDX is more liquid than gold. In a bear market it's hard to trade a gold company.

 
Random notes

We're in a transition environment, and that means volatility (transition to higher rates, inflation, food prices).

People last year, some people called it a potential hedge. Crypto is showing its true colors in this environment. But are they anything more than a small diversionary thing (Ukraine war they showed a use)?

According to Redacted, US proposed change so that authority would shift to WHO and not citizens' elected reps. Voted down only because of African countries (Western ones went along with it). This treaty, which rushes vaccines to people (without their consent), is called the "Right to Health" treaty.

WHO a couple years ago (after Swine Flu) changed their definition of 'pandemic' away from the severity of the disease to just case numbers. So they could impose whatever measures as long as a certain number of people had a disease, regardless of what it was, it seems.

#1 donor to WHO is Gates Foundation. Next Germany, then the US.

A commenter on the video: The Nuremberg code consists of 10 principles, the first of which being that the voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential in any experiment on humans.

How would this treaty relate with human and civil rights? Would it just override all of them?

June 2022
Taiwan 2022 Q2

US and Chinese defense ministers have held their first face to face talks in Singapore.

China's MoD spokesperson was quoted 'If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China [ie independence?], the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war. No matter the cost.'

India recently entered the South China Sea theater by supplying the non-China side with weapons. France recently sent a diplomatic mission to Taiwan. Taiwan is one of the main issues between the US and China. Recently Biden stated he would defend Taiwan militarily if it was attacked by China.

On the street and among commenters, people speculate China may invade during the current Ukraine invasion or perhaps after it concludes.

Will Russia continue to be a reliable supplier of arms to India, as Russia becomes involved with China?

"A weakened Russia, with a degraded military industrial structure, is not going to be the major reliable, efficient partner we were counting on before the war." Indian congressman

India is considering closer alliance with the US but is not impressed with the US's history of alliances (it hasn't always fared very well for the US's alliance partners, some say).

Some say India is coming to resemble China and Russia more than it resembles Western democracies.

2 months before the Ukraine invasion Putin visited India on a rare trip abroad.

In 1971 both India and the Soviets were concerned about China and made a strong pact. Russia became India's #1 arms supplier (against China, India's longstanding adversary).

Recently, the US threatened to sanction India for an arms purchase of high-tech Russia weapons.

However, India buying arms from Russia seems to have been declining anyway over the past 10 years. India buys more now from US, Israel, France and other countries.

Russia has historically voted against and even vetoed UN movements in support of India, particularly in India's sensitive issues like Kashmir.

Shanghai lockdown back on
Russian cars, newly produced, without airbags or anti-lock brakes

... because they can't import those right now because of their war.
BRICS looking for new members, first time they've done so since adding South Africa 12 years ago

G8 became G7 when they kicked Russia out.

India has wanted to join UN Security Council for a long time, as have other countries, but none have been accepted.

New institutions. They are saying this is a new world, some think.
Petro, first non-conservative president of Colombia in decades, won 50% to 47%

Petro takes office from Duque August 7.

Like 11m votes for him in a Country of 52m. The choice was between (Petro) a leftist who talks a lot about change, which many of the people want (the two main complaints of Colombians seem to be 'inequality' and 'corruption'), although at a risk of making things worse ('like Venezuela' since Petro is considered to be socialist). And on the other hand a right politician, which represented for voters stability and less risk but not the change many want.

Petro has promised several things (which are not largely ideas new to him), but they would require political support beyond his office to pull off. He does not have the majority of Congress.

1. Make more use of land. 1.5% of Colombians own 50% of the land. The idea is to tax land in ways that would encourage using it more, and to redistribute some land.

2.a. More equality in access to health, ie a universal state system which doesn't depend on the ability of patients to pay. Payed for with 'progressive taxes' and a strong hand with corruption.

2.b. Pensions. The offices that currently manage pensions Petro has accused of corruption. Critics say the country traditionally is not efficient as an administrator of money.

3. Environmentalism. Colombia's oil wealth he wants to phase out to become a green economy.

Because it is such a big change, and people weren't sure it would happen, I think it's fair to say people are excited to see what will happen, whether they are hopeful or dreadful.

"Because Afghanistan is different" - Fatima Gailani

"This is not an Afghanistan that came out of a very bitter, ugly civil war of the Mujahedin."

"It's an Afghanistan of educated people. It's an Afghanistan of men and women seen in important positions. This is an Afghanistan where people can go on radio, television and criticize their governments, the leaders."

Are they doing that now? "They are doing that now. How long they will continue ... But no one could shut them up. That one thing I know."

"If anyone is interested in governing Afghanistan, they have to accept the new Afghanistan. Never in the history of Afghanistan was it that way."

Europe taking a lot of flack for recently switching to coal after long criticizing developing nations for using it

Russia has cut gas exports to Europe 50% over the past week, reportedly.

Some say China and India are buying more Russian gas.

Colombia increased exports of coal to Europe 50% (1.3m tonnes) this year. South Africa is now sending coal to Europe.

Europe uses 20% of the world's energy resources, but has 7% of the world's population.

July 2022

Any direct transactions will trigger Western sanctions. This is being called a 'hack' so India's biggest cement maker can buy from Russia. 157k tonnes worth $25m (172m yuan). The sale was arranged from Dubai, reportedly. The mechanism isn't known.

Coal is the main fuel to manufacture cement.

13% of Russian reserves are already in yuan. Indian companies must be trading USD for yuan in a Chinese bank in China or HK. There are no sanctions if you don't use USD.

Yuan to Ruble trade has increased 1000% since the invasion of Ukraine.

China going for global currency status, reaching out to 5 countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, HK, Singapore and Chile

They can build a yuan reserve and a yuan pool (15b yuan each country). A global financial system.


Turkey 'got what it wanted from Finland and Sweden' in talks, its government says

... and it approved the bids by Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Many view this as picking sides against Russia. Erdogan also said yesterday 'We will work with Biden for the purchase of the F-16s.'



This time there was no little vial presented to Congress, so who knows what to make of this claim.

Analysts say this time Iran wants to get an ironclad deal that the US can't back out of, and uranium stockpiles are leverage.

Israel's new PM went to France to try to get Macron's help, but Macron wants dialogue, he stated publicly, and a new deal with Iran.

 

Chinese belt and road region


#China #IR
Sri Lanka protests. Destroyed the leaders house. He resigned. India did not send military aid.
Putin to temporarily shut down Nord Stream, reportedly
1983 - 2015 - Peter Zeihan

35 years with plenty of finance, no security risks, and where anyone who wanted to play a part in the international trading system could (even countries that could have never been successful on their own in a pre-American-led-and-secured globalized system), and it was backed up by massive waves of workers and consumers. Low security costs allowed low-cost production.

China had its best 35 years. Remove American globalism from the equation and it doesn't work. Play China forward and you see they don't have a work force.

Currently, half the world population is dependent directly on food imports. 3/4 on fertilizer imports to grow their own food. Trade links.

Some places weren't able to expand their populations until they could import food (like the Middle East). Some places couldn't get into manufacturing until the security thing happened (like East Asia). Some places used to go to war for energy until recently (like Europe).

Russia might leave the ISS, it's being reported

Zelinsky poses for Vogue


 

August 2022

In Kabul


 

Kissinger, Nixon, anyone?


Another example of how things go along (although philosophically opposed by many) until there's an actual contention, and then true colors are displayed.

China has been carrying out military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan carried some out today.

"Someone who could bring together various factions of the Taliban and make sure they were following the same line."

"The Taliban have been saying that their biggest achievement so far in the country is they've been able to provide security to the people of Afghanistan, and attacks like this ... are meant to taint that."

No one has claimed it. Similar attacks in the past have been claimed by Isil.

Sri Lanka allows Chinese vessel to dock, Washington and Delhi raise a concern | World English News - YouTube

3 choke points: Straight of Hormuz, Straight of Malacca, Singapore Straight.
"Beijing has been quite stunned at the extent of the cooperation between Europe and America on sanctions against America. The calculation ... before the invasion was that Europe and America would be divided, and America would slap a few sanctions on but it wouldn't really be game-changing ..." - John Lee (Hudson Inst)

"The Chinese now realize that if there's any kind of war, for example over Taiwan, the high likelihood is that the Americans would get global cooperation to start imposing extremely harsh particularly financial sanctions on the Chinese, and that would devastate the Chinese economy"

Only the Americans tend to do war well over more than one of the 4 domains (land sea air cyber). China and Russia have high impressive numbers in military costs and equipment but haven't really invested that much in logistics and organization and coordination across domains. So its great for them to have all these weapons but if they can't actually use them in a coordinated way ...

Unlike Russia, China still seeks to be known as a legitimate or respected leader. You can't do that just by material power alone. It would have to get other country's to accept its ownership over Taiwan for that, it couldn't just start bombing Taiwan. So the Chinese are now thinking How do we do that?

The Covid19 pandemic began a process of diversification away from China. And factoring in the real political risk of being so reliant on China.
 
Russia is a massive surplus producer and exporter of food stuffs and energy. China is the world's largest importer of all of that, especially for the imports necessary to grow food. The sanctions placed on Russia if placed on China would lead to a de-industrialization of the entire Chinese system in under a year, according to Ziehan.

Boycotts. Shareholders, consumers can take a stand to change corporate policy. That's a surprise to China, according to Zeihan.

Agriculture is the sector facing the most threat over the next 10 to 20 years and it will result in multi-continental famines (between the Ukraine war and the breakdown of fertilizer supply chains) -Zeihan

When we globalized, everyone learned to specialize. It was all about the extra value added. And we didn't really worry about having to grow sufficient food for our own plates, so we got into better things. We moved into manufacturing and services. We moved into the city. Agriculture moved from the center of everyone's lives to the edge. It became reliable the more secure and safe globalization became. That's working in reverse now. Countries have to grow their own food (now dependent on and on land only useful with fertilizers), and that means the volume produced is going to go down.


60 years. Only certain types of business.
Gravitas: China's Sichuan shuts all factories to save electricity - YouTube
Mystery deepens over Al-Qaeda chief Ayman Al-Zawahiri's death | International News | WION - YouTube


September 2022

"China is probably the biggest loser in the Ukraine war after Ukraine itself." - Zeihan

"Because they're the last country in the kick line, everyone else gets their stuff first." (Energy, Food from the Russian space)

A couple destroyers in the Indian Ocean basin would be enough to end China's energy imports.

(Because China's warships can only do 400 miles under combat situations.)

In 5 years the US will be in a better position than it is now, with a better supply chain - Zeihan
 
East Asia primary source on income is manufacturing.
Tehran has all of a sudden lost its primary weapons sponsor and its primary Security Council sponsor - Zeihan

They'll start to think and act differently. (Zeihan still). They may negotiate differently.
 
He thinks Israel and Syria will have some firework competitions (because he thinks Biden has recently changed his stance from a former strong opposition to potential war there) and Syria will sue for peace.

He thinks the Poles, Latvians, Fins, etc will try to peel off Belarus out of R. orbit. He sees Lukashenko sued for war crimes for providing access to Russia into Ukraine.

Saudis (how much energy can be brought to market) will decide the government of Caracas through it's influence on the decisions of the US.
Things no one is heard guessing:

- What a conclusion in Ukraine might look like
- If Putin remains in power if Russia loses
- Under what circumstances might sanctions against Russia be lifted
Opening the Venezuela/Colombia border

A ton of Venezuelans want to cross the Darian Gap and go north into the USA (we could posit that if they were closer they would all already be there). Groups go regularly across the dangerous passage. It takes 2 weeks to arrive in the States. ... Between them and the Darian Jungle is Colombia, which has been a great friend politically to America for years. Colombia elected Petro, a ‘socialist’ president (their first Leftist president) who took office in August. He opened the border with Venezuela a few days ago.

For previous years, Venezuealans already crossed easily into Colombia, and millions are new immigrants who crossed not though the border. How much difference does legal crossing make?

Venezuelans prisons are overfull. Prisoners crossing is being discussed on Colombian analysis news. (Interesting to remember how Britain exported its prisoners to places like Australia over 100 years ago. To contrast, everyone talks about how currently America makes a profit for selected groups though the monetization of incarceration.) However, how many of these Venezuealans are in for polical crimes (black market petrol sales) or economic crimes (people who would not sell so many illegal products if there was a healthy economy to work in)? Or for drug crimes (drugs which are increasily being made legal in many countries)?

Yesterday in Colombian cities there were large marches in protest of the new president. Signs carried were about taxes, breaking Antioquia into three pieces, and the Darian Gap, among other themes. Most of the marchers were older, unlike many protest marches.

Side note. Colombians say Venezuealans are tall. How true is this?
October 2022
"India will not be the next China ... It will be bigger"

... title of a vlog I saw.

What were the preexisting weaknesses of China that it inevitably had to face? versus those of India?

China has a lot of energy

Runaway energy usage on crypto-miners. Some think China made a mistake, and there should be more freedom to do crypto-mining in China. But what is the production? Once mines are set up, they only need a few people to run them.

Why out of China? Capital controls, it can be challenging to tax, can leave borders.

OPEC cut [really around 900k] barrels

SA ok, but UAE and Kuwait seemed to be on board. Becky on CNBC asked why they didn't raise their hands if they're supposed to be US allies.

Putin signed into law the annexation of about 18% of Ukraine


 
45 days as PM of Britain (shortest ever), Truss resigned

Elected by 'less than 1/10 of 1%. She appointed to leadership only friends and like-mindeds.'

About 7 days for them to find out who the next PM will be. Not a General Election. Sunak is favorite in betting. Boris is among the potentials.


He expects China to retaliate (perhaps against US tech companies in China) for Biden's banning exports of tech stuff to China.

Military spending to go up.

New footage from China congress fuels questions about why Hu Jintao was hauled out - YouTube
November 2022
Americans 77% have a favorable impression of South Koreans now (versus 31% in 2003). BTS and Squid Game.

Traditional ally UK, 57%. Americans have a higher impression of South Korea than of Australia and France, also.

China consistently has soured relationships when a country speaks out (often about Taiwan), and for China this is a no-go and China penalizes (economic action) them some way or other).

NBA tweet led to a ban.

The way China is run curbs any action to gain soft power, commented Aini. Everything that China has to show (which would be good for its image) has to go through a censorship and propaganda filter, filtering anything that could be seen as detrimental to the State. What comes out doesn't strike a chord. "China itself is actually stifling a lot of the soft power that it could have." Despite headlines saying China has a $10b soft power budget.

Some things that China is exporting are a makeup thing, Douyin, and a game, Genshin Impact.

If China drops it's filter, though, it will become more influenced (and communicate more?) with the West, which could lead to more instability.

People note that nowadays, anytime anyone even talks about or mentions something that is 'Chinese culture' in a positive sense, other people 'backlash' and start making comments that are negative about something China does that aren't really relevant to the original topic.

Another thing is that a lot of Douyin makeup is just reposted as 'Korean makeup' despite its Chinese creators, which is a label that might get more interest or views.

Chinese can't access the world to show their culture because they're blocked, unlike Japan and Korea.


Anywhere but China (ABC) when looking for a factory nowadays. But 'Who lost America?' for China? They had the biggest lobby in America, the US business community. Advocating stronger, deeper ties with China.

US and China are still intertwined though, and have 40 years of ties (sending kids to study in the other country, buying factories in the other country).

It is thought that although they are competitors and peers, they do not share values. How true is this? Tom Friedman says this difference in values didn't matter while China was selling the US low tech goods, but when China started selling really important tech, that value difference became important.


Headlines about Russian missile landing in (NATO member) Poland and killing 2 people

On the Ukraine border.

G19 day, G20 tomorrow. Sentiment seems to be 'pissed off'. Prognostication seems to be 'increased support for Ukraine', which means more money being sent there in the form of weapons.

Some things Poland might respond with, according to a redditor: "Additional arms and funding (remember those requests for jets?), decreased restrictions on the use of arms, incentives for foreign legion involvement, providing facilities to hold POWs, missile defense coverage for at least part of Ukraine, asset seizure, war criminal abduction, covert operations that go unacknowledged..."

Yesterday Zeihan posted about the start of the 'fall of Crimea'. Russia did a withdrawal from a location, because no way to supply its forces without the rails (alternative was more roundabout routes overland or over the Black Sea).


Hundreds of people.

China said they were migrant workers, reportedly.

Rising numbers of cases of Covid in China recently.

"I don't think invading Taiwan is a good idea, even for China, and I think the Chinese know this. But because they know how much the balance of power matters, they believe they need to have the capacity to invade it." - Samo Burja
Serious protests in China against lockdowns

... for Covid and various things involved with that which the people are not happy with, one of the main ones being that officials come to just take people away (a certain number of those present, it seems, rather than anything purposeful, which people in the videos say they ‘don’t understand this Covid policy') because there is ‘a case in the building.'

Some sang ‘Sea and Sky’, some sang ‘The Lonely and the Brave,’ some sang ‘Unity is Strength’ from highrise buildings that had ‘concerts’.

Lots of footage being published, with hundreds of people passing barricades, protests, yelling things at officials. On social media, Chinese have been using other (Chinese) languages to bypass to some degree censorship of language.

‘The resistence is a result of people’s bottom line being repeatedly challenged.'

More technical news starts at around 20:00

South Korea 2022

K-pop very important to the Korean economy and now (BTS visit to the UN) Korean politics.

Is it sustainable long-term? "It doesn't matter. That's sort of what the whole ecosystem was built for. The reputation of the cars feeds into the reputation of the phones, and the reputation of the makeup and the movies and the films. If one falters, the others can pick up the pace. ... Korea's very innovative. They're always ready ... to start new things. They're very long-term thinking ... If you're just doing 4-year terms it doesn't work." - Euny Hong

Next, AI, holograms, entertainment.

ABBA was once second-earner to Volvo, maybe, for Sweden.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HkkHyUDTqw&list=WL&index=10

There's a Korean version of just about everything. Browser, food, fashion.

Most K-pop groups have foreign members now. It's not the exception, closer to the rule. ... Squid Game cast wasn't all Korean. Diversity. What's Korean (culture-wide) is now being redefined and maybe expanded. The population is aging and maybe shrinking, thinking about immigrants, embracing them as Korean. They have to reach out and collab more, it's not just out of charity but out of necesity, good business. ... This will make it not just sustainable but thrive. Things made not just for Koreans but for export as well. Exporting both culture (entertainment) but also technology.

How to translate that into things Korea really cares about? like the immediate neighborhood and preserving security. Korea is the smallest country there amongs larger major powers. “Having the power of attraction is like having a great playmaker on your team but you still need a close-er” - Scott Snyder.

What does Korea stand for? It's a very successful country, but one of the most stressed OECD society. As they grow quickly they experience stresses.

Their soft power is causing backlash in China. To be sure, though, N Koreans are watching their drama.

Korean language courses at colleges are full, and half of the students are non-heritage, and all of it has to do with Korean pop culture. How to turn that into lifelong supporters and friends of Korea, much like Japan has done with the past generation.

'Korea is having difficulties deciding between the US and China, but on values Korea shouldn't have difficulty making a choice. It's very hard for Korea to talk about values anywhere that China has interest, for example Hong Kong. That's problematic if we're talking about soft power. You can't be a values producer and values projector on a conditional basis.'

Beijing in effective shutdown, a week after announcing 'easing'

Situation is more confused now, as local officials want to look like they're matching the government's easing policy, but also want to keep deaths at zero.



2.5% growth in subSaharan Africa (3x the global average).

The effect of growth depends on the country. If the country has decent government and the citizens are taken care of, more population may cause less problems. Nigeria, says one man, is the opposite.

Nigeria expected to be 3rd largest country by 2050.

Politics

January 2022
Thousands of UK medical professionals being fired for refusing vaccine mandate against will

1 in 10 NHS professionals are not vaccinated. They will be fired pretty soon upon a mandated deadline.


Chief medical officer should be replaced by Supreme Court style panel, suggested by Valuetainment

Because Fauci is the constant between the Trump and Biden admins, Fauci's position on (I don't know what it was but it's in a popular book called the Truth about Fauci) AIDS in the 80s.

"I don't think that position, moving forward, I'm comfortable being one person. I think it's a Supreme Court model [that would be better]. ... On one side, you got somebody that's part of the Peter McCollaugh camp, somebody that's part of a Malone camp ... on the other side, you got a Fauci, you got any of these guys. Sit down, hash it out, let us, let Congress people, question both of you. But right now the only person's argument you're allowed to hear is Tony's.





Three strategies recommended in a German government paper: 1. Fear of death by suffocation; 2. Fear of although you get better it can kill you some time later; 3. Having children believe their grandparents can die for their fault.

UK government has been the number one customer for advertising in media in UK since start of pandemic.

All the news, especially in a crisis, comes from the government. You need a good contact. If you act as a media broadcaster for the government, you get special benefits.

If you don't comply with the rules, you are ostracized and a nazi.

Pharma, big tech, and government, cooperating with the government, make this mass hysteria possible.

Ways to reduce stress from mass hysteria: exercise and socializing, seeing the faces of other people, smiling. Having fun. Going out to drink, do sports. Forbidden under 'lockdown.'

Isolation, more vulnerable to messaging (also to 'brainwashing'). Constant bombardment with the same message.

Decline of religion and church (functions in community, support), more vulnerable to mass hysteria, psychological problems in general.

"Constitutions are to protect the citizens against the government, but they did not fulfill this role. If this was their role, they totally failed. So constitutions are not the way to go. I think the size of the government has to be reduced. So the connections to the media, the connections to the government should be totally separated, for Big Tech also, for pharmacy, there should be no influence.' - Phillip Bagus.

'If there is just one voice, if he talks out of this halls of Congress, that normal people cannot walk into, from there he says "There's this killer virus," then you believe. If government would not be responsible for that, if it would be private, there would be many independent specialists about public health, about health issues, which would compete with each other and one would say "This is a killer virus," another would say "No, don't freak out, don't panic, act normal more or less, take some measures." But when you have all this power to the government, then this message of fear can really overwhelm you and lead to the panic.'

Government controls education, the media.

'However, a huge part of the population in this crisis has stopped to believe in government. They have become more skeptical, From all political backgrounds. Because the lies of government, what they told about the vaccine, about the threat, and the harm they actually did to people, that people can actually feel it. Many people want their liberty back.'

'Governments have an incentive to increase threats and use them to increase their power.'

Also, 'With the State, the politicians have very bad incentives with the mass hysteria, because they face asymmetric payoffs. When they underestimate the threat, that is very bad. They will be ousted. They are responsible. If they overestimate threat. There might also be deaths, but they are not as directly connected with the threat (suicides, bad health, economic). Not connected to the politician decisions. In any case they have the media to protect them. ... The result is to overreact. To do a lockdown. The costs the politician does not assume. He will get his salary, but the people who lose their jobs, their savings, the business they built, they lose. People who get depressions they lose. The politician does not face these. He can externalize them.'

Macron referred to the 5m French who are unvaccinated as 'non-citizens'

... and said, "I really want to piss them off. And so we will continue to do so, to the bitter end. That's the strategy." More protests in the streets followed this. "Liberte" was among the chants.

Recently Biden also said something like he was 'losing patience' with Americans who didn't agree with universal mandatory vaccination in this case, as though he were not the their civil servant but rather their patriarch?

FOI act info in UK and Covid numbers

In 2020 Q1, the total deaths of people from ONLY Covid (no other underlying conditions), was 9400. Average age 81. That was when the pandemic started, and there were not yet any vaccines.

(UK has 68m people.)

2021 Q1, total deaths 6500. Average age around the same.

Q2 total deaths 350.

Q3 total deaths 1150.

In the first 3 quarters of 2021, 17,500 people died of Covid without having other underlying conditions. The average age was 82 years (higher than average life expectancy 79 for men 83 for women).

This is not what MSM in the UK has been leading people to believe. Official government data says 137k people have died as of Sep 30 2021. This includes all deaths where the person tested positive for Covid, no matter how they died. Seven times higher than the data they have not reported.

Relatedly,

A former WHO authority (did he resign?) Karol Sikora (U of Buckingham prof now) said about 50k more people have died from cancer over past 18 months, due to failure to report early, difficulty in seeing a GP, fear of hospital admissions, missed chemo or radio.

There are 6m people waiting for NHS treatment right now.

US hospitals reimbursed for hospitalizations for Covid, but not for other things

Some claim the economic incentive causes bad data and perhaps less than great practice.

Tax funded.

Austria became the first country to make vaccines mandatory

A lockdown solely for the unvaccinated. Tyranny? It was a Christmas without being allowed to go out. Only out for "essential reasons" like shopping at the supermarket.

In a couple weeks there will be vaccine mandate, meaning there will no longer be a choice to not get the vaccine (except a few medical exceptions). Those not vaccinated will have to pay 200 Euros per person per month. If you refuse, you will be fined a further 3600 Euros. Then they will start confiscating your property and then send people to jail, at least according to some.

Protests of even over 100k people (country has 8.5m people).
A general strike is currently being organized, and is seen as the most effective way to fight back against the government.

Regarding data protection (which is a serious thing in Europe), does this introduce an unlawful dragnet search?


The vlogger says she doesn't see an effortless end to this, but rather actions and courageousness to fight the government.

 
Video of police hauling off old woman due to vaccine mandate

... in Australia. It's the image of it. (I haven't watched it.)

But an example of what happens when not everyone quietly does what the government says or avoids things, but instead goes about their civilian life which causes a confrontation.

February 2022
"Hundreds of thousands of people who died in the US did not have to die" - John Nichols, author of Coronavirus Criminals and Pandemic Profeteers

"Globally, it's in the millions."

He said a study published in Lancet suggests roughly 40% of deaths in the first year were unnecessary.

The Pfizer vaccine now accounts for 25% of the company's profits.

The People's Vaccine Project estimates the 3 vaccine makers make about $65k a minute from the vaccines (that would mean $93m per day).

In 2021 the vaccines created 9 new billionaires, according to Oxfam (months ago though so could be more).

The vaccines were developed with taxpayer money (Moderna). The president and Congress have not really done much to try to have them pay taxes on excess profits in this type of moment.

His book is about people who took advantage or made profits from the pandemic, such as Bezos.

MSM and politicians are calling trucker protest in Canada an 'insurrection'

"Never in my 56 years have I ever experienced a country so divided, so full of hatred towards friends and neighbors. They may have opinions that differ from theirs, but they're so willing to publicly shame and humiliate and spew forth angry vitriol. We have been called 'terrorists.' For the first 36 we were inundated with hatred with threats of violence. People threatened our team on the phone, telling them "We're coming to get you." "We're going to throw bricks through your window." "You'll pay for this you nazi supporter." I personally have been called a disgusting pig of a woman and that I shall rot in hell." Our rural shop out in Meritville, Ontario, someone draped a large bedsheet over our sign ... and the sign read, "Tammy supports terrorists." - Tammy, the woman who was doxed after donating $250 of her own money to the Canadian trucker protest.

"Late yesterday messages of support and encouragement started to arrive, and people from coast to coast to coast throughout Canada and the US, they've been buying gift cards online and calling themselves 'guardian angels.'"

"Our kids arrived today and there were heart-shaped balloons hanging from the door handle and the window was covered with little sticky notes and they were all these inspiration notes of encouragement.

Feds are buying data about people from a company that gets it from several apps

If you are an app developer, and you sell your app data to some company, it can be used this way.

Some of these apps are for things like gay dating (Bro) and religious prayer and study (Muslim Pro, an app that notifies people 5 times per day it's time for them to pray) (Full Quran, an audio book of the Quran), as well as one where people upload their faces and do virtual makeup on it (Perfect365).

CDC isn't publishing most of the info it has been collecting about Covid patients (referring to boosters)

They left out 18-49 year-olds, basically skewing the data to sell booster efficacy, according to Breaking Points. Apparently they also had data about breakthrough infections and didn't publish it.



Belarus constitutional referendum: They voted in favor of hosting nuclear weapons and allow leader to extend his rule (possibly an additional 10 years) and give him immunity to prosecution once he leaves office

The West said they wouldn't recognize the referendum results, which happened while Russia was invading Ukraine and while Belarus was serving as a launchpad for some of the invading Russian troops.

Russia-Ukraine peace talks on 5th day of war

In Belarus, on the Ukraine-Belarus border. Delegations from each country which don't include the two leaders.

Video being reported on where a Ukrainian is dipping bullets in pig fat, to use against Chechen Muslim
Zelenskyy wasn't popular among many European nations before, but now he's seen as a kind of folk hero, an underdog fighting for his nation

... some say. He didn't accept the US invitation for him to come to the States. He reportedly hasn't been avoiding battles, joining the soldiers where the fighting is. And he has demonstrated he can work 24 hours a day.

Norway's said it will unwind its $3b worth of Russian holdings from its sovereign wealth fund

March 2022
Zelenskyy repeats request for Ukraine to become part of EU
Some draw a parallel between Russia's current invasion and the 2003 US invasion of Iraq

US government entered after saying Iran had weapons of mass destruction, and held up that little prop vial on TV.

Ideas of Ali Abunimah talking to BreakThrough News:

"After 9/11, there was this atmosphere of jingoism, of war fever, of vengefulness, that was directed at other countries and very quickly towards Afghanistan and also toward Iraq. We know how that played out. But also it was internally directed because if you were Muslim, Sikhs, people of color generally lived in terror in this country at that time. ... There was pervasive fear not just of vigilante attacks but of government, monitoring and deportations. ... If you said, "Why did this happen? How did this happen? What led to this point? What are the policies of the US that could have created the conditions for this to happen, you were accused of justifying it. You were accused of justifying it, you were treated as an enemy. You were treated as a traitor. Nothing would be allowed to interfere with the headlong rush into war.

"The 9/11 attacks happened in September. By late October the US was invading Afghanistan. Then ... in 2003 they started the march to the war in Iraq based on lies. One of the lies was that Saddam Hussein was involved in 9/11. There was absolutely no evidence of that but it was a story they put out. polls ... the majority of Americans believed [that] ... in addition to the question of weapons of mass destruction."

"I would ask a lot of people who naively supported the invasion of Afghanistan back then, 'If you knew what you know now back then, would you support it again?' Same with Iraq. Forget about people who say this is immoral, this is illegal, this is a war crime."

"People would say, 'But we were attacked.'"

"That's a fact we can't change. Is the response to escalate more war or is it to seek a different approach?"

"I get the same responses today. When you say, 'How did we get here?' you're accused of justifying what Putin did. You're taking the side of Russia. "

"One of the grievances Putin has is the expansion of NATO."

 
John Meashiemer 2015 said in a lecture,

"But I actually think that what's going on here is that the West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path, and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked. And I believe that the policy [of] neutralizing Ukraine, building it up economically, getting it out of the competition between Russia on one side and NATO on the other is the best thing that could happen to the Ukrainians.

"What we're doing is encouraging the Ukrainians to play tough with the Russians. We're encouraging the Ukrainians to think that they will ultimately become part of the West, because we will ultimately defeat Putin and we will ultimately get our way. Time is on our side. And of course the Ukrainians are playing along with this and ... almost completely unwilling to compromise with the Russians, and instead wanna pursue a hardline policy.

"... it would make much more sense for us to work to create a neutral Ukraine."

A year after the US-sponsored coup in Ukraine when far-right elements were weaponized by the US to overthrow the government and install what the US thought would be a more pliable one (how Ali Abunimah put it).


Lots of talk among commentators about promises made by the West in order to have the Soviet Union disbanded

... in like 1990 (but over several years, and under several US presidents making having talks). The idea was that in the talks, there was nothing in writing, but it was made clear to Moscow that if the SU allowed the reunification of Germany that NATO would not be expanded. That NATO troops would not be able to enter into the eastern part of Germany (only to West Germany).

It wasn't a treaty, but it was (people are saying) the agreement that was made.

FIFA banned Russia from participating in World Cup

FIFA refused to suspend teams located in Israeli settlements in Israeli occupied lands, which violate FIFA's own rules (teams can't play in the territory of another country), according to Ali Abunimah.


Perhaps EU wants to prove its relevance in the situation - Russian EU delegate

"Since 2014 the Kiev regime has been fighting its own people." - Lavrov (Russian FM to UN Council)

"The ultra-nationalists and neo-nazis who seized power in Kiev after a revolution supported by the West unleashed real terror.

"It is impossible to remember the terrible tragedy in Odessa on May 2, 2014 without shuddering.... The criminals who committed this crime were known by name. They posed in front of cameras ...

"Attempts to draw the attention of the UN human rights council to the atrocities that have been going on for 8 years ran into their indifference." etc. Speech in YouTube link below outlines Russias position.

US wanted to turn Ukraine into anti-Russia, as the meaning of their existence - Sergei Lavrov
"Basically, the US regime creates crises, lives off of crises and feeds on various crises in the world. Ukraine is another victim of this policy." - Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

"Among the 248 armed conflicts that occurred in 153 regions in the world from 1945 to 2001, 201 were initiated by the US, accounting for 81% of the total number" - Chinese embassy in Russia

They posted a list on their website.

Victor Gao of Soochow U said China believes Ukraine has been used by the US and Western countries. He said what the US and Europe were doing with sanctions were destabilizing for the region.

He said US benefits because they want to sell L&G to Europe without competition from Russia, whose LNG is cheaper and more sustainable.

"Ivermectin use was associated with decreased mortality in patients compared with Remdesevir," according to a newly published paper. But that paper has been withdrawn.

AP published an article saying the research article was 'flawed.'


Long list of side effects to look out for - YouTube

... the commenter said Z couldn't ban those ones.

April 2022
Gravitas: Hong Kong separates 2,000 Covid-positive children from parents - YouTube 
Iran could teach Russia how to evade sanctions and 'money launder', according to an opinion piece in the WSJ (Dubowitz and Zweig)

Of Tehran could serve as Russia's broker, taking a cut of the "illicit" trade it facilitates on Russia's behalf.

Iran has a 'money laundering' architecture, a system they could make available to others.

US/West kicked Iran of Swift, reduced their oil sales from 2.5b barrels to a few hundred thousand. So Iran has dealt with harsher sanctions than Russia (which still sells gas to Europe and has some institutions on Swift reportedly).


India and Russian energy

India has appeared somewhat in Western news over recent weeks with a sort of insinuation that it shouldn't buy Russian oil. However, today an Indian politician noted that India's monthly purchase of Russian oil is less than Europe's daily purchase.
France election coming up, and people wondering if Le Pen (nationalist) is France's Trump

Macron still expected to keep his position, though.

#France
Democrats try for new gun legislation, citing 'ghost guns'

Guns that can be ordered as a kit and assembled (from 3 or 4 large parts or blocks of parts, it looks like).
UK making headlines for plan to send refugees to Rwanda

PM Boris Johnson also made headlines this week for making an apology for violating mask mandate (and something about a fine).
Germany is increasing defense spending by $2b

"We're seeing an incredible, very interesting shift in German politics not only when it comes to supplying these weapons [to Ukraine] but also on this discourse on this discussion What it means to be a pacifist. And it's just standing by from the sidelines and seeing how Russia continues to attack Ukraine. ... Many are saying that if you want to support peace and you want to actually support Ukraine they need more than just solidarity on social media. They need either this oil and gas embargo or they need delivery of the heavy weapons the Ukrainian president has repeatedly requested." People saying you can still be a pacifist while calling for and supplying these weapons for Ukraine.

This activist movement in Germany is reportedly a changed movement, the same movement that in the 60s and 80s called for disarmament, especially nuclear disarmament.

Another thing Germans are saying is that one of the reasons this war occurred is because of NATO expansion.

In Germany the main activists protesting are Germans, Ukrainians and Syrians.



Disney expected to lose self-governing status

It's had this status since it opened in the 1960s, so it can do it's own utilities and emergency services and things no the ground it occupies. It made this arrangement with Florida back then.

But recently CEOs for Disney there spoke out against a bill (the bill would ban the teaching of gender issues to children kindergarden - grade 3) and said they'd try to have it appealed.

Florida politicians didn't like that such a big company can try to effect lawmaking in this way.

The bill to take away Disney's self-governing status is making it's way through legal channels very quickly. But Disney has some months before it would take effect anyway, so the matter isn't settled for sure.

50m people visit Disney each year.

"Africans do not want to be part of your (EU) foreign policy. We want to be free to determine for ourselves whether to condemn or not to condemn Russia." - Halifa Sallah

Speech - YouTube
May 2022
Denmark suspends vaccinations - YouTube 
US is going to take 'drastic new steps' flying in baby formula with military jets from other countries

The FDA commissioner was grilled today by Congress about why it's taken months to investigate the Abbot lab. He said they could have done better.

One of the bills passed by congress was to increase funding for the FDA, partially so they can do more oversight.

BIden invoked the Defense Protection Act, a wartime tool, to force manufacturers who produce baby formula to prioritize baby food.


June 2022
Gravitas: India hits back at US after religious freedoms report - YouTube 
US pres Biden invokes Defense Protection Act to get US producers to make more parts for clean energy

They also lifted tariffs on solar powers from (not China but) Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia and Thailand.

US is investigating if some Chinese companies are circumventing US customs duties by assembling parts in poor countries.

The same Defense Production Act that Biden used to force more baby food production: Baby formula shortage in USA big plant (Abbot in Michigan) was put on pause by the FDA. After some

NASA has decided to do a probe into UFO sightings

Cost is $100k. 9 month study starting this year.
Belgian king expresses regret for what happened in Congo decades ago (post-1880 labor camp)

Some want Belgium to apologize, not just express regret, but he didn't do this during his speech during his visit.

US and Canada removed COVID travel restrictions for tourists

He's talking about July 4, one of the 3 holidays where Americans spend a ton of money. They buy lots of food and gas. We'll see if they can afford to do it this year like past years.

Difference from 2008. 2008 it affected roughly 60% of the population. Today, with inflation, no matter who you are, where you live, how much you make, it will affect you.

Trump misidentified the stock market as the thing Americans look to to decide whether things are good or bad. Biden misidentified jobs.

33% of Americans blame the war in Ukraine. 25% blame corporations for charging too much (Biden is trying to blame Exxon etc for the reason why gas prices are so high).

"The key is not who they blame. The fundamental key is who they think is trying to solve it. And this is where the administration comes up short."

"The Biden administration is afraid of the political impact so they're downplaying the personal impact. And the truth is they should be candid."

Biden's approval lowest right now since Carter in 1978

Is it that there wasn't allowed video before? This release of video has been a headline.

A few hundred people entered the Capitol building 2 years ago.

In the event, one woman died from being shot. During the event, 3 other people had medical emergencies which they died from.
July 2022

August 2022
Dr. Fauci announces he's stepping down - YouTube
Texas sends more than 9,000 migrants to NYC and DC - YouTube
September 2022

Trump's ideas are now sort of the orthodoxy - Victor Davis Hanson

"He could say, I gave you this agenda. That everybody seems to agree that we have to restore the industrial capacity of America. We've gotta be tough on China. We've gotta have a border that's secure. We have to have a different foreign policy. We have to have responsible monetary policy. We've gotta pump oil and gas. And people were not talking about it like I was. And now we're all on the same page."

Versus the Left's 'Lassaz-faire creative destruction 'They should have learned code' (Left turned on its base who didn't succeed like they had) we need cheap labor from other countries for corporate America so we need an open border.' They substituted White for class. Not just black people, but everybody has grievances (even rich ones) against Whites.

Hanson says Trump has to not dwell on himself though, if he wants to be current. Or that he could step aside, allowing his ideas to continue for the party but with someone who won't incite the NeverTrumpers. More easy to focus on the issues.

The Left has the money, the influence, the reach, in this new globalized economy. The Right has the middle classes.

A Versailles Left that dresses up and plays like peasants, moralistic. A Jacobin Left that doesn't believe people are able to make better decisions than they as government can for everyone. A Maoist Left.
Health uber alles - Dennis Prager

"In the name of health, you can do ANYTHING. Anything. You can lie, you can suppress, you can be cruel, you can distort, you can get rid of doctors who dissent, in the name of health."


Over the past weeks there have been big protests in Iran, and dozens of people have died

October 2022
Kanye buying Parler Social Media platform?

"Nashville-based Parler, which has raised about $56 million till date, said it expects the deal to close during the fourth quarter of 2022. It did not give a deal value." - Reuters

Kanye has been blocked from his Insta etc accounts in the past.


How many meetings, over what time frame, is average for a significantly solid peace, in this region and in other regions?

5PMs in 6 years for UK. Each one so impressive!
Will ISI's revelations bring down public support for Imran Khan? | International News | WION - YouTube
November 2022


US midterm elections

Summers said he thought it was a step away from extremes toward a stable center holding. People not fighting over the results, losing candidates conceding.
Sam Bankman-Fried's political connections. Take this video with a grain of salt. This YouTuber just came across my feed, so I don't know how reliable he is. Later though, I saw quite a lot of YouTubers covering this, including MSM.

Democrats did better than expected (past few months expectation)

People thought Republicans would take maybe both houses, because of taxes and Biden things, but now people think that because of the Republican pro-life thing, people went out and voted Democrat.

Also bad candidates hurt the Republicans.

Biden maybe 'caused global inflation', but 'people still have their jobs.' And they vote how they feel.


Trump announced he would run in 2024 last week

He gave a long announcement speech. Some commented he seemed more tired than last time.

Economics

January 2022
2022, the world's largest trade is in arms, followed by the drug trade, still

$500b yearly, controlled by criminal networks.

Opium in Asia.Central Asia, Golden Triangle, Golden Crescent. Cannabis resin in Morocco. Cocaine mainly from Colombia. Biggest consumers are US and Europe. Transport over sea and air.

Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna will make pre-tax profits of $34 billion this year from vaccines

$93.5 million a day.

Moderna delivered 0.2% of their total vaccine supply to low-income countries. Pfizer/BioNTech delivered less than 1%, according to People's Vaccine Alliance.


Berkshire one of the best stocks this year

After taking some flack during the bounceback in 2019 for not being on board with new stocks.

Kathy Wood's Ark Invest is down.

It has "everything you could want in this environment." Cash to take advantage of opportunities, real estate exposure, industrial, railroad (which is charging record rates), financial exposure, energy, utilities.

Buffet was like the last man standing after the dot com bubble too. He was ridiculed in the 90s for not understanding the appeal of the tech thing.

Market sell off has been a few days now

Shortage of buyers.

Big tech stocks seem to analysts like they're trying to go back down to pre-pandemic levels. Amazon was down over 5% today. Netflix, a $250b company, was down 22%.

Questions about margin calls.

Everything was red, though. Growth and value. Tech, energy, and reopening trades.

People are talking about 'what price to buy stocks at.' They had been saying over the past year that multiple and actual value seem to not matter, and that there was so much retail investment, and no one cared about looking at actual business value, it was possible to say you should buy stocks without considering value.

Buffet is now up. Berkshire over the past months has been one of the best stocks. Kathy Wood's Ark is down.
The market was up 25% in the past year.

Monetary and fiscal and economic uncertainty, which is expected to get worse in the upcoming months.
 

IMF is urging El Salvador to not use Bitcoin as legal tender
Covid-19 vaccines and treatments: we must have raw data, now

The authors of this paper, published in BMJ, say people don't have access to real, good (raw) data on the vaccines.

In the paper, they write, "The anonymized participant level of data underlying the trials for these new products remain inaccessible to doctors, researchers, and the public" despite the global rollout.

The authors asserted that, "This is morally indefensible for all trials, but especially for those involving major public health interventions."

"The company and the contract research organization that carried out the trial hold all the data."

Pfizer indicated it wouldn't even begin to entertain requests for trial data until 2025.

It has been pointed out that a similar thing happened in 2009 - 2012 there was a large vaccination campaign for H1N1, and governments were stockpiling Tamiflu,how much did tamiflu make (UK spent 473m pounds on it. Anyone know how much it's made worldwide?) and there was a black market for the product. Major trials for it were sponsored by the manufacturer, and papers were ghostwritten and paid for by the manufacturers. Academics who requested access to the papers were denied.


February 2022
Shift to a buyers market more now

After the past couple years where every startup could ask billions of dollars
Buffet may have sold his airline stocks when the pandemic started not out of panic, but in order to save American jobs

... because if the world's richest man owned a huge stake, the government would have looked bad giving these companies bailouts.

This point was raised by Josh Brown.
 
Anyway, Berkshire is doing very well this year, and most of Buffets holdings (utilities, energy, banks, etc) are doing well.
"The Fed is signalling a tighter monetary policy, the economy is very strong, unemployment's low, earnings for many companies are at records, state tax receipts are rising way above expectations, credit card usage is high, stimulus is tremendous." - Bill Miller
"Monetary policy itself will likely put us into recession, because we don't have normal economic cycles anymore. We have credit cycles that ebb and flow with the cost of capital, and now that the cost of capital is going up, even though historically speaking it's still very low on an absolute basis, the rate of change is already changing mentality." - Peter Boockvar

"Since the 70s we have not seen such a low intention to buy a car."

"The IPO market is beginning to tighten up, and companies have to start looking for private financing instead of the public market."

"For the Fed to look at the curve and say 'Okay maybe we should not raise rates,' it's somewhat circular because it's the market's belief of their rate hike in the short end that is resulting in this flattening."

"Now with respect to QE and how that influences the curve, it's tricky also because in theory you'd say 'Okay if the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, if they're going to shrink their balance sheet, long rates would rise, but as we saw after QE1 and QE2 the exact opposite happened. When QE turned on rates actually went up. When it turned off rates went down. So it's an impossible situation that they've put themselves in, and the question now is At what level of pain are they willing to tolerate, both in terms of economic activity and where the markets go before they get spooked? But because of the elevated level of inflation, even though it will slow on a rate of change basis, it's still going to leave them very little flexibility to react to try to pull back."

"In a sentiment perspective, if inflation is driving interest rates hgher, and interest rates going higher is driving the stockmarket lower ... perhaps. Then that sentiment is going to, it's kind of like a circular kind of effect, where those people (earning $100k or more, who make up a large part of the 'consumer sentiment being lower' right now a the U of Michigan study) are driving a lot of the sentiment lower." - Dom Chu

Crude prices fell almost 3% as Russia pulls back some military forces from their close proximity to Ukraine

There have been a lot of headlines over the past week or two about a possible invasion.

'We're in an era of post-US shale hypergrowth. US shale is no longer growing more than global demand, and so there's a call on global super majors, but they can't pick up." - Eric Nuttall

Countries (like Nigeria, Angola) are underproducing, forsaking 100's of million of dollars per month. Because they have had the inability to invest new productive capacity. So there are very few members of OPEC that can actually meaningfully grow oil production. Many, including maybe Russia, are near their productive capacity.

We might see OPEC fair capacity exhaustion by the end of this year, which would be very bullish for the oil price, said Nuttall. But only energy producers and investors want higher prices. Therefore, even if Russia were to actually invade Ukraine, it is thought there wouldn't really be sanctions. Politically, democratic leaders maybe can't allow the oil price to go up much further. This might mean relaxing on Iran (the last suppressed producer which could easily come on line), also.

What allows oil producing companies to return the most free cash flow back to investors is long-life reserves, low corporate declines, and strong balance sheets. Canada has the best of all 3 of any jurisdiction in the world, but has among the lowest stock prices, according to Nuttall.

If there is $100 oil, they can privatize themselves, they can buy back every single share that is standing in just 2.6 years, while they are sitting on 15 years of inventory.

He said we're not 'high' in inventory, we're 'normal,' we're back to like the period 2010-2014 (in that 4-year time period, oil averaged over $100 and yet demand continued growing). We're not at the point where high price leads to demand discretion yet, he said, and won't until we see $130 or $140 oil, if like academic history it happens when oil hits 5-6% of global GDP. Nowadays, exhausting capacity plus end of US shale hypergrowth, the fundamental setup is more bullish than 2010-2014.

Because investors want returns (not growth of production), oil companies will continue to pay down debt, do dividends and increase dividends, moderate growth, moderate corporate decline (a company doesn't have to spend as much to keep their production up), rather than start new projects (multi-billion cost and then 4-6 years to come on line and then another 4 years to reach project payout). That means meaningfully higher oil prices.

He thinks demand will continue to grow for 10-15 years.

The perception of 'bad, dirty' oil has over the past years taken investors out, but now they're being 'dragged back in.'

Some people say China is winning over US in LatAm

The countries are simply taking the best deal offered them, even if it's something like Huawei, which the US tried to get Brazil not to deal with because of Huawei's alleged spying. China is reacting to the local need, some say

China's BioTech vaccine was the first vaccine available to Brazil. Some say LatAm countries are not happy with the way Washington handled the pandemic.


#China #Brazil #LatAm #InternationalRelations #Diplomacy
US at 12m barrels of oil per day, 25% more than Saudis

300% increase in rig counts since crash in ENP expenditures, because of the Covid recession.

Will be up to 13m per day by end of year.

US price per KWH is $15. The next cheapest is France at $25. Germany is $45.

One reason for not producing more (esp in Europe?) is this raises the price, so the population becomes more ready to do things to adopt renewable energy instead.

"For the first time ever, the EU will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment to a country that is under attack." - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen

Germany is transferring a bunch of weapons. So is Sweden, the first time its broken its historically neutral stance in 80 years. Other countries also.

Challenge in delivery as Ukraine's airports were early Russian targets.

Removal of Russia from Swift

But more important, commenters say, are the restrictions US and allies are placing on the R central bank.

R has $600b in foreign reserves. The restrictions aim at preventing Putin from using that money to fund the invasion and to keep the R central bank from offsetting the falling Ruble.

Putin has built up that big foreign reserve pile (3rd largest in the world) over several years, some say in an attempt to "sanction-proof" his economy. He's cut his debt ratio to GDP.

There's talks that Switzerland will even join the sanctions.

The Swift and R central bank sanctions may have isolated the R economy and put it into a sort of freefall. The R people will likely feel this, as will the R oligarchs.

They have not yet done trade sanctions (ie go after oil and gas), because Europe gets over 40% of its gas from Russia. Such sanctions would cost everyone around the world.

Russian stock market fell 40% before being put on hold

It's Monday.

US market also down. Europe market significantly down. Oil up. NatGas down. Gold up. Crypto significantly up.

At minimum, expected 3-5% reduction in Russian economy due to sanctions

Expectation is inflation will be worse in Europe than US

US is a net- energy exporter (since 2019).

Idea of Russia using crypto in the face of sanctions not so easy, reportedly

... because crypto trading isn't that high. There just isn't availability for the amounts he needs, people are saying.

Also, some endpoints are controlled.

Ukraine has put up cypto wallets for people to donate

... saying the money would be used to destroy as many Russian soldiers as possible, it was reported.

They've received several million into these wallets.

March 2022
"One sanction that Putin fears, and that is ending the purchase of natural gas from Gazprom." - Yanis Varoufakis

"... As we speak, Nordstream 1, the gas pipeline, is feeding the German industrial machine with 40% of its energy from Russian gas. They're not going to say anything about that, because this is a sanction they're not prepared to make."

Russians were at the ATMs trying to withdraw cash as fears of economic trouble in the country grows
Massive economic incentive to expand NATO after end of Soviet Union

All those former Soviet countries were outfitted wit Russian weapons. They had to be refitted with Western weapons (NATO all use the same weapons or something).

To create new markets for the big military equipment companies that wouldn't be buying as many tanks and warplanes etc since Cold War was over (ultimately US didn't buy less because War on Terror started in 2001).

- point raised by Ali Abunimah

How much has the US given the Ukraine for military over the past 5 or 10 years?

I heard someone say a billion.
Ivermectin ("horse drug") more effective than Remdesevir, according to two new studies

Denegrated and warned against by MSM, the Nobel prize-winning, WHO essential drugs-listed Ivermectin has been shown to be much more effective than Remdesevir in treating Covid. Less hospitalizations, less deaths.

Ivermectin costs a couple cents. Remdesevir costs like $300 per cycle.

The Miami study found you were 70% less likely to die if you took Ivermectin versus if you took Remdesevir.

The Brazil study found Ivermectin-only group had 70% less mortality than Remdesevir. The Ivermectin group was taking just a tiny amount of Ivermectin every 2 weeks as a prophylactics (prophelaxis?).

There was also a large (about 44%) reduction in infection (data from Brazil study).

This is not really being reported in MSM.



Top YouTube comment on this video:


MacDonalds and Starbucks stopped or are going to stop business in Russia

Amongst lots of others, apparently.

Samo Burja said about this, "Countries around the world will no longer see Western companies such as MacDonalds or Starbucks or Facebook or Twitter as neutral services. They'll consider it a strategic priority to develop their own."

He said India has for a while wanted to emulate China, and said it would be almost insane or treasonous for Indian leaders to not to start to block social media websites and develop their own.

If it is impossible to pursue an independent strategy, Burja said, and it has to play with the Western strategy, and has to trust in our multilateralism, our fairness, our justice, I think that's kind of a joke. "I think they have no good reason to find the West trustworthy."
Europe likely headed for recession, US not, according to Mark Mobius

US is going to be producing a lot of military equipment, and that will help its economy, he said.

"The Germans have been enabling Russia more than anyone else in behavior against our interests" - Samo Burja

He said they just have to do something else, whether its nuclear plants or de-industrializing.

LME halted trading in nickel, but also cancels all the days trades

The London Metal Exchange said it was what was best for the market, the exchange didn't keep to its neutral position, but "picked winners and losers." Cancelling orders (after the event - the held a meeting and decided to let trading continue, but then after the day they decided to cancel all that had happened) is basically unheard of. 500 nickel trades had been executed that day, worth almost $4b.

Nickel was up like 240%, a huge short squeeze.

When LME cancelled the trades that had already taken place, it wiped out an estimated $1.3b in profits and losses.

It has been said that the entity who would have benefited most from the trades being cancelled is Tsingshan Holding Group, the world's largest stainless steel producer, who was estimated to have lost $8b on their short position. Tsingshan's biggest lender and broker is China Construction Bank.

It was pointed out (most vigorously perhaps by those who lost on the cancelled trades) that the LME is owned by the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing.

The LME CEO said the owner of the LME had nothing to do with it.

This story is much more complicated, with the various companies involved, as well as the China being state controlled having some effects, and the Russian 'blood diamond' nickel issue: Cancelled Nickel Trades on the LME - YouTube

"Perversely, what is supposed to be the cleanest energy policy will turn out to be the dirtiest" - Samo Burja

He said he thinks that because for the past 20 years (more?) the German government has been telling the populace nuclear energy is like the worst thing, dangerous, it would be very difficult to now say to them that they're going to start building new plants, "I think you're just going to keep burning coal, because you will be forced to disentangle from Russia eventually."



"This week they're incredibly hawkish. A few weeks ago they were incredibly dovish."


Is crypto democratized or democratizing, really?

Vice actually did something people said was OK again with this video.

April 2022
Mortgage rates in US dropped 40% YoY amid rising rates (highest rates since 80s I think)
Indonesian coal

Has seen prices rise from $100 per ton in April 2021 to around $300 (it was $400 a bit ago). It started a while ago, before the Ukraine war, but has been effected by Europe's new energy issues.

The government of Indonesia requires coal producers to sell 25% in Indonisia at prices it decides ("domestic market obligation"), and the companies are making a good profit off the rest on the open market.

US will emerge as world's largest LNG producer this year, said Dan Yergin

How much gas that was going to go to Asia is now going to go to Europe (for strategic considerations) (depends if Asia has a severe or mild winter)?


"Because they see how the tourism industry is going, young people do not want to enter it." Entertainment same. Doing theater was "illegal," and people in the business faced bankruptcy.

Delivery services are doing well for the past 2 years. Online shopping innovations.

Gardening is up, even in cities.
Inflation 8.5% YoY in US, highest since 1981

For the Consumer Price Index

(However, some say in core inflation, US came in below estimates, which means some of inflation could be decelerating [not gas or food, which is highly effected by Ukraine].)

There were record increases in wages published recently, but adjusted for inflation we see it hasn't kept up, being down 2 or 3 percent when inflation is factored in.
There's also a question that big companies are accepting a degree of profit margin pressure, taking the loss and not passing it on to the consumer.

The market went up the morning this was put out though. Analysts thinking there might have been an even higher whisper number.

Republicans say part of the issue might be benefits programs ('lavish' unemployment benefits, health care, and a child tax credit no longer tied to work), which might have exacerbated the worker shortage. No incentive / "almost a denial" for workers to drive workers back to work (stimulus). Also that the president talking about higher tax rates all the time inhibits business investment. Places like Brazil lowering their tax rates to combat inflation.
Small business in US, inflation

31% say inflation is the most important issue, replacing 'labor quality' as the #1. (Taxes is #3.)

Inflation is leading to pessimism, some say. Owners expect business to be better over next 6 months: only 49% of them (50-year record low).
Supply for vehicles expected to return in 2023, according to Toyota CEO

Supply chain issues the number one reason there won't be enough cars for demand until then.

25% of sales are electrified cars (hybrid or full). That technology has improved to where it offers the performance consumers want, plus gas prices are rising.

Toyota does 65% of US full hybrid sales. Honda, for and Hyundai follow with about 10% each.
Sri Lanka announces default on all its external debt

$51bn.

They ran out of foreign exchange to buy food, fuel, etc.

The government there said foreign governments et al were free to recapitalize any interest payments, or to accept rupees.

SR needed $7b to service its debt this year but only had $2b in reserves.

New Delhi has sent thousands of tons to Colombo as part of a multi-pronged support plan.

Protests there for leader to step down.

Nepal banned import of luxury items

A first step to combat the possibility of a liquidity crisis like in Sri Lanka right now.

It has reserves for about 7 months.

Prices up for regular goods.

Tourism is a significant part of their economy.

Economists revising expectations for Chinese growth rate

Was at 5%. But now (strict lockdowns) aggregate demand will be lower from less economic activity. Expectations now about 4%.

Questions about supply chain issues stemming from Chinese manufacture, and the effect on global inflation rates, which is already affecting interest rates in US.

It's already brought oil prices lower.

Sri Lanka govt increased pharmaceutical prices 30% earlier this year when inflation came to that country

Pharmaceuticals running low, reportedly. No access to imported drugs, reportedly. Several hospitals are not performing surgeries.

"If supplies are not restored within days, the casualties will be far worse than from the pandemic" - SLMA

16k people have died of Covid in the country in the past couple years, according to reports.

Over the past half century, gas stations have gone from gas only, to gas plus service (checking fluids), to self-serve, to 'smokes and cokes,' to having their own snack items (which actually have brand loyalty, unlike gas stations), to being like grocery stores

The younger generation is also reportedly more brand loyal to shops like these.
 
Gas sale itself is not very profitable (7% markup). Food makes up like 70% of profits now, reportedly.
Comparative economics in 2022, amid Ukraine war, pandemic restrictions, global supply chain issues, etc.

If you're an energy producer or food producer (commodities), you're doing well. If you're an importer you're suffering.

Turkey has to import energy. (It also regularly receives 4m Russian tourists every year.) Egypt has to import food.

US politicians about other countries 'making a decision about where they are in this crisis.' China: Washington is poised to take a hard position towards China depending on the decisions they make. India. US wants both to oppose Russia.
Food insecurity

We don't yet know who will make up the 20 or 30% global wheat production which Ukraine usually does.
Supply chains

Things seem a bit worse now with China.

We don't know when supply chains are coming back.
Bretton Woods 3 - New world monetary order

Being talked about by some as having started when Russia invaded Ukraine, and the US (and West) blocked Russia's access to it's money with economic sanctions. Written about for everyone by Zoltan Pozsar, strategist at Credit Suisse.

The first Bretton Woods (the only formal actual agreement) was in 1944 (700 delegates from 44 allied nations met in New Hampshire for 3 weeks in July, establishing the IMF and a part of what would later be the World Bank). The British Pound was decreasing in value. The US dollar became the world standard. It was pegged to gold. It became the most common reserve currency (when a country exports more than it imports, it will end up holding foreign currency, so it has to decide which foreign currency to hold. Most picked US dollar). The second (informal but considered to be) "Bretton Woods" happened when in 1971 (but Bretton Woods I was considered OVER by 1973) Nixon decided the US was going off US-gold convertibility (after the US decoupled many fixed currencies followed, and currencies were allowed to float relative to each other - fiat currency. Price stability was the job of the central bank, controlling inflation, keeping it low, stable and predictable. (US buying a lot of Chinese goods and China holding US reserve currency was a hallmark of BW2. This Chinese holding of USD peaked in 2014 but is still up there). Dollar hegemony.

"Bretton Woods 3:" The West imposed severe sanctions on Russia this year, and Russia therefore had access to only $300b of its $600b of foreign reserves. The result is that central banks of every country are now concerned their foreign reserves can be confiscated this way if their actions fall foul of US policy.

Zoltan Pozsar says the core of our portfolios (and also the monetary system) will be in commodities in the future, and that central banks might have to bail out commodity traders (which seems to people an odd thing to say).

Zoltan drew an analogy between subprime assets 2008 which triggered the global financial crisis AND Russian commodities, which he considers to be sub prime. Prime assets are non-Russian commodities, which are kind of like treasuries in 2008, the safe haven assets everyone wanted to protect them from the equity storm. Urals (Russian) crude oil currently trades $30 (huge difference) below the price of Brent (delivered in the North Sea).

China, says Zoltan, will play a large role in bringing those subprime commodities (Russian ones) and prime commodities (non-Russian ones). Because China has lots of reserves and it also has not imposed sanctions on Russia.

Zoltan sees a multi-polar world emerging, where we're no longer dominated by US dollar trading. We'll use Renminbi when trading with China, Rubles when trading with Russia. Ie weaker dollar and stronger Renminbi. If China wants to do this (bring R subprime and non-R prime commodities back into line, it can: sell treasuries, which would push up the yield in the US and with that money buy Russian commodities. Use some of that money to lease US vessels (raising shipping costs and thereby inflation in the West) and use ships to store commodities if it runs out of storage space in China. Another way China could do this thing is if the Chinese government prints renminbi and use that to buy commodities from Russia. This would also push up US yields (and therefore inflation because its still a supply squeeze) because they wouldn't have to store any dollars in US treasuries, because a big buyer of US treasuries would suddenly disappear.

If this happened, there would be not just the US dollar "eurodollar" (nothing to do with Euros) market but also a renminbi market. End of US dollar hegemony.

Either of these two options China has, Zoltan says, will cause higher inflation in the West, higher yet US treasury yields, and higher shipping costs (also inflationary). Another result is commoditiy volatility, rising up fast, crashing down (remember the London nickel exchange crash day written about on this blog?) Commodity traders could fail and become bankrupt. Central clearing counterparties could also fail, leading to government bailouts.

And, as Larry Fink has talked about, the end of globalization because of resource nationalism (as a defensive measure), stockpiling of commodities, and rethinking (localizing and multiplying) supply chains.





 
$828b in US taxes to be paid by Americans, plus $125b in crypto taxes, approximated - Tom Lee and Fundstrat

Fundstrat looked into years where markets were strong, and the weeks before filing (April 18 this year, not October) markets were weak.

A lot of assets are bad financial hedges, Lee said. Americans own $55t worth of bonds. There might be a panic out of bonds. Lee thinks into income generating real assets and TINA. So people will sell bonds to buy real assets but not a lot of stocks.

His base case is still that inflation cools.

Expectation to keep a level of diversity. At the start of last year they had a dozen black partners among their 400 partners globally, and 5 have left in the last year.

Questions about the pipeline (black execs to chose from).

A lot of these black execs who are leaving, they were hired in 2019 or 2020. That's leaving significantly faster than the average tenure of a Goldman partner.
NFLX down like 40% in a day after reporting losing 200k customers

It expects to lose 2m this year. It has like 220m though.

Reasons: saturation in US (has like 90% of that market), competition with other streaming services (like Disney which is what anyone with kids maybe pays for). Cutting off Russia cost around 700m subscribers. Musk said wokeness was making shows unwatchable.

Netflix is considering running ads (doesn't now) and not allowing password sharing.

"If you look at the last two years, we had extraordinary rebound off the lows. You go back even further, 3 years, 5, 10. You go all the way back 13 years to the global financial crisis, and the challenge is that all of that is really a sugar high. All of those gains are really devaluation of the currency." - Mark Yusko

He said that gold is money (the only thing that is). When you denominate in gold, we're flat since 1996. It's really currency devaluation. Excess liquidity by banks.
"When the dollar is stronger, things break in other parts of the world." - Alicia Levine

"I think we need to start thinking about what happens to the real economy as a result of the Fed actions and marching forward quickly, and what happens to financial assets. ... and I think it's quite plausible that things could break in the financial asset market globally. Think about what has happened to the Yen, the Yuan, the Euro and the Pound in the last 3 months. A very strong dollar does not bode well for the rest of the world. For multinationals and earnings.

"I think we're seeing the beginning of the dislocation from the Fed's policy."

(She doesn't see a recession in the US in the next year, but said that doesn't mean the economy's going to take it all that well.)
Asia markets continue down

Lockdowns and lockdown fears. More cases in Shanghai lockdown, now in it's fourth week. Beijing might be next. 


"The easiest of the hard things is crude oil." - Dan Yergin

Because you can get it from other places. The hardest thing is natural gas.



7 years growing. Despite pandemic, recession, whatever.

Over $2t in 2021 for the first time.

The biggest arms companies are all in the US except one in the UK.

 

CAR unanimously adopted Bitcoin as legal tender

The first African country to do so.

India will be selling wheat to Egypt, it looks like

... instead of Russia and Ukraine, which formerly accounted for 80% of Egypt's wheat imports. They have a shortage, and have been importing from France, Romania, USA, and others. Prices have risen from $380 to $500 per ton.

Egypt is the largest or second largest importer (12 of its 21m tonnes per year consumption) of wheat. India is one of the largest producers, and while it hasn't been big in exporting it, it seems India is willing to do so, although it seems unlikely India would be willing to produce and export THAT much. Right now India produces 110m tonnes and consumes 105m.

They're meeting this week in Dubai. One thing they're doing (some Egyptian experts) is some tests to see what the quality of Indian wheat is, and how adequate it is for the Egyptian market. They found it is good enough, but commercial discussions which will come later will decide how much and at what price.

Wheat is a strategic commodity, and every country has its own standards for wheat. Because it is strategic, Egypt is really considering whether to add India to its list of strategic importers of the food.

Because Egypt is an important of wheat, so it can affect international prices of wheat. Not only a price taker but a price setter. That gives them the ability to have communications with several countries that export wheat, and to have some input on that trade of wheat on an international level. Exporters must respond differently when a big importer such as Egypt enters the market, compared with a smaller importer. (Big exporters also are price setters.)

 
Mexico nationalized lithium

"Elon Musk's worst nightmare."

Does Twitter becoming private make it more competitive versus FB, Snap, etc?

Mark Mahaney of Evercore: "I think Musk is doing something that a lot of investors should do which is that there's a lot of really good tech assets out there that are at very low prices. Yes, Elon Musk offered a 50% premium but it was on a stock that was off 50% since it's highs."

About CEOs of big tech companies, "They're successful because they've operated well near-term and they've had great long-term vision. If you've got great long-term vision there's no way you're reacting to a bear market. We're gonna have them every 5 years." - Mark Mahaney

"Don't let the markets determine what your corporate strategy is. Maybe your financial strategy but not your corporate strategy."

Maheney called Musk's purchase timing genius, "Step in with a big premium offer when the stock had been dramatically traded off as part of a bear market in tech stocks."
"Roughly 1/3 of inflation is sheltered. Home ownership or renting, or hotels and motels" - Rob Arnott

Hotels and Motels up over 20% last year. Home ownership (which is much bigger) is not counted in CPI as the value of a home) up 32% in the last 2 years. What the BLS does is ask What would the home rent for? They don't know, they just ask the home owners what they think it would rent for.

We're going to see an illusion that inflation is subsiding in the coming months because those months are replacing big inflation months from 1 year ago, followed by an illusion inflation is breaking out in the summer months because those months will replace low-inflation months.
 
Tech stocks are not on discount, they are the bursting of a tech bubble, says Rob Arnott

Like 2000.
 
"We're in the only business in the global macro economy where customers hate bargains." - Rob Arnott on value stocks versus tech growth stocks

20% up and everyone wants to buy, 20% down and everything avoids it, saying There must be something wrong with it.
 
Does this mean the market is one of the easiest things to manipulate?
Is single family home rentals 'the future'?
"Apple is important to everything and everyone" - Josh Brown

Not just the S&P and people who love tech, but also Berkshire. "Berkshire probably technically can't withstand Apple breaking down either."

"The NASDAQ, not for most stocks but for the FANGS, Feb 24, the day Putin invaded. - Josh Brown

The invasion drove up inflation for a lot of stuff, which put a top in for growth stocks.

Averaging 1 massive crypto hack per week

$Hundreds of millions often.

Phoenix, AZ hottest property market for 33 months straight now


Housing prices were up in March but sales down 8%. Consumer sentiment is lowering.

The vlogger here, "These numbers, you don't really need to study them to know how bad these are, because lets face it, you see it when you go to the grocery store, when you purchase things, when you buy gas, you know exactly how you're getting mistreated as a far as inflation is concerned. That's happening to all of us right now."
"I don't know if we have a student loan problem, because it's only a problem if you have a debt that you can't pay." - I Allegdedly (vlogger)
"If you have a $3m home that drops to $2.5, that person's gonna be OK. It's the person who bought the average $375k house that drops to $180k that can't refinance it, can't resell it, then can't afford a payment, and may lose his job." - I Allegedly (vlogger)

Different from 2008 because they got rid of the liar loans and you really had to qualify for loans after that, but they're back now. The underwriting was much more difficult after 2008 (have to have income and a real downpayment). Back to unrealistic times right now.

US GDP dropped 1.4%, in a surprise, first drop since 2020

Pricing index up 8%. Highest since 1981.
 
US importing way more than exporting. Inventory. Some downturns due to interest rates. Lots of distortions in metrics.
Amazon $4b loss, quarterly report

Stock down 10%.

Amazon is particularly susceptible to 2 things that are wide trends: consumer spending and supply chains.

Costs. 1.3m workers. All those expenses going up.

Inflation since 1 year ago in US, by CNBC



Indonesia banned export of palm oil

... because of local shortage. Prices for it are up 40%, and people protested.

Indonesia does 1/3 of global vegetable oil exports. 30m tonnes exported by them. India imports half its vegetable oil from Indonesia, 13m tonnes (60% of that is palm oil, 25% soybean oil, 12% sunflower seed oil). (Malaysia does 32% of India's imports to Indonesia's 55%.) There will now be much more demand than supply. 20% rise in priced expected in India.

Poorer countries depend more on cheaper cooking oils like palm oil.

Some San Diego residents moved to Mexico to save money

Brokers for this trade usually see investors and retirees buying in Mexico, but now it's young workers too. Some people also work remotely and can live on the waterfront for $200k - $700k (versus in the millions for SD) (or was he saying $200 - 700 per month rent?).

Mortgage refinancing demand dropped 70% from a year ago
May 2022
"We still haven't felt that 'get me out at any price' type of trading, and while we are likely getting closer to a tradeable low, we don't think we are quite there yet... we continue to look for a sub-4k SPX, with colume based support coming in 3900-39050." - Doc on CNBC


Questions about job seeking companies continues

Job vacancy NUMBERS have like doubled. A huge spike in the graph.

But people applying for jobs aren't getting even interviews.

Some say it has to do with companies and PPP loans:

"I’ve applied for 350 jobs as a graduating senior with a BS in economics and certifications in project management and barely have gotten any interviews. I’ve gotten 5 different scam posts though!

"This is absolutely BS and is purely being used as justification for bailouts. The government is funding businesses to lie about their job numbers."

Someone else:

"IIRC some college professors had to send out upwards of 1000 applications to get interviews.

"I imagine the problem now is a lot similar to dating websites; where everyone is looking for the best of the best, without realizing that those top candidates or jobs are either half scams or interviewing what they think will be a great person, only to wind up ghosted and the position left open because that top person they turned everyone else down for found something better.

"Rather than picking good or even GREAT candidates, they just siphon out a ton of people on the assumption that the sheer volume of resumes they have means the cream of the crop will TOTALLY settle for them and not wind up somewhere else by the time they've sorted all the resumes and sent out responses to those top candidates."
Ruble collapsed by 60% last March when they invaded Ukraine, but is now the strongest performer of 2022 (a 2-year high of 64R/1USD)

Spending of reserves, being an exporter of petrol, having gas buyers buy in Rubles, doubling interest rates and limiting capital flows, and talking about backing the Ruble with gold and other commodities are factors contributing to its rising valuation.

Russia has energy, so that's not cramping their style like in some oil importing countries (price has been rising over the past year significantly). Russian consumer appears still strong.

However, the future. The economy (GDP) is guessed it will shrink 10% in an upcoming recession. Financial sanctions take months or years to take effect, they're not immediate.

The other currencies that have appreciated against the USD this year are the Brazilian Rial and (a lot) and the Mexican Peso (a little bit). All other currencies have depreciated against the USD this year, the most depreciation seen by Egypt's Pound, Argentine's Peso, Japanese Yen, Turkish Lire, and some other Eastern European money.



Saudi Aramco became biggest company in the world
China and decoupling from 'factory China'

Said that China is indispensable to global supply.

China makes way more stem graduates (now needed by others). So many production facilities (Japan also has quite a lot). Apple's supply chain. China wants foreign firms there (like Apple). Provinces compete for this business.

Per capita disposable income is way up steadily in the last 10 or 15 years.

"China plus one" strategy. Vietnam, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia. But no country can do what China does.



US in situation for older adults where their ability to retire is based on how they invested money since they were 20

Versus social security in other countries.
What affects stocks


Josh Brown said it missed the most important thing: industry. The best company in the worst industry isn't going to work.

Corporations in US have low debt, high in cash



 
The stock market is $35t (so companies could buy back like a 5th of their stock).
US markets drop between 3 and 5 % for the 3 markets

So-called 'safe haven' stocks are not immune. Consumer staples like Walmart and Target are seeing slightly higher revenues (nominally, not factoring inflation) but much higher costs (labor, transport, supply chains), and they are not able to pass these costs on to the consumer any more.

So all stocks went down today almost. Every sector.

Customers are buying groceries but aren't buying hard goods where stores like Walmart have a slightly higher margin.

Yes, wages are up, but not as much as inflation. The highest cost increases are food and energy, and that's funneling away spending that would otherwise go to more profitable areas of selling.

But the US economy NEEDS lower demand in order to trend prices lower.
Dividends (secure-ish ones) might be the investment play of this year or the next couple years

Can't rely on valuation expansion anymore. So it's just dividends and earnings. And from companies with good balance sheets to ensure the ability to do so for a while.

Defaults on cars in US

First time it's been in the news I've seen. Sub-prime car loans.

Last couple years, car prices and used car prices went up, but there was tons of money from the Fed, so people kept buying things. Loans went up. A lot of borrowers don't have much for a downpayment, or have negative equity. But the car value of course depreciates, so if they were to sell a year or two later they wouldn't be able to pay off that loan.
 
Those loans are owned lots by hedge funds pursuing higher return rates. You don't see a lot of banks jumping into that.
The very traits that would have allowed you to survive the crash in 2020 are the traits that would have killed you in the most recent regime change (out of tech etc into commodities and energy) - The Compound guys

Nobody's in a rush now. It's not like 2020 and 2021 where everything went up every day (and had like 5% drops sometimes) and you couldn't even think straight, just saying 'I can't believe I'm not in this'.
Crypto, and some stocks, within their niche

So if you have the best crypto (or company), but there's a ton of crap cryptos and they're all going down, some to zero, your good one will go down too as a part of that. Part is news, part sentiment, part that the people who bought those bad ones also bought the good one and they sell them at the same time, bringing prices lower.
 
Gas at $5 is not a problem, but gas at next month $5.50 then $6 etc. is a problem, because people say This is never going to stop and we have to cut spending

So tightening quickly has another thing in its favor.

Huge money debt and liquidity injected, internal conflict in US (populism), rising of new great powers - the three things right now, according to Ray Dalio

Where are we in the monetary policy?

One man's debts are another man's financial assets. So they won't be able to raise interest rates to a high enough level to provide a real return to investors. 3% or 4% won't be enough to compensate for the inflation rate.

Paradigm shift. People believed everything that happened in the past 10 years, and then they get a surprise, and then they start to change.

Do I think cash is a safe asset, or bonds are a safe asset? Am I getting a real return? There's gonna be a supply-demand balance. The Fed, individuals, foreigners, and the US gov (to fund its deficit) are all selling/going to sell. Going to produce a squeeze because so much money was put out.

What's going to get you a real return? Real assets. Like the 70s.

Everybody's wrong. Everybody wants everything to go up. They keep giving you money. They want you to buy everything. They hype it. The world is holding all these financial assets. You're going to have an environment of negative real returns.
New home sales fell 17% in US

(notes:)

New to us: a situation of high nominal growth. Nominal growth = real growth + inflation. Stagflation = the high nominal growth is absorbed by higher prices but output (production) doesn't keep up (low real growth).

Labor productivity has been positive so far (output rose), but nominal spending was far greater.

A reduction in nominal spending is the only viable solution, because it looks like productivity can't be raised much. Economies are approaching capacity constraints. Note: a simple raise in rates isn't necessarily 'tightening' unless it is relative to what is discounted and relative to economic conditions. Note: short-term interest rates.

Inflation is increasingly entrenched and supplies and inventories are low.

Stocks: Companies that are most liquidity-sensitive and longer-duration cash flow, have seen the biggest value effect.

War in Ukraine: big effect on commodities (R a supplier). Normal short-term flight to quality (weeks or a month) and afterwards unfolding macro pressures typically dominate.

Expect reinforced capex cycle (surge in demand). Lingering bottlenecks. Capexs to boost efficiency. Particularly industrials and materials (companies reshoring to US from Asia due to supplychain disruptions). Automation. Software and info processing equipment over past couple years.

Governments' choice: tighten to control inflation and face a potential economic downturn, or don't tighten and allow inflation.

Household balance sheets stronger (than 2018). Lots of cash in bank, appreciated home values and stocks. Poor people wealthier than past 60  years.

Banks are very liquid. Money printing found its home there. Reallocating into loans.

Usually stocks and bonds don't go down together forever, because it's a self-correcting mechanism - Chris Harvey

Stocks go down, you start to create more value. Bonds go down, and you have a discounting mechanism makes your terminal value higher and all of a sudden we find a bottom.


Coming into 2022 versus now, by WFC strategist

We thought you needed multiple compression. You got that. We thought interest rates and especially real rates needed to normalize. You got that. We thought that the Fed had to get motion, whether it's related to the balance sheet or to raising rates. That's been happening. Now we have a 15 or 20% pullback depending on where you look in the market.

Two last things we needed to see: We needed to see rates come down, and we needed to see some softening of the Fed rhetoric, which is what we seem to be seeing in the short term.

We're not seeing indiscriminate selling as in the last few weeks.

This is where the market is the economy - Batnick

"... because they're using their stock as currency to pay employees."

"... in specific parts of the economy." - Josh Brown. In tech, not the housing market in Okl. Will be felt in housing, spending, and tax receipts in Cali.

Snapchat's stock options paid to employees are now 40% underwater.

Stock is down 75% from highs, down like 40% from IPO.

The Chinese likened the tax cuts to 'fertilizer' applied directly to the 'roots of the economy.'

The numbers are added to tax cuts already implemented this year.

#China
"I think we've seen enough wealth destruction that we are finally seeing demand destruction all over the economy, and the market people are picking up on that." - Josh Brown

US now going to have to 'decide between two policy mistakes' - El-Erian

The US dollar is just too strong for the rest of the world.

The cost of living crisis in the West is the risk of famine in commodity-producing countries. How much does a country like Egypt subsidize (probably most) and how much pass on to the consumer?

UK imposed a Windfall Tax (to protect most vulnerable people in economy).
70% of US consumers 'would rather wait for a new product than pay for it right now' - Kearney Consumer Inst.

Beauty is doing well, as part of the things people haven't been able to buy much recently. Fancy dresses and suits at Macey's. Wardrobe refresh. Weddings.

Down: streaming, fitness bikes, plant-based meat.

Now consumers want to get out of the house. 8% bump expected in miles traveled this Memorial Day weekend.


Some say supply chain bottleneck loosening up

... part from perhaps less demand, perhaps from actual loosening.

JPM reported LA ports are looser than previous months.

BOA said on trucking that capacity is higher than previous months.

Retailers are talking about double digit inventory gains, so some think they might now order less or not the same stuff. We might see store shelves full again and things going to the clearing isle.

Core PCE price index has been sideways for 4 months (and down YoY).

People looking at inventory to sales ratio. How quickly can retailers turn over what they have.




7 weeks straight of the week closing lower for markets, and then this week it was up a bit

June 2022
People, including Boockvar, think inflation has probably topped out (although how much it will come down is another question)

We're in an information gap right now. Earnings were flat. We don't have a Fed meeting for a couple weeks but we already know what they're going to do. Next catalyst is in July when we review Q2 results.

Boockvar wrote Bill Dudley is kind of the truth serum man of the Fed.

Bitcoin is fluctuating a few thousand above and below $30k
US mortgage demands is at a 22-year low
For months now, everyday economy news has several experts saying recession is coming and there's no soft landing, and others saying recession is unlikely
QE and low interest rates have resulted in record debt levels for a lot of countries, where consumers, businesses and governments took advantage ... and may have become dependent on cheap debt. As rates rise, these parties will see hightened costs for their large debt loads.
Docusign beat on revenues and missed on EPS

Something that has worked over the past years but now doesn't seem to be enough, some say, and that investors now want to see actual profits.
Bolivia inflation 1% for past year versus Latin America average of 10%

The Boliviano is not fixed in exchange to the USD. Their exchange was established over 10 years ago when the authorities there injected dollars into the countries reserves. The money came from great wealth that came from nationalizing petroleum production (Bolivia still has a state monopoly in petrol and distributes it to the country, and this has totally absorbed the impact of changes in gas price). It reduced costs of imported products. Bolivia ALSO produces most of the products Bolivians consume.

Bolivia also has certificates of exportation granted by government. When that product is not available in proper supply for the internal market at a price the government considers appropriate, the government can deny a certificate for exportation.

For this low inflation, Bolivia is considered by some to have a lot of debt.

Is it a disincentive to production in Bolivia? Does the State spend more than it brings in? Will the country just consume its reserves?

The government isn't going to change policy. It says that would be to translate the burden of inflation onto the majority of the population.

Bolivia is said to be the only Latin American country that is controlling inflation.

Kawasaki factory in Nebraska offering 9-2 shift at $19/hour

Labor market very tight. Everyone is hiring.

The shift is based around school hours, to try to get people who were not doing manufacturing before (mothers).
Oil market, where relationships matter

OPEC, Russia, Ukraine, Venezuela, Europe, Iran.

$180 barrel is where demand would start to stop, said Mark Rothman, so we're nowhere near that


Worry about reduced economic productivity and activity, not about inflation, it's been said
Tasty burger restaurants in place of McDonald's in Russia

800 outlets.

"Russians can do fast food just as well." - Some guy


Prices are being talked about nonstop

When someone tells you the price, you say, "What?"

Americans say.
 
Wages up but people aren't happy because they can't buy stuff affordably.
Father's Day is second busiest t-shirt printing time after Christmas for Amazon
 

Pakistan minister asks people to cut Chai tea drinking by a few cups per day

The government doesn't really have money to import more tea on loan.

They imported $640m worth of tea in 2020, the biggest importer in the world.

Forex reserves went from $16b to $10b in the last couple months.

Some say it seems unlikely the plea will have any effect, since tea drinking is done at home and isn't easy to monitor. 220m people in the country. The leaders of the country are not expected to be cutting down themselves, some say.

Pakistan is having long power cuts (up to 16 hours) in the energy shortage. All types of energy. 45 degree C temperatures these days.

Beijing operates lots of power plants in Pakistan. Right now those plants are turned off because Pakistan hasn't paid the Chinese companies. The IMF asked but China refused to renegotiate the agreements.

Pakistan had made LNG deals with Italy and Qatar, but those countries reportedly are selling their LNG to more lucrative markets (Europe) instead. The suppliers have to pay penalties (30% reportedly) but still they make profits by not delivering to Pakistan. Pakistan has to buy LNG at spot prices from the market.

They could try to get an IMF bailout but to get one they would have to remove all fuel subsidies. So the government doesn't have many options, and is asking people to not consume energy.


Vacation travel becoming 'less discretionary' according to Marriott CEO

"More people are going to take vacations regardless of what happens to the economy."
For the first time in months, bearish-take market experts just starting to be less bearish

Just days ago everyone saying everything was so negative.

In part because Fed for years, even through the Great Recession, was increasing money supply. Steadily. That saw a big jump of like 40% more in 2020 and then continued. But now the Fed is finally going the other way, so there will be less liquidity.

Also, a lot of money has been lost in the stock market, which belonged to that excess that was printed.

Larry Summers called for a 5% jobless rate over 5 years to ease inflation. Right now it's 3.6%. So a loss of 2.2m jobs, then going through that for 5 years.


Core inflation (CPI, PPI, PCE) has rolled over YoY for last 2 months running - Jim Paulsen

The first time they've all rolled over at the same time since this began. The commodity thrust used to be all commodity markets, and now it's just energy, and now that's waning (natgas and crude both down). Wage inflation has clearly slowed.

He still thinks we'll be more concerned about recession, but just less about inflation.


What does a communicative Fed and not wanting to surprise anybody do except raise the VIX? - Jim Paulsen

He comes from the 70s where the idea was the opposite.

Every meeting the VIX goes up and then when the meeting's over it does a little better.
Is it helpful in helping investors decide what's going to happen?

Paulsen said it might be better watching the Fed's boss, ie What's going on in the economy. And then the next boss is the bond market. They're both saying the Fed better not overdo the tightening.
 
Relatedly, Tony Pasquariello said. "The moment the Fed says 'We're done,' or 'What's priced into the script is as far as we'll go,' the market's going to rally back, and will ease financial conditions in so doing. And that's the kind of cat and mouse game between the Fed and financial markets."
Three straight days of green for markets

It's at about 15ish times forward earnings, not historically cheap, but considering the concentration in bigcap tech stocks, equal weighted it's more like 13x. "Around fair value."
 
Small cap 600 under 11x.

No one really saying that means the value is good.

People looking toward earnings forecasts / revisions for info.
Housing


Doesn't this chart mean, though, 'everywhere'?


USA at the beginning or at the cusp of a recession, said Bookvar

What's better? A fast recession and fast recovery, or slow?

He thinks the Fed will tolerate a 3 or 4% inflation rather than try to push it down to 2%, leaning more toward helping the economy rather than control inflation. The labor force is keeping inflation elevated.

Everyone still has money in the bank, so inflation will stay.



In the USA, 30 companies control 95% of the $31b chicken industry

Processing 1.5m birds per week.

The Shocking Ways Lobbyists Eliminate Competition in the Farming Industry - YouTube 

The biggest increase in military spending since the 90s. 40% for air force 20% on the Navy. 17% for ground forces. 35% to refill ammunition depos and upgrade cyberwarfare and kit.

They want 35 Lockheed-Martin F-35s, 60 Boeing Chinook helicopters, and 15 Eurofighter typhoon jets. They'll also spend on R&D, combat cloud, combat air systems (6th gen fighter jet), submarine tech, frigates, artillery, tanks. In cooperation with other European countries and the US.

They don't currently have a single combat-ready division, reportedly. They plan to have a combat ready division in 2025.

What was their use to NATO? "On paper" they have 350 Pumas (150 can be used), 51 Tiger helicopters (9 ready). They use analog (not encrypted) radios.

30% of their navy is seaworthy. Their army has 200k soldiers, down from 1990's 500k.

They're planning to up their spending to 2% of GDP on defense.

But they have to get approval to pass this. Germany has a lot of pacifism, but it's currently anyway getting a lot of support.

An interesting thing in Germany is when there's bidding for a defense contract, the loser can challenge the decision, which can stall things for years. German contractors do sue each other sometimes, delaying things for years also.

  
About 100 tech companies are downsizing right now

Possible end to employment-related inflation.

UK is having a big rail strike

Significant percentage of rail network closed. I think the demand is higher pay.

Oil prices down 8 straight days

The market has priced in a recession probably, but not a consumer credit hit, probably, which might come after a recession
Consumer confidence is lower now than after 9.11, and after the 2008 financial crisis, said Rick Newman
Wall Street was looking for basically anyone who was willing to come, or even log in for them, hiring, but now they're looking to cut back

They hired thousands wach. JPM and Goldman hired like around 20% more. Wall Street is a boom and bust thing. When the deals are coming you have to have people.

YoY:

IPSs down 90%
High-Yield debt offerings down 75%
M&A down 30%
"They gotta stop manipulating long rates. They have to let the free market do that." - Dan Morehead

He also said that while 30% of Americans are trying to buy a home, 20% of all homes sold last year were sold to institutional speculators with money borrowed from the Fed.


What's good for Robin Hood is the thing that's worst for it's users. Josh Brown's point

Anyone who uses the app a ton is going to lose money, which is bad for them. But this is what Robinhood needs to have profits or to grow
July 2022
Semi conductors versus longterm bonds being analyzed by CNBC

Semis down versus longterm bonds up.

Talking about going back to 2020 levels as a baseline. That's because then we were not in a rising rate environment, we had a huge tailwind to the overall market, a huge pull forward for semiconductors, hardware, everything across the board, but now we're in a rising rate environment, and everything is calculated on discounted cashflow. That's why tech stocks will run (upwards in value) when rates are low and not when we're in a rising rate environment.

2020 might not even be the right thing to look at, because then there was no inflation, and rates were at zero. So equities maybe should be valued even worse than that.

Crypto lost $1t over the past few months, and people say a big part is because they can't attract new buyers

The space operates like a ponzi scheme, where it takes new money to pay out old money. Crypto still has no inherent value (use). It's still speculation rather than utility.

"It's really difficult to engage with [global] partners" - Kyle Bass (a monitorist at heart)

... "like China, like Russia, like Iran, like North Korea. China mostly. It doesn't share the same value system. They don't share the same legal system. We have a rule of law, they rule by law. And when it comes into times when there's global conflict or friction you see that globalization can lead you down a path that puts you in a very difficult position from a national security perspective."

"It was probably a real bad idea to let 95% of the pharmaceutical ingredients for our antibiotics to be made in China. And have the global chip shortage around the world that really emanated from Taiwan, which makes 40% of the chips we need for just about everything."

Various things being outsourced has to be thought of in terms of risk assessment, he said. 3-5 years away still from being self-sufficient on the chip side. Antibiotics and supply chains aren't rocket science, they just need to be reshored. While we watch the friction increase almost daily between the US and China. Xi, the most leverage China has is now, and every day that goes by they have less leverage, so things might happen sooner than later. China's media is really pushing the Taiwan issue.

With Ukraine. For a long time things boiled, and one day war happened. Russia's control over Europe also could be said to be decreasing with time, as their supplier of energy.

Because the White House changes every 4 or 8 years, the US needs a team that transcends administrations and needs a better grand strategy, he said.

Example: US has tariffs on China for steel and aluminum

Chinese state actors were basically giving free electricity to aluminum smelters in China to undercut price in America, that took US's capicity utilization of US's aluminum smelters from high 80s to 70 in one year. And when you drop below 80% capacity utilization you end up losing money as an industry. China was acting in an uneconomic fashion to try to put the US's industry out of business so the US would have a further reliance on China's ability to produce aluminum (strategic values for military and industry).

So Yellen saying "You could save 8 basis points of inflation if you took those tariffs off" is ignorant of national security. He mentioned that if wall street was making decisions we'd all be speaking Chinese immediately, because they make short term decisions for specific profits, and politicians are required to think long term and consider national security.

Kyle Bass' take

With input costs (energy, labor, raw materials in commodities) is causing many businesses to consider shutting down.
The Fed has just started to take liquidity out. It's going to take $100b out every month for 10 months maybe. He said wait to invest until the Fed starts to use the word 'pause'. He thinks a lot of the Fed's job is already done. Food and other costs will continue up unless there's a serious recession, but he thinks there'll be a mild one. Markets lower going into November, he said. - Kyle Bass
When you print 40% more M2 (money in circulation), you're gonna get about 40% inflation (some things will cost more or less). Coupled with really poorly thought-through energy transition policy. - Kyle Bass
We need more capex spending, more pipelines built and more drilling, in order to transition properly to clean energy. The Fed can't change a supply problem (with hydrocarbons) no matter how it acts. It turns into much higher labor costs, energy costs, food.

The US is begging SA to pump more while trying to remove the Iranian National Guard as terrorists, as well as the Houthi rebels.

US is reducing restrictions on Venezuela (a 'known terrorist and funder of terrorism') at the same time as killing the Keystone Pipeline which would carry crude from the US's ally, partner and neighbor Canada to US refineries that can refine heavy crude.

US politicians (Biden included, markedly) are vilifying Big Oil, threatening them (saying they would turn them off).

Adding windfall taxes and things to energy is just saying we want prices a lot higher, Bass said, instead of getting behind them, as the highest energy producer in the world (way ahead of the second, Russia).

In 7 years, the first nuclear energy will open in Wyoming.

He thinks it's the golden age for private capitol investing in hydrocarbons for the next 10 or 15 years. Demand is inelastic and growing, and there's no alternative energy that could get there in time. There aren't enough minerals to put into the wind turbines and things.

Over the past week, although markets had like their first good week a week before, many commentators and analysts are saying very negative things
Survivorship bias skews art world investment value

Stuff that goes down, people don't even want to sell it, so it doesn't get factored into the index. If values go up, people do sell. So it seems like prices just go up in the art world of investment.
Gravitas: Global stocks lost $13 trillion in first half of 2022 - YouTube 
"Reestablishing the gold standard, in Rubles, funded by China"

"A lot of the money in oil and gas stocks is sort of hot money and is New Money, and they're not familiar with the volatility we've experienced over the past number of years. The more volatility and the more pull backs, the harder it is for the sector to deploy capital, and the harder it is to attract capital the higher the oil price needs to be and the higher the return on that investment needs to be to get that capital deployed" - Josh Young


Overlevered.

Reputational effects.

Non-performing auto loans

Repos. Although you won't lose your house right away if you miss a payment, if you don't make a payment for your car they'll repossess it.

Loan to value 140%. (What you could get for the car if you sold it compared to what you paid for it).

Anecdotal is that most of the repos are from loans for 2020 and 2021. Lots of people making $2500 with car payments of $1000 (at that income level most financial advisers recommend $500).

Prime repos (high credit scores) usually is 2% and is now 4%.

Sub-prime repos (towing a car out of a driveway) have doubled to 11%.
"Maybe a mild recession is not the worst thing for some of these companies because it gives you pretext to fire some low performers." - paraphrased Josh Brown


Zimbabwe to introduce gold coins as local currency
"There is no longer a secular growth story that works without a cyclical for the global advertising business." - Josh Brown

Apple and Google down since Snap's weak quarterly report. They're so big now that anything in the overall economy affects them, is the idea. They're now seen more as a proxy for the overall macro, is the idea.


August 2022
"The relationships between all of the tools that we use to regulate the economy (inflation measures, growth, interest rates) and the economy might not apply anymore." - Peter Zeihan (but this echoes in vein things I've heard from other over the past year or two

"For the past 500 years it's been all about figuring out how to maximize your share of a pie that is steadily growing. ... As long as there is more technology and more people growth is easy, and regulating growth in such a situation is something that we have a lot of experience in, but that's not the case anymore."

Biden signed a 'China competition bill' Chips Act, to 'boost US chipmakers'

Haven't looked yet what else is in this bill.


$92b market for inexpensive ($150 usd) cell phones.

Carried Interest loophole, legislation closes it (we'll see)

In the top tax bracket, instead of paying 43% they're paying 23%, as if income was investment income, some.

Money changing hands for legislation, seen in action, according to Josh Brown.

Sinema of Arizona.
AI, internet-based business models, Net Zero, emerging market consumer, and top brands (last one a sort of moat play)

Scott Chronert's 'Thematic Thirty' stocks as, he says, we shift out of markets being driven by inflation, recession, and Fed concerns, and into more stock (pick) -based investing.

More of a longer-term structural growth bias, which is their means of negotiating this onoging Fed-on-Fed-off economic-recession-or-not situation. A path to look across an economic valley to the other side.

Because the market almost at their target for S&P, investing needs to shift away from an index focus around traditional macro variables to a much more bottom-up focus.

The first half of the year, the major multiple compression on the initial inflection and rates was on the growth side of the market, 'which is gonna align with a lot of the themes' he's talking about.

The rate effect of multiples has been mostly priced in. June low.

They follow 99 themes. But there are a lot of companies in the S&P that don't follow this thematic approach.

Americans are using credit card points to but food now (in past 2 years they would save them and use them for something bit like a dish washer). Credit card spending overall has now eclipsed pre-pandemic. Consumers have not had to use credit for a couple years, but now they are ok because they have credit.

Gas prices have dropped a lot, and so have borrowing rates. Re-fis are back.
iPhone 14 to be manufactured in India (as well as China): Reports | Latest World News | WION - YouTube
Growth will be difficult for China, says Yale's Stephen Roach - YouTube
The tightness of the labor is more than the Fed expected, so it will have to generate a slowdown long enough to push the unemployment rate up well above 4% - William Dudley

The current wage trend is 4 or 5%, which is not consistent with 2% inflation, because inflation is high and labor market is tight. Ratio of unfilled jobs to workers is 1.8 to 1.

The Fed says it wants 2% inflation, but he thinks they actually want 3%.
Three stages of a bear market - Bookvar

1. Valuation adjustment (we've seen this).

2. Economic impact and earnings impact of a slowdown (we're beginning the first phase of this), particularly profit margins.

3. Everyone throws in the towel.

He expects 50 basis points and then 25s.

Lots of inventory overhang right now

Apparel, barbecues, etc.
Crowding out effect - Scott Mushkin

LA food prices up 25% in past 18 months.

Not a lot of money left over.

Some people 'being impoverished.'
 
What will the holiday look like?
Shipping costs may be peaking (but costs coming down really a 2023 event)

Labor costs still up.
US housing starts fell 10% in July
Peak leverage in labor market, voiced

5% down to 10m open jobs in June.
Pulling back as they have less success in hiring, and they're reassessing how they operate their business. But still frothy labor market.
 
The employers doing well are recruiting talent rather than posting job openings.
"Last 9 months investors have been convinced inflation will be with us for years, and it's very sticky, but it's proven to be a lot less sticky, and maybe even more sensitive to gasoline falling, because of how gasoline moves through the services CPI.

"And if that's correct, we are tracking more towards a soft landing ... and that would mean that markets have already discounted much of the Fed tightening."

Tom Lee
The 10-year is at 2.8. "That's hardly where it was in the 80s. The 10-year should properly reflect inflation expectations and at 2.8 it's really a market that thinks inflation gets back towards 2% after a couple years." - Tom Lee

"And then people talk about the inverted yield curve between 10-year and 2-year. But what they have to keep in mind is that if inflation for the next few years is at 4, the 2-year HAS to be higher than the 10. So you're gonna get a forced inversion just because the contours of inflation and it doesn't mean that the curve on a real basis inverted. So I think the bond market is telling us a better story than the equity investors wanna believe."


Sept 6 will be the day many workers are expected back at the office (or not)

Those who may not be expected back: Those with children or family needs as reasons to be at home, coders and journalists and workers who do better in a quiet environment, and people who were hired remotely and don't live in the same place as the business and never did.

"They can't take your desk away from you if you're sitting at it," was an expression in the 80s when people didn't want to lose their jobs. Workers have had a lot of power recently in the relationship, but that may shift now (many are talking about it doing so).

Some Millenials and GenZers, who have lived their lives online and virtually (and therefore are considered best suited to not want to go to the office) are saying they want to go to the office to show their employers what they can do. Those who were hired remotely have never had the opportunity to meet their managers and coworkers physically. "When is someone gonna tag me so I can actually fight for the team?"

Some say to move up you need to be there in person. Who promotes someone they've never met? Who puts someone in charge who's never interacted with people? How do you share experience with upcoming members? Why should you offer fulltime work to someone who's not there physically, instead of just contract or part time?
Over 3 million barrels of oil will be lost by November, says Husseini Energy's Sadad Al Husseini - YouTube
All midterm years result in higher market between October's election day and June - Joe Teranova
Russian 'Stars Coffee' to replace Starbucks

With a brand design basically a Starbucks ripoff.

Why would they not take this opportunity to create a global brand competitor?
Recession signs?

'Lost my job, can't pay rent' Google search term up 500% (in how much time?

MLB down compared with 2019 (but was going down before the pandemic). How much is a postpandemic fear of crowds?

Generic instead of brands up like 20 or 30% maybe.

Mens' underwear sales (no data yet, just a sign they're watching).
September 2022
"There's no way globalization breaks for the Chinese in a positive way." - Zeihan
Chequeing deposits 4x pre-pandemic. Lots of surface liquidity. But demand is struggling (housing, everyone is just buying groceries not electronics or clothes) - Paul Christopher
Incentivized to invest in automation, with labor rates rising
During uncertain and changing times, differentiation stands out more - Bill Ready
 
Pinterest has actual people curating.
The US is big enough that it will leverage the rest of the world down - Rick Santelli

Eurozone CPI inflation up 9%. Pound at lowest level since 1985. 

Developing global recession. For US, maybe a rolling recession (different parts get recession at  different times).
Fed will be done with hiking early next year - Tom Lee

Because inflation has peaked, and will go from 8% today to 4% early next year to 2.5% later next year, according to the bond market, Lee said.

That's not changed by the discouragingly high CPI report we just saw. Maybe the level of the hikes will change but not the timeline.

"When we see markets convinced (2 decade high) inflation is broken, PE is going to go up dramatically." (Maybe this will be seen even in the October CPI).

Recency bias accounts for the prevailing bearishness.

With Fedex, taking down expectations might be true for some smaller beta, but PE is going to change dramatically when inflation risk is taken out of equity risk premium, Lee said.
Lots of active managers are telling their clients 'Just buy and hold, don't look at your statements in the short term. You have to invest long term. And investing when the market is low is better than when it is high when you're doing long-term investing.' Their sentiment, however, is largely that the market will continue to bear in the nearterm (couple months, midterms, etc).
Russian economy holding up versus sanctions et al better than many expected

Although doing worse than Europeans who are suffering from the sanctions imposed on Russia as well.

R. central bank moved quickly to impose capital controls and sharply hike interest rates (20%, incentivizing Russians to keep their money in Russian banks) partially stabilized the ruble. Higher oil prices offset the Russia discount. Rising sales of energy to China, India and Turkey offset decline in sales to Europe. (Oil revenues estimated down 20%). The central bank forced companies to convert 80% of the money they earn overseas into rubles. Demand for R. currency helps prop it up. R citizens were prevented from converting more than $10k into other currencies.

= high interest rate, forced buying of the ruble, and currency near impossible to sell.

= we don't know the true exchange rate. Ruble can only really be BOUGHT in significant quantity.

= ruble appears high in value, but few would buy it, some say, unless they were forced to.
EU has stocked up their energy reserves to 82%, already above their target of 80% for October

Confidence in EU growing they can go through winter without severe economic problems or rationing.

Russia selling its energy to China and India, but at a greater-than-ever discount. R getting a weaker trade position due to lack of potential trading partners.

Shopping Centers

After all the (dubious, a few would say) talk that after the pandemic shopping was going to be completely changed (paradigm) and no one would go to stores anymore, some have noted that it was that very pandemic that showed that retail shops had their place.

Unable to buy needed items online due to shortages, people went to local stores, particularly shopping centers. Also because they felt they needed to get out of the house. Curbside pickup developed, so going into stores was not necessary. Stores looked again at investing in their trucking. Companies have focused on eCom for 15 years and are now looking again at their store fleets. (Pricing power to landlords, resulting in higher earnings and dividends for them.) Stores realized the bulk of their sales still come from traditional shopping centers or malls.

Also, many people moved out of the city. A trend towards living in homes. In those areas, the main shopping destination is large shopping centers, malls. Going to shopping centers was like the only 'acceptable' place to go during lockdown.

The US is over-retailed. The big shopping centers consolidate their power, while some malls do flag.

People have been saying the Fed has an integrity problem now

15 months ago they said the rate in mid-2023 would be zero. Now they're saying 4%. Larry Summers says he wouldn't be surprised if it was higher than that.
Has been through two economic drawdowns, has a dividend, and buys back stock, quality management, discount to market valuation - the things Leon Cooperman looks for in current stock market
Josh Brown and Michael Batnick had an investors conference (like 1000 investors and a group total of a couple thou)

Number 1 thing people concerned about is housing. Almost 1/5 of the economy, when you consider building etc, banks etc. It's nothing like 2008 though (everything from creditworthiness to supply/demand looks stronger).

2 years ago housing became the national pastime.

Bid/ask spread now is massive, and the number of homes sold in big cities are down like 40 - 60%. Sellers (who bought a year or two ago during the bubble) are anchored to a price that's not real anymore. However, the selling prices are still up like 20%.

There are 80m homeowners in the US. 5m people are looking for a house. Although the current owners of houses have overwhelmingly good credit, new buyers (rates recently doubled for the first time ever) are maybe shut out of buying a home. So what does that mean if no one can buy a home now (although those who already have them are doing fine)? The number 1 step in building credit for Americans is buying a house.

Renters are seeing 20% increases. Potential for a competing-against-landlords (who have all cash or Wall Street financing) situation. This is different from 2008 also. Institutional buyers (like Blackrock) operate in certain cities a lot, so if they're in that city you could be priced out.
Known brands did well in 2020-2021

Draft Kings, Telsa, Peloton. New investors with RobinHood accounts knew what these companies were and bought their fav companies. Apple.

Cross-messaging

Fedex and Walmart warning. Meanwhile, Ralph Lauren and VISA saying they aren't seeing ANY sign of stress.
Third part collections are very low

Probably the leading edge for an indicator of recession (jobless claims would be one of the last) - Josh Brown

60/40 portfolio is good now, for the first time in 11 years

1-year bonds yield 4%.
Long Term Investors Can Start Buying in This Market

some say
Tom Lee appeared to show signs of flagging his optimism in most recent CNBC interview.

First time I've seen that.
Housing: There’s a ‘huge in-migration’ into ‘lower-cost areas,’ analyst says - YouTube
October 2022
New hires are down, although firings (new jobless claims) remain too strong for inflation to cool

However, some poll said 70% of Americans are seeking secondary work to pay bills. Whatever that means though.
Basically everyone is bearish. I don't hear anyone being bullish now
Housing

Discouraged buyers and affordability challenges.

(2008 was about distressed sellers and foreclosures and the inability to hold onto your property when you went through any kind of job loss ... and THAT was about excessive egregious credit.)

Prices too high with the higher (4%) rates. Prices have dropped in recent months. Even sellers, who after selling have to buy another home, are discouraged from buying.

Before most sale pressure was the outskirts of the cities (remote work ability allowed this). Now it's both, inside and outskirts of the city. Most pressure in affordable units.

Not a good market for flipping (into a softer market, expected). Also not a good market for buying a house you can't afford.


'Apple is a kind of mature company now. It's not going to come out with the next big tech product like it did with the iPhone.' - an investor
Is Amazon more a utility, or more a retailer with shipping?

Headlines this week include Amazon workers striking (has been going on for a while now).
Exclusive: Musk’s SpaceX says it can no longer pay for satellite services in Ukraine | World News - YouTube
Contrary to expectations by lots of people over the past months, subscriptions are not being cut back much.

18% of household budgets is spent on subscriptions services (including products and services like Amazon).

Another surprise is that for a lot of Americans, they see Amazon as a media outlet, not a products and sales site (Amazon buys and deliveries).

Out of the media products (subscriptions) being paid for, dating apps are the one that they're most not satisfied with, so they might get cut. 94% satisfied with TV and streaming, 72% satisfied with dating apps.

Goldman undertaking a big reshuffle.

Maybe because underperforming or having a 'maturity outlook.' To reduce costs, even if it's at the managing director level.

Fed is not going to stop until either something breaks in the Capital Markets and the Fed pivots, OR earnings come down not 2, 3, 4% but rather 10% - Chris Harvey

Something breaks = collapse of a currency, something in Ukraine ...

CPI is the Fed's focus. They need it down. For their credibility, also.

Interest rates, demand, supply chain, are rolling over now, so inflation looks like it might be going to cool. The fundamentals have to come down, and Harvey thinks we'll have a recession.
Netflix beat on top and bottom of earnings, added 2.4m subs

Talk of 'recession-proof,' because 'if you lose your job you need it even more,' Josh Brown quote
Earnings and the state of the economy (US) Q3 2022

Banks seem to be doing quite well. Brands like food and beverage, fashion, mixed results, some citing the recession-type things and others saying they're not seeing any such effect.

Large-cap tech reports will come this week. Bar's already been lowered for Q3.

Caterpillar and Boeing (companies that are outside big cap tech) (bellwether type names) will give an idea about the effect of the strong US dollar and the US economy and what can be / is being purchased.

All the goings-on in China, how hammered Chinese tech stocks have been by the government there.

An investor quoted Jack Ma (I don't know when he said it), "I think among the richest men in China, few have good endings."

If you are a business-owner in China, you are fearful, the investor said. It's not subtle.

Everyone also wants to see what Apple does. Such a revaluation/reset in tech names.

Stock market bottoms before other things in the economy, usually (but we can't say for sure this time).

Dow up 4 straight weeks. Market up this week.

People talking a lot about Is big tech done? Amazon, Facebook, etc, dropped significantly on negative quarterly report.

Big tech was the market leader for years (top 5 in S&P, which is the only index people really consider to be the market, and those 5 make up 20% of the S&P. You could count on them, they consistently put up great numbers, and were almost seen as defensive). Now people are saying they got too big to really grow much anymore, and the markets will now maybe have new leaders. They don't know what that will be, but right now it looks like Industrials.

For locations, developed countries look good say some. Lots of them. Countries with good governance.
Is China no longer going to focus on the Market-Based Economy that had them rise in the world?
India

Dependent-age population smaller than working-age population. Until around 2060.

Did lots of reforms over past 8 years, allow record-high tax collection (small and medium sized enterprises brought in). Can spend on bridges, highways.
Caterpillar had good earnings, and Industrials, Q3 2022
Some say chance of a soft landing is going to be considered more likely

Real world inflation, some say, is falling (although not CPI), and so Fed is close to the end of its action. Meanwhile, employment rate is still 3.5%, spending is strong, spending is up 10% YoY.
Tech stocks, in order to see good performance, need to show corporate benefits, but with these companies the question is not Can they? but rather Do they want to?

They're owned by single people who have controlling shares, and don't need to listen to the market or even their boards. Normal market disciplinary forces don't really apply the same for them.

The owners are so rich that even if the stock goes down 50% they're not too affected personally.

They may have always been like that, but the stocks were going up so no one cared. Now there might be a renewed focus on Corporate Governance and how the governor responds.

Amazon, long ago, was allowed by shareholders to lose money for years, but they explained where they were going.

Emperors of old.

Revenge of the Old Economy - Jeffrey Currie

Due to the Under-investment Thesis. Poor returns / stagnating demand over the previous decade saw capital redirected into the new economy (all that Tech), starving the old economy of funds it needed to grow the supply base, infrastructure aged, creating a lot of the problems we're seeing today.

Oil large cycles last 10 or 12 years in past instances (70s, 02 to 2014).

The revenge of the old economy | Financial Times 2021: "Indeed, the old economy was overbuilt, debt-laden and over-polluted. While the old economy only represents about 35 per cent of global gross domestic product, it generated at least 2 times the corporate losses, had about 90 per cent of the non-financial debt and created 80 per cent of the emissions. It is no wonder why investors preferred Big Tech to oil and copper."
People who had owned Amazon and other Big Tech did so because they thought there was some safety in it, but are now seeing that's not the case.
Which Stocks Might Benefit After Biden Signed The Infrastructure Bill? | Seeking Alpha (If Infrastructure Spending)
 
However, costs of materials and labor.
There's no momentum in the economy, say others.

Yield curve, normalized for the level of rates, it's never been more inverted.

US dollar is so strong, US manufacturing will face a hit due to overseas product that is cheaper.

Last 6 recessions, 4 of them the economy grew 3 or so % right before the downturn.
People talking about Fed going to stop hiking

Market went down below 3800 because, partly, if felt like things were going not that great all over the place. What was going on in the UK, Bank of Japan having to intervene. Credit Suise maybe being insolvent.
November 2022

Unlike US, some other countries don't HAVE demand from Millenials (the main demand source in economies), so can't just raise rates - Zeihan

If they raise too much, it would be their last economic expansion.

"This was always going to be sort of the end of the road for a lot of Asia and East Europe."

So US 6% is like the minimum, because they need a lot of tools for next time.
Economic booms give rise to weird money industries, when interest rates at 0 ('money is free'), past 15 years

Chinese boom, Japanese boom, subprime, crypto (this boom).

Buying a house next year will be with a 9% rate, it's expected

Versus 3% before. That's like a 50% increase in the mortgage payment. - Zeihan
S Korea, 2022

BTS brings $3.6b annually into S Korea

7% of visitors there were motivated by the band

K-drama and other series, films. Food.

160k foreign students in S Korea versus less than 20k in 2003.

What is the effect of their success/popularity on N Korea?

How should S Korea leverage its soft power to get its goals? How can it enhance their national security, economy?



Fed's issue is not that Americans are making more money. It's that they're earnings are going up more than productivity is going up. - Santelli
Jobless claims stayed low. Fed didn't pivot or pause. Waiting for slack in the labor market.
What goes into inflation numbers? Something people have been looking at now - Didn't have to be accurate with it before

Krugman's recent EconEd 2022 lecture

Some things are clearly just volatile prices, and some had been included in core inflation.

If you exclude food and energy, or if you exclude extreme movements, what you basically end up with is housing. Housing is core inflation, 40% of core CPI.

Rent is a lagging indicator. Leases. It can lag way behind when there are big shifts.

Krugman says inflation is 4-7%. Probably 5%.

Inflation expectations for this year are high, but for a few years ahead they're more stable. So an overheated economy. People talk about a coming plunge in inflation.

‘We have enough policy credibility this time that the public has not updated its expectations of future inflation based on recent inflation.’ (As opposed to what had to be done in the 70s, ie create a big unemployment rate, because everyone expected 10% inflation in perpetuity.)

Inflation depends both upon unemployment and expected inflation.

China shipping costs were crazy and are now down almost to pre-pandemic. Supply chain issues have been fading away. Rents on realtor.com appear to have peaked.
Changes in people selling Chinese products to world. It seems Ali Express is not allowing people to sell from them through 3rd party apps as before.

Now, it seems, people need to register for a category of products in China (license for some categories), which cost over $1000 (deposit of 10,000CNY or 30,000CNY seem most common), so the online store can dropship from China. It seems you can still dropship from another country.

Also talk of 'wire transfer' for cash. Because PayPal has a high fee.


From The Compound


Nov 8 catalyst.

Siegel says inflation is basically over, and Fed doesn't need to even do what it's probably going to do, as he's said for around three months

More than 8% is what they're saying inflation is at, but Siegel says it's nowhere near that really.

It's actually negative (not even just at 0). We're in negative core inflation mode, if the Fed uses the right stats. They've been using faulty statistics, he says.

They should use the ACTUAL home and rental price in. The one the Fed uses is lagged.

He thinks they'll probalby go 50 and then announce a pause.


A few signs of slowing inflation. S&P up 5.5% for the day. DOW 3.7%.
What's the difference between bitcoin and the USD?

(If bitcoin is just fake money, with nothing of real value behind it, what is USD?)

$30t economy, full faith in credit, and Federal Reserve is behind the dollar, interest-bearing securities in which you can place your dollar with a relative degree of safety, USD still a very highly-rated credit despite debt to GDP levels. ... Ron Isana.

"It's a real thing." Comprises 65% of global trade. 95% of global exchange transfers. It's a reserve currency (bitcoin isn't, and "doesn't exist in any form except in the minds of those who created it.")

"We've done this a million times in the past, whether it's tulip bulbs, railroad bonds, electronics companies or bad internet companies. The underlying internet was important but a lot of the players like CNGI disappear because they had no functional use case"

Blockchain technology is useful though. (It is the underlying tech, and crypto is the overlay.) Cheaper, frictionless transactions, more secure, transparent.

Market bears (Minard, Weiss) are buying right now

Inflation is coming down, they say. They had been expecting 20% down. They've recently been buying. They haven't said they now think it's a bull market, but that currently, or temporarily perhaps, it's a buying opportunity.

A 'bottoming process' now, or still in a bear market?
How much does the cryto loss take out of the USD abundance, and bring the let's-say 'over' wealth lower?
What won't de-inflate?

Clothing, medical equipment ...


The swings seem strong

When the market goes down, what people say is quite pessimistic, so listening to things on that day you wouldn't expect the market to go up for a very long time, but on days when the market goes up, it seems like no one's really bearish.
FTX grew fast and no one really understood where the money came from

More forensic accountants and less economists and quants, it'd help detect what was going on in countries and companies, said Summers


Gravitas: The impact of Silicon Valley layoffs on Indian Techies - YouTube
Big 5 losing leadership?

Over a process measured in years, not months, as the big tech names in 1999.

People aren't saying the Fed is going to ease up yet (although some are saying they could or should have a while ago), but they are saying a point where the Fed eases up can potentially now be seen.

Tech companies have announced and are laying of thousands of people.

It's been hawky for months and no doves, and now it'll be more mixed, some say.

CNBC talked about getting caught up in the story of these founders, like FTX, like Theranos

"He really created quite an extraordinary persona. I loved the sleeping in the office, the attire, he's playing the part, right? I think If he had been driving around a Lamborghini, people would have been like Wow we really gotta look a little more closely."

"But he's this guy in a T-shirt who can't even comb his hair, and you think, he's gotta be a genius."

"He doesn't care about money, he just seems to care about ..."

"His vision. Strategy."

They also pointed out that investing has been as a group in Silicon Valley. Clubby. Fomo. The biggest investors all in the same deals.

Backing up something that was really supporting something that was supported by nothing.

Compound also talked about this. He was heralded as a boy genius, the adult in the room. He tried 20 of the best investors, including Blackrock, Sequoia.

Why wasn't more diligence done? Even what kind of diligence would have uncovered fraud.

However, there were people who were skeptical of SBF. But when you just got the headlines about him. 'Oh he's just like JP Morgan,' and you just accepted it. Social proof. It was the second biggest, so why shouldn't they have so much money?

He bought the naming rights to the stadium (Super Bowl) and made friends with all the celebrities. Simultaneously he was posturing as, "No, we're the compliant ones. We're the ones that are engaging with lawmakers."

Goldman's de-inflation prediction

Everything going in the right direction, basically.

"We expect core inflation to fall significantly in 2023 for three key reasons," wrote Goldman. " 1) a negative swing in the contribution from supply-constrained goods categories, following supply-chain improvements, 2) a peak in shelter categories reflecting a further rebound in vacancies and a waning boost from reopening and the return to cities, and 3) slower wage growth, reflecting the continuing rebalancing of the labor market."

Inflation due to supply constraints are presently adding 0.6 percentage points to the core PCE, but this will shift to minus 0.4 percentage points towards the end of next year, accounting for nearly half the slowdown in the overall core measure.

"Supply chain disruptions and shipping congestion eased significantly in 2022, and inventories of cars and consumer goods have rebounded from extremely depressed levels. The supply of semiconductors in particular has improved dramatically, with automotive microchip shipments now 42% above 2019. This has already catalyzed a 5% decline in the used car CPI, and we assume another 15% drop in 2023," Goldman explained.

Shelter inflation should peak this spring, Goldman reckons, as recent strong demand for rental properties has already sparked an increase in supply, with 1 million apartments under construction, the biggest pipeline since the mid 1970's.

"Rental vacancies rates are starting to rebound as a result and are likely to return to pre-pandemic rates next year. Additionally, the boost from continuing leases renewing at market rates now appears to be reflected in the monthly pace of shelter inflation, as CPI microdata reveal that it already embeds an acceleration in renewal rent growth to 8% year-on-year. Also, rent inflation for new leases has fallen sharply: we estimate to just +3% annualized last quarter," says Goldman.

Finally, a softer jobs market should suppress wage growth and help reduce service sector inflation by late 2023.

"Labor market rebalancing is already lowering wage growth, particularly in sectors with large declines in the jobs-workers gap such as retail and leisure. We expect year-on-year wage growth to fall by 1.5 percentage points to 4% by late 2023, helping to slow inflation in labor-intensive services categories."

Goldman does note however that the market consensus is for core PCE to fall even lower to 2.7% by late 2023, but reckons this is over optimistic as core services inflation will remain above 4%.

"This reflects a lower but still elevated pace of shelter inflation later in the year, as well as an outright increase in healthcare inflation in part reflecting the largest Medicare fee update in at least 15 years," the bank concludes.

From:



Large tech companies, in addition to laying off workers, are 'puking up large amounts of retail space back onto the market.'
"The dollar is a mood ring telling us about the inflation expectations embedded in the markets."

- Josh Brown
"The week that hero worship died" - Michael Batnik on Musk and other personalities

"Oh Sequoia invested. Blackrock invested." That part is done.

New home inventory building rapidly.

How much high talent is Apple, Google, Facebook hoarding?

In this podcast, an anecdote where someone tried to hire a developer from Apple, but the developer said that even if you paid him more (which would be a lot), he wouldn't leave because at Apple they don't ask him to do anything, so he has a lot of leisure to think about his own future startup.

Samo Burja: Bismarck Analysis and geopolitical uncertainty - YouTube  round 49:00 or so
NY maybe paid $2b in fraudulent payments over past couple years

(What would the total USA number be? Could be a few hundred B, said Sullian.)



UK bond crisis over past few years

What will happen with prices in the next couple years?


Defaults is one of the most trailing things to look at. - Ivelina Green, founder & CEO at Pearlstone Alternative

Owners of companies will do anything before handing over keys to lenders. Rescue financing, support from sponsors, first.

Usually in the past, companies with poor balance sheets, low in cash, cyclical, but this time they haven't really been sold off because there's so little liquidity people know that if they try to sell some of those credits they'll simply push down prices 30 or 40 points and still won't be able to sell risk. So instead people are selling winners.

Exciting for distressed investors (who look at prices based on a 3 or 4 year timeframe), who can buy non-distressed assets at distressed prices.

FRED, Central Bank digital currency, biggest holder of mortgages, Citi, BNU Mellon, US Bank, Wells, etc. France, Switzerland, Singapore cross-border CBDC.

BIS is a private institution overseeing government things. Control over purchases, no cash, government can freeze accounts like Canadian Truckers participation and support. Events can also be faked while backdroors are pushed through. One digital identity mapped across all bank accounts, KYC. Carbon scores, social credit.


People are now spending on their credit cards.


Why people say the Fed is basing its actions off the wrong inflation dataset. Government reports rents as rising because of the lag.


Immigration down to 200k. Used to be like a million legal immigrants. Nobody has labor.



Diplomacy & IR

March 2022
"The number one priority now is for a serious diplomatic initiative that sorts this mess out, by giving Putin something he can present the Russian people with as a victory" - Yanis Varoufakis

"... In exchange for troop withdrawal. That he ceases all hostilities ..."
Berlin's technical university has cut off all academic ties with Russia

What if sanctions were imposed on all US citizens every time the US invaded another country?

This question was raised by BreakThrough News, whose commenters said Americans would probably not think that was fair, since they don't have any say in what their government does.

The sanctions against Russia do not target explicitly citizens but that is who will feel the sanctions.

April 2022
'For 75 years...': India's veiled dig at US, UK during resolution on use of veto power - YouTube 
May 2022
Turkey blocked Sweden and Finland bids to join NATO

Sweden and Finland had a decades-old policy of neutrality that they now seem to want to change.

NATO needs a unanimous vote for new members.

The main reason given by Turkey is that those countries host Kurdish groups the Turkish government deems terrorists.

Diplomats from the two countries are going to Turkey to try diplomacy, but Erdogan publicly said they shouldn't bother to tire themselves, as Turkey won't accept counties that impose sanctions (export bans on Turkey... Sweden halted arms sales to Turkey after Turkish intervention in Syria 3 years ago) on Turkey, because then NATO would cease to be a security organization and start to be a place where reps of terrorist organizations are represented.

June 2022
WTO requires unanimous support from members to pass deals, but in the current global climate it doesn't seem to be able to pass anything

Most recently, India was the sole opposition to a fishing restrictions bill. India pointed to Europe buying of gas from Russia and Biden visiting SA, and how those are justified as 'national interest.'

Recently, India and S Africa wanted vaccine formulas but were denied. Only a couple countries supported them in the WTO.


Saudi crown prince visiting 3 nations

Turkey, Egypt, Jordan.

Currently at the president's palace in Ankara. Apparently, among other things like oil and normalizing relations (media attacks), Turkey's to drop the Kashogi trial in Istanbul. When the journalist was killed Erdogan blamed the highest levels of SA for the killing.
"It has been proven time and again that sanctions are a boomerang and a double-edged sword, to politicize, instrumentalize and weaponize the global economy, and to willfully impose sanctions by taking advantage of one's dominant status ... will only end up hurting one's own interest, as well as the interests of others, and inflict suffering on people around the world." - Xi speaking at BRICS summit

August 2022
Pelosi went to Taiwan

After a week or two of headline news about her possibly going/possibly not/China not wanting her to. US headlines only I read, so I can't say what China's real position was.
September 2022
"Everything Trump said he was going to do Biden is now turning into policy (regarding China)" - Zeihan

Chips, selling tech to one country or the other, not both. Questions about low-quality tech.

China, Zeihan says, is making things uncomfortable for Putin, making him play a subservient or belittled role. We can guess what this means for their ideas about Taiwan.

US, Zeihan says, is demonstrating strength when it comes to actuallySerious issues of national security, even if they have been seen as weak in less vital issues over the past while.
November 2022

India takes charge of G20 Presidency

Law

January 2022

Minister who crafted Canadian Charter suing government for violating it

"I'm the only first minister (of those who drafted the Charter in the early 1980s) left alive who was at that conference and helped draft these freedoms and these rights and the Constitution Act of 1982 itself. And I do this very reluctantly. I've been watching this thing for two years, I've been speaking out about it ... and I've come to the conclusion now that I must as a Canadian and as one of the writers and founders of the Constitution Act of 1982, not only speak about it. I must act about it. I must show Canadians that I'm so concerned as a citizen and as a former first minister ... that I must take action against my own government because they have violated rights that I and others helped craft in 1981-1982." - Brian Peckford

"There is a section in Charter of Rights and Freedoms which allows governments to override these freedoms in unusual circumstance. And I remember this very well when we were crafting the constitution. These unusual circumstances, because of putting it in the constitution, it's not a Federal act or a provincial act, it's in a constitution which is supposed to enshrine permanent values and give glue to the country. So this Section One can only be used, and I remember this well, in times of peril, in times of war and insurrection, or when the State is in peril, when the existence of the State is in peril."

"Even in the extreme circumstance that you try to make Section One apply ... then there are four tests that had to be met in order for it to apply. That means it must be demonstrably justified that what the action is is worthwhile. In other words, some kind of cost-benefit analysis must be done by law, it must be done within reasonable limits, and fourthly and most importantly, all those three must be done within the context of a free and democratic society. And a free and democratic society to me means parliamentary democracy in our country. We have 14 parliaments, and they have all been completely silent. There's no parliamentary committee anywhere in any of those 14 parliaments looking at what's happening to our country. There are the people's representatives."

He said that newspapers in the country, which in the past did carry his letters when he wanted to comment on some public policy, but since he started talking this way, they have not carried his letters, or even acknowledged that they've received his letters.

He noted that lots of news organizations in the country have received money from the government. Over $600m.

His legal team is basing their claim on the freedom of mobility guarantee (since he has to specify something). He commented that in Canada, the second largest country by land mass, freedom of travel was very important. The government has banned travel by plane and train (and sometimes highways, I've heard). "In other words, we can't travel across our own nation."

(He said they also considered freedom of association, and freedom of assembly. "Lots of people and churches were prevented from getting together.") (And there's currently a curfew in Quebec.)

"If us as first ministers had wanted to just have protecting rights and freedoms that could easily be changed, we wouldn't have gone to the constitution. We would have said, 'Just put an act in the Federal parliament, put acts in all the parliaments, and then up to the whim of the political party of the time to change it. We wanted to safeguard it, so it would be beyond the whim of political machinations and therefore could not be changed, only in the most extreme circumstances."

He also noted that the Oaks Test (coming from a Supreme Court case in 1986) about what Section One meant, and [in the current situation] the lower courts have not looked at this test. This is highly unusual because the courts always look to the precedent set by the highest court ... in determining what they will do in their case. The absence of seeing the Oaks test in the lower courts is very troubling and is the other reason we must take this kind of action at this time."

"And this is where I ... come down and say, 'We have to exhaust all of the civilized legal processes that we set up under our constitution. ..."

When asked what the current process was, if not by parliamentary discussion and decision, for the government to take these actions, ever the Charter rights, Peckford said, "Here's where the most insidious part of this equation comes into play. What the governments have done is used, in many cases, existing legislation under which they have the power to make regulation. So they've used existing emergencies, legislation, and inflated it enough or interpreted it in a manner that they can also use in this circumstance and therefore issue additional regulation. And then in other cases, they did not fully explain or have a parliamentary committee look at other amendments when they opened their parliament and closed it within two or three days or a week. In other words, sufficient debate wasn't allowed to understand the repercussions of what they were doing, when they were giving more power to the minister and more power to the public health officer."

He said it was worse than just not allowing debate, "because we had time. One can perhaps relieve or excuse, if one wants to, and say, For the first 90 days, when this thing began, you could make an argument that OK, the government's had to move. But in any rational way if they had used the emergency measures planning that was already in place, they would have moved to protect the vulnerable first. And then did a study on the rest. What else do we need to do in society. What they did is just a cart blanche over all of society without giving second thought to it."

"... not only are the vaccines destructive. More destructive than any vaccine in our history, and that's a scientific fact, they have had time to adjust, and this is where they have not even been nimble."

He discussed that many decisions are made by government based on opinion polling of Canadians in the street, but that the polls were sometimes affected by advertising and (government subsidized legacy media) news, saying "Here they are advertising that you've gotta get vaccinated, on the television, and they're actually even doing ads for children, and trying to talk to children directly through a public ad, so they're feeding off themselves. They're creating enough fear so they'll get the poll they want to get."

"Canadians are very trusting of their government," he noted. (I've also noticed this a lot.)


 
February 2022
US gov now considering disinformation (free speech) as terrorism

MDM (mis-, dis-, and mal-information)

People who spread this could be considered 'threat actors.' If your words could lead to a protest against the gov, and that protest could lead to violence, they could label people who spoke those words domestic terrorists.

Iverson points out that many things that were originally labelled 'misinformation' turned out to be true over the past year or two.

Kim Iversen: FREE SPEECH Now Labeled As Domestic Terrorism By DHS. Working With BIG TECH To Surveil? - YouTube
PM Trudeau invokes 'emergencies act' against truckers

Gives extra powers to police and Fed gov can now freeze bank accounts of the truckers and anyone associated with them (participating in roadblock, funding them), It also means they can revoke insurance on the trucks.

Reportedly, it also expands tax-funded terrorism and money-laundering laws to include crowdfunding websites.

GiveSendGo has ignored an order and given some of the millions raised for the trucker protest (from countries all over).

March 2022
In Brazil, they amended the constitution to guarantee data protection as a fundamental right

The guys on Techlore said they didn't seen anything like that possibly happening in the States for decades. The only thing they could see was if they expanded the Fourth Amendment to include digital property.

Reportedly, Latvia and Czech Republic have made it illegal to support Russia

That basically means Speech.

25% of Latvia is Russians.

Czech said 1-3 years possible for supporting Russia.

Biden issued an executive order on crypto

... and Bitcoin went up. His order was to look into it and come up with what to do about it, it looks like.

It's being seen by many in the asset class as a defining or watershed moment (just because it's getting this kind of attention and treatment, not because there's anything concrete, which of course there's not).

There had been questions about crypto. How to regulate it? Who's going to regulate it? What kind of posture should the US have in terms of competitiveness and innovation in this technology?

People say the markets like certainty, even if sometimes it's something not positive, it's the certainty that the markets react positively to.

What does this mean as a new competitive infrastructure for the US? How does the US stay strong in this industry, while still addressing the risks?

How does the dollar work in this new world? How is it kept safe and sound, so this can grow and flourish?

US dollar competitiveness on the internet is a strategic national issue.

Bipartisan engagement about this issue.

One of the questions is whether the US should do a central bank digital currency.

China has a stable coin, but it has a lot of surveillance in it.

"We saw Chapter 7, the authority given under Chapter 7, being used now as a weapon to route a whole family [Gadafi's], to commit the murders that occurred in the country ... bombs" - Robert Mugabe, President of Zimbabwe at UN General Assembly 67th Session, October 1, 20212

Chapter 7 of NATO to operate in Libya in protection of civilians.

This speech is seeing virality now in light of Ukraine.

Also interesting, it could just be the sources I have in front of me, but it seems Africa / Africans are having more of a voice on Ukraine than I remember them having. Their leader's speeches in places like UN counsels, their increased number of vloggers and bloggers. Also, it might be Africa will be able to argue with a lot of authority, given their experience over the past 100 years.


Lobola (bride price) is now mandatory in Uganda

... with a clause empowering marriage officers to find out whether a bride price was paid. 


April 2022
New Supreme Court justice in US

First black woman, but for many the interesting thing is she was a public defender before.

Taiwan considering harsher chip protection industry laws

Everyone wants to buy chip manufacturers now. Taiwan is concerned China will obtain it's chip tech.

Wion reported Taiwan accounts for 94% of the world's most advanced semi manufacturing capacities.

How can you protect against economic espionage and talent poaching?

An African man who was imprisoned in Guantanamo is suing Canada for allegedly supplying the US with false info about him

He suffered various types of torture and maltreatment in the US torture prison.
June 2022
2 British men, who were fighting in Ukraine against Russia, sentenced to death after surrender during Mariupol battle

Russia calls them foreign mercenaries. It's expected they won't be executed, but will be held as diplomatic tools. Sentenced in Donetsk, Ukraine, occupied by Russian forces. Maybe a prisoner swap.

The men had been in Ukraine since 2017, serving in the army there, reportedly. One has a well-established life there and a Ukrainian wife.

Russia does not follow any international order, some say, and this can be kept in mind. The court is recognized by Russia and no other countries. Western MSM refers to it as a show trial.

The men have 30 days to appeal.

Thailand, which had very strict drug laws, legalized cannabis

People can grow it at home, and can consume it. The government is giving away 1m seedlings. It's being sold in stores.

However, possession of extracts stronger than 0.2% THC are not allowed.

Japan announced up to $2000 and 1 year jail terms for online insults

They already have the law, but it calls for a fine of $75 and no more than 30 days in jail.

An actress killed herself two years ago, and in last days she was sharing some of the insults she had received online. This law change is considered to be related.

Lawmakers added a provision that they would reexamine the law in 3 years, and if the impact was positive it would remain.


Expanding the tax base. Sector is highly unregulated.

Supreme Court strikes NY law (as unconstitutional) that required permits for concealed guns

Before, New Yorkers had to show they had self-defense needs to get the permit.

NY mayor not happy, nor Biden. It affects 40 states, Biden said.

NY can still require people get licenses on condition of things like background checks and mental health records, said an analyst. They can also limit guns in places like overcroweded places, courts, maybe trains.

Getting a gun is the same as before in NY. You still have to go through the same process to get a license. What is different is that anyone who has that license can concealed carry.

Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade

1971 - 1973
August 2022
FBI Searches Trump's Home in Unprecedented Move - YouTube


Eyesbrows raised for: lots going to IRS, so they can do more active work perhaps, lots of government oversight of drug companies, emphasis on climate initiatives when other issues seem to some people more pressing.

$740b, so taxes will be raising, it's been said, during a time when Americans might not want taxes raised.
Mexico arrests former top prosecutor over 2014 missing students case • FRANCE 24 English - YouTube

September 2022

A grocery store (or other private property) can be forced to host speech, according to common law.

SM platforms are different from newspapers because what is published in a newspaper is so because the newspaper made a choice to publish it. It is the newspaper's speech.

SM platforms are primarily conduits.

Parades make choices about who goes in them. This is their first amendment right, so they can discriminate against gays. They can't be forced to make a choice, akin to a newspaper. The parade organizer is more like a newspaper.

Schools can be forced to host military parades, although they can of course speak out against them.

SM have no space considerations. Forcing a newspaper or tv station to publish something means they can't publish something else which means they lose money on that space, and curtails the owners ability to speak in its own form.

The SC has been very clear on protecting from forced affiliation claims. Plus SM platforms can actively say what they want against opinions. Coerced endorsement.

For newspapers or TV or parades, do editorial decisions occur after the speech has occurred or before? After? That is not what an editor does.

SM platforms have constantly said they aren't the speaker. That it isn't their speech. (Section 230.)

Publishers make a decision to repeat something someone else said. Now they're saying it too. Now you're a publisher.

Common Carrier doctrine dates back before US founding, in common law. It vests states with the power to impose nondiscrimination obligations on communication and transportation providers who hold themselves to serve all members of the public without individualized bargaining. (Telegraph invented in 1830 was the first communications service subjected to Common Carrier at the end of the 19th C. Legislators were concerned private entities that controlled this new tech would use their power to manipulate the flow of info to the public when it served their economic or political self-interest. Western Union (the largest) sometimes refused to carry messages from journalists that competed with its ally AP. The first law required them to receive dispatches to and from any individual on the payment of their usual charges to transmit them with impartiality and good faith. And to transmit them in the order they were received.

Phone companies are privileged by law to filter obscene or harassing expression. Spam calling. And they often do. So phone companies aren't quite required to accept all transmissions.
Public transport companies can kick people off their vehicles. They're forced to accept everybody but can be forced to revoke that.

SM is the dominant means of communication (although not exclusive).

Commerce, friendship, family, speech, persuasion, picketing, pamphleting, concerts, protests. There a public interest in the social media communication.
October 2022

Recently some random person posted about the Alex Jones trial, asking what he said that was different from MSM or government agencies.
November 2022

(Teresa Vicente, Phil of Law professor at University of Mercia)


 

And smart glasses.

 

Rent control soon, they say.

Human & Civil Rights

February 2022

Arsenal Consulting

 

... reportedly, for the past 2 years during the Pandemic.


EFF

April 2022
Shanghai residents forced from their apartments so State can use them as temporary quarantine facilities

Videos of this are viral. (A few dozen it looks like) citizens clashing with police (police in white non-contamination suits). Wrestling as the police take away people protesting (I don't think you can even call this 'protesters').

In another video a few dozen people assembled on a street in a protest against the closure of a school to be used as a quarantine facility. Police broke them up and forced them off the streets.

Frustration and anger, leading to violence.

"The Israeli government on this front has not been putting in guardrails. They have been relentlessly realpolitik in making sure this tech gets to whomever they want it to get to to curry favor geopolitically, and not really considering the human rights consequences." - Ronan Farrow (talking about things his sources said)

"[Israel is] the leader in this kind of tech [phone spyware]. And I think one think that has allowed this tech to flourish through several years of scandals about abusive misuse of it, is that policy makers said Well these are companies that are closely entwined with the Israeli government. The Israeli MoD oversees the purchases, the approve the countries to whom for instance NSO Group is selling. So it lent to the proceedings an air of legitimacy."

It is a tool of soft power, helping states get this cyber-offensive spying capability. NYT etc reported recently US helped Djibouti (a military ally) purchase Pegasus. That software was used against Djibouti's PM and civilian officials.

Farrow said that sometimes a government will go to Israel to buy it, and won't be approved, but the Israeli officials will say Hey go to these guys (outside of the official system) and they can give you this capability. Also that there are lots of other countries ready to step in to sell this capability if Israel were not to do so.

Hari on Amanpour pointed out that who Israel sells (is allowed to sell) the software to shows global relations. (They weren't allowed to sell to Ukraine because Ukraine is fighting Russia.)

The industry is supposed to be worth about $16b annually.

May 2022
Microsoft Research guy commented on how if there were a breakthrough in privacy-preserving tech, there would be more use of AI

Applications of AI to things like the huge datasets of medical records are bottlenecked by privacy issues.

Lots of old research that was done, it has since been found that although no one knew it at the time, current tech can see that a person in one research group was the same person as in a different research group.

Didn't know it at the time either, but scans of eyes can be used now to predict with some accuracy various thigns:



Blanket ban on hand guns, with an army of masked supporters behind him on the video image.



How many handgun killings are there in Canada?



Relevant that news has reported that over half of gun deaths in Ontario were from self harm.

This follows the Texas school shooting.
July 2022

Attention and brain waves.

Protesting because of their savings.

One sign read, 'No deposits. No human rights.' Interesting to contrast the impetuses that cause Westerners and Chinese to protest.

August 2022

November 2022

Report: EU democracy is under attack by mercenary spyware | Latest English News | WION - YouTube

Journalism

January 2022
CNN reportedly losing viewers

Fox News doing better.
 
Is CNN really losing viewers though? The numbers are down from the same week a year ago, which was the Capital riot news.
"You can't legislate, judges can't solve these problems, you can't get FOIA requests to get the documents. You need whistle blowers." - James O'Keefe of Project Veritas

"You need people on the inside who are brave enough to jump on a metaphorical grenade."

February 2022
In the West, many vloggers, personalities, and regular commenters basically don't trust MSM at all
 
This is talked about quite a bit these days.
Some funny and interesting headlines for Feb 2022

"Racism" Is the Left's Weapon of War - Michael Knowles

INSIDE Big Pharma: employees say their careers have been made into a lie - Teryn Gregson

Nothing says sedition like beeping your horn - Fox News

Canadian gelato shop owner breaks down crying after threats for donation to truckers - Fox News ... after her shop was doxed

Dr. John Campbell reviews censorship of BMJ and Cochrane on social media

March 2022
EU banned Russia Today and Sputnik media

In the West (or the world?) Russia's main media sites are regarded not really as news but more as of propaganda.

Twitter has made it so you can't search for Russia Today and Sputnik, reportedly

Ukrainian Defense Ministry published a video claiming to be a Ukrainian fighter jet shooting down a Russian one

... This is according to RT.

The footage was from a video game.

RT also said the footage many have shared of Zelinskyy in military dress on the front lines of Kiev, is actually from several months ago during practices.
Funny titles

4Chan attempts to raid Facebooks Metaverse ... [SomeOrdinaryGamers)

Chinese President Xi JinPing is under pressure right now, says former Australian PM [CNBC]

RT and Sputnik have closed some things down, and have been banned from some US/Western platforms

This happened right after the invasion of Ukraine a few weeks ago, but I just watched this interview with Abby Martin who said this:

" RT America was an incredible opportunity to highlight voices like Chris Hedges, consistent anti-war like myself, Lee Camp. And that was unmatched. That platform that RT America gave us was unmatched. Our viewpoints are not allowed on the corporate media. Dissent against empire is not allowed on the corporate media. And that is why we had to go to places like Russia Today, in order to have a platform for these very important and crucial perspectives."

She said the US was looking for a chance to shut down alternative media.


 
April 2022
Funny and interesting headlines this month




2 inmates at women-only NJ prison became pregnant from transgender - FoxNews
May 2022

In the video, the officials are whacking those that are bearing the coffin (ie both hands holding the weight above their shoulders).
November 2022
Funny and interesting headlines lately

For Tech Workers, Pink Slips and Anxiety Replace Perks and Parties | WSJ Wall Street Journal

Information

February 2022
Canadian Freedom Convoy

... is a large group of semi truck drivers who are making their way across Canada, in a protest against the liberties the government has taken against human and civil rights under the banner of Covid measures.

Makes it actually visible, there is an opposition, and gives people an opportunity to partake in this voice. It is a world wide news story. It is also longer term, since it's been in the news for weeks now.

"It can't be ignored," some people noted about it.

Politicians in Canada have reportedly tried focusing on the Confederate Flag and a Swastika (MSM apparently doing a lot of the disparagement work in this), as if people were rallying behind either of those in any meaningful way. And there's reportedly been some political attempts to stop the GoFundMe funding. Or they already froze it, with over $10m raised by 130 or 140k people. Facebook also kicked off the 130k people who subscribed to a group for American truckers to get involved, or something.

Brian Peckford went on Jordan Peterson's podcast to publicly announce his legal challenge to the government's restrictions on Canadians' civil liberties because he didn't think he could get the truth told about what he was doing on ANY other Canadian news outlet, Peterson commented.

Last Friday the police were talking about doing digital tracking, reportedly. And now protesting isn't allowed, I heard.

PM Trudeau apparently will not talk with the truckers.

I would perhaps say, though, that the MSM and politicians in that country have always been like this, and have frequently misrepresented events and news, but that there's never been anything that's happened that any amount of Canadians have cared enough about.

Trudeau publicly called the people protesting a "small fringe minority" "who are hold unacceptable views," although I doubt he would, if given time to think about this statement, really state any views were unacceptable, maybe.

Joe Rogan currently most popular broadcaster in English-speaking world, maybe.

11m people viewing every ep. Some a lot more. Compare with CNN's highest rates show last night with 700k viewers.

He's not politically partisan.

Neil Young made headlines last week for issuing an ultimatum or something to Spotify that it was his music or Rogan, who he said was spreading misinformation (about the pandemic). Spotify picked Rogan. But Spotify has deleted over 20k videos that talk about the pandemic, but made by other podcasters. Spotify said they cause harm. Harry and Megan have a $125m deal with Spotify, and they threatened to leave, opposing Rogan.

Tucker Carlson noted that Whitehouse spokesperson Jen Psaki's recent comments that 'there's more that can be done' was tantamount to something the government's not allowed to do constitutionally, using government power to shut down broadcasters who criticize you. Last week Rogan made a comment about Psaki, who had recently been talking about shutting down misinformation, while SHE distributed misinformation by saying the Pfizer vaccine was approved by the FDA in their gold standard.

There's apparently a US trucker protest now

Lots of people impressed by things they're reading about regular Ukrainians, school teachers, etc and what they've decided to do in the face of the invasion

They've been called 'bad ass' by some Americans. It's thought this might be one of the big aspects in causing European nations to decide to really help Ukraine.

It's been noted that Putin could have used cyber attacks to cut off the internet from Ukraine, but hasn't done anything like that.

March 2022
Ukrainians are constantly glued to TV and internet to get info, but also to confirm it is a true story

Recently some posts went viral showing an air convoy of Russia AF, which was a video from a year or so ago.

Today there is a Russian strike on a Kyiv TV tower, and news presenters in America talking to people in Ukraine, one of the first thing that gets clarified is that, "Yes, this is a true story."

They verify by checking multiple news channels.

Within Russia, on the other hand, it has been said, TV and internet is controlled by the state.

"What bothers me is how superficial and ill-informed the whole Senate debate was. I was particularly bothered by the references to Russia as a country dying to attack Western Europe."

George Kennan, architect of US's successful containment policy of Soviet Union, in 1998, after the senate after under Clinton US started to talk about expanding NATO, contrary to agreements made to the Soviets in 1990 as part of the talks to unify Germany.

"I think it is the beginning of a new Cold War. I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely, and it will affect their policies. I think it was a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else. ..."

"... Of course, there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then the NATO expanders will say that 'We always told you that is how the Russians are ...'"

"NATO expansion was simply a lighthearted action by a Senate that has no real interest in foreign affairs."

US tech giants info-actions against Russia

Without being forced to, they've taken actions against Russia, Russians, and Russian information sources.

Facebook reportedly will allow posts calling for violence against Russia and its president.

Wion asked, "Isn't this criminal? Won't this promote hate? Won't this incite hostility against all Russians?"

Google barred the Russian government from monetizing content. Apple stopped sales in Russia and cut Russia off from the ApplePlay, and has blocked RT and Sputnik outside Russia. Twitter is labeling all posts that are pro-Russian and adding a label on pro-Russian stories.

Wion said that Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Amazon were awarded $44.5b from the DHS and DoD. For aiding the US military, providing them with digital tools that can be used in wars. Including access to databases, cloud computing, surveillance, drone tech and pushing narratives.

Wion also pointed out the revolving door for professionals that work in big tech and then in government. And former government who now are controlling big tech companies.


White House changed a transcript after Harris made a mistake in a speech

Kamala Harris said "The United States stands firmly with the Ukrainian people in defense of the NATO Alliance (applause).

In the official transcript, they added in brackets [and] before "in defense."

White House changes Kamala Harris' 'mistake' in official transcript - YouTube
"I trust random bloggers on the internet more than I do the CDC" - random interviewer on YouTube

... a sentiment I'm hearing a lot. They base this on the epistemic inferiority or conspiracy of government officials in how they handled the pandemic and spoke to the public.

Is having 'moderators' a failed social technology?

Today, I was cancelled from two social media platforms. After questioning a redditor about his statement about a legal topic, and him responding, and me reviewing the case he cited and responding, it seems he just banned me (was not able to comment further - just read 'error' or something).

Then someone posted a news issue saying how much violence there was in the city/state I live in, and I posted stats (literally facts, numbers, putting it in context with the US's cities and states. I received a comment from the platform saying my comment had been removed.

I generally don't post comments on Facebook, but thought I'd contribute today, but after that I see no reason to try to comment on it in the future.

NJ passes law mandating civics class for all middle schoolers

(This happened several months ago. Supposed to be mandatory in 2022/2023 school year)

"The insurrection was alarming to many people and served as a wakeup call that we need to prepare future generations about civics and government." - Sen Shirley Turner (D)

"So maybe 30 years of not having civics, this is what you get." - Arlene Gardner, President of NJ Center for Civic Education, who is developing the curriculum

"One of the areas that we've really started working on is those skills for having a CIVIL discourse when you disagree with people."




June 2022

September 2022

Send me photos and location data, please honey.
November 2022

'Hate speech' disappears as a category. It is just someone else's opinion. Just remove spam and porn.

If you label info as 'false,' you have to prove it's false.
Musk did a Twitter poll to ask if Trump should be reinstated

Then tweeted that the people have spoken, and reinstated Trump's account


Trump reportedly said he preferred to stay on his Truth Social app, and that Twitter had too many bots and fake accounts.

Trump has under 5m followers on both apps.

Technology

February 2022
Framework laptops

Modular laptops, part of the effort by some non-mainstream companies to make laptops as good as the ones from 2010.

The company recently announced they'll be opensourcing their firmware, specifically the code for the embedded controller (power, fans, voltage).

It still doesn't have the ability to install your own BIOS. Many netizens are working on it.

Two other companies doing something like this: System76 and Purism.

Framework | The Framework Laptop is now in stock!
iFixit

A website that has kits for repairing various consumer devices.

Some Western MSM is reporting that hackers (Anonymous) is going after Russia

Not confirmed or anything.

People also say it's likely Russian hackers will target the West.

Musk says his Starlink internet service up and running in Ukraine

... after the Ukraine govt contacted him and asked.

It had been planned to happen in 2023.

You need a dish and router to connect, though.

It's been called by some commentators "a perfect situation for this."

Not an individual level solution, but one that can be controlled by governments, apparently. Also one that Ukraine's government would be indebted for getting.

March 2022
Google location accuracy 3 feet, Facebook 60-90 feet, Snapchat 15 feet

Which are worse for privacy then Apple, according to a recent report, but Apple has a flaw too where iCloud backups compromise users (because passwords are also backed up there), and local backups is a suggested way to deal with this
Sengfor used by companies to monitor employees and provide company with a score for employees that they might quit
SimpleLogin

This service allows you to create multiple email addresses, and they all can forward to your main email inbox. So you can sign up for a newsletter, and then when they start spamming you you can delete that email. They don't have your actual address.
 
Ukraine using Turkish (NATO ally) drones against vehicles in Russian convoy


Russian vehicles don't seem to be using GPS

Founder of DuckDuckGo is 'sickened by ... Ukraine' and is going to start censoring the search engine

... Mental Outlaw called this a 'dark day' for the company.

He tweeted that DDG was going to start downranking disinformation about Russia.

World, you have yet another new arbiter of truth.

Neutrality or political in information? This is an information search engine.

In 2019 the DDG twitter account bragged about how they, unlike the other search engines, had unbiased search results.

Samsung hack released to public

... including Samsung source code, which includes the bootloader, so unlocked Samsungs might start really becoming a thing.

Hack by Lapsus$, who also recently did a large NVIDIA hack.

April 2022

200k cameras in Moscow can identify protesters. Also in Ukraine to identify people killed in the war to tell their families.

There's no control over false positives.

Pulling water from the air with hydropanels - YouTube 
Why should I use Trisquel instead of one of the better-known distributions? | Trisquel GNU/Linux



Triskel OS for Linux. It is 'GNU Linux' Richard Stalman style FOSS-only (everything). No proprietary drivers. No proprietary codex (multimedia things might not work). Really for the free software crowd, not for people who spent a ton on expensive graphics card etc and want the most powerful computer.

32 bit is called trisquel_9.0.2_i686.iso because they stopped supporting 32 bit with Trisquel 10. Old versions are at us.archive.trisquel.info/iso/

There's like 10 of them.
Air Support in a Backpack: The Switchblade - YouTube 


You can import your Google Calendar info with like 3 clicks, reportedly. It's called 'easy switch.'


Musk bought Twitter

I didn't create a new Twitter account. From his first tweet, I didn't feel pulled back for any reason or anything.

Someone wrote: "I’m not worried about the “rich guy who owns #Tesla now owns @Twitter. But I am at least slightly concerned that the guy who owns @neuralink and founded @OpenAI now owns the information graph on 300+ million users."

Perhaps this will shake up social media though, which has been stagnant and widely hated (while being enjoyed) for years and years. We haven't seen any new activity, types of social media, companies, stances toward users and rights, we've just seen new more potent attention-retaining algos like Snapchat and TikTocks viral video streams.

He bought it for $44b (a value of $54.20 per share).

Analyists have said there is no downside to his investment, since the Board has done basically nothing since the 2013 IPO, and unlimited upside.

That he'll attract lots of talent to fix the problems, since everyone wants to work for Musk.

He has said that he wants the most extreme right and extreme left to both be equally unhappy on the platform. That moderates might want to come back.

People don't think Musk will want to be CEO. He has a lot of suits to chose from in his other companies, competent people who will just never become CEO where they are.

Some are saying this will be bad for the Woke movement / people.

Several social media personalities, celebs, athletes expressed they were happy because they'd been shadowbanned or wanted more free speech.

Josh Brown, who left Twitter even though he had a million followers, commented saying big celebrities who've left (Kardashians) aren't coming back. There's no way to bring them back. The bigger your account get the more the experience isn't good. Who wants to open up the app in the morning and see 50 negative things said about them? Some people will stay, people who have very thick skins or basically invite controversy.

Someone tweeted, and Bezos resplied to it, that China may have gained leverage over public discussion, since it can withhold something Tesla needs unless Musk does what it wants on Twitter.

Some have said Don't fool yourself he did it because he sees sure financial gain. This seems unlikely to me. But also reasonable. Some have talked recently about what will happen when Republicans retake the US government. It might happen in 2 years, or in 6, but sometime it will happen. After Biden was elected and Trump was still in office, most BigTech social media, including Twitter, banned President Trump and other Republicans. What do you think will happen to those companies when a Republican is in office again? The actions taken against SM will be at least in name taken for 'freedom of speech.'

Musk may expect this will happen in 2 years, given the unpopularity of Biden. Also, this year is midterms (in November), when all the House faces reelections for their 2-year terms, and lots of the senators. The uncertainty of a midterm year traditionally has a downward effect on markets.

Stock went up 6%. Price per share now is $52.87.


His first tweet after buying it, and a Bezos tweet a little later.




Only use Snap?
Big follower number changes day after Musk bought Twitter

Obama down 300k, Katy Perry down 200k. A Republican congresswoman and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil went up 100k followers.

They said this was caused by organic changes (left wingers leaving platform, right wingers joining).

Musk making some statements in favor of free speech that seem sort of antagonistic to liberals (woke etc)

Is this the best plan to keep an inclusive, pluralistic platform?

#Musk #Twitter
Dorsey tweet:

 
Democrat Howard Dean left Twitter

Jameela Jamil (actress and feminist) left.

NYT colomnist Charles Blow left.
 

Twitter employees are all a-twitter, talking about quitting

Maybe illustrative of something maybe not expected. That it's not just the board of directors responsible for a malfunctioning (or just biased) organization, but, especially after years of use, the users and the workers. It might not be so easy to change and make it inclusive of those same people plus the people who had been excluded by them.
DALL-E


A side-effect of all the DALL-2 posts is you can see who on Twitter works at @OpenAI

May 2022


 




#371 RISC-V: How much is open source? Featuring the new ESP32-C3 - YouTube

His guess is that RISC-V will be successful because it's seen as RISC-V against ARM (monopoly), just as ARM succeeded against INTEL/HP in IoT etc in the 90s. A non-closedSource chip is good for those who want to build their products on top of the chip level.

The RISC-V foundation recently moved to Switzerland (to be more secure or something).


 
WP, Seagate, Huawei and Microchip (Arduino manufacturer) all are customers of ARM and don't like their monopoly.


Costa Rican government received a malware attack and declared a State of Emergency

... disrupting tax collection and exposing citizen data.


Bye bye, DuckDuckGo


'Overall' versus 'ultimately' in language hints.

Currently, Brave is moving to the best search engine (?and browser?), but quantity is the solution in any marketplace.
This Is The Worst Microsoft Office Virus I've Ever Seen - YouTube 
June 2022
UK bought order of drones from Chinese company DJI, first public purchase since US blacklisted the company for sales in the US in 2020 (US said the company posed a potential national security threat)

15k distance range. 55min use. Temperatures -20 to plus 50.

Report: TikTok leak suggests users data not private | International News | English News | WION - YouTube 
Australian scientist researching soft coral bleaching

If you try to protect everything, you run out of resources (money, people). So you need to know specifically which species you need to protect, and which species will be fine nomatter what we do.

They blend the coral, then use a centrifuge to separate the animal cells from the proteins. Then they can see how much protein, algae, chlorophyll are in the coral.


With a device that captures the data sent from a keyless fob to a car. If there's a pushbutton start, they can also start the vehicle.

Owners are advised to keep their fobs in tin cans or special devices to prevent signals (which doesn't, however, protect while the owner is actually using the device).
Apple's Airtag technology backfires with incidents of murder and stalking being reported | WION - YouTube 
A Google engineer stated that Lamda (chatbot) was sentient

It was in headlines all over. Google I think put him on suspension.

It didn't seem from the chat that Lamda WAS sentient to me. He went along with the prompts of the engineer and said he was sentient and elaborated. Mental Outlaw pointed out that the engineer didn't challenge the chatbot on the question, and supposed that if the engineer had been like, "You're not sentient you're an AI" the chatbot would have gone along with that and agreed (not that a chatbot would definitely even know if it WAS sentient or not, and not that a chatbot can't be sentient just because it's also a bot).

The question, though, is if AI is sentient, must we then treat it differently, ie as we would any sentient being? How can we know if an AI IS sentient?

Tesla banned from some places in China

Upcoming CCP meeting and they're banned from the island for 2 months. When Xi visits some places, they're also banned. Government locations (like military) Teslas can't enter. Government workers (some?) aren't permitted to drive in Teslas.

Reason: National Security
July 2022

Rustdesk an 'opensource' (not really) Teamviewer / Anydesk alternative

It has closed source parts in the software though, so some have already started to say it's not really.

August 2022


Tech Talk: The recent blocking of the VLC Media player | International News | WION - YouTube
NSO co-founder and CEO Shalev Hulio steps down; group facing legal action | WION - YouTube
Tech Talk: Popular apps capable of collecting private information on iPhones | WION - YouTube
September 2022
AI Generated Artwork Takes First Place in Art Contest - YouTube
Nvidia, AMD stocks fall on U.S. orders to cease all sales of key AI chips to China - YouTube

Lots of 11, 12, 13 year olds.

Others say the manufacturers made cars that are too easy to steal.
Uber Has Been Hacked - YouTube 

Access to all sensitive info
[ML News] Stable Diffusion Takes Over! (Open Source AI Art) - YouTube
October 2022
Is gaming the gateway to the Metaverse?
High end semis: Taiwan, Korea, Japan, US. All are designed in US, Japan, etc.

Mid-range (aerospace, automotive, thermostat control): Malaysia, Thailand.

New restrictions mean China can't import these without a special dispensation. China can't anymore buy the tools to make the high-grade (so they never reach that level). Method: requiring export licenses to send semis to China. Biden is using the Foreign Direct Product Rule (first used under Trump versus Huawei. ... Chinese plans for technological self-sufficiency.

Lower-range (watch, IOT, calculator): Chinese made.

China might be melon-scooped out of the semi business, said Zeihan.

Zeihan said "We're not at the end of Chinese technological rise." Counter-argument, please.

 
UK has a new National Security and Investment Act, which it used against a company that sold to a Chinese company (which started selling all it's products to it's new owner), causing the UK to fear a tech transfer from UK to China. (Newport Wafer Fab sold to Wingtech.(

A semi factory costs $15 - 30b to construct.

They must be build low (below surface) and kept dust-free.


US still holds many of the global patents used in solar panels (developed by Bell in the 1950s). Chinese government subsidized their tech manufacturers in order to out-compete US in price.

Mosquito drone, drone nesting, warflying, packet perching, cloudstrike, net shelling.

Is PayPal About to Go Bankrupt? – The Daily Sceptic

Ethics in government decision-making. ... Public interest. ... "Incumbencies writing the laws." ... 2021 National Defense Authorization Act.

November 2022
Russian government asked tech department what the best replacement for Windows would be

All 3 suggestions are Linux (because what else could it be, since there is nothing else?). Astra Linux, Alt OS, and Red OS.

Russia didn't seem to even want to switch from Windows, but Microsoft has pulled out of Russia and stopped shipping to there, and stopped security updates and blocking access to Windows installation files.

China has its own linux, called Kailin Linux.
Dalle-2 search frequency


Signal Is Losing It's Way - YouTube

Control data collection on millions of users, and control information algo if they so chose.


Musk stated an ultimatum, commit to work hardcore long hours by Friday or quit. Hundreds quit.

How many of these walkouts just were workers who didn't want to work harder?


 

Question: Wouldn't all Western countries leave the internet if it was created by another country?

Map of countries that did internet blackouts to stop protesters et al from communicating




And a different story:

Apple SUED for privacy violations; iOS collects invasive analytics even if you opt out. - YouTube 
In legacy Big Tech (Facebook, Tesla), the vision means less and there's less premium from the founder, maybe

Bill George said he thinks Zuckerburg might be tired. A year ago he changed the name of the company, which George thought might mean he was abandoning Facebook, and that Zuckerburg should hire a CEO and Zuckerburg could go be chair and chief creative officer in and focus on VR. He's spending $10b per year.

"Someone has to restore [Facebook and Instagram], and if someone doesn't set some standards for the companies (both Musk and Zuckerburg), we're going to have forced regulations, which no one wants."

The founders were seen as 'visionaries'. Not necessarily 'competent CEOs.'



Science

February 2022
PRMs - Human humoral fluid-phase pattern recognition molecules

Recognition and inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 by humoral innate immunity pattern recognition molecules

Nature

April 2022
DALL-E makes VW Beetles similar to the Beetle

"Is there something about the design of the Beetle that even variations look similar?" asked Bakz T. Future.

 
August 2022
Drought threatens major (shipping) rivers in Europe, DW reported

#Europe
Gravitas: China's largest river Yangtze has dried up - YouTube

Health

January 2022
We didn't have a discussion that says 'Where is the threshold?'

... 'We all agree, right? that there are circumstances so dangerous that your normal instincts should be put on hold. That if the ship is sinking, then that is the priority.

'What we have not discussed is, OK, at least the initial variants of Covid were worse than the flu. How much worse than the flu does something have to be before you turn society upside down? Before you allow small businesses to be destroyed and all of that wealth transferred to their gigantic competitors?' - Bret Weinstean

February 2022
Data now shows natural immunity about the same as natural immunity plus vaccines

(the two bottom lines, which basically overlie each other (not the middle line which is just a bit above the bottom two):)


Politicians have shifted to saying 'get vaccines to prevent infection' to 'get vaccines because they lessen severe symptoms'


Dr John Campbell: Myocarditis after vaccination, firm data - YouTube
Most children now have natural immunity - YouTube  
Israeli study makes mainstream the already-known correlation between vitamin D and infection severity

14x risk of a severe infection if a person has deficient vitamin D level. According to another study from April 2020, risk of death from Covid 10x when the person has deficient vitamin D.

Yet not talked about by governments. Only vaccines.



Ivor Cummins comments that high vitamin D levels (or even adequate) is not just about taking lots of vitamin D pills, but rather is about eating an actually healthy diet of good foods, and also getting sun (up to a light pinkness not burning skin). But vitamin D pills are helpful in raising vitamin D levels, obviously.

Cummins says a comfortable level of vitamin D that makes for a decent immune system function is around at least 30ng/ml.

People used to have better vitamin D levels than now, according to Cummins. The percentage of vitaminD-deficient white people basically halved to 30% and black people went form like 10% to like 2% (melanin versus sun to produce vitamin D) between like 1991 and like 2002. Mexicans and other tawny people are in between whites and blacks.

D3 half-life (from vitamin D pills or from sun) is a day or two. Ie daily routine is important for vitamin D (you can't just superboost it one per week or something and expect results that will work every day in between these superboosts). When you eat the pills, it goes to your liver to be converted to the active metabolite 25-OHD. For a vitamin D-deficient person, they might need 5000 - 10,000 IU of the vitamin pills per day.



 
Cases of Omicron variant rising in New Zealand



Woman cured of HIV

... third person ever. First woman.

14 months since being cured without symptoms.


March 2022
Pfizer documents have been made public (UPDATE: This research paper has been withdrawn and reports have it that the report is 'flawed,' so the following is not solid information. Keeping it here and we'll see what happens with this later.)

... although some parts seem to be redacted (removed from the document).

It was made public finally now, it seems, by court order, after a FOI request by a group called the Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency.

The data covered a 3-month (at most) period, early on in the vaccine between Dec 1 2020 and Feb 28 2021.

In that time, there was 42k cases of adverse affects (25k medically confirmed and 16k not). 42k out of how many doses given we don't know, because that figure seems to be redacted. The document says, "It is estimated that approximately (b) (4) doses of BNT162b2 were shipped worldwide" in that 3 month period. So without that number, we can't figure out a percentage of people who had adverse affects to vaccines.

There were 1200 fatalities in that period resulting form the vaccine, according to the document.

The documents are not new. The last data in it is form like Feb 2021. The report was published on Aug 2021 (but the people in the company would have had access to the data from the time it was complete, like Feb 21).

Campbell asked why this information wasn't published before. It is health information, he noted. We weren't able to weigh the effectiveness of the vaccine when we were considering it, but could have done so better if these documents had been available, he said.

If we had been aware of the long (several pages) list of medical conditions resulting from the vaccine, hospital staff could have kept an eye for them to better treat them, Campbell noted.

Currently, many people (and MSM) are preoccupied with the war in Ukraine). Doesn't seem MSM is going to make much of this story.

Campbell referenced Hippocrates, "First do no wrong." He said he thinks this has destroyed the people's trust in authorities.



Commercialization of academia, failed regulation, corporate interests, corruption.


Africa, High natural Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, 65% end of 2021 (very variable, for example high in cities while low in the countryside).

Not by means of any 'great coordinated global effort to give people vaccines.'

April 2022

"Let's review the Israeli study published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) recording that the efficacy of the 4th vaccine dose dwindles within 4 weeks. This efficacy reduces to 10% within 8 weeks."




How CDC's Vaccine Safety Missed Cases of Myocarditis | ID doc Dr. Katie Sharff discusses new study - YouTube
Watch knee replacement using the MAKO Robotic arm - YouTube 

250k deaths in Africa (1.4b people) reported. In US, 1m (340m people). Note that this data is not great. Reporting is one thing, and another is that many countries, including the US, include any death where the person had Covid at the time as a Covid death (which has been criticized by doctors and others).

Vaccines produced by the West were not shipped to the global south, and were sometimes shipped after becoming expired.

3/4 of the 6b doses globally went to 10 countries. Those countries gave their citizens 3rd and 4th doses (of tax subsidized vaccines) while not giving the other poorer countries even one dose.

2nacheki said the pandemic has been racial.


Transmissible infection catchup

There is currently a noticeable increase in hepatitis among children in UK and other areas. Significant percentage of them had had liver transplants (only done when needed in children). Reportedly, at least two of them had had contact, so the cause (unknown) is possibly contagious.

It's not the first instance of higher infection rates this year. One cause is lockdown measures, which kept people from being exposed to the regular number of things, so these things are now playing catchup, it has been said.

What is the effect of this in terms of how when less people are susceptible, an infectious disease travels less far whereas if less people are resistant the disease could travel further and faster? Is the net effect of the disease equal, greater or less?

The drug FDA professionals resigned over, right?



Comments on vaccine ads
 
(insert video later)



May 2022

Calls increase after the first second, and other vaccinations for people under 40.


Bill Gates published a book called "How to prevent the next pandemic"

Dr John Campbell pointed out, If it really is how people can save their and others lives, why is Gates, one of the richest people there is, selling it for $25 a pop? Dr John Camplbell has free pdfs of his books.

Short on money?

Baby formula shortage in US

A big plant (Abbot in Michigan) was put on pause by the FDA. After some reports of infection after babies ate certain baby formulas.

Baby formula is the most regulated food.

Some have talked about how we may have a strategic security stockpile of energy, but not of food.

You can make your own formula, but just be careful.

For babies age 0-3 months:

-(non-fat free) evaporated milk: 1 can of formula to 4 of water
-Boil to homogenize

That's it. But you can also add (sold as liquid form) vitamins.

Store in the fridge and use for 24 hours. Not more than 24 hours (dispose of it), because it will start to grow mold/bacteria.

For babies aged 3-6 months:

-1 can of evaporated milk to 3 cans of water. (ie less water)

For babies aged 6-9 months:

-1 can of evaporated milk to 2 cans of water

9 - 12 months:

-1 can of evaporated milk to 1 can of water

ALWAYS boiling to hemogenize. ALWAYS dispose of it after 24 hours.

Cause to feel uncomfortable?

June 2022








July 2022
In the 1960s, less than a percent of the German population was diabetic. Now it's 10%.
 
August 2022


Idiocy reversed?
 
October 2022
Doctor on FDA Vaccine Advisory Committee disagree with COVID booster guidance - YouTube

"Pfizer Inc expects to roughly quadruple vaccine price,to about $110 to $130 per dose,after the United States government's current purchase program expires"

China has severe measures. Still doing lockdowns. Yet, Campbell raises the question, although they have the capacity to do mRNA vaccines, they have opted not to. Why?

November 2022


Lots of well-meaning, rushed steps regretted here.

2 years 9 months since Feb 2020.

Relative risk versus absolute risk highlighted (95% protection had been announced, 1% absolute).

Crime

April 2022
Kidnapping ransom scam

You get a call, and a female actress says "Dad, help me!" and the dad might say his daughters name ("Is that you, Mary?") and then they have the daughter's name.

Or they might get the name and some other info from social media.

They're probably not using this yet, because it's not tech that's so easily available, but be aware that DeepFake calls/videos can do this sort of thing, too. This is especially a risk if you or your loved one posts a lot of videos with them talking on social media. Henry from Techlore noted that this could even just become an automated thing one day after a data breach of phone numbers.

Hackers are now obtaining emails and contact stuff from PDs and gov offices, then using those to contact ISPs, tech giants, social media companies, with a fake "emergency data request."

The companies being contacted often comply. They say the matter can't wait for a court order because it relates to an urgent matter of life and death.

Police are allowed to bypass the need for a warrant if there's some urgent need.
US-Mexico border: More US citizen teens being used to transport migrants because they're minors and not likely to face legal consequences

They can make hundreds of dollars per run.

Authorities say they saw a rise in teens doing this work in 2021. They also say that the transporters know that if they drive fast enough the authorities will not pursue.

People don't want to give these young people a record that might prevent them from being able to join the army or get certain jobs (especially if they are poor, it was said).


May 2022
Catalytic converters being stolen from parked cars in US

They saw the catalytic converters off (filled with platinum, rhodium, and palladium) by sliding underneath the vehicle.

Fixing them costs about $1500 on some vehicles. To protect against this, people are covering them with metal grills.

A guy used Apple Airtags under the cars he wanted to target so he could track where they park. He used security cameras to avoid apprehension.

He found a loophole to sell more than the usual limit of 1 per day per scrap yard. He formed company with the Secretary of State's office, so he could sell as many as he wanted and without proving ownership.
7 wounded in Vegas biker gangs freeway shooting, police say - ABC News 
July 2022


First use of term 'climate criminals' for celebs I've heard.
August 2022
Two judges ordered to pay $200M to victims of 'kids for cash' scheme - YouTube
November 2022

Lots of people talking about these new couple ways to hack / scam phones and accounts (like bank accounts).

Prevention: never tell anyone your email address you use for those accounts, have a phone number you use for them which no one knows, don't publish any information about yourself on social media so people can't just look you up and get it, never let your phone or computer be touched by anyone else ever, and never put anything in your computer (flash card, SD card) which has been out of your sight ever. You can also change your phone number frequently. You perhaps should change it when a spouse becomes an ex, or a friend becomes not a friend. Never click on links on any message sent to you ever, even if it's a job offer or a friend saying it's urgent. Don't open attachments either. (You can also check the domain in any link and the domain in the email very carefully, and know what you're looking for). Since you can't run a cursor over a linked text on phones (and on desktop you might accidentally click it when you hover over it) all email services should auto-print all links as the actual link).

Culture

April 2022
Over Easter weekend in Sweden, there were reportedly some public Quran burnings

Is this just the 'get used to it' phase of Muslims living in contemporary Europe?
Seen on Facebook



 

May 2022

Will YouTubers become the most hated profession?
Toxic Positivity | Hacker News 
Jordan Peterson now has 5m subs on YT
June 2022
WWE CEO McMahon steps aside during misconduct investigation - YouTube 
85% of Americans age 13-38 want to be social media influences

... according to Yahoo Finance.

"People want short, engaging content. They want to get value immediately, whether it is through entertainment, through education, through something relatable or sharable." According to Cassey Ho, who also posts a lot of videos showing how tight shorts fit her, in a way most women don't show publicly.



August 2022

Alcohol contribution to Japan's revenue in 1980 was 5%. Now it's 1.7%.
 
Work-from-home has exacerbated the non-drinking.
Team of archaeologists come across exciting discovery, site indicates home of St. Peter - YouTube
September 2022

Breivik attacks were 2011. 11 years ago.

October 2022

Sporty cars in Togo often cost double the actual cost (import). A similar problem in many smaller countries, or countries with more independent-oriented public workers or culture.
November 2022
"That disconnect (under Obama) is ultimately what broke trust in government. The fact that we didn't engage for 8 years." - Zeihan, relating Obama's inexperience / disinterest in management of the expansive government apparatus with the election of Trump.
Douyin makeup in China
First seen use of 'womansplaining'

Womansplaining exists, whether you believe it or not. : unpopularopinion

People

January 2022
Mexican president Andres Obrador had sent a letter to Trump before Trump's term was over, saying he should pardon Assange

Obrador got no response.

Now, it is reported Obrador has made statements saying something like he would offer Assange asylum in Mexico.

This is all according to things Obrador said publicly.

February 2022
Valieva at Beijing Winter Olympics lands a historic quadruple jump

... first time a woman does it. Some in the past have even said that due to women's bodies they couldn't. She's 15, and was expected to win the Gold, but tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs, or something like that.


March 2022
Sometimes people are making anti-suicide statements

John McAfee did this a while ago, I guess when he first started to become concerned he would be 'suicided,' as people are calling it (coining a verb the way we coined 'disappeared' for what happens frequently in China and like Russia).

He had made a video statement, where he said he was not suicidal and he wouldn't be, and expressed his reasons why not, and said if he was ever reported to have committed suicide, it would be false.

But this year I've seen another person, a YouTuber, make a similar statement. And whenever YouTubers blog on controversial issues, many of the comments ask or mention this possibility for them.

April 2022
Musk bought like 10% of Twitter stock

Stock rose 25%. It went down a bit in the following days, but is still up significantly.

A few days earlier he engaged with the public on his Twitter, asking about if Twitter respects democracy and stuff and what should be done, and people wondered if he might buy a majority in Twitter for a few billion.

A few days after buying his 10% in stoc, he offered to buy all of Twitter for like $40b or something. It wasn't accepted. News is discussing it.

Musk tweeted "Love me tender" with music notes

People think he'll make a tender offer. He has to show he has sufficient funds, though. There are no competing offers, so analysts say if he has the money he'll own Twitter.

June 2022

Is the UK still a country? Can we still consider it to be one?
 
July 2022
People not liking Elon

So he agreed to buy Twitter and now, after weeks of 'show me how many bots,' he's not going to buy it. Twitter is taking him to Delaware court to make him buy / pay a fine (capped at $1b someone said), and their case is strong.

However, the Delaware Chancery Courts people have reportedly said they are concerned that even if they rule, Elon might just say nope not paying, and that reflects bad on them as an authority. Also, it's an extreme measure to make someone buy something they don't want to buy, although they have forced people to do so, but for like $500m not for like $20b.

What people were talking bad about was that people can get so powerful and rich, no one wants to go after them. They're just like nope I can't get involved with that guy. That it's sort of 'flouting the institutions' of the country.

October 2022
Adidas latest to drop Kanye

Kanye "Ye" is now worth $400m on paper, according to Forbes. Used to be like 1.3b.

Racism as bad business. Jewish, black. Posting (basically doxing) pictures of CEOs on his 60m-follower Insta.

Josh Brown thinks next they'll ask Why his music is still on Spotify? What is the responsibility of Apple, Spotify, YouTube? A few days later Brown said that had happened, and his next prediction was that the backlash against taking down his music would be harsher than leaving it, because, like other artists in the past who've received backlash for their (racist or otherwise) statements (Mel Gibson, I forget the others), people don't want their artistic works removed. They want to enjoy them.

#Kanye


He was a guest on Fridman the other day, too, and got into an emotional exchange.


November 2022



Interesting.

Products

May 2022

June 2022
Shein, growing fashion brand

Shein launches 3,000 to 4,000 new (fast fashion) female apparel products every day, reportedly. $2 to $30 per item.

Their product line is updated much faster than any other fashion brand (Zara, ASOS, H&M).

Shien is valued at $100b, more than H&M and Zara combined. However, H&M did $24b and Zara $19b last year, and Shein did $10.

They're private and don't give interviews. The CEO has only been seen a couple times.

They say they were founded in 2012, but others say in 2008 with Dianwei (knock offs and stuff, reportedly). So they developed along with mass adoption of smart phones (helps with product discovery). Also collected user info, algos, and the continuing development of Chinese manufacturing and distribution, as well as China-friendly global community.
Shein within China doesn't have the advantage it has over other world brands in the global market, because China is a more saturated market. It can't compete for speed and price like it does against the US.

Shein also made timely payments to suppliers (a rarity in China, reportedly) made it able to get smaller production orders. Small order, quick response. 100 to 500 items as the first batch (3 to 5 days), versus Zara's 100k items. No middle man or import tariffs because they're shipped straight from China to customers (not to retail chains).

Shein pays quite a bit for marketing. It pays influencers and celebs. They do a thing called a 'haul,' in which a tik-toker or instagramer buys/receives a big box, like $500 or $2000 worth, and they try it all on and stuff. This goes viral and creates its own marketing campaign. It's an algo that works through influencers and young women.

Shein was the #1 downloaded shopping app in 2021.

Shein's growth has recently slowed with the China city lockdowns.

Several independent fashion designers have gone on social media alleging Shein has knocked off their design to the tee. Exactly the same, and they sell the things for way less. Doc Marten's and Levi Strauss have sued them. I think to do this you have to be registered in China.

Shein contracts a lot of work to small factories and there are workers who are not in the social welfare system there, whatever the relevance of that is. This is the key to cheap, fast products like this. It's simply finding ways to pay workers less than other places.

An issue lots of people talk about with these fast fashion mass sales brands is waste. 100m tonnes of clothing are dumped in landfills every year now. These products are made to be used once or several times, and they are not good for a second-hand market (for example, a lot of first world used clothing is sent to Africa, and it still is, but they say the fast fashion stuff is not useable, it's basically garbage shipped to them).

Producing textiles is energy intensive, and is often done where there are less regulations which consider the environment. It's been interesting as an example of how the young generation, which has been perceived as more environmentally conscious and critical of past generations waste, doesn't really care because they seem to prefer the less expensive product regardless, because it's what they can more easily afford.

2 months into the Swatch/Omega MoonSwatch

Huge lineups outside shops. Limit of purchase to 2, then to just 1.

The watch costs $300.

The product launch has been compared with an Apple product release.

Was it all just due to herd mentality? Was it because they could finally afford an Omega? Was it their first Omega? Did it happen through word of mouth or social media advertising or for resale on the grey market? There are thousands listed on eBay now for $350 to $1000. One was sold for $8000, it seems. Swatch only sells their watches at select stores, it's doesn't seem to want to sell online.

Omega fans, some asked to have their names taken off list after this collab. It's not really exclusive now.

Omega is owned by Swatch, and some have said Omega had to comply although they weren't for it. Does the move do justice to the Omega brand? Omega is known for quality movements, and the new watch is a return to quartz. It's plastic (bioceramic), not metal. It's been said to have a cheap, light feel. The dye runs, reportedly.

People are wearing it as a fun, affordable accessory. It's high fashion. It's trendy. They're exclusive again because their production is limited and prices are bidded up.

There's no knowing where the future of a launch like this goes. The thing can easily be replicated.


Some fashion fans say high fashion brands are collabing with much cheaper brands

... and they don't know why.

Balenciaga, Gucci, Prada have all collabed with Adidas. Miu Miu with New Balance. Givenchy with Disney. GAP with Jeezy and Balenziaga.

Jersey $1750 (Adidas/Gucci) (Actually the figure is for pounds but I don't have that key)
Shorts $1250
Bag $3100
Sneakers $650

Gucci shorts are $600. Half.
LVMH owns the most high fashion brands

It revenues $55b per year. Karans, the second biggest, makes a quarter of that. But Kering's strategy is to own top tier brands. Gucci is the 'most popular' among genZ and TikTok. YSL and Balenciaga are also SM favorites.



Karen's:

Gucci's 'blitzkreig strategy of putting their brand on things and charging thousands for everyday items of a large variety of sorts, including baby clothes and skateboards. They sell to cheaper wholesalers department stores and and outlets where people can buy their products for less (they cross out the $1599 and put $800), in addition to their almost 500 shops where the staff sometimes wear white gloves. They sell the items that haven't changed for decades to some customers and other products to people who want the brand but also want something trendy they can wear. They capitalize on trends. New products account for 30% of their business. They do lots of licensing.

55% of their customers are 35 or younger. Gucci invests like 12% of it's budget or something in advertising.



YSL is a mid-price range, conservative company that sells their black bags with big YSL logos and other products, and doesn't change their products much.

Another brand is Hermes, who never advertises, never sold online, or even displayed publicly, and  and they're 'more lucrative and successful' than Gucci. They sell to their list of the highest spending customers. It takes no pre-orders or waiting lists, and doesn't expand inventory or scale production. Not everyone can buy their products. Their products appreciate value. They have no returns. They manufacture products by hand in France, where they have 45 factories (85% of products). Each bag is made by a single craftsman (after extensive training) in France. A craftsman makes 2-4 bags per week. They're independent. They gross close to what Gucci does. They have 306 stores. 75 in Europe (13 in France), 45 in the Americas (29 in the US), 95 in Asia (29 in Japan), and 6 in Oceania. Their star product is their handbags, which sell for $10,000s to $100,000s. You get to buy their bags by being a regular in their stores and buying their shoes and other products, and after they spend a lot they're offered a chance to buy a bag. The customer is one day notified and taken to a room in the back. Some people buy the 1-3 bags they're shown even if they don't really want them to demonstrate loyalty and stay on the list. Their bags are constantly resold and appreciate 15% per year.
November 2022



EVs are not reliable currently, due to them being a new manufacture.

Big Tech

March 2022
David Beckham handed his Insta account (70m followers) over to a Kharkiv doctor, a child anesthesiologist

The doctor is named Irina (last name not provided).
April 2022
YouTube Has Blacklisted My Channel - YouTube 
October 2022

To be a private company now (was public and subject to the market).

He said he bought it not to make money but because a digital town square was useful to us.

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